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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Has the ERG won?

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited March 13 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Has the ERG won?

The sight of long-standing opponents of the EU voting on Tuesday against leaving the EU because May’s Withdrawal Agreement was not “proper Brexit” must have infuriated those MPs who voted for the deal despite not wishing to leave the EU. Ken Clarke, for instance.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,187
    FPT:
    tlg86 said:

    Say we get a third MV and most but not all ERG back May's deal. At what point do they have the moral high ground if it still loses (and would have still lost even with all Brexiteers onside)? Would it need there to be fewer Brexit rebels than remain rebels?

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,033
    No.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,127
    MV3rd
  • The idea that this is all leading to the ERG having succeeded is nonsense.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,579
    The sandcastle seems to be collapsing tonight.
  • The bloke on BBC Outside Source thinks all his Christmases have come at once. Working that touch screen like a boss.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 1,789
    I still think a version of May’s vote will pass.

    It’s the only deal on the table and I don’t reckon many MPs would have the balls to prevent Brexit.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,242
    Scott_P said:
    Why are they angry? They've brought it all on themselves...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,214
    edited March 13

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    Why would you refuse to believe that with all the evidence that’s available and in front of you?

    I don't know! It just doesn't compute. This. Is. What. They. Want. Why don't they want it?

    It does compute to me, funnily enough as a Remainer. I voted Remain because I thought EU membership was the best for the country. But the vote went the other way, and maybe I can accept the result, get with the programme. Yes Britain will be damaged by Brexit, but I didn't vote for it. Seeking to limit that damage is a worthwhile endeavour to me.

    If you are a Leaver, you didn't vote for damage limitation. You voted to make things better. All the practical downsides either don't exist, have nothing to do with Brexit, or are somebody else's fault. So why should you leave an organisation, where you have a say to a situation where that organisation simply tells what to do and you have no say? That wasn't what you voted for.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    I hope they haven't, though as cyclefree notes there is much still to do. MPs congratulating themselves right now are being premature.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,530
    May's deal is the only option out of this, sadly.....but that's that and it will be passed next week or the week after....and then May will go and then Boris will become PM and then we'll have an election and Boris will win and then Corbyn will go and then Labour will become quite normal again, and then Boris will probably negotiate a quite sensible trade deal with the EU that aligns some customs/single market components....and then it'll be 2022..and we'll have forgotten about this period of British history...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,579
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why are they angry? They've brought it all on themselves...
    Now you understand what it has been like for nearly three years as a Remain voter watching Leavers getting angry about each perceived slight.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 15,034
    No
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 2,944
    Fenster said:

    I still think a version of May’s vote will pass.

    It’s the only deal on the table and I don’t reckon many MPs would have the balls to prevent Brexit.

    Why would a Brexiteer vote for a watered down barely Brexit when not doing so delivers the proper man Brexit of their dreams? To stop hard Brexit in a few weeks either the ERG et al vote for the watery deal. Or MPs vote to revoke AND the government enacts it. Because we will not get an extension from the EU without a significant change in either policy or an election.

    Can you see that happening? It'll be no deal.

    I'm off to do a big shop before weekend. A big shop.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    FF43 said:

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    Why would you refuse to believe that with all the evidence that’s available and in front of you?

    I don't know! It just doesn't compute. This. Is. What. They. Want. Why don't they want it?

    It does compute to me, funnily enough as a Remainer. I voted Remain because I thought EU membership was the best for the country. But the vote went the other way, and maybe I can accept the result, get with the programme. Yes Britain will be damaged by Brexit, but I didn't vote for it. Seeking to limit that damage is a worthwhile endeavour to me.

    If you are a Leaver, you didn't vote for damage limitation. You voted to make things better. All the practical downsides either don't exist, have nothing to do with Brexit, or are somebody else's fault. So why should you leave an organisation, where you have a say to a situation where that organisation simply tells what to do and you have no say? That wasn't what you voted for.

    That's ok for the ones that admit that staying in is better than what we have gotten as a deal. The ones who will see that happen but are not yet admitting it get my goat.

    But the deal is dead. MV4 is already been talked of because MV3 might also fail, which is telling. Plus Bercow looking to become a remainer hero.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why are they angry? They've brought it all on themselves...
    They are incandescent because Parliament has taken back control and is sovereign.

    Oh wait...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 4,440
    Replying to William Glenn re article 50. 2 years is the max, you leave once agreement made, if you are leaving without a deal you leave immediately there's nothing to agree on, you leave on WTO terms. If the EU try and negotiate then you veto everything you can veto until they say 'oh ok, see ya'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    Scott_P said:
    Aw, diddums. Why are they surprised by this? The exact path of things has been all over the place, but they all know each other's views now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005
    Things could get even worse. What if Bercow declines to allow the same motion (i.e. MV3) to be put again in the same session?

    GE time.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 591
    What an astonishing evening . At one point it looked like Yvette Cooper could have made a terrible. decision .

    Thankfully it turned out okay . The ERG continue to live in denial . And they either back May or end up with a soft Brexit or no Brexit .

    And those 17 abstentions in the cabinet could turn to votes against in future.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,579
    It’s worth noting that those touting MV3 are assuming - if it happens - that everyone voting for MV2 will vote for it. That looks an exceptionally risky assumption to me.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 12,831
    tyson said:

    May's deal is the only option out of this, sadly.....but that's that and it will be passed next week or the week after....and then May will go and then Boris will become PM and then we'll have an election and Boris will win and then Corbyn will go and then Labour will become quite normal again, and then Boris will probably negotiate a quite sensible trade deal with the EU that aligns some customs/single market components....and then it'll be 2022..and we'll have forgotten about this period of British history...

    That sounds very idyllic.

    With the exception of Boris becoming PM.

    I have my doubts, big doubts.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 4,440

    Things could get even worse. What if Bercow declines to allow the same motion (i.e. MV3) to be put again in the same session?

    GE time.

    Vote of no confidence in bercow which will pass
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 43,661

    They are incandescent because Parliament has taken back control and is sovereign.

    Oh wait...

  • Willing to contribute to a crowdfunder to fashion a giant catapult, and ping this guy into the North Sea.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,708
    edited March 13
    FPT

    Another possibility: some ERG members deciding to support a 2nd referendum in preference to voting for a deal they don't support. That would put them in the same camp as a lot of Labour MPs, and would be yet another unexpected alliance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    Back the deal and you back staying in the EU. Don't back the deal and we stay in the EU. Hmm.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,861
    No, the ERG has lost. Tonight's vote make a clear the Commons will vote for anything ultimately, including extension and permanent Single Market and Customs Union, EUref2 or even revoking Brexit over No Deal
  • Marco1Marco1 Posts: 23
    In response to some of the remarks , Brexiteers should be angry at how MPs behave but so should all democrats.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 591
    If the ERG don’t back the deal the narrative is now building that they’ve trashed Brexit and will be blamed .

    The ERG don’t seem to realize the games up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    Not that I disagree May does not listen, and I too think we need a second referendum, but how is a second referendum not also 'battering people into submission'?

    Independent Group MP Anna Soubry says the government has a "pitiful lack of leadership".

    "The prime minister just doesn't listen," she adds.

    May is acting "like a robot" and prepared to "batter people into submission" to get her deal through, she adds.

    Having a second referendum is "the only way through it," she says.

    "The prime minister's stubbornness [is] not good for our country."
  • Marco1Marco1 Posts: 23
    @Scott_P
    Parliament has taken back control...! This was a decision given to the people, the people spoke and MPs are just carrying out a banana republic coup d'etat. How can you seriously believe you are a democrat ?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,374

    He seems to have been trained to aim at his own feet, and pull the trigger repeatedly.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 4,440
    It will be fascinating to see who the voters are angriest at and how the polls move now
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005
    Theresa May is Bill Murray in a very good disguise.
  • Now would be a good time for Magic Grandad to complete his 'long game'.

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,127
    TSE goes mad!!!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005
    nico67 said:

    If the ERG don’t back the deal the narrative is now building that they’ve trashed Brexit and will be blamed .

    The ERG don’t seem to realize the games up.

    Hmmm. Depends which narrative. Plenty of Leavers like Farage blaming May, Cabinet, all MPs and not just the ERG.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,036
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why are they angry? They've brought it all on themselves...
    BREAKING: Steve Baker confirms ERG to formally resign Tory whip and sit in Parliament as the Vicky Pollard Group
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,252
    Advantage Liverpool!
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 3,342
    kle4 said:

    Back the deal and you back staying in the EU. Don't back the deal and we stay in the EU. Hmm.
    It doesn't matter which way come at it, it will always come staying in in the end. Look at the map.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 1,789
    edited March 13
    Trying to put myself in the ERG’s shoes and understand their thinking... I’ll pretend I’m Steve Baker.
    Baker was a huge behind-the-scenes apparatchik for the Leave campaign, cleverly working the angles and representing the harder Brexit wonkish Eurosceptics (such as Cash and Redwood).

    Baker has dedicated a significant part of his life to getting the UK out of the EU and deserves accolades for his orchestration of the Leave campaign. You’d therefore think he would grab the opportunity to complete his life’s work and back May’s Deal, to at least ensure we leave.

    But he didn’t, and he shows no sign of intending to do so.

    Given how much it means to him I can only think that his position is a principled one. I think his problem is that he, and other hardcore Brexiteers like him, have come to represent a portion of the electorate who will only accept a pure, hard, yet unachievable Brexit. It has been a mistake by people like Baker, who surely knew it would never be easy, to convince these voters that a pure Brexit could be done. You’ve only got to see the hard Kipperesque leavers on Twitter to witness their intransigence. They will settle for nothing less than the perfect Brexit, and Baker and co know they are boxed into a corner on that.

    By voting for May’s Deal they’d effectively be seen as traitors and would kiss goodbye to all their supporters, to the detriment of the other thing they love, the Tory party.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,530

    Theresa May is Bill Murray in a very good disguise.

    With the very big difference is that I wouldn't want Theresa popping up at my house party to do the washing up.....

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,708
    edited March 13
    HYUFD said:

    No, the ERG has lost. Tonight's vote make a clear the Commons will vote for anything ultimately, including extension and permanent Single Market and Customs Union, EUref2 or even revoking Brexit over No Deal

    They've lost if you assume they only wanted to leave on 29th March. But they're probably more interested in leaving in the way they want than the precise date it happens.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,040
    Sounds like the bloody Star Wars franchise :)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005
    kle4 said:

    Back the deal and you back staying in the EU. Don't back the deal and we stay in the EU. Hmm.
    The latter includes the free gift of actually having a say in the rules making process.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    Marco1 said:

    @Scott_P
    Parliament has taken back control...! This was a decision given to the people, the people spoke and MPs are just carrying out a banana republic coup d'etat. How can you seriously believe you are a democrat ?

    The decision was never given to the people, legally. That they spoke of it that way is irresponsible but was never the case.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 591
    edited March 13

    nico67 said:

    If the ERG don’t back the deal the narrative is now building that they’ve trashed Brexit and will be blamed .

    The ERG don’t seem to realize the games up.

    Hmmm. Depends which narrative. Plenty of Leavers like Farage blaming May, Cabinet, all MPs and not just the ERG.
    Is that the Farage asking foreign governments to veto an extension . The ERG will get blamed if Brexit implodes . Other Tories are turning on them.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 2,944
    HYUFD said:

    No, the ERG has lost. Tonight's vote make a clear the Commons will vote for anything ultimately, including extension and permanent Single Market and Customs Union, EUref2 or even revoking Brexit over No Deal

    1. EU won't give us a short extension. MPs won't vote to accept the 2 year extension they offer. EU angry and fed up, times up UK take the deal or fuck off
    2. Permanent Single Market not on the table and isn't going to be offered now. See point 1
    3. MPs May vote to revoke in closing days. But no way to force May to act on it with ERG shielding her
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 1,153
    FF43 said:

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    Why would you refuse to believe that with all the evidence that’s available and in front of you?

    I don't know! It just doesn't compute. This. Is. What. They. Want. Why don't they want it?

    It does compute to me, funnily enough as a Remainer. I voted Remain because I thought EU membership was the best for the country. But the vote went the other way, and maybe I can accept the result, get with the programme. Yes Britain will be damaged by Brexit, but I didn't vote for it. Seeking to limit that damage is a worthwhile endeavour to me.

    If you are a Leaver, you didn't vote for damage limitation. You voted to make things better. All the practical downsides either don't exist, have nothing to do with Brexit, or are somebody else's fault. So why should you leave an organisation, where you have a say to a situation where that organisation simply tells what to do and you have no say? That wasn't what you voted for.

    Well, what did they expect? \if you leave the golf club, and just play as a guest, you don't get a place on the committee.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,187
    Not that it was ever in doubt but PL > Bundesliga
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825

    kle4 said:

    Back the deal and you back staying in the EU. Don't back the deal and we stay in the EU. Hmm.
    The latter includes the free gift of actually having a say in the rules making process.
    Yes, but somehow I expect him not to be grateful for that.

    Conservative George Freeman is one of those Conservative MPs who abstained on the amended motion, defying the government's orders.

    He tells BBC News that a general election is coming.

    "We lost three MPs last month, we lost 30 MPs in the last election," he says.

    "This is only going in one direction and we need to start to prepare for that."


    How exactly does having a GE, now, help you not head in a direction of losing more MPs?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 2,944
    Fenster said:

    Trying to put myself in the ERG’s shoes and understand their thinking... I’ll pretend I’m Steve Baker.
    Baker was a huge behind-the-scenes apparatchik for the Leave campaign, cleverly working the angles and representing the harder Brexit wonkish Eurosceptics (such as Cash and Redwood).

    Baker has dedicated a significant part of his life to getting the UK out of the EU and deserves accolades for his orchestration of the Leave campaign. You’d therefore think he would grab the opportunity to complete his life’s work and back May’s Deal, to at least ensure we leave.

    But he didn’t, and he shows no sign of intending to do so.

    Given how much it means to him I can only think that his position is a principled one. I think his problem is that he, and other hardcore Brexiteers like him, have come to represent a portion of the electorate who will only accept a pure, hard, yet unachievable Brexit. It has been a mistake by people like Baker, who surely knew it would never be easy, to convince these voters that a pure Brexit could be done. You’ve only got to see the hard Kipperesque leavers on Twitter to witness their intransigence. They will settle for nothing less than the perfect Brexit, and Baker and co know they are boxed into a corner on that.

    By voting for May’s Deal they’d effectively be seen as traitors and would kiss goodbye to all their supporters, to the detriment of the other thing they love, the Tory party.

    This. Why vote for dilute non-Brexit that screws your dreams when you can dig in and though inaction deliver your dreams of Brexit and be lauded a hero?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 3,342
    Marco1 said:

    @Scott_P
    Parliament has taken back control...! This was a decision given to the people, the people spoke and MPs are just carrying out a banana republic coup d'etat. How can you seriously believe you are a democrat ?

    This is how democracy works. Referendums are the favoured tool of tyrants.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,484
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Nearly 50 people, including actors Felicity Huffman and Lori Loughlin, were charged on Tuesday in what federal authorities say was a $25 million scam to help wealthy Americans get their children into elite universities like Yale and Stanford.

    The most sweeping college admissions fraud scheme ever unearthed in the United States was masterminded at a small college-preparation company based in Newport Beach, California, prosecutors said. It relied on bribes to coaches, phony test takers and even doctored photos misrepresenting non-athletic applicants as elite competitors to gain admissions for the offspring of rich parents."


    https://www.france24.com/en/20190313-usa-celebrities-wealthy-parents-charged-university-bribery-admissions-scandal

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 591
    If you add the 321 votes to the abstentions how many will vote for a second vote to ratify Mays deal over no deal.

    The ERG are unhinged and are busy killing off their own dream .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    Weaselly

    Speaking to the BBC, the Scottish Secretary David Mundell says: "The Cabinet should now act on the will of the House - that is to deliver our exit from the EU with a deal."

    "The prime minster has my full support in that," he adds.

    When asked if he should be sacked for not voting with the government, Mr Mundell said: "If you vote against the government, as some ministers did, you resign and accept responsibility for doing that.

    "I did not vote against the government."


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,863
    Off-topic:

    Both the back boxes have been retrieved after the Boeing 737Max crash the other day. The Ethiopian authorities are so happy with the way the Americans and Boeing have handled things so far they're sending the boxes to be analysed at BEA.

    Which is in Paris.

    Yes, the home country of Boeing's biggest rival (it sounds like we were in the running for it as well).

    That's got to hurt the pride of Boeing and the FAA.

    And in related news, the scuttlebut is that data from another satellite system shows the flight had a very similar profile to the one that crashed at the end of last year, and it was this info that caused Canada and the US to finally stop flights.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,484

    Sounds like the bloody Star Wars franchise :)
    Which side is the Empire, and which the Rebel Alliance?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 1,327
    Well, if you weren't trained to work out contingency plans for when things don't go according to the main plan and train for them on the assumption you'll need them, then you weren't paying attention and shouldn't be put in charge of even digging the bloody latrine.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,291
    edited March 13
    Mr P,

    Parliament voted to let the people decide by referendum. They didn't like the result so refused to allow the it to stand. When the MPs knowingly lie to the people they need changing. Yes, I know they always do, but not so brazenly.

    Do you think the people will say "OK, you know best. Just tell us how to vote next time."

    They daren't revoke, and a second referendum is ordering them to vote the correct way this time. Assuming people didn't abstain (what's the point), a Leave win would be ignored the same way and a Remain vote would be taken as gospel. What would that solve? It would add fuel to the flames.

    Think of all those Labour MPs going back to their Northern constituencies and trying to explain having another vote or a revocation.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 3,342

    Sounds like the bloody Star Wars franchise :)
    The odd numbers are the bad ones.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 28,855
    One thing is clear - any strategy there might have been to blame the EU for Brexit’s fall-out is in tatters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,613

    Sounds like the bloody Star Wars franchise :)
    The odd numbers are the bad ones.
    That's Star Trek.

    If this were Star Trek, the ERG would be either species 8472 or the Jem Hadar, probably the latter.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,337
    Corbyn/Boris/May/ERG * or other political figure.



    Brexit an open goal.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 349
    The government motion for tomorrow (if I understand it) is,essentially, if MV3 passes then we will request a short technical extension to end of June, and if MV3 doesn't pass then we will request a longer extension that will involve participation in the European elections.

    So if MV3 fails and we're requesting a longer extension anyway, why not tack on EUref2 to MV4. Which would also get around the "can't keep bringing substantively the same thing back again" thing. If MV3 fails then surely it's the only way May's deal can have any chance at all of being accepted.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 591
    CD13 said:

    Mr P,

    Parliament voted to let the people decide by referendum. They didn't like the result so refused to allow the it to stand. When the MPs knowingly lie to the people they need changing. Yes, I know they always do, but not so brazenly.

    Do you think the people will say "OK, you know best. Just tell us how to vote next time."

    They daren't revoke, and a second referendum is ordering them to vote the correct way this time. Assuming people didn't abstain (what's the point), a Leave win would be ignored the same way and a Remain vote would be taken as gospel. What would that solve? It would add fuel to the flames.

    Think of all those Labour MPs going back to their Northern constituencies are trying to explain having another vote or a revocation.

    The UK should leave with a deal . Fine but not no deal . Vote Leave promised a deal , Gove said that today . As a Remainer I can accept leaving but not a car crash no deal .
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,530

    One thing is clear - any strategy there might have been to blame the EU for Brexit’s fall-out is in tatters.

    The EU really do come across as the sensible adults in the room.....
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 326
    ydoethur said:

    Sounds like the bloody Star Wars franchise :)
    The odd numbers are the bad ones.
    That's Star Trek.

    If this were Star Trek, the ERG would be either species 8472 or the Jem Hadar, probably the latter.
    'WE ARE THE ERG. RESISTANCE IF FUTILE. YOUR CULTURE WILL ADAPT TO SERVICE US...'
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,804
    3-1 Liverpool
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 3,342
    Facebook is down.

    If it is going to be down for a while we might have time to sneak in General Election that they don't interfere with.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,613
    blueblue said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sounds like the bloody Star Wars franchise :)
    The odd numbers are the bad ones.
    That's Star Trek.

    If this were Star Trek, the ERG would be either species 8472 or the Jem Hadar, probably the latter.
    'WE ARE THE ERG. RESISTANCE IF FUTILE. YOUR CULTURE WILL ADAPT TO SERVICE US...'
    Actually it's the EU that really resemble the Borg - assimilating everyone and impossible to break free from the buggers.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 22,442
    4 english teams in European quarter finals. Well done to each and every one of them
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,005

    Facebook is down.

    If it is going to be down for a while we might have time to sneak in General Election that they don't interfere with.

    :lol:

    Or a 2nd referendum.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,214
    edited March 13

    FF43 said:

    I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

    Why would you refuse to believe that with all the evidence that’s available and in front of you?

    I don't know! It just doesn't compute. This. Is. What. They. Want. Why don't they want it?

    It does compute to me, funnily enough as a Remainer. I voted Remain because I thought EU membership was the best for the country. But the vote went the other way, and maybe I can accept the result, get with the programme. Yes Britain will be damaged by Brexit, but I didn't vote for it. Seeking to limit that damage is a worthwhile endeavour to me.

    If you are a Leaver, you didn't vote for damage limitation. You voted to make things better. All the practical downsides either don't exist, have nothing to do with Brexit, or are somebody else's fault. So why should you leave an organisation, where you have a say to a situation where that organisation simply tells what to do and you have no say? That wasn't what you voted for.

    Well, what did they expect? \if you leave the golf club, and just play as a guest, you don't get a place on the committee.
    a) The golf club and members are unreasonable, b) them not playing golf has nothing to do with them leaving the club c) who wants to play golf anyway? Any or all of the above .That's why leaving without a deal is not a problem. Being a member, paying the fees and being bound by the rules is a problem.

    Leaving the club but we still do actually want to play golf is damage limitation. As a visitor you play less golf, pay more for it potentially and have to play when no-one else wants to.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,804

    Sounds like the bloody Star Wars franchise :)
    The odd numbers are the bad ones.
    So MV4 it is then......
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 12,831

    The government motion for tomorrow (if I understand it) is,essentially, if MV3 passes then we will request a short technical extension to end of June, and if MV3 doesn't pass then we will request a longer extension that will involve participation in the European elections.

    So if MV3 fails and we're requesting a longer extension anyway, why not tack on EUref2 to MV4. Which would also get around the "can't keep bringing substantively the same thing back again" thing. If MV3 fails then surely it's the only way May's deal can have any chance at all of being accepted.

    General election.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,708
    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Nearly 50 people, including actors Felicity Huffman and Lori Loughlin, were charged on Tuesday in what federal authorities say was a $25 million scam to help wealthy Americans get their children into elite universities like Yale and Stanford.

    The most sweeping college admissions fraud scheme ever unearthed in the United States was masterminded at a small college-preparation company based in Newport Beach, California, prosecutors said. It relied on bribes to coaches, phony test takers and even doctored photos misrepresenting non-athletic applicants as elite competitors to gain admissions for the offspring of rich parents."


    https://www.france24.com/en/20190313-usa-celebrities-wealthy-parents-charged-university-bribery-admissions-scandal

    Maybe we should congratulate Cambridge and Oxford for abolishing these alleged practices in about 1860.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 591

    One thing is clear - any strategy there might have been to blame the EU for Brexit’s fall-out is in tatters.

    I’m really happy about this . The EU looks like the adult in the room , the UK government sadly is looking like a basket case .

    The media narrative is now over the complete shambles in the Commons . Brexiters attempts to blame the EU I agree have bitten the dust .
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,252
    LIIVVVEEEERRRRRPPPPPOOOOOOOLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!

    Time for head to meet pillow, more Parliamentary shenanigans to follow tomorrow.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 27,373
    Fenster said:

    Trying to put myself in the ERG’s shoes and understand their thinking... I’ll pretend I’m Steve Baker.
    Baker was a huge behind-the-scenes apparatchik for the Leave campaign, cleverly working the angles and representing the harder Brexit wonkish Eurosceptics (such as Cash and Redwood).

    Baker has dedicated a significant part of his life to getting the UK out of the EU and deserves accolades for his orchestration of the Leave campaign. You’d therefore think he would grab the opportunity to complete his life’s work and back May’s Deal, to at least ensure we leave.

    But he didn’t, and he shows no sign of intending to do so.

    Given how much it means to him I can only think that his position is a principled one. I think his problem is that he, and other hardcore Brexiteers like him, have come to represent a portion of the electorate who will only accept a pure, hard, yet unachievable Brexit. It has been a mistake by people like Baker, who surely knew it would never be easy, to convince these voters that a pure Brexit could be done. You’ve only got to see the hard Kipperesque leavers on Twitter to witness their intransigence. They will settle for nothing less than the perfect Brexit, and Baker and co know they are boxed into a corner on that.

    By voting for May’s Deal they’d effectively be seen as traitors and would kiss goodbye to all their supporters, to the detriment of the other thing they love, the Tory party.

    It's up to them to lead their supporters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 50,082
    Last 8

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,861
    edited March 13

    HYUFD said:

    No, the ERG has lost. Tonight's vote make a clear the Commons will vote for anything ultimately, including extension and permanent Single Market and Customs Union, EUref2 or even revoking Brexit over No Deal

    1. EU won't give us a short extension. MPs won't vote to accept the 2 year extension they offer. EU angry and fed up, times up UK take the deal or fuck off
    2. Permanent Single Market not on the table and isn't going to be offered now. See point 1
    3. MPs May vote to revoke in closing days. But no way to force May to act on it with ERG shielding her
    1. MPs would vote for a 100 year extension over No Deal based on tonights vote
    2. It would be as a concession from our side with full free movement, however Macron may demand EUref2 Remain v Deal for an extension, he has been working with Blair on this and the Commons would vote for that over No Deal too, tonight's vote is entirely in accordance with the Macron-Blair plan to reverse Brexit.
    3. May herself made clear yesterday she would let Parliament decide on all options if they continue to oppose her Deal, including revoking Brexit completely
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,530

    Sounds like the bloody Star Wars franchise :)
    The odd numbers are the bad ones.
    So MV4 it is then......
    Hmmmm...Theresa's logic...it's alright to vote and vote and vote again to get to the right decision....but a People's Vote...well that's a fucking outrage against democracy
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,613
    AndyJS said:

    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Nearly 50 people, including actors Felicity Huffman and Lori Loughlin, were charged on Tuesday in what federal authorities say was a $25 million scam to help wealthy Americans get their children into elite universities like Yale and Stanford.

    The most sweeping college admissions fraud scheme ever unearthed in the United States was masterminded at a small college-preparation company based in Newport Beach, California, prosecutors said. It relied on bribes to coaches, phony test takers and even doctored photos misrepresenting non-athletic applicants as elite competitors to gain admissions for the offspring of rich parents."


    https://www.france24.com/en/20190313-usa-celebrities-wealthy-parents-charged-university-bribery-admissions-scandal

    Maybe we should congratulate Cambridge and Oxford for abolishing these alleged practices in about 1860.
    Cameron, Balls, Cummings, Adonis, Blair were all their on merit?

    It's a view...

    Good night.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,291
    edited March 13
    Mr 67,

    May I ask if you trust the EU to act in good faith? If you do, the May deal is acceptable. I'm cynical about politicians but I'd prefer it to be our own gobshites making the decision rather than European gobshites who we have no control over.

    I suspect I'm not alone in that. I'd go along with Mrs May's deal because the European gobshites won't be able to stop themselves making things much worse.


    Edit: But I'm a softish Leaver.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 349

    The government motion for tomorrow (if I understand it) is,essentially, if MV3 passes then we will request a short technical extension to end of June, and if MV3 doesn't pass then we will request a longer extension that will involve participation in the European elections.

    So if MV3 fails and we're requesting a longer extension anyway, why not tack on EUref2 to MV4. Which would also get around the "can't keep bringing substantively the same thing back again" thing. If MV3 fails then surely it's the only way May's deal can have any chance at all of being accepted.

    General election.
    Makes sense if we're having a long extension, but if that's the intention then there's little point of MV4 before the end of March.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,530
    Pulpstar said:

    Last 8

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    Juventus (ITA)
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    Porto (POR)
    Tottenham Hotspur (ENG)
    Barcelona (ESP)
    Liverpool (ENG)

    Please let us avoid Barcelona....

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 27,373
    kle4 said:

    Back the deal and you back staying in the EU. Don't back the deal and we stay in the EU. Hmm.
    How do you deal with morons like this?

    He talks like an idiotic Twitter troll.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 326
    ydoethur said:

    blueblue said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sounds like the bloody Star Wars franchise :)
    The odd numbers are the bad ones.
    That's Star Trek.

    If this were Star Trek, the ERG would be either species 8472 or the Jem Hadar, probably the latter.
    'WE ARE THE ERG. RESISTANCE IF FUTILE. YOUR CULTURE WILL ADAPT TO SERVICE US...'
    Actually it's the EU that really resemble the Borg - assimilating everyone and impossible to break free from the buggers.
    I know, I just couldn't resist the pun. The EU simultaneously resemble two of the major Star Trek civilizations: the Borg, and - still more disturbingly - the Federation!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,825
    edited March 13
    tyson said:

    Sounds like the bloody Star Wars franchise :)
    The odd numbers are the bad ones.
    So MV4 it is then......
    Hmmmm...Theresa's logic...it's alright to vote and vote and vote again to get to the right decision....but a People's Vote...well that's a fucking outrage against democracy
    The time, ease and cost of the two is not the same, nor are votes in a deliberative assembly equivalent to a nationwide plebiscite, which is why they do not operate according to the same procedure for starters. We never got the chance to submit amendments to the Brexit question, but parliament can, is that an outrage?

    Another in a long list of reasons for a second vote which are bollocks, and not in the least bit illogical. The good reason for one, the overwhelming one, is that the Commons is unable to make a decision and so needs to ask the people again.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,579
    Scott_P said:
    Yes. I pointed that passage out this morning.
This discussion has been closed.