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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s Opinium net approval ratings trail both Cable and May

SystemSystem Posts: 11,684
edited May 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s Opinium net approval ratings trail both Cable and May by 10 points

The May Opinium poll for the Observer is just including what is the only leader approval ratings series from any UK pollster.

Read the full story here


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  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    This poll on UNS would see the Tories gain 15 seats from Labour (including that of Ms Dent Coad) for an overall majority of 14, virtually identical to Cameron's 2015 majority
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    Cable is only on -8 because 92% of the population didn't know who he was, while the other 8% thought him a tosser.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:



    And I am instinctively wary of those groups who want to rip everything up and start again. In politics that has usually resulted in a lot of destruction and misery and very little constructive achievement to show for it.

    There is an example right in front of us but the name escapes me for the moment......

    If you don't mind a techy read, this is an excellent article on that very phenomenon: https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2000/04/06/things-you-should-never-do-part-i/
    Had lunch with Joel Spolsky once. Nice bloke.
    Jealous. I think his blog (when he wrote it) was excellent.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    How long before the usual suspect pops up to tell us to ignore all mid-term polling because it is totally useless?
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    rcs1000 said:

    Cable is only on -8 because 92% of the population didn't know who he was, while the other 8% thought him a tosser.

    I suspect he is quite well known actually. I'm sorry to say that your hostility hardly surprises me and you dislike Cable because the city boys have been losing the argument for 10 years. Deal with it or come up with a more popular prospectus.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    FrankBooth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cable is only on -8 because 92% of the population didn't know who he was, while the other 8% thought him a tosser.

    I suspect he is quite well known actually. I'm sorry to say that your hostility hardly surprises me and you dislike Cable because the city boys have been losing the argument for 10 years. Deal with it or come up with a more popular prospectus.
    He drones. That is my objection.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    rcs1000 said:

    FrankBooth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cable is only on -8 because 92% of the population didn't know who he was, while the other 8% thought him a tosser.

    I suspect he is quite well known actually. I'm sorry to say that your hostility hardly surprises me and you dislike Cable because the city boys have been losing the argument for 10 years. Deal with it or come up with a more popular prospectus.
    He drones. That is my objection.
    Oh really? I detect sour grapes.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited May 2018
    CON 43 (+3)
    LAB 39 (-1)

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    13 Con poll leads in a row.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    There is a legitimate criticism to be made of Vince that he appears to have made a volte face on a second referendum since becoming Lib Dem leader.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    FrankBooth said:

    There is a legitimate criticism to be made of Vince that he appears to have made a volte face on a second referendum since becoming Lib Dem leader.

    Don't think I remember him saying anything at all as leader. He makes Iain Duncan Smith look like a motormouth.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    AndyJS said:

    13 Con poll leads in a row.

    They should call an election! :wink:
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    Andrew said:

    FrankBooth said:

    There is a legitimate criticism to be made of Vince that he appears to have made a volte face on a second referendum since becoming Lib Dem leader.

    Don't think I remember him saying anything at all as leader. He makes Iain Duncan Smith look like a motormouth.
    To be fair he does only have a dozen MPs.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited May 2018
    HYUFD said:

    This poll on UNS would see the Tories gain 15 seats from Labour (including that of Ms Dent Coad) for an overall majority of 14, virtually identical to Cameron's 2015 majority

    On a swing of 0.75% there would actually be 11 Tory gains at Labour expense. It might be worth bearing in mind too that most of those seats would have Labour MPs who might reasonably expect a first term incumbency bonus.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    MarkHopkins said:

    CON 43 (+3)
    LAB 39 (-1)

    Gold standard? :o
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    AndyJS said:

    13 Con poll leads in a row.

    There has been one tie too!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Some LibDem success at the Local Elections possibly - though that is not reflected in their recorded vote share here.
  • Options
    steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    We don’t like politicians much do we? Another thing the great British public get right.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    It probably didn’t affect their nuptials unduly.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454
    I remember the days when Mrs May had a 69% lead over Mr Corbyn.

    Within weeks he had a 4% lead.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Benpointer said:

    AndyJS said:

    13 Con poll leads in a row.

    They should call an election! :wink:
    Con Maj Nailed On!

    Labour will have to disband!
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Con gain Bootle
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    What a miserable git....

    It was Labour MP Dennis Skinner who perhaps best captured the caustic mood of those left cold by the happy couple’s big day. Posting a “do not disturb sign” on his Twitter account, the Beast of Bolsover, displayed a four point checklist: “Newspaper in the bin. CHECK; TV unplugged. CHECK; Radio, batteries removed. CHECK; Twitter feed disabled. CHECK; Have a lovely day.”
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454
    I'm quite disappointed by this wedding, where was the Pippa Middleton de nos jours?
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm quite disappointed by this wedding, where was the Pippa Middleton de nos jours?

    They learned from last time.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454
    Freggles said:

    Con gain Bootle

    We've moved on.

    The new target is Con gain Scotland.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454
    https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited May 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

    Is that not a tad shall we a say condescending...if I told mrs urquhart I could
    Help her unlock her talent, I will be sleeping outside with the dog (if I am lucky), or be looking for a new significant other (if she isn’t feeling so generous).
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,650
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

    Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I remember the days when Mrs May had a 69% lead over Mr Corbyn.

    Within weeks he had a 4% lead.

    But that process has now happened and things have realigned. It is not as if Corbyn is coming as a surprise package any longer.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    Freggles said:

    Con gain Bootle

    Not quite, though on this poll the Tories would gain Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Crewe and Nantwich, Canterbury, Barrow and Furness, Keighley, Ashfield, Stroud, Bishop Auckland and Peterborough from Labour.
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

    It is that sort of facile, patronising identity politics that is damaging the Left. They need to start looking at unlocking the potential of individuals based on their talents not their skin colour.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    oxfordsimon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I remember the days when Mrs May had a 69% lead over Mr Corbyn.

    Within weeks he had a 4% lead.

    But that process has now happened and things have realigned. It is not as if Corbyn is coming as a surprise package any longer.
    Haha - please keep on believing that pal!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

    Is that not a tad shall we a say condescending
    I believe James Cleverly spent the afternoon that came out tweeting photos of Tory BAME candidates who hadn't needed Labour to unlock their talent.

    Even a super lefty friend of mine thought it a very ill judged message, although clearly it didn't harm them any, and it's not like any political party gets all its messages right, the Tories certainly do not.
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What a miserable git....

    It was Labour MP Dennis Skinner who perhaps best captured the caustic mood of those left cold by the happy couple’s big day. Posting a “do not disturb sign” on his Twitter account, the Beast of Bolsover, displayed a four point checklist: “Newspaper in the bin. CHECK; TV unplugged. CHECK; Radio, batteries removed. CHECK; Twitter feed disabled. CHECK; Have a lovely day.”

    You know Mr Skinner, you could have just gone outside, or read a book, you didn't need to unplug everything. And why buy a paper in the first place if you intended to throw it away?
    Wouldn't a more powerful and effective demonstration of not being interested in the royal wedding have been to just not mention it, and go about your day?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Freggles said:

    Con gain Bootle

    We've moved on.

    The new target is Con gain Scotland.
    Dave at GE2015 = 1 Scottish Seat
    Theresa at GE2017 = 13 Scottish Seats
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454
    Could have been worse, he could have called her a completely different name like Stormy,

    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/997911666716217344
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

    Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .
    I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Corbyn did , does and always will talk via his anus.. What he says is just bullshit.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

    Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .
    I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory
    The first? You're showing your ignorance.

    Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    Benpointer said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I remember the days when Mrs May had a 69% lead over Mr Corbyn.

    Within weeks he had a 4% lead.

    But that process has now happened and things have realigned. It is not as if Corbyn is coming as a surprise package any longer.
    Haha - please keep on believing that pal!
    It could be true. I think that it would be a mistake to assume that to be the case, very complacent, and I happen to think the chances of him winning are fairly high, but automatic dismissal of any signs he is not doing great would also be a complacent error from any Corbyn fans.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm quite disappointed by this wedding, where was the Pippa Middleton de nos jours?

    The Rev Michael Curry?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454
    Just imagine how far I could have gone if Jeremy Corbyn had helped unlock my talent.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just imagine how far I could have gone if Jeremy Corbyn had helped unlock my talent.

    You'd have overthrown OGH as Editor?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    Tories beginning to draw ahead in the polls as May pursues an ever softer Brexit. Fancy that!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

    Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .
    I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory
    The first? You're showing your ignorance.

    Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.
    She was?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlotte_of_Mecklenburg-Strelitz
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    When will someone help me, a member of the white lower middle classes, unlock my talent? Or more to the point, who will help me if I have no talent to unlock?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

    Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .
    I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory
    The first? You're showing your ignorance.

    Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.
    I don't think being the daughter of the Duke of a small north German duchy quite counts as mixed race
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

    Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .
    I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory
    The first? You're showing your ignorance.

    Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.
    She was?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlotte_of_Mecklenburg-Strelitz
    According to Mario de Valdes y Cocom, Charlotte may have had African ancestry, via descent from Margarita de Castro e Souza, a 15th-century Portuguese noblewoman, who traced her ancestry to King Afonso III of Portugal (1210–1279) and one of his mistresses, Madragana (c. 1230–?).[36]

    Critics of Valdes's theory point out that Margarita's and Madragana's distant perch in the queen's family tree – nine and 15 generations removed, respectively – makes any African ancestry that they bequeathed to Charlotte negligible and even doubt whether Madragana was black.

    Go back so many centuries I'd assume we were all mixed race.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm quite disappointed by this wedding, where was the Pippa Middleton de nos jours?

    I'm sure I spotted Camilla
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

    Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .
    I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory
    The first? You're showing your ignorance.

    Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.
    I don't think being the daughter of the Duke of a small north German duchy quite counts as mixed race
    She had black African ancestry in her genes.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/meghan-markle-prince-harry-engaged-royal-wedding-mixed-race-black-princess-british-monarchy-history-a8079251.html
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454
    kle4 said:

    When will someone help me, a member of the white lower middle classes, unlock my talent? Or more to the point, who will help me if I have no talent to unlock?

    The Tory Party, we made IDS leader, a man no talents.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just imagine how far I could have gone if Jeremy Corbyn had helped unlock my talent.

    You could be driving buses Trams in Sheffield Rotherham Parkgate :lol:
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    edited May 2018
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.
    Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

    Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .
    I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory
    The first? You're showing your ignorance.

    Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.
    I don't think being the daughter of the Duke of a small north German duchy quite counts as mixed race
    Come to think of it, Her Majesty's ancestry probably reflects the EU28 pretty well. :smile:
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    Benpointer said:

    Tories beginning to draw ahead in the polls as May pursues an ever softer Brexit. Fancy that!

    It is a little baffling, frankly. Not because of the soft brexit thing - I'd have said at the time that most (though not all) remain supporters would presumably prefer a softer brexit, and some number of Leave supporters would too, so something that could be portrayed as soft would probably gain more support - but because she has looked so weak and shambolic, and the Tories so stupidly divided, that eking out a lead just seems so strange.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

    Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .
    I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory
    The first? You're showing your ignorance.

    Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.
    I don't think being the daughter of the Duke of a small north German duchy quite counts as mixed race
    She had black African ancestry in her genes.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/meghan-markle-prince-harry-engaged-royal-wedding-mixed-race-black-princess-british-monarchy-history-a8079251.html
    Some historians suspect that she does.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Benpointer said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I remember the days when Mrs May had a 69% lead over Mr Corbyn.

    Within weeks he had a 4% lead.

    But that process has now happened and things have realigned. It is not as if Corbyn is coming as a surprise package any longer.
    Haha - please keep on believing that pal!
    It is not about believing it - it is about accepting the current realities. The next election will not be a rerun of the 2017 campaign. What happened then won't happen next time round.

    Any assumption that Corbyn will see a similar shift in support is just denying political reality.

    But please keep on deluding yourself.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

    Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .
    I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory
    The first? You're showing your ignorance.

    Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.
    I don't think being the daughter of the Duke of a small north German duchy quite counts as mixed race
    She had black African ancestry in her genes.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/meghan-markle-prince-harry-engaged-royal-wedding-mixed-race-black-princess-british-monarchy-history-a8079251.html
    We all do.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recent_African_origin_of_modern_humans
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

    Though she didnt break through in Britain, she broke through in Obama's USA. .
    I would say the first mixed race member of the British royal family is breaking Britain by any definition, following on of course from the first BAME Home Secretary being a Tory
    The first? You're showing your ignorance.

    Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz was the first mixed race member of the British Royal Family.
    I don't think being the daughter of the Duke of a small north German duchy quite counts as mixed race
    Come to think of it, Her Majesty's ancestry probably reflects the EU28 pretty well. :smile:
    Weren't there stories of her being descended, through some convoluted fashion, to Mohammed as well?

    And that's not to mention the links to non christian deities like Woden!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.
    Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful
    If you say so - but how will they know? The only people who will find out about it today are anoraks, and if you tell people even a week from now they will probably react by asking if you don't have something more important to criticise him about!
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    Tories beginning to draw ahead in the polls as May pursues an ever softer Brexit. Fancy that!

    It is a little baffling, frankly. Not because of the soft brexit thing - I'd have said at the time that most (though not all) remain supporters would presumably prefer a softer brexit, and some number of Leave supporters would too, so something that could be portrayed as soft would probably gain more support - but because she has looked so weak and shambolic, and the Tories so stupidly divided, that eking out a lead just seems so strange.
    Maybe there is an understanding of (and some sympathy for) the challenge she faces with her own party? Plenty of other potential factors too, of course, e.g: Labour anti-semitism and perceived weakeness over the Salisbury poisoning; Tories softening austerity and quitely adopting popular Labour policies.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    When will someone help me, a member of the white lower middle classes, unlock my talent? Or more to the point, who will help me if I have no talent to unlock?

    The Tory Party, we made IDS leader, a man no talents.
    If the options are 'not getting talent unlocked' or 'become leader of the Tory party' I think I'll take the former - who wants the responsibility of managing that unruly mob!

    Night all.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.
    Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful
    If you say so - but how will they know? The only people who will find out about it today are anoraks, and if you tell people even a week from now they will probably react by asking if you don't have something more important to criticise him about!
    How will they know? I suspect the DM, Sun, Express, Torygraph and other papers will mention it in passing :wink:
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    oxfordsimon said:

    Benpointer said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I remember the days when Mrs May had a 69% lead over Mr Corbyn.

    Within weeks he had a 4% lead.

    But that process has now happened and things have realigned. It is not as if Corbyn is coming as a surprise package any longer.
    Haha - please keep on believing that pal!
    It is not about believing it - it is about accepting the current realities. The next election will not be a rerun of the 2017 campaign. What happened then won't happen next time round.

    Any assumption that Corbyn will see a similar shift in support is just denying political reality.

    But please keep on deluding yourself.
    Truth is, we neither of us know. Time will tell (assuming Jezza is still LOTO at the next GE). :smile:
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.
    Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful
    If you say so - but how will they know? The only people who will find out about it today are anoraks, and if you tell people even a week from now they will probably react by asking if you don't have something more important to criticise him about!
    How will they know? I suspect the DM, Sun, Express, Torygraph and other papers will mention it in passing :wink:
    It's pretty weaksauce, particularly if he tweets something out tomorrow or something. "Oh noes, evil Corbyn said congrats to Harry and Meghan a day late!". Maybe I don't know squat, but I think even the partisan press will struggle to have that story cut through.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    When will someone help me, a member of the white lower middle classes, unlock my talent? Or more to the point, who will help me if I have no talent to unlock?

    The Tory Party, we made IDS leader, a man no talents.
    I suppose a technical case could be made that he was the first mixed-race leader of a political party (one of his great-grandparents was Japanese).
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.
    Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful
    If you say so - but how will they know? The only people who will find out about it today are anoraks, and if you tell people even a week from now they will probably react by asking if you don't have something more important to criticise him about!
    As mentioned the tabloid press and the Mail will certainly make sure their readers know about it as rightwingers on twitter are doing now, it reinforces the image of Corbyn that for swing voters they will be putting a red republican in No 10 if they vote Labour and that just adds to the hesitation they would have before putting their cross next to the Labour candidate in the privacy of the voting booth
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.
    Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful
    If you say so - but how will they know? The only people who will find out about it today are anoraks, and if you tell people even a week from now they will probably react by asking if you don't have something more important to criticise him about!
    How will they know? I suspect the DM, Sun, Express, Torygraph and other papers will mention it in passing :wink:
    It's pretty weaksauce, particularly if he tweets something out tomorrow or something. "Oh noes, evil Corbyn said congrats to Harry and Meghan a day late!". Maybe I don't know squat, but I think even the partisan press will struggle to have that story cut through.
    I agree, it will be long-forgotten by next week. I was just responding to your 'how will will they know' question.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.
    Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful
    If you say so - but how will they know? The only people who will find out about it today are anoraks, and if you tell people even a week from now they will probably react by asking if you don't have something more important to criticise him about!
    As mentioned the tabloid press and the Mail will certainly make sure their readers know about it as rightwingers on twitter are doing now, it reinforces the image of Corbyn that for swing voters they will be putting a red republican in No 10 if they vote Labour and that just adds to the hesitation they would have before putting their cross next to the Labour candidate in the privacy of the voting booth
    It won't directly change any votes. But it will raise doubts that may cost votes.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    oxfordsimon said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.
    Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful
    If you say so - but how will they know? The only people who will find out about it today are anoraks, and if you tell people even a week from now they will probably react by asking if you don't have something more important to criticise him about!
    As mentioned the tabloid press and the Mail will certainly make sure their readers know about it as rightwingers on twitter are doing now, it reinforces the image of Corbyn that for swing voters they will be putting a red republican in No 10 if they vote Labour and that just adds to the hesitation they would have before putting their cross next to the Labour candidate in the privacy of the voting booth
    It won't directly change any votes. But it will raise doubts that may cost votes.
    Yes and Corbyn needs to change votes to win not raise more doubts in voters minds
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Freggles said:

    Con gain Bootle

    Not quite, though on this poll the Tories would gain Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle Under Lyme, Crewe and Nantwich, Canterbury, Barrow and Furness, Keighley, Ashfield, Stroud, Bishop Auckland and Peterborough from Labour.
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
    Though six of those MPs are likely to enjoy a first term incumbency bonus next time.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/997980420355559424

    Looks like as well as losing voters, UKIP is also losing spellers!
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.
    Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful
    Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    Labour did not poll 42% in 2017!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    Labour did not poll 42% in 2017!
    41% then, still down 2%
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.
    Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful
    Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?
    As he is a member of the royal family, 5th in line to be our future Head of State and Corbyn is Leader of the Opposition and the potential next PM. As I said republican leftwingers won't care but the monarchist majority in this country will
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.
    Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful
    Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?
    As he is a member of the royal family, 5th in line to be our future Head of State and Corbyn is Leader of the Opposition and the potential next PM. As I said republican leftwingers won't care but the monarchist majority in this country will
    99.99% will not give a damn! I don't think Harold Wilson sent a telegram to Princess Anne when she married Mark Phillips in November 1973. A much more significant % of the electorate appears to have serious doubts as to whether Harry is of royal blood at all - though on that matter I am not as persuaded as many clearly are!
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,601
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.
    Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful
    Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?
    Because while about half of the UK electorate shares your indifference, a minority of the UK electorate care quite a lot about what happened yesterday. And quite a number of those will be seriously pissed off by what will be reported correctly as a Corbyn snub. He did find the time send a tweet of congratulations yesterday to someone in London, but it happened to be a Lewisham by-election candidate. When you are still 4% behind in the polls and seemingly going backwards some 8 years into a Conservative government, you really can't afford to piss anyone off unnecessarily.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.
    Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful
    Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?
    Because while about half of the UK electorate shares your indifference, a minority of the UK electorate care quite a lot about what happened yesterday. And quite a number of those will be seriously pissed off by what will be reported correctly as a Corbyn snub. He did find the time send a tweet of congratulations yesterday to someone in London, but it happened to be a Lewisham by-election candidate. When you are still 4% behind in the polls and seemingly going backwards some 8 years into a Conservative government, you really can't afford to piss anyone off unnecessarily.
    I would say that a good 95% share my indifference. Very few people tend to be really ardent Monarchists nowadays and we are talking here about the 'hangers on' - Harry is 6th in line to the throne on one view of his parentage. Party leaders have never been expected to send messages like that. Wilson didn't do it in 1973 - neither did Foot to Charles in 1981 - nor Kinnock to Andrew.The suggestion is a load of nonsense and will be forgotten a week hence.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,002
    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    I think better of him for it.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Dura_Ace said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    I think better of him for it.
    So do I. It would have been gesture politics for him to have sent a message.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,679
    Up to a point, Lord Copper.

    I know the Observer and OGH would like to present this as 'Vince Cable level pegging with Mrs May' - but Vince's levels of "Don't know" technically "neither approve nor disapprove" are twice the level of May & Corbyn's historically - this poll's data isn't up yet, but from April:

    Approve/Disapprove/Neither

    May: 35 / 43 / 22
    Corbyn: 29 / 48 / 23
    Cable: 16 / 34 / 50

    Perhaps Vince's 'Neither Approve nor Disapprove' have shifted to 'approve' - better wait until we see the tables, but it feels a bit like there's some whistling in the dark going on here.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,679
    AndyJS said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    I think better of him for it.
    So do I. It would have been gesture politics for him to have sent a message.
    Cable was quite cheeky:

    https://twitter.com/vincecable/status/997815099766247424
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,679
    edited May 2018
    Was only mentioned in passing yesterday - but the Straits Times picked up on this:

    Singapore orchid on Meghan Markle's wedding veil featuring national flowers of Commonwealth countries

    Malaysia's Bunga Raya Hibiscus, Bangladesh's White Water Lily and Pakistan's Jasmine also made it onto the long veil.

    https://www.straitstimes.com/world/singapore-orchid-on-meghan-markles-wedding-veil-featuring-national-flowers-of-commonwealth
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,679
    Its not only Britain where intellectuals (yes, Mr Grayling, I'm looking at you) have lost the plot over Brexit:

    Europe, says Bernard-Henri Lévy, will collapse if Brexit goes ahead. “It will collapse because when the body is deprived of its brain and its heart, its spirit dies. Britain is not just an additional piece of the European Union, it is the brain.” I never expected to hear a Frenchman say that, certainly not a great French intellectual. But there’s more: “Brexit will be a much bigger catastrophe than most people expect or think, a catastrophe for Britain and a catastrophe for Europe. Europe is unthinkable without Great Britain. Everyone who reflects deeply about Europe knows that the UK is its beating heart.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bernard-henri-levys-brexit-lament-nkrnvwvss?shareToken=94474e76c504b0e9bafab4f68cfe580f
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    CarlottaVance said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    I think better of him for it.
    So do I. It would have been gesture politics for him to have sent a message.
    Cable was quite cheeky:

    https://twitter.com/vincecable/status/997815099766247424
    He forgot to mention the Scottish FA Cup Final. Oooh ! The marginals.
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    justin124 said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.
    Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful
    Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?
    Because while about half of the UK electorate shares your indifference, a minority of the UK electorate care quite a lot about what happened yesterday. And quite a number of those will be seriously pissed off by what will be reported correctly as a Corbyn snub. He did find the time send a tweet of congratulations yesterday to someone in London, but it happened to be a Lewisham by-election candidate. When you are still 4% behind in the polls and seemingly going backwards some 8 years into a Conservative government, you really can't afford to piss anyone off unnecessarily.
    I would say that a good 95% share my indifference. Very few people tend to be really ardent Monarchists nowadays and we are talking here about the 'hangers on' - Harry is 6th in line to the throne on one view of his parentage. Party leaders have never been expected to send messages like that. Wilson didn't do it in 1973 - neither did Foot to Charles in 1981 - nor Kinnock to Andrew.The suggestion is a load of nonsense and will be forgotten a week hence.
    If Corbyn had sent a message, that would have the talking point for a month. The word "hypocrite" would have been used.

    All ardent monarchist [ to those to whom this matters ] do not vote Labour.
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.
    Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful
    Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?
    As he is a member of the royal family, 5th in line to be our future Head of State and Corbyn is Leader of the Opposition and the potential next PM. As I said republican leftwingers won't care but the monarchist majority in this country will
    Your invitation to the Tower is in the post. 6th in line.
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    As I said, he should be doing better (if, in the absence of anything else, we still take something away from polling). I just don't think being on the wrong end of public opinion through not sending a congrats message (yet) will figure into anything.
    Most Labour voters won't care less that Corbyn did not send a message of congratulation, the Tory swing voters Corbyn needs to win over though, especially those who voted Labour from 1997-2005 but have voted Tory since, certainly will and will see it as peevish and disrespectful
    Seriously - do you really think that many people will give a damn about something so obviously trivial? Why should he send them a tweet any more than to the many others who were married yesterday?
    As he is a member of the royal family, 5th in line to be our future Head of State and Corbyn is Leader of the Opposition and the potential next PM. As I said republican leftwingers won't care but the monarchist majority in this country will
    99.99% will not give a damn! I don't think Harold Wilson sent a telegram to Princess Anne when she married Mark Phillips in November 1973. A much more significant % of the electorate appears to have serious doubts as to whether Harry is of royal blood at all - though on that matter I am not as persuaded as many clearly are!
    In which case, my admiration, if any, has actually gone up !
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    How will public opinion find out about it (particularly if he tweets something, say, tomorrow)? No one will remember. And yes, he should be doing better, but given what happened last time he's not going to panic no matter what polls say, even if what happened last time is no guarantee on next time.
    Last time the Tories got 43% in GB, they are now still on 43%. Labour is down 2% from the 42% they got last time.

    All Corbyn did last time was squeeze the leftwing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters behind him, he made virtually no net gains from the Tories in terms of voters on 2015. Next time he has little more leftwing voters to squeeze and will have to win over Tories to become PM, this poll confirms he is still a long way from doing that
    Labour did not poll 42% in 2017!
    41% then, still down 2%
    Actually 40%.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/997921351502614528

    I would have thought that BAME people themselves were best entrusted with unlocking their own talent. What a paternalistic, nanny-state (ok, mixing imagery a bit there) approach. Is that really how Labour thinks racial discrimination is to be overcome - by old bearded white guys claiming the sole power to ethnic success?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,679
    What could possibly go wrong?

    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/998032666908876800
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    CarlottaVance said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    steve_garner said:

    kle4 said:

    A whole 10 points, huh? No doubt Corbyn is devastated.

    Also, why would Cable's score have improved? Has he done anything recently that I was not aware of?

    Corbyn may not be devastated but he should be doing better. His churlish and joyless decision not to congratulate Harry and Meghan today is probably on the wrong side of public opinion.
    I think better of him for it.
    So do I. It would have been gesture politics for him to have sent a message.
    Cable was quite cheeky:

    https://twitter.com/vincecable/status/997815099766247424
    Undortunately the BBC only chose to televise two of them.
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    "An Opinium poll for the Observer also suggests a shift towards support for staying in the single market. In January 2017, 41% wanted to end free movement – and were prepared to leave the single market to do so. Only 32% wanted to stay in the single market, even if it meant keeping free movement rules. This month, however, 40% wanted to prioritise staying in the single market, while only 34% wanted to prioritise ending free movement. The poll also gives the Tories their biggest lead since the general election. They are up three points on 43%, four ahead of Labour."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/19/top-tory-plans-rebellion-to-stay-in-eu-customs-union
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,679
    A reminder of the last speaker defenestration:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1184561/It-like-Mafia-funeral-pudgy-omerta-boys-sidling-squeeze-wrists-whisper-brief-words-respect.html

    What ever Bercow's faults, he was an improvement on Martin - but still Boothroyde best in a long while.....saw her on a number 82 bus once.....
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