Suffering from insomnia I actually got up and watched it last night. It was the first US Presidential debate that I have ever watched and wasn't that impressed by either candidate. As ever it was instructive about the differences between the UK and the US. Most spectacularly this was shown when Hillary said something along the lines of "we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences." Can you imagine a UK politician wanting to be PM saying that?!
I think Mike's right to focus on the tax returns and, as was suggested on here, Hillary went on Trump's history of not paying people. I think that hurts Trump, a lot. That said, I did think Trump landed a few blows on Clinton, especially on NAFTA.
BTW, do we need a new England Manager?
Dave said that we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences.
For me the second biggest tragedy of Brexit is that Michael Gove is no longer Justice Secretary and going to implement those excellent prison and sentencing reforms he was planning.
I'd agree with that (& I think he was a pretty awful Education Secretary). His replacement at Justice appears hopeless.
As far as the US is concerned, it ought to be remembered that they incarcerate around four times as many people as we (and most of the rest of the world) do, as a percentage of population.
May's clearout post-Brexit was predicated on the assumption of a much larger talent pool than the Tory party possesses. It could well prove her biggest mistake along with the unnecessary bitch-slapping of Osborne.
I think so. I thought Trump's play for black voters again was also interesting. He's clearly following a line here. It keeps coming up.
Yes, calling them "those people" during the debate was indeed an interesting play.
There is clearly a market for xenophobic demagoguery in the US, as Trump has shown - but when you include around a third of your own population as the 'other', it's not a winning proposition.
There was a rather Boris-like narrative around a while back about Trump, that he is really an extremely clever guy using his buffoonish/boorish character as a front to generate populist appeal. After the debate I don't buy this, at all.
My take without actually watching is that Donald Trump, who is generally a better media operator than Hillary Clinton, failed to get any advantage from the debate. However, Hillary Clinton doesn't want to go into a debate largely about her opponent with their polls neck and neck.
As your avatar might say, oooohhhhhhhh yyyeeeeessssss!!
"democracy" as a word is being used by Corbyn and Co as a form of code. He uses it all the time. It means let the entryists do what they will. It's quite chilling. Like the German Democratic Republic.
My admiration for those PBers capable of of staying up to watch two truly dire candidates.
I really cant summon up any enthusiasm for WH16
I agree. Normally the paralysis of the American political system is a huge drawback. With these two candidates it is a relief. Neither will be as terrible as they would be if they were unimpeded.
Republicans have the House, and if Trump wins then they will likely have held the Senate too. So Trump may not be too limited.
You think the republican party and Trump agree on much? Interesting.
There was a rather Boris-like narrative around a while back about Trump, that he is really an extremely clever guy using his buffoonish/boorish character as a front to generate populist appeal. After the debate I don't buy this, at all.
So is the country, until we get an actual opposition. Nothing particularly against them, but we really shouldn't be relying on the SNP to oppose the government in an orderly manner.
Suffering from insomnia I actually got up and watched it last night. It was the first US Presidential debate that I have ever watched and wasn't that impressed by either candidate. As ever it was instructive about the differences between the UK and the US. Most spectacularly this was shown when Hillary said something along the lines of "we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences." Can you imagine a UK politician wanting to be PM saying that?!
I think Mike's right to focus on the tax returns and, as was suggested on here, Hillary went on Trump's history of not paying people. I think that hurts Trump, a lot. That said, I did think Trump landed a few blows on Clinton, especially on NAFTA.
BTW, do we need a new England Manager?
No, the best England managers are often dodgy see Terry Venables too
As your avatar might say, oooohhhhhhhh yyyeeeeessssss!!
"democracy" as a word is being used by Corbyn and Co as a form of code. He uses it all the time. It means let the entryists do what they will. It's quite chilling. Like the German Democratic Republic.
Yes, their language does seem to be that of Orwellian Doublespeak.
A bit like their attitude to the threats and violence, the mysoginism and antisemitism.
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
Are any of the US polls what we would accept in the UK, in terms of statistical accuracy and demographic weighting?
Watching from afar, the networks seem way more interested in the fastest polls, than the most accurate.
The sample sizes are tiny, we don't see the cross tabs so much and I mistrust all of them for bias.
Trends are the only thing at all worth watching. I've got to the point where I simply don't believe a word the media says when it comes to politics or anything with a tangential political angle. They're all in the same tombola bin as random websites with big readerships.
When I've watched events live myself - and seen them edited to push a certain narrative even by Sky - I'm just nah.
Hillary probably won and will get a small boost in the polls but it remains close. Even CNN has Hillary winning by a smaller margin than Romney did in the first 2012 debate and still 2 more debates to come
I think so. I thought Trump's play for black voters again was also interesting. He's clearly following a line here. It keeps coming up.
He is wasting his time there. College educated whites and white females are the voters who will decide this.
How did Gennifer Flowers get on? Did she give the Donald tips on big hair?
Disagree. If the vote is neck and neck, every group will decide it. Trump only has to persuade a small proportion of blacks to switch to him. Or more realistically not see him as the Devil Incarnate so they are less motivated to turn out to vote for Clinton
As your avatar might say, oooohhhhhhhh yyyeeeeessssss!!
"democracy" as a word is being used by Corbyn and Co as a form of code. He uses it all the time. It means let the entryists do what they will. It's quite chilling. Like the German Democratic Republic.
Yes, their language does seem to be that of Orwellian Doublespeak.
A bit like their attitude to the threats and violence, the mysoginism and antisemitism.
There is no anti-semitism. There has been a report and it proves it. There is only stuff made up by Dan Hodges, who is a capitalist running dog etc etc.
Suffering from insomnia I actually got up and watched it last night. It was the first US Presidential debate that I have ever watched and wasn't that impressed by either candidate. As ever it was instructive about the differences between the UK and the US. Most spectacularly this was shown when Hillary said something along the lines of "we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences." Can you imagine a UK politician wanting to be PM saying that?!
I think Mike's right to focus on the tax returns and, as was suggested on here, Hillary went on Trump's history of not paying people. I think that hurts Trump, a lot. That said, I did think Trump landed a few blows on Clinton, especially on NAFTA.
BTW, do we need a new England Manager?
Dave said that we're sending too many people to prison for minor offences.
For me the second biggest tragedy of Brexit is that Michael Gove is no longer Justice Secretary and going to implement those excellent prison and sentencing reforms he was planning.
I'd agree with that (& I think he was a pretty awful Education Secretary). His replacement at Justice appears hopeless.
As far as the US is concerned, it ought to be remembered that they incarcerate around four times as many people as we (and most of the rest of the world) do, as a percentage of population.
May's clearout post-Brexit was predicated on the assumption of a much larger talent pool than the Tory party possesses. It could well prove her biggest mistake along with the unnecessary bitch-slapping of Osborne.
There's plenty of talent in the Tory Party but very few who tick all the post-Brexit boxes while also having no form with La May herself.
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
well thats voodo twitter polls for you. the network focus groups all say clinton
I haven't and wont watch the debates between an incompetent harridan and a posturing charlatan.
But the voodoo polls kept going for Brexit while the networks kept saying Remain.
Whether history repeats we don't know yet.
The actual flipping polls said Leave. People are acting like every fucking poll had a 20 point Remain lead. By this stage of Brexit the last month of polls were split almost 50/50 between leave and remain leads.
My admiration for those PBers capable of of staying up to watch two truly dire candidates.
I really cant summon up any enthusiasm for WH16
I agree. Normally the paralysis of the American political system is a huge drawback. With these two candidates it is a relief. Neither will be as terrible as they would be if they were unimpeded.
Republicans have the House, and if Trump wins then they will likely have held the Senate too. So Trump may not be too limited.
You think the republican party and Trump agree on much? Interesting.
Bush Snr is voting for Hillary, though if she wins she likely faces a GOP Congress
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
well thats voodo twitter polls for you. the network focus groups all say clinton
I haven't and wont watch the debates between an incompetent harridan and a posturing charlatan.
But the voodoo polls kept going for Brexit while the networks kept saying Remain.
Whether history repeats we don't know yet.
The actual flipping polls said Leave. People are acting like every fucking poll had a 20 point Remain lead. By this stage of Brexit the last month of polls were split almost 50/50 between leave and remain leads.
There are now a number of polls showing Trump leads and most of the final polls had Remain ahead
My take without actually watching is that Donald Trump, who is generally a better media operator than Hillary Clinton, failed to get any advantage from the debate. However, Hillary Clinton doesn't want to go into a debate largely about her opponent with their polls neck and neck.
Watch the debate, it was heavily characterised by clown shoes.
I think so. I thought Trump's play for black voters again was also interesting. He's clearly following a line here. It keeps coming up.
He is wasting his time there. College educated whites and white females are the voters who will decide this.
How did Gennifer Flowers get on? Did she give the Donald tips on big hair?
Disagree. If the vote is neck and neck, every group will decide it. Trump only has to persuade a small proportion of blacks to switch to him. Or more realistically not see him as the Devil Incarnate so they are less motivated to turn out to vote for Clinton
again the birtherism, stop and search and white nationalist support of him will stop this happening
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
Are any of the US polls what we would accept in the UK, in terms of statistical accuracy and demographic weighting?
Watching from afar, the networks seem way more interested in the fastest polls, than the most accurate.
Frank LuntzVerified account @FrankLuntz Who won tonite's debate? In my focus group, 6 people said Trump and 16 said Clinton. #DebateNight
A focus group captures attitudes and reactions to specific questions and are Undecideds for obvious reasons - polls capture mass public opinion.
Two entirely different things.
You are right. I wasn't trying to say they were equivalent, just passing Luntz stuff along as I catch up this morning. Personally, I am only interested in good quality state polls in the key states. We'll have to wait a few days.
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
well thats voodo twitter polls for you. the network focus groups all say clinton
I haven't and wont watch the debates between an incompetent harridan and a posturing charlatan.
But the voodoo polls kept going for Brexit while the networks kept saying Remain.
Whether history repeats we don't know yet.
The actual flipping polls said Leave. People are acting like every fucking poll had a 20 point Remain lead. By this stage of Brexit the last month of polls were split almost 50/50 between leave and remain leads.
Remember that we were told be 'experts' that Leave needed to be 7% ahead in the final polls to be level in the actual vote.
We were also told by 'experts' that phone polls (which were better for Remain ) were the 'gold standard'.
And we were told that the City were conducting exit polls in order to make money.
Wow, the Telegraph football corruption investigation is ten months' work, and will be running all week. The Allardyce story is just the tip of the iceberg.
Great to see some old fashioned investigative journalism back in the papers, well done the Telegraph!
Mr. Sandpit, I would guess the EU will do it slyly.
Take 'volunteered' companies, battalions, tanks, ships and planes from national armies that are seconded to the EU Army by national governments. Nobody signs up for the EU Army. They sign up for the national army then get sent to do Brussels' bidding.
That's how I'd do it, if I were a short-sighted, historically ignorant, devious bureaucrat with contempt for democracy.
Mr. Richard, to be fair, the City did have its own exit polls. It's just that they were rubbish, (we didn't have an official exit poll because it was impossible to try and get samples right, but the City boys thought they knew better).
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
Are any of the US polls what we would accept in the UK, in terms of statistical accuracy and demographic weighting?
Watching from afar, the networks seem way more interested in the fastest polls, than the most accurate.
Frank LuntzVerified account @FrankLuntz Who won tonite's debate? In my focus group, 6 people said Trump and 16 said Clinton. #DebateNight
A focus group captures attitudes and reactions to specific questions and are Undecideds for obvious reasons - polls capture mass public opinion.
Two entirely different things.
You are right. I wasn't trying to say they were equivalent, just passing Luntz stuff along as I catch up this morning. Personally, I am only interested in good quality state polls in the key states. We'll have to wait a few days.
No probs - I was just making the distinction for those unfamiliar with the difference.
I like Luntz - he's funny. What we learn from him - who knows?! Good soundbites though.
ARGH - Hillary talking about her book and website on Sky replay. I'd forgotten about that horror plugging.
Wow, the Telegraph football corruption investigation is ten months' work, and will be running all week. The Allardyce story is just the tip of the iceberg.
Great to see some old fashioned investigative journalism back in the papers, well done the Telegraph!
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
Are any of the US polls what we would accept in the UK, in terms of statistical accuracy and demographic weighting?
Watching from afar, the networks seem way more interested in the fastest polls, than the most accurate.
Frank LuntzVerified account @FrankLuntz Who won tonite's debate? In my focus group, 6 people said Trump and 16 said Clinton. #DebateNight
A focus group captures attitudes and reactions to specific questions and are Undecideds for obvious reasons - polls capture mass public opinion.
Two entirely different things.
You are right. I wasn't trying to say they were equivalent, just passing Luntz stuff along as I catch up this morning. Personally, I am only interested in good quality state polls in the key states. We'll have to wait a few days.
No probs - I was just making the distinction for those unfamiliar with the difference.
I like Luntz - he's funny. What we learn from him - who knows?! Good soundbites though.
ARGH - Hillary talking about her book and website on Sky replay. I'd forgotten about that horror plugging.
Way, way back Luntz spotted Cameron before anyone else, so he must have something when he is doing those focus groups with the twiddly little dials.
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
well thats voodo twitter polls for you. the network focus groups all say clinton
I haven't and wont watch the debates between an incompetent harridan and a posturing charlatan.
But the voodoo polls kept going for Brexit while the networks kept saying Remain.
Whether history repeats we don't know yet.
The actual flipping polls said Leave. People are acting like every fucking poll had a 20 point Remain lead. By this stage of Brexit the last month of polls were split almost 50/50 between leave and remain leads.
Precisely. The Brexiteers are recasting their pre vote despair that maybe 3 out of every 5 polls wasn't great for Leave into 'the polls were all wrong!'
Wow, the Telegraph football corruption investigation is ten months' work, and will be running all week. The Allardyce story is just the tip of the iceberg.
Great to see some old fashioned investigative journalism back in the papers, well done the Telegraph!
I see Germany has said the UK must drop opposition to the EU Army if we want good relations with them. Verpiss dich, I think is the correct term.
Anyone asked the France yet? LePen will be a thundering 'non'; Sarkozy a quieter 'non'.
France and Germany are the main drivers for an EU army that also gets support from the Americans. Poland may be more of an issue
The DC establishment are absolutely seething at the idea of an EU Army. I don't know where you get this idea that they would support it. Must come from your decidedly middle ranking intelligence.
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
well thats voodo twitter polls for you. the network focus groups all say clinton
I haven't and wont watch the debates between an incompetent harridan and a posturing charlatan.
But the voodoo polls kept going for Brexit while the networks kept saying Remain.
Whether history repeats we don't know yet.
The actual flipping polls said Leave. People are acting like every fucking poll had a 20 point Remain lead. By this stage of Brexit the last month of polls were split almost 50/50 between leave and remain leads.
Remember that we were told be 'experts' that Leave needed to be 7% ahead in the final polls to be level in the actual vote.
We were also told by 'experts' that phone polls (which were better for Remain ) were the 'gold standard'.
And we were told that the City were conducting exit polls in order to make money.
And then it was proven that the Establishment/liberals had no experts in the Not On Your Team area. Or the lives of those who didn't do pretty nicely thankyou.
It's the most entertaining bit of recent politics.
Mr. Richard, to be fair, the City did have its own exit polls. It's just that they were rubbish, (we didn't have an official exit poll because it was impossible to try and get samples right, but the City boys thought they knew better).
Arron Banks seemed to have some sort of exit poll. And an accurate one as well.
I see Germany has said the UK must drop opposition to the EU Army if we want good relations with them. Verpiss dich, I think is the correct term.
Anyone asked the France yet? LePen will be a thundering 'non'; Sarkozy a quieter 'non'.
France and Germany are the main drivers for an EU army that also gets support from the Americans. Poland may be more of an issue
The DC establishment are absolutely seething at the idea of an EU Army. I don't know where you get this idea that they would support it. Must come from your decidedly middle ranking intelligence.
Mr. Richard, maybe, but it's worth noting with the number flying about (at least three, I think, for the City, one for Remain and Banks'), you'd expect one of them to be right simply by chance
Mr. 43, if it's just NATO, but smaller and weaker, what's the point?
The EU Army is just extended EU integration from the monetary to the military.
Listening to the debate on the radio, Mike is right, as a debate Clinton crushed it, nailed it, whatever. She was very, very good, much better than I expected and Trump was woeful, much worse than I expected.
That said, Trump is very dangerous. His major strength is his negativity. He hit Clinton repeatedly with the 30 years in politics and what "the fuck have you done apart from making things worse?", and when he was a slagging off contemporary America, third word airports, industrial wastelands, crime ridden streets- they were solid jabs, all landing with ease. He plays nihilism better than anyone.
The fact that he hasn't got one policy apart from huge tax cuts is neither here nor there. And Hillary is unlikeable.
Every single voodoo twitter poll has it for Trump.
well thats voodo twitter polls for you. the network focus groups all say clinton
I haven't and wont watch the debates between an incompetent harridan and a posturing charlatan.
But the voodoo polls kept going for Brexit while the networks kept saying Remain.
Whether history repeats we don't know yet.
The actual flipping polls said Leave. People are acting like every fucking poll had a 20 point Remain lead. By this stage of Brexit the last month of polls were split almost 50/50 between leave and remain leads.
Precisely. The Brexiteers are recasting their pre vote despair that maybe 3 out of every 5 polls wasn't great for Leave into 'the polls were all wrong!'
One problem was that polling companies didn't believe their own figures, so kept adjusting them to favour Remain.
Wow, the Telegraph football corruption investigation is ten months' work, and will be running all week. The Allardyce story is just the tip of the iceberg.
Great to see some old fashioned investigative journalism back in the papers, well done the Telegraph!
Agree. But might take pressure of Allardyce if seen that they are all at it.
True. Apparently they've two other "well-known" managers also agreeing to work for their fictitious company, as well as managers taking backhanders in transfer deals, players betting on their own matches etc.
Looks like the DT had an insider at a Premier League club working with them on the sting.
The ppppolls breakdown is vee interesting. It is continuing the trend of finding anomalously high Identifies Democrat samples - this could be an indication of shy trumpers or it could be an indication of Trump repelling Republicans. Amongst Independents Clinton won by +8.
The handle nuclear weapons and ready to be president figures have got to be damaging for Trump.
Mr. Richard, maybe, but it's worth noting with the number flying about (at least three, I think, for the City, one for Remain and Banks'), you'd expect one of them to be right simply by chance
Mr. 43, if it's just NATO, but smaller and weaker, what's the point?
The EU Army is just extended EU integration from the monetary to the military.
One justification for an EU army is that it enables EU States to cut military expenditure, reducing military capability further. Rather like the Western Roman army in the 5th century, it looks strong on paper, while being ineffective in reality.
Mr. Richard, maybe, but it's worth noting with the number flying about (at least three, I think, for the City, one for Remain and Banks'), you'd expect one of them to be right simply by chance
Mr. 43, if it's just NATO, but smaller and weaker, what's the point?
The EU Army is just extended EU integration from the monetary to the military.
Part of the point would be that you can hide fiscal transfers behind it. Right-leaning voters in Germany won't vote to send money to Greece, but they might be prepared vote to build a military force to protect the Europe's south-eastern borders against all kinds of aggressors and undesirables.
Mr. Richard, maybe, but it's worth noting with the number flying about (at least three, I think, for the City, one for Remain and Banks'), you'd expect one of them to be right simply by chance
Certainly there's an element of chance involved even if the poll is conducted competently.
Whether the exit poll which involved Primrose Hill (borders) was competently conducted is to be doubted.
My admiration for those PBers capable of of staying up to watch two truly dire candidates.
I really cant summon up any enthusiasm for WH16
I agree. Normally the paralysis of the American political system is a huge drawback. With these two candidates it is a relief. Neither will be as terrible as they would be if they were unimpeded.
Republicans have the House, and if Trump wins then they will likely have held the Senate too. So Trump may not be too limited.
You think the republican party and Trump agree on much? Interesting.
Mr. Richard, to be fair, the City did have its own exit polls. It's just that they were rubbish, (we didn't have an official exit poll because it was impossible to try and get samples right, but the City boys thought they knew better).
Arron Banks seemed to have some sort of exit poll. And an accurate one as well.
But then he's not an 'expert'.
Boris and Farage both thought they'd lost at first.
Listening to the debate on the radio, Mike is right, as a debate Clinton crushed it, nailed it, whatever. She was very, very good, much better than I expected and Trump was woeful, much worse than I expected.
That said, Trump is very dangerous. His major strength is his negativity. He hit Clinton repeatedly with the 30 years in politics and what "the fuck have you done apart from making things worse?", and when he was a slagging off contemporary America, third word airports, industrial wastelands, crime ridden streets- they were solid jabs, all landing with ease. He plays nihilism better than anyone.
The fact that he hasn't got one policy apart from huge tax cuts is neither here nor there. And Hillary is unlikeable.
I think there is value today on betfair
Interesting perspective from the radio listener, as opposed to the TV viewer.
It was a scrappy bout, with a couple of jabs from either side but neither fighter knocked down.
Trump is better value today than he was yesterday, given that the prices have changed but neither side got a decisive win.
My admiration for those PBers capable of of staying up to watch two truly dire candidates.
I really cant summon up any enthusiasm for WH16
I agree. Normally the paralysis of the American political system is a huge drawback. With these two candidates it is a relief. Neither will be as terrible as they would be if they were unimpeded.
Republicans have the House, and if Trump wins then they will likely have held the Senate too. So Trump may not be too limited.
You think the republican party and Trump agree on much? Interesting.
Mr. Richard, to be fair, the City did have its own exit polls. It's just that they were rubbish, (we didn't have an official exit poll because it was impossible to try and get samples right, but the City boys thought they knew better).
Arron Banks seemed to have some sort of exit poll. And an accurate one as well.
But then he's not an 'expert'.
Boris and Farage both thought they'd lost at first.
They're both flip floppers and almost everyone else was predicting that Remain had won (remember Betfair).
My admiration for those PBers capable of of staying up to watch two truly dire candidates.
I really cant summon up any enthusiasm for WH16
I agree. Normally the paralysis of the American political system is a huge drawback. With these two candidates it is a relief. Neither will be as terrible as they would be if they were unimpeded.
Republicans have the House, and if Trump wins then they will likely have held the Senate too. So Trump may not be too limited.
You think the republican party and Trump agree on much? Interesting.
Mr. Richard, to be fair, the City did have its own exit polls. It's just that they were rubbish, (we didn't have an official exit poll because it was impossible to try and get samples right, but the City boys thought they knew better).
Arron Banks seemed to have some sort of exit poll. And an accurate one as well.
But then he's not an 'expert'.
Boris and Farage both thought they'd lost at first.
They're both flip floppers and almost everyone else was predicting that Remain had won (remember Betfair).
Not going to forget betfair in a hurry, my biggest ever political betting win!
My admiration for those PBers capable of of staying up to watch two truly dire candidates.
I really cant summon up any enthusiasm for WH16
I agree. Normally the paralysis of the American political system is a huge drawback. With these two candidates it is a relief. Neither will be as terrible as they would be if they were unimpeded.
Republicans have the House, and if Trump wins then they will likely have held the Senate too. So Trump may not be too limited.
You think the republican party and Trump agree on much? Interesting.
Of course there would be big disagreements, especially on foreign policy but there is plenty of common ground. Tax cuts for the rich, repealing Obamacare, appointing a right winger to the Supreme Court to make but three.
Mr. Richard, maybe, but it's worth noting with the number flying about (at least three, I think, for the City, one for Remain and Banks'), you'd expect one of them to be right simply by chance
Mr. 43, if it's just NATO, but smaller and weaker, what's the point?
The EU Army is just extended EU integration from the monetary to the military.
There's a feeling in Washington that EU countries freeload off NATO. If this means a more effective EU contribution, they could be OK with that. Also it brings non-NATO countries like Sweden and Finland into the orbit. Hence this declaration:
"We believe that the time has come to give new impetus and new substance to the NATO-EU strategic partnership..."
The EU army would be available to offer fraternal aid to the penthouse apartment owners of London in response to their despairing cries for help on twitter and pbc.
My admiration for those PBers capable of of staying up to watch two truly dire candidates.
I really cant summon up any enthusiasm for WH16
I agree. Normally the paralysis of the American political system is a huge drawback. With these two candidates it is a relief. Neither will be as terrible as they would be if they were unimpeded.
Republicans have the House, and if Trump wins then they will likely have held the Senate too. So Trump may not be too limited.
You think the republican party and Trump agree on much? Interesting.
Mr. Richard, to be fair, the City did have its own exit polls. It's just that they were rubbish, (we didn't have an official exit poll because it was impossible to try and get samples right, but the City boys thought they knew better).
Arron Banks seemed to have some sort of exit poll. And an accurate one as well.
But then he's not an 'expert'.
Boris and Farage both thought they'd lost at first.
They're both flip floppers and almost everyone else was predicting that Remain had won (remember Betfair).
Not going to forget betfair in a hurry, my biggest ever political betting win!
Mine too. With Theresa May as second biggest, within a couple of months of each other.
"My guess is that Trump will learn from what’s happened and be better prepared next time"
I wouldn't bank on that. Hillary did absolutely nothing that couldn't have reasonably been predicted. She didn't have any zinging one-liners and Goddard's description of her as "controlled and methodical" is right. Trump should have been prepared for what came at him; he wasn't.
That suggests either that he doesn't want to prepare or that he's incapable of using such preparation in an organised way. Either way, it suggests he's unlikely to be much better in the other debates. With Obama four years ago, we knew that he could debate effectively and whether through complacence or just an off-day, underperformed; with Trump, we don't know that he can handle a sustained one-to-one over 90 minutes - he never had to during the primaries, mostly working off short bursts of abuse and soundbites on a stage with at least four contenders and for some while, several more.
Trump has not varied his campaigning style much since day one (and nor has he had to really: it's got him a long way and far further than almost all experts expected). He's far from stupid and will know that it didn't go all that well. but he's also vain, egotistical and easily needled. Even if he does prepare better next time, he'll still go off-piste and he'll still pay the price - unless he can score a knockout. And he just might.
Listening to the debate on the radio, Mike is right, as a debate Clinton crushed it, nailed it, whatever. She was very, very good, much better than I expected and Trump was woeful, much worse than I expected.
That said, Trump is very dangerous. His major strength is his negativity. He hit Clinton repeatedly with the 30 years in politics and what "the fuck have you done apart from making things worse?", and when he was a slagging off contemporary America, third word airports, industrial wastelands, crime ridden streets- they were solid jabs, all landing with ease. He plays nihilism better than anyone.
The fact that he hasn't got one policy apart from huge tax cuts is neither here nor there. And Hillary is unlikeable.
I'm tempted to say a 'Party is not for Xmas, it's for life.'
Well done @NickPalmer. It's obviously something he believes in passionately, makes for good policy and a great deal of it can probably be achieved on a cross party basis from opposition.
He's also completely right that Labour need to start talking about what they want to achieve, rather than the internal squabbles that have characterised the party since May 2015.
Comments
How did Gennifer Flowers get on? Did she give the Donald tips on big hair?
There is clearly a market for xenophobic demagoguery in the US, as Trump has shown - but when you include around a third of your own population as the 'other', it's not a winning proposition.
Watching from afar, the networks seem way more interested in the fastest polls, than the most accurate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_V013Qs0evM
Frank LuntzVerified account
@FrankLuntz
Who won tonite's debate?
In my focus group, 6 people said Trump and 16 said Clinton. #DebateNight
I see Germany has said the UK must drop opposition to the EU Army if we want good relations with them. Verpiss dich, I think is the correct term.
But the voodoo polls kept going for Brexit while the networks kept saying Remain.
Whether history repeats we don't know yet.
A bit like their attitude to the threats and violence, the mysoginism and antisemitism.
Trends are the only thing at all worth watching. I've got to the point where I simply don't believe a word the media says when it comes to politics or anything with a tangential political angle. They're all in the same tombola bin as random websites with big readerships.
When I've watched events live myself - and seen them edited to push a certain narrative even by Sky - I'm just nah.
Trump starts really well - and then it's all downhill from there re attitude.
Although are we back to undecideds don't vote?
Two entirely different things.
But does say: "But it wouldn’t be the first time Trump was thought to lose a debate only to see his standing in the polls improve."
More realistically, who on Earth is going to sign up to put themselves in harm's way for Jean-Claude Drunker and his blue and yellow flag?
We were also told by 'experts' that phone polls (which were better for Remain ) were the 'gold standard'.
And we were told that the City were conducting exit polls in order to make money.
Great to see some old fashioned investigative journalism back in the papers, well done the Telegraph!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/26/exclusive-investigation-england-manager-sam-allardyce-for-sale/
Take 'volunteered' companies, battalions, tanks, ships and planes from national armies that are seconded to the EU Army by national governments. Nobody signs up for the EU Army. They sign up for the national army then get sent to do Brussels' bidding.
That's how I'd do it, if I were a short-sighted, historically ignorant, devious bureaucrat with contempt for democracy.
I like Luntz - he's funny. What we learn from him - who knows?! Good soundbites though.
ARGH - Hillary talking about her book and website on Sky replay. I'd forgotten about that horror plugging.
Yet the evidence continues to stack up ...
Edit. It's not an EU army as such, any more than there's a NATO army. It's a coordinated military policy.
It's the most entertaining bit of recent politics.
But then he's not an 'expert'.
Mr. 43, if it's just NATO, but smaller and weaker, what's the point?
The EU Army is just extended EU integration from the monetary to the military.
That said, Trump is very dangerous. His major strength is his negativity. He hit Clinton repeatedly with the 30 years in politics and what "the fuck have you done apart from making things worse?", and when he was a slagging off contemporary America, third word airports, industrial wastelands, crime ridden streets- they were solid jabs, all landing with ease. He plays nihilism better than anyone.
The fact that he hasn't got one policy apart from huge tax cuts is neither here nor there. And Hillary is unlikeable.
I think there is value today on betfair
Looks like the DT had an insider at a Premier League club working with them on the sting.
http://labourlist.org/2016/09/nick-palmer-forget-the-soap-opera-lets-get-back-to-policy-starting-with-animal-welfare/
I'm tempted to say a 'Party is not for Xmas, it's for life.'
She's the mother-in-law from Hell. It's like being stabbed with a fork by someone from 5th Avenue Dinner Party circuit.
The ppppolls breakdown is vee interesting. It is continuing the trend of finding anomalously high Identifies Democrat samples - this could be an indication of shy trumpers or it could be an indication of Trump repelling Republicans. Amongst Independents Clinton won by +8.
The handle nuclear weapons and ready to be president figures have got to be damaging for Trump.
Jess Phillips: my friend came here yesterday and said 'I've only been here three hours and I've heard the word Jew about 40 times'. #Lab16
Whether the exit poll which involved Primrose Hill (borders) was competently conducted is to be doubted.
It was a scrappy bout, with a couple of jabs from either side but neither fighter knocked down.
Trump is better value today than he was yesterday, given that the prices have changed but neither side got a decisive win.
Clinton surrogate or independent comment ?
Trump sniffs - FARC deal in doubt...
"We believe that the time has come to give new impetus and new substance to the NATO-EU strategic partnership..."
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_133163.htm
Kevin Schofield
BREAKING Unite to abstain on package of Labour rule changes being voted on today. Means NEC places for Scotland and Wales will pass.
Also, I don't care whether the Americans are in favour or not.
Commerzbank Extends Losses as CEO Plans Job Cuts, Dividend Halt https://t.co/WV3UgwwyNE
Well worth checking out. Best videogame marketing video I've ever seen, better than prime time comedy.
I wouldn't bank on that. Hillary did absolutely nothing that couldn't have reasonably been predicted. She didn't have any zinging one-liners and Goddard's description of her as "controlled and methodical" is right. Trump should have been prepared for what came at him; he wasn't.
That suggests either that he doesn't want to prepare or that he's incapable of using such preparation in an organised way. Either way, it suggests he's unlikely to be much better in the other debates. With Obama four years ago, we knew that he could debate effectively and whether through complacence or just an off-day, underperformed; with Trump, we don't know that he can handle a sustained one-to-one over 90 minutes - he never had to during the primaries, mostly working off short bursts of abuse and soundbites on a stage with at least four contenders and for some while, several more.
Trump has not varied his campaigning style much since day one (and nor has he had to really: it's got him a long way and far further than almost all experts expected). He's far from stupid and will know that it didn't go all that well. but he's also vain, egotistical and easily needled. Even if he does prepare better next time, he'll still go off-piste and he'll still pay the price - unless he can score a knockout. And he just might.
https://twitter.com/Stewart4Pboro/status/780680936325259264
He's also completely right that Labour need to start talking about what they want to achieve, rather than the internal squabbles that have characterised the party since May 2015.