If there's anything that should be entertaining to all sides in a political fight (even if only in hindsight for one side), it is when spin doctors are scrambling.
FPT - The election in Wales Is the forecast I read in the FPT of Labour losing Cardiff Central to the Lib Dems really viable with the LDs forecast to be just 6% across Wales? Last time LDs achieved 10.6% in constituencies and 8% in the regional list so how would the LD vote in Cardiff hold up rather than dramatically drop even faster than Labour's slide?
FPT - The election in Wales Is the forecast I read in the FPT of Labour losing Cardiff Central to the Lib Dems really viable with the LDs forecast to be just 6% across Wales? Last time LDs achieved 10.6% in constituencies and 8% in the regional list so how would the LD vote in Cardiff hold up rather than dramatically drop even faster than Labour's slide?
The Lib Dems are polling three points below their 2011 constituency vote across Wales; Labour are polling nine points lower. Therefore, projecting using UNS, the LibDems would take Cardiff Central [edit], which Labour won by just 38 votes over the Lib Dems in 2011.
FPT - The election in Wales Is the forecast I read in the FPT of Labour losing Cardiff Central to the Lib Dems really viable with the LDs forecast to be just 6% across Wales? Last time LDs achieved 10.6% in constituencies and 8% in the regional list so how would the LD vote in Cardiff hold up rather than dramatically drop even faster than Labour's slide?
Seems unlikely. TBH, I think expectations of LibDem seat gains in the locals - when they're on 8% in the polls versus 12% at the same time in 2012 - seem wishful thinking as well.
Par for the course, I remember being told after a meeting with a Minister once by a senior civil servant "That's not what the Minister said, and if it is what the Minister said, then it's not what the Minister meant".
Cardiff Central is hyper-marginal. However, it was a Labour gain in 2011 so they may well get an incumbency bonus (and the Lib Dems won't benefit from any they got in 2011). So I expect a Labour hold.
FPT - The election in Wales Is the forecast I read in the FPT of Labour losing Cardiff Central to the Lib Dems really viable with the LDs forecast to be just 6% across Wales? Last time LDs achieved 10.6% in constituencies and 8% in the regional list so how would the LD vote in Cardiff hold up rather than dramatically drop even faster than Labour's slide?
My constituency and I don't know tbh. Two horse race for sure and I struggle to see the Libs recovering from a 5k loss only 12 months ago at the GE, even though there were only 38 (thirty eight) votes in it at the last Assembly election. Both candidates are lukewarm or totally hostile to the big local issue of the M4 relief road so as I sat in an 18 mile tailback on it yesterday due to an accident well prior to the rush hour, I thought a "plague on both their houses". You can't hand wring about jobs ( steel or otherwise) round here and not see the case for a road which due to local geography is the carotid artery of S Wales.
Prediction for what it's worth: labour by more than 38 but less than 5k.
FPT - The election in Wales Is the forecast I read in the FPT of Labour losing Cardiff Central to the Lib Dems really viable with the LDs forecast to be just 6% across Wales? Last time LDs achieved 10.6% in constituencies and 8% in the regional list so how would the LD vote in Cardiff hold up rather than dramatically drop even faster than Labour's slide?
The Lib Dems are polling three points below their 2011 constituency vote across Wales; Labour are polling nine points lower. Therefore, projecting using UNS, the LibDems would take Cardiff Central [edit], which Labour won by just 38 votes over the Lib Dems in 2011.
Does that work though? Are there enough votes to lose elsewhere to allow the Lib Dem vote to remain high enough in the target seats?
Apparently Mrs BJ will never walk more than a few paces ever again.
The spine operation hasn't been able to restore her mobility and there is nothing further that can be done from a surgery point of view.
Now passed on to a Neurologist as MS is suspected as well.
Taking a few months break from PB
Very sorry to here that BJ. I know what it means when ones partner is not completely mobile and in pain daily. Hopefully we will hear from you at summers end.
Thank you to the person who posted this Wales poll. It tends to confirm earlier polling. Some caveats to apply:
Uniform swings don't work. Therefore treat UKIP figures with caution. The areas I expect them to do well are Clwyd as was and the south east. I will be surprised if they take list seats in Mid/West Wales, although you never know. My estimate is about 5 seats. The big unknown is the Western Valleys up to Port Talbot and Swansea. It is just possible although not likely anti-European sentiment might make a sudden surge there.
Another question should hang over Brecon and Radnor although that isn't mentioned. This seat is gradually trending right and Kirsty Williams is going to be under some pressure. If she loses however the Yellows should take a list seat there at probably Plaid's expense.
I share others' doubts about Cardiff Central. Given the profile of the seat and the current state of politics. I think if any party might suddenly leap into contention there it's not the Yellows but the Greens. There is however no sign of that in this poll.
The most depressing part is the last. People in large parts of Wales would, yes, vote for Jez as they see him however wrongly as a proper Socialist who's on their side. What will depress the Labour vote is 17 years in power, a desperate talent shortage, chronic mismanagement of the national economy and imploding public services. But because of the way these votes fall, they will still lead a Labour/Plaid coalition as no other options are on the table. If bets are still being offered on that, it should be free money.
That would leave opportunities for a sensible, moderate, well-led Conservative party to exploit and rise. Such a party does not exist and it is hard to see Labour being removed from office for the foreseeable future as a result.
welshowl and Mr Meeks, both for a Labour hold in Cardiff Central. Will the LDs therefore just have one seat? With Kirsty as a Leader with no troops? Or is even Kirsty under threat? A year ago the incumbent LD MP dropped from 46% to 28% and lost to a Conservative. Kirsty got 43% last time in 2011.
FPT - The election in Wales Is the forecast I read in the FPT of Labour losing Cardiff Central to the Lib Dems really viable with the LDs forecast to be just 6% across Wales? Last time LDs achieved 10.6% in constituencies and 8% in the regional list so how would the LD vote in Cardiff hold up rather than dramatically drop even faster than Labour's slide?
Seems unlikely. TBH, I think expectations of LibDem seat gains in the locals - when they're on 8% in the polls versus 12% at the same time in 2012 - seem wishful thinking as well.
The expectation has been that Corbyn will be the Leader under pressure after these results come out across the UK. But may be it could be Farron as well? Lib Dem fightback looking a bit suspect. However most predictions forecast a small gain of councillors.
welshowl and Mr Meeks, both for a Labour hold in Cardiff Central. Will the LDs therefore just have one seat? With Kirsty as a Leader with no troops? Or is even Kirsty under threat? A year ago the incumbent LD MP dropped from 46% to 28% and lost to a Conservative. Kirsty got 43% last time in 2011.
The seat appears to be drifting to the Conservatives, like Montgomeryshire. Unlike Montgomeryshire it does have something of a Conservative history, having been held by Jonathan Evans until 1997. It wouldn't be a great shock if it turned blue but it's not perhaps likely. I'd say it's 4-1. Any bet above that is value.
welshowl and Mr Meeks, both for a Labour hold in Cardiff Central. Will the LDs therefore just have one seat? With Kirsty as a Leader with no troops? Or is even Kirsty under threat? A year ago the incumbent LD MP dropped from 46% to 28% and lost to a Conservative. Kirsty got 43% last time in 2011.
I think the LDs end up with two in Wales; Kirsty and one list seat.
Thank you to the person who posted this Wales poll. It tends to confirm earlier polling. Some caveats to apply:
Uniform swings don't work. Therefore treat UKIP figures with caution. The areas I expect them to do well are Clwyd as was and the south east. I will be surprised if they take list seats in Mid/West Wales, although you never know. My estimate is about 5 seats. The big unknown is the Western Valleys up to Port Talbot and Swansea. It is just possible although not likely anti-European sentiment might make a sudden surge there.
Another question should hang over Brecon and Radnor although that isn't mentioned. This seat is gradually trending right and Kirsty Williams is going to be under some pressure. If she loses however the Yellows should take a list seat there at probably Plaid's expense.
I share others' doubts about Cardiff Central. Given the profile of the seat and the current state of politics. I think if any party might suddenly leap into contention there it's not the Yellows but the Greens. There is however no sign of that in this poll.
The most depressing part is the last. People in large parts of Wales would, yes, vote for Jez as they see him however wrongly as a proper Socialist who's on their side. What will depress the Labour vote is 17 years in power, a desperate talent shortage, chronic mismanagement of the national economy and imploding public services. But because of the way these votes fall, they will still lead a Labour/Plaid coalition as no other options are on the table. If bets are still being offered on that, it should be free money.
That would leave opportunities for a sensible, moderate, well-led Conservative party to exploit and rise. Such a party does not exist and it is hard to see Labour being removed from office for the foreseeable future as a result.
God help Wales.
Wouldn't a Labour minority be an option too? After all, Plaid don't have to do a comprehensive deal - they could work on a vote-by-vote basis.
FPT - The election in Wales Is the forecast I read in the FPT of Labour losing Cardiff Central to the Lib Dems really viable with the LDs forecast to be just 6% across Wales? Last time LDs achieved 10.6% in constituencies and 8% in the regional list so how would the LD vote in Cardiff hold up rather than dramatically drop even faster than Labour's slide?
Seems unlikely. TBH, I think expectations of LibDem seat gains in the locals - when they're on 8% in the polls versus 12% at the same time in 2012 - seem wishful thinking as well.
The expectation has been that Corbyn will be the Leader under pressure after these results come out across the UK. But may be it could be Farron as well? Lib Dem fightback looking a bit suspect. However most predictions forecast a small gain of councillors.
Farron has two priceless advantages: (1) he began with practically nothing and (2) there remain no credible alternatives who would be doing demonstrably better.
Corbyn, by contrast, has neither advantage but does still have the membership more or less in thrall to his legend and ignoring little things like real life and common sense.
Thank you to the person who posted this Wales poll. It tends to confirm earlier polling. Some caveats to apply:
Uniform swings don't work. Therefore treat UKIP figures with caution. The areas I expect them to do well are Clwyd as was and the south east. I will be surprised if they take list seats in Mid/West Wales, although you never know. My estimate is about 5 seats. The big unknown is the Western Valleys up to Port Talbot and Swansea. It is just possible although not likely anti-European sentiment might make a sudden surge there.
Another question should hang over Brecon and Radnor although that isn't mentioned. This seat is gradually trending right and Kirsty Williams is going to be under some pressure. If she loses however the Yellows should take a list seat there at probably Plaid's expense.
I share others' doubts about Cardiff Central. Given the profile of the seat and the current state of politics. I think if any party might suddenly leap into contention there it's not the Yellows but the Greens. There is however no sign of that in this poll.
The most depressing part is the last. People in large parts of Wales would, yes, vote for Jez as they see him however wrongly as a proper Socialist who's on their side. What will depress the Labour vote is 17 years in power, a desperate talent shortage, chronic mismanagement of the national economy and imploding public services. But because of the way these votes fall, they will still lead a Labour/Plaid coalition as no other options are on the table. If bets are still being offered on that, it should be free money.
That would leave opportunities for a sensible, moderate, well-led Conservative party to exploit and rise. Such a party does not exist and it is hard to see Labour being removed from office for the foreseeable future as a result.
God help Wales.
Yup agree with that including help from any Lord.
Can't see the greens making a breakthrough in C Central they are invisible ( despite its university seat profile). Agree too about Brecon: it's getting posher up there so K Williams is not a shoo in I think. Tory leader is a bit "meh", but Labour, Carwyn aside, a bit crap too ( even if they have had the boys to post guards on Offa's dike so to speak to make sure Corbyn doesn't sneak over and open his mouth). UKIP have been an utter utter shambles in their desire to get at the trough via the helpful Welsh list system but I agree P Talbot ain't playing well for the EU.
All in all it ain't pretty now and what's worse is we will probably end up Labour/Plaid unless we sneak a Labour/Lib by about a seat.
Here is the focus of one of the Lib Dems Welsh AMs. Focused on fighting hard for this election? Not much sign. http://peterblack.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/how-safe-is-our-personal-data.html Tuesday, May 03, 2016 The challenge of getting onto the housing ladder Monday, May 02, 2016 Welcome move on restaurant tipping Sunday, May 01, 2016 New technology I will not touch with a barge pole Saturday, April 30, 2016 Has Labour's anti-semitism row put Corbyn's leadership in jeopardy? Wednesday, April 27, 2016 Why Theresa May is wrong to want to quit the European Court on Human Rights
Thank you to the person who posted this Wales poll. It tends to confirm earlier polling. Some caveats to apply:
Uniform swings don't work. Therefore treat UKIP figures with caution. The areas I expect them to do well are Clwyd as was and the south east. I will be surprised if they take list seats in Mid/West Wales, although you never know. My estimate is about 5 seats. The big unknown is the Western Valleys up to Port Talbot and Swansea. It is just possible although not likely anti-European sentiment might make a sudden surge there.
Another question should hang over Brecon and Radnor although that isn't mentioned. This seat is gradually trending right and Kirsty Williams is going to be under some pressure. If she loses however the Yellows should take a list seat there at probably Plaid's expense.
I share others' doubts about Cardiff Central. Given the profile of the seat and the current state of politics. I think if any party might suddenly leap into contention there it's not the Yellows but the Greens. There is however no sign of that in this poll.
The most depressing part is the last. People in large parts of Wales would, yes, vote for Jez as they see him however wrongly as a proper Socialist who's on their side. What will depress the Labour vote is 17 years in power, a desperate talent shortage, chronic mismanagement of the national economy and imploding public services. But because of the way these votes fall, they will still lead a Labour/Plaid coalition as no other options are on the table. If bets are still being offered on that, it should be free money.
That would leave opportunities for a sensible, moderate, well-led Conservative party to exploit and rise. Such a party does not exist and it is hard to see Labour being removed from office for the foreseeable future as a result.
God help Wales.
Wouldn't a Labour minority be an option too? After all, Plaid don't have to do a comprehensive deal - they could work on a vote-by-vote basis.
On those figures, I think they're just too far short. If it was 29, it might be managed.
Effectively they would be 26 to 32. That's the equivalent of about 60 seats short at Westminster given the relative sizes of the two (I realise that's not strictly comparable)! They need to close that gap and they will also quite simply need new ministers to come in and take over from the duds Jones is trying to manage.
Plaid might be foolish to take it, but Leanne Wood is a Socialist, a Valleys girl and possessed of the political acumen of a daffodil. I think she'll accept a tie-up.
welshowl and Mr Meeks, both for a Labour hold in Cardiff Central. Will the LDs therefore just have one seat? With Kirsty as a Leader with no troops? Or is even Kirsty under threat? A year ago the incumbent LD MP dropped from 46% to 28% and lost to a Conservative. Kirsty got 43% last time in 2011.
I think the LDs end up with two in Wales; Kirsty and one list seat.
Well you were too optimistic about LD MPs a year ago.... Yet not as wildly optimistic/wrong as I was at 25 MPs!
Thank you to the person who posted this Wales poll. It tends to confirm earlier polling. Some caveats to apply:
Uniform swings don't work. Therefore treat UKIP figures with caution. The areas I expect them to do well are Clwyd as was and the south east. I will be surprised if they take list seats in Mid/West Wales, although you never know. My estimate is about 5 seats. The big unknown is the Western Valleys up to Port Talbot and Swansea. It is just possible although not likely anti-European sentiment might make a sudden surge there.
Another question should hang over Brecon and Radnor although that isn't mentioned. This seat is gradually trending right and Kirsty Williams is going to be under some pressure. If she loses however the Yellows should take a list seat there at probably Plaid's expense.
I share others' doubts about Cardiff Central. Given the profile of the seat and the current state of politics. I think if any party might suddenly leap into contention there it's not the Yellows but the Greens. There is however no sign of that in this poll.
The most depressing part is the last. People in large parts of Wales would, yes, vote for Jez as they see him however wrongly as a proper Socialist who's on their side. What will depress the Labour vote is 17 years in power, a desperate talent shortage, chronic mismanagement of the national economy and imploding public services. But because of the way these votes fall, they will still lead a Labour/Plaid coalition as no other options are on the table. If bets are still being offered on that, it should be free money.
That would leave opportunities for a sensible, moderate, well-led Conservative party to exploit and rise. Such a party does not exist and it is hard to see Labour being removed from office for the foreseeable future as a result.
God help Wales.
Wouldn't a Labour minority be an option too? After all, Plaid don't have to do a comprehensive deal - they could work on a vote-by-vote basis.
On those figures, I think they're just too far short. If it was 29, it might be managed.
Effectively they would be 26 to 32. That's the equivalent of about 60 seats short at Westminster given the relative sizes of the two (I realise that's not strictly comparable)! They need to close that gap and they will also quite simply need new ministers to come in and take over from the duds Jones is trying to manage.
Plaid might be foolish to take it, but Leanne Wood is a Socialist, a Valleys girl and possessed of the political acumen of a daffodil. I think she'll accept a tie-up.
I would agree on Labour being fav to hold Cardiff Central
I would expect them to lose Llanelli to Plaid
The seats Labour hold but lost to Conservatives at 2015 GE are Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Cardiff North and Vale of Glamorgan.
VoG was lost by a mile last year. The incumbent Labour AM Jane Hutt seems to have a bit of personal vote though. I suppose Julie Morgan could have some personal vote in Cardiff North. In Gower the incumbent is standing down. A list AM is standing for Labour but she represented another region. So I suppose no personal vote to benefit from.
Anyway I would expect quite close results in those 4 and the outcomes will make a difference between a solid performance for Labour (holding all 4), a disappointing one (2-2) or a very bad showing (losing all 4)
Thank you to the person who posted this Wales poll. It tends to confirm earlier polling. Some caveats to apply:
Uniform swings don't work. Therefore treat UKIP figures with caution. The areas I expect them to do well are Clwyd as was and the south east. I will be surprised if they take list seats in Mid/West Wales, although you never know. My estimate is about 5 seats. The big unknown is the Western Valleys up to Port Talbot and Swansea. It is just possible although not likely anti-European sentiment might make a sudden surge there.
Another question should hang over Brecon and Radnor although that isn't mentioned. This seat is gradually trending right and Kirsty Williams is going to be under some pressure. If she loses however the Yellows should take a list seat there at probably Plaid's expense.
I share others' doubts about Cardiff Central. Given the profile of the seat and the current state of politics. I think if any party might suddenly leap into contention there it's not the Yellows but the Greens. There is however no sign of that in this poll.
The most depressing part is the last. People in large parts of Wales would, yes, vote for Jez as they see him however wrongly as a proper Socialist who's on their side. What will depress the Labour vote is 17 years in power, a desperate talent shortage, chronic mismanagement of the national economy and imploding public services. But because of the way these votes fall, they will still lead a Labour/Plaid coalition as no other options are on the table. If bets are still being offered on that, it should be free money.
That would leave opportunities for a sensible, moderate, well-led Conservative party to exploit and rise. Such a party does not exist and it is hard to see Labour being removed from office for the foreseeable future as a result.
God help Wales.
Wouldn't a Labour minority be an option too? After all, Plaid don't have to do a comprehensive deal - they could work on a vote-by-vote basis.
On those figures, I think they're just too far short. If it was 29, it might be managed.
Effectively they would be 26 to 32. That's the equivalent of about 60 seats short at Westminster given the relative sizes of the two (I realise that's not strictly comparable)! They need to close that gap and they will also quite simply need new ministers to come in and take over from the duds Jones is trying to manage.
Plaid might be foolish to take it, but Leanne Wood is a Socialist, a Valleys girl and possessed of the political acumen of a daffodil. I think she'll accept a tie-up.
Thank you to the person who posted this Wales poll. It tends to confirm earlier polling. Some caveats to apply:
Uniform swings don't work. Therefore treat UKIP figures with caution. The areas I expect them to do well are Clwyd as was and the south east. I will be surprised if they take list seats in Mid/West Wales, although you never know. My estimate is about 5 seats. The big unknown is the Western Valleys up to Port Talbot and Swansea. It is just possible although not likely anti-European sentiment might make a sudden surge there.
Another question should hang over Brecon and Radnor although that isn't mentioned. This seat is gradually trending right and Kirsty Williams is going to be under some pressure. If she loses however the Yellows should take a list seat there at probably Plaid's expense.
I share others' doubts about Cardiff Central. Given the profile of the seat and the current state of politics. I think if any party might suddenly leap into contention there it's not the Yellows but the Greens. There is however no sign of that in this poll.
The most depressing part is the last. People in large parts of Wales would, yes, vote for Jez as they see him however wrongly as a proper Socialist who's on their side. What will depress the Labour vote is 17 years in power, a desperate talent shortage, chronic mismanagement of the national economy and imploding public services. But because of the way these votes fall, they will still lead a Labour/Plaid coalition as no other options are on the table. If bets are still being offered on that, it should be free money.
That would leave opportunities for a sensible, moderate, well-led Conservative party to exploit and rise. Such a party does not exist and it is hard to see Labour being removed from office for the foreseeable future as a result.
God help Wales.
Wouldn't a Labour minority be an option too? After all, Plaid don't have to do a comprehensive deal - they could work on a vote-by-vote basis.
On those figures, I think they're just too far short. If it was 29, it might be managed.
Effectively they would be 26 to 32. That's the equivalent of about 60 seats short at Westminster given the relative sizes of the two (I realise that's not strictly comparable)! They need to close that gap and they will also quite simply need new ministers to come in and take over from the duds Jones is trying to manage.
Plaid might be foolish to take it, but Leanne Wood is a Socialist, a Valleys girl and possessed of the political acumen of a daffodil. I think she'll accept a tie-up.
I would agree on Labour being fav to hold Cardiff Central
I would expect them to lose Llanelli to Plaid
The seats Labour hold but lost to Conservatives at 2015 GE are Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Cardiff North and Vale of Glamorgan.
VoG was lost by a mile last year. The incumbent Labour AM Jane Hutt seems to have a bit of personal vote though. I suppose Julie Morgan could have some personal vote in Cardiff North. In Gower the incumbent is standing down. A list AM is standing for Labour but she represented another region. So I suppose no personal vote to benefit from.
Anyway I would expect quite close results in those 4 and the outcomes will make a difference between a solid performance for Labour (holding all 4), a disappointing one (2-2) or a very bad showing (losing all 4)
Yes. Hutt needs personal vote to avoid being toast. Cardiff North closer and J Morgan must have a few personals too though that said Cardiff North was a bit of a surprise here last year as the Tory majority went from about 100 to about 2k from memory to much local surprise.
Hello TC. Thanks. I've been very busy in the last few months having not much time for myself. I tried to follow as much as possible though. And I couldn't miss the election night. Thankfully the work deadline I had was for last Friday. Therefore I can stay up all night on Thursday and sleep on Friday in between night and afternoon counts.
I would agree on Labour being fav to hold Cardiff Central
I would expect them to lose Llanelli to Plaid
The seats Labour hold but lost to Conservatives at 2015 GE are Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Cardiff North and Vale of Glamorgan.
VoG was lost by a mile last year. The incumbent Labour AM Jane Hutt seems to have a bit of personal vote though. I suppose Julie Morgan could have some personal vote in Cardiff North. In Gower the incumbent is standing down. A list AM is standing for Labour but she represented another region. So I suppose no personal vote to benefit from.
Anyway I would expect quite close results in those 4 and the outcomes will make a difference between a solid performance for Labour (holding all 4), a disappointing one (2-2) or a very bad showing (losing all 4)
Yes. Hutt needs personal vote to avoid being toast. Cardiff North closer and J Morgan must have a few personals too though that said Cardiff North was a bit of a surprise here last year as the Tory majority went from about 100 to about 2k from memory to much local surprise.
We were positive a 2nd operation was on the cards but unfortunately a more sinister reason for her poor recovery from the first one was lurking.
We are going to have some together time for next couple of months.
Bye for a while
Very sorry to hear that.
I'm sure you're not after my medical two penny's worth, but I don't believe in that sort of gloomy prognosis. I hope that she will walk again and believe it is possible. I always consult Mercola.com in these circumstances for an alternative take.
Just for fun, I peered at the Cardiff and South Wales Central sub-sample in the YouGov (just under 300 respondents), which I assume is coterminous with the South Wales Central list region. Constituency vote share and change since 2011:
LAB - 38% (-12) CON - 21% (-3) PC - 20% (+5) UKIP - 12% (did not contest in 2011) LD - 7% (-4) OTH - 2% (+2%)
Huge health warning as usual for unweighted sub-samples, but it tentatively suggests Labour doing worse than UNS in this region of prior strength (LD too, but less so).
It will be very interesting to see who suffers the most from UKIP entering the constituency races if they're getting anything like 16% nationwide - it looks like it's Labour primarily. Could potentially make a big difference in marginals such as Cardiff Central.
I would agree on Labour being fav to hold Cardiff Central
I would expect them to lose Llanelli to Plaid
The seats Labour hold but lost to Conservatives at 2015 GE are Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Cardiff North and Vale of Glamorgan.
VoG was lost by a mile last year. The incumbent Labour AM Jane Hutt seems to have a bit of personal vote though. I suppose Julie Morgan could have some personal vote in Cardiff North. In Gower the incumbent is standing down. A list AM is standing for Labour but she represented another region. So I suppose no personal vote to benefit from.
Anyway I would expect quite close results in those 4 and the outcomes will make a difference between a solid performance for Labour (holding all 4), a disappointing one (2-2) or a very bad showing (losing all 4)
Yes. Hutt needs personal vote to avoid being toast. Cardiff North closer and J Morgan must have a few personals too though that said Cardiff North was a bit of a surprise here last year as the Tory majority went from about 100 to about 2k from memory to much local surprise.
They had an exceptionally good and popular local candidate I gather, a local councillor with cross-party appeal. Amusingly, many diehard Socialist friends of mine voted for him to make sure he was consoled with a decent second place and were furious when he won by a huge margin. However, they are unlikely to make the same error twice. This will be close.
Anybody wondering what a corbyn government would be like...better start stocking up on bog roll now just in case...could be worth a fortune come 2022...
I would agree on Labour being fav to hold Cardiff Central
I would expect them to lose Llanelli to Plaid
The seats Labour hold but lost to Conservatives at 2015 GE are Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Cardiff North and Vale of Glamorgan.
VoG was lost by a mile last year. The incumbent Labour AM Jane Hutt seems to have a bit of personal vote though. I suppose Julie Morgan could have some personal vote in Cardiff North. In Gower the incumbent is standing down. A list AM is standing for Labour but she represented another region. So I suppose no personal vote to benefit from.
Anyway I would expect quite close results in those 4 and the outcomes will make a difference between a solid performance for Labour (holding all 4), a disappointing one (2-2) or a very bad showing (losing all 4)
Yes. Hutt needs personal vote to avoid being toast. Cardiff North closer and J Morgan must have a few personals too though that said Cardiff North was a bit of a surprise here last year as the Tory majority went from about 100 to about 2k from memory to much local surprise.
Yes. Not aware of any major demographic change and most of the students live in Central and West, the former I suspect sealing the Lib's fate in Central.
Anybody wondering what a corbyn government would be like...better start stocking up on bog roll now just in case...could be worth a fortune come 2022...
Use fivers - they'll be worth about three Venezualan Bolivars by then
Smart work from the UKIP candidate Sam Gould in Caerphilly.
His leaflet is all about the new hospital in Ystrad Mynach (the huge, unbelievably slick-looking one by my house, which Labour talked-up for years.... with no doctors and no A&E in it. An enormous white elephant). Residents of the borough have been tamping about the loss of an A&E outlet for years and Gould has gone big on his policy to bring a brand new A&E Dept to the hospital.
It's probably all bullshit but it's smart politics from the young man. I can guarantee it will win him votes.
On a wider issue in the Valleys it is still depressingly old Labour through and through (the old red rosette on a monkey mentality). The older generation still have a tight grip on mindsets here. Support for the Tories is not tolerated. Social media support for even the most crazy left wing theories is applauded by the same intimidating crowd.
I suspect only a minority of folk subscribe tor even understand the old socialist views, but the hardcore lefties make up a big majority of the people who will vote..I bet fewer than 50% of people under the age of 35 even know there are elections tomorrow; politics round here is not particularly high on the agenda for most people.
But the A&E angle for UKIP will turn a few heads. Even my wife commented on the leaflet.
Anybody wondering what a corbyn government would be like...better start stocking up on bog roll now just in case...could be worth a fortune come 2022...
If memory serves we had runs (sorry) on bog-rolls, sugar, and salt under Thatcher. To be fair to her, however, I must also recall that the last case didn't amount to much after she pointed out that this country on its own has plenty of salt.
FPT - The election in Wales Is the forecast I read in the FPT of Labour losing Cardiff Central to the Lib Dems really viable with the LDs forecast to be just 6% across Wales? Last time LDs achieved 10.6% in constituencies and 8% in the regional list so how would the LD vote in Cardiff hold up rather than dramatically drop even faster than Labour's slide?
The Lib Dems are polling three points below their 2011 constituency vote across Wales; Labour are polling nine points lower. Therefore, projecting using UNS, the LibDems would take Cardiff Central [edit], which Labour won by just 38 votes over the Lib Dems in 2011.
Does that work though? Are there enough votes to lose elsewhere to allow the Lib Dem vote to remain high enough in the target seats?
Rather than looking at uniform swing, if we look at uniform loss we get:
Lab where on 42%, and now on 33% so for every 100 votes they did get, they should get 78.6 votes this time.
Lib Dem where on 11% and now on 8% so for every 100 votes they did get, they should get 72.7 votes this time.
So on that analysis it will be close, and locale factors are likely to be decisive, but Lab still projected to hold Cardiff Central.
I'm going to be at the count for the Wiltshire PCC election, and we were told to expect a result around 0400 - we hope that was just a worse scenario though.
Anybody wondering what a corbyn government would be like...better start stocking up on bog roll now just in case...could be worth a fortune come 2022...
Use fivers - they'll be worth about three Venezualan Bolivars by then
Apparently inflation is 720% and expected to reach over 2000% next year
Of course for the vast majority of Chavez's tenure the economic conditions in Venezuela were far better than in the preceding period under the neoliberals, where inflation also reached astronomical levels, but don't let facts get in the way of a good PB Tory rant.
Thank you to the person who posted this Wales poll. It tends to confirm earlier polling. Some caveats to apply:
Another question should hang over Brecon and Radnor although that isn't mentioned. This seat is gradually trending right and Kirsty Williams is going to be under some pressure. If she loses however the Yellows should take a list seat there at probably Plaid's expense.
I share others' doubts about Cardiff Central. Given the profile of the seat and the current state of politics. I think if any party might suddenly leap into contention there it's not the Yellows but the Greens. There is however no sign of that in this poll.
The most depressing part is the last. People in large parts of Wales would, yes, vote for Jez as they see him however wrongly as a proper Socialist who's on their side. What will depress the Labour vote is 17 years in power, a desperate talent shortage, chronic mismanagement of the national economy and imploding public services. But because of the way these votes fall, they will still lead a Labour/Plaid coalition as no other options are on the table. If bets are still being offered on that, it should be free money.
That would leave opportunities for a sensible, moderate, well-led Conservative party to exploit and rise. Such a party does not exist and it is hard to see Labour being removed from office for the foreseeable future as a result.
God help Wales.
Wouldn't a Labour minority be an option too? After all, Plaid don't have to do a comprehensive deal - they could work on a vote-by-vote basis.
On those figures, I think they're just too far short. If it was 29, it might be managed.
Effectively they would be 26 to 32. That's the equivalent of about 60 seats short at Westminster given the relative sizes of the two (I realise that's not strictly comparable)! They need to close that gap and they will also quite simply need new ministers to come in and take over from the duds Jones is trying to manage.
Plaid might be foolish to take it, but Leanne Wood is a Socialist, a Valleys girl and possessed of the political acumen of a daffodil. I think she'll accept a tie-up.
I suspect you're right but all the same, it'd be a really bad political error. Plaid would have far more power on the opposition benches. Labour in Ireland made much the same mistake in 2011. They could have become the official opposition and forced a weak Fine Gail to make deal after deal with all and sundry, condemning Fianna Fail to the obscurity of a secondary opposition party (or - lol - junior government party to GF!), and riding the tide of opposition. Instead they became the whipping boys and lost over three-quarters of their seats in 2016.
Anybody wondering what a corbyn government would be like...better start stocking up on bog roll now just in case...could be worth a fortune come 2022...
Use fivers - they'll be worth about three Venezualan Bolivars by then
Apparently inflation is 720% and expected to reach over 2000% next year
Of course for the vast majority of Chavez's tenure the economic conditions in Venezuela were far better than in the preceding period under the neoliberals, where inflation also reached astronomical levels, but don't let facts get in the way of a good PB Tory rant.
Of course. When the evil capitalists paid good money for oil, socialism worked. Now that the evil capitalists are no longer subsidising the ransacking of Venezuela's private sector, oopsie socialism fail.
Of course for the vast majority of Chavez's tenure the economic conditions in Venezuela were far better than in the preceding period under the neoliberals, where inflation also reached astronomical levels, but don't let facts get in the way of a good PB Tory rant.
I don't know the situation there well, but it looks bloody awful, and shouldn't a good government be able to prepare itself to manage the bad times, not just do well in the good times?
Undefined discussion subject.
Comments
Even Comical Ali would be embarrassed at Milne's spin.
Please tell me the audio of this is released.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=0
Is the forecast I read in the FPT of Labour losing Cardiff Central to the Lib Dems really viable with the LDs forecast to be just 6% across Wales? Last time LDs achieved 10.6% in constituencies and 8% in the regional list so how would the LD vote in Cardiff hold up rather than dramatically drop even faster than Labour's slide?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36205411
Apparently Mrs BJ will never walk more than a few paces ever again.
The spine operation hasn't been able to restore her mobility and there is nothing further that can be done from a surgery point of view.
Now passed on to a Neurologist as MS is suspected as well.
Taking a few months break from PB
From 2015 article..
Instead, web users landing at tedcruz.com see only two phrases: “Support President Obama” and “Immigration Reform Now!”
http://time.com/3755680/ted-cruz-domain-name-tedcruz-com/
Apparently Ted Cruz (dot com) is a real estate guy in Arizona.
Prediction for what it's worth: labour by more than 38 but less than 5k.
We were positive a 2nd operation was on the cards but unfortunately a more sinister reason for her poor recovery from the first one was lurking.
We are going to have some together time for next couple of months.
Bye for a while
Constituency
LAB - 33% (-9)
CON - 21% (-4)
PC - 19% (-)
UKIP - 16% (did not contest constituencies in 2011)
LD - 8% (-3)
GRN - 2% (+2)
OTH - 2% (-1)
Regional list
LAB - 31% (-6)
CON - 20% (-3)
PC - 20% (+2)
UKIP - 16% (+11)
LD - 6% (-2)
GRN - 4% (+1)
OTH - 4% (-3)
Journalist 5 – “Can I change the subject”
Milne will certainly have his work cut out, Jeremy is not particularly bright or quick on his feet.
Sorry to hear the news concerning your good lady, hope she gets the best possible treatment.
https://www.tedcruz.org/thank-cruz-crew/
Uniform swings don't work. Therefore treat UKIP figures with caution. The areas I expect them to do well are Clwyd as was and the south east. I will be surprised if they take list seats in Mid/West Wales, although you never know. My estimate is about 5 seats. The big unknown is the Western Valleys up to Port Talbot and Swansea. It is just possible although not likely anti-European sentiment might make a sudden surge there.
Another question should hang over Brecon and Radnor although that isn't mentioned. This seat is gradually trending right and Kirsty Williams is going to be under some pressure. If she loses however the Yellows should take a list seat there at probably Plaid's expense.
I share others' doubts about Cardiff Central. Given the profile of the seat and the current state of politics. I think if any party might suddenly leap into contention there it's not the Yellows but the Greens. There is however no sign of that in this poll.
The most depressing part is the last. People in large parts of Wales would, yes, vote for Jez as they see him however wrongly as a proper Socialist who's on their side. What will depress the Labour vote is 17 years in power, a desperate talent shortage, chronic mismanagement of the national economy and imploding public services. But because of the way these votes fall, they will still lead a Labour/Plaid coalition as no other options are on the table. If bets are still being offered on that, it should be free money.
That would leave opportunities for a sensible, moderate, well-led Conservative party to exploit and rise. Such a party does not exist and it is hard to see Labour being removed from office for the foreseeable future as a result.
God help Wales.
Will the LDs therefore just have one seat? With Kirsty as a Leader with no troops? Or is even Kirsty under threat? A year ago the incumbent LD MP dropped from 46% to 28% and lost to a Conservative. Kirsty got 43% last time in 2011.
Corbyn, by contrast, has neither advantage but does still have the membership more or less in thrall to his legend and ignoring little things like real life and common sense.
Can't see the greens making a breakthrough in C Central they are invisible ( despite its university seat profile). Agree too about Brecon: it's getting posher up there so K Williams is not a shoo in I think. Tory leader is a bit "meh", but Labour, Carwyn aside, a bit crap too ( even if they have had the boys to post guards on Offa's dike so to speak to make sure Corbyn doesn't sneak over and open his mouth). UKIP have been an utter utter shambles in their desire to get at the trough via the helpful Welsh list system but I agree P Talbot ain't playing well for the EU.
All in all it ain't pretty now and what's worse is we will probably end up Labour/Plaid unless we sneak a Labour/Lib by about a seat.
http://peterblack.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/how-safe-is-our-personal-data.html
Tuesday, May 03, 2016 The challenge of getting onto the housing ladder
Monday, May 02, 2016 Welcome move on restaurant tipping
Sunday, May 01, 2016 New technology I will not touch with a barge pole
Saturday, April 30, 2016 Has Labour's anti-semitism row put Corbyn's leadership in jeopardy?
Wednesday, April 27, 2016 Why Theresa May is wrong to want to quit the European Court on Human Rights
So sorry to hear that @bigjohnowls
Effectively they would be 26 to 32. That's the equivalent of about 60 seats short at Westminster given the relative sizes of the two (I realise that's not strictly comparable)! They need to close that gap and they will also quite simply need new ministers to come in and take over from the duds Jones is trying to manage.
Plaid might be foolish to take it, but Leanne Wood is a Socialist, a Valleys girl and possessed of the political acumen of a daffodil. I think she'll accept a tie-up.
I would expect them to lose Llanelli to Plaid
The seats Labour hold but lost to Conservatives at 2015 GE are Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Cardiff North and Vale of Glamorgan.
VoG was lost by a mile last year. The incumbent Labour AM Jane Hutt seems to have a bit of personal vote though.
I suppose Julie Morgan could have some personal vote in Cardiff North.
In Gower the incumbent is standing down. A list AM is standing for Labour but she represented another region. So I suppose no personal vote to benefit from.
Anyway I would expect quite close results in those 4 and the outcomes will make a difference between a solid performance for Labour (holding all 4), a disappointing one (2-2) or a very bad showing (losing all 4)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=beCYGm1vMJ0
I tried to follow as much as possible though. And I couldn't miss the election night. Thankfully the work deadline I had was for last Friday. Therefore I can stay up all night on Thursday and sleep on Friday in between night and afternoon counts.
I'm sure you're not after my medical two penny's worth, but I don't believe in that sort of gloomy prognosis. I hope that she will walk again and believe it is possible. I always consult Mercola.com in these circumstances for an alternative take.
Enjoy your time with your wife.
LAB - 38% (-12)
CON - 21% (-3)
PC - 20% (+5)
UKIP - 12% (did not contest in 2011)
LD - 7% (-4)
OTH - 2% (+2%)
Huge health warning as usual for unweighted sub-samples, but it tentatively suggests Labour doing worse than UNS in this region of prior strength (LD too, but less so).
It will be very interesting to see who suffers the most from UKIP entering the constituency races if they're getting anything like 16% nationwide - it looks like it's Labour primarily. Could potentially make a big difference in marginals such as Cardiff Central.
'I see another one of Jezza's dodgy mates had just been banged up for supporting terrorism...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36205411'
What pathetic sentences.
Best wishes to you both.
His leaflet is all about the new hospital in Ystrad Mynach (the huge, unbelievably slick-looking one by my house, which Labour talked-up for years.... with no doctors and no A&E in it. An enormous white elephant). Residents of the borough have been tamping about the loss of an A&E outlet for years and Gould has gone big on his policy to bring a brand new A&E Dept to the hospital.
It's probably all bullshit but it's smart politics from the young man. I can guarantee it will win him votes.
On a wider issue in the Valleys it is still depressingly old Labour through and through (the old red rosette on a monkey mentality). The older generation still have a tight grip on mindsets here. Support for the Tories is not tolerated. Social media support for even the most crazy left wing theories is applauded by the same intimidating crowd.
I suspect only a minority of folk subscribe tor even understand the old socialist views, but the hardcore lefties make up a big majority of the people who will vote..I bet fewer than 50% of people under the age of 35 even know there are elections tomorrow; politics round here is not particularly high on the agenda for most people.
But the A&E angle for UKIP will turn a few heads. Even my wife commented on the leaflet.
Lab where on 42%, and now on 33% so for every 100 votes they did get, they should get 78.6 votes this time.
Lib Dem where on 11% and now on 8% so for every 100 votes they did get, they should get 72.7 votes this time.
So on that analysis it will be close, and locale factors are likely to be decisive, but Lab still projected to hold Cardiff Central.
'Bad news for me today.
Apparently Mrs BJ will never walk more than a few paces ever again.
The spine operation hasn't been able to restore her mobility and there is nothing further that can be done from a surgery point of view.
Now passed on to a Neurologist as MS is suspected as well.
Taking a few months break from PB'
Sorry to hear your awful news.
Trinity Mirror’s New Day to close on Friday - exclusive from @MrSteerpike https://t.co/LZHThR755S
A whole two months
Surprised they last 2 months tbh.
When the evil capitalists paid good money for oil, socialism worked.
Now that the evil capitalists are no longer subsidising the ransacking of Venezuela's private sector, oopsie socialism fail.