politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his count

System · October 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his country for his career.

Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his country for his career. Super story by @ShippersUnbound pic.twitter.com/P20Z44xBUh

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Big_G_NorthWales · October 2016

First and Yawn

Paul_Bedfordshire · October 2016

Big_G_NorthWales said:
First and Yawn

Indeed. Goodnight.

ThreeQuidder · October 2016

The Sunday Times admits that Boris's Remain argument was weaker than his Leave argument.

I wouldn't have expected that.

Alistair · October 2016

US Betting Post

I got on Dems in Ohio at Evens. They are now down to 1.39/1.5 on Betfair. I have cashed out as I think it looks like Hilary will win without Ohio.

All my other state bets remain.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2016

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
First and Yawn
Indeed. Goodnight.

We are very close to the same number of posts

IanB2 · October 2016

Sixth like Boris

Scott_P · October 2016

@joeyfjones: It would seem Boris was having both cakes and eating them too. That's a lot of cake.

TheWhiteRabbit · October 2016

Alistair said:
US Betting Post

I got on Dems in Ohio at Evens. They are now down to 1.39/1.5 on Betfair. I have cashed out as I think it looks like Hilary will win without Ohio.

All my other state bets remain.

Hills had 3/1 on the GOP in Ohio which I thought was value. Alas I have forgotten my log in (it's around here somewhere...)

grabcocque · October 2016

TSE mate

Let it go.

Trust me on this,

You'll feel better when you grieve and move on

Trust me

(Also please tell Mike there's no imminent Lib Dem resurgence. Love you bye)

rottenborough · October 2016

Interesting thread. Especially Crosby's advice for Boris to back Brexit once Cameron had ignored his plea for delay. So, Cameron ignored both Osborne and Crosby's advise that the referendum would be a disaster.

MarqueeMark · October 2016

The pb.com story from that article is that Jim Messina thought Andrew Cooper, Cameron's pollster, as "the worst I've ever worked with" for getting his forecasts so wrong.

glw · October 2016

I guess that Sir Ivan Rogers and Tom Scholar won't be getting Christmas cards from Dave.

Alistair · October 2016

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Alistair said:
US Betting Post

I got on Dems in Ohio at Evens. They are now down to 1.39/1.5 on Betfair. I have cashed out as I think it looks like Hilary will win without Ohio.

All my other state bets remain.
Hills had 3/1 on the GOP in Ohio which I thought was value. Alas I have forgotten my log in (it's around here somewhere...)

Yes, I'm considering zeroing out my Dems green to have a free bet on Trump in Ohio. Going tobwaitbfor a bit more early voting data first.

tlg86 · October 2016

MarqueeMark said:
The pb.com story from that article is that Jim Messina thought Andrew Cooper, Cameron's pollster, as "the worst I've ever worked with" for getting his forecasts so wrong.

Mortimer · October 2016

rottenborough said:
Interesting thread. Especially Crosby's advice for Boris to back Brexit once Cameron had ignored his plea for delay. So, Cameron ignored both Osborne and Crosby's advise that the referendum would be a disaster.

Lynton or Rod?

Mortimer · October 2016

tlg86 said:

MarqueeMark said:
The pb.com story from that article is that Jim Messina thought Andrew Cooper, Cameron's pollster, as "the worst I've ever worked with" for getting his forecasts so wrong.

Jim Messina definitely comes off the better of that anecdote...

I'm looking forward to Shipper's book.

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

grabcocque said:
TSE mate

Let it go.

Trust me on this,

You'll feel better when you grieve and move on

Trust me

(Also please tell Mike there's no imminent Lib Dem resurgence. Love you bye)

I have moved on, my morning piece opens with this

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.

glw · October 2016

rottenborough said:
Interesting thread. Especially Crosby's advice for Boris to back Brexit once Cameron had ignored his plea for delay. So, Cameron ignored both Osborne and Crosby's advise that the referendum would be a disaster.

If think most people here couldn't fathom the rush when Dave had until the end of 2017.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

grabcocque said:
TSE mate

Let it go.

Trust me on this,

You'll feel better when you grieve and move on

Trust me

(Also please tell Mike there's no imminent Lib Dem resurgence. Love you bye)
I have moved on, my morning piece opens with this

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.

Absolutely accept this statement.

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

glw said:

rottenborough said:
Interesting thread. Especially Crosby's advice for Boris to back Brexit once Cameron had ignored his plea for delay. So, Cameron ignored both Osborne and Crosby's advise that the referendum would be a disaster.
If think most people here couldn't fathom the rush when Dave had until the end of 2017.

1) He didn't want most of this Parliament to be dominated by the Referendum (oh the irony, in hindsight)

2) He didn't want to renegotiate in 2017 whilst the French and Germans had their elections.

3) As a rule governments and PMs get more unpopular the longer they've been in office, so by 2017 the government and he would have been unpopular, he didn't want the referendum to be about kicking an unpopular PM and government

I was told a few other reasons, but I've forgotten

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

glw said:

rottenborough said:
Interesting thread. Especially Crosby's advice for Boris to back Brexit once Cameron had ignored his plea for delay. So, Cameron ignored both Osborne and Crosby's advise that the referendum would be a disaster.
If think most people here couldn't fathom the rush when Dave had until the end of 2017.
1) He didn't want most of this Parliament to be dominated by the Referendum (oh the irony, in hindsight)

2) He didn't want to renegotiate in 2017 whilst the French and Germans had their elections.

3) As a rule governments and PMs get more unpopular the longer they've been in office, so by 2017 the government and he would have been unpopular, he didn't want the referendum to be about kicking an unpopular PM and government

I was told a few other reasons, but I've forgotten

Maybe the one you forgot was that he never thought he would lose

glw · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
1) He didn't want most of this Parliament to be dominated by the Referendum (oh the irony, in hindsight)

2) He didn't want to renegotiate in 2017 whilst the French and Germans had their elections.

3) As a rule governments and PMs get more unpopular the longer they've been in office, so by 2017 the government and he would have been unpopular, he didn't want the referendum to be about kicking an unpopular PM and government

I was told a few other reasons, but I've forgotten

Which would make sense if he'd won. Instead he screwed his career up as it turns out the public were quite happy to give the government a kick up the arse in 2016. In fact as a rule of thumb people quite like giving governments a kick up the arse and that should be factored into all planning.

Frankly it serves Dave right.

Alistair · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

glw said:

rottenborough said:
Interesting thread. Especially Crosby's advice for Boris to back Brexit once Cameron had ignored his plea for delay. So, Cameron ignored both Osborne and Crosby's advise that the referendum would be a disaster.
If think most people here couldn't fathom the rush when Dave had until the end of 2017.
1) He didn't want most of this Parliament to be dominated by the Referendum (oh the irony, in hindsight)

2) He didn't want to renegotiate in 2017 whilst the French and Germans had their elections.

3) As a rule governments and PMs get more unpopular the longer they've been in office, so by 2017 the government and he would have been unpopular, he didn't want the referendum to be about kicking an unpopular PM and government

I was told a few other reasons, but I've forgotten

He wanted to give the party time to heal before the 2020 election.

Party before country.

rottenborough · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

grabcocque said:
TSE mate

Let it go.

Trust me on this,

You'll feel better when you grieve and move on

Trust me

(Also please tell Mike there's no imminent Lib Dem resurgence. Love you bye)
I have moved on, my morning piece opens with this

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.

Or will it? We'll see. Once the economic disaster becomes obvious, enough of the public will change their minds. You may be losing faith a little too early Mr TSE.

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

grabcocque said:
TSE mate

Let it go.

Trust me on this,

You'll feel better when you grieve and move on

Trust me

(Also please tell Mike there's no imminent Lib Dem resurgence. Love you bye)
I have moved on, my morning piece opens with this

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.
Or will it? We'll see. Once the economic disaster becomes obvious, enough of the public will change their minds. You may be losing faith a little too early Mr TSE.

Wait until you see my conclusion.....

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2016

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

grabcocque said:
TSE mate

Let it go.

Trust me on this,

You'll feel better when you grieve and move on

Trust me

(Also please tell Mike there's no imminent Lib Dem resurgence. Love you bye)
I have moved on, my morning piece opens with this

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.
Or will it? We'll see. Once the economic disaster becomes obvious, enough of the public will change their minds. You may be losing faith a little too early Mr TSE.

The only way to reverse the vote would be to hold another one as per the dicktat of the EU if they don't agree with a Nations democracy. Just isn't going to happen

Luckyguy1983 · October 2016

Alistair said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Sean_F said:

JosiasJessop said:

CarlottaVance said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

SquareRoot said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:
Not for the first time the King of the North and the Sage of the South are in full accord.

(Now about Mrs May.....)
Hah, I did a Populus poll at lunchtime, one of the questions was I was satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the unelected PM Mrs May was doing her job,.

This was my response.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/787311343250571264
why?
Theresa May is a bit too nanny-statist for my liking, but she's a pretty mainstream Conservative, I'd say.
I very much like her politics. We had plenty of nanny-statism on sugar tax, social policy and heavy flirting with minimum alcohol pricing during the Cameron years.
Ministers have watered down the UK’s long-awaited childhood obesity strategy, dropping proposed curbs on junk food television advertisements and focusing instead on the importance of school sport in moves seen as a victory for the food industry over health campaigners.

https://www.ft.com/content/b945afac-6499-11e6-8310-ecf0bddad227

Now I happen to think we need to do more on childhood obesity (probably starting with parental education) but to criticise May for on one hand 'nanny statism' then on the other 'watering down guidelines' seems a bit confused....
It would be interesting to see a few chars on this: obesity rates over time, average calorie intake over time, and average activity per day over time.

I'm not sure the story should be all about the food industry.
My understanding is that on average, people consumed more calories 60-70 years ago, but with more people performing manual labour/walking to work or school, obesity wasn't a problem.
Or, the energy balance hypothesis of fat growth is incorrect.
You're right, the basic laws of thermo dynamics could be wrong.

That more energy has gone in than is being expended or excreted is not in dispute. But that isn't an explanation of the process by which the body grows body fat. It is no more than saying we have 12 users logged into PB because more logged on than logged off.

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

Has WWIII started yet?

glw · October 2016

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe the one you forgot was that he never thought he would lose

Yeah he certainly seemed to act as though he could wing it despite his dismal renegotiation, and it doesn't surprise me that some of those around him were warning him not to rush it. In the end the public simply didn't believe him, which is a damning verdict on a PM that had won a general election only a year before.

williamglenn · October 2016

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

grabcocque said:
TSE mate

Let it go.

Trust me on this,

You'll feel better when you grieve and move on

Trust me

(Also please tell Mike there's no imminent Lib Dem resurgence. Love you bye)
I have moved on, my morning piece opens with this

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.
Or will it? We'll see. Once the economic disaster becomes obvious, enough of the public will change their minds. You may be losing faith a little too early Mr TSE.
The only way to reverse the vote would be to hold another one as per the dicktat of the EU if they don't agree with a Nations democracy. Just isn't going to happen

Is that because, naming no names, some people only acquire the courage of their convictions after proof that the majority agree with them?

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

Luckyguy1983 said:

Alistair said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Sean_F said:

JosiasJessop said:

CarlottaVance said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

SquareRoot said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:
Not for the first time the King of the North and the Sage of the South are in full accord.

(Now about Mrs May.....)
Hah, I did a Populus poll at lunchtime, one of the questions was I was satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the unelected PM Mrs May was doing her job,.

This was my response.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/787311343250571264
why?
Theresa May is a bit too nanny-statist for my liking, but she's a pretty mainstream Conservative, I'd say.
I very much like her politics. We had plenty of nanny-statism on sugar tax, social policy and heavy flirting with minimum alcohol pricing during the Cameron years.
Ministers have watered down the UK’s long-awaited childhood obesity strategy, dropping proposed curbs on junk food television advertisements and focusing instead on the importance of school sport in moves seen as a victory for the food industry over health campaigners.

https://www.ft.com/content/b945afac-6499-11e6-8310-ecf0bddad227

Now I happen to think we need to do more on childhood obesity (probably starting with parental education) but to criticise May for on one hand 'nanny statism' then on the other 'watering down guidelines' seems a bit confused....
It would be interesting to see a few chars on this: obesity rates over time, average calorie intake over time, and average activity per day over time.

I'm not sure the story should be all about the food industry.
My understanding is that on average, people consumed more calories 60-70 years ago, but with more people performing manual labour/walking to work or school, obesity wasn't a problem.
Or, the energy balance hypothesis of fat growth is incorrect.
You're right, the basic laws of thermo dynamics could be wrong.
That more energy has gone in than is being expended or excreted is not in dispute. But that isn't an explanation of the process by which the body grows body fat. It is no more than saying we have 12 users logged into PB because more logged on than logged off.

Entropy ain't what it used to be....

Luckyguy1983 · October 2016

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

grabcocque said:
TSE mate

Let it go.

Trust me on this,

You'll feel better when you grieve and move on

Trust me

(Also please tell Mike there's no imminent Lib Dem resurgence. Love you bye)
I have moved on, my morning piece opens with this

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.
Or will it? We'll see. Once the economic disaster becomes obvious, enough of the public will change their minds. You may be losing faith a little too early Mr TSE.

Translation - with any luck those die-hard remoaners who sadly still occupy our corridors of power will manage to spook the bovine hordes into thinking their flatscreens are at risk if we ever leave. A really loathsome hope; I do congratulate you.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2016

Sunil_Prasannan said:
Has WWIII started yet?

Russian fleet sailing through the channel and sabre rattling generally by Putin does increase the aggro

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

glw said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe the one you forgot was that he never thought he would lose
Yeah he certainly seemed to act as though he could wing it despite his dismal renegotiation, and it doesn't surprise me that some of those around him were warning him not to rush it. In the end the public simply didn't believe him, which is a damning verdict on a PM that had won a general election only a year before.

Without wanting to break confidences, a few PBers will confirm this, but in March of this year, I had conversations with people on the Remain and Leave campaign teams, all sides off the record said to me, if Remain led on the economic question, then Remain would win.

Cameron, like a lot of people thought it was the economy, stupid.

rottenborough · October 2016

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

grabcocque said:
TSE mate

Let it go.

Trust me on this,

You'll feel better when you grieve and move on

Trust me

(Also please tell Mike there's no imminent Lib Dem resurgence. Love you bye)
I have moved on, my morning piece opens with this

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.
Or will it? We'll see. Once the economic disaster becomes obvious, enough of the public will change their minds. You may be losing faith a little too early Mr TSE.
The only way to reverse the vote would be to hold another one as per the dicktat of the EU if they don't agree with a Nations democracy. Just isn't going to happen

I'm not convinced. Everything could be such a mess with a couple of years or so that there is a popular demand for a change, referendum or not. Who knows? Politics is always more fluid than one thinks.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2016

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

grabcocque said:
TSE mate

Let it go.

Trust me on this,

You'll feel better when you grieve and move on

Trust me

(Also please tell Mike there's no imminent Lib Dem resurgence. Love you bye)
I have moved on, my morning piece opens with this

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.
Or will it? We'll see. Once the economic disaster becomes obvious, enough of the public will change their minds. You may be losing faith a little too early Mr TSE.
The only way to reverse the vote would be to hold another one as per the dicktat of the EU if they don't agree with a Nations democracy. Just isn't going to happen
I'm not convinced. Everything could be such a mess with a couple of years or so that there is a popular demand for a change, referendum or not. Who knows? Politics is always more fluid than one thinks.

As A50 will have been served there is no way back

GIN1138 · October 2016

We all know Boris was on a knife edge between Remain and Leave. Not sure why this should be news?

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2016

GIN1138 said:
We all know Boris was on a knife edge between Remain and Leave. Not sure why this should be news?

It's not

Philip_Thompson · October 2016

Terrible headline you've used and your message, makes it look like you haven't even read the article quoted.

When I make a momentous decision I try and do a cost/benefit analysis of arguing for the decision, arguing against it and then seeing which argument is best. This is clearly what he has done here.

That Boris thought so deeply about this is something to be commended not ashamed of. I don't say this often but you should be completely ashamed of being so petty TSE.

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

Philip_Thompson said:
Terrible headline you've used and your message, makes it look like you haven't even read the article quoted.

When I make a momentous decision I try and do a cost/benefit analysis of arguing for the decision, arguing against it and then seeing which argument is best. This is clearly what he has done here.

That Boris thought so deeply about this is something to be commended not ashamed of. I don't say this often but you should be completely ashamed of being so petty TSE.

TSE = TINO

*runs and hides*

Dromedary · October 2016

Trump's accusation that Clinton was drugged up during the second debate and his call for them both to be drug tested before the third debate are quite clever.

She surely can't say yes. Then he would just demand something else.

And at the debate, he's likely to accuse her directly of being drugged up, there and then, pointing out that she refused to be tested. "You're crazy, Donald." "Why are you blinking so much, Hillary?"

Many Trumpers believe crazy stuff about Clinton. I don't know how open the "middle" are to being led to such beliefs. Drug accusations could be the wedge. Clinton may be put into a position where it's difficult to win: too energetic, she's "on drugs"; too laid back, she's physically not up to it. It needs to be observed that it's unlikely she would be attacked in this kind of physical way if she were male.

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:
We all know Boris was on a knife edge between Remain and Leave. Not sure why this should be news?
It's not

Why release this "news" now, four months AFTER the Referendum?

rottenborough · October 2016

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:
We all know Boris was on a knife edge between Remain and Leave. Not sure why this should be news?
It's not
Why release this "news" now, four months AFTER the Referendum?

Because the journo has a book out.

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

Philip_Thompson said:
Terrible headline you've used and your message, makes it look like you haven't even read the article quoted.

When I make a momentous decision I try and do a cost/benefit analysis of arguing for the decision, arguing against it and then seeing which argument is best. This is clearly what he has done here.

That Boris thought so deeply about this is something to be commended not ashamed of. I don't say this often but you should be completely ashamed of being so petty TSE.

Politics is often about perceptions, not facts, the perceptions on Boris have just been reinforced.

You don't think when he next advocates hard Brexit, his comments are going to quoted back at him? It's going to damage him.

I was right on why people should keep on laying Boris in the previous race, perhaps I'll be right again.

rottenborough · October 2016

Ohio GOP campaign meltdown:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-campaign-ohio-gop-chairman-matt-borges-229840

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

rottenborough said:
Ohio GOP campaign meltdown:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-campaign-ohio-gop-chairman-matt-borges-229840

Yeah but Wikileaks is more important than that.

GIN1138 · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

You don't think when he next advocates hard Brexit, his comments are going to quoted back at him?

I guess that could explain why Gove knifed him?

Chris · October 2016

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

grabcocque said:
TSE mate

Let it go.

Trust me on this,

You'll feel better when you grieve and move on

Trust me

(Also please tell Mike there's no imminent Lib Dem resurgence. Love you bye)
I have moved on, my morning piece opens with this

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.
Or will it? We'll see. Once the economic disaster becomes obvious, enough of the public will change their minds. You may be losing faith a little too early Mr TSE.
Translation - with any luck those die-hard remoaners who sadly still occupy our corridors of power will manage to spook the bovine hordes into thinking their flatscreens are at risk if we ever leave. A really loathsome hope; I do congratulate you.

Translation of the translation - too late, they fell for it, we win for ever and ever, ha ha ha ha.

rottenborough · October 2016

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

grabcocque said:
TSE mate

Let it go.

Trust me on this,

You'll feel better when you grieve and move on

Trust me

(Also please tell Mike there's no imminent Lib Dem resurgence. Love you bye)
I have moved on, my morning piece opens with this

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.
Or will it? We'll see. Once the economic disaster becomes obvious, enough of the public will change their minds. You may be losing faith a little too early Mr TSE.
The only way to reverse the vote would be to hold another one as per the dicktat of the EU if they don't agree with a Nations democracy. Just isn't going to happen
I'm not convinced. Everything could be such a mess with a couple of years or so that there is a popular demand for a change, referendum or not. Who knows? Politics is always more fluid than one thinks.
As A50 will have been served there is no way back

How do we know. No country has ever used it. These international agreements have a habit of being flexible.

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

You don't think when he next advocates hard Brexit, his comments are going to quoted back at him?
I guess that could explain why Gove knifed him?

Article says Boris wanted to punch Gove when Gove tried to apologise for knifing him.

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

You don't think when he next advocates hard Brexit, his comments are going to quoted back at him?
I guess that could explain why Gove knifed him?

What is Gove?
Baby, don't hurt me
Don't hurt me
No more

Philip_Thompson · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Terrible headline you've used and your message, makes it look like you haven't even read the article quoted.

When I make a momentous decision I try and do a cost/benefit analysis of arguing for the decision, arguing against it and then seeing which argument is best. This is clearly what he has done here.

That Boris thought so deeply about this is something to be commended not ashamed of. I don't say this often but you should be completely ashamed of being so petty TSE.
Politics is often about perceptions, not facts, the perceptions on Boris have just been reinforced.

You don't think when he next advocates hard Brexit, his comments are going to quoted back at him? It's going to damage him.

I was right on why people should keep on laying Boris in the previous race, perhaps I'll be right again.

No I don't think so, since there's a reason he didn't publish those words and besides it isn't like Boris doesn't have a "colourful" back catalogue of words to be quoted back at him already.

The idea it is somehow shameful to try to think through both sides of the debate is terrible.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2016

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

grabcocque said:
TSE mate

Let it go.

Trust me on this,

You'll feel better when you grieve and move on

Trust me

(Also please tell Mike there's no imminent Lib Dem resurgence. Love you bye)
I have moved on, my morning piece opens with this

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.
Or will it? We'll see. Once the economic disaster becomes obvious, enough of the public will change their minds. You may be losing faith a little too early Mr TSE.
The only way to reverse the vote would be to hold another one as per the dicktat of the EU if they don't agree with a Nations democracy. Just isn't going to happen
I'm not convinced. Everything could be such a mess with a couple of years or so that there is a popular demand for a change, referendum or not. Who knows? Politics is always more fluid than one thinks.
As A50 will have been served there is no way back
How do we know. No country has ever used it. These international agreements have a habit of being flexible.

Well I suppose whatever will be, will be and the one thing I do accept is that no one, absolutely no one, knows how this process will evolve including the EU

Chris · October 2016

Dromedary said:
Trump's accusation that Clinton was drugged up during the second debate and his call for them both to be drug tested before the third debate are quite clever.

Do you really think so?

I'm sure it will play well with his core supporters, but do these crazy conspiracy theories really impress the world at large?

JennyFreeman · October 2016

GIN1138 said:
We all know Boris was on a knife edge between Remain and Leave. Not sure why this should be news?

I think a lot of us were on a knife edge about it and genuinely wrestled with the pros and cons. Whoever wrote this up on here demeans themselves and this site.

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Terrible headline you've used and your message, makes it look like you haven't even read the article quoted.

When I make a momentous decision I try and do a cost/benefit analysis of arguing for the decision, arguing against it and then seeing which argument is best. This is clearly what he has done here.

That Boris thought so deeply about this is something to be commended not ashamed of. I don't say this often but you should be completely ashamed of being so petty TSE.
Politics is often about perceptions, not facts, the perceptions on Boris have just been reinforced.

You don't think when he next advocates hard Brexit, his comments are going to quoted back at him? It's going to damage him.

I was right on why people should keep on laying Boris in the previous race, perhaps I'll be right again.
No I don't think so, since there's a reason he didn't publish those words and besides it isn't like Boris doesn't have a "colourful" back catalogue of words to be quoted back at him already.

The idea it is somehow shameful to try to think through both sides of the debate is terrible.

Iff Brexit does turn out be an economic mistake, who do you think voters will blame? Themselves or the politicians that persuaded them that Brexit was a good idea?

rottenborough · October 2016

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

grabcocque said:
TSE mate

Let it go.

Trust me on this,

You'll feel better when you grieve and move on

Trust me

(Also please tell Mike there's no imminent Lib Dem resurgence. Love you bye)
I have moved on, my morning piece opens with this

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.
Or will it? We'll see. Once the economic disaster becomes obvious, enough of the public will change their minds. You may be losing faith a little too early Mr TSE.
Translation - with any luck those die-hard remoaners who sadly still occupy our corridors of power will manage to spook the bovine hordes into thinking their flatscreens are at risk if we ever leave. A really loathsome hope; I do congratulate you.

A little harsh I think. I am more interested in what might happen than being right about these things. As a betting site we speculate on the future.

My two pence worth is that the negotiations will be an utter mess, little will be agreed for months and months, the EU will drag its feet, the British have no clear idea where we want to get to, different parts of UK government will be arguing for different outcomes, the economic clouds will darken ( the rubbish about how wonderfully well we are doing post-Brexit is just that, rubbish - all these things have a time lag) and so on.

jonny83 · October 2016

Someone wake me up when we have left, I am so sick of hearing about Brexit. And I was a remainer.

Chris · October 2016

JennyFreeman said:

GIN1138 said:
We all know Boris was on a knife edge between Remain and Leave. Not sure why this should be news?
I think a lot of us were on a knife edge about it and genuinely wrestled with the pros and cons.

To the extent of writing a paean to EU membership, and then two days later declaring for Leave?

Why do people bend over backwards to make excuses for dishonest politicians?

rottenborough · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Terrible headline you've used and your message, makes it look like you haven't even read the article quoted.

When I make a momentous decision I try and do a cost/benefit analysis of arguing for the decision, arguing against it and then seeing which argument is best. This is clearly what he has done here.

That Boris thought so deeply about this is something to be commended not ashamed of. I don't say this often but you should be completely ashamed of being so petty TSE.
Politics is often about perceptions, not facts, the perceptions on Boris have just been reinforced.

You don't think when he next advocates hard Brexit, his comments are going to quoted back at him? It's going to damage him.

I was right on why people should keep on laying Boris in the previous race, perhaps I'll be right again.
No I don't think so, since there's a reason he didn't publish those words and besides it isn't like Boris doesn't have a "colourful" back catalogue of words to be quoted back at him already.

The idea it is somehow shameful to try to think through both sides of the debate is terrible.
Iff Brexit does turn out be an economic mistake, who do you think voters will blame? Themselves or the politicians that persuaded them that Brexit was a good idea?

The latter obviously. Arise Osborne from backbench obscurity.

Philip_Thompson · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Terrible headline you've used and your message, makes it look like you haven't even read the article quoted.

When I make a momentous decision I try and do a cost/benefit analysis of arguing for the decision, arguing against it and then seeing which argument is best. This is clearly what he has done here.

That Boris thought so deeply about this is something to be commended not ashamed of. I don't say this often but you should be completely ashamed of being so petty TSE.
Politics is often about perceptions, not facts, the perceptions on Boris have just been reinforced.

You don't think when he next advocates hard Brexit, his comments are going to quoted back at him? It's going to damage him.

I was right on why people should keep on laying Boris in the previous race, perhaps I'll be right again.
No I don't think so, since there's a reason he didn't publish those words and besides it isn't like Boris doesn't have a "colourful" back catalogue of words to be quoted back at him already.

The idea it is somehow shameful to try to think through both sides of the debate is terrible.
Iff Brexit does turn out be an economic mistake, who do you think voters will blame? Themselves or the politicians that persuaded them that Brexit was a good idea?

Nothing in this article changes any of that. From the moment Boris won the campaign that was true, hence the silly phrase going around of "you Brexit you own it". That Boris thought through the risks of leaving is a good sign not a bad one.

Are you seriously suggesting it would be better if Boris had gung ho signed up for the Leave campaign without even thinking about what the risks, dangers or consequences of Leaving could be at all?

Philip_Thompson · October 2016

Chris said:

JennyFreeman said:

GIN1138 said:
We all know Boris was on a knife edge between Remain and Leave. Not sure why this should be news?
I think a lot of us were on a knife edge about it and genuinely wrestled with the pros and cons.
To the extent of writing a paean to EU membership, and then two days later declaring for Leave?

Why do people bend over backwards to make excuses for dishonest politicians?

Read the article in full, that's not what happened.

rottenborough · October 2016

jonny83 said:
Someone wake me up when we have left, I am so sick of hearing about Brexit. And I was a remainer.

See you in a decade then :-)

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

Disgraceful, grammar schools really do screw the poor.

Just 2.6% of grammar pupils are from poor backgrounds, new figures show

‘Shamefully’ dire record fuels criticism of May’s schools selection plans

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/oct/15/very-small-percentage-of-grammar-school-pupils-from-poorer-families-new-statistics-show?CMP=share_btn_tw

ThreeQuidder · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Terrible headline you've used and your message, makes it look like you haven't even read the article quoted.

When I make a momentous decision I try and do a cost/benefit analysis of arguing for the decision, arguing against it and then seeing which argument is best. This is clearly what he has done here.

That Boris thought so deeply about this is something to be commended not ashamed of. I don't say this often but you should be completely ashamed of being so petty TSE.
Politics is often about perceptions, not facts, the perceptions on Boris have just been reinforced.

You don't think when he next advocates hard Brexit, his comments are going to quoted back at him? It's going to damage him.

I was right on why people should keep on laying Boris in the previous race, perhaps I'll be right again.
No I don't think so, since there's a reason he didn't publish those words and besides it isn't like Boris doesn't have a "colourful" back catalogue of words to be quoted back at him already.

The idea it is somehow shameful to try to think through both sides of the debate is terrible.
Iff Brexit does turn out be an economic mistake, who do you think voters will blame? Themselves or the politicians that persuaded them that Brexit was a good idea?

The politicians who implemented it.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2016

rottenborough said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

grabcocque said:
TSE mate

Let it go.

Trust me on this,

You'll feel better when you grieve and move on

Trust me

(Also please tell Mike there's no imminent Lib Dem resurgence. Love you bye)
I have moved on, my morning piece opens with this

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.
Or will it? We'll see. Once the economic disaster becomes obvious, enough of the public will change their minds. You may be losing faith a little too early Mr TSE.
Translation - with any luck those die-hard remoaners who sadly still occupy our corridors of power will manage to spook the bovine hordes into thinking their flatscreens are at risk if we ever leave. A really loathsome hope; I do congratulate you.
A little harsh I think. I am more interested in what might happen than being right about these things. As a betting site we speculate on the future.

My two pence worth is that the negotiations will be an utter mess, little will be agreed for months and months, the EU will drag its feet, the British have no clear idea where we want to get to, different parts of UK government will be arguing for different outcomes, the economic clouds will darken ( the rubbish about how wonderfully well we are doing post-Brexit is just that, rubbish - all these things have a time lag) and so on.

One of the feel good factors about leaving will occur later this year if Nissan confirm the production of it's new car from their Sunderland factory as was indicated earlier this week with the CEO meeting with TM.

Also ING have announced it is relocating it's HQ to the City.

Both these if confirmed confound some of the many negatives we hear from the remainers

Philip_Thompson · October 2016

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Terrible headline you've used and your message, makes it look like you haven't even read the article quoted.

When I make a momentous decision I try and do a cost/benefit analysis of arguing for the decision, arguing against it and then seeing which argument is best. This is clearly what he has done here.

That Boris thought so deeply about this is something to be commended not ashamed of. I don't say this often but you should be completely ashamed of being so petty TSE.
Politics is often about perceptions, not facts, the perceptions on Boris have just been reinforced.

You don't think when he next advocates hard Brexit, his comments are going to quoted back at him? It's going to damage him.

I was right on why people should keep on laying Boris in the previous race, perhaps I'll be right again.
No I don't think so, since there's a reason he didn't publish those words and besides it isn't like Boris doesn't have a "colourful" back catalogue of words to be quoted back at him already.

The idea it is somehow shameful to try to think through both sides of the debate is terrible.
Iff Brexit does turn out be an economic mistake, who do you think voters will blame? Themselves or the politicians that persuaded them that Brexit was a good idea?
The politicians who implemented it.

Good point.

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Terrible headline you've used and your message, makes it look like you haven't even read the article quoted.

When I make a momentous decision I try and do a cost/benefit analysis of arguing for the decision, arguing against it and then seeing which argument is best. This is clearly what he has done here.

That Boris thought so deeply about this is something to be commended not ashamed of. I don't say this often but you should be completely ashamed of being so petty TSE.
Politics is often about perceptions, not facts, the perceptions on Boris have just been reinforced.

You don't think when he next advocates hard Brexit, his comments are going to quoted back at him? It's going to damage him.

I was right on why people should keep on laying Boris in the previous race, perhaps I'll be right again.
No I don't think so, since there's a reason he didn't publish those words and besides it isn't like Boris doesn't have a "colourful" back catalogue of words to be quoted back at him already.

The idea it is somehow shameful to try to think through both sides of the debate is terrible.
Iff Brexit does turn out be an economic mistake, who do you think voters will blame? Themselves or the politicians that persuaded them that Brexit was a good idea?
The politicians who implemented it.

You mean people like the Foreign Secretary?

MikeK · October 2016

JennyFreeman said:

GIN1138 said:
We all know Boris was on a knife edge between Remain and Leave. Not sure why this should be news?
I think a lot of us were on a knife edge about it and genuinely wrestled with the pros and cons. Whoever wrote this up on here demeans themselves and this site.

That can only be TSE, who is a rabid Remainer. The trouble with Boris is that he thinks too much.

rottenborough · October 2016

Philip_Thompson said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Terrible headline you've used and your message, makes it look like you haven't even read the article quoted.

When I make a momentous decision I try and do a cost/benefit analysis of arguing for the decision, arguing against it and then seeing which argument is best. This is clearly what he has done here.

That Boris thought so deeply about this is something to be commended not ashamed of. I don't say this often but you should be completely ashamed of being so petty TSE.
Politics is often about perceptions, not facts, the perceptions on Boris have just been reinforced.

You don't think when he next advocates hard Brexit, his comments are going to quoted back at him? It's going to damage him.

I was right on why people should keep on laying Boris in the previous race, perhaps I'll be right again.
No I don't think so, since there's a reason he didn't publish those words and besides it isn't like Boris doesn't have a "colourful" back catalogue of words to be quoted back at him already.

The idea it is somehow shameful to try to think through both sides of the debate is terrible.
Iff Brexit does turn out be an economic mistake, who do you think voters will blame? Themselves or the politicians that persuaded them that Brexit was a good idea?
The politicians who implemented it.
Good point.

Which is why Boris is For Sec and Fox is Trade numpty person.

NorvilleRogersIII · October 2016

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

glw said:

rottenborough said:
Interesting thread. Especially Crosby's advice for Boris to back Brexit once Cameron had ignored his plea for delay. So, Cameron ignored both Osborne and Crosby's advise that the referendum would be a disaster.
If think most people here couldn't fathom the rush when Dave had until the end of 2017.
1) He didn't want most of this Parliament to be dominated by the Referendum (oh the irony, in hindsight)

2) He didn't want to renegotiate in 2017 whilst the French and Germans had their elections.

3) As a rule governments and PMs get more unpopular the longer they've been in office, so by 2017 the government and he would have been unpopular, he didn't want the referendum to be about kicking an unpopular PM and government

I was told a few other reasons, but I've forgotten
Maybe the one you forgot was that he never thought he would lose

A young man at my gym, who I had assumed was a student, turns out to be a civil servant. I asked him about the referendum and he said that Cameron et al were supremely confident, & thought it was in the bag until it was too late. Apparently they hadn't even considered defeat.

Dromedary · October 2016

Chris said:

Dromedary said:
Trump's accusation that Clinton was drugged up during the second debate and his call for them both to be drug tested before the third debate are quite clever.
Do you really think so?

I'm sure it will play well with his core supporters, but do these crazy conspiracy theories really impress the world at large?

That's the question I asked: will it play with the "middle" during the debate? It may play quite well if he gets his delivery and timing and body language right - remember his TV background. It's not even at the crazy edge of crazy: a lot of journalists and politicians take illegal drugs.

Why is saying she's on drugs a "conspiracy theory"? I'm trying to fathom your definition. Is it "a statement that a politician is hiding something that would ruin them if it came out, when they obviously aren't and it's crazy to think they are"?

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2016

NorvilleRogersIII said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

glw said:

rottenborough said:
Interesting thread. Especially Crosby's advice for Boris to back Brexit once Cameron had ignored his plea for delay. So, Cameron ignored both Osborne and Crosby's advise that the referendum would be a disaster.
If think most people here couldn't fathom the rush when Dave had until the end of 2017.
1) He didn't want most of this Parliament to be dominated by the Referendum (oh the irony, in hindsight)

2) He didn't want to renegotiate in 2017 whilst the French and Germans had their elections.

3) As a rule governments and PMs get more unpopular the longer they've been in office, so by 2017 the government and he would have been unpopular, he didn't want the referendum to be about kicking an unpopular PM and government

I was told a few other reasons, but I've forgotten
Maybe the one you forgot was that he never thought he would lose
A young man at my gym, who I had assumed was a student, turns out to be a civil servant. I asked him about the referendum and he said that Cameron et al were supremely confident, & thought it was in the bag until it was too late. Apparently they hadn't even considered defeat.

Welcome to political betting - your last sentence is exactly my opinion

Chris · October 2016

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

JennyFreeman said:

GIN1138 said:
We all know Boris was on a knife edge between Remain and Leave. Not sure why this should be news?
I think a lot of us were on a knife edge about it and genuinely wrestled with the pros and cons.
To the extent of writing a paean to EU membership, and then two days later declaring for Leave?

Why do people bend over backwards to make excuses for dishonest politicians?
Read the article in full, that's not what happened.

If I've got it wrong in any way, by all means explain.

rottenborough · October 2016

NorvilleRogersIII said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

glw said:

rottenborough said:
Interesting thread. Especially Crosby's advice for Boris to back Brexit once Cameron had ignored his plea for delay. So, Cameron ignored both Osborne and Crosby's advise that the referendum would be a disaster.
If think most people here couldn't fathom the rush when Dave had until the end of 2017.
1) He didn't want most of this Parliament to be dominated by the Referendum (oh the irony, in hindsight)

2) He didn't want to renegotiate in 2017 whilst the French and Germans had their elections.

3) As a rule governments and PMs get more unpopular the longer they've been in office, so by 2017 the government and he would have been unpopular, he didn't want the referendum to be about kicking an unpopular PM and government

I was told a few other reasons, but I've forgotten
Maybe the one you forgot was that he never thought he would lose
A young man at my gym, who I had assumed was a student, turns out to be a civil servant. I asked him about the referendum and he said that Cameron et al were supremely confident, & thought it was in the bag until it was too late. Apparently they hadn't even considered defeat.

Seems to fit with what we know so far. Cameron and co really thought it was a sure-fire winner: that most people would not vote against their own (perceived) economic interests. They needed to get out more.

Osborne it seems had the good sense to warn the idea of a Referendum was crazy.

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2016

rottenborough said:

NorvilleRogersIII said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

glw said:

rottenborough said:
Interesting thread. Especially Crosby's advice for Boris to back Brexit once Cameron had ignored his plea for delay. So, Cameron ignored both Osborne and Crosby's advise that the referendum would be a disaster.
If think most people here couldn't fathom the rush when Dave had until the end of 2017.
1) He didn't want most of this Parliament to be dominated by the Referendum (oh the irony, in hindsight)

2) He didn't want to renegotiate in 2017 whilst the French and Germans had their elections.

3) As a rule governments and PMs get more unpopular the longer they've been in office, so by 2017 the government and he would have been unpopular, he didn't want the referendum to be about kicking an unpopular PM and government

I was told a few other reasons, but I've forgotten
Maybe the one you forgot was that he never thought he would lose
A young man at my gym, who I had assumed was a student, turns out to be a civil servant. I asked him about the referendum and he said that Cameron et al were supremely confident, & thought it was in the bag until it was too late. Apparently they hadn't even considered defeat.
Seems to fit with what we know so far. Cameron and co really thought it was a sure-fire winner: that most people would not vote against their own (perceived) economic interests. They needed to get out more.

Osborne it seems had the good sense to warn the idea of a Referendum was crazy.

History will decide whether it was crazy or inspired

Philip_Thompson · October 2016

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Terrible headline you've used and your message, makes it look like you haven't even read the article quoted.

When I make a momentous decision I try and do a cost/benefit analysis of arguing for the decision, arguing against it and then seeing which argument is best. This is clearly what he has done here.

That Boris thought so deeply about this is something to be commended not ashamed of. I don't say this often but you should be completely ashamed of being so petty TSE.
Politics is often about perceptions, not facts, the perceptions on Boris have just been reinforced.

You don't think when he next advocates hard Brexit, his comments are going to quoted back at him? It's going to damage him.

I was right on why people should keep on laying Boris in the previous race, perhaps I'll be right again.
No I don't think so, since there's a reason he didn't publish those words and besides it isn't like Boris doesn't have a "colourful" back catalogue of words to be quoted back at him already.

The idea it is somehow shameful to try to think through both sides of the debate is terrible.
Iff Brexit does turn out be an economic mistake, who do you think voters will blame? Themselves or the politicians that persuaded them that Brexit was a good idea?
The politicians who implemented it.
Good point.
Which is why Boris is For Sec and Fox is Trade numpty person.

And Gove is what exactly? And May was Leave was she? Vote Leave doesn't exist anymore, it is the government that will either succeed or fail and if it fails then May will not be able to say "well I thought we should have Remained anyway".

Sunil_Prasannan · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
Disgraceful, grammar schools really do screw the poor.

Just 2.6% of grammar pupils are from poor backgrounds, new figures show

‘Shamefully’ dire record fuels criticism of May’s schools selection plans

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/oct/15/very-small-percentage-of-grammar-school-pupils-from-poorer-families-new-statistics-show?CMP=share_btn_tw

How about Public Schools? How many "poor" pupils?

Chris · October 2016

Dromedary said:

Why is saying she's on drugs a "conspiracy theory"? I'm trying to fathom your definition.

Let's just say that in the absence of a shred of evidence for the claim, I'll classify it with all the other drivel that Trump has been coming out with, such as Obama not having been born in the USA (which if I understand correctly he has retracted).

rottenborough · October 2016

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Terrible headline you've used and your message, makes it look like you haven't even read the article quoted.

When I make a momentous decision I try and do a cost/benefit analysis of arguing for the decision, arguing against it and then seeing which argument is best. This is clearly what he has done here.

That Boris thought so deeply about this is something to be commended not ashamed of. I don't say this often but you should be completely ashamed of being so petty TSE.
Politics is often about perceptions, not facts, the perceptions on Boris have just been reinforced.

You don't think when he next advocates hard Brexit, his comments are going to quoted back at him? It's going to damage him.

I was right on why people should keep on laying Boris in the previous race, perhaps I'll be right again.
No I don't think so, since there's a reason he didn't publish those words and besides it isn't like Boris doesn't have a "colourful" back catalogue of words to be quoted back at him already.

The idea it is somehow shameful to try to think through both sides of the debate is terrible.
Iff Brexit does turn out be an economic mistake, who do you think voters will blame? Themselves or the politicians that persuaded them that Brexit was a good idea?
The politicians who implemented it.
Good point.
Which is why Boris is For Sec and Fox is Trade numpty person.
And Gove is what exactly? And May was Leave was she? Vote Leave doesn't exist anymore, it is the government that will either succeed or fail and if it fails then May will not be able to say "well I thought we should have Remained anyway".

Possibly. Or she might undertake a 'night of the long knives' and sack half the cabinet who have "let her down" on this issue and bring in new talent.

Philip_Thompson · October 2016

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

JennyFreeman said:

GIN1138 said:
We all know Boris was on a knife edge between Remain and Leave. Not sure why this should be news?
I think a lot of us were on a knife edge about it and genuinely wrestled with the pros and cons.
To the extent of writing a paean to EU membership, and then two days later declaring for Leave?

Why do people bend over backwards to make excuses for dishonest politicians?
Read the article in full, that's not what happened.
If I've got it wrong in any way, by all means explain.

You claim he wrote a "paean to EU membership" and implied he is a "dishonest politician". The article says "He had already penned one piece arguing the case for "out", then wrote the "remain" article as a way of clarifying his thoughts, before composing a final article backing Brexit for publication."

"The book dispels the myth that Johnson's case for "remain" was better than his argument to "leave". In fact the article was dashed off quickly and seems to be an attempt by Johnson to convince himself the case for staying in was weak."

Some "paean". Some "dishonesty". It is in fact standard rigorous procedure to test both hypothesis before coming to a conclusion. *rolleyes*

AndyJS · October 2016

Interesting — the Tory candidate in Witney is a Brexiteer.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/11/witney-byelection-hard-brexit-may-be-key-issue-in-camerons-former-constituency

AndyJS · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
Disgraceful, grammar schools really do screw the poor.

Just 2.6% of grammar pupils are from poor backgrounds, new figures show

‘Shamefully’ dire record fuels criticism of May’s schools selection plans

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/oct/15/very-small-percentage-of-grammar-school-pupils-from-poorer-families-new-statistics-show?CMP=share_btn_tw

It's private schools that screw the poor.

MarqueeMark · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

glw said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe the one you forgot was that he never thought he would lose
Yeah he certainly seemed to act as though he could wing it despite his dismal renegotiation, and it doesn't surprise me that some of those around him were warning him not to rush it. In the end the public simply didn't believe him, which is a damning verdict on a PM that had won a general election only a year before.

Without wanting to break confidences, a few PBers will confirm this, but in March of this year, I had conversations with people on the Remain and Leave campaign teams, all sides off the record said to me, if Remain led on the economic question, then Remain would win.

Cameron, like a lot of people thought it was the economy, stupid.

And nobody considered when the immigration numbers were coming out, relative to the date of the Referendum? Amateur doesn't begin to get close....

Philip_Thompson · October 2016

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Terrible headline you've used and your message, makes it look like you haven't even read the article quoted.

When I make a momentous decision I try and do a cost/benefit analysis of arguing for the decision, arguing against it and then seeing which argument is best. This is clearly what he has done here.

That Boris thought so deeply about this is something to be commended not ashamed of. I don't say this often but you should be completely ashamed of being so petty TSE.
Politics is often about perceptions, not facts, the perceptions on Boris have just been reinforced.

You don't think when he next advocates hard Brexit, his comments are going to quoted back at him? It's going to damage him.

I was right on why people should keep on laying Boris in the previous race, perhaps I'll be right again.
No I don't think so, since there's a reason he didn't publish those words and besides it isn't like Boris doesn't have a "colourful" back catalogue of words to be quoted back at him already.

The idea it is somehow shameful to try to think through both sides of the debate is terrible.
Iff Brexit does turn out be an economic mistake, who do you think voters will blame? Themselves or the politicians that persuaded them that Brexit was a good idea?
The politicians who implemented it.
Good point.
Which is why Boris is For Sec and Fox is Trade numpty person.
And Gove is what exactly? And May was Leave was she? Vote Leave doesn't exist anymore, it is the government that will either succeed or fail and if it fails then May will not be able to say "well I thought we should have Remained anyway".
Possibly. Or she might undertake a 'night of the long knives' and sack half the cabinet who have "let her down" on this issue and bring in new talent.

Yes but if she does it will be because they have "let her down" in the job, not because they did so in the referendum. It is the implementation not the convincing that matters.

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Disgraceful, grammar schools really do screw the poor.

Just 2.6% of grammar pupils are from poor backgrounds, new figures show

‘Shamefully’ dire record fuels criticism of May’s schools selection plans

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/oct/15/very-small-percentage-of-grammar-school-pupils-from-poorer-families-new-statistics-show?CMP=share_btn_tw
It's private schools that screw the poor.

Evidence?

NoEasyDay · October 2016

What a silly silly thread,

This used to be a serious site.

rottenborough · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Disgraceful, grammar schools really do screw the poor.

Just 2.6% of grammar pupils are from poor backgrounds, new figures show

‘Shamefully’ dire record fuels criticism of May’s schools selection plans

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/oct/15/very-small-percentage-of-grammar-school-pupils-from-poorer-families-new-statistics-show?CMP=share_btn_tw
It's private schools that screw the poor.
Evidence?

They can't afford them.

JonathanD · October 2016

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

grabcocque said:
TSE mate

Let it go.

Trust me on this,

You'll feel better when you grieve and move on

Trust me

(Also please tell Mike there's no imminent Lib Dem resurgence. Love you bye)
I have moved on, my morning piece opens with this

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.
Or will it? We'll see. Once the economic disaster becomes obvious, enough of the public will change their minds. You may be losing faith a little too early Mr TSE.
Translation - with any luck those die-hard remoaners who sadly still occupy our corridors of power will manage to spook the bovine hordes into thinking their flatscreens are at risk if we ever leave. A really loathsome hope; I do congratulate you.
A little harsh I think. I am more interested in what might happen than being right about these things. As a betting site we speculate on the future.

My two pence worth is that the negotiations will be an utter mess, little will be agreed for months and months, the EU will drag its feet, the British have no clear idea where we want to get to, different parts of UK government will be arguing for different outcomes, the economic clouds will darken ( the rubbish about how wonderfully well we are doing post-Brexit is just that, rubbish - all these things have a time lag) and so on.
Also ING have announced it is relocating it's HQ to the City.

ING have not moved their HQ to London, they have moved several dozen currency trading related jobs to London as part of a global restructuring in which 7000 people are being made redundant. Its a level of desperation that this move is being made such a big deal of.

"The Netherlands’ biggest financial firm said currency, derivatives and interest rate traders will move from Brussels to London, along with some foreign exchange options, rates and fixed income staff from Amsterdam. Up to 60 people are thought to be affected by this plan"

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Disgraceful, grammar schools really do screw the poor.

Just 2.6% of grammar pupils are from poor backgrounds, new figures show

‘Shamefully’ dire record fuels criticism of May’s schools selection plans

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/oct/15/very-small-percentage-of-grammar-school-pupils-from-poorer-families-new-statistics-show?CMP=share_btn_tw
How about Public Schools? How many "poor" pupils?

I did read that bursaries and grants meant that around 4% of fee paying school students were from poor/disadvantaged backgrounds.

I'll have to dig it out.

Wasn't sure if it was for the whole sector, or from a study of a region.

rottenborough · October 2016

Night all.

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Disgraceful, grammar schools really do screw the poor.

Just 2.6% of grammar pupils are from poor backgrounds, new figures show

‘Shamefully’ dire record fuels criticism of May’s schools selection plans

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/oct/15/very-small-percentage-of-grammar-school-pupils-from-poorer-families-new-statistics-show?CMP=share_btn_tw
It's private schools that screw the poor.
Evidence?
They can't afford them.

But apart from a minor tax exemption, the poor aren't paying for private schools as they are with grammar schools.

Edit: And parents who are sending their kids to fee paying schools are doing the poor a favour, and making sure the government doesn't pay to educate their kids.

That money is spent on the poor kids.

Mortimer · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Terrible headline you've used and your message, makes it look like you haven't even read the article quoted.

When I make a momentous decision I try and do a cost/benefit analysis of arguing for the decision, arguing against it and then seeing which argument is best. This is clearly what he has done here.

That Boris thought so deeply about this is something to be commended not ashamed of. I don't say this often but you should be completely ashamed of being so petty TSE.
Politics is often about perceptions, not facts, the perceptions on Boris have just been reinforced.

You don't think when he next advocates hard Brexit, his comments are going to quoted back at him? It's going to damage him.

I was right on why people should keep on laying Boris in the previous race, perhaps I'll be right again.
No I don't think so, since there's a reason he didn't publish those words and besides it isn't like Boris doesn't have a "colourful" back catalogue of words to be quoted back at him already.

The idea it is somehow shameful to try to think through both sides of the debate is terrible.
Iff Brexit does turn out be an economic mistake, who do you think voters will blame? Themselves or the politicians that persuaded them that Brexit was a good idea?

Or Europe - the already loathed institution.

Philip_Thompson · October 2016

JonathanD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

grabcocque said:
TSE mate

Let it go.

Trust me on this,

You'll feel better when you grieve and move on

Trust me

(Also please tell Mike there's no imminent Lib Dem resurgence. Love you bye)
I have moved on, my morning piece opens with this

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.
Or will it? We'll see. Once the economic disaster becomes obvious, enough of the public will change their minds. You may be losing faith a little too early Mr TSE.
Translation - with any luck those die-hard remoaners who sadly still occupy our corridors of power will manage to spook the bovine hordes into thinking their flatscreens are at risk if we ever leave. A really loathsome hope; I do congratulate you.
A little harsh I think. I am more interested in what might happen than being right about these things. As a betting site we speculate on the future.

My two pence worth is that the negotiations will be an utter mess, little will be agreed for months and months, the EU will drag its feet, the British have no clear idea where we want to get to, different parts of UK government will be arguing for different outcomes, the economic clouds will darken ( the rubbish about how wonderfully well we are doing post-Brexit is just that, rubbish - all these things have a time lag) and so on.
Also ING have announced it is relocating it's HQ to the City.

ING have not moved their HQ to London, they have moved several dozen currency trading related jobs to London as part of a global restructuring in which 7000 people are being made redundant. Its a level of desperation that this move is being made such a big deal of.

"The Netherlands’ biggest financial firm said currency, derivatives and interest rate traders will move from Brussels to London, along with some foreign exchange options, rates and fixed income staff from Amsterdam. Up to 60 people are thought to be affected by this plan"

60 traders is not upto 60 people. Support staff will follow too, though that figure has yet to be determined.

http://www.standard.co.uk/business/brexit-cheer-as-ing-traders-move-to-london-a3369236.html

Mortimer · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Disgraceful, grammar schools really do screw the poor.

Just 2.6% of grammar pupils are from poor backgrounds, new figures show

‘Shamefully’ dire record fuels criticism of May’s schools selection plans

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/oct/15/very-small-percentage-of-grammar-school-pupils-from-poorer-families-new-statistics-show?CMP=share_btn_tw
It's private schools that screw the poor.
Evidence?
They can't afford them.
But apart from a minor tax exemption, the poor aren't paying for private schools as they are with grammar schools.

Edit: And parents who are sending their kids to fee paying schools are doing the poor a favour, and making sure the government doesn't pay to educate their kids.

That money is spent on the poor kids.

I have no problem at all with fee paying schools.

But I do recognise how tin-earred it sounds to say to the poor that they cannot have the sort of aspiration that the elites can. The key to grammar schools is the aspirational factor.

This will never be disproved by 'useful' figures based on a now very small subset of the old grammar set up which happen to be in very wealthy areas.

Edit: Osbornite policy was often tin-earred - it alienated in it's smug superiority in a way Mayism doesn't at the moment....

Philip_Thompson · October 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Disgraceful, grammar schools really do screw the poor.

Just 2.6% of grammar pupils are from poor backgrounds, new figures show

‘Shamefully’ dire record fuels criticism of May’s schools selection plans

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/oct/15/very-small-percentage-of-grammar-school-pupils-from-poorer-families-new-statistics-show?CMP=share_btn_tw
It's private schools that screw the poor.
Evidence?
They can't afford them.
But apart from a minor tax exemption, the poor aren't paying for private schools as they are with grammar schools.

Edit: And parents who are sending their kids to fee paying schools are doing the poor a favour, and making sure the government doesn't pay to educate their kids.

That money is spent on the poor kids.

Are the poor paying taxes? I thought Osborne ensured they'd been taken out of tax.

Chris · October 2016

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

JennyFreeman said:

GIN1138 said:
We all know Boris was on a knife edge between Remain and Leave. Not sure why this should be news?
I think a lot of us were on a knife edge about it and genuinely wrestled with the pros and cons.
To the extent of writing a paean to EU membership, and then two days later declaring for Leave?

Why do people bend over backwards to make excuses for dishonest politicians?
Read the article in full, that's not what happened.
If I've got it wrong in any way, by all means explain.
You claim he wrote a "paean to EU membership" and implied he is a "dishonest politician". The article says "He had already penned one piece arguing the case for "out", then wrote the "remain" article as a way of clarifying his thoughts, before composing a final article backing Brexit for publication."

"The book dispels the myth that Johnson's case for "remain" was better than his argument to "leave". In fact the article was dashed off quickly and seems to be an attempt by Johnson to convince himself the case for staying in was weak."

Some "paean". Some "dishonesty". It is in fact standard rigorous procedure to test both hypothesis before coming to a conclusion. *rolleyes*

Just let me check that I understand your defence correctly.

You're saying that he didn't write a paean to EU membership because - although he did write an article praising EU membership to the skies, he didn't believe a word of it. And you're saying that he isn't a dishonest politician because - although he did write an article praising EU membership to the skies, he didn't believe a word of it.

I must admit I come from a scientific rather than a political background. But from that perspective, testing hypotheses is quite a different thing from writing articles chock-full of rubbish you don't believe, and circulating them to a wide audience.

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

Damn you Boris, I need more time to revise my morning thread.

Instead you're all getting a 100/1 tip thread in the morning

Philip_Thompson · October 2016

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

JennyFreeman said:

GIN1138 said:
We all know Boris was on a knife edge between Remain and Leave. Not sure why this should be news?
I think a lot of us were on a knife edge about it and genuinely wrestled with the pros and cons.
To the extent of writing a paean to EU membership, and then two days later declaring for Leave?

Why do people bend over backwards to make excuses for dishonest politicians?
Read the article in full, that's not what happened.
If I've got it wrong in any way, by all means explain.
You claim he wrote a "paean to EU membership" and implied he is a "dishonest politician". The article says "He had already penned one piece arguing the case for "out", then wrote the "remain" article as a way of clarifying his thoughts, before composing a final article backing Brexit for publication."

"The book dispels the myth that Johnson's case for "remain" was better than his argument to "leave". In fact the article was dashed off quickly and seems to be an attempt by Johnson to convince himself the case for staying in was weak."

Some "paean". Some "dishonesty". It is in fact standard rigorous procedure to test both hypothesis before coming to a conclusion. *rolleyes*
Just let me check that I understand your defence correctly.

You're saying that he didn't write a paean to EU membership because - although he did write an article praising EU membership to the skies, he didn't believe a word of it. And you're saying that he isn't a dishonest politician because - although he did write an article praising EU membership to the skies, he didn't believe a word of it.

I must admit I come from a scientific rather than a political background. But from that perspective, testing hypotheses is quite a different thing from writing articles chock-full of rubbish you don't believe, and circulating them to a wide audience.

Except he didn't "circulate them to a wide audience", he sent one article only to publication which was his finished piece. His original Brexit piece as revised following doing his own opposition piece.

Have you never tested a competing hypothesis or played devil's advocate? Are you a liar if you do either? He is a writer and did the literary equivalent.

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Disgraceful, grammar schools really do screw the poor.

Just 2.6% of grammar pupils are from poor backgrounds, new figures show

‘Shamefully’ dire record fuels criticism of May’s schools selection plans

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/oct/15/very-small-percentage-of-grammar-school-pupils-from-poorer-families-new-statistics-show?CMP=share_btn_tw
It's private schools that screw the poor.
Evidence?
They can't afford them.
But apart from a minor tax exemption, the poor aren't paying for private schools as they are with grammar schools.

Edit: And parents who are sending their kids to fee paying schools are doing the poor a favour, and making sure the government doesn't pay to educate their kids.

That money is spent on the poor kids.
I have no problem at all with fee paying schools.

But I do recognise how tin-earred it sounds to say to the poor that they cannot have the sort of aspiration that the elites can. The key to grammar schools is the aspirational factor.

This will never be disproved by 'useful' figures based on a now very small subset of the old grammar set up which happen to be in very wealthy areas.

Edit: Osbornite policy was often tin-earred - it alienated in it's smug superiority in a way Mayism doesn't at the moment....

I'm with Team Gove, the best thing you can for the poor and the aspiring classes is to improve the state sector schools.

Gove showed it is possible.

At conference you'd be surprised how many people said May's grammar school policies was tin eared, as they seemed to consistently ignore questions about what happens to the kids that don't get into the new grammar schools.

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