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SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 9 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What LAB and CON party members think about Brexit?

On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary University to discuss his research on Labour and Conservative Party members – who they are, what they think about Brexit and what this means for the future of British politics.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 32,813
    First! Like Mrs May & Leave.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 32,813
    “Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.

    Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,840

    “Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.

    Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

    Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254

    “Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.

    Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

    A bunch of idiots, in connivance with the Speaker (quelle surprise), making it more difficult to deal with the problem should it occur.

    As was suggested last night, we could see an invocation of the Civil Contingencies Act if Parliament votes down the deal but then won't support no-deal planning. Having been a leading proponent of that particularly pernicious piece of Blairite over-reach, I'm sure Mrs Cooper will be delighted by its use?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 6,687
    Sandpit said:

    “Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.

    Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

    A bunch of idiots, in connivance with the Speaker (quelle surprise), making it more difficult to deal with the problem should it occur.

    As was suggested last night, we could see an invocation of the Civil Contingencies Act if Parliament votes down the deal but then won't support no-deal planning. Having been a leading proponent of that particularly pernicious piece of Blairite over-reach, I'm sure Mrs Cooper will be delighted by its use?
    It's OK, the sunlit uplands will soon be visible and we'll have all the extra money to give to the NHS.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 27,457
    Sean_F said:

    “Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.

    Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

    Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.
    What’s GONU?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,037

    Sean_F said:

    “Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.

    Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

    Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.
    What’s GONU?
    Government of National Unity.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,745
    Enjoyed the podcast. Think it was correct that Labour members are happy enough for the moment but that would change if conference policy wasn't followed through after May's deal is (presumably) voted down.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,621

    First! Like Mrs May & Leave.....

    I can't think of many things I would less describe as 'first' than Mrs May OR Leave.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 703

    Sean_F said:

    “Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.

    Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

    Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.
    What’s GONU?
    Or “remainers coup”.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 27,457
    RoyalBlue said:

    Sean_F said:

    “Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.

    Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

    Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.
    What’s GONU?
    Government of National Unity.
    Thanks.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860
    It's not urgent at all really. Tory and Labour remainers are closest to having a majority in the chamber, they just need to admit what they want and take appropriate action together.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,621
    A Labour council awards £190m contract to a company which refused to pay to remediate Grenfell style cladding...
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lendlease-builder-that-won-t-pay-to-remove-unsafe-grenfell-style-cladding-wins-190m-deal-2n7s5j92q

    Not a great message.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 513
    notme2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    “Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.

    Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

    Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.
    What’s GONU?
    Or “remainers coup”.
    Yeah... one could imagine the national unity but being in short supply if that happened..
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,942
    Looks serious. A full strike to be launched against congress?
  • As the Great She Elephant rightly said " you can't buck the market ". There is no majority in the House of Commons for ' no deal ' and hasn't been since the 2017 General Election. That's why Business has been promised a transition for well over a year and no serious ' no deal ' preparation has been done.

    All that's now happening is the politics coming back into alignment with those market fundamentals. All bubbles burst. Why so many PB Brexiters are getting angsty about it is beyond me.
  • DayTripperDayTripper Posts: 21
    I'm sure somebody at some time in the recent past must have made this observation already, but it seems that what we have at the minute is Schrodinger's Brexit, where (according to who you listen to) all outcomes are equally true.

    At some point, the box is going to have to be opened and we won't find out if the cat's alive or dead till then.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,622
    If, as looks highly likely, a great majority of the MPs who voted Leave in 2016 reject Theresa May's deal, they can hardly object if the whole matter is reopened. The Leave prospectus was based on the deal being straightforward, not on crashing out without a deal at all.

    Of those current MPs who were in Parliament at the time of the referendum vote and who voted Leave, I make it 90 who are currently opposed, 38 in favour (and just 12 of these are backbench MPs) and 9 still considering their position.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,989
    edited January 9
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,719
    FTPT

    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'd be pretty surprised if we don't leave on 29th March. I tend to believe whatever Mrs May says on this subject.

    She said back in 2016 that there would be a second Scottish Independence referendum if Scotland voted Remain and the UK voted Leave.
    Source?
    https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-brexit-full-text.html


    But if Brexit isn’t fatal to the European Union, we might find that it is fatal to the Union with Scotland. The SNP have already said that in the event that Britain votes to leave but Scotland votes to remain in the EU, they will press for another Scottish independence referendum

    It seems like May actually read the SNP holyrood manifesto unlike many on here.
  • GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 32,813
    Relations between Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond have hit rock bottom after the Scottish government conceded defeat in a legal battle over its “unlawful” handling of sexual misconduct complaints against the former first minister.

    After a bruising court verdict, Ms Sturgeon apologised publicly to the two female complainants, saying that the ruling was “not a victory for anyone”, and robustly defended the anti-harassment policies that she approved.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/salmond-seeks-revenge-3bk7scxjw
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,451

    GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.

    Will the EU side go for it even if there's no clear pathway to something harder?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,075
    Good morning, everyone.

    Agree with the morning consensus. The Cooper amendment is either meaningless or stupid.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,989

    GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.

    An A50 extension will be needed only if the deal fails to pass and to enable second referendum.

    A 15% probability IMO.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860

    If, as looks highly likely, a great majority of the MPs who voted Leave in 2016 reject Theresa May's deal, they can hardly object if the whole matter is reopened.

    Correction - they can hardly 'reasonably' object. I'm sure they can and will object but agreed, it is not unfair to reopen everything in that circumstance.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,621
    Very interesting podcast. Labour members younger brighter more numerous more ethnically diverse more geographically diverse more gender equal and 9/10 against leaving the EU. The Tories by contrast are bigoted old white male socially illiberal anti EU small in number and right wing.

    Who'd have guessed?

    Elect Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Labour have it in the bag
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 32,813
    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'd be pretty surprised if we don't leave on 29th March. I tend to believe whatever Mrs May says on this subject.

    She said back in 2016 that there would be a second Scottish Independence referendum if Scotland voted Remain and the UK voted Leave.
    Source?
    https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-brexit-full-text.html


    But if Brexit isn’t fatal to the European Union, we might find that it is fatal to the Union with Scotland. The SNP have already said that in the event that Britain votes to leave but Scotland votes to remain in the EU, they will press for another Scottish independence referendum

    It seems like May actually read the SNP holyrood manifesto unlike many on here.
    The SNP would argue for another Independence referendum if there was a letter 'r' in the month....
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,086

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'd be pretty surprised if we don't leave on 29th March. I tend to believe whatever Mrs May says on this subject.

    She said back in 2016 that there would be a second Scottish Independence referendum if Scotland voted Remain and the UK voted Leave.
    Source?
    https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-brexit-full-text.html


    But if Brexit isn’t fatal to the European Union, we might find that it is fatal to the Union with Scotland. The SNP have already said that in the event that Britain votes to leave but Scotland votes to remain in the EU, they will press for another Scottish independence referendum

    It seems like May actually read the SNP holyrood manifesto unlike many on here.
    The SNP would argue for another Independence referendum if there was a letter 'r' in the month....
    and probably lose again.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 32,813

    GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.

    Will the EU side go for it even if there's no clear pathway to something harder?
    The commentary I have read is that an extension will only get past the EU if its to make space for either a GE or a second referendum - ie the chance of reversing the decision.

    "Extra time to get our shit together" won't remotely cut it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860
    TOPPING said:

    GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.

    An A50 extension will be needed only if the deal fails to pass and to enable second referendum.

    A 15% probability IMO.
    Agreed. Not sure for what other situation an extension makes sense. Not a GE, since that has no certain outcomes to make the EU agreeing to the extension worth it.

    The decision to pull the MV remains one of the most baffling and pointless decisions May has taken. It's achieved nothing, not even it's aim of staving off a challenge. Seriously, what will have been achieved? No one has shifted position, at best we might get a lukewarm platitude from the EU and perhaps not even that, and we haven't even started up full prep for No deal.

    What a waste of time.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,451

    GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.

    Will the EU side go for it even if there's no clear pathway to something harder?
    The commentary I have read is that an extension will only get past the EU if its to make space for either a GE or a second referendum - ie the chance of reversing the decision.

    "Extra time to get our shit together" won't remotely cut it.
    That was also my understanding of the position, although historically the EU hardly ever misses an opportunity to kick a can, and Mrs May would make a keen and experienced can-kicking partner.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,840

    If, as looks highly likely, a great majority of the MPs who voted Leave in 2016 reject Theresa May's deal, they can hardly object if the whole matter is reopened. The Leave prospectus was based on the deal being straightforward, not on crashing out without a deal at all.

    Of those current MPs who were in Parliament at the time of the referendum vote and who voted Leave, I make it 90 who are currently opposed, 38 in favour (and just 12 of these are backbench MPs) and 9 still considering their position.

    They've certainly played into their opponents ' hands.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 703
    Nigelb said:

    A Labour council awards £190m contract to a company which refused to pay to remediate Grenfell style cladding...
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lendlease-builder-that-won-t-pay-to-remove-unsafe-grenfell-style-cladding-wins-190m-deal-2n7s5j92q

    Not a great message.

    It’s an even worse message to not award contracts to the best bidder because of a disagreement about a building they no longer own about work done a decade earlier.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 703

    GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.

    Will the EU side go for it even if there's no clear pathway to something harder?
    The commentary I have read is that an extension will only get past the EU if its to make space for either a GE or a second referendum - ie the chance of reversing the decision.

    "Extra time to get our shit together" won't remotely cut it.
    That was also my understanding of the position, although historically the EU hardly ever misses an opportunity to kick a can, and Mrs May would make a keen and experienced can-kicking partner.
    She can revoke and immediately reissue article 50.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,970
    Most Tory members support No Deal and most of the rest support the Deal with only a small minority still backing Remain, most Labour members back Remain with only a small minority backing Leaving with the Deal or No Deal.

    Tory and Labour movers are poles apart on Brexit, even more so than May and Corbyn
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,840

    notme2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    “Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.

    Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

    Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.
    What’s GONU?
    Or “remainers coup”.
    Yeah... one could imagine the national unity but being in short supply if that happened..
    A government which was opposed by both Corbyn supporters and Brexit supporters would have quite a torrid time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254
    He sounds unusually presidential there.

    I think this is a serious crunch time for his presidency, there's no way he's going to back down on what was his signature campaign policy. That wall has to be well under construction before the election if he's to retain any credibility among his supporters.

    Let's see what Chuck Schumer has to say. How long before people get really fed up with the shutdown?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,622
    Sean_F said:

    If, as looks highly likely, a great majority of the MPs who voted Leave in 2016 reject Theresa May's deal, they can hardly object if the whole matter is reopened. The Leave prospectus was based on the deal being straightforward, not on crashing out without a deal at all.

    Of those current MPs who were in Parliament at the time of the referendum vote and who voted Leave, I make it 90 who are currently opposed, 38 in favour (and just 12 of these are backbench MPs) and 9 still considering their position.

    They've certainly played into their opponents ' hands.
    It's a quite astonishing collective blunder.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254

    GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.

    Will the EU side go for it even if there's no clear pathway to something harder?
    The commentary I have read is that an extension will only get past the EU if its to make space for either a GE or a second referendum - ie the chance of reversing the decision.

    "Extra time to get our shit together" won't remotely cut it.
    That was also my understanding of the position, although historically the EU hardly ever misses an opportunity to kick a can, and Mrs May would make a keen and experienced can-kicking partner.
    They do have their own hard deadline though, which is the date of the EU elections in May. They're not going to give an extension past that date, as our exit (or otherwise) determines how many MEPs are elected from each member state.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,970
    edited January 9
    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    “Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.

    Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

    Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.
    What’s GONU?
    Or “remainers coup”.
    Yeah... one could imagine the national unity but being in short supply if that happened..
    A government which was opposed by both Corbyn supporters and Brexit supporters would have quite a torrid time.
    It would be Macronesque and we would likely get our own gilets jeunes
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,195
    Sean_F said:

    notme2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    “Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.

    Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

    Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.
    What’s GONU?
    Or “remainers coup”.
    Yeah... one could imagine the national unity but being in short supply if that happened..
    A government which was opposed by both Corbyn supporters and Brexit supporters would have quite a torrid time.
    Yet, would be the best thing for the country. A return to sanity.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 703
    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory members support No Deal and most of the rest support the Deal with only a small minority still backing Remain, most Labour members back Remain with only a small minority backing Leaving with the Deal or No Deal.

    Tory and Labour movers are poles apart on Brexit, even more so than May and Corbyn

    What is interesting is that Tory members are almost overwhelmingly pro Brexit, labour members anti Brexit, the labour parliamentary party anti Brexit, while the conservative parliamentary party is split more evenly between Brexit and remain (though accept the result largely and are now disagreeing mostly about the flavour of Brexit).

    Of all the political groups out there, of MPs and party members, it’s the Conservative parliamentary party that is probably the most representative of the nation at the moment.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 27,457
    Sean_F said:

    If, as looks highly likely, a great majority of the MPs who voted Leave in 2016 reject Theresa May's deal, they can hardly object if the whole matter is reopened. The Leave prospectus was based on the deal being straightforward, not on crashing out without a deal at all.

    Of those current MPs who were in Parliament at the time of the referendum vote and who voted Leave, I make it 90 who are currently opposed, 38 in favour (and just 12 of these are backbench MPs) and 9 still considering their position.

    They've certainly played into their opponents ' hands.
    I can’t work out if they’re thick, were never really serious about Leaving, or both.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,612
    edited January 9
    AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.

    I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.

    What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254

    Sean_F said:

    If, as looks highly likely, a great majority of the MPs who voted Leave in 2016 reject Theresa May's deal, they can hardly object if the whole matter is reopened. The Leave prospectus was based on the deal being straightforward, not on crashing out without a deal at all.

    Of those current MPs who were in Parliament at the time of the referendum vote and who voted Leave, I make it 90 who are currently opposed, 38 in favour (and just 12 of these are backbench MPs) and 9 still considering their position.

    They've certainly played into their opponents ' hands.
    It's a quite astonishing collective blunder.
    In any other circumstances, MPs of the government party voting against the govt in a Finance Bill would have been cause for at least a lengthy suspension of the whip. The problem is that in the case doing so would lose the government their majority.

    Last night's vote could have led to a GE, were it not for the FTPA.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,970
    edited January 9
    Roger said:

    Very interesting podcast. Labour members younger brighter more numerous more ethnically diverse more geographically diverse more gender equal and 9/10 against leaving the EU. The Tories by contrast are bigoted old white male socially illiberal anti EU small in number and right wing.

    Who'd have guessed?

    Elect Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Labour have it in the bag

    Why are Labour members brighter than Tory members? They may be slightly younger on average and more may be graduates but 50 years ago only 10% went to university compared to 40% now. Then many went to work after A Levels, now almost all A Level students go to university. I would also guess Tory members tend to be slightly wealthier on average and more are professionals working in the private sector than Labour members
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,719
    Sandpit said:

    He sounds unusually presidential there.

    I think this is a serious crunch time for his presidency, there's no way he's going to back down on what was his signature campaign policy. That wall has to be well under construction before the election if he's to retain any credibility among his supporters.

    Let's see what Chuck Schumer has to say. How long before people get really fed up with the shutdown?
    I don't think he has to have a wall being built. To wall is simply a shibboleth for the idea of it being okay to be racist to Mexicans and American Hispanics. There doesn't have to be an actual wall, there just has to be an idea of a wall.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,075
    Hmm. A second referendum before the end of this year is still 2.75 with Ladbrokes.

    Here's a thing. Imagine you're a Remainer type MP. What's your approach to May's deal now? Do you see momentum on your side and vote it down to try and compel Referendum 2: Refer Harder, or do you vote for it as the least bad option?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,622
    DavidL said:

    AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.

    I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.

    What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?

    It's a signal, a signal that quite a lot of no-no-dealers didn't join in (presumably because they, like you and me, thought it was pointless) but still passed. What I think they are trying to do is show the Prime Minister that they are unignorable when it comes to her post-defeat options.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,385
    edited January 9
    DavidL said:


    I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this?

    Just another building block in the attempt to make no-deal increasingly unpalatable. Then they vote down the deal, and remain is left as the only option - it's been the plan for quite a while, it seems.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,622
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    If, as looks highly likely, a great majority of the MPs who voted Leave in 2016 reject Theresa May's deal, they can hardly object if the whole matter is reopened. The Leave prospectus was based on the deal being straightforward, not on crashing out without a deal at all.

    Of those current MPs who were in Parliament at the time of the referendum vote and who voted Leave, I make it 90 who are currently opposed, 38 in favour (and just 12 of these are backbench MPs) and 9 still considering their position.

    They've certainly played into their opponents ' hands.
    It's a quite astonishing collective blunder.
    In any other circumstances, MPs of the government party voting against the govt in a Finance Bill would have been cause for at least a lengthy suspension of the whip. The problem is that in the case doing so would lose the government their majority.

    Last night's vote could have led to a GE, were it not for the FTPA.
    So the rebel MPs understood both the rules of the game and the political dynamics. That is encouraging.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,794
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Very interesting podcast. Labour members younger brighter more numerous more ethnically diverse more geographically diverse more gender equal and 9/10 against leaving the EU. The Tories by contrast are bigoted old white male socially illiberal anti EU small in number and right wing.
    Who'd have guessed?
    Elect Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Labour have it in the bag

    Why are Labour members brighter than Tory members? They may be slightly younger on average and more may be graduates but 50 years ago only 10% went to university compared to 40% now. Then many went to work after A Levels, now almost all A Level students go to university. I would also guess Tory members tend to be slightly wealthier on average and more are professionals working in the private sector than Labour members
    Maybe. But elderly Tories stopped thinking ages ago. "When facts change....." But elderly Tories are incapable of thinking things through.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860
    DavidL said:

    AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.

    I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.

    What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?

    I think you nail it by calling it displacement activity. The actual choices before them and actions needed for those options are not actually complicated but mps on all sides are dancing around those options, delaying, distracting, focusing on peripheral matters.

    It's all pretty pointless. We know what core groups want and what three options are possible. Just pick one, stop tweaking and pressuring and on and on and on. They don't even need to wait for the MV for everyone to just be clear what they seek.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 27,457
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    If, as looks highly likely, a great majority of the MPs who voted Leave in 2016 reject Theresa May's deal, they can hardly object if the whole matter is reopened. The Leave prospectus was based on the deal being straightforward, not on crashing out without a deal at all.

    Of those current MPs who were in Parliament at the time of the referendum vote and who voted Leave, I make it 90 who are currently opposed, 38 in favour (and just 12 of these are backbench MPs) and 9 still considering their position.

    They've certainly played into their opponents ' hands.
    It's a quite astonishing collective blunder.
    In any other circumstances, MPs of the government party voting against the govt in a Finance Bill would have been cause for at least a lengthy suspension of the whip. The problem is that in the case doing so would lose the government their majority.

    Last night's vote could have led to a GE, were it not for the FTPA.
    In a hung parliament if a single MP can party, then they will.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860
    Andrew said:

    DavidL said:


    I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this?

    Just another building block in the attempt to make no-deal increasingly unpalatable. Then they vote down the deal, and remain is left as the only option - it's been the plan for quite a while, it seems.
    Yes, it's been impressively done. The only trouble still to come is then their opposition to no deal and the commons as a whole to the deal, revocation should just happen as the only option, but they will presumably spend time arguing about a referendum to give cover for it being the only option.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,741
    Radio 4: Andrew Mitchell says he doesn't support the deal. Interesting.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,612

    DavidL said:

    AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.

    I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.

    What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?

    It's a signal, a signal that quite a lot of no-no-dealers didn't join in (presumably because they, like you and me, thought it was pointless) but still passed. What I think they are trying to do is show the Prime Minister that they are unignorable when it comes to her post-defeat options.
    What is increasingly clear is that May is PM in name only. All she has left is control of the timetable and I see the latest Grieve amendment is seeking to take even that away from her. I really wonder how much longer she can go on and what is the point of her doing so.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.

    I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.

    What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?

    I think you nail it by calling it displacement activity. The actual choices before them and actions needed for those options are not actually complicated but mps on all sides are dancing around those options, delaying, distracting, focusing on peripheral matters.

    It's all pretty pointless. We know what core groups want and what three options are possible. Just pick one, stop tweaking and pressuring and on and on and on. They don't even need to wait for the MV for everyone to just be clear what they seek.
    They want us to not leave the EU.

    But they don't have the balls to say so explicitly, because most of their constituents voted to leave the EU, and they were elected on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU following the referendum result.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,741
    Roger said:

    Very interesting podcast. Labour members younger brighter more numerous more ethnically diverse more geographically diverse more gender equal and 9/10 against leaving the EU. The Tories by contrast are bigoted old white male socially illiberal anti EU small in number and right wing.

    Who'd have guessed?

    Elect Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Labour have it in the bag

    Is it true that more than 50% of current Labour members live in Greater London?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,361
    Sandpit said:

    He sounds unusually presidential there.

    I think this is a serious crunch time for his presidency, there's no way he's going to back down on what was his signature campaign policy. That wall has to be well under construction before the election if he's to retain any credibility among his supporters.

    Let's see what Chuck Schumer has to say. How long before people get really fed up with the shutdown?
    One reason Trump sounded more than usually presidential is he was reading the autocue: sticking to what his writers had scripted rather than his usual speaking or tweeting off-the-cuff. The autocue also slowed him down a bit (eyesight?) which also adds gravitas.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,451
    notme2 said:


    She can revoke and immediately reissue article 50.

    I thought the judgement that said the UK could unilaterally revoke had a "no pissing around" clause?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860

    Hmm. A second referendum before the end of this year is still 2.75 with Ladbrokes.

    Here's a thing. Imagine you're a Remainer type MP. What's your approach to May's deal now? Do you see momentum on your side and vote it down to try and compel Referendum 2: Refer Harder, or do you vote for it as the least bad option?

    The former. It's so close now they can hardly miss their chance. With no deal opposition they are confident the risk is not great.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,860
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.

    I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.

    What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?

    I think you nail it by calling it displacement activity. The actual choices before them and actions needed for those options are not actually complicated but mps on all sides are dancing around those options, delaying, distracting, focusing on peripheral matters.

    It's all pretty pointless. We know what core groups want and what three options are possible. Just pick one, stop tweaking and pressuring and on and on and on. They don't even need to wait for the MV for everyone to just be clear what they seek.
    They want us to not leave the EU.

    But they don't have the balls to say so explicitly, because most of their constituents voted to leave the EU, and they were elected on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU following the referendum result.
    Eventually they'll have to admit it, and new dealers will have to admit no deal is the only leave alternative to the deal. They insult us all by still chasing unicorns.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,970
    notme2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory members support No Deal and most of the rest support the Deal with only a small minority still backing Remain, most Labour members back Remain with only a small minority backing Leaving with the Deal or No Deal.

    Tory and Labour movers are poles apart on Brexit, even more so than May and Corbyn

    What is interesting is that Tory members are almost overwhelmingly pro Brexit, labour members anti Brexit, the labour parliamentary party anti Brexit, while the conservative parliamentary party is split more evenly between Brexit and remain (though accept the result largely and are now disagreeing mostly about the flavour of Brexit).

    Of all the political groups out there, of MPs and party members, it’s the Conservative parliamentary party that is probably the most representative of the nation at the moment.
    To an extent, only about a third of Tory MPs back No Deal but far more Tory MPs prefer the Deal to Remain as their first choice, in the nation it is the reverse, though more have the Deal as their second choice
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,794
    notme2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory members support No Deal and most of the rest support the Deal with only a small minority still backing Remain, most Labour members back Remain with only a small minority backing Leaving with the Deal or No Deal.

    Tory and Labour movers are poles apart on Brexit, even more so than May and Corbyn

    What is interesting is that Tory members are almost overwhelmingly pro Brexit, labour members anti Brexit, the labour parliamentary party anti Brexit, while the conservative parliamentary party is split more evenly between Brexit and remain (though accept the result largely and are now disagreeing mostly about the flavour of Brexit).

    Of all the political groups out there, of MPs and party members, it’s the Conservative parliamentary party that is probably the most representative of the nation at the moment.
    Split and dithering? That sounds like the Conservative Party.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,451
    Sandpit said:


    They do have their own hard deadline though, which is the date of the EU elections in May. They're not going to give an extension past that date, as our exit (or otherwise) determines how many MEPs are elected from each member state.

    That's not at all a hard deadline. There's already a plan in place for what happens if the UK is still a member, and they've done changes partway through the term before when new members join. It's an irritation, but not an impossible hurdle.

    That said, it's not clear that rest of the member states would unanimously agree to put up with an irritation just so the British can faff around some more.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,622
    edited January 9
    AndyJS said:

    Radio 4: Andrew Mitchell says he doesn't support the deal. Interesting.

    That's not news. Of the Conservative MPs that didn't vote Leave in 2016, the following are rebels (I hope I do no disservice to their position):

    Scottish unionist rebel


    John Lamont

    Remain-leaning rebels


    Heidi Allen
    Guto Bebb
    Damian Collins
    George Freeman
    Justine Greening
    Dominic Grieve
    Sam Gyimah
    Jo Johnson
    Phillip Lee
    Andrew Mitchell
    Anna Soubry
    Sarah Wollaston

    Hard Leave-leaning rebels

    Robert Courts
    Tracey Crouch
    Charlie Elphicke
    David Evennett
    Michael Fallon
    Robert Halfon
    Mark Harper
    Trudy Harrison
    Pauline Latham
    Johnny Mercer
    Neil Parish
    Mark Pritchard
    Douglas Ross
    Grant Shapps
    Hugo Swire
    Shailesh Vara
    Giles Watling

    It should be noted that the backstop features on both Remain and Leave leaning lists and some MPs are surprisingly hard to sift.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 703
    PClipp said:

    notme2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Most Tory members support No Deal and most of the rest support the Deal with only a small minority still backing Remain, most Labour members back Remain with only a small minority backing Leaving with the Deal or No Deal.

    Tory and Labour movers are poles apart on Brexit, even more so than May and Corbyn

    What is interesting is that Tory members are almost overwhelmingly pro Brexit, labour members anti Brexit, the labour parliamentary party anti Brexit, while the conservative parliamentary party is split more evenly between Brexit and remain (though accept the result largely and are now disagreeing mostly about the flavour of Brexit).

    Of all the political groups out there, of MPs and party members, it’s the Conservative parliamentary party that is probably the most representative of the nation at the moment.
    Split and dithering? That sounds like the Conservative Party.
    On this issue it sounds like the nation. What’s interesting is just how out of whack the other parties are.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254

    Sandpit said:

    He sounds unusually presidential there.

    I think this is a serious crunch time for his presidency, there's no way he's going to back down on what was his signature campaign policy. That wall has to be well under construction before the election if he's to retain any credibility among his supporters.

    Let's see what Chuck Schumer has to say. How long before people get really fed up with the shutdown?
    One reason Trump sounded more than usually presidential is he was reading the autocue: sticking to what his writers had scripted rather than his usual speaking or tweeting off-the-cuff. The autocue also slowed him down a bit (eyesight?) which also adds gravitas.
    Indeed. Given his tendency to ramble on with a load of bollocks, or to deviate massively from the script, this speech was unusual in that he did it 'normally'.

    Speed and cadence are also important, so as you say his team had the autocue running at a much slower pace to how he usually speaks.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,612
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.

    I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.

    What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?

    I think you nail it by calling it displacement activity. The actual choices before them and actions needed for those options are not actually complicated but mps on all sides are dancing around those options, delaying, distracting, focusing on peripheral matters.

    It's all pretty pointless. We know what core groups want and what three options are possible. Just pick one, stop tweaking and pressuring and on and on and on. They don't even need to wait for the MV for everyone to just be clear what they seek.
    The fundamental problem remains (hah). The only thing that there has ever been a majority in the Commons for is remain. Some of those still gulp at the democratic outrage of ignoring the largest vote in our history but most have rationalised it to themselves by persuading themselves that we didn't know what we were doing, we were misled by a bus, things have changed, no one ever thought no deal was a possibility (really, I mean come on), May's deal is awful and not what was promised, we really should have another go, whatever.

    Its pathetic and we all know ultimately they are going to prevent Brexit. This rationalisation process is just embarrassing. The damage to our country will be incalculable, far worse than even a no deal Brexit would have caused. But I am beginning to wish that they would just get on with it and stop the whining.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,288
    notme2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    A Labour council awards £190m contract to a company which refused to pay to remediate Grenfell style cladding...
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lendlease-builder-that-won-t-pay-to-remove-unsafe-grenfell-style-cladding-wins-190m-deal-2n7s5j92q

    Not a great message.

    It’s an even worse message to not award contracts to the best bidder because of a disagreement about a building they no longer own about work done a decade earlier.
    And which may have met the building regulations as understood
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,948
    Sandpit said:

    GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.

    Will the EU side go for it even if there's no clear pathway to something harder?
    The commentary I have read is that an extension will only get past the EU if its to make space for either a GE or a second referendum - ie the chance of reversing the decision.

    "Extra time to get our shit together" won't remotely cut it.
    That was also my understanding of the position, although historically the EU hardly ever misses an opportunity to kick a can, and Mrs May would make a keen and experienced can-kicking partner.
    They do have their own hard deadline though, which is the date of the EU elections in May. They're not going to give an extension past that date, as our exit (or otherwise) determines how many MEPs are elected from each member state.
    I don't think it is a hard deadline. I believe the EU has a contingency plan for a delay beyond 26 May. But it certainly complicates matters.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,361
    edited January 9
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Very interesting podcast. Labour members younger brighter more numerous more ethnically diverse more geographically diverse more gender equal and 9/10 against leaving the EU. The Tories by contrast are bigoted old white male socially illiberal anti EU small in number and right wing.

    Who'd have guessed?

    Elect Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Labour have it in the bag

    Why are Labour members brighter than Tory members? They may be slightly younger on average and more may be graduates but 50 years ago only 10% went to university compared to 40% now. Then many went to work after A Levels, now almost all A Level students go to university. I would also guess Tory members tend to be slightly wealthier on average and more are professionals working in the private sector than Labour members
    We need to be careful before we start disenfranchising people because they are too young or too old, or who don't have enough O-levels or enough money.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,075
    Mr. kle4, yeah, that's probably my take on it too.

    All green on the referendum situation itself, so not inclined to back something at 2.75 I got better odds on, but if I had no skin in the market I'd be contemplating that.

    Mr. Roger, sure, if you want to cast racial aspersions you could take that view. Or you could say that those with longer historical ties to this nation take a patriotic stance.

    Or we could say that the country is very divided, almost exactly evenly, on this matter and there are legitimate arguments for and against. Being pro-EU or anti-EU is not the reserve of the moral or immoral, the stupid or wise. Despite the abysmal referendum campaigns, both are rational perspectives with reasonable arguments on their side.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,612

    notme2 said:


    She can revoke and immediately reissue article 50.

    I thought the judgement that said the UK could unilaterally revoke had a "no pissing around" clause?
    Yes, it had to be done according to our constitutional principles (and guess who gets to judge that) and in good faith (ditto). It is not an unfettered discretion.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,622
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.

    I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.

    What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?

    I think you nail it by calling it displacement activity. The actual choices before them and actions needed for those options are not actually complicated but mps on all sides are dancing around those options, delaying, distracting, focusing on peripheral matters.

    It's all pretty pointless. We know what core groups want and what three options are possible. Just pick one, stop tweaking and pressuring and on and on and on. They don't even need to wait for the MV for everyone to just be clear what they seek.
    The fundamental problem remains (hah). The only thing that there has ever been a majority in the Commons for is remain. Some of those still gulp at the democratic outrage of ignoring the largest vote in our history but most have rationalised it to themselves by persuading themselves that we didn't know what we were doing, we were misled by a bus, things have changed, no one ever thought no deal was a possibility (really, I mean come on), May's deal is awful and not what was promised, we really should have another go, whatever.

    Its pathetic and we all know ultimately they are going to prevent Brexit. This rationalisation process is just embarrassing. The damage to our country will be incalculable, far worse than even a no deal Brexit would have caused. But I am beginning to wish that they would just get on with it and stop the whining.
    Remain-supporting MPs are under no pressure to accept the deal for as long as the true believers in Leave decisively reject it. Once it is rejected, all bets are legitimately off.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254

    AndyJS said:

    Radio 4: Andrew Mitchell says he doesn't support the deal. Interesting.

    That's not news. Of the Conservative MPs that didn't vote Leave in 2016, the following are rebels (I hope I do no disservice to their position):

    Scottish unionist rebel


    John Lamont

    Remain-leaning rebels


    Heidi Allen
    Guto Bebb
    Damian Collins
    George Freeman
    Justine Greening
    Dominic Grieve
    Sam Gyimah
    Jo Johnson
    Phillip Lee
    Andrew Mitchell
    Anna Soubry
    Sarah Wollaston

    Hard Leave-leaning rebels

    Robert Courts
    Tracey Crouch
    Charlie Elphicke
    David Evennett
    Michael Fallon
    Robert Halfon
    Mark Harper
    Trudy Harrison
    Pauline Latham
    Johnny Mercer
    Neil Parish
    Mark Pritchard
    Douglas Ross
    Grant Shapps
    Hugo Swire
    Shailesh Vara
    Giles Watling

    It should be noted that the backstop features on both Remain and Leave leaning lists and some MPs are surprisingly hard to sift.
    Thanks for maintaining this list, and what an astonishing position to have so many rebels on all sides. As Mr Dancer said yesterday, the PM has managed to annoy both sides of a binary decision.

    Do we have more than a handful of Con backbenchers (not on the payroll) supporting the deal?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,741

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Very interesting podcast. Labour members younger brighter more numerous more ethnically diverse more geographically diverse more gender equal and 9/10 against leaving the EU. The Tories by contrast are bigoted old white male socially illiberal anti EU small in number and right wing.

    Who'd have guessed?

    Elect Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Labour have it in the bag

    Why are Labour members brighter than Tory members? They may be slightly younger on average and more may be graduates but 50 years ago only 10% went to university compared to 40% now. Then many went to work after A Levels, now almost all A Level students go to university. I would also guess Tory members tend to be slightly wealthier on average and more are professionals working in the private sector than Labour members
    We need to be careful before we start disenfranchising people because they are too young or too old, or who don't have enough O-levels or enough money.
    I wasn't aware there were any plans to disenfranchise anyone.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,052


    Oh please make it William Hague screams my wallet.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,288

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'd be pretty surprised if we don't leave on 29th March. I tend to believe whatever Mrs May says on this subject.

    She said back in 2016 that there would be a second Scottish Independence referendum if Scotland voted Remain and the UK voted Leave.
    Source?
    https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-brexit-full-text.html


    But if Brexit isn’t fatal to the European Union, we might find that it is fatal to the Union with Scotland. The SNP have already said that in the event that Britain votes to leave but Scotland votes to remain in the EU, they will press for another Scottish independence referendum

    It seems like May actually read the SNP holyrood manifesto unlike many on here.
    The SNP would argue for another Independence referendum if there was a letter 'r' in the month....
    I was thinking that the other day. Why does anyone take the SNP seriously when they talk about one thing or another being better dealt with by an independent Scotland. It is their answer to everything. What’s better than Brexit? An independent Scotland in the EU. Why do we need more housing in Scotland? An independent Scotland would better meet those needs. Who is going to win X factor? Anyone from an independent Scotland
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,989
    edited January 9
    DavidL said:

    AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.

    I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.

    What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?

    Plenty of the rebels are dealers. It is saying we have a deal to leave the EU so we should leave with that deal. As @AlastairMeeks has noted, many leavers don't support the deal and hence have surrendered their right to hold anyone to any particular version of leave. The rebels, I imagine, would not have rebelled if their party was united behind the deal.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,622
    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Radio 4: Andrew Mitchell says he doesn't support the deal. Interesting.

    That's not news. Of the Conservative MPs that didn't vote Leave in 2016, the following are rebels (I hope I do no disservice to their position):

    Scottish unionist rebel


    John Lamont

    Remain-leaning rebels


    Heidi Allen
    Guto Bebb
    Damian Collins
    George Freeman
    Justine Greening
    Dominic Grieve
    Sam Gyimah
    Jo Johnson
    Phillip Lee
    Andrew Mitchell
    Anna Soubry
    Sarah Wollaston

    Hard Leave-leaning rebels

    Robert Courts
    Tracey Crouch
    Charlie Elphicke
    David Evennett
    Michael Fallon
    Robert Halfon
    Mark Harper
    Trudy Harrison
    Pauline Latham
    Johnny Mercer
    Neil Parish
    Mark Pritchard
    Douglas Ross
    Grant Shapps
    Hugo Swire
    Shailesh Vara
    Giles Watling

    It should be noted that the backstop features on both Remain and Leave leaning lists and some MPs are surprisingly hard to sift.
    Thanks for maintaining this list, and what an astonishing position to have so many rebels on all sides. As Mr Dancer said yesterday, the PM has managed to annoy both sides of a binary decision.

    Do we have more than a handful of Con backbenchers (not on the payroll) supporting the deal?
    Lots, heading to 100 as things currently stand. Few of them, however, voted Leave in 2016. Nearly all of them are what I think of as "quiet lifers".
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,741

    AndyJS said:

    Radio 4: Andrew Mitchell says he doesn't support the deal. Interesting.

    That's not news. Of the Conservative MPs that didn't vote Leave in 2016, the following are rebels (I hope I do no disservice to their position):

    Scottish unionist rebel


    John Lamont

    Remain-leaning rebels


    Heidi Allen
    Guto Bebb
    Damian Collins
    George Freeman
    Justine Greening
    Dominic Grieve
    Sam Gyimah
    Jo Johnson
    Phillip Lee
    Andrew Mitchell
    Anna Soubry
    Sarah Wollaston

    Hard Leave-leaning rebels

    Robert Courts
    Tracey Crouch
    Charlie Elphicke
    David Evennett
    Michael Fallon
    Robert Halfon
    Mark Harper
    Trudy Harrison
    Pauline Latham
    Johnny Mercer
    Neil Parish
    Mark Pritchard
    Douglas Ross
    Grant Shapps
    Hugo Swire
    Shailesh Vara
    Giles Watling

    It should be noted that the backstop features on both Remain and Leave leaning lists and some MPs are surprisingly hard to sift.
    Thanks for the list. I think Antoinette Sandbach is sometimes also included in the list of Remain rebels.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,075
    Mr. Meeks, "Once it is rejected, all bets are legitimately off."

    I hope not :pensive:
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,294
    There's an odd mindset around at the moment, A sort of intellectual arrogance. A majority of people have always considered themselves brighter than average, but modesty used to be considered a virtue.

    No longer. Stupidity is in. My opinions are more sensible than others because they're mine. We've always had people opining on subjects they know little about, but they now do it with a vehemence.

    That's why democracy is in danger. When people don't accept a majority decision because other people's opinions are worth less.

    The Guardian was famous for this, but it's spread widely now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,612

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    I think you nail it by calling it displacement activity. The actual choices before them and actions needed for those options are not actually complicated but mps on all sides are dancing around those options, delaying, distracting, focusing on peripheral matters.

    It's all pretty pointless. We know what core groups want and what three options are possible. Just pick one, stop tweaking and pressuring and on and on and on. They don't even need to wait for the MV for everyone to just be clear what they seek.
    The fundamental problem remains (hah). The only thing that there has ever been a majority in the Commons for is remain. Some of those still gulp at the democratic outrage of ignoring the largest vote in our history but most have rationalised it to themselves by persuading themselves that we didn't know what we were doing, we were misled by a bus, things have changed, no one ever thought no deal was a possibility (really, I mean come on), May's deal is awful and not what was promised, we really should have another go, whatever.

    Its pathetic and we all know ultimately they are going to prevent Brexit. This rationalisation process is just embarrassing. The damage to our country will be incalculable, far worse than even a no deal Brexit would have caused. But I am beginning to wish that they would just get on with it and stop the whining.
    Remain-supporting MPs are under no pressure to accept the deal for as long as the true believers in Leave decisively reject it. Once it is rejected, all bets are legitimately off.
    Those elected to implement Brexit have an obligation to do so in what they judge the best way possible, whether that is the deal or no deal. Their obligation does not vanish because others are behaving like irresponsible idiots.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254
    edited January 9



    Oh please make it William Hague screams my wallet.

    The most succinct reply:

    The Tory remain rebels are going to have to quit the party if they wish to actually stop Brexit from happening.
    If this happens we are most likely facing an election.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,741
    edited January 9
    CD13 said:

    There's an odd mindset around at the moment, A sort of intellectual arrogance. A majority of people have always considered themselves brighter than average, but modesty used to be considered a virtue.

    No longer. Stupidity is in. My opinions are more sensible than others because they're mine. We've always had people opining on subjects they know little about, but they now do it with a vehemence.

    That's why democracy is in danger. When people don't accept a majority decision because other people's opinions are worth less.

    The Guardian was famous for this, but it's spread widely now.

    Very true. It's notable how partisan most newspapers and magazines are now compared to 10 or 15 years ago. Most of them used to make a bit of an effort to hide their political slant so that it wasn't totally obvious.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,840
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.

    I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.

    What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?

    I think you nail it by calling it displacement activity. The actual choices before them and actions needed for those options are not actually complicated but mps on all sides are dancing around those options, delaying, distracting, focusing on peripheral matters.

    It's all pretty pointless. We know what core groups want and what three options are possible. Just pick one, stop tweaking and pressuring and on and on and on. They don't even need to wait for the MV for everyone to just be clear what they seek.
    The fundamental problem remains (hah). The only thing that there has ever been a majority in the Commons for is remain. Some of those still gulp at the democratic outrage of ignoring the largest vote in our history but most have rationalised it to themselves by persuading themselves that we didn't know what we were doing, we were misled by a bus, things have changed, no one ever thought no deal was a possibility (really, I mean come on), May's deal is awful and not what was promised, we really should have another go, whatever.

    Its pathetic and we all know ultimately they are going to prevent Brexit. This rationalisation process is just embarrassing. The damage to our country will be incalculable, far worse than even a no deal Brexit would have caused. But I am beginning to wish that they would just get on with it and stop the whining.
    It's quite blackly funny, in a Death of Stalin sort of way.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 703
    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Radio 4: Andrew Mitchell says he doesn't support the deal. Interesting.

    That's not news. Of the Conservative MPs that didn't vote Leave in 2016, the following are rebels (I hope I do no disservice to their position):

    Scottish unionist rebel


    John Lamont

    Remain-leaning rebels


    Heidi Allen
    Guto Bebb
    Damian Collins
    George Freeman
    Justine Greening
    Dominic Grieve
    Sam Gyimah
    Jo Johnson
    Phillip Lee
    Andrew Mitchell
    Anna Soubry
    Sarah Wollaston

    Hard Leave-leaning rebels

    Robert Courts
    Tracey Crouch
    Charlie Elphicke
    David Evennett
    Michael Fallon
    Robert Halfon
    Mark Harper
    Trudy Harrison
    Pauline Latham
    Johnny Mercer
    Neil Parish
    Mark Pritchard
    Douglas Ross
    Grant Shapps
    Hugo Swire
    Shailesh Vara
    Giles Watling

    It should be noted that the backstop features on both Remain and Leave leaning lists and some MPs are surprisingly hard to sift.
    Thanks for maintaining this list, and what an astonishing position to have so many rebels on all sides. As Mr Dancer said yesterday, the PM has managed to annoy both sides of a binary decision.

    Do we have more than a handful of Con backbenchers (not on the payroll) supporting the deal?
    The decision to leave was binary, where we end up is whole HDR palette of shades of grey.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,834
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.

    I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.

    What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?

    I think you nail it by calling it displacement activity. The actual choices before them and actions needed for those options are not actually complicated but mps on all sides are dancing around those options, delaying, distracting, focusing on peripheral matters.

    It's all pretty pointless. We know what core groups want and what three options are possible. Just pick one, stop tweaking and pressuring and on and on and on. They don't even need to wait for the MV for everyone to just be clear what they seek.
    The fundamental problem remains (hah). The only thing that there has ever been a majority in the Commons for is remain. Some of those still gulp at the democratic outrage of ignoring the largest vote in our history but most have rationalised it to themselves by persuading themselves that we didn't know what we were doing, we were misled by a bus, things have changed, no one ever thought no deal was a possibility (really, I mean come on), May's deal is awful and not what was promised, we really should have another go, whatever.

    Its pathetic and we all know ultimately they are going to prevent Brexit. This rationalisation process is just embarrassing. The damage to our country will be incalculable, far worse than even a no deal Brexit would have caused. But I am beginning to wish that they would just get on with it and stop the whining.
    +1

    Do it, then offer themselves up for re-election. Watching their faces at the counts as so many of them face unemployment will be a doozy.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,622
    DavidL said:


    Those elected to implement Brexit have an obligation to do so in what they judge the best way possible, whether that is the deal or no deal. Their obligation does not vanish because others are behaving like irresponsible idiots.

    Just imagine the Deal were passed with Remain votes while all the Leavers were, as they are, screaming betrayal. The "stab in the back" myth comes ready-made.

    Why on earth should they make themselves the fall-guys for the extremists' irredentists' fantasies? And how could they be confident that they were honouring the vote in any case if those whose project this is almost unanimously think otherwise?
  • How would Tory Leavers feel if say Gove came out and publicly said ‘No Deal does NOT honour the referendum’
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,622
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Radio 4: Andrew Mitchell says he doesn't support the deal. Interesting.

    That's not news. Of the Conservative MPs that didn't vote Leave in 2016, the following are rebels (I hope I do no disservice to their position):

    Scottish unionist rebel


    John Lamont

    Remain-leaning rebels


    Heidi Allen
    Guto Bebb
    Damian Collins
    George Freeman
    Justine Greening
    Dominic Grieve
    Sam Gyimah
    Jo Johnson
    Phillip Lee
    Andrew Mitchell
    Anna Soubry
    Sarah Wollaston

    Hard Leave-leaning rebels

    Robert Courts
    Tracey Crouch
    Charlie Elphicke
    David Evennett
    Michael Fallon
    Robert Halfon
    Mark Harper
    Trudy Harrison
    Pauline Latham
    Johnny Mercer
    Neil Parish
    Mark Pritchard
    Douglas Ross
    Grant Shapps
    Hugo Swire
    Shailesh Vara
    Giles Watling

    It should be noted that the backstop features on both Remain and Leave leaning lists and some MPs are surprisingly hard to sift.
    Thanks for the list. I think Antoinette Sandbach is sometimes also included in the list of Remain rebels.
    She's backing the deal:

    https://www.antoinettesandbach.org.uk/news/forty-reasons-back-brexit-deal

    If the deal is voted down, she will no doubt be among those pressing for a major rethink.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,254

    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Radio 4: Andrew Mitchell says he doesn't support the deal. Interesting.

    That's not news. Of the Conservative MPs that didn't vote Leave in 2016, the following are rebels (I hope I do no disservice to their position):

    Scottish unionist rebel


    John Lamont

    Remain-leaning rebels


    Heidi Allen
    Guto Bebb
    Damian Collins
    George Freeman
    Justine Greening
    Dominic Grieve
    Sam Gyimah
    Jo Johnson
    Phillip Lee
    Andrew Mitchell
    Anna Soubry
    Sarah Wollaston

    Hard Leave-leaning rebels

    Robert Courts
    Tracey Crouch
    Charlie Elphicke
    David Evennett
    Michael Fallon
    Robert Halfon
    Mark Harper
    Trudy Harrison
    Pauline Latham
    Johnny Mercer
    Neil Parish
    Mark Pritchard
    Douglas Ross
    Grant Shapps
    Hugo Swire
    Shailesh Vara
    Giles Watling

    It should be noted that the backstop features on both Remain and Leave leaning lists and some MPs are surprisingly hard to sift.
    Thanks for maintaining this list, and what an astonishing position to have so many rebels on all sides. As Mr Dancer said yesterday, the PM has managed to annoy both sides of a binary decision.

    Do we have more than a handful of Con backbenchers (not on the payroll) supporting the deal?
    Lots, heading to 100 as things currently stand. Few of them, however, voted Leave in 2016. Nearly all of them are what I think of as "quiet lifers".
    Sounds like that's those that will vote for the deal because they are whipped to do so, rather than because it's necessarily their preferred course of action.

    If fewer than 200 vote for the deal it could go down by well over 200 majority - then all bets are seriously off as to what happens next!!
This discussion has been closed.