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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lucian Fletcher on the latest Northern Ireland assembly poll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lucian Fletcher on the latest Northern Ireland assembly poll
The heat is on… Exclusive insight on state of play for parties ahead of crucial March 2nd vote #AE17 @LucidTalk https://t.co/CpXUbu1rLR
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https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/827107069551587328
The New Dawn posts on Twitter are good, news summaries from 1997. Oddly enough EU & UK relations keep cropping up.
Though their pollster got their exit poll on the EU ref spot on.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/steve-bannon-sean-spicer-michael-flynn-and-trump-who-heard-malcolm-turnbulls-phone-call-20170202-gu3zo9.html
If it is true, the Betfair price is a steal and UKIP should prob be down to 1.4-1.5 off the back of this poll.
PS: I don't think Stokies could give two flying figs whether Nuttall lives in that house or not. Even assuming they hear it (most won't) everyone knows he's a national leader and not local.
If U.C. Berkeley does not allow free speech and practices violence on innocent people with a different point of view - NO FEDERAL FUNDS?
A national general strike across the US is being called for 17 February – the Friday before President's Day – as a way of protesting the new administration.
Those behind the strike hope that they can cause enough disruption to bring about change in the political system.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-general-strike-us-president-day-when-activists-national-facebook-twitter-a7558851.html
Very sad to hear of the death overnight of Desmond Carrington. He was a radio broadcaster for 70 years and continued to present his Music Goes Around show on Radio 2 until well past his 90th Birthday only stopping last October.
A voice from another era but always a welcome friend on a Friday night.
RIP Mr Carrington
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/827112108936589313
In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
you must mean socially conservative.
People get that in a way they don't get/care about due process.
All we've had is that facebook poll and now this.
I think we know what conclusion to infer from that.
I thought she was 'wisely biding her time (she wasn't - Trump didn't return her calls pleading to visit as soon as) and was now the 'leader of the Liberal West' (who wants to ban Burkas)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bif7PmlIHwc
Democrats, no, that's not it.....
https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/827117737080213505/photo/1
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/827119326880813056
https://youtu.be/-Mg8AVpe6rY
Hurrah for constitutional crises
I think the key factors that will determine the winner is where is the Brexit debate regarding media coverage in 2 to 3 weeks, and how metropolitan and toxic is Corbyn to people in Stoke. I'm not touching the betting markets but my head says Labour on a low turnout because I don't think any of these UKIP favouring polls carry any weight.
Mr. Royale, HM has mastered the ancient and underrated skill of knowing how to be quiet.
He's acquired a number of certainties in his life about how the world works, absolutely believes he's right and - to put it mildly - doesn't exactly relish challenge upon them.
He brings out the Roundhead in me.
You can count the number of months till all the remaining Commonwealth Realms bugger off on the fingers of one hand.
Sargon of Akkad
Jesus Christ, this lunatic is actually calling for a fucking coup. https://t.co/jBqVzlBuSO
Sarah Silverman
WAKE UP & JOIN THE RESISTANCE. ONCE THE MILITARY IS W US FASCISTS GET OVERTHROWN. MAD KING & HIS HANDLERS GO BYE BYE https://t.co/Y2WZbL012A
From a psychological point of view I can imagine in a place like Stoke where people vote Labour no matter what for generation after generation it might be an effective tactic to tell people that the masses are voting UKIP this time instead in order to break the cycle and hope some kind of groupthink will push people towards the purples.
Unlike in a lot of constituencies I don't think having UKIP ahead will motivate Labour voters to come out in droves to keep out Nuttall. The Labour vote is diminishing, old school and clearly quite soft in Stoke & very different to the 'stop the right at all costs' sort of Labour voter we see in London and Brighton.
I'd suggest that a change is needed, though I suspect that it wouldn't be politically possible at the moment, so that a government can be formed as long as it:
- Contains both unionist and nationalist designations.
- Contains parties representing at least one-third of both nationalist and unionist designations
- Contains parties representing at least one-half of the Assembly.
A party shouldn't be able to bring the Assembly down if there's a viable cross-community alternative.
BREAKING: Shiner guilty over Iraqi claims https://t.co/nMUhzm9Wvb
England is one country over a thousand years old. London has been pre-eminent for perhaps 800 years or more. The Scottish example is a perfect one of how devolution can lead to division (and might easily lead to separation).
Imagine we have a Yorkshire Parliament and a London Parliament. Demagogues get elected. Yorkshire's tinpot king claims we aren't getting the same spending per head as London, that's unfair (true). London's tinpot king claims the city exports tax revenues and gets criticism rather than praise, and that's time for more to be spent on the city (also true).
It'd stoke up political division and discord by entrenching it in the institutions of government. It'd also be bloody stupid given what's happened between Holyrood and Westminster. Not to mention that England isn't the property of politicians to be carved into petty fiefdoms. Was Scotland divided into Lowlands, Highlands and Islands? Did anyone even suggest that?
I'm English, and I don't want England carving into pieces.
On topic, I expect that in reality, the DUP vote share will hardly be affected.
Overall, I'd expect a result like DUP 31, UUP 14, TUV 1, Alliance 8, Sinn Fein 22, SDLP 12, PBP 1, Green 1.
http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/thousands-of-students-may-be-barred-from-voting-in-stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/story-30097835-detail/story.html
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15066076.Higher_taxes_agreed_in_SNP_Green_budget_deal/?ref=twtrec