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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron can do to the Eurosceptic right in the EURef what
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron can do to the Eurosceptic right in the EURef what he did to Miliband’s LAB and Clegg’s Lib Dems
The reason OUT is so on the defensive at the moment is simply because of the force of the major initiatives from the Cameron team in week one. We have had the Treasury document and the £4,300 claim and then the Obama visit and press conference.
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I think the polling for the result yesterday in Austria shows us how much faith we can put in the polling at the moment, the EU ref on that sort of level of reliability could be anything from 40/60 to 60/40, we have no idea what is making progress with the public and what is being ignored. Interesting times.
Hofer got 36%. All the recent polls had him in the low twenties, slightly behind Van Der Bellen in the higher twenties. If polls are 10-12% out then we are fumbling in the dark trying to make sense of political events and their impact on the public, might as well roll dice.
On a related note, what this first week has shown is just how unsuited to major office Boris is. The Tories would be mad to choose him as Dave's replacement. But they are going through a sustained period of madness right now.
'Thank you for your perspective Mr President, but fear not, if (Scotland becomes independent/Britain leaves the EU) the US will still have a reliable friend and ally in (Scotland / the UK). What this illustrates is the panic in the (Better Together/Remain Campaign) and their failure to persuade the voters.
Of course Salmond had a pop at Cameron too, which LEAVE could get a Labour LEAVEr to do, if Boris is only happy attacking 'half-Kenyans'.....
Instead we've had the invective aimed at Obama.......'lame duck, blackmail, irrelevant, meaningless, weird.....heck, when Nigel says you've gone too far, surely its time to listen?
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/mh17-been-downed-ukrainian-fighter-7826518
http://www.onderzoeksraad.nl/en/onderzoek/2049/investigation-crash-mh17-17-july-2014
It will be fascinating to learn how a Ukrainian fighter could have shredded the bodies of the Pilot, Co-Pilot and Chief Steward with BUK Shrapnel.....
Any we don't need one. We already are one of the US's biggest trading partners without one, there are much higher priorities.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3264239/Let-long-term-illegals-stay-UK-says-Boris-London-mayor-believes-immigrants-12-years-granted-amnesty.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/do-bremainers-really-think-voters-will-be-cowed-by-the-likes-of/
Regarding the Kenyan thing a few are so keen to fusspot over - Brendan O'Neill doesn't agree. https://www.facebook.com/brendan.oneill.79?fref=nf
The Dutch report is very clear on what happened, identifying the type of missile used and from which direction it came.
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2014/11/14/russian-state-television-shares-fake-images-of-mh17-being-attacked/
That would really be the link to the AV referendum. For all that Cameron gave his backing to No2AV, which campaigned in part on the Lib Dems' broken promises - an apparent price of coalition politics (though really a bed the Lib Dems made for themselves in the expectation of not having that bluff called), the real winning argument of that campaign was 'one person, one vote'. Arguably, that was not entirely justified by the facts either (AV only gives people one vote too), but there you're getting into detail and explanation and if you're there, you're losing.
So I agree with you and Mike that Leave have messed it up mightily getting so worked up about Obama - because they're now having to explain the detail of why they're not anti-African racists, which is not the sort of detail you want to be campaigning on. On top of that, it's destroying public trust in their judgement, which in a debate where so much is assertion based on prediction, is extremely damaging.
Leave's problem is that they've a campaign packed full of political obsessives, and obsessives are often poor judges as to what the salient points of a political campaign are, and how best to make them. It could well be a big enough problem to cost them the vote.
Oh stop whining, people will say, but I'm afraid I can't simply allow our PM to stand alongside Hollande and Obama while they threaten us. Anecdote but fact, the ex conservative Chairman of my district council has publicly said the same. Regardless of the outcome Cameron is toast.
I wouldn't rule out a Gove/May play off in the finals.
Obama is of a similar opinion. Tightening the rules on who gets into the US and then looking at ways to get the people in the country that you have no realistic prospect of chucking out, into the workforce and paying taxes.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-tightens-visa-waiver-rules-following-terror-attacks-1453405306
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/21/us/obama-immigration-speech.html?_r=0
The US has just recently tightened rules on H1 and L1 visas as well making them harder to get.
But arguing for the abolition of the EP and at the same time complaining that we "can't kick out politicians we don't like" is contradictory. In a sense it's true - how do you get rid of a bad Commission - but the only realistic remedies involve the EP. Hannan is meeting himself coming backwards.
1) we don't yet know how the public has reacted to Barack Obama's intervention. It was high risk. It may have persuaded some, it may have annoyed others.
2) the Leave camp has completely lost its head about this. Day 4 of the Obamadrama and Boris Johnson is still digging that hole for himself. The erratic response from various Leave campaigners has probably done far more damage to their cause than anything the president said.
3) Many Leavers are immune to reasoned argument. Unlike both the Lib Dems and Ed Miliband, there is a hardened cohort who will never give up the fight. They aren't going to go away and even if they lose comprehensively, they will delude themselves that it was an unjust defeat. They will regroup and seek to wreak havoc in different ways.
However, they are not superhuman. They can't spend £9.3m on another HMG leaflet nor wheel out Obama for a 2nd time - they have played those cards - and spending limits have kicked in, with purdah from the end of May.
The key thing is how the debate is framed and, on that, Leave simply have to get on top if they want to have a chance.
I've not interest in rebutting anything, open-minded on EU. I don't live there anymore after all. I will have a postal vote I think, but I may not use it.
Of course as #1 on the South of Englasd Tory list there's no other way of kicking Dan Hannan out, which is why party lists are a bad idea.
Leave had a truly spectacularly bad first week and I don't agree with those who claim that they should hold back on their best cards. Unless they seize the lead now and get some control of the framing of the debate any such aces will end up being discarded against the wrong suit whilst remain clear up.
Cameron and Osborne are masters at framing the debate, especially the economic debate. Once they have done that individual mistakes and faux pas really don't matter because people reach their own inevitable conclusions. Leave has very little time left to get in the game.
Personally, I think Leave should turn comparisons with rich, happy countries like Norway, Switzerland and Canada into an asset and go for bread & butter issues like lower food and house prices, better public finances and higher wages.
Oh, and New Zealand's been trying to get a trade deal with the US since 2003.......13 years, and counting.....
To me May should be the slight favourite at this stage, she'll be pragmatic rather than fervent in the EU debate, is the grandee who can try and clear up the party's mess after the referendum.
Doesn't bode well for the Conservatives after the presumed win, does it? "Total destruction of Dave's opponents" = total destruction of a good party of his party?
The USA has free trade agreements with 20 countries, the bulk of which were signed between 2000-2010, does rather suggest they are capable of negotiating more than one agreement at once.
Also they signed TTP this year, which means they have been negotiating both TTP and TTIP, they two biggest deals at the same time for most of the last decade. The idea that the US Department of Trade can't walk and chew gum at the same time seems a little threadbare.
Right now Leave look in chaos. Their best hope is that entrenched attitudes on their side mean that they remain competitive. But getting embroiled in an argument about dogwhistling on race with the president of the USA is not a good look. And it doesn't answer the economic risk point at all, so Remain's claims are going unanswered while Boris Johnson defends his words and even Nigel Farage is distancing himself from him.
But we urgently need some fresh polling.
This really is a red herring. The billions traded with the USA already make us one of their largest partners.
This is a great chart.
https://twitter.com/paul1kirby/status/724155873363410944
Similarly the Obamadrama gets the response "a trade deal may only take a couple of years"
Leave will do well on immigration as an issue, but risk losing all other arguments, as well as ruling out EEA/EFTA as an option.
* interesting discussion with my sib who used to work in economic forecasting last night, he thinks the Treasury report significantly underestimates the cost of Brexit.
His precious NHS has ground to a halt again - perhaps he could find the time to deal with that?
How that resolves itself who knows? (or maybe the status-ish quo will prevail)
2020's going to be interesting, particularly as the Tories are rapidly running out of friends with whom they can hope to form a coalition.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/23/a-pro-eu-study-straight-from-the-ministry-of-truth/ But economists are like lawyers. If you ask two of them what they think, you will get three opinions.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/janetdaley/6521517/Hate-the-EU-Then-I-beg-you-to-vote-Tory.html
I assume the GDP forecasts are per capita? But not only does it look like 1975, it is beginning to look like the Scottish referendum, A head vs heart battle that didn't go that well for the winners.
Patriots should demand that the Beeb is taken over by Murdoch and the Daily Mail. And if you're not prepared to torture Guardian readers to death you ain't no patriot.
Seam Thomas is God!
“And probably it’s fair to say we’re not winning, we’ve got great security services keeping us safe, but the problem is not shrinking, it’s growing. One of the things we need to do is isolate those people who have extremist views and come down upon them without making the rest of the community feeling isolated.
“It’s very difficult but the one thing you don’t do is give platforms and oxygen and cover and excuses for people who are on the wrong side of the argument and that’s what he’s done consistently.”
“If you want to be mayor of London you have got to show good judgement and I think he has consistently shown really bad judgement, whether that’s opportunism or something else but it is bad judgement and I think the idea that that extraordinary post should be held by someone who has so consistently wrong on this issue for so many years, is at the very least a legitimate question to ask.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/sadiq-khan-unfit-to-be-london-mayor-says-zac-goldsmith/
Democracy
While they went on £350m a week, they have underestimated the intelligence of much of the public, who can actually think for themselves and won't believe the first piece of propaganda which reinforces their view of the world. (While there is a degree of that kind of thinking, it is far from universal).
The economic angle is not abut the desire to leave, it is purely a reinforcement - in that having an economically safe plan allows people to go to the booth and vote for that which they want, on the basis that their day to day life won't fall off a cliff. In reality, the only likely way out of the EU is slowly - via EEA/EFTA as the first stage - which is fiscally neutral for the foreseeable future, and if Vote Leave had not gone all Faragista on immigration, then they might have stood a realistic chance of making that point, thereby reducing much of the Government's spin operation to dust.
It says economic fears of Brexit are wildly overblown with effects more likely to be positive than negative in the long run.
I think many are angry with Obama because he can hypocritically stand there and tell Britain to be open to unlimited immigration, whilst the US has very very strict immigration criteria.
The trade deal is a red herring, designed by No 10 to frighten voters, but in practice will not affect trade.
Remain certainly have the initiative right now, and Leave need to work out their plan. Leave need a consistent counter-argument (eg to US trade) and deploy it every time asked - before moving the argument on to one of their own points.
And they need to do it fast.
MIVD made that assessment in the context of explaining why commercial aircraft continued to fly over the eastern Ukrainian battle zone in summer 2014. MIVD said that based on “state secret” information, it was known that Ukraine possessed some older but “powerful anti-aircraft systems” and “a number of these systems were located in the eastern part of the country.”
The intelligence agency added that the rebels lacked that capability: “Prior to the crash, the MIVD knew that, in addition to light aircraft artillery, the Separatists also possessed short-range portable air defence systems (man-portable air-defence systems; MANPADS) and that they possibly possessed short-range vehicle-borne air-defence systems. Both types of systems are considered surface-to-air missiles (SAMs). Due to their limited range they do not constitute a danger to civil aviation at cruising altitude.”
http://english.ctivd.nl/documents/reports/2015/10/13/index
https://consortiumnews.com/2016/03/16/the-ever-curiouser-mh-17-case/
Presumably this is all part of some Putin conspiracy in your mind? Not sure quite how the fact the US continues to stonewall victims families on releasing the data and photos they claimed they had plays into that for you? Would love to hear though.
Immigration is required for post-Brexit economic growth.
So knowing that the "two linked, very strong, easy to understand arguments in their favour" are neither, Gove instead tries "8 WEEKS TO SAVE THE NHS!!!!"
And we all know how well that works...
In the longer run, Gove vs May for the leadership looks the likeliest contest at present (but really who knows?). But it will not be a re-run of the referendum - it really won't.
Worth noting the onset of civil war as Rome's national sport did not enhance its longevity in the West.
I think we get the PM's we need for the times we live in.(and we largely avoid the ones we oughtn't to have)(( Gordon Brown was a noted and disastrous exception )) Dave is cleverer than most give him credit for.... bile spills every time "LEAVE's toes are trodden on.
The nastier LEAVE becomes , the more certain I am that REMAIN will win.
And that's not what a majority of people wish to do.
The irony of becoming ever more hooked on the magic money tree is that it hides the power and wealth transfer from the average person to the 1%.
Enjoy paying back Osborne's £172bn of overborrowing fellow PBers.
@GuardianAnushka: IDS defending Boris on "part-Kenyan"- saying London mayor was pointing at reasons Obama might have lack of regard for the UK.
@tnewtondunn: IDS: "You can't talk to Boris yourself". John Humphrys: "We'll actually we can't, because he won't come on the programme" #bbcr4today
To see how silly it is, look at countries where there is a formal trade embago. They can still get whatever they want. Maybe not in the same quantities, and not at the same price. But any cursory inspection would inform you that that, in the real world, the price premium is actually very small.
No businesses, much less well respcted UK firms, are dependent on govt-organised trade deals.
It was all over the British press and Bacardi fired him. They didn't fire him for being drunk. That was his persona. They fired him because the photo accompanying the story showed him lying on a sunlounger drinking a scotch and soda.
Boris's credibility as a salesperson has been completely shot. Everyone knows he's a clown. No one knew he had no judgement. This referendum is all about which side the voters trust most. Boris has just reduced his celebrity endorsement value to zero.
https://twitter.com/herald_editor/status/724493522259349504
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/724499008698208256
Kasich has no money to campaign anyway. Cruz has seen his ratings tumble since the delegate shenanigans. Both will suffer if they are seen to collude in this manner with their Trump second choices likely to peel off. Given the polling in Indiana and California it is about the only card they have to play though.
Kasich is on Trump's left, Cruz on his right. There is not much crossover and the NeverTrumps constitute only a small percentage who already switch.
'The significant departure from the plan announced by George Osborne in his budget speech last month will seek to appease up to 40 Tory rebels who risked defeating the Government's bid to make the change.'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/25/academy-plan-u-turn-by-nicky-morgan-as-she-seeks-to-calm-tory-re/
A taste of things to come.
What a mess Morgan is making of her brief. And to think she was talking about running for the leadership. Cameron needs to reshuffle her out of the way as soon as EU result is in (if he's still there).
Plus, they were both one-off wars. Rome was pitted into a state where it had civil wars at the start of the imperial period under Augustus, around 69AD [may have the year wrong] in the Year of the Four Emperors, was calm for about a century. But, (following Septimius Severus claimed the purple), when Alexander Severus was slain by Maximin there was a rash of civil warfare, with the empire itself splitting at one point.
Without Aurelian's excellent leadership, Rome could've ended in the 3rd century, and the Dark Ages started two centuries early. Not to mention, Rome embarked, in the West, on an unstoppable downward spiral because its strength was consumed by infighting, its people had been enervated by luxury, and its enemies were growing stronger.
The Conservative EU sceptics aren't going to go away. Either they win, or the war goes on. Cameron cares more about the EU than he does his party. The sceptics care more about leaving the EU than their party.