Labour simply have to be better than the government...
...With this shower, that is not hard.
They haven't yet managed it though.
They won a vote in the Commons.
The Tories have won many votes in the Commons, what of it?
Not with 258 seats and not this week on Brexit. We need a party that can stitch together wins by working with others. The evidence suggests that Labour might be better placed despite the disadvantages.
I'm pretty sure Labour can't win an overall majority. If they're going to enter government, it'll be a rainbow coalition of Lab, SNP, LD, PC, Green.
I know the current Government are pretty useless but I’m unsure how to react to the suggestion that Corbyn could be the answer in a minority government situation. I wouldn’t be surprised if he voted against himself. Do we really think he could bring together all of the rainbow whilst not imploding?
Just seen a quite brilliant documentary, 3 Identical Strangers about triplets reared apart in the US. Nice to see that it was directed by a Brit, Tim Wardle, following in the great tradition of British documentary film making. Something we ought to celebrate rather more in this era of fake news.
Thanks for that, it has come through as a BAFTA screener, so will put it to the top of the pile.
Very febrile on here tonight. Fundamentally though nothing has changed since Chequers. It ought to have been clear to whips then that nothing would go through without opposition support. Nothing has been done towards that end. Too late now.
Nothing will go through. Period. There is no majority in the HoC for any available Brexit deal. It's either no deal or remain.
I tend to agree. I suppose we will have to wait for the memoirs. But, on the surface, it seems no effort of any kind was made to sketch out what kind of deal would have been acceptable to what numbers of opposition MPs. If that is true, then that would be an unforgivable omission.
Labour simply have to be better than the government...
...With this shower, that is not hard.
They haven't yet managed it though.
They won a vote in the Commons.
The Tories have won many votes in the Commons, what of it?
Not with 258 seats and not this week on Brexit. We need a party that can stitch together wins by working with others. The evidence suggests that Labour might be better placed despite the disadvantages.
I'm pretty sure Labour can't win an overall majority. If they're going to enter government, it'll be a rainbow coalition of Lab, SNP, LD, PC, Green.
We will get to find out, can’t be worse than the blue rainbow we currently have
I strongly suspect that it would be.
Worth a go, the last time the Tories warned about Labour led coalitions...
To be fair to Cameron he was just a PR man with a message. And it worked. The question one has to ask is why so much of the British (commercial) establishment rallied around him at the 2015 election in order to stop Red (now looking decidedly pink) Ed Miliband. Many of whom are now completely beside themselves about Brexit. The Financial Times comment pages are full of them I have no sympathy.
Just seen a quite brilliant documentary, 3 Identical Strangers about triplets reared apart in the US. Nice to see that it was directed by a Brit, Tim Wardle, following in the great tradition of British documentary film making. Something we ought to celebrate rather more in this era of fake news.
Thanks for that, it has come through as a BAFTA screener, so will put it to the top of the pile.
Labour simply have to be better than the government...
...With this shower, that is not hard.
They haven't yet managed it though.
They won a vote in the Commons.
The Tories have won many votes in the Commons, what of it?
Not with 258 seats and not this week on Brexit. We need a party that can stitch together wins by working with others. The evidence suggests that Labour might be better placed despite the disadvantages.
I'm pretty sure Labour can't win an overall majority. If they're going to enter government, it'll be a rainbow coalition of Lab, SNP, LD, PC, Green.
We will get to find out, can’t be worse than the blue rainbow we currently have
I strongly suspect that it would be.
I don’t see the logic in this Government being crap, and therefore Corbyn will be a successful leader.
Labour simply have to be better than the government...
...With this shower, that is not hard.
They haven't yet managed it though.
They won a vote in the Commons.
The Tories have won many votes in the Commons, what of it?
Not with 258 seats and not this week on Brexit. We need a party that can stitch together wins by working with others. The evidence suggests that Labour might be better placed despite the disadvantages.
I'm pretty sure Labour can't win an overall majority. If they're going to enter government, it'll be a rainbow coalition of Lab, SNP, LD, PC, Green.
We will get to find out, can’t be worse than the blue rainbow we currently have
Been out at pop-up restaurant hell. May to resign Tuesday? What do the Sundays reckon?
That would be a shame. She's not been great but she deserves better than to be forced out by some of the most unpleasant pieces of shit politics has thrown up for yeas
I don't think McDonnell and Corbyn have much to do with it Roger
Sunday Times reporting May is likely to delay the vote. I was under the impression it could only now be delayed with a vote in the commons to agree to such a delay. Am I mistaken?
I’d true, this really underlines that she has really been in the bunker these past few months. Out of touch and hideously poorly advised.
Hideously poorly advised by her hideously hand-picked advisors.....
Sadly I can see Sarah Woolaston and Heidi Allen abstaining on a vonc, not that it would matter if the DUP also supported it - the government would fall anyway. I suspect that one of both of them might defect to the LibDems.
I see what you mean. They're both in isolated Remain voting areas within Leave voting parts of the country, and the Lib Dems were a strong second in both constituencies pre-Coalition. They'd have a good chance of surviving an election.
And, of course, South Cambridgeshire DC - including Allen's constituency - fell to the Lib Dems fairly spectacularly this year (Con 27->11, LD 11->30).
Very febrile on here tonight. Fundamentally though nothing has changed since Chequers. It ought to have been clear to whips then that nothing would go through without opposition support. Nothing has been done towards that end. Too late now.
Nothing will go through. Period. There is no majority in the HoC for any available Brexit deal. It's either no deal or remain.
I tend to agree. I suppose we will have to wait for the memoirs. But, on the surface, it seems no effort of any kind was made to sketch out what kind of deal would have been acceptable to what numbers of opposition MPs. If that is true, then that would be an unforgivable omission.
May has never attempted to bring opposition MPs on board, and she hasn't made much effort to bring her own MPs on board either. Her style is to make decisions in private consulting only a small coterie of advisers and then spring them on everyone else when it is too late to change anything. This worked quite well when she was Home Secretary but it's hopeless for something as controversial and high profile as Brexit.
Thousands of anti-fascists are expected to attend a central London protest on Sunday to counter a march by the far-right campaigner Tommy Robinson and his supporters. The counter-protest has been organised by the Labour-supporting Momentum group and partners.
I am sure everybody will have a robust but peaceful debate over the issues...
Ah yes a peaceful debate - will they be wearing yellow ?
Daily Mail reporting joint ticket of BoJo and Rudd. It is April 1st?
I have read tomorrows Mail on Sunday and it is one of several stupid suggestions.
It is pure satire and you seem to have fallen for it
The more alarming issue for me is the number of our most important companies backing the deal including Airbus and the car manufacturers and who are going to be ignored
Daily Mail reporting joint ticket of BoJo and Rudd. It is April 1st?
I have read tomorrows Mail on Sunday and it is one of several stupid suggestions.
It is pure satire and you seem to have fallen for it
The more alarming issue for me is the number of our most important companies backing the deal including Airbus and the car manufacturers and who are going to be ignored
What do you not understand about "It is April the 1st?"
Daily Mail reporting joint ticket of BoJo and Rudd. It is April 1st?
I have read tomorrows Mail on Sunday and it is one of several stupid suggestions.
It is pure satire and you seem to have fallen for it
The more alarming issue for me is the number of our most important companies backing the deal including Airbus and the car manufacturers and who are going to be ignored
May did not bring people with her and the backstop is seriously flawed. Oh well, in a week we’ll know. Goodnight.
I don’t think May can stay if her deal is rejected. Assuming the leadership vote progresses to the membership stage, the winning candidate will be the one that refuses a referendum and confirms that No Deal is an option. Assuming that leads to 20 Tory MPs abandoning the whip, they will then have a choice between putting Corbyn into Number 10 in the vain hope of obtaining a referendum, or triggering an election that will see them lose their seats.
Thus we totter towards Hard Brexit.
May will not resign, 51% of Tory MPs minimum will back her and as long as she stays PM No Deal is unlikely. If she went though it is easier for the ERG to get a candidate in the final 2 who could then win the membership
I wonder what the EU might do if May goes by back to ask for more concessions .
In light of the ECJ decision on Monday , if that confirms the AG advice then if I was advising them !
Give some clarity re the backstop , set up an immediate working group to explore tech solutions etc
They need to give just enough to look constructive but not enough to get the deal over the line , and then they wait and hope it will either be a softer Brexit or a second EU vote .
Remain still under 50% so May just needs the Don't Knows to get behind her which will become more likely once the market crashes, companies start to make plans to relocate and Sturgeon makes plans for indyref2 which will occur the more No Deal looks likely and most voters do not want a bitterly divisive EUref2
Labour simply have to be better than the government...
...With this shower, that is not hard.
They haven't yet managed it though.
They won a vote in the Commons.
The Tories have won many votes in the Commons, what of it?
Not with 258 seats and not this week on Brexit. We need a party that can stitch together wins by working with others. The evidence suggests that Labour might be better placed despite the disadvantages.
I'm pretty sure Labour can't win an overall majority. If they're going to enter government, it'll be a rainbow coalition of Lab, SNP, LD, PC, Green.
We will get to find out, can’t be worse than the blue rainbow we currently have
One of the first decisions a left-of-centre rainbow coalition would have to make would be whether to bring in proportional representation for future elections. On the one hand it could make it easier for them to stay in power, but the danger from their point of view would be if it helped the Tories + UKIP to win a majority.
Daily Mail reporting joint ticket of BoJo and Rudd. It is April 1st?
I have read tomorrows Mail on Sunday and it is one of several stupid suggestions.
It is pure satire and you seem to have fallen for it
The more alarming issue for me is the number of our most important companies backing the deal including Airbus and the car manufacturers and who are going to be ignored
May did not bring people with her and the backstop is seriously flawed. Oh well, in a week we’ll know. Goodnight.
May got the only Deal which potentially 60%+ of the country could grudgingly get behind.
As Yougov put it Deal beat No Deal 65% to 35%, Remain v No Deal is almost neck and neck on 52% to 48% and will bring this country to near civil war.
If MPs reject this Deal we will be in the greatest constitutional and national crisis since 1940 and they will be responsible for the forces they will unleash which could literally tear the country apart
Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.
May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
Err, enough Torys will abstain or vote against. This is their plan seeing as May would win a Tory leadership challenge,
Any Tory MP who did that would face deselection!
What if Labour promised a referendum? Might be worth it.
It would rupture labour as much as the conservatives
I seriously doubt that. I expect all Labour MPs to effortlessly back a VONC. The question is could they entice a handful of abstentions if they promise a referendum.
Len Mccluskey has told labour unite oppose a second referendum as it would decimate labours support in leave areas
Yes, a second referendum would force Labour actually to commit to a position.
I don’t think May can stay if her deal is rejected. Assuming the leadership vote progresses to the membership stage, the winning candidate will be the one that refuses a referendum and confirms that No Deal is an option. Assuming that leads to 20 Tory MPs abandoning the whip, they will then have a choice between putting Corbyn into Number 10 in the vain hope of obtaining a referendum, or triggering an election that will see them lose their seats.
Thus we totter towards Hard Brexit.
May will not resign, 51% of Tory MPs minimum will back her and as long as she stays PM No Deal is unlikely. If she went though it is easier for the ERG to get a candidate in the final 2 who could then win the membership
51% of Tory MPs will back her. In a secret ballot. After presiding over a potentially record defeat. On the flagship, possibly only, policy ? Are you that confident ?
Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.
May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
Err, enough Torys will abstain or vote against. This is their plan seeing as May would win a Tory leadership challenge,
Any Tory MP who did that would face deselection!
What if Labour promised a referendum? Might be worth it.
It would rupture labour as much as the conservatives
I seriously doubt that. I expect all Labour MPs to effortlessly back a VONC. The question is could they entice a handful of abstentions if they promise a referendum.
Len Mccluskey has told labour unite oppose a second referendum as it would decimate labours support in leave areas
Yes, a second referendum would force Labour actually to commit to a position.
It would be more remarkable if it forced the government to commit to a position, even if only the position to hold another referendum.
The final two in a leadership contest will be Gove v Raab .
Gove in the final round will have over 200 MPs backing him , that will be the more moderate wing plus Tory Remainers.
It’s a case of a snake versus a moron . I’d go for the snake Gove who hasn’t as yet become a delusional no dealer .
The only thing that could persuade me to vote for Corbyn is if the alternative is Gove.
But you are a teacher and teachers have a completely irrational hatred of Gove. As is shown by the fact you would prefer economic ruin under Corbyn.
There is nothing irrational about hating a man who made such a shambles of exam reform that the marking criteria had to be amended after the exams had been set, deliberately ignoring the advice of academic experts, and then lying about what they had said, promising extra money and failing to deliver it, and forcing us to teach a curriculum full of errors due to his insistence that his knowledge was supreme despite having a poor degree in a specialist subject, which one way and another left the average candidate score in History GCSEs last year at 27%. Or would you consider that a dazzling success?
As for economic ruin, he's quite capable of providing that on his own - or had you not noticed he's driven the entire university sector to the brink of bankruptcy by his crass market manipulation?
It is very telling I think that those who work most closely with him and see the results of his hubris at first hand hate him the most.
And yet those who dealt with him both at Justice and now at DEFRA consider him one of the best ministers they ever worked with. Not just those working for him but those dealing with him from the other side of the table. He genuinely understands the issues and tries to come up with real solutions not just things that look good politically.
Maybe it is something about teachers. Of course I am biased because I have an extremely low opinion of the teaching profession in general for their part (along with successive Governments in driving down educational standards.
Time to forget all this nonsense and return the UK to sanity . Time to put Brexit out of its misery !
Remain 52% solves zilch and could easily be overturned given the undecideds
Remain 52% solves everything except the existence of narked off Leave supporters with a betrayal narrative, but there are no options that solve this problem. Even No Deal would create a betrayal narrative.
Yes, a second referendum would force Labour actually to commit to a position.
Dunno, I don't see why the leadership couldn't be non-commital if they wanted to.
If it were the three option vote I suggested, I don’t see how they could avoid taking a position. It is already a truism that no one has a clue what Labour’s position is on Brexit (other than to say how awful the Tories are), but equivocating when one of the options is no deal, and one remain just would not fly.
I don’t think May can stay if her deal is rejected. Assuming the leadership vote progresses to the membership stage, the winning candidate will be the one that refuses a referendum and confirms that No Deal is an option. Assuming that leads to 20 Tory MPs abandoning the whip, they will then have a choice between putting Corbyn into Number 10 in the vain hope of obtaining a referendum, or triggering an election that will see them lose their seats.
Thus we totter towards Hard Brexit.
May will not resign, 51% of Tory MPs minimum will back her and as long as she stays PM No Deal is unlikely. If she went though it is easier for the ERG to get a candidate in the final 2 who could then win the membership
51% of Tory MPs will back her. In a secret ballot. After presiding over a potentially record defeat On the flagship, possibly only, policy ? Are you that confident ?
There is NO alternative other than the economic devastation of No Deal leading to potentially the worst recession since the 1930s, food and medicine shortages, riots, chaos in Ireland and Scotland voting for independence or an EUref2 so divisive this country could soon be on the verge of civil war with a far right surge if Remain scrapes home or if free movement is left in place with BINO.
I repeat we are heading for the greatest constitutional and national crisis since 1940, the EU will not budge an inch on any Deal without the backstop. As MPs stare into the abyss if they vote down the Deal on the first vote I think May could still win it on the second vote. No alternative leader has anything better than May's Deal and most poll worse than she does and would be even more divisive
Yes, a second referendum would force Labour actually to commit to a position.
Dunno, I don't see why the leadership couldn't be non-commital if they wanted to.
If it were the three option vote I suggested, I don’t see how they could avoid taking a position. It is already a truism that no one has a clue what Labour’s position is on Brexit (other than to say how awful the Tories are), but equivocating when one of the options is no deal, and one remain just would not fly.
Just don't take a position. Let individuals do what they like.
Time to forget all this nonsense and return the UK to sanity . Time to put Brexit out of its misery !
Remain 52% solves zilch and could easily be overturned given the undecideds
Remain 52% solves everything except the existence of narked off Leave supporters with a betrayal narrative, but there are no options that solve this problem. Even No Deal would create a betrayal narrative.
No Remain 52% will soon see Farage and Tommy Robinson UKIP on around a quarter of the vote, entrenching the far right in our national politics much as it is on the continent
I don’t think May can stay if her deal is rejected. Assuming the leadership vote progresses to the membership stage, the winning candidate will be the one that refuses a referendum and confirms that No Deal is an option. Assuming that leads to 20 Tory MPs abandoning the whip, they will then have a choice between putting Corbyn into Number 10 in the vain hope of obtaining a referendum, or triggering an election that will see them lose their seats.
Thus we totter towards Hard Brexit.
May will not resign, 51% of Tory MPs minimum will back her and as long as she stays PM No Deal is unlikely. If she went though it is easier for the ERG to get a candidate in the final 2 who could then win the membership
51% of Tory MPs will back her. In a secret ballot. After presiding over a potentially record defeat On the flagship, possibly only, policy ? Are you that confident ?
There is NO alternative other than the economic devastation of No Deal leading to potentially the worst recession since the 1930s, food and medicine shortages, riots, chaos in Ireland and Scotland voting for independence or an EUref2 so divisive this country could soon be on the verge of civil war with a far right surge if Remain scrapes home or if free movement is left in place with BINO.
I repeat we are heading for the greatest constitutional and national crisis since 1940, the EU will not budge an inch on any Deal without the backstop. As MPs stare into the abyss if they vote down the Deal on the first vote I think May could still win it on the second vote. No alternative leader has anything better than May's Deal and most poll worse than she does and would be even more divisive
Oh, I agree with you on all that. I simply am not so certain that the Conservative MPs see it as you do
Time to forget all this nonsense and return the UK to sanity . Time to put Brexit out of its misery !
Remain 52% solves zilch and could easily be overturned given the undecideds
Remain 52% solves everything except the existence of narked off Leave supporters with a betrayal narrative, but there are no options that solve this problem. Even No Deal would create a betrayal narrative.
No Remain 52% will soon see Farage and Tommy Robinson UKIP on around a quarter of the vote, entrenching the far right in our national politics much as it is on the continent
It's a free country, they can run on Brexit and see if they can get a majority. I doubt we'll see the particular UKIP you suggest, though...
I don’t think May can stay if her deal is rejected. Assuming the leadership vote progresses to the membership stage, the winning candidate will be the one that refuses a referendum and confirms that No Deal is an option. Assuming that leads to 20 Tory MPs abandoning the whip, they will then have a choice between putting Corbyn into Number 10 in the vain hope of obtaining a referendum, or triggering an election that will see them lose their seats.
Thus we totter towards Hard Brexit.
May will not resign, 51% of Tory MPs minimum will back her and as long as she stays PM No Deal is unlikely. If she went though it is easier for the ERG to get a candidate in the final 2 who could then win the membership
51% of Tory MPs will back her. In a secret ballot. After presiding over a potentially record defeat On the flagship, possibly only, policy ? Are you that confident ?
There is NO alternative other than the economic devastation of No Deal leading to potentially the worst recession since the 1930s, food and medicine shortages, riots, chaos in Ireland and Scotland voting for independence or an EUref2 so divisive this country could soon be on the verge of civil war with a far right surge if Remain scrapes home or if free movement is left in place with BINO.
I repeat we are heading for the greatest constitutional and national crisis since 1940, the EU will not budge an inch on any Deal without the backstop. As MPs stare into the abyss if they vote down the Deal on the first vote I think May could still win it on the second vote. No alternative leader has anything better than May's Deal and most poll worse than she does and would be even more divisive
Oh, I agree with you on all that. I simply am not so certain that the Conservative MPs see it as you do
Over 200 do as they are already voting for the Deal, once the chaos ensures if the Deal is not passed on first vote I suspect more will along with a number of Labour MPs too
I will take a punt here, but pretty sure myself that the MV vote will be pulled tomorrow or monday afternoon.
Who knows what happens next...
You maybe right but for May a defeat gives her a bit more leverage with the EU , she doesn’t have much to begin with but not holding the vote means she has even less .
I don’t think May can stay if her deal is rejected. Assuming the leadership vote progresses to the membership stage, the winning candidate will be the one that refuses a referendum and confirms that No Deal is an option. Assuming that leads to 20 Tory MPs abandoning the whip, they will then have a choice between putting Corbyn into Number 10 in the vain hope of obtaining a referendum, or triggering an election that will see them lose their seats.
Thus we totter towards Hard Brexit.
May will not resign, 51% of Tory MPs minimum will back her and as long as she stays PM No Deal is unlikely. If she went though it is easier for the ERG to get a candidate in the final 2 who could then win the membership
51% of Tory MPs will back her. In a secret ballot. After presiding over a potentially record defeat On the flagship, possibly only, policy ? Are you that confident ?
There is NO alternative other than the economic devastation of No Deal leading to potentially the worst recession since the 1930s, food and medicine shortages, riots, chaos in Ireland and Scotland voting for independence or an EUref2 so divisive this country could soon be on the verge of civil war with a far right surge if Remain scrapes home or if free movement is left in place with BINO.
I repeat we are heading for the greatest constitutional and national crisis since 1940, the EU will not budge an inch on any Deal without the backstop. As MPs stare into the abyss if they vote down the Deal on the first vote I think May could still win it on the second vote. No alternative leader has anything better than May's Deal and most poll worse than she does and would be even more divisive
Oh, I agree with you on all that. I simply am not so certain that the Conservative MPs see it as you do
Over 200 do as they are already voting for the Deal, once the chaos ensures if the Deal is not passed on first vote I suspect more will along with a number of Labour MPs too
Yes, but will 200 vote for May in a secret ballot ? We actually aren't that far apart ,me and you ,on our Brexit views .
I will take a punt here, but pretty sure myself that the MV vote will be pulled tomorrow or monday afternoon.
Who knows what happens next...
You maybe right but for May a defeat gives her a bit more leverage with the EU , she doesn’t have much to begin with but not holding the vote means she has even less .
I see what you are saying, but the EU officials and pols she is dealing with have been, so to speak, around the block. If she pulls the vote they will know as well as she, that it had to be because she would lose.
One thing that unites politicians is an understanding of votes and not having enough of them.
Yes, but will 200 vote for May in a secret ballot ? We actually aren't that far apart ,me and you ,on our Brexit views .
I think it's a lower hurdle to vote for TMay in a secret ballot than her deal in a public vote. They have no idea who would win a leadership election, and whoever did win it would end up in the same box as TMay, only with less time, and probably having made promises to win the election that closed off all remaining routes out if the treacle. Even if there was some alternative who polled better than TMay right now, which there doesn't seem to be, it's not clear that they'll still be ahead after 6 weeks of the Conservative Party fiddling with itself while Rome burns.
I will take a punt here, but pretty sure myself that the MV vote will be pulled tomorrow or monday afternoon.
Who knows what happens next...
You maybe right but for May a defeat gives her a bit more leverage with the EU , she doesn’t have much to begin with but not holding the vote means she has even less .
I see what you are saying, but the EU officials and pols she is dealing with have been, so to speak, around the block. If she pulls the vote they will know as well as she, that it had to be because she would lose.
One thing that unites politicians is an understanding of votes and not having enough of them.
what about self interest? - in terms of furthering their interests rather than the nation's
I don’t think May can stay if her deal is rejected. Assuming the leadership vote progresses to the membership stage, the winning candidate will be the one that refuses a referendum and confirms that No Deal is an option. Assuming that leads to 20 Tory MPs abandoning the whip, they will then have a choice between putting Corbyn into Number 10 in the vain hope of obtaining a referendum, or triggering an election that will see them lose their seats.
Thus we totter towards Hard Brexit.
May will not resign, 51% of Tory MPs minimum will back her and as long as she stays PM No Deal is unlikely. If she went though it is easier for the ERG to get a candidate in the final 2 who could then win the membership
51% of Tory MPs will back her. In a secret ballot. After presiding over a potentially record defeat On the flagship, possibly only, policy ? Are you that confident ?
There is NO alternative other than the economic devastation of No Deal leading to potentially the worst recession since the 1930s, food and medicine shortages, riots, chaos in Ireland and Scotland voting for independence or an EUref2 so divisive this country could soon be on the verge of civil war with a far right surge if Remain scrapes home or if free movement is left in place with BINO.
I repeat we are heading for the greatest constitutional and national crisis since 1940, the EU will not budge an inch on any Deal without the backstop. As MPs stare into the abyss if they vote down the Deal on the first vote I think May could still win it on the second vote. No alternative leader has anything better than May's Deal and most poll worse than she does and would be even more divisive
Oh, I agree with you on all that. I simply am not so certain that the Conservative MPs see it as you do
Over 200 do as they are already voting for the Deal, once the chaos ensures if the Deal is not passed on first vote I suspect more will along with a number of Labour MPs too
Yes, but will 200 vote for May in a secret ballot ? We actually aren't that far apart ,me and you ,on our Brexit views .
I think so, May will win because of TINA, as Thatcher said 'There is no alternative'
God help us if we end up with No Deal and Raab his complete lack of understanding of the cross channel chaos of No Deal is bad enough as Brexit Secretary let alone PM.
If we did go to No Deal I think Boris or Davis more likely anyway, the Cabinet would all go down with May and the Deal
anyone is better than May who's proved to be devious, duplicitous and indecisive with it
May has got the only Deal on the table, there is no alternative other than economic disaster or the deep division and surge of the far right from BINO or a narrow Remain win in EUref2
I don’t think May can stay if her deal is rejected. Assuming the leadership vote progresses to the membership stage, the winning candidate will be the one that refuses a referendum and confirms that No Deal is an option. Assuming that leads to 20 Tory MPs abandoning the whip, they will then have a choice between putting Corbyn into Number 10 in the vain hope of obtaining a referendum, or triggering an election that will see them lose their seats.
Thus we totter towards Hard Brexit.
May will not resign, 51% of Tory MPs minimum will back her and as long as she stays PM No Deal is unlikely. If she went though it is easier for the ERG to get a candidate in the final 2 who could then win the membership
51% of Tory MPs will back her. In a secret ballot. After presiding over a potentially record defeat On the flagship, possibly only, policy ? Are you that confident ?
There is NO alternative other than the economic devastation of No Deal leading to potentially the worst recession since the 1930s, food and medicine shortages, riots, chaos in Ireland and Scotland voting for independence or an EUref2 so divisive this country could soon be on the verge of civil war with a far right surge if Remain scrapes home or if free movement is left in place with BINO.
I repeat we are heading for the greatest constitutional and national crisis since 1940, the EU will not budge an inch on any Deal without the backstop. As MPs stare into the abyss if they vote down the Deal on the first vote I think May could still win it on the second vote. No alternative leader has anything better than May's Deal and most poll worse than she does and would be even more divisive
I don’t think May can stay if her deal is rejected. Assuming the leadership vote progresses to the membership stage, the winning candidate will be the one that refuses a referendum and confirms that No Deal is an option. Assuming that leads to 20 Tory MPs abandoning the whip, they will then have a choice between putting Corbyn into Number 10 in the vain hope of obtaining a referendum, or triggering an election that will see them lose their seats.
Thus we totter towards Hard Brexit.
May will not resign, 51% of Tory MPs minimum will back her and as long as she stays PM No Deal is unlikely. If she went though it is easier for the ERG to get a candidate in the final 2 who could then win the membership
51% of Tory MPs will back her. In a secret ballot. After presiding over a potentially record defeat On the flagship, possibly only, policy ? Are you that confident ?
There is NO alternative other than the economic devastation of No Deal leading to potentially the worst recession since the 1930s, food and medicine shortages, riots, chaos in Ireland and Scotland voting for independence or an EUref2 so divisive this country could soon be on the verge of civil war with a far right surge if Remain scrapes home or if free movement is left in place with BINO.
I repeat we are heading for the greatest constitutional and national crisis since 1940, the EU will not budge an inch on any Deal without the backstop. As MPs stare into the abyss if they vote down the Deal on the first vote I think May could still win it on the second vote. No alternative leader has anything better than May's Deal and most poll worse than she does and would be even more divisive
Oh, I agree with you on all that. I simply am not so certain that the Conservative MPs see it as you do
Over 200 do as they are already voting for the Deal, once the chaos ensures if the Deal is not passed on first vote I suspect more will along with a number of Labour MPs too
Yes, but will 200 vote for May in a secret ballot ? We actually aren't that far apart ,me and you ,on our Brexit views .
I think so, May will win because of TINA, as Thatcher said 'There is no alternative'
Fair enough . Reckon we will know this time next week . I wish you well my right of centre friend .
I don’t think May can stay if her deal is rejected. Assuming the leadership vote progresses to the membership stage, the winning candidate will be the one that refuses a referendum and confirms that No Deal is an option. Assuming that leads to 20 Tory MPs abandoning the whip, they will then have a choice between putting Corbyn into Number 10 in the vain hope of obtaining a referendum, or triggering an election that will see them lose their seats.
Thus we totter towards Hard Brexit.
May will not resign, 51% of Tory MPs minimum will back her and as long as she stays PM No Deal is unlikely. If she went though it is easier for the ERG to get a candidate in the final 2 who could then win the membership
51% of Tory MPs will back her. In a secret ballot. After presiding over a potentially record defeat On the flagship, possibly only, policy ? Are you that confident ?
There is NO alternative other than the economic devastation of No Deal leading to potentially the worst recession since the 1930s, food and medicine shortages, riots, chaos in Ireland and Scotland voting for independence or an EUref2 so divisive this country could soon be on the verge of civil war with a far right surge if Remain scrapes home or if free movement is left in place with BINO.
I repeat we are heading for the greatest constitutional and national crisis since 1940, the EU will not budge an inch on any Deal without the backstop. As MPs stare into the abyss if they vote down the Deal on the first vote I think May could still win it on the second vote. No alternative leader has anything better than May's Deal and most poll worse than she does and would be even more divisive
oh dear god.... give it a rest
"economic devastation"
FFS get a grip man
No it is about time those advocating No Deal got a grip and faced up to the potential consequences of their actions
I don’t think May can stay if her deal is rejected. Assuming the leadership vote progresses to the membership stage, the winning candidate will be the one that refuses a referendum and confirms that No Deal is an option. Assuming that leads to 20 Tory MPs abandoning the whip, they will then have a choice between putting Corbyn into Number 10 in the vain hope of obtaining a referendum, or triggering an election that will see them lose their seats.
Thus we totter towards Hard Brexit.
May will not resign, 51% of Tory MPs minimum will back her and as long as she stays PM No Deal is unlikely. If she went though it is easier for the ERG to get a candidate in the final 2 who could then win the membership
51% of Tory MPs will back her. In a secret ballot. After presiding over a potentially record defeat On the flagship, possibly only, policy ? Are you that confident ?
There is NO alternative other than the economic devastation of No Deal leading to potentially the worst recession since the 1930s, food and medicine shortages, riots, chaos in Ireland and Scotland voting for independence or an EUref2 so divisive this country could soon be on the verge of civil war with a far right surge if Remain scrapes home or if free movement is left in place with BINO.
I repeat we are heading for the greatest constitutional and national crisis since 1940, the EU will not budge an inch on any Deal without the backstop. As MPs stare into the abyss if they vote down the Deal on the first vote I think May could still win it on the second vote. No alternative leader has anything better than May's Deal and most poll worse than she does and would be even more divisive
Oh, I agree with you on all that. I simply am not so certain that the Conservative MPs see it as you do
Over 200 do as they are already voting for the Deal, once the chaos ensures if the Deal is not passed on first vote I suspect more will along with a number of Labour MPs too
Yes, but will 200 vote for May in a secret ballot ? We actually aren't that far apart ,me and you ,on our Brexit views .
I think so, May will win because of TINA, as Thatcher said 'There is no alternative'
Fair enough . Reckon we will know this time next week . I wish you well my right of centre friend .
Thanks but it is the whole country which will need to be wished well if I am wrong, we really will be staring into the abyss
If vote is pulled on Tuesday then surely there are major logistical and betting implications.
Vote can't be during EU Council Meeting (when May not here) so earliest date for vote then Mon 17 Dec.
Suppose 48 letters go into Brady immediately after Govt defeat. He surely wouldn't announce contest late at night so earliest announcement Tue 18th. Implies Con Party VONC on Wed 19th, the day before Parliament goes into recess. Suppose May loses - it would be farcical as she'd be out as Con leader but no way of even starting replacement process. (Also very unlikely to hold Con Party VONC on a PMQs day - as damaging to Party).
All the above implies Brady might feel compelled to delay announcement till Parliament returns in Jan.
Also - if EU Council makes any concessions these would have to be presented to Parliament and debated before the vote - making vote on Mon 17th unlikely.
Conclusion - looks entirely possible that if vote is pulled on Tues then nothing further will happen domestically until Jan.
I don’t think May can stay if her deal is rejected. Assuming the leadership vote progresses to the membership stage, the winning candidate will be the one that refuses a referendum and confirms that No Deal is an option. Assuming that leads to 20 Tory MPs abandoning the whip, they will then have a choice between putting Corbyn into Number 10 in the vain hope of obtaining a referendum, or triggering an election that will see them lose their seats.
Thus we totter towards Hard Brexit.
May will not resign, 51% of Tory MPs minimum will back her and as long as she stays PM No Deal is unlikely. If she went though it is easier for the ERG to get a candidate in the final 2 who could then win the membership
51% of Tory MPs will back her. In a secret ballot. After presiding over a potentially record defeat On the flagship, possibly only, policy ? Are you that confident ?
There is NO alternative other than the economic devastation of No Deal leading to potentially the worst recession since the 1930s, food and medicine shortages, riots, chaos in Ireland and Scotland voting for independence or an EUref2 so divisive this country could soon be on the verge of civil war with a far right surge if Remain scrapes home or if free movement is left in place with BINO.
I repeat we are heading for the greatest constitutional and national crisis since 1940, the EU will not budge an inch on any Deal without the backstop. As MPs stare into the abyss if they vote down the Deal on the first vote I think May could still win it on the second vote. No alternative leader has anything better than May's Deal and most poll worse than she does and would be even more divisive
oh dear god.... give it a rest
"economic devastation"
FFS get a grip man
I am afraid HYUFD does rather undermine his case with extreme hyperbole.
Although the whole thing is driving us nuts it has become compulsive viewing ! This week could be one of the most dramatic since 2016.
A question to fellow political junkies how will you survive after Brexit ?
Don't worry about that, absent a new referendum won by Remain, there is no "after brexit". It'll just go on and on.
You think it would end after remain wins a referendum?
LOl - no fecking way
In terms of people arguing about it on the internet, no, they'd keep arguing about it on the internet. But in terms of actual, practical stuff happening, nobody is going to be opening that box in the foreseeable future.
I don’t think May can stay if her deal is rejected. Assuming the leadership vote progresses to the membership stage, the winning candidate will be the one that refuses a referendum and confirms that No Deal is an option. Assuming that leads to 20 Tory MPs abandoning the whip, they will then have a choice between putting Corbyn into Number 10 in the vain hope of obtaining a referendum, or triggering an election that will see them lose their seats.
Thus we totter towards Hard Brexit.
May will not resign, 51% of Tory MPs minimum will back her and as long as she stays PM No Deal is unlikely. If she went though it is easier for the ERG to get a candidate in the final 2 who could then win the membership
51% of Tory MPs will back her. In a secret ballot. After presiding over a potentially record defeat On the flagship, possibly only, policy ? Are you that confident ?
There is NO alternative other than the economic devastation of No Deal leading to potentially the worst recession since the 1930s, food and medicine shortages, riots, chaos in Ireland and Scotland voting for independence or an EUref2 so divisive this country could soon be on the verge of civil war with a far right surge if Remain scrapes home or if free movement is left in place with BINO.
I repeat we are heading for the greatest constitutional and national crisis since 1940, the EU will not budge an inch on any Deal without the backstop. As MPs stare into the abyss if they vote down the Deal on the first vote I think May could still win it on the second vote. No alternative leader has anything better than May's Deal and most poll worse than she does and would be even more divisive
Oh, I agree with you on all that. I simply am not so certain that the Conservative MPs see it as you do
Over 200 do as they are already voting for the Deal, once the chaos ensures if the Deal is not passed on first vote I suspect more will along with a number of Labour MPs too
Yes, but will 200 vote for May in a secret ballot ? We actually aren't that far apart ,me and you ,on our Brexit views .
I think so, May will win because of TINA, as Thatcher said 'There is no alternative'
Fair enough . Reckon we will know this time next week . I wish you well my right of centre friend .
Thanks but it is the whole country which will need to be wished well if I am wrong, we really will be staring into the abyss
If vote is pulled on Tuesday then surely there are major logistical and betting implications.
Vote can't be during EU Council Meeting (when May not here) so earliest date for vote then Mon 17 Dec.
Suppose 48 letters go into Brady immediately after Govt defeat. He surely wouldn't announce contest late at night so earliest announcement Tue 18th. Implies Con Party VONC on Wed 19th, the day before Parliament goes into recess. Suppose May loses - it would be farcical as she'd be out as Con leader but no way of even starting replacement process. (Also very unlikely to hold Con Party VONC on a PMQs day - as damaging to Party).
All the above implies Brady might feel compelled to delay announcement till Parliament returns in Jan.
Also - if EU Council makes any concessions these would have to be presented to Parliament and debated before the vote - making vote on Mon 17th unlikely.
Conclusion - looks entirely possible that if vote is pulled on Tues then nothing further will happen domestically until Jan.
Is there anything to stop them holding their vote on the first few days of the recess?
Teachers thought that, for the first year. Until he started making avoidable mistakes, then disastrous mistakes, through a refusal to listen to advice.
He was at Justice for less than a year. And don't be fooled by Nick Palmer's admiration. He is proving very controversial at DEFRA, again because he simply won't listen to advice.
Comments
The DUP has said, in words of one syllable on TV, that they will vote for the Govt in a Vote of No Confidence if Govt loses Tuesday's vote.
I guess it's possible a Con backbencher may not support the Govt in a VONC - but as noted above if they don't they will be out of the Party.
And it'll take 7 backbenchers to vote against to defeat the Govt if all other parties vote against.
Indeed it might well be more - Hermon may well back the Govt, there may be a chance of Woodcock and Flynn may not be able to attend.
It is pure satire and you seem to have fallen for it
The more alarming issue for me is the number of our most important companies backing the deal including Airbus and the car manufacturers and who are going to be ignored
In light of the ECJ decision on Monday , if that confirms the AG advice then if I was advising them !
Give some clarity re the backstop , set up an immediate working group to explore tech solutions etc
They need to give just enough to look constructive but not enough to get the deal over the line , and then they wait and hope it will either be a softer Brexit or a second EU vote .
Remain 52
Leave 40
Time to forget all this nonsense and return the UK to sanity . Time to put Brexit out of its misery !
As Yougov put it Deal beat No Deal 65% to 35%, Remain v No Deal is almost neck and neck on 52% to 48% and will bring this country to near civil war.
If MPs reject this Deal we will be in the greatest constitutional and national crisis since 1940 and they will be responsible for the forces they will unleash which could literally tear the country apart
The fairest way is to have two votes spread over a week .
The first has
Remain.
Leave with Mays deal.
Leave say without a withdrawal agreement and future framework .
The top two go to a run off unless one option gets over 50%.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1071550688151392256
Maybe it is something about teachers. Of course I am biased because I have an extremely low opinion of the teaching profession in general for their part (along with successive Governments in driving down educational standards.
It is already a truism that no one has a clue what Labour’s position is on Brexit (other than to say how awful the Tories are), but equivocating when one of the options is no deal, and one remain just would not fly.
I repeat we are heading for the greatest constitutional and national crisis since 1940, the EU will not budge an inch on any Deal without the backstop. As MPs stare into the abyss if they vote down the Deal on the first vote I think May could still win it on the second vote. No alternative leader has anything better than May's Deal and most poll worse than she does and would be even more divisive
Who knows what happens next...
Although the whole thing is driving us nuts it has become compulsive viewing ! This week could be one of the most dramatic since 2016.
A question to fellow political junkies how will you survive after Brexit ?
One thing that unites politicians is an understanding of votes and not having enough of them.
If we did go to No Deal I think Boris or Davis more likely anyway, the Cabinet would all go down with May and the Deal
"economic devastation"
FFS get a grip man
LOl - no fecking way
Scratches head
Talk about tribal....
Vote can't be during EU Council Meeting (when May not here) so earliest date for vote then Mon 17 Dec.
Suppose 48 letters go into Brady immediately after Govt defeat. He surely wouldn't announce contest late at night so earliest announcement Tue 18th. Implies Con Party VONC on Wed 19th, the day before Parliament goes into recess. Suppose May loses - it would be farcical as she'd be out as Con leader but no way of even starting replacement process. (Also very unlikely to hold Con Party VONC on a PMQs day - as damaging to Party).
All the above implies Brady might feel compelled to delay announcement till Parliament returns in Jan.
Also - if EU Council makes any concessions these would have to be presented to Parliament and debated before the vote - making vote on Mon 17th unlikely.
Conclusion - looks entirely possible that if vote is pulled on Tues then nothing further will happen domestically until Jan.
It certainly puts Brexit in perspective.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6474983/PETER-HITCHENS-Tories-drag-nation-abyss-say-did-warn-you.html
Teachers thought that, for the first year. Until he started making avoidable mistakes, then disastrous mistakes, through a refusal to listen to advice.
He was at Justice for less than a year. And don't be fooled by Nick Palmer's admiration. He is proving very controversial at DEFRA, again because he simply won't listen to advice.