politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn the rebel has made the wrong call on the Article 50 vot

System · January 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn the rebel has made the wrong call on the Article 50 vote and his party will suffer ever more

So here we are. The Article 50 bill starts in the Commons with Mr. Corbyn ordering his MPs to back the Tories – something that is going to be remembered.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles · January 2017

Jez is crap, he's the worst strategist since Japan decided to attack the American Pacific fleet at Pearl Harbor to keep America out of WWII.

tlg86 · January 2017

Second.

MikeSmithson · January 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
Jez is crap, he's the worst strategist since Japan decided to attack the American Pacific fleet at Pearl Harbor to keep America out of WWII.

And you cannot polish a turd.

Roger · January 2017

Completely agree. The man's an idiot and in a stroke lost the last vestige of a reason to vote for him

DanSmith · January 2017

It's mad because the sort of person who voted Leave won't give credit to Corbyn for this, and they will raise an eyebrow at his stance on immigration.

FrancisUrquhart · January 2017

Let's make ~~America~~ new threads great again.

Philip_Thompson · January 2017

Seems like we should give more credit to the Agent Corbyn hypothesis.

Sunil_Prasannan · January 2017

Philip_Thompson said:
Seems like we should give more credit to the Agent Corbyn hypothesis.

Corbyn = Tory!!!!

williamglenn · January 2017

@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf

Richard_Nabavi · January 2017

No, Corbyn has taken the right path here. If Labour wanted to give themselves the freedom to ignore the result of the referendum, they should have opposed the European Union Referendum Bill 2015. It's too late now to decide that they don't like the result.

(The same goes for the LibDems, of course, but they'll get away with it).

Sunil_Prasannan · January 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
Jez is crap, he's the worst strategist since Pakistan decided to attack the Indian Air Force bases to keep India out of the Bangladesh War.

Roger · January 2017

Philip_Thompson said:
Seems like we should give more credit to the Agent Corbyn hypothesis.

Why would someone lose their most valuable USP? This won't gain him a single vote but it'll lose him hundreds of thousands. I really think the problem is that he's not very bright

wasd · January 2017

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Jez is crap, he's the worst strategist since Japan decided to attack the American Pacific fleet at Pearl Harbor to keep America out of WWII.
And you cannot polish a turd.

Oddly enough you can - Lloyds Bank Coprolite in York was, for a number of years, used as a hands-on museum exhibit and, after a while, developed a distinct sheen from all the handling.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2017

Roger said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Seems like we should give more credit to the Agent Corbyn hypothesis.
Why would someone lose their most valuable USP? This won't gain him a single vote but it'll lose him hundreds of thousands. I really think the problem is that he's not very bright

Time to replace him with the Cambridge educated Diane Abbott.

Morris_Dancer · January 2017

Incidentally, if the Netherlands, Germany, France and Austria have veil bans and elsewhere adopts such a ban, then the UK either does likewise or becomes, ahem, Mecca for those who prefer to wear the burkha.

I'd be surprised if numbers don't rapidly rise (again) unless such a ban occurs. but I don't see one happening.

SandyRentool · January 2017

Our policy is correct, and I am most happy that the majority of our MPs accept that the people have spoken, and parliament should reflect the result.

If I was in the CLP of a Labour MP who is voting against, I would be making a fuss.

Richard_Nabavi · January 2017

Either way Labour are stuffed, gratifyingly.

matt · January 2017

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Jez is crap, he's the worst strategist since Japan decided to attack the American Pacific fleet at Pearl Harbor to keep America out of WWII.
And you cannot polish a turd.

You can. But I recommend freezing it first.

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2017

williamglenn said:
@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf

Tusk declaring war on the US is hardly going to help remainers

rcs1000 · January 2017

Casino_Royale said:

Animal_pb said:

david_herdson said:

Animal_pb said:

david_herdson said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Animal_pb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.

There ain't no justice in the world.
Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?
The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.

Superb Justice Secretary.

President of the Cambridge Union.

Eminent QC

For starters.
Yet your party chose IDS over him. Why?
Because it didn't want either but IDS would be easier to get rid of. (Declaration of interest: I voted for Clarke).
That was a pretty weird moment: faced by the choice between IDS and Ken, I remember my reaction, essentially, being "oh, shit". Would you have voted for Portillo, if he'd got through?
Probably not. At least Clarke was authentic. Portillo had reinvented himself into something he didn't seem comfortable in. Besides, I wasn't as spooked by the prospect of Euro entry as many Tory members.
Fair enough. I think most of us were in the same camp as Casino; the Euro felt like an existential threat that trumped all other considerations. It still felt wrong voting for someone who, with the best will in the world, was never going to look like a PM in waiting, though.
Some Europhiles may laugh (fair enough) but there were several times I was in tears - and very stressed - in 2001-2003 when I thought we might permanently and irrevocably lose economic control of this country. I had a few screaming arguments with those who were in favour.

That far outweighed my preference for a cosmetic victory, or slightly less clear defeat, of the Conservative Party next to Blair's Labour Party following much the same policies at the time.

In the long run, I don't see any future for government controlled currencies.

This economic age will end when governments think they can solve every problem via the printing press (sorry, quantitive easing). The hyper-inflation that comes with that will destroy trust in government controlled currencies, and we will either return to the gold standard, or to something like Bitcoin.

Morris_Dancer · January 2017

Mr. Nabavi, not necessarily. A fresh challenge could topple Corbyn, and Labour would do rather better with another leader.

Dadge · January 2017

ever more or even more?

matt · January 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Seems like we should give more credit to the Agent Corbyn hypothesis.
Why would someone lose their most valuable USP? This won't gain him a single vote but it'll lose him hundreds of thousands. I really think the problem is that he's not very bright
Time to replace him with the Cambridge educated Diane Abbott.

Which brings us quickly back to turd polishing.

rkrkrk · January 2017

Far too early to say whether Corbyn has made the right or wrong call on this.
If Brexit is a shambles... I think the Tories will be blamed.

But I think Labour saying... We would have done a better brexit... Might well prove more persuasive than the lib Dems saying we told you so to the voters.

FrancisUrquhart · January 2017

wasd said:

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Jez is crap, he's the worst strategist since Japan decided to attack the American Pacific fleet at Pearl Harbor to keep America out of WWII.
And you cannot polish a turd.
Oddly enough you can - Lloyds Bank Coprolite in York was, for a number of years, used as a hands-on museum exhibit and, after a while, developed a distinct sheen from all the handling.

Learn something new everyday...

PlatoSaid · January 2017

Guido
This morning Khan told No10 to rescind Trump invite over travel ban. Tonight Khan hosts 11 nations with travel bans. https://t.co/Dnen5pTbzI https://t.co/xQuq2AHaOq

Sean_F · January 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:
@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf
Tusk declaring war on the US is hardly going to help remainers

It's a stupid letter. The Warsaw Pact in 1957 was a far greater threat than modern Russia, or populism in EU member States.

ThreeQuidder · January 2017

He's not backing the Tories. He's not even backing the government.

He's backing the public.

david_herdson · January 2017

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Jez is crap, he's the worst strategist since Japan decided to attack the American Pacific fleet at Pearl Harbor to keep America out of WWII.
And you cannot polish a turd.

You can cover it in glitter though.

Dromedary · January 2017

France: the polls say Macron will get knocked out in the first round, but in the betting markets he's favourite to win the presidency.

FrancisUrquhart · January 2017

david_herdson said:

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Jez is crap, he's the worst strategist since Japan decided to attack the American Pacific fleet at Pearl Harbor to keep America out of WWII.
And you cannot polish a turd.
You can cover it in glitter though.

Is that what those snowball cake things are?

david_herdson · January 2017

On topic, Labour were stuffed whatever they did. As a rule, respecting the views of the people while opposing all the detail is the right call. It is ironic that if Corbyn does fall over this, and he might, he'd have been toppled on just about the one issue where he's more in touch with the public and with Labour's lost voters than the PLP is.

Sean_F · January 2017

PlatoSaid said:
Guido
This morning Khan told No10 to rescind Trump invite over travel ban. Tonight Khan hosts 11 nations with travel bans. https://t.co/Dnen5pTbzI https://t.co/xQuq2AHaOq

The right sort of travel bans?

SimonStClare · January 2017

ThreeQuidder said:
He's not backing the Tories. He's not even backing the government.

He's backing the public.

Good point, unfortunately these minor points pass over many people's heads.

rcs1000 · January 2017

williamglenn said:
@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf

Not exactly stirring, is it?

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · January 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Seems like we should give more credit to the Agent Corbyn hypothesis.
Why would someone lose their most valuable USP? This won't gain him a single vote but it'll lose him hundreds of thousands. I really think the problem is that he's not very bright
Time to replace him with the Cambridge educated Diane Abbott.

I think Emily Thornberry would be the left's choice this time.
Diane, bless her, had her chance in 2010.
I'm not sure that the coalition in Hertsmere CLP of me and 10 other members are enough to get her over the line this time.

Animal_pb · January 2017

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Animal_pb said:

david_herdson said:

Animal_pb said:

david_herdson said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Animal_pb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
To think nomarks like Gordon Brown and Theresa May became PM but Ken Clarke never did.

There ain't no justice in the world.
Brown kept us out of the Euro (admittedly, just to spite Blair, but nonetheless, he did); May is taking us out of the EU. What, for all his gifts, did Clarke ever achieve?
The finest Chancellor of my lifetime.

Superb Justice Secretary.

President of the Cambridge Union.

Eminent QC

For starters.
Yet your party chose IDS over him. Why?
Because it didn't want either but IDS would be easier to get rid of. (Declaration of interest: I voted for Clarke).
That was a pretty weird moment: faced by the choice between IDS and Ken, I remember my reaction, essentially, being "oh, shit". Would you have voted for Portillo, if he'd got through?
Probably not. At least Clarke was authentic. Portillo had reinvented himself into something he didn't seem comfortable in. Besides, I wasn't as spooked by the prospect of Euro entry as many Tory members.
Fair enough. I think most of us were in the same camp as Casino; the Euro felt like an existential threat that trumped all other considerations. It still felt wrong voting for someone who, with the best will in the world, was never going to look like a PM in waiting, though.
Some Europhiles may laugh (fair enough) but there were several times I was in tears - and very stressed - in 2001-2003 when I thought we might permanently and irrevocably lose economic control of this country. I had a few screaming arguments with those who were in favour.

That far outweighed my preference for a cosmetic victory, or slightly less clear defeat, of the Conservative Party next to Blair's Labour Party following much the same policies at the time.
In the long run, I don't see any future for government controlled currencies.

This economic age will end when governments think they can solve every problem via the printing press (sorry, quantitive easing). The hyper-inflation that comes with that will destroy trust in government controlled currencies, and we will either return to the gold standard, or to something like Bitcoin.

As Keynes said, in the long run, we are all dead. I'm sure you're right, but I doubt anyone reading this thread will be alive to see it.

Stark_Dawning · January 2017

Quite right Mike. Some people seem to think that the Remain/Leave distinction is practically akin to the Protestant/Catholic one in Northern Ireland. Obvious nonsense. Why should your EU preference affect your voting intention after Brexit when it clearly had no effect during all the preceding years? The hard Right in particular is hijacking the Brexit majority as a way to smuggle in their own Trumpite agenda of darkness.

AndyJS · January 2017

Hendon and Finchley currently have the highest number of signatures on the pro-Trump e-petition:

http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=178844

SouthamObserver · January 2017

rkrkrk said:
Far too early to say whether Corbyn has made the right or wrong call on this.
If Brexit is a shambles... I think the Tories will be blamed.

But I think Labour saying... We would have done a better brexit... Might well prove more persuasive than the lib Dems saying we told you so to the voters.

The obvious position for Labour is to advocate the softest Brexit possible, while accepting that some MPs are not going to be able to vote to trigger Article 50. In the great scheme of things it is not a big deal, given that there is no chance the Commons will not vote for a trigger and the debate will soon move onto the kind of Brexit we are after and what we will get. That Corbyn has made such a mess of it is down to his abject leadership and the absolutely appalling advice he gets from those who surround him. Throw in his non-campaigning during the referendum and his long anti-European record, and the current shambles was always inevitable. A better leader would not have let it get to this stage - in fact, a better leader probably would have helped ensure a Remain win.

Dromedary · January 2017

Sean_F said:

PlatoSaid said:
Guido
This morning Khan told No10 to rescind Trump invite over travel ban. Tonight Khan hosts 11 nations with travel bans. https://t.co/Dnen5pTbzI https://t.co/xQuq2AHaOq
The right sort of travel bans?

Guido is Steve Bannon manqué?

Stark_Dawning said:
The hard Right in particular is hijacking the Brexit majority as a way to smuggle in their own Trumpite agenda of darkness.

Yes, they are - and not just in Britain.

Dutch election, 15 March. Wilders will be offered the chance to form a government. If he can't form one, it's unclear how long the caretaker period will last for. How will that play in France? "Far right wins election, but system won't let them take office?"

French election, 23 Apr and 7 May.

rcs1000 · January 2017

Animal_pb said:
As Keynes said, in the long run, we are all dead. I'm sure you're right, but I doubt anyone reading this thread will be alive to see it.

Oh, I see this happening in the next 15 years.

Read "When Money Dies"; it's amazing how quickly a government can destroy savings, and confidence in the institution of money itself.

My point, of course, is that governments having control of their money is really a very modern construct - existing briefly in the pre-War period, and then post Bretton-Woods.

Animal_pb · January 2017

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:
@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf
Tusk declaring war on the US is hardly going to help remainers
It's a stupid letter. The Warsaw Pact in 1957 was a far greater threat than modern Russia, or populism in EU member States.

You have to admire the EU's chutzpah, though. Their solution to all the ills of the early 21st century? More Europe.

Cannot see this ending well.

williamglenn · January 2017

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:
@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf
Not exactly stirring, is it?

But more credible as an appeal to be the global champion of free trade and the international order than Theresa May's.

Dadge · January 2017

Corbyn has done this simply because he's anti-EU and he has the right as party leader to impose a 3LW to enforce his opinions on the PLP. In that respect it's just one of many such clashes of opinion since he became leader. I think the jury's still out on whether the PLP will cope for another 3 years with this state of affairs.

PlatoSaid · January 2017

Dan
I just had to RT this...made me properly laugh out loud. I'm just researching to find out who my local Count is https://t.co/xLOzTeaFSy

>

Justin
.@aljwhite people in the U.K. Need to write their local Count or whatever the fuck they have that's like a senator/congressman.

rcs1000 · January 2017

Dromedary said:
France: the polls say Macron will get knocked out in the first round, but in the betting markets he's favourite to win the presidency.

The latest poll had him just 1% behind Fillon. I think the betting market is merely reflecting the fact that Fillon continues to have troubles, and whoever accompanies Marine Le Pen into the second round is likely to beat her.

SouthamObserver · January 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:
@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf
Tusk declaring war on the US is hardly going to help remainers

Am I looking at the wrong letter here? Where is the declaration of war? All I see is a statement of fact: the new US administration's approach to foreign policy breaks the post-war US consensus. What am I missing?

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2017

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:
@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf
Not exactly stirring, is it?
But more credible as an appeal to be the global champion of free trade and the international order than Theresa May's.

Didn't hear Theresa May declaring war on the US

rottenborough · January 2017

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Seems like we should give more credit to the Agent Corbyn hypothesis.
Why would someone lose their most valuable USP? This won't gain him a single vote but it'll lose him hundreds of thousands. I really think the problem is that he's not very bright
Time to replace him with the Cambridge educated Diane Abbott.
I think Emily Thornberry would be the left's choice this time.
Diane, bless her, had her chance in 2010.
I'm not sure that the coalition in Hertsmere CLP of me and 10 other members are enough to get her over the line this time.

That's two people today who have mentioned Thornberry as next leader, or at least the left's candidate.

I'm getting worried as I have a pile of bets on next lab leader, covering a load of possibles, but not Thornberry. Should I be reviewing my book?

rcs1000 · January 2017

Animal_pb said:

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:
@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf
Tusk declaring war on the US is hardly going to help remainers
It's a stupid letter. The Warsaw Pact in 1957 was a far greater threat than modern Russia, or populism in EU member States.
You have to admire the EU's chutzpah, though. Their solution to all the ills of the early 21st century? More Europe.

Cannot see this ending well.

Is it really that objectionable a letter?

Animal_pb · January 2017

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:
As Keynes said, in the long run, we are all dead. I'm sure you're right, but I doubt anyone reading this thread will be alive to see it.
Oh, I see this happening in the next 15 years.

Read "When Money Dies"; it's amazing how quickly a government can destroy savings, and confidence in the institution of money itself.

My point, of course, is that governments having control of their money is really a very modern construct - existing briefly in the pre-War period, and then post Bretton-Woods.

It's a little long for betting, really, but would you be up for a wager on that 15 year timeframe?

Morris_Dancer · January 2017

Miss Plato, that's a horrendous tweet. We don't have Counts, for pity's sake.

We have Earls.

david_herdson · January 2017

Dadge said:
Corbyn has done this simply because he's anti-EU and he has the right as party leader to impose a 3LW to enforce his opinions on the PLP. In that respect it's just one of many such clashes of opinion since he became leader. I think the jury's still out on whether the PLP will cope for another 3 years with this state of affairs.

One of Corbyn's many problems is that he has no moral right to impose any whip on his MPs after three decades of voting as he saw fit.

rcs1000 · January 2017

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:
As Keynes said, in the long run, we are all dead. I'm sure you're right, but I doubt anyone reading this thread will be alive to see it.
Oh, I see this happening in the next 15 years.

Read "When Money Dies"; it's amazing how quickly a government can destroy savings, and confidence in the institution of money itself.

My point, of course, is that governments having control of their money is really a very modern construct - existing briefly in the pre-War period, and then post Bretton-Woods.
It's a little long for betting, really, but would you be up for a wager on that 15 year timeframe?

We'll need to make the stakes something other than fiat money, otherwise I collect pretty much nothing on victory.

Richard_Nabavi · January 2017

SouthamObserver said:
... A better leader would not have let it get to this stage - in fact, a better leader probably would have helped ensure a Remain win.

Aye, that's a key point.

Stark_Dawning · January 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
Miss Plato, that's a horrendous tweet. We don't have Counts, for pity's sake.

We have Earls.

Why do we have countesses though?

SouthamObserver · January 2017

AndyJS said:
Hendon and Finchley currently have the highest number of signatures on the pro-Trump e-petition:

http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=178844

And in both constituencies thousands more have signed the No state visit petition.

Carolus_Rex · January 2017

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:
As Keynes said, in the long run, we are all dead. I'm sure you're right, but I doubt anyone reading this thread will be alive to see it.
Oh, I see this happening in the next 15 years.

Read "When Money Dies"; it's amazing how quickly a government can destroy savings, and confidence in the institution of money itself.

My point, of course, is that governments having control of their money is really a very modern construct - existing briefly in the pre-War period, and then post Bretton-Woods.
It's a little long for betting, really, but would you be up for a wager on that 15 year timeframe?
We'll need to make the stakes something other than fiat money, otherwise I collect pretty much nothing on victory.

Baked beans? Gold? Ammunition?

PlatoSaid · January 2017

Lolz

Kristen Andersen
I wonder how many Americans view this all as a sort of "organ rejection" with the body of Washington just refusing to accept the transplant.

david_herdson · January 2017

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:
As Keynes said, in the long run, we are all dead. I'm sure you're right, but I doubt anyone reading this thread will be alive to see it.
Oh, I see this happening in the next 15 years.

Read "When Money Dies"; it's amazing how quickly a government can destroy savings, and confidence in the institution of money itself.

Indeed. See Argentina. Once the sixth richest country by GDP per head in the world (perhaps relatedly, its cricket team declined in parallel).

Roger · January 2017

david_herdson said:
On topic, Labour were stuffed whatever they did. As a rule, respecting the views of the people while opposing all the detail is the right call. It is ironic that if Corbyn does fall over this, and he might, he'd have been toppled on just about the one issue where he's more in touch with the public and with Labour's lost voters than the PLP is.

Where is the evidence that this puts him more in touch with Labour's lost voters. From memory Labour voters were over 70% in favour of Remain. He's just done two imbecilic things at once. He's sold out over 70% of his supporters and he's confirmed what many already suspected; That he was never a Remainer in the first place.

Animal_pb · January 2017

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:
As Keynes said, in the long run, we are all dead. I'm sure you're right, but I doubt anyone reading this thread will be alive to see it.
Oh, I see this happening in the next 15 years.

Read "When Money Dies"; it's amazing how quickly a government can destroy savings, and confidence in the institution of money itself.

My point, of course, is that governments having control of their money is really a very modern construct - existing briefly in the pre-War period, and then post Bretton-Woods.
It's a little long for betting, really, but would you be up for a wager on that 15 year timeframe?
We'll need to make the stakes something other than fiat money, otherwise I collect pretty much nothing on victory.

Gold? In troy ounces (or fraction thereof, as the case may be)?

rcs1000 · January 2017

Carolus_Rex said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:
As Keynes said, in the long run, we are all dead. I'm sure you're right, but I doubt anyone reading this thread will be alive to see it.
Oh, I see this happening in the next 15 years.

Read "When Money Dies"; it's amazing how quickly a government can destroy savings, and confidence in the institution of money itself.

My point, of course, is that governments having control of their money is really a very modern construct - existing briefly in the pre-War period, and then post Bretton-Woods.
It's a little long for betting, really, but would you be up for a wager on that 15 year timeframe?
We'll need to make the stakes something other than fiat money, otherwise I collect pretty much nothing on victory.
Baked beans? Gold? Ammunition?

Interestingly, gold was utterly rubbish when Yugoslavia collapsed. The best thing to have had was a cellar full of cheap but drinkable red wine. That was easy to swap for food and medical supplies.

glw · January 2017

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:
@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf
Not exactly stirring, is it?

And the same old "more Europe" answer. You do have to wonder if there is anything that would ever persuade them that they might be wrong.

Morris_Dancer · January 2017

Mr. Dawning, I'm not sure, but I'd guess there's no female equivalent of Earl (or Jarl, the Scandinavian inspiration) but there is for a Count. So it became Earl and Countess.

rottenborough · January 2017

Ken:

"I am merely propounding the official policy of the Conservative party for 50 years until 23 June 2016."

Brilliant and true. What a state we have got ourselves into.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · January 2017

PlatoSaid said:
Dan
I just had to RT this...made me properly laugh out loud. I'm just researching to find out who my local Count is https://t.co/xLOzTeaFSy

>

Justin
.@aljwhite people in the U.K. Need to write their local Count or whatever the fuck they have that's like a senator/congressman.

They may be referring to Sesame Street?

Blue_rog · January 2017

Do we have a list of the amendments that will be voted on?

Carolus_Rex · January 2017

Stark_Dawning said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Miss Plato, that's a horrendous tweet. We don't have Counts, for pity's sake.

We have Earls.
Why do we have countesses though?

That's always puzzled me too. Because "Earless" sounds silly?

And another thing: is there such a thing as a female baronet?

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2017

SouthamObserver said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:
@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf
Tusk declaring war on the US is hardly going to help remainers

Am I looking at the wrong letter here? Where is the declaration of war? All I see is a statement of fact: the new US administration's approach to foreign policy breaks the post-war US consensus. What am I missing?

Donald Tusk said today that Trump's US is an external threat to the EU along with Russia, China , and Radical Islam

rcs1000 · January 2017

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:
As Keynes said, in the long run, we are all dead. I'm sure you're right, but I doubt anyone reading this thread will be alive to see it.
Oh, I see this happening in the next 15 years.

Read "When Money Dies"; it's amazing how quickly a government can destroy savings, and confidence in the institution of money itself.

My point, of course, is that governments having control of their money is really a very modern construct - existing briefly in the pre-War period, and then post Bretton-Woods.
It's a little long for betting, really, but would you be up for a wager on that 15 year timeframe?
We'll need to make the stakes something other than fiat money, otherwise I collect pretty much nothing on victory.
Gold? In troy ounces (or fraction thereof, as the case may be)?

Terms of the bet?

Inflation to exceed 100% in one calendar year in the next 15 in one of: GBP, USD, and JPY, and or to have average more than 50% over a three year period. What I think could be reasonably described as hyper-inflation.

rottenborough · January 2017

rcs1000 said:

Carolus_Rex said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:
As Keynes said, in the long run, we are all dead. I'm sure you're right, but I doubt anyone reading this thread will be alive to see it.
Oh, I see this happening in the next 15 years.

Read "When Money Dies"; it's amazing how quickly a government can destroy savings, and confidence in the institution of money itself.

My point, of course, is that governments having control of their money is really a very modern construct - existing briefly in the pre-War period, and then post Bretton-Woods.
It's a little long for betting, really, but would you be up for a wager on that 15 year timeframe?
We'll need to make the stakes something other than fiat money, otherwise I collect pretty much nothing on victory.
Baked beans? Gold? Ammunition?
Interestingly, gold was utterly rubbish when Yugoslavia collapsed. The best thing to have had was a cellar full of cheap but drinkable red wine. That was easy to swap for food and medical supplies.

I cellar full of guns came in handy as well.

peter_from_putney · January 2017

OFF TOPIC

"The Fixed Odds Betting Terminals All Party Parliamentary Group's report found that there is now a 'prima facie' case for significantly reducing the maximum stake that can be wagered on a fixed odds betting machine, putting forward a case for the maximum stake to be reduced to GBP2. The maximum stake currently stands at GBP100."

If these proposals were to come into force, I foresee at least half the country's betting shops closing down in double quick time.
These infernal thieving terminals are the only thing which is keeping thousands of them open.

As far as I'm concerned this can't happen quickly enough - small wonder that the bookies, seeing this coming have been panicked into shotgun mergers with Ladbrokes joining up with Corals and Paddy Power with Betfair. Has Wm Hill been left out in the cold I wonder?

rcs1000 · January 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:
@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf
Tusk declaring war on the US is hardly going to help remainers

Am I looking at the wrong letter here? Where is the declaration of war? All I see is a statement of fact: the new US administration's approach to foreign policy breaks the post-war US consensus. What am I missing?

Donald Tusk said today that Trump's US is an external threat to the EU along with Russia, China , and Radical Islam

"the change in Washington puts the European Union in a difficult situation; with the new administration seeming to put into question the last 70 years of American foreign policy."

Is that really a declaration of war? Or comparing it to Russia or Radical Islam?

TheScreamingEagles · January 2017

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Seems like we should give more credit to the Agent Corbyn hypothesis.
Why would someone lose their most valuable USP? This won't gain him a single vote but it'll lose him hundreds of thousands. I really think the problem is that he's not very bright
Time to replace him with the Cambridge educated Diane Abbott.
I think Emily Thornberry would be the left's choice this time.
Diane, bless her, had her chance in 2010.
I'm not sure that the coalition in Hertsmere CLP of me and 10 other members are enough to get her over the line this time.

Emily Thornberry as next Labour leader won't see me win £2,200 or so, Diane Abbott will.

If the Labour party has any sense, the next Labour leadership contest should consist of solely Diane Abbott, Ed Balls, Ed Miliband, and Richard Burgon.

The fact I've backed all four of those at 100/1 or plus is purely coincidential

Dadge · January 2017

The petition maps suggest to me that we're currently living in an Estuary-ocracy (better coinages welcome), which is a pretty remarkable victory for Farage, especially as his party is apparently powerless.

Animal_pb · January 2017

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:
As Keynes said, in the long run, we are all dead. I'm sure you're right, but I doubt anyone reading this thread will be alive to see it.
Oh, I see this happening in the next 15 years.

Read "When Money Dies"; it's amazing how quickly a government can destroy savings, and confidence in the institution of money itself.

My point, of course, is that governments having control of their money is really a very modern construct - existing briefly in the pre-War period, and then post Bretton-Woods.
It's a little long for betting, really, but would you be up for a wager on that 15 year timeframe?
We'll need to make the stakes something other than fiat money, otherwise I collect pretty much nothing on victory.
Gold? In troy ounces (or fraction thereof, as the case may be)?
Terms of the bet?

Inflation to exceed 100% in one calendar year in the next 15 in one of: GBP, USD, and JPY, and or to have average more than 50% over a three year period. What I think could be reasonably described as hyper-inflation.

That's 50% per annum, yes?

Dromedary · January 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Seems like we should give more credit to the Agent Corbyn hypothesis.
Why would someone lose their most valuable USP? This won't gain him a single vote but it'll lose him hundreds of thousands. I really think the problem is that he's not very bright
Time to replace him with the Cambridge educated Diane Abbott.

Diane Abbott got her history BA at Cambridge (she didn't fail or drop out), and she's crap at the subject. Those who want to promote Cambridge University would be best advised not to use her as their poster girl.

"From the days when the Norman French invaded Anglo-Saxon Britain, we have been a culturally diverse nation. But because the different nationalities shared a common skin colour, it was possible to ignore the racial diversity which always existed in the British Isles. And even if you take race to mean what it is often commonly meant to imply - skin colour- there have been black people in Britain for centuries. The earliest blacks in Britain were probably black Roman centurions that came over hundreds of years before Christ."

rcs1000 · January 2017

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:
As Keynes said, in the long run, we are all dead. I'm sure you're right, but I doubt anyone reading this thread will be alive to see it.
Oh, I see this happening in the next 15 years.

Read "When Money Dies"; it's amazing how quickly a government can destroy savings, and confidence in the institution of money itself.

My point, of course, is that governments having control of their money is really a very modern construct - existing briefly in the pre-War period, and then post Bretton-Woods.
It's a little long for betting, really, but would you be up for a wager on that 15 year timeframe?
We'll need to make the stakes something other than fiat money, otherwise I collect pretty much nothing on victory.
Gold? In troy ounces (or fraction thereof, as the case may be)?
Terms of the bet?

Inflation to exceed 100% in one calendar year in the next 15 in one of: GBP, USD, and JPY, and or to have average more than 50% over a three year period. What I think could be reasonably described as hyper-inflation.
That's 50% per annum, yes?

Yes.

BTC or gold?

Morris_Dancer · January 2017

Mr. Dromedary, was she a classmate (coursemate?) of Mr. Eagles?

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2017

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:
@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf
Tusk declaring war on the US is hardly going to help remainers

Am I looking at the wrong letter here? Where is the declaration of war? All I see is a statement of fact: the new US administration's approach to foreign policy breaks the post-war US consensus. What am I missing?

Donald Tusk said today that Trump's US is an external threat to the EU along with Russia, China , and Radical Islam
"the change in Washington puts the European Union in a difficult situation; with the new administration seeming to put into question the last 70 years of American foreign policy."

Is that really a declaration of war? Or comparing it to Russia or Radical Islam?

Siting the US as an external threat to the EU the same as Russia, China, and the Islasmic State is inciting conflict

bigjohnowls · January 2017

rottenborough said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Seems like we should give more credit to the Agent Corbyn hypothesis.
Why would someone lose their most valuable USP? This won't gain him a single vote but it'll lose him hundreds of thousands. I really think the problem is that he's not very bright
Time to replace him with the Cambridge educated Diane Abbott.
I think Emily Thornberry would be the left's choice this time.
Diane, bless her, had her chance in 2010.
I'm not sure that the coalition in Hertsmere CLP of me and 10 other members are enough to get her over the line this time.

That's two people today who have mentioned Thornberry as next leader, or at least the left's candidate.

I'm getting worried as I have a pile of bets on next lab leader, covering a load of possibles, but not Thornberry. Should I be reviewing my book?

I will vote for Angela Rayner if she is on the ballot.

Scott_P · January 2017

https://twitter.com/zorasuleman/status/826462664960376832

PlatoSaid · January 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
Miss Plato, that's a horrendous tweet. We don't have Counts, for pity's sake.

We have Earls.

If you're called Earl Duke - you'd be cast in a remake of Dallas.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Dromedary, was she a classmate (coursemate?) of Mr. Eagles?

I'm not that old.

I'm not even 40. I was 8 when Diane Abbott became an MP

david_herdson · January 2017

Carolus_Rex said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:
As Keynes said, in the long run, we are all dead. I'm sure you're right, but I doubt anyone reading this thread will be alive to see it.
Oh, I see this happening in the next 15 years.

Read "When Money Dies"; it's amazing how quickly a government can destroy savings, and confidence in the institution of money itself.

My point, of course, is that governments having control of their money is really a very modern construct - existing briefly in the pre-War period, and then post Bretton-Woods.
It's a little long for betting, really, but would you be up for a wager on that 15 year timeframe?
We'll need to make the stakes something other than fiat money, otherwise I collect pretty much nothing on victory.
Baked beans? Gold? Ammunition?

I'm fairly sure that PB has seen at least one bet for the sum of a gold sovereign.

glw · January 2017

SeanT said:

glw said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:
@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf
Not exactly stirring, is it?
And the same old "more Europe" answer. You do have to wonder if there is anything that would ever persuade them that they might be wrong.
No. As I tried, so patiently, to explain to dear old ScottP, his Europeanism is a belief system. It is not susceptible to argumentation and logical dispute. The answer will always be More Europe just as the answer for Islamic fundamentalists is ever greater adherence to the strictest interpretation of the hadiths.

Mind you it is nice of Tusk to spell out where the EU is headed. The idea that the UK could conformably remain in the EU looks increasingly absurd if it is going to see much more integration and federalise.

Pong · January 2017

peter_from_putney said:
OFF TOPIC

"The Fixed Odds Betting Terminals All Party Parliamentary Group's report found that there is now a 'prima facie' case for significantly reducing the maximum stake that can be wagered on a fixed odds betting machine, putting forward a case for the maximum stake to be reduced to GBP2. The maximum stake currently stands at GBP100."

If these proposals were to come into force, I foresee at least half the country's betting shops closing down in double quick time.
These infernal thieving terminals are the only thing which is keeping thousands of them open.

As far as I'm concerned this can't happen quickly enough - small wonder that the bookies, seeing this coming have been panicked into shotgun mergers with Ladbrokes joining up with Corals and Paddy Power with Betfair. Has Wm Hill been left out in the cold I wonder?

At least half.

From what I can tell the majority of the bricks and mortar bookies are only viable thanks to the FOBT's.

david_herdson · January 2017

Roger said:

david_herdson said:
On topic, Labour were stuffed whatever they did. As a rule, respecting the views of the people while opposing all the detail is the right call. It is ironic that if Corbyn does fall over this, and he might, he'd have been toppled on just about the one issue where he's more in touch with the public and with Labour's lost voters than the PLP is.
Where is the evidence that this puts him more in touch with Labour's lost voters. From memory Labour voters were over 70% in favour of Remain. He's just done two imbecilic things at once. He's sold out over 70% of his supporters and he's confirmed what many already suspected; That he was never a Remainer in the first place.

I shall provide it in a future post, once I've had time to crunch the numbers (so I am, I'll admit, working off an impression of the stats, buttressed by anecdote at the moment).

Morris_Dancer · January 2017

Mr. Eagles, one apologises unreservedly.

Mr. Herdson, but doesn't the value vary according to the year?

Edited extra bit: the year of the coin being struck, I mean.

rcs1000 · January 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:
@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf
Tusk declaring war on the US is hardly going to help remainers

Am I looking at the wrong letter here? Where is the declaration of war? All I see is a statement of fact: the new US administration's approach to foreign policy breaks the post-war US consensus. What am I missing?

Donald Tusk said today that Trump's US is an external threat to the EU along with Russia, China , and Radical Islam
"the change in Washington puts the European Union in a difficult situation; with the new administration seeming to put into question the last 70 years of American foreign policy."

Is that really a declaration of war? Or comparing it to Russia or Radical Islam?
Siting the US as an external threat to the EU the same as Russia, China, and the Islasmic State is inciting conflict

I'm sorry, but you are reading too much into that. That sentence - which is basically the only time he mentions the US in the whole banal, boring letter - is no more than a statement of the obvious.

The US was once massively in favour of multinational organisations like NATO and the WTO, and that is no longer the case. I don't think that is disputable.

FrancisUrquhart · January 2017

glw said:

SeanT said:

glw said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:
@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf
Not exactly stirring, is it?
And the same old "more Europe" answer. You do have to wonder if there is anything that would ever persuade them that they might be wrong.
No. As I tried, so patiently, to explain to dear old ScottP, his Europeanism is a belief system. It is not susceptible to argumentation and logical dispute. The answer will always be More Europe just as the answer for Islamic fundamentalists is ever greater adherence to the strictest interpretation of the hadiths.
Mind you it is nice of Tusk to spell out where the EU is headed. The idea that the UK could conformably remain in the EU looks increasingly absurd if it is going to see much more integration and federalise.

A vote to remain would never (as sold during the campaign) been a vote for the status quo.

Animal_pb · January 2017

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:
As Keynes said, in the long run, we are all dead. I'm sure you're right, but I doubt anyone reading this thread will be alive to see it.
Oh, I see this happening in the next 15 years.

Read "When Money Dies"; it's amazing how quickly a government can destroy savings, and confidence in the institution of money itself.

My point, of course, is that governments having control of their money is really a very modern construct - existing briefly in the pre-War period, and then post Bretton-Woods.
It's a little long for betting, really, but would you be up for a wager on that 15 year timeframe?
We'll need to make the stakes something other than fiat money, otherwise I collect pretty much nothing on victory.
Gold? In troy ounces (or fraction thereof, as the case may be)?
Terms of the bet?

Inflation to exceed 100% in one calendar year in the next 15 in one of: GBP, USD, and JPY, and or to have average more than 50% over a three year period. What I think could be reasonably described as hyper-inflation.
That's 50% per annum, yes?
Yes.

BTC or gold?

I'm old-fashioned. Call it the ask price of one troy ounce of gold, in whatever reasonable currency the winner specifies when the bet crystallises. If any of the conditions are met before 15 years has elapsed, you win; if not, you pay me on the 15th anniversary of this bet.

williamglenn · January 2017

rcs1000 said:
The US was once massively in favour of multinational organisations like NATO and the WTO, and that is no longer the case. I don't think that is disputable.

The US is 100% behind them or Theresa May's a Dutchwoman.

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2017

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:
@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf
Tusk declaring war on the US is hardly going to help remainers

Am I looking at the wrong letter here? Where is the declaration of war? All I see is a statement of fact: the new US administration's approach to foreign policy breaks the post-war US consensus. What am I missing?

Donald Tusk said today that Trump's US is an external threat to the EU along with Russia, China , and Radical Islam
"the change in Washington puts the European Union in a difficult situation; with the new administration seeming to put into question the last 70 years of American foreign policy."

Is that really a declaration of war? Or comparing it to Russia or Radical Islam?
Siting the US as an external threat to the EU the same as Russia, China, and the Islasmic State is inciting conflict
I'm sorry, but you are reading too much into that. That sentence - which is basically the only time he mentions the US in the whole banal, boring letter - is no more than a statement of the obvious.

The US was once massively in favour of multinational organisations like NATO and the WTO, and that is no longer the case. I don't think that is disputable.

It wasnt the letter it was in a release from him today and has been reported on Sky

rcs1000 · January 2017

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:

rcs1000 said:

Animal_pb said:
As Keynes said, in the long run, we are all dead. I'm sure you're right, but I doubt anyone reading this thread will be alive to see it.
Oh, I see this happening in the next 15 years.

Read "When Money Dies"; it's amazing how quickly a government can destroy savings, and confidence in the institution of money itself.

My point, of course, is that governments having control of their money is really a very modern construct - existing briefly in the pre-War period, and then post Bretton-Woods.
It's a little long for betting, really, but would you be up for a wager on that 15 year timeframe?
We'll need to make the stakes something other than fiat money, otherwise I collect pretty much nothing on victory.
Gold? In troy ounces (or fraction thereof, as the case may be)?
Terms of the bet?

Inflation to exceed 100% in one calendar year in the next 15 in one of: GBP, USD, and JPY, and or to have average more than 50% over a three year period. What I think could be reasonably described as hyper-inflation.
That's 50% per annum, yes?
Yes.

BTC or gold?
I'm old-fashioned. Call it the ask price of one troy ounce of gold, in whatever reasonable currency the winner specifies when the bet crystallises. If any of the conditions are met before 15 years has elapsed, you win; if not, you pay me on the 15th anniversary of this bet.

Oh go on then

I'll drop you an email.

AlsoIndigo · January 2017

SouthamObserver said:

AndyJS said:
Hendon and Finchley currently have the highest number of signatures on the pro-Trump e-petition:

http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=178844

And in both constituencies thousands more have signed the No state visit petition.

Or at least a couple of teenagers in their mum's basement with a PC and a copy of "Python Cookbook" have.

FPT:

AlsoIndigo said:

Jason said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/parlyapp/status/826447033523400704
If we must indulge these moronic petitions, is there a way in which we can at least find out how many individual signatures there have been, as opposed to a few thousand nutters using multiple email addresses? All it would take is 10,000 with 10 email addresses, and hey presto, our elected representatives have to use their precious time 'debating' the subject. These petitions are the continued infantilisation of discourse in this country, and indeed right across the democratic West.
Its probably worse than you think, on the EU second referendum petition there was evidence shown that several tens of thousands of entries (at the least) were entered as part of a wheeze by some bunch of muppets from 4chan. As a measure of the support of one side of the other its almost worthless, a few IT literate people on either side will completely throw the result.

On websites the government actually cares about, authentication is much stronger, mostly requiring you to enter an identifying number (such as NI No, Driving License No, Passport No etc) that the government knows, but which is generally speaking not public knowledge, and can be tied to one individual and mostly, one address.

The petition website is conspicuously there to give people the impression that they were being listened to without any real risk of having to change policy as a result, almost the opposite of a referendum

SouthamObserver · January 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:
@Pulpstar - This is Tusk's open letter - http://www.consilium.europa.eu/press-releases-pdf/2017/1/47244654122_en.pdf
Tusk declaring war on the US is hardly going to help remainers

Am I looking at the wrong letter here? Where is the declaration of war? All I see is a statement of fact: the new US administration's approach to foreign policy breaks the post-war US consensus. What am I missing?

Donald Tusk said today that Trump's US is an external threat to the EU along with Russia, China , and Radical Islam

Read the letter - he states a self-evident truth.

PlatoSaid · January 2017

Video

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