If i detect it's just core Remainers looking to ditch May, I will smell a rat and start to tack back to her.
= the parlous state of the Conservative Party in one PB post.
It’s a sorry state of affairs. Talk about bring between a rock and a hard place.
tbf @Casino is pretty flaky; it was only a few weeks ago that he was packing his bags in advance of Labour forming a govt after the GE result was announced.
I'm not flaky at all.
But, it is a Corbyn administration that could cause me to re-evaluate my options.
How would you describe wanting to flee the country when one particular administration is democratically voted into government by the people of that country?
Prudent.
I'm sure the frictional costs of moving to Svalbard would account for all the diminution of wealth that Jezza would impose upon you.
"So I was just doing some basic sums. A little under 92% of Catalan voters who turned out yesterday voted in favour of independence. The overall turnout, suppressed by Spanish state violence, was 42.3%. This means that roughly 38% of the entire registered electorate voted Yes. You could therefore take the turnout all the way up to 75% (not all that far short of what was achieved in the free and semi-fair Scottish referendum), and still be guaranteed of a Yes victory even if all the extra voters were No voters, which would obviously be extremely unlikely. In reality, even a turnout in the low 80s would almost certainly have produced a Yes majority."
Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.
The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.
Conservative Party Leavers want a Brexit that means Brexit and they want a Brexit success. The two are incompatible. It's possible they will go for the outer space option, bitterly blaming the EU as they go. Before too long someone - maybe not them - will decide the mess needs sorting out and will do a deal with the EU on their terms. The rational thing would be to do the deal now, avoid the mess and declare semi-plausibly that Brexit was a success. (Perhaps even better - abandon a course of action that harms ourselves). This lot are in denial and aren't thinking straight.
I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?
Really that's missing the point. We aren't starting from zero. Our economy is set up as an EU member and has evolved that way over more than a generation inside the Community/Union. The issue now is the extent of both the temporary and permanent damage that will be done as we go through an unplanned shock exit - i.e. what proportion of our economic and political strength remains once the dust has settled.
The article is 2 1/2 years old and about formal methods in s/w, which have been around decades. The new bit seems to be that Amazon actually use them in non-safety s/w, like AWS cloud stuff and have found it not too demanding.
Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.
The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.
Conservative Party Leavers want a Brexit that means Brexit and they want a Brexit success. The two are incompatible. It's possible they will go for the outer space option, bitterly blaming the EU as they go. Before too long someone - maybe not them - will decide the mess needs sorting out and will do a deal with the EU on their terms. The rational thing would be to do the deal now, avoid the mess and declare semi-plausibly that Brexit was a success. (Perhaps even better - abandon a course of action that harms ourselves). This lot are in denial and aren't thinking straight.
I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?
I am arguing there is no pathway from membership of the EU to a decent eventual settlement, that doesn't involve us making an agreement with the EU on their terms. With the Brexit vote carried on the slimmest of margins and with the promise that it would be cost-free, there is no mandate or will for a "what it takes" Brexit. If Conservative Party Leavers don't deliver that pain-free Brexit, voters will go elsewhere.
That being so, the eventual outcomes will either be pseudo-Brexit where Britain operates as a client of the EU rather than as a participating member, or there will be a return to full membership. I think the first is more likely. People have a high tolerance of mediocrity.
"So I was just doing some basic sums. A little under 92% of Catalan voters who turned out yesterday voted in favour of independence. The overall turnout, suppressed by Spanish state violence, was 42.3%. This means that roughly 38% of the entire registered electorate voted Yes. You could therefore take the turnout all the way up to 75% (not all that far short of what was achieved in the free and semi-fair Scottish referendum), and still be guaranteed of a Yes victory even if all the extra voters were No voters, which would obviously be extremely unlikely. In reality, even a turnout in the low 80s would almost certainly have produced a Yes majority."
1) Not that the 'only 37% of the electorate' Remoaner brigade deserve the time of day, but it is interesting that the % of the electorate voting Yes in Catalonia was higher than % voting Leave in Britain.
2) Given the allegations of multiple voting, the turnout figure should be taken with a pinch of salt.
If Mrs May survives the next week then she’s here to stay until 2019.
Not necessarily, she might well screw it up again. She's not very good and the team behind her is even worse. 2018 local elections could be a massacre.
Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.
The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.
Conservative Party Leavers want a Brexit that means Brexit and they want a Brexit success. The two are incompatible. It's possible they will go for the outer space option, bitterly blaming the EU as they go. Before too long someone - maybe not them - will decide the mess needs sorting out and will do a deal with the EU on their terms. The rational thing would be to do the deal now, avoid the mess and declare semi-plausibly that Brexit was a success. (Perhaps even better - abandon a course of action that harms ourselves). This lot are in denial and aren't thinking straight.
I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?
I am arguing there is no pathway from membership of the EU to a decent eventual settlement, that doesn't involve us making an agreement with the EU on their terms. With the Brexit vote carried on the slimmest of margins and with the promise that it would be cost-free, there is no mandate or will for a "what it takes" Brexit. If Conservative Party Leavers don't deliver that pain-free Brexit, voters will go elsewhere.
That being so, the eventual outcomes will either be pseudo-Brexit where Britain operates as a client of the EU rather than as a participating member, or there will be a return to full membership. I think the first is more likely. People have a high tolerance of mediocrity.
So there you have it - "The EU is a prison". You can check out any time you like but you can never leave
Atleast one good thing that's come out of the last few months is that poor Brown can give some comfort to his tormented soul now: he can stop regretting not calling that snap election.
I'm still convinced he should have gone for it. Likewise, had May gone for an October 2016 election.
If you're a new PM, you have a window of about four-five months to call an election and dress it up as 'seeking your own mandate' whilst hopefully keeping the bounce in the polls both got for their parties immediately after taking charge (they're not hard to see - just look at UKPR). Any accusations of being opportunistic can be deflected as 'I've gone to get my own mandate as soon as reasonably possible'.
Of course, May may (ho ho ho) have ended up in the same situation (poor campaign, unable to engage with voters) in an October 2016 election, but arguably it would have been better doing this BEFORE activating Article 50.
@PolhomeEditor: Tory MP tells me an ex-Cabinet minister is a "ringleader"of the anti-May plot. They now believe she'll be gone before Brexit in March 2019.
I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?
I am arguing there is no pathway from membership of the EU to a decent eventual settlement, that doesn't involve us making an agreement with the EU on their terms. With the Brexit vote carried on the slimmest of margins and with the promise that it would be cost-free, there is no mandate or will for a "what it takes" Brexit. If Conservative Party Leavers don't deliver that pain-free Brexit, voters will go elsewhere.
That being so, the eventual outcomes will either be pseudo-Brexit where Britain operates as a client of the EU rather than as a participating member, or there will be a return to full membership. I think the first is more likely. People have a high tolerance of mediocrity.
So there you have it - "The EU is a prison". You can check out any time you like but you can never leave
That doesn't get you anywhere. People want a decent standard of living and want the politicians to sort the tricky stuff out. Perhaps the Leave campaign should have thought about where they were going to check out to before throwing the room keys away? I have lived in my house for more than twenty years, not because it is a prison, but because it works for me and I like it.
I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?
I am arguing there is no pathway from membership of the EU to a decent eventual settlement, that doesn't involve us making an agreement with the EU on their terms. With the Brexit vote carried on the slimmest of margins and with the promise that it would be cost-free, there is no mandate or will for a "what it takes" Brexit. If Conservative Party Leavers don't deliver that pain-free Brexit, voters will go elsewhere.
That being so, the eventual outcomes will either be pseudo-Brexit where Britain operates as a client of the EU rather than as a participating member, or there will be a return to full membership. I think the first is more likely. People have a high tolerance of mediocrity.
So there you have it - "The EU is a prison". You can check out any time you like but you can never leave
That doesn't get you anywhere. People want a decent standard of living and want the politicians to sort the tricky stuff out. Perhaps the Leave campaign should have thought about where they were going to check out to before throwing the room keys away? I have lived in my house for more than twenty years, not because it is a prison, but because it works for me and I like it.
People aren't a stupid as you think they are. They actually have an opinion on how, who and for what end their country should be run.
Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.
The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.
Conservative Party Leavers want a Brexit that means Brexit and they want a Brexit success. The two are incompatible. It's possible they will go for the outer space option, bitterly blaming the EU as they go. Before too long someone - maybe not them - will decide the mess needs sorting out and will do a deal with the EU on their terms. The rational thing would be to do the deal now, avoid the mess and declare semi-plausibly that Brexit was a success. (Perhaps even better - abandon a course of action that harms ourselves). This lot are in denial and aren't thinking straight.
I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?
I am arguing there is no pathway from membership of the EU to a decent eventual settlement, that doesn't involve us making an agreement with the EU on their terms. With the Brexit vote carried on the slimmest of margins and with the promise that it would be cost-free, there is no mandate or will for a "what it takes" Brexit. If Conservative Party Leavers don't deliver that pain-free Brexit, voters will go elsewhere.
That being so, the eventual outcomes will either be pseudo-Brexit where Britain operates as a client of the EU rather than as a participating member, or there will be a return to full membership. I think the first is more likely. People have a high tolerance of mediocrity.
So there you have it - "The EU is a prison". You can check out any time you like but you can never leave
If the EU was a healthy organisation it would be relaxed about members leaving, because the benefits would speak for themselves.
@PolhomeEditor: Tory MP tells me an ex-Cabinet minister is a "ringleader"of the anti-May plot. They now believe she'll be gone before Brexit in March 2019.
That could be in a week or in 18 months. Surely we cannot change PMs too close to March 2019 when the deal is going through Parliament and the 27 other member states. Assuming there is a deal.
I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?
I am arguing there is no pathway from membership of the EU to a decent eventual settlement, that doesn't involve us making an agreement with the EU on their terms. With the Brexit vote carried on the slimmest of margins and with the promise that it would be cost-free, there is no mandate or will for a "what it takes" Brexit. If Conservative Party Leavers don't deliver that pain-free Brexit, voters will go elsewhere.
That being so, the eventual outcomes will either be pseudo-Brexit where Britain operates as a client of the EU rather than as a participating member, or there will be a return to full membership. I think the first is more likely. People have a high tolerance of mediocrity.
So there you have it - "The EU is a prison". You can check out any time you like but you can never leave
That doesn't get you anywhere. People want a decent standard of living and want the politicians to sort the tricky stuff out. Perhaps the Leave campaign should have thought about where they were going to check out to before throwing the room keys away? I have lived in my house for more than twenty years, not because it is a prison, but because it works for me and I like it.
And, we voted Leave because it didn't work for us and we didn't like it.
Mr. E, if we end up remaining, particularly without a referendum/election to that effect, there could be some democratic turbulence.
The electorate wasn't asked at any stage (save a post-joining referendum on joining the EEC) as powers were thrown away, even when a referendum had been promised (Lisbon), and now the political and media class is complaining that we're really integrated and leaving is difficult.
Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.
The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.
Conservative Party Leavers want a Brexit that means Brexit and they want a Brexit success. The two are incompatible. It's possible they will go for the outer space option, bitterly blaming the EU as they go. Before too long someone - maybe not them - will decide the mess needs sorting out and will do a deal with the EU on their terms. The rational thing would be to do the deal now, avoid the mess and declare semi-plausibly that Brexit was a success. (Perhaps even better - abandon a course of action that harms ourselves). This lot are in denial and aren't thinking straight.
I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?
Really that's missing the point. We aren't starting from zero. Our economy is set up as an EU member and has evolved that way over more than a generation inside the Community/Union. The issue now is the extent of both the temporary and permanent damage that will be done as we go through an unplanned shock exit - i.e. what proportion of our economic and political strength remains once the dust has settled.
An astute post. That is the truth of it.
For the less ideological Remainers, we are politically imprisoned by the economics.
Leavers accept the collateral because to escape a federal union no price is too high.
So there you have it - "The EU is a prison". You can check out any time you like but you can never leave
You can leave. We are leaving.
But instead the land of milk and honey promised by the Brexiteers, it's looking more like "outside the wall" from Dredd, or Divergent.
Outside The Wall?
All alone, or in twos The ones who really love you Walk up and down outside the wall Some hand in hand Some gathering together in bands The bleeding hearts and the artists Make their stand And when they've given you their all Some stagger and fall after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall
@PolhomeEditor: Tory MP tells me an ex-Cabinet minister is a "ringleader"of the anti-May plot. They now believe she'll be gone before Brexit in March 2019.
If the EU was a healthy organisation it would be relaxed about members leaving, because the benefits would speak for themselves.
If the EU was a healthy organisation we wouldn't be leaving, and there probably wouldn't even have been a referendum in the first place.
If the Conservative party was a healthy organisation we wouldn't be leaving, and there probably wouldn't even have been a referendum in the first place.
I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?
I am arguing there is no pathway from membership of the EU to a decent eventual settlement, that doesn't involve us making an agreement with the EU on their terms. With the Brexit vote carried on the slimmest of margins and with the promise that it would be cost-free, there is no mandate or will for a "what it takes" Brexit. If Conservative Party Leavers don't deliver that pain-free Brexit, voters will go elsewhere.
That being so, the eventual outcomes will either be pseudo-Brexit where Britain operates as a client of the EU rather than as a participating member, or there will be a return to full membership. I think the first is more likely. People have a high tolerance of mediocrity.
So there you have it - "The EU is a prison". You can check out any time you like but you can never leave
That doesn't get you anywhere. People want a decent standard of living and want the politicians to sort the tricky stuff out. Perhaps the Leave campaign should have thought about where they were going to check out to before throwing the room keys away? I have lived in my house for more than twenty years, not because it is a prison, but because it works for me and I like it.
People aren't a stupid as you think they are. They actually have an opinion on how, who and for what end their country should be run.
It isn't all a working class tantrum.
Indeed they aren't stupid and they are certainly smart enough to know when they have been sold a pup. That's why Brexit has to be a success for Leavers. To be a perceived success Leavers will need to make some major accommodations with the EU, or it won't be a success and someone else will make those accommodations anyway.
@PolhomeEditor: Tory MP tells me an ex-Cabinet minister is a "ringleader"of the anti-May plot. They now believe she'll be gone before Brexit in March 2019.
Nicky bloody Morgan, or Anna Soubry. Egged on by Osborne. I doubt it's IDS, or Theresa Villiers. It's just possible it's Stephen Crabb.
If it is either of the first two, May is probably safe.
I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?
I am arguing there is no pathway from membership of the EU to a decent eventual settlement, that doesn't involve us making an agreement with the EU on their terms. With the Brexit vote carried on the slimmest of margins and with the promise that it would be cost-free, there is no mandate or will for a "what it takes" Brexit. If Conservative Party Leavers don't deliver that pain-free Brexit, voters will go elsewhere.
That being so, the eventual outcomes will either be pseudo-Brexit where Britain operates as a client of the EU rather than as a participating member, or there will be a return to full membership. I think the first is more likely. People have a high tolerance of mediocrity.
So there you have it - "The EU is a prison". You can check out any time you like but you can never leave
That doesn't get you anywhere. People want a decent standard of living and want the politicians to sort the tricky stuff out. Perhaps the Leave campaign should have thought about where they were going to check out to before throwing the room keys away? I have lived in my house for more than twenty years, not because it is a prison, but because it works for me and I like it.
And, we voted Leave because it didn't work for us and we didn't like it.
Just over half did - and it's difficult to know their motivation. My guess is it was mostly the free £350million/week for the NHS.
People aren't a stupid as you think they are. They actually have an opinion on how, who and for what end their country should be run.
And those that voted for £350m a week for the NHS are shit out of luck.
NHS budget this year: £116.4 billion
I am never very confident working with these big mofo numbers, but I am pretty sure an increase of 365m a week is an increase of 1.6%, I say again 1.6%. So if your best hope is that the NHS budget will never rise by 1.6% in a context where the increase can be spun as EU exit related, I'd say you were stuffed.
I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?
I am arguing there is no pathway from membership of the EU to a decent eventual settlement, that doesn't involve us making an agreement with the EU on their terms. With the Brexit vote carried on the slimmest of margins and with the promise that it would be cost-free, there is no mandate or will for a "what it takes" Brexit. If Conservative Party Leavers don't deliver that pain-free Brexit, voters will go elsewhere.
That being so, the eventual outcomes will either be pseudo-Brexit where Britain operates as a client of the EU rather than as a participating member, or there will be a return to full membership. I think the first is more likely. People have a high tolerance of mediocrity.
So there you have it - "The EU is a prison". You can check out any time you like but you can never leave
That doesn't get you anywhere. People want a decent standard of living and want the politicians to sort the tricky stuff out. Perhaps the Leave campaign should have thought about where they were going to check out to before throwing the room keys away? I have lived in my house for more than twenty years, not because it is a prison, but because it works for me and I like it.
And, we voted Leave because it didn't work for us and we didn't like it.
Just over half did - and it's difficult to know their motivation. My guess is it was mostly the free £350million/week for the NHS.
And the half that didn't thought we could keep the all benefits anyway because cars and prosecco.
If the EU was a healthy organisation it would be relaxed about members leaving, because the benefits would speak for themselves.
If the EU was a healthy organisation we wouldn't be leaving, and there probably wouldn't even have been a referendum in the first place.
If the Conservative party was a healthy organisation we wouldn't be leaving, and there probably wouldn't even have been a referendum in the first place.
If the electorate was a healthy organisation, they would realise the merits of the EU and we wouldn't be leaving, and there wouldn't have been a referendum in the first place.
If only we could dissolve the people and elect another.
If the EU was a healthy organisation it would be relaxed about members leaving, because the benefits would speak for themselves.
If the EU was a healthy organisation we wouldn't be leaving, and there probably wouldn't even have been a referendum in the first place.
If the Conservative party was a healthy organisation we wouldn't be leaving, and there probably wouldn't even have been a referendum in the first place.
If the electorate was a healthy organisation, they would realise the merits of the EU and we wouldn't be leaving, and there wouldn't have been a referendum in the first place.
If only we could dissolve the people and elect another.
I don't blame the electorate one bit. When even people like Mervyn King are clueless about it, what chance does the average voter have of making an informed decision?
Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.
The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.
Conservative Party Leavers want a Brexit that means Brexit and they want a Brexit success. The two are incompatible. It's possible they will go for the outer space option, bitterly blaming the EU as they go. Before too long someone - maybe not them - will decide the mess needs sorting out and will do a deal with the EU on their terms. The rational thing would be to do the deal now, avoid the mess and declare semi-plausibly that Brexit was a success. (Perhaps even better - abandon a course of action that harms ourselves). This lot are in denial and aren't thinking straight.
I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?
I am arguing there is no pathway from membership of the EU to a decent eventual settlement, that doesn't involve us making an agreement with the EU on their terms. With the Brexit vote carried on the slimmest of margins and with the promise that it would be cost-free, there is no mandate or will for a "what it takes" Brexit. If Conservative Party Leavers don't deliver that pain-free Brexit, voters will go elsewhere.
That being so, the eventual outcomes will either be pseudo-Brexit where Britain operates as a client of the EU rather than as a participating member, or there will be a return to full membership. I think the first is more likely. People have a high tolerance of mediocrity.
If it is the former, eurosceptics will shift their efforts to trying to divide and bring down the whole EU in an attempt to replace it with something else.
Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.
The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.
Conservative Party Leavers want a Brexit that means Brexit and they want a Brexit success. The two are incompatible. It's possible they will go for the outer space option, bitterly blaming the EU as they go. Before too long someone - maybe not them - will decide the mess needs sorting out and will do a deal with the EU on their terms. The rational thing would be to do the deal now, avoid the mess and declare semi-plausibly that Brexit was a success. (Perhaps even better - abandon a course of action that harms ourselves). This lot are in denial and aren't thinking straight.
I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?
I am arguing there is no pathway from membership of the EU to a decent eventual settlement, that doesn't involve us making an agreement with the EU on their terms. With the Brexit vote carried on the slimmest of margins and with the promise that it would be cost-free, there is no mandate or will for a "what it takes" Brexit. If Conservative Party Leavers don't deliver that pain-free Brexit, voters will go elsewhere.
That being so, the eventual outcomes will either be pseudo-Brexit where Britain operates as a client of the EU rather than as a participating member, or there will be a return to full membership. I think the first is more likely. People have a high tolerance of mediocrity.
If it is the former, eurosceptics will shift their efforts to trying to divide and bring down the whole EU in an attempt to replace it with something else.
If it's the former you'll be powerless to do that. If you want to sabotage the EU, your only chance is to get to the heart of it, but be prepared to make common cause with some unsavoury people.
In recent years, since the financial crisis, the middle class has been thinned, and wages for those who aren't very wealthy have either stagnated or gone backwards. However, at the top end things have been rather better. All the migration was seen as great because the man doing your hardwood flooring or plumbing would charge less. Whereas for tradesmen, the high migration levels increased competition.
Similarly, some enclaves built up and terrible things happened (cf Rotherham) because the politically correct authorities didn't want to do anything for fear of not being 'culturally sensitive' [if a culture accepts or encourages child rape then it deserves nothing but condemnation]. Because there was no equality under the law and because there's been no defence, let alone promotion, of British (particularly English) culture, or cultural values, these problems festered and worsened. We had right-on people proclaiming the wonder of diversity on the news (and lots of things are good about diversity, it can promote new ways of looking at the world and so on), yet refusing to listen to genuine grievances about integration.
Now we have a situation where members of Parliament object to a judge based on the colour of his skin. But it's ok. Because he's white. And bashing white men is ok.
The EU is an obvious and major divide in this country but there are plenty of others. If we'd voted 52% Remain there would be a lot less wailing and gnashing of teeth amongst the commentariat. It is, after all, more comfortable to be boiled slowly than fall into steaming hot water.
[I'm aware this isn't an EU-only thing, just commenting on the different prisms through which different people see the same situation].
"Ed Vaizey, a former minister, today became the first Tory MP to break ranks and said that "quite a few people are firmly of the view that she should resign" after her disastrous conference speech."
Why now? It wasn't her fault she had a cough or that the comedian got past security or that the set started falling to bits.
Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.
The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.
Conservative Party Leavers want a Brexit that means Brexit and they want a Brexit success. The two are incompatible. It's possible they will go for the outer space option, bitterly blaming the EU as they go. Before too long someone - maybe not them - will decide the mess needs sorting out and will do a deal with the EU on their terms. The rational thing would be to do the deal now, avoid the mess and declare semi-plausibly that Brexit was a success. (Perhaps even better - abandon a course of action that harms ourselves). This lot are in denial and aren't thinking straight.
I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?
I am arguing there is no pathway from membership of the EU to a decent eventual settlement, that doesn't involve us making an agreement with the EU on their terms. With the Brexit vote carried on the slimmest of margins and with the promise that it would be cost-free, there is no mandate or will for a "what it takes" Brexit. If Conservative Party Leavers don't deliver that pain-free Brexit, voters will go elsewhere.
That being so, the eventual outcomes will either be pseudo-Brexit where Britain operates as a client of the EU rather than as a participating member, or there will be a return to full membership. I think the first is more likely. People have a high tolerance of mediocrity.
If it is the former, eurosceptics will shift their efforts to trying to divide and bring down the whole EU in an attempt to replace it with something else.
If it's the former you'll be powerless to do that. If you want to sabotage the EU, your only chance is to get to the heart of it, but be prepared to make common cause with some unsavoury people.
If the EU was a healthy organisation it would be relaxed about members leaving, because the benefits would speak for themselves.
If the EU was a healthy organisation we wouldn't be leaving, and there probably wouldn't even have been a referendum in the first place.
If the Conservative party was a healthy organisation we wouldn't be leaving, and there probably wouldn't even have been a referendum in the first place.
If the electorate was a healthy organisation, they would realise the merits of the EU and we wouldn't be leaving, and there wouldn't have been a referendum in the first place.
If only we could dissolve the people and elect another.
I don't blame the electorate one bit. When even people like Mervyn King are clueless about it, what chance does the average voter have of making an informed decision?
"Clueless" = disagreeing with you that the EU is nirvana.
"Ed Vaizey, a former minister, today became the first Tory MP to break ranks and said that "quite a few people are firmly of the view that she should resign" after her disastrous conference speech."
Why now? It wasn't her fault she had a cough or that the comedian got past security or that the set started falling to bits.
No, but it is her fault that she needed a good conference to restore her reputation.
Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.
The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.
Conservative Party Leavers want a Brexit that means Brexit and they want a Brexit success. The two are incompatible. It's possible they will go for the outer space option, bitterly blaming the EU as they go. Before too long someone - maybe not them - will decide the mess needs sorting out and will do a deal with the EU on their terms. The rational thing would be to do the deal now, avoid the mess and declare semi-plausibly that Brexit was a success. (Perhaps even better - abandon a course of action that harms ourselves). This lot are in denial and aren't thinking straight.
I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?
I am arguing there is no pathway from membership of the EU to a decent eventual settlement, that doesn't involve us making an agreement with the EU on their terms. With the Brexit vote carried on the slimmest of margins and with the promise that it would be cost-free, there is no mandate or will for a "what it takes" Brexit. If Conservative Party Leavers don't deliver that pain-free Brexit, voters will go elsewhere.
That being so, the eventual outcomes will either be pseudo-Brexit where Britain operates as a client of the EU rather than as a participating member, or there will be a return to full membership. I think the first is more likely. People have a high tolerance of mediocrity.
So there you have it - "The EU is a prison". You can check out any time you like but you can never leave
Wrong, we can leave any time we choose what we can't do is dictate the terms on which we leave to the other 27 countries. There is a big difference.
"Ed Vaizey, a former minister, today became the first Tory MP to break ranks and said that "quite a few people are firmly of the view that she should resign" after her disastrous conference speech."
Why now? It wasn't her fault she had a cough or that the comedian got past security or that the set started falling to bits.
She's getting safer by the hour.
This is a revolt of the Remainer die-hards.
She need only get worried if some Leavers jump ship.
If the EU was a healthy organisation it would be relaxed about members leaving, because the benefits would speak for themselves.
If the EU was a healthy organisation we wouldn't be leaving, and there probably wouldn't even have been a referendum in the first place.
If the Conservative party was a healthy organisation we wouldn't be leaving, and there probably wouldn't even have been a referendum in the first place.
If the electorate was a healthy organisation, they would realise the merits of the EU and we wouldn't be leaving, and there wouldn't have been a referendum in the first place.
If only we could dissolve the people and elect another.
I don't blame the electorate one bit. When even people like Mervyn King are clueless about it, what chance does the average voter have of making an informed decision?
"Clueless" = disagreeing with you that the EU is nirvana.
No, I mean actually clueless about how the EU and how trade agreements work. He was seriously advocating that we start out by going round the world to countries like China and asking if they want a trade deal and only at the end of the process going back to the EU to sort out an FTA with them.
Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.
The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.
Conservative Party Leavers want a Brexit that means Brexit and they want a Brexit success. The two are incompatible. It's possible they will go for the outer space option, bitterly blaming the EU as they go. Before too long someone - maybe not them - will decide the mess needs sorting out and will do a deal with the EU on their terms. The rational thing would be to do the deal now, avoid the mess and declare semi-plausibly that Brexit was a success. (Perhaps even better - abandon a course of action that harms ourselves). This lot are in denial and aren't thinking straight.
I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?
I am arguing there is no pathway from membership of the EU to a decent eventual settlement, that doesn't involve us making an agreement with the EU on their terms. With the Brexit vote carried on the slimmest of margins and with the promise that it would be cost-free, there is no mandate or will for a "what it takes" Brexit. If Conservative Party Leavers don't deliver that pain-free Brexit, voters will go elsewhere.
That being so, the eventual outcomes will either be pseudo-Brexit where Britain operates as a client of the EU rather than as a participating member, or there will be a return to full membership. I think the first is more likely. People have a high tolerance of mediocrity.
So there you have it - "The EU is a prison". You can check out any time you like but you can never leave
Wrong, we can leave any time we choose what we can't do is dictate the terms on which we leave to the other 27 countries. There is a big difference.
I fear that concept will be lost on the more intense Leavers. The idea that the world will not be arranged on command to their own preferred alignment is quite alien to them.
People aren't a stupid as you think they are. They actually have an opinion on how, who and for what end their country should be run.
And those that voted for £350m a week for the NHS are shit out of luck.
NHS budget this year: £116.4 billion
I am never very confident working with these big mofo numbers, but I am pretty sure an increase of 365m a week is an increase of 1.6%, I say again 1.6%. So if your best hope is that the NHS budget will never rise by 1.6% in a context where the increase can be spun as EU exit related, I'd say you were stuffed.
Your lack of confidence in your arithmetical skills is well judged.
In recent years, since the financial crisis, the middle class has been thinned, and wages for those who aren't very wealthy have either stagnated or gone backwards. However, at the top end things have been rather better. All the migration was seen as great because the man doing your hardwood flooring or plumbing would charge less. Whereas for tradesmen, the high migration levels increased competition.
Similarly, some enclaves built up and terrible things happened (cf Rotherham) because the politically correct authorities didn't want to do anything for fear of not being 'culturally sensitive' [if a culture accepts or encourages child rape then it deserves nothing but condemnation]. Because there was no equality under the law and because there's been no defence, let alone promotion, of British (particularly English) culture, or cultural values, these problems festered and worsened. We had right-on people proclaiming the wonder of diversity on the news (and lots of things are good about diversity, it can promote new ways of looking at the world and so on), yet refusing to listen to genuine grievances about integration.
Now we have a situation where members of Parliament object to a judge based on the colour of his skin. But it's ok. Because he's white. And bashing white men is ok.
The EU is an obvious and major divide in this country but there are plenty of others. If we'd voted 52% Remain there would be a lot less wailing and gnashing of teeth amongst the commentariat. It is, after all, more comfortable to be boiled slowly than fall into steaming hot water.
[I'm aware this isn't an EU-only thing, just commenting on the different prisms through which different people see the same situation].
/endramble
True. My key prediction for the referendum result at the time was that it wouldn't resolve anything. People who voted Leave because they don't like the EU very much and would rather it got itself out of their lives, would be disappointed to discover the EU impacting MORE, not less, after our decision to exit.
I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?
I am arguing there is no pathway from membership of the EU to a decent eventual settlement, that doesn't involve us making an agreement with the EU on their terms. With the Brexit vote carried on the slimmest of margins and with the promise that it would be cost-free, there is no mandate or will for a "what it takes" Brexit. If Conservative Party Leavers don't deliver that pain-free Brexit, voters will go elsewhere.
That being so, the eventual outcomes will either be pseudo-Brexit where Britain operates as a client of the EU rather than as a participating member, or there will be a return to full membership. I think the first is more likely. People have a high tolerance of mediocrity.
So there you have it - "The EU is a prison". You can check out any time you like but you can never leave
That doesn't get you anywhere. People want a decent standard of living and want the politicians to sort the tricky stuff out. Perhaps the Leave campaign should have thought about where they were going to check out to before throwing the room keys away? I have lived in my house for more than twenty years, not because it is a prison, but because it works for me and I like it.
And, we voted Leave because it didn't work for us and we didn't like it.
Just over half did - and it's difficult to know their motivation. My guess is it was mostly the free £350million/week for the NHS.
I fear that concept will be lost on the more intense Leavers. The idea that the world will not be arranged on command to their own preferred alignment is quite alien to them.
We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.
Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”
When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”
People aren't a stupid as you think they are. They actually have an opinion on how, who and for what end their country should be run.
And those that voted for £350m a week for the NHS are shit out of luck.
NHS budget this year: £116.4 billion
I am never very confident working with these big mofo numbers, but I am pretty sure an increase of 365m a week is an increase of 1.6%, I say again 1.6%. So if your best hope is that the NHS budget will never rise by 1.6% in a context where the increase can be spun as EU exit related, I'd say you were stuffed.
Your lack of confidence in your arithmetical skills is well judged.
OK smartass, you do the math. And tell us the answer.
People aren't a stupid as you think they are. They actually have an opinion on how, who and for what end their country should be run.
And those that voted for £350m a week for the NHS are shit out of luck.
NHS budget this year: £116.4 billion
I am never very confident working with these big mofo numbers, but I am pretty sure an increase of 365m a week is an increase of 1.6%, I say again 1.6%. So if your best hope is that the NHS budget will never rise by 1.6% in a context where the increase can be spun as EU exit related, I'd say you were stuffed.
350,000,000 x 52 = 18,200,000,000 18,200,000,000 / 116,400,000,000 = 15.6%
If the EU was a healthy organisation it would be relaxed about members leaving, because the benefits would speak for themselves.
If the EU was a healthy organisation we wouldn't be leaving, and there probably wouldn't even have been a referendum in the first place.
If the Conservative party was a healthy organisation we wouldn't be leaving, and there probably wouldn't even have been a referendum in the first place.
If the electorate was a healthy organisation, they would realise the merits of the EU and we wouldn't be leaving, and there wouldn't have been a referendum in the first place.
If only we could dissolve the people and elect another.
I don't blame the electorate one bit. When even people like Mervyn King are clueless about it, what chance does the average voter have of making an informed decision?
"Clueless" = disagreeing with you that the EU is nirvana.
No, I mean actually clueless about how the EU and how trade agreements work. He was seriously advocating that we start out by going round the world to countries like China and asking if they want a trade deal and only at the end of the process going back to the EU to sort out an FTA with them.
Some of our appeal as a trading partner to non-EU countries is predicated on the quality of our trading relationship (in turn) with the EU, but not all. For example, we are 65 million affluent consumers of goods and services regardless, with key strengths in professional services and reliable institutions. And a large chunk of our trade isn't even routed via the EU.
It isn't a zero sum game.
So what Mervyn said is certainly an option, even if there are good reasons why it might not be the optimal one.
Nice steady progress on an upward trend for both Lib Dems and Labour in the figures.I expect a drip drip drip effect on the Tory percentage on a gradually reducing trend so by next year polling at mid-30s becomes the norm depending on the price of my own brand 250mgs block butter I order every week which has risen from 96p to £1.45 since the beginning of the year ie the cost of living,less income,more expense with a 5.99% council tax rise hitting the doormats in the spring.Then,the Tories will press the panic button,which could well lead to a GE sometime in 2018-or maybe not.
People aren't a stupid as you think they are. They actually have an opinion on how, who and for what end their country should be run.
And those that voted for £350m a week for the NHS are shit out of luck.
NHS budget this year: £116.4 billion
I am never very confident working with these big mofo numbers, but I am pretty sure an increase of 365m a week is an increase of 1.6%, I say again 1.6%. So if your best hope is that the NHS budget will never rise by 1.6% in a context where the increase can be spun as EU exit related, I'd say you were stuffed.
Your lack of confidence in your arithmetical skills is well judged.
OK smartass, you do the math. And tell us the answer.
52 x .35 = 18.2; you take it from there...
Edit - @topping has saved you the effort... better not to reach quite such strident conclusions as you did when out by a factor of 10
I fear that concept will be lost on the more intense Leavers. The idea that the world will not be arranged on command to their own preferred alignment is quite alien to them.
We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.
Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”
When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”
Sad.
Just for a moment, cast your mind back a few months. The voters, repeat voters, chose to 'Leave the EU'. They didn't have to give their reasons. You are in no position to say what those reasons were with any accuracy, but the result is known... Leave the EU.
Have some respect for voters. They are just as bright as you are and their vote is a valuable as yours.
The voters said we should leave. Now, let's discuss how to do it to our best advantage, without sneering at those who don't agree that the whole thing is going to be an utter disaster.
I fear that concept will be lost on the more intense Leavers. The idea that the world will not be arranged on command to their own preferred alignment is quite alien to them.
We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.
Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”
When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”
The problem with that analogy is, for all the downsides, people still get divorced and generally end up happier for it.
"Ed Vaizey, a former minister, today became the first Tory MP to break ranks and said that "quite a few people are firmly of the view that she should resign" after her disastrous conference speech."
Why now? It wasn't her fault she had a cough or that the comedian got past security or that the set started falling to bits.
No, but it is her fault that she needed a good conference to restore her reputation.
Didn’t give me the impression of a good, i.e positive, confident, conference before the speech.
I fear that concept will be lost on the more intense Leavers. The idea that the world will not be arranged on command to their own preferred alignment is quite alien to them.
We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.
Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”
When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”
Sad.
Just for a moment, cast your mind back a few months. The voters, repeat voters, chose to 'Leave the EU'. They didn't have to give their reasons. You are in no position to say what those reasons were with any accuracy, but the result is known... Leave the EU.
Have some respect for voters. They are just as bright as you are and their vote is a valuable as yours.
The voters said we should leave. Now, let's discuss how to do it to our best advantage, without sneering at those who don't agree that the whole thing is going to be an utter disaster.
You are quite wrong, Leave voters are moronic proles. Scott knows this because he talked himself hoarse through day after day of canvassing for Remain, standing on their doorsteps and pointing out their errors to them.
All that is necessary for the triumph of Brexit is that remainers confuse rebleating stuff on the internet, with actually doing something.
"Ed Vaizey, a former minister, today became the first Tory MP to break ranks and said that "quite a few people are firmly of the view that she should resign" after her disastrous conference speech."
Why now? It wasn't her fault she had a cough or that the comedian got past security or that the set started falling to bits.
No, but it is her fault that she needed a good conference to restore her reputation.
Didn’t give me the impression of a good, i.e positive, confident, conference before the speech.
She was seriously going nowhere. All the momentum was with Corbyn and she needed a game changing conference and a speech to wrap it up that put energy, hope and ideas back into her party while making the non-aligned voter give her and the party another look... Frog, prankster and Fs falling off aren't the reason she has failed to do that!
People aren't a stupid as you think they are. They actually have an opinion on how, who and for what end their country should be run.
And those that voted for £350m a week for the NHS are shit out of luck.
NHS budget this year: £116.4 billion
I am never very confident working with these big mofo numbers, but I am pretty sure an increase of 365m a week is an increase of 1.6%, I say again 1.6%. So if your best hope is that the NHS budget will never rise by 1.6% in a context where the increase can be spun as EU exit related, I'd say you were stuffed.
Your lack of confidence in your arithmetical skills is well judged.
OK smartass, you do the math. And tell us the answer.
I think you have your decimal point in the wrong place. I make it 15.6%
Nice steady progress on an upward trend for both Lib Dems and Labour in the figures.I expect a drip drip drip effect on the Tory percentage on a gradually reducing trend so by next year polling at mid-30s becomes the norm depending on the price of my own brand 250mgs block butter I order every week which has risen from 96p to £1.45 since the beginning of the year ie the cost of living,less income,more expense with a 5.99% council tax rise hitting the doormats in the spring.Then,the Tories will press the panic button,which could well lead to a GE sometime in 2018-or maybe not.
I've had the same experience ... the butter I buy (from Lidl) is up from 89 p to £1.39.
Hopefully if we vote again in May/June 2018 we get such a badly- (or well?) hung parliament that A50 runs out while we're still discussing the coalition arrangements.
BTW Germany expects to form a new govt in 2018. PR takes time.
The UK at present seems to have all the disadvantages of PR (it usually takes more than one party to govern) and all the disadvantages of FPTP (seats are non-proportional to votes cast).
I fear that concept will be lost on the more intense Leavers. The idea that the world will not be arranged on command to their own preferred alignment is quite alien to them.
We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.
Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”
When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”
The problem with that analogy is, for all the downsides, people still get divorced and generally end up happier for it.
I fear that concept will be lost on the more intense Leavers. The idea that the world will not be arranged on command to their own preferred alignment is quite alien to them.
We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.
Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”
When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”
The problem with that analogy is, for all the downsides, people still get divorced and generally end up happier for it.
Leaving the EU is more like getting divorced and continuing to live with your ex-spouse for the rest of your life. As a country we don't have the option of eloping and starting a new life down under.
People aren't a stupid as you think they are. They actually have an opinion on how, who and for what end their country should be run.
And those that voted for £350m a week for the NHS are shit out of luck.
NHS budget this year: £116.4 billion
I am never very confident working with these big mofo numbers, but I am pretty sure an increase of 365m a week is an increase of 1.6%, I say again 1.6%. So if your best hope is that the NHS budget will never rise by 1.6% in a context where the increase can be spun as EU exit related, I'd say you were stuffed.
Your lack of confidence in your arithmetical skills is well judged.
OK smartass, you do the math. And tell us the answer.
I think you have your decimal point in the wrong place. I make it 15.6%
People aren't a stupid as you think they are. They actually have an opinion on how, who and for what end their country should be run.
And those that voted for £350m a week for the NHS are shit out of luck.
NHS budget this year: £116.4 billion
I am never very confident working with these big mofo numbers, but I am pretty sure an increase of 365m a week is an increase of 1.6%, I say again 1.6%. So if your best hope is that the NHS budget will never rise by 1.6% in a context where the increase can be spun as EU exit related, I'd say you were stuffed.
Your lack of confidence in your arithmetical skills is well judged.
OK smartass, you do the math. And tell us the answer.
I think you have your decimal point in the wrong place. I make it 15.6%
Ah thanks. The point stands, though - 15% by 2020 can be conjured up out of planned increases and not adjusting for inflation.
People aren't a stupid as you think they are. They actually have an opinion on how, who and for what end their country should be run.
And those that voted for £350m a week for the NHS are shit out of luck.
NHS budget this year: £116.4 billion
I am never very confident working with these big mofo numbers, but I am pretty sure an increase of 365m a week is an increase of 1.6%, I say again 1.6%. So if your best hope is that the NHS budget will never rise by 1.6% in a context where the increase can be spun as EU exit related, I'd say you were stuffed.
Within the same context then our contribution to the EU was relatively small - and that's in gross terms and pre-rebate so why imply, as many Leavers do, that being in the EU was costing us a small fortune.
People aren't a stupid as you think they are. They actually have an opinion on how, who and for what end their country should be run.
And those that voted for £350m a week for the NHS are shit out of luck.
NHS budget this year: £116.4 billion
I am never very confident working with these big mofo numbers, but I am pretty sure an increase of 365m a week is an increase of 1.6%, I say again 1.6%. So if your best hope is that the NHS budget will never rise by 1.6% in a context where the increase can be spun as EU exit related, I'd say you were stuffed.
Your lack of confidence in your arithmetical skills is well judged.
OK smartass, you do the math. And tell us the answer.
I think you have your decimal point in the wrong place. I make it 15.6%
Ah thanks. The point stands, though - 15% by 2020 can be conjured up out of planned increases and not adjusting for inflation.
Er no that is quite a boost to the NHS budget; your point would still have stood had the increase been a rounding error as you initially suggested.
People aren't a stupid as you think they are. They actually have an opinion on how, who and for what end their country should be run.
And those that voted for £350m a week for the NHS are shit out of luck.
NHS budget this year: £116.4 billion
I am never very confident working with these big mofo numbers, but I am pretty sure an increase of 365m a week is an increase of 1.6%, I say again 1.6%. So if your best hope is that the NHS budget will never rise by 1.6% in a context where the increase can be spun as EU exit related, I'd say you were stuffed.
Your lack of confidence in your arithmetical skills is well judged.
OK smartass, you do the math. And tell us the answer.
I think you have your decimal point in the wrong place. I make it 15.6%
Ah thanks. The point stands, though - 15% by 2020 can be conjured up out of planned increases and not adjusting for inflation.
Easy done and it is entirely possible by 2020 the increase in NHS spending will be similar to that, at least in nominal terms. Of course this would have happened if we had remained in too although inflation might have been a little lower.
People aren't a stupid as you think they are. They actually have an opinion on how, who and for what end their country should be run.
And those that voted for £350m a week for the NHS are shit out of luck.
NHS budget this year: £116.4 billion
I am never very confident working with these big mofo numbers, but I am pretty sure an increase of 365m a week is an increase of 1.6%, I say again 1.6%. So if your best hope is that the NHS budget will never rise by 1.6% in a context where the increase can be spun as EU exit related, I'd say you were stuffed.
350,000,000 x 52 = 18,200,000,000 18,200,000,000 / 116,400,000,000 = 15.6%
Yes, probably not possible in one bolus, as it would be financial bulemia worse than the Blair years. A sustained increase of funding of 3% over CPI compounded would be helpful. Not least because the deficit is running at nearly that.
"Ed Vaizey, a former minister, today became the first Tory MP to break ranks and said that "quite a few people are firmly of the view that she should resign" after her disastrous conference speech."
Why now? It wasn't her fault she had a cough or that the comedian got past security or that the set started falling to bits.
No, but it is her fault that she needed a good conference to restore her reputation.
Didn’t give me the impression of a good, i.e positive, confident, conference before the speech.
She was seriously going nowhere. All the momentum was with Corbyn and she needed a game changing conference and a speech to wrap it up that put energy, hope and ideas back into her party while making the non-aligned voter give her and the party another look... Frog, prankster and Fs falling off aren't the reason she has failed to do that!
When does Parliament reassemble? Is it Monday. If it is there’ll be a PMQ on Wednesday. Wonder what JC will make of it.
Comments
It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.
It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.
Ed Vaizey is merely the start.
Ryan Gosling deserves an Oscar.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/05/exclusive-tory-rebels-say-5050-chance-will-tell-theresa-may/
The argument the leavers made was that outside we would be more influential and more prosperous.
It is reasonable to argue that neither of those things is true. Joining the EU affords countries greater prosperity and influence.
Can we survive? Probably.
Is that a success?
https://twitter.com/yahboyantman/status/915686233933836288
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/homage-to-catalonia.html
https://twitter.com/odysseanproject/status/915916996520407040
The article is 2 1/2 years old and about formal methods in s/w, which have been around decades. The new bit seems to be that Amazon actually use them in non-safety s/w, like AWS cloud stuff and have found it not too demanding.
That being so, the eventual outcomes will either be pseudo-Brexit where Britain operates as a client of the EU rather than as a participating member, or there will be a return to full membership. I think the first is more likely. People have a high tolerance of mediocrity.
2) Given the allegations of multiple voting, the turnout figure should be taken with a pinch of salt.
If you're a new PM, you have a window of about four-five months to call an election and dress it up as 'seeking your own mandate' whilst hopefully keeping the bounce in the polls both got for their parties immediately after taking charge (they're not hard to see - just look at UKPR). Any accusations of being opportunistic can be deflected as 'I've gone to get my own mandate as soon as reasonably possible'.
Of course, May may (ho ho ho) have ended up in the same situation (poor campaign, unable to engage with voters) in an October 2016 election, but arguably it would have been better doing this BEFORE activating Article 50.
But instead the land of milk and honey promised by the Brexiteers, it's looking more like "outside the wall" from Dredd, or Divergent.
It isn't all a working class tantrum.
The electorate wasn't asked at any stage (save a post-joining referendum on joining the EEC) as powers were thrown away, even when a referendum had been promised (Lisbon), and now the political and media class is complaining that we're really integrated and leaving is difficult.
For the less ideological Remainers, we are politically imprisoned by the economics.
Leavers accept the collateral because to escape a federal union no price is too high.
All alone, or in twos
The ones who really love you
Walk up and down outside the wall
Some hand in hand
Some gathering together in bands
The bleeding hearts and the artists
Make their stand
And when they've given you their all
Some stagger and fall after all it's not easy
banging your heart against some mad buggers wall
Yeah, that sounds like Brexit
http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/cough-f-off-and-stunt
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/747000584226607104
If it is either of the first two, May is probably safe.
My guess is it was mostly the free £350million/week for the NHS.
I am never very confident working with these big mofo numbers, but I am pretty sure an increase of 365m a week is an increase of 1.6%, I say again 1.6%. So if your best hope is that the NHS budget will never rise by 1.6% in a context where the increase can be spun as EU exit related, I'd say you were stuffed.
If only we could dissolve the people and elect another.
In recent years, since the financial crisis, the middle class has been thinned, and wages for those who aren't very wealthy have either stagnated or gone backwards. However, at the top end things have been rather better. All the migration was seen as great because the man doing your hardwood flooring or plumbing would charge less. Whereas for tradesmen, the high migration levels increased competition.
Similarly, some enclaves built up and terrible things happened (cf Rotherham) because the politically correct authorities didn't want to do anything for fear of not being 'culturally sensitive' [if a culture accepts or encourages child rape then it deserves nothing but condemnation]. Because there was no equality under the law and because there's been no defence, let alone promotion, of British (particularly English) culture, or cultural values, these problems festered and worsened. We had right-on people proclaiming the wonder of diversity on the news (and lots of things are good about diversity, it can promote new ways of looking at the world and so on), yet refusing to listen to genuine grievances about integration.
Now we have a situation where members of Parliament object to a judge based on the colour of his skin. But it's ok. Because he's white. And bashing white men is ok.
The EU is an obvious and major divide in this country but there are plenty of others. If we'd voted 52% Remain there would be a lot less wailing and gnashing of teeth amongst the commentariat. It is, after all, more comfortable to be boiled slowly than fall into steaming hot water.
[I'm aware this isn't an EU-only thing, just commenting on the different prisms through which different people see the same situation].
/endramble
Why now?
It wasn't her fault she had a cough or that the comedian got past security or that the set started falling to bits.
This is a revolt of the Remainer die-hards.
She need only get worried if some Leavers jump ship.
We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.
Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”
When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”
18,200,000,000 / 116,400,000,000 = 15.6%
It isn't a zero sum game.
So what Mervyn said is certainly an option, even if there are good reasons why it might not be the optimal one.
Edit - @topping has saved you the effort... better not to reach quite such strident conclusions as you did when out by a factor of 10
Just for a moment, cast your mind back a few months. The voters, repeat voters, chose to 'Leave the EU'. They didn't have to give their reasons. You are in no position to say what those reasons were with any accuracy, but the result is known... Leave the EU.
Have some respect for voters. They are just as bright as you are and their vote is a valuable as yours.
The voters said we should leave. Now, let's discuss how to do it to our best advantage, without sneering at those who don't agree that the whole thing is going to be an utter disaster.
Doesn't mean he's not providing 'encouragement', mind.
Does he have credibility issues relating to some of what he said during the vote leave campaign? Of course.
Is the idea of a united party led by Boris really beyond the imagination of even John Lennon? Absolutely.
Is the idea of him being taken seriously furth of these shores a bit of a stretch? To put it mildly.
Is there an obvious alternative actually in the Commons? Err......
All that is necessary for the triumph of Brexit is that remainers confuse rebleating stuff on the internet, with actually doing something.
Frog, prankster and Fs falling off aren't the reason she has failed to do that!
Hopefully if we vote again in May/June 2018 we get such a badly- (or well?) hung parliament that A50 runs out while we're still discussing the coalition arrangements.
BTW Germany expects to form a new govt in 2018. PR takes time.
The UK at present seems to have all the disadvantages of PR (it usually takes more than one party to govern) and all the disadvantages of FPTP (seats are non-proportional to votes cast).
A sensible Tory (Grieve) is on R4.
Within the same context then our contribution to the EU was relatively small - and that's in gross terms and pre-rebate so why imply, as many Leavers do, that being in the EU was costing us a small fortune.
They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.
brilliant.
It went...
Well: 15%
Badly: 49%
[Neither]: 17%
Did they only poll Tory MPs?