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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The main loser from the MidTerms looks set to be “Big Pharma”

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited November 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The main loser from the MidTerms looks set to be “Big Pharma”

One of the things we take for granted in the UK is the cost of our prescription medications. This is all part of the NHS and the majority of patients are too young/old or have chronic conditions which mean that they don’t pay.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • notmenotme Posts: 2,985
    edited November 8
    “Big pharma”. The language of Chem Trail lunatics, anti vaccinators and college campus denounciations of neoliberalism.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,845
    edited November 8
    Checks only share held outright: GSK.L 1,562.20 GBX +30.80 (2.01%)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,238
    The issue isn't the pharmaceutical companies it is the broken US medical system. Allowing health programs to use their buying power seems a reasonable first step.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,677
    edited November 8
    notme said:

    “Big pharma”. The language of Chem Trail lunatics, anti vaccinators and college campus denounciations of neoliberalism.

    I am none of those, but you don’t have to be to think that the whole American healthcare sector is a conspiracy against the patient. Doctors and surgeons with their extravagant pay are part of the problem too.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,664
    American healthcare has been captured by the producer interest. It has also captured the politicians, however, so I am sceptical whether this will result in too much of a realignment of interests in favour of patients.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,734
    Trump will say he will do something about it, unless and until they make large donations to his re-election campaign.
    At which point he will accuse the Democrats of socialist interference in the free market. (Even though restrictions on purchasers combining to use their power to drive down prices is somewhat antithetical to the free market).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,127

    The issue isn't the pharmaceutical companies it is the broken US medical system. Allowing health programs to use their buying power seems a reasonable first step.

    Prohibiting it just seems bizarre.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,695
    "The Democrats have promised to take action and Mr.Trump is also saying the same."

    I think it's rather optimistic to conclude from that that something will actually happen. This is going to be a very confrontational period in US politics, with healthcare one of the battlegrounds, and there's also the obstacle of the Senate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,203

    The issue isn't the pharmaceutical companies it is the broken US medical system. Allowing health programs to use their buying power seems a reasonable first step.

    Yep.
    Prescription drugs account for somewhere around 10% of US healthcare spending. Assuming a hugely over-ambitious 50% cut, it would barely make a dent in healthcare costs (though clearly would make a big difference in individual cases).

    Healthcare in the US is a mess, and addressing that systematically would deal with the drug pricing problem at the same time. Won't happen, of course, and pharmas are a relatively easy target.

    The unintended consequence would quite likely be the acceleration of the current slow migration of drug development to Asia.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    FPT: Mr. B, not sure I agree. Ricciardo has proven low reliability. It's a clear pattern, as per Hamilton in 2016 (but worse).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,203
    "It is clear that something will happen..."

    It's not entirely clear at all.
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/07/trump-democrats-2018-elections-midterms-972254
    Trump insisted that cooperation on policy cannot be done “simultaneously” with vigorous investigations. “Somebody says, ‘Oh, you can do ‘em both.’ No, you can’t,” he said. “Because if they’re doing that, we’re not doing the other, just so you understand. So we won’t be doing that.”

    The message seemed to preview White House plans to use Democrats as a handy foil for Trump as he positions himself for his 2020 re-election campaign.

    One former White House staffer laughed hysterically Wednesday morning when asked about Trump’s pro-Pelosi comment, suggesting his calls for bipartisanship are pretend.

    “He’s totally trolling,”
    this person said, adding that Trump is “on war footing” now that election night has passed and he’s faced with the reality of a Democratic House majority “that was elected solely to pare down his presidency...


    I have no doubt he plans to blame any failure to act on Democrat obstruction.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,203

    FPT: Mr. B, not sure I agree. Ricciardo has proven low reliability. It's a clear pattern, as per Hamilton in 2016 (but worse).

    Yes, but engineers do learn from their mistakes. (Even Honda, in the end.)

    Might happen; might not.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,246
    Aaaargh, I'm trying to work out where the early votes are still outstanding in Arizona but apparently Maricopa county doesn't split out it's votes into early/on the day so that completely screws up any and all numbers I'm trying to produce.

    Sad.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,236
    notme said:

    “Big pharma”. The language of Chem Trail lunatics, anti vaccinators and college campus denounciations of neoliberalism.

    Would you prefer "Bad Pharma"? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bad_Pharma
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,734
    Ryan David Long named as shooter in California. Local with a Glock and extended magazine...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,468
    I see that Florida looks a bit closer now for the Senatorial race with the Republican lead down to 0.2% and the margin just 22,000 votes. Yesterday the Republicans were 34,000 ahead.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 144
    Nigelb said:

    The issue isn't the pharmaceutical companies it is the broken US medical system. Allowing health programs to use their buying power seems a reasonable first step.

    Yep.
    Prescription drugs account for somewhere around 10% of US healthcare spending. Assuming a hugely over-ambitious 50% cut, it would barely make a dent in healthcare costs (though clearly would make a big difference in individual cases).

    Healthcare in the US is a mess, and addressing that systematically would deal with the drug pricing problem at the same time. Won't happen, of course, and pharmas are a relatively easy target.

    The unintended consequence would quite likely be the acceleration of the current slow migration of drug development to Asia.
    I agree - I was going to say that this is all about the overall value chain and the costs are broadly speaking R&D on the one hand, and marketing on the other. One of those can obviously be reduced by moving it out of the US / Europe.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,223
    RoyalBlue said:

    notme said:

    “Big pharma”. The language of Chem Trail lunatics, anti vaccinators and college campus denounciations of neoliberalism.

    I am none of those, but you don’t have to be to think that the whole American healthcare sector is a conspiracy against the patient. Doctors and surgeons with their extravagant pay are part of the problem too.
    Yup, they do get paid very well. But they also have huge student loans to pay off and huge other outgoings like liability insurance. And there's also a degree of supply and demand. My wife's brother-in-law is an ER doctor in Las Vegas. He's making of the order of $400,000 a year. That's because no-one with an education wants to live in a cultural wasteland like Vegas, so any medico willing to work there can pretty much name their price. In a few years he and my sister-in-law hope to move back to New England. He'll take a huge pay cut to do so but he'll have been able to pay off their student loans and a chunk of the mortgage on the house they've bought in NE.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,734
    rpjs said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    notme said:

    “Big pharma”. The language of Chem Trail lunatics, anti vaccinators and college campus denounciations of neoliberalism.

    I am none of those, but you don’t have to be to think that the whole American healthcare sector is a conspiracy against the patient. Doctors and surgeons with their extravagant pay are part of the problem too.
    Yup, they do get paid very well. But they also have huge student loans to pay off and huge other outgoings like liability insurance. And there's also a degree of supply and demand. My wife's brother-in-law is an ER doctor in Las Vegas. He's making of the order of $400,000 a year. That's because no-one with an education wants to live in a cultural wasteland like Vegas, so any medico willing to work there can pretty much name their price. In a few years he and my sister-in-law hope to move back to New England. He'll take a huge pay cut to do so but he'll have been able to pay off their student loans and a chunk of the mortgage on the house they've bought in NE.
    Las Vegas is a cultural wasteland? One wonders how they recruit staff in rural Arkansas.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 17,325
    Meanwhile, away from Raab's desperate efforts to understand how the ferry system works:

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,223
    dixiedean said:

    rpjs said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    notme said:

    “Big pharma”. The language of Chem Trail lunatics, anti vaccinators and college campus denounciations of neoliberalism.

    I am none of those, but you don’t have to be to think that the whole American healthcare sector is a conspiracy against the patient. Doctors and surgeons with their extravagant pay are part of the problem too.
    Yup, they do get paid very well. But they also have huge student loans to pay off and huge other outgoings like liability insurance. And there's also a degree of supply and demand. My wife's brother-in-law is an ER doctor in Las Vegas. He's making of the order of $400,000 a year. That's because no-one with an education wants to live in a cultural wasteland like Vegas, so any medico willing to work there can pretty much name their price. In a few years he and my sister-in-law hope to move back to New England. He'll take a huge pay cut to do so but he'll have been able to pay off their student loans and a chunk of the mortgage on the house they've bought in NE.
    Las Vegas is a cultural wasteland? One wonders how they recruit staff in rural Arkansas.
    Indeed. And rural Arkansas isn't as wealthy as LV so docs there probably aren't making anything like as much.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,501
    I always understood that the big difference in costs between the US and European systems was down to the management costs of the insurers.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,677
    rpjs said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    notme said:

    “Big pharma”. The language of Chem Trail lunatics, anti vaccinators and college campus denounciations of neoliberalism.

    I am none of those, but you don’t have to be to think that the whole American healthcare sector is a conspiracy against the patient. Doctors and surgeons with their extravagant pay are part of the problem too.
    Yup, they do get paid very well. But they also have huge student loans to pay off and huge other outgoings like liability insurance. And there's also a degree of supply and demand. My wife's brother-in-law is an ER doctor in Las Vegas. He's making of the order of $400,000 a year. That's because no-one with an education wants to live in a cultural wasteland like Vegas, so any medico willing to work there can pretty much name their price. In a few years he and my sister-in-law hope to move back to New England. He'll take a huge pay cut to do so but he'll have been able to pay off their student loans and a chunk of the mortgage on the house they've bought in NE.
    Have we reached a new peak in PB privilege? We should pity someone earning $400k because they have to live in Las Vegas?

    On that money, they can fly to San Francisco every weekend if they want.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,845
    justin124 said:

    I see that Florida looks a bit closer now for the Senatorial race with the Republican lead down to 0.2% and the margin just 22,000 votes. Yesterday the Republicans were 34,000 ahead.

    Betfair has a problem if the result reverses. They won't be the only ones.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,086
    What is the reason for the sudden urgency? Is it important to "Lock in" a deal before the ECJ rules that Brexit is reversible?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,809
    edited November 8

    American healthcare has been captured by the producer interest. It has also captured the politicians, however, so I am sceptical whether this will result in too much of a realignment of interests in favour of patients.

    Perhaps Trump is the one person who can cut through the vested interests.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,472
    dixiedean said:

    Ryan David Long named as shooter in California. Local with a Glock and extended magazine...

    BBC has the first name as Ian.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,284

    What is the reason for the sudden urgency? Is it important to "Lock in" a deal before the ECJ rules that Brexit is reversible?
    Sudden urgency? They’ve been chomping at the bit to get it done. Still needs ratification through the EU’s convoluted process. So starting earlier is better!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,284
    Tue or We’d wouldn’t happen if they didn’t agree, so they’d have to be out on Monday.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    Totally and utterly O/T - Hitman 2 out tomorrow.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,677
    edited November 8
    I still don’t believe that the Cabinet will agree to a Puerto Rico Brexit. Varadkar is clearly the foil for their maximalist claims.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,501
    RoyalBlue said:

    I still don’t believe that the Cabinet will agree to a Puerto Rico Brexit. Varadkar is clearly the foil for their maximalist claims.

    You had the solution in your moment of clarity a few months ago.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,074
    edited November 8
    Betting Post:

    It's easy to follow the market and leave Bellew (6.2) vs Usyk (1.2) well alone.

    Usyk has of course has just come off his WBSS win (and he won it nicely) and he is unbeaten in any case. Bellew has never looked the image of an unbeatable boxer (he has lost twice), even with his Hollywood appearances.

    But Bellew seems to have forgotten how to lose, he can bang, and he has more ringcraft than it seems he does, probably much more than Usyk is expecting.

    Plus at 6.2 in a match, it's got to be worth 50p of anyone's money the win.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,809
    A quick survey.

    Are PBers FOR or AGAINST neoliberalism?

    Memo
    Neoliberalism or neo-liberalism is the 20th-century resurgence of 19th-century ideas associated with laissez-faire economic liberalism.
    Those ideas include economic liberalization policies such as privatization, austerity, deregulation, free trade and reductions in government spending in order to increase the role of the private sector in the economy and society.
    These market-based ideas and the policies they inspired constitute a paradigm shift away from the post-war Keynesian consensus which lasted from 1945 to 1980
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    edited November 8
    The Iraqi prime minister has picked five members of his cabinet from among thousands of online applicants.

    Last month he took the unprecedented step of inviting members of the public to apply for posts online.

    Candidates were told to attach a CV and provide evidence that they met the requirements.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-46139475

    Application #10014

    Name - Dr Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
    Age - 47
    Education - Bsc,Msc,PhD
    Previous Experience - Extensive experience of leading several multi-national organizations, including successful rapid worldwide expansions.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,695
    Alistair said:

    Aaaargh, I'm trying to work out where the early votes are still outstanding in Arizona but apparently Maricopa county doesn't split out it's votes into early/on the day so that completely screws up any and all numbers I'm trying to produce.

    Sad.

    This is what Nate Silver wrote last night:

    However, the Arizona Republic estimates that almost 650,000 votes have yet to be counted statewide — including 80,000 to 100,000 in blue-leaning Pima County and 500,000 (!) in Maricopa County (the Phoenix area). Maricopa has some very blue corners and some very red corners, so without knowing where the outstanding ballots are coming from, this is a totally wide-open race. Reportedly, the state will issue updated vote totals at 5 p.m. local time every day starting on Thursday, Nov. 8.

    So clock in at midnight our time tonight and you might get some more info!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,284
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 17,325

    A quick survey.

    Are PBers FOR or AGAINST neoliberalism?

    Memo
    Neoliberalism or neo-liberalism is the 20th-century resurgence of 19th-century ideas associated with laissez-faire economic liberalism.
    Those ideas include economic liberalization policies such as privatization, austerity, deregulation, free trade and reductions in government spending in order to increase the role of the private sector in the economy and society.
    These market-based ideas and the policies they inspired constitute a paradigm shift away from the post-war Keynesian consensus which lasted from 1945 to 1980

    I'm certainly against Trump's mad policies, which will end in ruin. As AEP points out:

    "Trump’s policies flout the cardinal Keynesian rule - “the boom, not the slump is the right time for austerity” "
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,284
    edited November 8

    A quick survey.

    Are PBers FOR or AGAINST neoliberalism?

    Memo
    Neoliberalism or neo-liberalism is the 20th-century resurgence of 19th-century ideas associated with laissez-faire economic liberalism.
    Those ideas include economic liberalization policies such as privatization, austerity, deregulation, free trade and reductions in government spending in order to increase the role of the private sector in the economy and society.
    These market-based ideas and the policies they inspired constitute a paradigm shift away from the post-war Keynesian consensus which lasted from 1945 to 1980

    I'm certainly against Trump's mad policies, which will end in ruin. As AEP points out:

    "Trump’s policies flout the cardinal Keynesian rule - “the boom, not the slump is the right time for austerity” "
    They are probably gambling the next recession doesn’t happen before 2020. With a growing deficit, the US isn’t in a good place fiscally.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 17,325
    Tue pm: Barnier says it is the same crap he has heard a thousand times.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    Mr. Urquhart, the Sean Bean trailer is good. Not quite as good as the Chuckle Brothers playing real life Hitman, but still cool.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690

    Mr. Urquhart, the Sean Bean trailer is good. Not quite as good as the Chuckle Brothers playing real life Hitman, but still cool.

    To me, to you...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,203
    mwadams said:

    Nigelb said:

    The issue isn't the pharmaceutical companies it is the broken US medical system. Allowing health programs to use their buying power seems a reasonable first step.

    Yep.
    Prescription drugs account for somewhere around 10% of US healthcare spending. Assuming a hugely over-ambitious 50% cut, it would barely make a dent in healthcare costs (though clearly would make a big difference in individual cases).

    Healthcare in the US is a mess, and addressing that systematically would deal with the drug pricing problem at the same time. Won't happen, of course, and pharmas are a relatively easy target.

    The unintended consequence would quite likely be the acceleration of the current slow migration of drug development to Asia.
    I agree - I was going to say that this is all about the overall value chain and the costs are broadly speaking R&D on the one hand, and marketing on the other. One of those can obviously be reduced by moving it out of the US / Europe.
    Up to a point.
    The money - both marketing and R&D - eventually goes where the demand is, which up until now has been the US. China is now a very big market, and getting bigger. And there is quite a lot of serious R&D being done in Asia now - and the money and appetite to increase that quickly.
    The good news for pharmaceutical companies is that most drugs can be sold worldwide, so a bigger market means lower prices don't necessarily lead to lower profits.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,734

    dixiedean said:

    Ryan David Long named as shooter in California. Local with a Glock and extended magazine...

    BBC has the first name as Ian.
    Yes. I am a purveyor of fake news it would seem...
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,628

    Tue pm: Barnier says it is the same crap he has heard a thousand times.
    Indeed. Agreement will only be reached when the UK accepts the indefinite backstop without a unilateral get out. And large portions of humble pie will have to be forced down by many proud ministers before we get to that stage.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    Mr. Urquhart, when they were choking a guy out: "To me, to me, to me."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    There is something very wrong with the Labour Party when I find myself thinking John Mann is right most of the time...

  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,326

    The Iraqi prime minister has picked five members of his cabinet from among thousands of online applicants.

    Last month he took the unprecedented step of inviting members of the public to apply for posts online.

    Candidates were told to attach a CV and provide evidence that they met the requirements.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-46139475

    Application #10014

    Name - Dr Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
    Age - 47
    Education - Bsc,Msc,PhD
    Previous Experience - Extensive experience of leading several multi-national organizations, including successful rapid worldwide expansions.

    Someone has been having fun with Al Baghdadi's wiki entry:

    In poor taste all things considered, but I guess they're making a point:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Bakr_al-Baghdadi
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,086
    Seriously?

    How did a clown like this get to such a position in govt?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 17,325
    RobD said:

    A quick survey.

    Are PBers FOR or AGAINST neoliberalism?

    Memo
    Neoliberalism or neo-liberalism is the 20th-century resurgence of 19th-century ideas associated with laissez-faire economic liberalism.
    Those ideas include economic liberalization policies such as privatization, austerity, deregulation, free trade and reductions in government spending in order to increase the role of the private sector in the economy and society.
    These market-based ideas and the policies they inspired constitute a paradigm shift away from the post-war Keynesian consensus which lasted from 1945 to 1980

    I'm certainly against Trump's mad policies, which will end in ruin. As AEP points out:

    "Trump’s policies flout the cardinal Keynesian rule - “the boom, not the slump is the right time for austerity” "
    They are probably gambling the next recession doesn’t happen before 2020. With a growing deficit, the US isn’t in a good place fiscally.
    The GOP have gone literally mad as far as I can see.

    This is the party stuffed full of Tea Party types who hate debt and deficit and spending. Another large swathe of the party love markets and free trade.

    Why they have signed up to this Trump-onomics crap is beyond me, but involves cowards.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 17,325

    Seriously?

    How did a clown like this get to such a position in govt?

    How did this clown get to be in the running for next PM?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,223
    RoyalBlue said:

    rpjs said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    notme said:

    “Big pharma”. The language of Chem Trail lunatics, anti vaccinators and college campus denounciations of neoliberalism.

    I am none of those, but you don’t have to be to think that the whole American healthcare sector is a conspiracy against the patient. Doctors and surgeons with their extravagant pay are part of the problem too.
    Yup, they do get paid very well. But they also have huge student loans to pay off and huge other outgoings like liability insurance. And there's also a degree of supply and demand. My wife's brother-in-law is an ER doctor in Las Vegas. He's making of the order of $400,000 a year. That's because no-one with an education wants to live in a cultural wasteland like Vegas, so any medico willing to work there can pretty much name their price. In a few years he and my sister-in-law hope to move back to New England. He'll take a huge pay cut to do so but he'll have been able to pay off their student loans and a chunk of the mortgage on the house they've bought in NE.
    Have we reached a new peak in PB privilege? We should pity someone earning $400k because they have to live in Las Vegas?

    On that money, they can fly to San Francisco every weekend if they want.
    I'm not saying they should be pitied! They're doing very well for themselves. I'm just trying to explain some of the economics around US healthcare.

    Are they privileged? Yes of course they are, but they are so because the market in LV will pay stupid money for his skills. (The market in rural Arkansas can't, and such rural areas are suffering from lack of medical skills). My point is that in classic capitalist "rational actor" economics, why wouldn't they spend a few years in LV to make that money to pay off a chunk of their huge medical and psych school debts?

    Another reason why they won't stay in LV for long is that they have a one-year-old and the public school system in LV is very bad with even the private schools being largely meh. Vegas isn't somewhere you'd want to bring up a family.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,086
    RobD said:

    What is the reason for the sudden urgency? Is it important to "Lock in" a deal before the ECJ rules that Brexit is reversible?
    Sudden urgency? They’ve been chomping at the bit to get it done. Still needs ratification through the EU’s convoluted process. So starting earlier is better!
    Really? So there is no currently-being-denied timetable to get it rammed through by the end of the month after an extended publicity blitz that even ministers have not been allowed to see?

    :D :D :D
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,223

    RobD said:

    What is the reason for the sudden urgency? Is it important to "Lock in" a deal before the ECJ rules that Brexit is reversible?
    Sudden urgency? They’ve been chomping at the bit to get it done. Still needs ratification through the EU’s convoluted process. So starting earlier is better!
    Really? So there is no currently-being-denied timetable to get it rammed through by the end of the month after an extended publicity blitz that even ministers have not been allowed to see?

    :D :D :D
    I'm not sure that it's because of the potential ECJ ruling but that business is clearly beginning to panic. And with reason.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,246

    Alistair said:

    Aaaargh, I'm trying to work out where the early votes are still outstanding in Arizona but apparently Maricopa county doesn't split out it's votes into early/on the day so that completely screws up any and all numbers I'm trying to produce.

    Sad.

    This is what Nate Silver wrote last night:

    However, the Arizona Republic estimates that almost 650,000 votes have yet to be counted statewide — including 80,000 to 100,000 in blue-leaning Pima County and 500,000 (!) in Maricopa County (the Phoenix area). Maricopa has some very blue corners and some very red corners, so without knowing where the outstanding ballots are coming from, this is a totally wide-open race. Reportedly, the state will issue updated vote totals at 5 p.m. local time every day starting on Thursday, Nov. 8.

    So clock in at midnight our time tonight and you might get some more info!
    There was a cool 1 million early votes in Maricopa returned. No idea how many counted so far.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,355
    FPT: @NigelB - Just to be clear, I am absolutely in favour of gun control. I find the US approach bizarre.

    I don't oppose people arguing for the right to bear arms to see the consequences of that - what a gun does to a body. Except that is not what is ever shown on TV. Just the grief. And it feels to me distasteful to show grief in the way that we do. It rarely aids understanding and it makes me feel like a voyeur in a way that I don't like. Nor do I like my emotions manipulated by the way that some stories are presented.

    But my real issue was the way that incidents in the US become big news stories here when really they are not relevant to the UK at all and there are stories that we are not being told about what happens in other European countries, let alone in Asia or Africa, which are or may be more relevant. Sometimes it seems to me we get news from the US because that's where the journalists are rather than because they are the most important stories.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,640
    rpjs said:

    dixiedean said:

    rpjs said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    notme said:

    “Big pharma”. The language of Chem Trail lunatics, anti vaccinators and college campus denounciations of neoliberalism.

    I am none of those, but you don’t have to be to think that the whole American healthcare sector is a conspiracy against the patient. Doctors and surgeons with their extravagant pay are part of the problem too.
    Yup, they do get paid very well. But they also have huge student loans to pay off and huge other outgoings like liability insurance. And there's also a degree of supply and demand. My wife's brother-in-law is an ER doctor in Las Vegas. He's making of the order of $400,000 a year. That's because no-one with an education wants to live in a cultural wasteland like Vegas, so any medico willing to work there can pretty much name their price. In a few years he and my sister-in-law hope to move back to New England. He'll take a huge pay cut to do so but he'll have been able to pay off their student loans and a chunk of the mortgage on the house they've bought in NE.
    Las Vegas is a cultural wasteland? One wonders how they recruit staff in rural Arkansas.
    Indeed. And rural Arkansas isn't as wealthy as LV so docs there probably aren't making anything like as much.
    Relatively though it will be a much nicer lifestyle and they will be very well off.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,086
    rpjs said:

    RobD said:

    What is the reason for the sudden urgency? Is it important to "Lock in" a deal before the ECJ rules that Brexit is reversible?
    Sudden urgency? They’ve been chomping at the bit to get it done. Still needs ratification through the EU’s convoluted process. So starting earlier is better!
    Really? So there is no currently-being-denied timetable to get it rammed through by the end of the month after an extended publicity blitz that even ministers have not been allowed to see?

    :D :D :D
    I'm not sure that it's because of the potential ECJ ruling but that business is clearly beginning to panic. And with reason.
    I would that think the business angle is another factor. Frankly, I am amazed that we have got this far before the panic has begun. I expected it to start in the early summer.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,246
    Cyclefree said:

    FPT: @NigelB - Just to be clear, I am absolutely in favour of gun control. I find the US approach bizarre.

    I don't oppose people arguing for the right to bear arms to see the consequences of that - what a gun does to a body. Except that is not what is ever shown on TV. Just the grief. And it feels to me distasteful to show grief in the way that we do. It rarely aids understanding and it makes me feel like a voyeur in a way that I don't like. Nor do I like my emotions manipulated by the way that some stories are presented.

    But my real issue was the way that incidents in the US become big news stories here when really they are not relevant to the UK at all and there are stories that we are not being told about what happens in other European countries, let alone in Asia or Africa, which are or may be more relevant. Sometimes it seems to me we get news from the US because that's where the journalists are rather than because they are the most important stories.

    It's because we share a language. Spanish news has lots on South America for example.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,284

    RobD said:

    What is the reason for the sudden urgency? Is it important to "Lock in" a deal before the ECJ rules that Brexit is reversible?
    Sudden urgency? They’ve been chomping at the bit to get it done. Still needs ratification through the EU’s convoluted process. So starting earlier is better!
    Really? So there is no currently-being-denied timetable to get it rammed through by the end of the month after an extended publicity blitz that even ministers have not been allowed to see?

    :D :D :D
    It being agreed between November and December was always on the cards, given the timescale for ratification on the EU's side.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,355
    edited November 8

    Seriously?

    How did a clown like this get to such a position in govt?

    Possibly because intelligent, thoughtful, courageous ladies like you and me wouldn't go near such a disgraceful profession........ :)
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,223

    rpjs said:

    RobD said:

    What is the reason for the sudden urgency? Is it important to "Lock in" a deal before the ECJ rules that Brexit is reversible?
    Sudden urgency? They’ve been chomping at the bit to get it done. Still needs ratification through the EU’s convoluted process. So starting earlier is better!
    Really? So there is no currently-being-denied timetable to get it rammed through by the end of the month after an extended publicity blitz that even ministers have not been allowed to see?

    :D :D :D
    I'm not sure that it's because of the potential ECJ ruling but that business is clearly beginning to panic. And with reason.
    I would that think the business angle is another factor. Frankly, I am amazed that we have got this far before the panic has begun. I expected it to start in the early summer.
    Agreed. I think there's been a certain amount of "this can't not be sorted" belief going on, and still is, but I think people are beginning to realize it can.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,640

    Seriously?

    How did a clown like this get to such a position in govt?

    Even worse , a bunch of nutters on here had him as favourite to be next PM. Tories are barking.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,640

    A quick survey.

    Are PBers FOR or AGAINST neoliberalism?

    Memo
    Neoliberalism or neo-liberalism is the 20th-century resurgence of 19th-century ideas associated with laissez-faire economic liberalism.
    Those ideas include economic liberalization policies such as privatization, austerity, deregulation, free trade and reductions in government spending in order to increase the role of the private sector in the economy and society.
    These market-based ideas and the policies they inspired constitute a paradigm shift away from the post-war Keynesian consensus which lasted from 1945 to 1980

    AGAINST, just an excuse for the rich to get even richer at the expense of the downtrodden. Someone needs to keep the greedy Bas***** in check.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,628

    rpjs said:

    RobD said:

    What is the reason for the sudden urgency? Is it important to "Lock in" a deal before the ECJ rules that Brexit is reversible?
    Sudden urgency? They’ve been chomping at the bit to get it done. Still needs ratification through the EU’s convoluted process. So starting earlier is better!
    Really? So there is no currently-being-denied timetable to get it rammed through by the end of the month after an extended publicity blitz that even ministers have not been allowed to see?

    :D :D :D
    I'm not sure that it's because of the potential ECJ ruling but that business is clearly beginning to panic. And with reason.
    I would that think the business angle is another factor. Frankly, I am amazed that we have got this far before the panic has begun. I expected it to start in the early summer.
    So did I. But many business people seem to have a touching faith in May which is entirely misplaced, perhaps because they have become so used to governments always taking a pro-business position that they cannot conceive of one that deliberately sets out to trash the economy.

    I was at a presentation by a well known city fund manager earlier in the week. He gravely opined that May was doing her best, the Chequers deal was not perfect but would provide considerable comfort. The fact that Chequers is more dead than the fabled parrot seems to have completely passed him by.

    A lot of people are in for a nasty shock in the next few weeks IMO.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 17,325
    Very interesting.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    "Democrats did very well in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which are basically the tipping-point states right now. "

    The thing these went Trump, but Bernie would have crushed Trump into those states. It was the fact he was up against Clinton.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,695

    So did I. But many business people seem to have a touching faith in May which is entirely misplaced, perhaps because they have become so used to governments always taking a pro-business position that they cannot conceive of one that deliberately sets out to trash the economy.

    I was at a presentation by a well known city fund manager earlier in the week. He gravely opined that May was doing her best, the Chequers deal was not perfect but would provide considerable comfort. The fact that Chequers is more dead than the fabled parrot seems to have completely passed him by.

    A lot of people are in for a nasty shock in the next few weeks IMO.

    The 'well known city fund manager' is right. There's an awful lot of noise around, for example the absurd synthetic indignation about something Dominic Raab phrased slightly imperfectly, and lots of politicians grandstanding in contradictory directions, and lots of people like you hoping it will all be a disaster, but one needs to look through all that.

    Now's the time to buy domestically-focused UK stocks, IMO. In fact I've have just done exactly that - Lloyds Bank, housebuilders, funds like Marlborough UK Microcap Growth. Once we get a deal, which looks imminent, there's likely to be a quite large relief rally.

    [This is not investment advice, etc etc!]
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,127
    I'd put Florida in the light red column this time round, rather than light blue. I'm not sure what the effect of ex-felons voting will be in 2020.

    Ohio looks fairly safely Republican now.

    So, yes, it does come down to PA, WI, and MI, unless either the Republicans or Democrats become very unpopular.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 17,916
    edited November 8
    I do wonder if the wall of silence from no 10 is as much to do with not overshadowing the Armistice Day commemorations, TM joint appearance with Macron, and other commitments she has got this weekend.

    I believe we are likely to see movement next week to the deal with a take it or leave it option to the HOC
  • The former Chief of Staff to George Osborne CH tweets

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,705

    A quick survey.

    Are PBers FOR or AGAINST neoliberalism?

    Memo
    Neoliberalism or neo-liberalism is the 20th-century resurgence of 19th-century ideas associated with laissez-faire economic liberalism.
    Those ideas include economic liberalization policies such as privatization, austerity, deregulation, free trade and reductions in government spending in order to increase the role of the private sector in the economy and society.
    These market-based ideas and the policies they inspired constitute a paradigm shift away from the post-war Keynesian consensus which lasted from 1945 to 1980

    Just throw in Workhouses and you'd have a perfect economic and social policy platform.

    That's an 'Against', btw.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,434
    Cyclefree said:

    FF43 said:

    I expect the Withdrawal Agreement to go through because ANY deal is better than no deal, contrary to the mantra. It will, of course, be a bad deal. But that's because Brexit is a profoundly misconceived idea and not because of negotiation failures. The government hasn't done a good job, but that doesn'tmake a big difference to the outcome.

    The EU is no longer interested in stopping the car. It is focused on jumping out the way when the car crash happens.

    In short Brexit will go ahead with the Withdrawal Agreement.

    It does look though as if one accusation some of the Brexiteers made was right, namely, that it was impossible to leave the EU, whatever the Lisbon Treaty said, if in fact the only way to leave is to do so on terms which mean that in practice nothing changes.

    That may well be the best and only realistic option, given that those arguing most fervently for Brexit have done little or no preparation for the practicalities of Brexit. But it risks not making for a long-term happy relationship between Britain and the EU. And I think that is a failure on both sides.

    Put it this way, either we are a third country and do what we want - and, crucially, take the consequences - or we are not. But some on the EU side seem to want us to be both a third country and a de facto member - see Ireland's latest comments.

    The British political class has behaved appallingly over the last few years on this issue. But any long-term fair assessment would apportion a fair amount of blame to the EU in the way that it has behaved too.

    It is a great shame. But we will have to get on with it. I do think that creating even more opportunities for resentment / humiliation etc is a very bad move, from whoever it comes. European history should have taught British and European politicians that much, at least. It is a lesson they seem intent on ignoring.
    Two things work together to make the biggest contradiction of Brexit: 1. The UK practically cannot do without a close relationship with the EU, which will be on the EU's terms. 2. The EU isn't interested in a partnership of equals with the UK. That contradiction is the UK's problem, not the EU's who have no stake in minimising that contradiction. If you need the partnership and it's not one of equals, you have to accept the partnership of unequals. As Brexit was premised on "taking control", we have an entirely predictable problem.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,355
    Alistair said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT: @NigelB - Just to be clear, I am absolutely in favour of gun control. I find the US approach bizarre.

    I don't oppose people arguing for the right to bear arms to see the consequences of that - what a gun does to a body. Except that is not what is ever shown on TV. Just the grief. And it feels to me distasteful to show grief in the way that we do. It rarely aids understanding and it makes me feel like a voyeur in a way that I don't like. Nor do I like my emotions manipulated by the way that some stories are presented.

    But my real issue was the way that incidents in the US become big news stories here when really they are not relevant to the UK at all and there are stories that we are not being told about what happens in other European countries, let alone in Asia or Africa, which are or may be more relevant. Sometimes it seems to me we get news from the US because that's where the journalists are rather than because they are the most important stories.

    It's because we share a language. Spanish news has lots on South America for example.
    We share a language with most of Africa and India and Australia and NZ and Canada and lots of other places besides. We don't get anything like the same amount of news from those places.

    I miss the days when papers and the BBC had proper correspondents in France and Italy and other European countries. David Willey in Italy used to write superb articles about Italy for instance. We've had endless stuff about the EU, most of it from a position of ignorance, and yet we are remarkably poorly informed about politics and life generally, including culture, in our near neighbours. Yet some appalling shooting in the middle of nowhere in US can be the lead story. It is appalling and horrible but its impact on us is, frankly, zero. If tragedy was the test we'd have Indian railway accidents as lead stories far more often than we do.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,501
    If May is doing her best.......
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,985

    Meanwhile, away from Raab's desperate efforts to understand how the ferry system works:

    Which was in an area had yet to have universal credit rolled out.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,086
    Cyclefree said:

    Seriously?

    How did a clown like this get to such a position in govt?

    Possibly because intelligent, thoughtful, courageous ladies like you and me wouldn't go near such a disgraceful profession........ :)
    :D :D :D

    That could indeed be the reason :+1:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,074

    So did I. But many business people seem to have a touching faith in May which is entirely misplaced, perhaps because they have become so used to governments always taking a pro-business position that they cannot conceive of one that deliberately sets out to trash the economy.

    I was at a presentation by a well known city fund manager earlier in the week. He gravely opined that May was doing her best, the Chequers deal was not perfect but would provide considerable comfort. The fact that Chequers is more dead than the fabled parrot seems to have completely passed him by.

    A lot of people are in for a nasty shock in the next few weeks IMO.

    The 'well known city fund manager' is right. There's an awful lot of noise around, for example the absurd synthetic indignation about something Dominic Raab phrased slightly imperfectly, and lots of politicians grandstanding in contradictory directions, and lots of people like you hoping it will all be a disaster, but one needs to look through all that.

    Now's the time to buy domestically-focused UK stocks, IMO. In fact I've have just done exactly that - Lloyds Bank, housebuilders, funds like Marlborough UK Microcap Growth. Once we get a deal, which looks imminent, there's likely to be a quite large relief rally.

    [This is not investment advice, etc etc!]
    The trouble is, the build up to this effing deal has been so immense, that expectations and fears will just about cancel themselves out. Leaving cold, hard analysis and, I dare say, a fair few "expert forecasts". Not all of these will be highlighting the sunlit uplands.

    As for buying housebuilders right now - November 11th notwithstanding, that really is doing your duty.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,193

    A quick survey.

    Are PBers FOR or AGAINST neoliberalism?

    Memo
    Neoliberalism or neo-liberalism is the 20th-century resurgence of 19th-century ideas associated with laissez-faire economic liberalism.
    Those ideas include economic liberalization policies such as privatization, austerity, deregulation, free trade and reductions in government spending in order to increase the role of the private sector in the economy and society.
    These market-based ideas and the policies they inspired constitute a paradigm shift away from the post-war Keynesian consensus which lasted from 1945 to 1980

    Just throw in Workhouses and you'd have a perfect economic and social policy platform.

    That's an 'Against', btw.
    I think Dominic Raab and Ester McVey want to bring them back.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,086

    I do wonder if the wall of silence from no 10 is as much to do with not overshadowing the Armistice Day commemorations, TM joint appearance with Macron, and other commitments she has got this weekend.

    I believe we are likely to see movement next week to the deal with a take it or leave it option to the HOC

    Big_G, your loyalty to your Party and your Leader is touching, but totally misplaced IMO. She appears to be completely out of her depth and is leading a bunch of talentless non-entities from shambles to disaster.

    Not that Labour is much better :/
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,355
    FF43 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FF43 said:

    It is a great shame. But we will have to get on with it. I do think that creating even more opportunities for resentment / humiliation etc is a very bad move, from whoever it comes. European history should have taught British and European politicians that much, at least. It is a lesson they seem intent on ignoring.
    Two things work together to make the biggest contradiction of Brexit: 1. The UK practically cannot do without a close relationship with the EU, which will be on the EU's terms. 2. The EU isn't interested in a partnership of equals with the UK. That contradiction is the UK's problem, not the EU's who have no stake in minimising that contradiction. If you need the partnership and it's not one of equals, you have to accept the partnership of unequals. As Brexit was premised on "taking control", we have an entirely predictable problem.
    Absolutely true. But no. 2 is a choice not the result of some law of nature.

    My question is: is it entirely wise of the EU to take the attitude they are taking? I am not arguing for Britain to get everything it wants like some Brexiteers. I am simply saying that given Britain's position and its history and the history of Europe and the advantages of having a good relationship it may be wise to look to have a partnership which is something between a partnership of identical equals and one which says "we're bigger than you and we'll use that power", regardless of the consequences.

    Failing to think of the long-term seems to me to be a failing which could come back and bite both us and the EU on the bum in what is an uncertain and unstable world.

    In short, I think the EU does have a stake - or ought to, for its own sake - in minimising that contradiction to a much greater extent than it is seeking to do. Nothing is forever and nothing is inevitable. The march of history - which the EU seems to think will march in its direction for ever - has a nasty habit of taking some very unexpected turns.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,127

    A quick survey.

    Are PBers FOR or AGAINST neoliberalism?

    Memo
    Neoliberalism or neo-liberalism is the 20th-century resurgence of 19th-century ideas associated with laissez-faire economic liberalism.
    Those ideas include economic liberalization policies such as privatization, austerity, deregulation, free trade and reductions in government spending in order to increase the role of the private sector in the economy and society.
    These market-based ideas and the policies they inspired constitute a paradigm shift away from the post-war Keynesian consensus which lasted from 1945 to 1980

    Just throw in Workhouses and you'd have a perfect economic and social policy platform.

    That's an 'Against', btw.
    My priority would be to repeal the Mines and Factories Act 1842.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 8,122
    Sean_F said:

    A quick survey.

    Are PBers FOR or AGAINST neoliberalism?

    Memo
    Neoliberalism or neo-liberalism is the 20th-century resurgence of 19th-century ideas associated with laissez-faire economic liberalism.
    Those ideas include economic liberalization policies such as privatization, austerity, deregulation, free trade and reductions in government spending in order to increase the role of the private sector in the economy and society.
    These market-based ideas and the policies they inspired constitute a paradigm shift away from the post-war Keynesian consensus which lasted from 1945 to 1980

    Just throw in Workhouses and you'd have a perfect economic and social policy platform.

    That's an 'Against', btw.
    My priority would be to repeal the Mines and Factories Act 1842.
    Can't be coke addicts if they die at the age of 9, these lads
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,127

    Sean_F said:

    A quick survey.

    Are PBers FOR or AGAINST neoliberalism?

    Memo
    Neoliberalism or neo-liberalism is the 20th-century resurgence of 19th-century ideas associated with laissez-faire economic liberalism.
    Those ideas include economic liberalization policies such as privatization, austerity, deregulation, free trade and reductions in government spending in order to increase the role of the private sector in the economy and society.
    These market-based ideas and the policies they inspired constitute a paradigm shift away from the post-war Keynesian consensus which lasted from 1945 to 1980

    Just throw in Workhouses and you'd have a perfect economic and social policy platform.

    That's an 'Against', btw.
    My priority would be to repeal the Mines and Factories Act 1842.
    Can't be coke addicts if they die at the age of 9, these lads
    I did once attend a Libertarian Alliance meeting at which the speaker was arguing for the abolition of all laws restricting the use of child labour.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,090
    Cyclefree said:

    FF43 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FF43 said:

    .
    Two things work together to make the biggest contradiction of Brexit: 1. The UK practically cannot do without a close relationship with the EU, which will be on the EU's terms. 2. The EU isn't interested in a partnership of equals with the UK. That contradiction is the UK's problem, not the EU's who have no stake in minimising that contradiction. If you need the partnership and it's not one of equals, you have to accept the partnership of unequals. As Brexit was premised on "taking control", we have an entirely predictable problem.
    Absolutely true. But no. 2 is a choice not the result of some law of nature.

    My question is: is it entirely wise of the EU to take the attitude they are taking? I am not arguing for Britain to get everything it wants like some Brexiteers. I am simply saying that given Britain's position and its history and the history of Europe and the advantages of having a good relationship it may be wise to look to have a partnership which is something between a partnership of identical equals and one which says "we're bigger than you and we'll use that power", regardless of the consequences.

    Failing to think of the long-term seems to me to be a failing which could come back and bite both us and the EU on the bum in what is an uncertain and unstable world.

    In short, I think the EU does have a stake - or ought to, for its own sake - in minimising that contradiction to a much greater extent than it is seeking to do. Nothing is forever and nothing is inevitable. The march of history - which the EU seems to think will march in its direction for ever - has a nasty habit of taking some very unexpected turns.
    If it was a negotiation from a position of being outside the EU, seeking to come closer but not a membership application, then I think this is all very possible.

    But given the rancour between the sides from Day 1, the potential losses on both sides even in the event of a 'good' outcome and the inability to agree a solution on the Irish Border, or even accept how critical an issue it was until late in the day, hard to imagine how it could have been much better.

    My guess is that if you played June 24th 2016 - now 100 or so times, most of the time you'd end up here. Probably a couple of times Brexit was stopped for various reasons, maybe a couple where we ended up with a rock hard border in NI and damn the consequences, probably a few where the UK negotiating position was more widely agreed across parties at an earlier stage. But they'd be the exceptions. Maybe the unpalatable truth is that this is exactly what Brexit is.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,695
    edited November 8
    TOPPING said:

    As for buying housebuilders right now - November 11th notwithstanding, that really is doing your duty.

    They are priced for Armageddon, yet are generating cash like crazy, and no government is going to want housebuilding to slow down. The market has hugely overreacted to a slight easing off in the market, IMO - especially as there isn't much easing-off outside London. A Brexit deal would mean an immediate boost to confidence both amongst buyers and in stock market sentiment for the sector, and the two will reinforce each other.

    Of course if the deal isn't agreed or gets torpedoed by any unholy alliance of Umunna, Vince, Corbyn, Rees Mogg and Peter Bone, then the investment won't look so good (in the short term at least). But in that scenario the pound will crash and the foreign holdings will more than compensate.

    Or, to put it another way: the pound is going to shift sharply either up or down, and UK-focused stocks are going either to soar or slump relative to international stocks (in sterling terms). You need to be positioned for either scenario.

    [This is not investment advice etc etc!]
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 10,722

    There is something very wrong with the Labour Party when I find myself thinking John Mann is right most of the time...

    Does the original tweetee not know what the RBL do?

    What does he think poppy money goes towards?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    edited November 8
    Mortimer said:

    There is something very wrong with the Labour Party when I find myself thinking John Mann is right most of the time...

    Does the original tweetee not know what the RBL do?

    What does he think poppy money goes towards?
    That’s a racist question.....

    The original tweeter when not smashing up banks runs fake news site novara media.

    It seems these days to be a somebody in the corbynista movement you have to have a criminal record, not be keen on Jews and be a total f##kin moron. Owen Jones is of course defending this guy.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 387

    So did I. But many business people seem to have a touching faith in May which is entirely misplaced, perhaps because they have become so used to governments always taking a pro-business position that they cannot conceive of one that deliberately sets out to trash the economy.

    I was at a presentation by a well known city fund manager earlier in the week. He gravely opined that May was doing her best, the Chequers deal was not perfect but would provide considerable comfort. The fact that Chequers is more dead than the fabled parrot seems to have completely passed him by.

    A lot of people are in for a nasty shock in the next few weeks IMO.

    The 'well known city fund manager' is right. There's an awful lot of noise around, for example the absurd synthetic indignation about something Dominic Raab phrased slightly imperfectly, and lots of politicians grandstanding in contradictory directions, and lots of people like you hoping it will all be a disaster, but one needs to look through all that.

    Now's the time to buy domestically-focused UK stocks, IMO. In fact I've have just done exactly that - Lloyds Bank, housebuilders, funds like Marlborough UK Microcap Growth. Once we get a deal, which looks imminent, there's likely to be a quite large relief rally.

    [This is not investment advice, etc etc!]
    Did he phrase it slightly imperfectly? Didn't sound it to me. Seemed quite clear. Also it seemed quite clear that his reference to JIT was to do with ensuring stuff that goes off quickly gets delivered in time. It isn't. It has nothing to do with it. That is very worrying for all those that rely on JIT.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    Hmm. Wonder if the odds a second referendum will shorten.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,677
    Cyclefree said:

    Alistair said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT: @NigelB - Just to be clear, I am absolutely in favour of gun control. I find the US approach bizarre.

    I don't oppose people arguing for the right to bear arms to see the consequences of that - what a gun does to a body. Except that is not what is ever shown on TV. Just the grief. And it feels to me distasteful to show grief in the way that we do. It rarely aids understanding and it makes me feel like a voyeur in a way that I don't like. Nor do I like my emotions manipulated by the way that some stories are presented.

    But my real issue was the way that incidents in the US become big news stories here when really they are not relevant to the UK at all and there are stories that we are not being told about what happens in other European countries, let alone in Asia or Africa, which are or may be more relevant. Sometimes it seems to me we get news from the US because that's where the journalists are rather than because they are the most important stories.

    It's because we share a language. Spanish news has lots on South America for example.
    We share a language with most of Africa and India and Australia and NZ and Canada and lots of other places besides. We don't get anything like the same amount of news from those places.

    I miss the days when papers and the BBC had proper correspondents in France and Italy and other European countries. David Willey in Italy used to write superb articles about Italy for instance. We've had endless stuff about the EU, most of it from a position of ignorance, and yet we are remarkably poorly informed about politics and life generally, including culture, in our near neighbours. Yet some appalling shooting in the middle of nowhere in US can be the lead story. It is appalling and horrible but its impact on us is, frankly, zero. If tragedy was the test we'd have Indian railway accidents as lead stories far more often than we do.
    Africa and India are big places. To say that we ‘share a language’ with them is grossly inaccurate. Is the role of English growing there? Yes. Will they ever be as culturally close to us as the USA is today? No.

    The Old Dominions are rich stable countries. People want to read about sex, scandal, violence and celebrities. They don’t do brilliantly on that front.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,845

    TOPPING said:

    As for buying housebuilders right now - November 11th notwithstanding, that really is doing your duty.

    They are priced for Armageddon, yet are generating cash like crazy, and no government is going to want housebuilding to slow down. The market has hugely overreacted to a slight easing off in the market, IMO - especially as there isn't much easing-off outside London. A Brexit deal would mean an immediate boost to confidence both amongst buyers and in stock market sentiment for the sector, and the two will reinforce each other.

    Of course if the deal isn't agreed or gets torpedoed by any unholy alliance of Umunna, Vince, Corbyn, Rees Mogg and Peter Bone, then the investment won't look so good (in the short term at least). But in that scenario the pound will crash and the foreign holdings will more than compensate.

    Or, to put it another way: the pound is going to shift sharply either up or down, and UK-focused stocks are going either to soar or slump relative to international stocks (in sterling terms). You need to be positioned for either scenario.

    [This is not investment advice etc etc!]
    Straight from the midterms into the housebuilders. You're a gambling man, Richard !
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,074

    TOPPING said:

    As for buying housebuilders right now - November 11th notwithstanding, that really is doing your duty.

    They are priced for Armageddon, yet are generating cash like crazy, and no government is going to want housebuilding to slow down. The market has hugely overreacted to a slight easing off in the market, IMO - especially as there isn't much easing-off outside London. A Brexit deal would mean an immediate boost to confidence both amongst buyers and in stock market sentiment for the sector, and the two will reinforce each other.

    Of course if the deal isn't agreed or gets torpedoed by any unholy alliance of Umunna, Vince, Corbyn, Rees Mogg and Peter Bone, then the investment won't look so good (in the short term at least). But in that scenario the pound will crash and the foreign holdings will more than compensate.

    Or, to put it another way: the pound is going to shift sharply either up or down, and UK-focused stocks are going either to soar or slump relative to international stocks (in sterling terms). You need to be positioned for either scenario.

    [This is not investment advice etc etc!]
    The problem is affordability or profitability, depending on which side of the front door you are.

    There is plenty of housing going up atm. People are looking to permitted development and CLTs because no one can afford the flats going up round the corner.

    That is why I wouldn't be buying even at these multiples right now.
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