It's another symptom of the more general high-street malaise as many people switch to online. As for shopping, so for banking - much reduced footfall in most branches, it becomes harder and harder to justify keeping them open.
You have to be careful on understanding how the figure is worked out too. I know of a branch closure where the bank is now situated in the adjacent Asda. Normally when they do these stories that would count as a closure. I work in the pub industry and know that Camra's figures about pub closures are nonsense as they count a pub closure in their figures even if it reopens shortly after and things like TUPE apply to staff. I think they even include pubs that stop operating as they are being refurbished.
That said I do all my banking online and only go to a bank to pay in a cheque, and they have machines to do that now.
Most surprising part of all that is that you still use cheques.
Mr. Divvie, those with a political interest in stoking division between Scotland and the rest of the UK certainly seem to believe Brussels is lovelier than London. Can't imagine why...
They're obviously much, much better at it than those with a political interest in stoking division between Scotland and the EU. Still, it's nice to see UKIP sinking down to the level of contemptible irrelevance in England that they've consistently achieved in Scotland; a United Kingdom in one thing at least.
It's another symptom of the more general high-street malaise as many people switch to online. As for shopping, so for banking - much reduced footfall in most branches, it becomes harder and harder to justify keeping them open.
You have to be careful on understanding how the figure is worked out too. I know of a branch closure where the bank is now situated in the adjacent Asda. Normally when they do these stories that would count as a closure. I work in the pub industry and know that Camra's figures about pub closures are nonsense as they count a pub closure in their figures even if it reopens shortly after and things like TUPE apply to staff. I think they even include pubs that stop operating as they are being refurbished.
That said I do all my banking online and only go to a bank to pay in a cheque, and they have machines to do that now.
Most surprising part of all that is that you still use cheques.
I only pay them in when I receive them! They do come in handy for payments for a few things my kids do at school, where no online option
Spending money and effort to become clear challenger in never-going-to-change-hands seats is the very definition of a waste of resources.
There's no such thing as a seat that can never change hands. Just varying degrees of likelihood of them doing so. No Lib Dem thinks of any seat as being safe... not even any of our own.
To be fair that wasn't said before 2015 about Lib Dem seats. I recall a lot written here about the Lib Dems "cockroach" like ability to dig in and secure their seats.
I think the reference to "cockroaches" was not so much to holding onto seats, but to still being around and campaigning, despite the chaos and devastation all around.
Spending money and effort to become clear challenger in never-going-to-change-hands seats is the very definition of a waste of resources.
There's no such thing as a seat that can never change hands. Just varying degrees of likelihood of them doing so. No Lib Dem thinks of any seat as being safe... not even any of our own.
Really? Wasn't lib dem overconfidence in 2015 largely based on the idea of "strongholds"?
Supported by all that Ashcroft constituency polling
And ignoring what was being said by pb.com contributors on the ground....
I think that the biggest problem for Lib dems is nothing to do with their own performance or leader but everything to do with Corbyn and the risk he poses. It is no longer safe to vote Lib dem when John McDonnell could end up running the economy. I mean May is not very right wing, having adopted a number of Ed Millibands proposals.
Remind me which party did the Lib Dems go into coalition with in 2010?
Spending money and effort to become clear challenger in never-going-to-change-hands seats is the very definition of a waste of resources.
There's no such thing as a seat that can never change hands. Just varying degrees of likelihood of them doing so. No Lib Dem thinks of any seat as being safe... not even any of our own.
Really? Wasn't lib dem overconfidence in 2015 largely based on the idea of "strongholds"?
Supported by all that Ashcroft constituency polling
And ignoring what was being said by pb.com contributors on the ground....
I think that the biggest problem for Lib dems is nothing to do with their own performance or leader but everything to do with Corbyn and the risk he poses. It is no longer safe to vote Lib dem when John McDonnell could end up running the economy. I mean May is not very right wing, having adopted a number of Ed Millibands proposals.
Remind me which party did the Lib Dems go into coalition with in 2010?
Mr. Divvie, those with a political interest in stoking division between Scotland and the rest of the UK certainly seem to believe Brussels is lovelier than London. Can't imagine why...
Well. I am that rare beast, an opponent of Scottish Independence in 2014 who has converted to the cause following the Brexit referendum.
My reasoning on favouring Brussels can be expressed as a negative factor on London and a positive factor for Brussels.
I accept Fintan O'Toole's analysis that the Brexit vote was primarily an expression of a resurgent English nationalism. I don't think it is good for Scotland to remain a small appendage to a country that is choosing English nationalism over British nationalism. The difference in size of the two nations is too great.
Whereas, with Brussels, even after the UK leaves, the largest country in the EU is much smaller than half of the whole and so cannot dominate to the same extent.
Besides, I think Scotland could do perfectly well independent of both London and Brussels should it choose to do so.
So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?
3.5 - plenty of people who didn't fund the library can be members of a library, so it might be they are arguing they are off the library funding committee but could still ask to be a member
As can the UK in terms of access to Galileo. I think the library analogy is a good one because -this is the key thing - the rules for full membership and external access were setup at the time of founding. The UK helped draft those rules. The rest of the committee don't see a reason to change them as a special case for an ex member. Which is pretty much an analogy for the whole of Brexit.
The difference is that in this case the ex member has a small specialst library (one of the best in the world in its field).
The members of the big library want full access to it, but won’t let the owner of the small library borrow books from them because they think he’ll steal them
I think that's overstating. The UK is good, but not uniquely good.
In Europe it is. Though not in the world, the US, Israel and a few other nations rival our astronomy sector.
The low turnout here confirms my view that Brexit as an issue does not excite most voters - who are now overwhelmingly sick to death of it. If there really had been a burning resentment on that , voters would have come out in much greater numbers and the LibDems would have performed much more strongly. The fact that they failed to do so despite Brexit being the focus of the LibDem campaign persuades me that other matters are much more salient. The Tories did lose circa 40% of their 2017 vote share here and may have been helped by many local voters still having memory of being represnted by a Tory MP - Colin Moynihan.
This is what is so funny about Remainers - their utterly delusional view of the EU.
The EU treaties are absolutely clear - the EU is funded ONLY via the EUs own resources, and the own resources part of the treaty ends on Brexit. No liability whatsoever.
The EU is not process based. They are not law based. They don't follow rules whenever it suits them. They had a tantrum about the Brexit bill, but EXACTLY the same argument also applies for giving the UK a refund. The EU broke their own laws on bailouts; Target 2 is illegal; the current ECB QE program is also illegal. Their obsession with the ECJ is founded on the fact that the ECJ is a political court, not a legal one, which will always turn a blind eye when asked by the 'colleagues'.
Please get a grip on reality. This is nothing to do with treaties, laws, or doing the right thing. The EU are throwing their weight around like they always do, until someone stands up to them. Russia comes to mind over Ukraine. And then you see how powerful the EU really is (not).
There is no evidence at all that the ECJ is a political court. It is a legal court founded to rule on disagreements basing its decisions specifically on the treaties. All their decisions are based on this basic principle.
Indeed they have often ruled against the other EU institutions where they judge they are breaching the terms of the treaties.
Mr. Divvie, those with a political interest in stoking division between Scotland and the rest of the UK certainly seem to believe Brussels is lovelier than London. Can't imagine why...
Well. I am that rare beast, an opponent of Scottish Independence in 2014 who has converted to the cause following the Brexit referendum.
My reasoning on favouring Brussels can be expressed as a negative factor on London and a positive factor for Brussels.
I accept Fintan O'Toole's analysis that the Brexit vote was primarily an expression of a resurgent English nationalism. I don't think it is good for Scotland to remain a small appendage to a country that is choosing English nationalism over British nationalism. The difference in size of the two nations is too great.
Whereas, with Brussels, even after the UK leaves, the largest country in the EU is much smaller than half of the whole and so cannot dominate to the same extent.
Besides, I think Scotland could do perfectly well independent of both London and Brussels should it choose to do so.
Since Wales also voted Leave, your theory is that Wales voted for English nationalism.
Spending money and effort to become clear challenger in never-going-to-change-hands seats is the very definition of a waste of resources.
There's no such thing as a seat that can never change hands. Just varying degrees of likelihood of them doing so. No Lib Dem thinks of any seat as being safe... not even any of our own.
Really? Wasn't lib dem overconfidence in 2015 largely based on the idea of "strongholds"?
Supported by all that Ashcroft constituency polling
And ignoring what was being said by pb.com contributors on the ground....
I think that the biggest problem for Lib dems is nothing to do with their own performance or leader but everything to do with Corbyn and the risk he poses. It is no longer safe to vote Lib dem when John McDonnell could end up running the economy. I mean May is not very right wing, having adopted a number of Ed Millibands proposals.
Remind me which party did the Lib Dems go into coalition with in 2010?
+1.
Not sure I get your point. Lib dems used to be a safe repository for rich southerners to oppose the Tories but not anymore. If you want to oppose the Tories your best bet is Labour, hence their increase at the last election, and if you want to oppose Labour, or I suppose Support Brexit then vote Tory. I've argued on here that Labour only did so well at the last election because no one thought JC would actually be Prime Minister, and therefore he garnered lots of votes without sufficient scrutiny to put people off - Labour were the safe repository. I would expect at the next election for Labour to drop, Tories to be around the same, and recent polling hasn't convinced me otherwise.
It's another symptom of the more general high-street malaise as many people switch to online. As for shopping, so for banking - much reduced footfall in most branches, it becomes harder and harder to justify keeping them open.
You have to be careful on understanding how the figure is worked out too. I know of a branch closure where the bank is now situated in the adjacent Asda. Normally when they do these stories that would count as a closure. I work in the pub industry and know that Camra's figures about pub closures are nonsense as they count a pub closure in their figures even if it reopens shortly after and things like TUPE apply to staff. I think they even include pubs that stop operating as they are being refurbished.
That said I do all my banking online and only go to a bank to pay in a cheque, and they have machines to do that now.
Most surprising part of all that is that you still use cheques.
I only pay them in when I receive them! They do come in handy for payments for a few things my kids do at school, where no online option
Cheques are often more convenient where two signatures are required on a payment. Bank computer systems can provide for such situations but for local clubs, societies, charities and small businesses it's not always worth the trouble of setting up such systems.
Mr. Divvie, those with a political interest in stoking division between Scotland and the rest of the UK certainly seem to believe Brussels is lovelier than London. Can't imagine why...
Well. I am that rare beast, an opponent of Scottish Independence in 2014 who has converted to the cause following the Brexit referendum.
My reasoning on favouring Brussels can be expressed as a negative factor on London and a positive factor for Brussels.
I accept Fintan O'Toole's analysis that the Brexit vote was primarily an expression of a resurgent English nationalism. I don't think it is good for Scotland to remain a small appendage to a country that is choosing English nationalism over British nationalism. The difference in size of the two nations is too great.
Whereas, with Brussels, even after the UK leaves, the largest country in the EU is much smaller than half of the whole and so cannot dominate to the same extent.
Besides, I think Scotland could do perfectly well independent of both London and Brussels should it choose to do so.
Since Wales also voted Leave, your theory is that Wales voted for English nationalism.
Spending money and effort to become clear challenger in never-going-to-change-hands seats is the very definition of a waste of resources.
There's no such thing as a seat that can never change hands. Just varying degrees of likelihood of them doing so. No Lib Dem thinks of any seat as being safe... not even any of our own.
Really? Wasn't lib dem overconfidence in 2015 largely based on the idea of "strongholds"?
Supported by all that Ashcroft constituency polling
And ignoring what was being said by pb.com contributors on the ground....
I think that the biggest problem for Lib dems is nothing to do with their own performance or leader but everything to do with Corbyn and the risk he poses. It is no longer safe to vote Lib dem when John McDonnell could end up running the economy. I mean May is not very right wing, having adopted a number of Ed Millibands proposals.
The problem with that line of argument is that, even though a government headed by Corbyn and Macdonald would probably be a disaster, would it really be so much worse than the chaos and incompetence of Mrs May and her gang? They are now so disastrous for the country that their being replaced by Labour is not that much of a threat.
The one thing I like about the changed approach on Scottish independence is the honesty. I would hope that they will propose to use their own currency or the Euro. They might be worse off, but that doesn't make it the wrong decision, life is about more than money.
My main issue at the moment with Brexit is that we are dishonestly told that people wouldn't vote to make themselves worse off. This is patently nonsense as evidenced by the income levels of those voting for Labour in London.
Can't see what s very distant second does for the Lib Dems . A waste of resources.
Oh come on... It establishes us as the clear challenger in the seat. Oh, and fighting against Labour is never a waste of resources - your sense of entitlement is very much on show today.
Not really. The LibDems fell back to third place at Witney in 2017 despite their encouraging by election performance there.
In Europe it is. Though not in the world, the US, Israel and a few other nations rival our astronomy sector.
The Galileo FOCs are made by OHB in Germany.
The real victim in all this is the poor little twat from the UK who won the kids' drawing competition to have a satellite named after him. His "Patrick" satellite was due to be launched in 2020.
The one thing I like about the changed approach on Scottish independence is the honesty. I would hope that they will propose to use their own currency or the Euro. They might be worse off, but that doesn't make it the wrong decision, life is about more than money.
My main issue at the moment with Brexit is that we are dishonestly told that people wouldn't vote to make themselves worse off. This is patently nonsense as evidenced by the income levels of those voting for Labour in London.
The maintenance of very high quality, well funded, publicly run, heavily subsidised public services such as buses, trains and tubes, hospitals and schools, is central to the real wealth of the London upper middle class. So it’s not necessarily true that their strong Labour allegiance is against their own self interest.
Spending money and effort to become clear challenger in never-going-to-change-hands seats is the very definition of a waste of resources.
There's no such thing as a seat that can never change hands. Just varying degrees of likelihood of them doing so. No Lib Dem thinks of any seat as being safe... not even any of our own.
Really? Wasn't lib dem overconfidence in 2015 largely based on the idea of "strongholds"?
Supported by all that Ashcroft constituency polling
And ignoring what was being said by pb.com contributors on the ground....
I think that the biggest problem for Lib dems is nothing to do with their own performance or leader but everything to do with Corbyn and the risk he poses. It is no longer safe to vote Lib dem when John McDonnell could end up running the economy. I mean May is not very right wing, having adopted a number of Ed Millibands proposals.
Remind me which party did the Lib Dems go into coalition with in 2010?
+1.
Not sure I get your point. Lib dems used to be a safe repository for rich southerners to oppose the Tories but not anymore. If you want to oppose the Tories your best bet is Labour, hence their increase at the last election, and if you want to oppose Labour, or I suppose Support Brexit then vote Tory. I've argued on here that Labour only did so well at the last election because no one thought JC would actually be Prime Minister, and therefore he garnered lots of votes without sufficient scrutiny to put people off - Labour were the safe repository. I would expect at the next election for Labour to drop, Tories to be around the same, and recent polling hasn't convinced me otherwise.
Given that the LDs voted to go into coalition with the Tories, it’s hard to see voting for them as a gateway to a Labour government.
If Labour only did well because Corbyn wasn’t going to be PM, then you’d expect a much bigger drop off in Labour’s VI share. Although polls didn’t tell us much about what would happen in 2017, so they may not tell us much about what will happen in a future GE either.
It's another symptom of the more general high-street malaise as many people switch to online. As for shopping, so for banking - much reduced footfall in most branches, it becomes harder and harder to justify keeping them open.
You have to be careful on understanding how the figure is worked out too. I know of a branch closure where the bank is now situated in the adjacent Asda. Normally when they do these stories that would count as a closure. I work in the pub industry and know that Camra's figures about pub closures are nonsense as they count a pub closure in their figures even if it reopens shortly after and things like TUPE apply to staff. I think they even include pubs that stop operating as they are being refurbished.
That said I do all my banking online and only go to a bank to pay in a cheque, and they have machines to do that now.
Most surprising part of all that is that you still use cheques.
I only pay them in when I receive them! They do come in handy for payments for a few things my kids do at school, where no online option
They should have been abolished years ago, forcing the likes of schools to digitise.
Spending money and effort to become clear challenger in never-going-to-change-hands seats is the very definition of a waste of resources.
There's no such thing as a seat that can never change hands. Just varying degrees of likelihood of them doing so. No Lib Dem thinks of any seat as being safe... not even any of our own.
Really? Wasn't lib dem overconfidence in 2015 largely based on the idea of "strongholds"?
Supported by all that Ashcroft constituency polling
And ignoring what was being said by pb.com contributors on the ground....
I think that the biggest problem for Lib dems is nothing to do with their own performance or leader but everything to do with Corbyn and the risk he poses. It is no longer safe to vote Lib dem when John McDonnell could end up running the economy. I mean May is not very right wing, having adopted a number of Ed Millibands proposals.
Remind me which party did the Lib Dems go into coalition with in 2010?
+1.
Not sure I get your point. Lib dems used to be a safe repository for rich southerners to oppose the Tories but not anymore. If you want to oppose the Tories your best bet is Labour, hence their increase at the last election, and if you want to oppose Labour, or I suppose Support Brexit then vote Tory. I've argued on here that Labour only did so well at the last election because no one thought JC would actually be Prime Minister, and therefore he garnered lots of votes without sufficient scrutiny to put people off - Labour were the safe repository. I would expect at the next election for Labour to drop, Tories to be around the same, and recent polling hasn't convinced me otherwise.
Given that the LDs voted to go into coalition with the Tories, it’s hard to see voting for them as a gateway to a Labour government.
If Labour only did well because Corbyn wasn’t going to be PM, then you’d expect a much bigger drop off in Labour’s VI share. Although polls didn’t tell us much about what would happen in 2017, so they may not tell us much about what will happen in a future GE either.
Corbyn doesn't exist in a vacuum though. The utter awfulness of the Tory campaign and May in particular was possibly even more of a factor.
The problem with that line of argument is that, even though a government headed by Corbyn and Macdonald would probably be a disaster, would it really be so much worse than the chaos and incompetence of Mrs May and her gang? They are now so disastrous for the country that their being replaced by Labour is not that much of a threat.
Of course it would be an immense disaster, and what's more it would be a disaster on top of any damage done by Brexit. It's not either-or: you'd get both, cumulatively.
As it happens, this government is actually quite competent: unemployment is very low, the economy is trundling along as well as could be expected given the referendum result, they are getting on with infrastructure, boosting housing, and pursuing small but welcome reforms in other areas . Taxes are being collected, strikes are at an all-time low, public services are in reasonable shape given the economic challenges, I'm not quite sure what you think is disastrous about it - it's better than most of the post-war governments we have had, despite the Brexit chaos.
Mr. Divvie, those with a political interest in stoking division between Scotland and the rest of the UK certainly seem to believe Brussels is lovelier than London. Can't imagine why...
It's another symptom of the more general high-street malaise as many people switch to online. As for shopping, so for banking - much reduced footfall in most branches, it becomes harder and harder to justify keeping them open.
You have to be careful on understanding how the figure is worked out too. I know of a branch closure where the bank is now situated in the adjacent Asda. Normally when they do these stories that would count as a closure. I work in the pub industry and know that Camra's figures about pub closures are nonsense as they count a pub closure in their figures even if it reopens shortly after and things like TUPE apply to staff. I think they even include pubs that stop operating as they are being refurbished.
That said I do all my banking online and only go to a bank to pay in a cheque, and they have machines to do that now.
Most surprising part of all that is that you still use cheques.
I only pay them in when I receive them! They do come in handy for payments for a few things my kids do at school, where no online option
They should have been abolished years ago, forcing the likes of schools to digitise.
Certain industries are built on cheque transactions - including mine.
If there is market demand, and there in, why do you think they should be abolished?
I note the Gov't is funding via fiscal drag on keeping the tax thresholds static in 2020 - a funding suggestion I put forward as the most politically viable in a comment on here.
Do I think the LDs could come a solid second ? Yes unless the Greens get some local traction early but I still think a 5,000+ majority for Labour on a 35-40% turnout.
Not bad - slightly off on the turnout.
I went over and did a couple of visits for Lucy Salek, the LD candidate. Compared with the by-elections of old, this wasn't as big an LD effort but the dedicated core of by-election helpers many (not surprisingly) from London came to help.
Obviously, one comparison is with the 2017 GE but the Wards which made up the constituency voted in the local elections last month and on total number of votes cast I got to LAB 58.6% CON 19.4% LD 12.9%, Green 6.9%.
Looking at those results in more detail, the Greens often put up a single or just two candidates in a 3-member Ward and often outpolled both the LDs and Conservatives. There is a Green presence in Lewisham but for whatever reason (resources) they weren't able to translate that into support for their candidate in the by-election who ended up on 3.6%.
A solid if unspectacular effort for the LDs and given where expectations had been managed by the excellent canvass returns, almost exactly what was expected.
Plenty for both Labour and the Conservatives to feel positive about as well - Labour got part of the vote out but more than enough and although they hold all the Council seats, Lewisham isn't Newham and the Labour dominance isn't solid yet. The Conservative candidate, Ross Archer, is well known in Grove Park and probably did okay there and the Conservative vote didn't disintegrate.
It's a huge task in a short campaign to establish any kind of presence and the tactic now seems to be to go for short campaigns to prevent opposition parties gaining traction.
It's another symptom of the more general high-street malaise as many people switch to online. As for shopping, so for banking - much reduced footfall in most branches, it becomes harder and harder to justify keeping them open.
You have to be careful on understanding how the figure is worked out too. I know of a branch closure where the bank is now situated in the adjacent Asda. Normally when they do these stories that would count as a closure. I work in the pub industry and know that Camra's figures about pub closures are nonsense as they count a pub closure in their figures even if it reopens shortly after and things like TUPE apply to staff. I think they even include pubs that stop operating as they are being refurbished.
That said I do all my banking online and only go to a bank to pay in a cheque, and they have machines to do that now.
Most surprising part of all that is that you still use cheques.
I only pay them in when I receive them! They do come in handy for payments for a few things my kids do at school, where no online option
They should have been abolished years ago, forcing the likes of schools to digitise.
Most of the schools in my area, including my son's school, use ParentPay. I haven't written a cheque in ages.
That sounds serious. Maybe Merkel will fall this weekend.
It's a tweet. A CSU comment is that the report is "Quatsch" (rubbish).
Yup, it's not happening (yet). It's just a Horst case scenario.
lol, exactly.
What's happening is that Merkel is negotiationg with Seehofer (CSU Interior Minister) about whether to do something unilaterally about refusing refugees turned away by Austria. Merkel wants to kic the can down the road to the EU Summit later this month. Seehofer says summit, shummits, they won't decide anything let's get on with it. Possible compomise is some sort of bilateral temporary fudge. (Sounds familiar?)
Mr. Divvie, those with a political interest in stoking division between Scotland and the rest of the UK certainly seem to believe Brussels is lovelier than London. Can't imagine why...
better chips and beer for starters MD
Definitely not better beer. The London microbreweries are running rings around the rest of the country (and the larger European beer brands as well). 10 years ago you were probably correct, today London is way, way beyond the rest of the UK wrt to beer quality.
It's another symptom of the more general high-street malaise as many people switch to online. As for shopping, so for banking - much reduced footfall in most branches, it becomes harder and harder to justify keeping them open.
You have to be careful on understanding how the figure is worked out too. I know of a branch closure where the bank is now situated in the adjacent Asda. Normally when they do these stories that would count as a closure. I work in the pub industry and know that Camra's figures about pub closures are nonsense as they count a pub closure in their figures even if it reopens shortly after and things like TUPE apply to staff. I think they even include pubs that stop operating as they are being refurbished.
That said I do all my banking online and only go to a bank to pay in a cheque, and they have machines to do that now.
Most surprising part of all that is that you still use cheques.
I only pay them in when I receive them! They do come in handy for payments for a few things my kids do at school, where no online option
They should have been abolished years ago, forcing the likes of schools to digitise.
Certain industries are built on cheque transactions - including mine.
If there is market demand, and there in, why do you think they should be abolished?
The main winners from cheque abolition would be Visa, Mastercard, Amex and Paypal as merchants have to switch to a payment taking system which has fees. Although business banks do charge for cheques to be cashed I think too.
CSU to join the AfD in opposition to the CDU and SPD coalition government?
If they tried that, I'd expect a second election in short order with the CDU standing across Bavaria and annihilating the CSU.
Two reasons - firstly the AfD are absolutely toxic outside their voter base - Germans have long memories. And Bavaria isn't the strongest AfD area (such as the old East Germany) It's one thing campaigning against migration, it's another cosying up to neo-Nazis. Secondly Merkel is seen as a much more credible leader than Seehofer and has come down for personal visits to Munich to rescue CSU campaigns in the past few years.
It's also a safe enough area and the opposition sufficiently split that it's unlikely to let in 3rd parties through the middle. So I'm far from convinced the CSU can afford to call the bluff.
Mr. Divvie, those with a political interest in stoking division between Scotland and the rest of the UK certainly seem to believe Brussels is lovelier than London. Can't imagine why...
better chips and beer for starters MD
Definitely not better beer. The London microbreweries are running rings around the rest of the country (and the larger European beer brands as well). 10 years ago you were probably correct, today London is way, way beyond the rest of the UK wrt to beer quality.
There are good microbreweries all over the country. One of the best developments of the past ten years.
Spending money and effort to become clear challenger in never-going-to-change-hands seats is the very definition of a waste of resources.
There's no such thing as a seat that can never change hands. Just varying degrees of likelihood of them doing so. No Lib Dem thinks of any seat as being safe... not even any of our own.
Really? Wasn't lib dem overconfidence in 2015 largely based on the idea of "strongholds"?
Supported by all that Ashcroft constituency polling
And ignoring what was being said by pb.com contributors on the ground....
+1.
Corbyn doesn't exist in a vacuum though. The utter awfulness of the Tory campaign and May in particular was possibly even more of a factor.
And thats even before we get to Brexit.
If that’s the case, given that according to polling more voters are rating May over Corbyn, and the awful campaign is ‘over’ (with Labour having an especially bad last six months) then you’d expect Labour’s VI to totally collapse. But as I said before, polls don’t tell us everything and can be volatile.
It should be said that many of Corbyn’s voters were not Con to Lab switchers (although some were) but rather the left vote coalescing around him so I’m sceptical that the awfulness of Tory campaign was the overwhelming definitive factor (although obviously it’s a factor). I think centre left and left voters were reminded of the prospect of a Con big majority govt, and that pushed them towards Corbyn. There are also other issues, such as Labour being able to successfully project being the socially liberal party. Then there’s Corbyn’s anti austerity stance, issues with intergenetational unfairness etc.
It's another symptom of the more general high-street malaise as many people switch to online. As for shopping, so for banking - much reduced footfall in most branches, it becomes harder and harder to justify keeping them open.
You have to be careful on understanding how the figure is worked out too. I know of a branch closure where the bank is now situated in the adjacent Asda. Normally when they do these stories that would count as a closure. I work in the pub industry and know that Camra's figures about pub closures are nonsense as they count a pub closure in their figures even if it reopens shortly after and things like TUPE apply to staff. I think they even include pubs that stop operating as they are being refurbished.
That said I do all my banking online and only go to a bank to pay in a cheque, and they have machines to do that now.
Most surprising part of all that is that you still use cheques.
I only pay them in when I receive them! They do come in handy for payments for a few things my kids do at school, where no online option
They should have been abolished years ago, forcing the likes of schools to digitise.
Certain industries are built on cheque transactions - including mine.
If there is market demand, and there in, why do you think they should be abolished?
The main winners from cheque abolition would be Visa, Mastercard, Amex and Paypal as merchants have to switch to a payment taking system which has fees. Although business banks do charge for cheques to be cashed I think too.
Indeed. The problem is we'd go from a small per cheque charge to a % of transaction charge.
Mant of the cheques i receive are four figure amounts, so the difference is not insignificant.
MCDONALD, Tosh (Labour Party) 1,084 WHITWOOD, Chris (The Yorkshire Party) 570 BUCKLEY, Julie (Green Party) 294 GREENHALGH, Carol (The Conservative Party Candidate) 260 SMITH, Ian Michael (Liberal Democrats) 66 PENDRY, Gareth (Independent) 43
Mr. Divvie, those with a political interest in stoking division between Scotland and the rest of the UK certainly seem to believe Brussels is lovelier than London. Can't imagine why...
better chips and beer for starters MD
Definitely not better beer. The London microbreweries are running rings around the rest of the country (and the larger European beer brands as well). 10 years ago you were probably correct, today London is way, way beyond the rest of the UK wrt to beer quality.
What a load of shite. Quality ale is brewed all over the country. Excellent beers in Yorkshire.
And I'd rather have a pint of cask from a mid-size or large brewery than an overpriced can of 'American Style IPA' from a self-styled 'Craft' brewery.
MCDONALD, Tosh (Labour Party) 1,084 WHITWOOD, Chris (The Yorkshire Party) 570 BUCKLEY, Julie (Green Party) 294 GREENHALGH, Carol (The Conservative Party Candidate) 260 SMITH, Ian Michael (Liberal Democrats) 66 PENDRY, Gareth (Independent) 43
Mr. Divvie, those with a political interest in stoking division between Scotland and the rest of the UK certainly seem to believe Brussels is lovelier than London. Can't imagine why...
better chips and beer for starters MD
Definitely not better beer. The London microbreweries are running rings around the rest of the country (and the larger European beer brands as well). 10 years ago you were probably correct, today London is way, way beyond the rest of the UK wrt to beer quality.
There are good microbreweries all over the country. One of the best developments of the past ten years.
All thanks to changes in the way beer duty works introduced by the much-maligned G Brown.
CSU to join the AfD in opposition to the CDU and SPD coalition government?
If they tried that, I'd expect a second election in short order with the CDU standing across Bavaria and annihilating the CSU.
Two reasons - firstly the AfD are absolutely toxic outside their voter base - Germans have long memories. And Bavaria isn't the strongest AfD area (such as the old East Germany) It's one thing campaigning against migration, it's another cosying up to neo-Nazis. Secondly Merkel is seen as a much more credible leader than Seehofer and has come down for personal visits to Munich to rescue CSU campaigns in the past few years.
It's also a safe enough area and the opposition sufficiently split that it's unlikely to let in 3rd parties through the middle. So I'm far from convinced the CSU can afford to call the bluff.
I disagree, Bavaria is much more socially conservative and right-wing and hostile to migration than the rest of Germany and indeed closer to Austria than it is to Berlin and Hamburg.
It has been CSU for decades, indeed the latest state poll gives the CSU and AfD 55% combined
Mr. Divvie, those with a political interest in stoking division between Scotland and the rest of the UK certainly seem to believe Brussels is lovelier than London. Can't imagine why...
better chips and beer for starters MD
Definitely not better beer. The London microbreweries are running rings around the rest of the country (and the larger European beer brands as well). 10 years ago you were probably correct, today London is way, way beyond the rest of the UK wrt to beer quality.
What a load of shite. Quality ale is brewed all over the country. Excellent beers in Yorkshire.
And I'd rather have a pint of cask from a mid-size or large brewery than an overpriced can of 'American Style IPA' from a self-styled 'Craft' brewery.
Agreed.
A pint of Adnams (anything, pretty much, but especially Ghost Ship) knocks the fizzy stuff out of the park.
Mr. Divvie, those with a political interest in stoking division between Scotland and the rest of the UK certainly seem to believe Brussels is lovelier than London. Can't imagine why...
better chips and beer for starters MD
Definitely not better beer. The London microbreweries are running rings around the rest of the country (and the larger European beer brands as well). 10 years ago you were probably correct, today London is way, way beyond the rest of the UK wrt to beer quality.
What a load of shite. Quality ale is brewed all over the country. Excellent beers in Yorkshire.
And I'd rather have a pint of cask from a mid-size or large brewery than an overpriced can of 'American Style IPA' from a self-styled 'Craft' brewery.
There's a lot of good beer in London that is not an IPA. I had an amazing porter from Hackney (The Five Points Brewing Co) when I was last in London.
Mr. Divvie, those with a political interest in stoking division between Scotland and the rest of the UK certainly seem to believe Brussels is lovelier than London. Can't imagine why...
better chips and beer for starters MD
Definitely not better beer. The London microbreweries are running rings around the rest of the country (and the larger European beer brands as well). 10 years ago you were probably correct, today London is way, way beyond the rest of the UK wrt to beer quality.
What a load of shite. Quality ale is brewed all over the country. Excellent beers in Yorkshire.
And I'd rather have a pint of cask from a mid-size or large brewery than an overpriced can of 'American Style IPA' from a self-styled 'Craft' brewery.
You've still got Fuller's in London who make very, very nice ales. However, you're writing off loads of great breweries in London who don't just produce IPAs and APAs. The Hackney brewery make loads of great stuff. Got to hand it to those hipsters, they know how to make a good beer.
Spending money and effort to become clear challenger in never-going-to-change-hands seats is the very definition of a waste of resources.
There's no such thing as a seat that can never change hands. Just varying degrees of likelihood of them doing so. No Lib Dem thinks of any seat as being safe... not even any of our own.
Really? Wasn't lib dem overconfidence in 2015 largely based on the idea of "strongholds"?
Supported by all that Ashcroft constituency polling
And ignoring what was being said by pb.com contributors on the ground....
+1.
Corbyn doesn't exist in a vacuum though. The utter awfulness of the Tory campaign and May in particular was possibly even more of a factor.
And thats even before we get to Brexit.
If that’s the case, given that according to polling more voters are rating May over Corbyn, and the awful campaign is ‘over’ (with Labour having an especially bad last six months) then you’d expect Labour’s VI to totally collapse. But as I said before, polls don’t tell us everything and can be volatile.
It should be said that many of Corbyn’s voters were not Con to Lab switchers (although some were) but rather the left vote coalescing around him so I’m sceptical that the awfulness of Tory campaign was the overwhelming definitive factor (although obviously it’s a factor). I think centre left and left voters were reminded of the prospect of a Con big majority govt, and that pushed them towards Corbyn. There are also other issues, such as Labour being able to successfully project being the socially liberal party. Then there’s Corbyn’s anti austerity stance, issues with intergenetational unfairness etc.
There is more to it that that though. The combined Con+UKIP vote share fell from about 60% at its peak in late April to about 45% on election day, so there was a clear right-to-left swing during the campaign, only some of which can be accounted for by socially conservative ex-Lab UKIP voters 'going home'.
Spending money and effort to become clear challenger in never-going-to-change-hands seats is the very definition of a waste of resources.
There's no such thing as a seat that can never change hands. Just varying degrees of likelihood of them doing so. No Lib Dem thinks of any seat as being safe... not even any of our own.
Really? Wasn't lib dem overconfidence in 2015 largely based on the idea of "strongholds"?
Supported by all that Ashcroft constituency polling
And ignoring what was being said by pb.com contributors on the ground....
+1.
Corbyn doesn't exist in a vacuum though. The utter awfulness of the Tory campaign and May in particular was possibly even more of a factor.
And thats even before we get to Brexit.
If that’s the case, given that according to polling more voters are rating May over Corbyn, and the awful campaign is ‘over’ (with Labour having an especially bad last six months) then you’d expect Labour’s VI to totally collapse. But as I said before, polls don’t tell us everything and can be volatile.
It should be said that many of Corbyn’s voters were not Con to Lab switchers (although some were) but rather the left vote coalescing around him so I’m sceptical that the awfulness of Tory campaign was the overwhelming definitive factor (although obviously it’s a factor). I think centre left and left voters were reminded of the prospect of a Con big majority govt, and that pushed them towards Corbyn. There are also other issues, such as Labour being able to successfully project being the socially liberal party. Then there’s Corbyn’s anti austerity stance, issues with intergenetational unfairness etc.
There is more to it that that though. The combined Con+UKIP vote share fell from about 60% at its peak in late April to about 45% on election day, so there was a clear right-to-left swing during the campaign, only some of which can be accounted for by socially conservative ex-Lab UKIP voters 'going home'.
Surely one of the biggest drivers was to tell May that a hard Brexit was unwanted.
So as I understand it from R4 this morning on Galileo, the UK is like a member of a club, who contributed to a new library when a member, and then after he resigned, still wants to be able to take books away rather than just come in to use the library?
3.5 - plenty of people who didn't fund the library can be members of a library, so it might be they are arguing they are off the library funding committee but could still ask to be a member
Our issue is full access. Plenty of third countries have partial access.
Plenty of clubs have tiered memberships with different perks. All or nothing is not always a sensible approach. We want amazon prime not just amazon.
Amazon is a commercial service, not a membership club.
It was an analogy, feel free to substitute actual clubs the point was the same.
Mr. Divvie, those with a political interest in stoking division between Scotland and the rest of the UK certainly seem to believe Brussels is lovelier than London. Can't imagine why...
better chips and beer for starters MD
Definitely not better beer. The London microbreweries are running rings around the rest of the country (and the larger European beer brands as well). 10 years ago you were probably correct, today London is way, way beyond the rest of the UK wrt to beer quality.
What a load of shite. Quality ale is brewed all over the country. Excellent beers in Yorkshire.
And I'd rather have a pint of cask from a mid-size or large brewery than an overpriced can of 'American Style IPA' from a self-styled 'Craft' brewery.
You've still got Fuller's in London who make very, very nice ales. However, you're writing off loads of great breweries in London who don't just produce IPAs and APAs. The Hackney brewery make loads of great stuff. Got to hand it to those hipsters, they know how to make a good beer.
I'm not writing off anyone, as long as they produce cask ale. It is the cans of 'craft' beer that I turn my nose up to.
I used to enjoy Fullers when I lived in the Smoke.
Spending money and effort to become clear challenger in never-going-to-change-hands seats is the very definition of a waste of resources.
There's no such thing as a seat that can never change hands. Just varying degrees of likelihood of them doing so. No Lib Dem thinks of any seat as being safe... not even any of our own.
Really? Wasn't lib dem overconfidence in 2015 largely based on the idea of "strongholds"?
Supported by all that Ashcroft constituency polling
And ignoring what was being said by pb.com contributors on the ground....
+1.
Corbyn doesn't exist in a vacuum though. The utter awfulness of the Tory campaign and May in particular was possibly even more of a factor.
And thats even before we get to Brexit.
If that’s the case, given that according to polling more voters are rating May over Corbyn, and the awful campaign is ‘over’ (with Labour having an especially bad last six months) then you’d expect Labour’s VI to totally collapse. But as I said before, polls don’t tell us everything and can be volatile.
It should be said that many of Corbyn’s voters were not Con to Lab switchers (although some were) but rather the left vote coalescing around him so I’m sceptical that the awfulness of Tory campaign was the overwhelming definitive factor (although obviously it’s a factor). I think centre left and left voters were reminded of the prospect of a Con big majority govt, and that pushed them towards Corbyn. There are also other issues, such as Labour being able to successfully project being the socially liberal party. Then there’s Corbyn’s anti austerity stance, issues with intergenetational unfairness etc.
There is more to it that that though. The combined Con+UKIP vote share fell from about 60% at its peak in late April to about 45% on election day, so there was a clear right-to-left swing during the campaign, only some of which can be accounted for by socially conservative ex-Lab UKIP voters 'going home'.
The main net gains from 2015 were UKIP to Labour from the right of centre parties, there was virtually no net movement from 2015 to 2017 from Tory to Labour
The problem with that line of argument is that, even though a government headed by Corbyn and Macdonald would probably be a disaster, would it really be so much worse than the chaos and incompetence of Mrs May and her gang? They are now so disastrous for the country that their being replaced by Labour is not that much of a threat.
Of course it would be an immense disaster, and what's more it would be a disaster on top of any damage done by Brexit. It's not either-or: you'd get both, cumulatively.
As it happens, this government is actually quite competent: unemployment is very low, the economy is trundling along as well as could be expected given the referendum result, they are getting on with infrastructure, boosting housing, and pursuing small but welcome reforms in other areas . Taxes are being collected, strikes are at an all-time low, public services are in reasonable shape given the economic challenges, I'm not quite sure what you think is disastrous about it - it's better than most of the post-war governments we have had, despite the Brexit chaos.
The host is a Labour Party member horrified by Corbyn, and is grudgingly respectful of the competence of the government. Probably not too disimilar to my own view.
CSU to join the AfD in opposition to the CDU and SPD coalition government?
If they tried that, I'd expect a second election in short order with the CDU standing across Bavaria and annihilating the CSU.
Two reasons - firstly the AfD are absolutely toxic outside their voter base - Germans have long memories. And Bavaria isn't the strongest AfD area (such as the old East Germany) It's one thing campaigning against migration, it's another cosying up to neo-Nazis. Secondly Merkel is seen as a much more credible leader than Seehofer and has come down for personal visits to Munich to rescue CSU campaigns in the past few years.
It's also a safe enough area and the opposition sufficiently split that it's unlikely to let in 3rd parties through the middle. So I'm far from convinced the CSU can afford to call the bluff.
I disagree, Bavaria is much more socially conservative and right-wing and hostile to migration than the rest of Germany and indeed closer to Austria than it is to Berlin and Hamburg.
It has been CSU for decades, indeed the latest state poll gives the CSU and AfD 55% combined
Nah, think Kent and Surrey - it's the richest area of Germany, and deeply catholic. The reason it's been CSU for donkey's years is they are the sister party of the CDU and the CDU don't stand against them. There's a distinct party as Bavaria has such a strong regional identity, there's an independence movement and you'll see the blue and white flags not the national flags wherever you go. I posted yesterday it's like the Scots Tories opposing the British Tories, but in a much stronger area.
Were the CSU to break away and oppose the CDU I think they would have the rudest of awakenings and find that Angela Merkel is a lot more popular than they counted on - even allowing for people generally agreeing on immigration.
MCDONALD, Tosh (Labour Party) 1,084 WHITWOOD, Chris (The Yorkshire Party) 570 BUCKLEY, Julie (Green Party) 294 GREENHALGH, Carol (The Conservative Party Candidate) 260 SMITH, Ian Michael (Liberal Democrats) 66 PENDRY, Gareth (Independent) 43
We are constantly told the south is complacent about the SNP, and to be fair writing them off would be a tremendous mistake, but it's funny how it isn't deemed to be complacency when the SNP once again act as though their grievances are universal and victory inevitable.
They might win yet. I would urge any union supporters not to take the union for granted. But the idea the complacency only ever goes one way is not supportable I think.
Apropos of nothing (other than as a non-drinker, I can't contribute to the Great Beer Debate), I am really enjoying the latest album "V" by Wooden Shjips......a repeat play job, which is rather rare these days.
Mr. Divvie, those with a political interest in stoking division between Scotland and the rest of the UK certainly seem to believe Brussels is lovelier than London. Can't imagine why...
better chips and beer for starters MD
Definitely not better beer. The London microbreweries are running rings around the rest of the country (and the larger European beer brands as well). 10 years ago you were probably correct, today London is way, way beyond the rest of the UK wrt to beer quality.
There are good microbreweries all over the country. One of the best developments of the past ten years.
All thanks to changes in the way beer duty works introduced by the much-maligned G Brown.
I will be happy to raise a glass to him in thanks later today, National Beer Day.
CSU to join the AfD in opposition to the CDU and SPD coalition government?
If they tried that, I'd expect a second election in short order with the CDU standing across Bavaria and annihilating the CSU.
Two reasons - firstly the AfD are absolutely toxic outside their voter base - Germans have long memories. And Bavaria isn't the strongest AfD area (such as the old East Germany) It's one thing campaigning against migration, it's another cosying up to neo-Nazis. Secondly Merkel is seen as a much more credible leader than Seehofer and has come down for personal visits to Munich to rescue CSU campaigns in the past few years.
It's also a safe enough area and the opposition sufficiently split that it's unlikely to let in 3rd parties through the middle. So I'm far from convinced the CSU can afford to call the bluff.
I disagree, Bavaria is much more socially conservative and right-wing and hostile to migration than the rest of Germany and indeed closer to Austria than it is to Berlin and Hamburg.
It has been CSU for decades, indeed the latest state poll gives the CSU and AfD 55% combined
Nah, think Kent and Surrey - it's the richest area of Germany, and deeply catholic. The reason it's been CSU for donkey's years is they are the sister party of the CDU and the CDU don't stand against them. There's a distinct party as Bavaria has such a strong regional identity, there's an independence movement and you'll see the blue and white flags not the national flags wherever you go. I posted yesterday it's like the Scots Tories opposing the British Tories, but in a much stronger area.
Were the CSU to break away and oppose the CDU I think they would have the rudest of awakenings and find that Angela Merkel is a lot more popular than they counted on - even allowing for people generally agreeing on immigration.
Bavaria has a strong regional identity but is also by far the most socially conservative and traditional right part of Germany, Hitler began his rise there with the Munich Beer Hall Putsch and was of course originally Austrian. The CSU could do a deal with the AfD as the Austrian Peoples' Party has done with the Freedom Party in a way the CDU could not.
Merkel is less popular in Bavaria than she is in Northern Germany and her native East
Nah, think Kent and Surrey - it's the richest area of Germany, and deeply catholic. The reason it's been CSU for donkey's years is they are the sister party of the CDU and the CDU don't stand against them. There's a distinct party as Bavaria has such a strong regional identity, there's an independence movement and you'll see the blue and white flags not the national flags wherever you go. I posted yesterday it's like the Scots Tories opposing the British Tories, but in a much stronger area.
Were the CSU to break away and oppose the CDU I think they would have the rudest of awakenings and find that Angela Merkel is a lot more popular than they counted on - even allowing for people generally agreeing on immigration.
I think the CDU is more popular than Merkel, she is definitely a net drag on the party. In fact I think if the CSU broke away from the Union then they would gain votes as long as Merkel was leader of the CDU.
I also doubt very much they would go into coalition with AfD. As we've just seen in Italy, as soon as the hard right are legitimised they gain massively. LN have gone from their result of about 17% to almost 30% in the national polls. I think the CDU and CSU will both be wary of lessons from Italy (LN replacing Forza) and Switzerland (SVP replacing the FDP). If AfD are legitimised by government they will make huge gains on the centre right.
Spending money and effort to become clear challenger in never-going-to-change-hands seats is the very definition of a waste of resources.
There's no such thing as a seat that can never change hands. Just varying degrees of likelihood of them doing so. No Lib Dem thinks of any seat as being safe... not even any of our own.
Really? Wasn't lib dem overconfidence in 2015 largely based on the idea of "strongholds"?
Supported by all that Ashcroft constituency polling
And ignoring what was being said by pb.com contributors on the ground....
I think that the biggest problem for Lib dems is nothing to do with their own performance or leader but everything to do with Corbyn and the risk he poses. It is no longer safe to vote Lib dem when John McDonnell could end up running the economy. I mean May is not very right wing, having adopted a number of Ed Millibands proposals.
The problem with that line of argument is that, even though a government headed by Corbyn and Macdonald would probably be a disaster, would it really be so much worse than the chaos and incompetence of Mrs May and her gang? They are now so disastrous for the country that their being replaced by Labour is not that much of a threat.
Many will not agree even now. But I suspect enough will for Labour to sneak in.
Nah, think Kent and Surrey - it's the richest area of Germany, and deeply catholic. The reason it's been CSU for donkey's years is they are the sister party of the CDU and the CDU don't stand against them. There's a distinct party as Bavaria has such a strong regional identity, there's an independence movement and you'll see the blue and white flags not the national flags wherever you go. I posted yesterday it's like the Scots Tories opposing the British Tories, but in a much stronger area.
Were the CSU to break away and oppose the CDU I think they would have the rudest of awakenings and find that Angela Merkel is a lot more popular than they counted on - even allowing for people generally agreeing on immigration.
I think the CDU is more popular than Merkel, she is definitely a net drag on the party. In fact I think if the CSU broke away from the Union then they would gain votes as long as Merkel was leader of the CDU.
I also doubt very much they would go into coalition with AfD. As we've just seen in Italy, as soon as the hard right are legitimised they gain massively. LN have gone from their result of about 17% to almost 30% in the national polls. I think the CDU and CSU will both be wary of lessons from Italy (LN replacing Forza) and Switzerland (SVP replacing the FDP). If AfD are legitimised by government they will make huge gains on the centre right.
The OVP is still ahead of the Freedom Party in Austria
We are constantly told the south is complacent about the SNP, and to be fair writing them off would be a tremendous mistake, but it's funny how it isn't deemed to be complacency when the SNP once again act as though their grievances are universal and victory inevitable.
They might win yet. I would urge any union supporters not to take the union for granted. But the idea the complacency only ever goes one way is not supportable I think.
And the SNP aren't complacent about the idea that, as an independent nation, they'll be allowed to continue using the pound? Dream on....
Numbers from the London Bridge & West Bermondsey election (NOT a by election but a deferred election following the death of one of the Conservative candidates):
LD 1340, 1281 and 1270 Lab 1239, 1215 and 1171 Con 221, 219 and 205 Green 215 and 191
Comments
My reasoning on favouring Brussels can be expressed as a negative factor on London and a positive factor for Brussels.
I accept Fintan O'Toole's analysis that the Brexit vote was primarily an expression of a resurgent English nationalism. I don't think it is good for Scotland to remain a small appendage to a country that is choosing English nationalism over British nationalism. The difference in size of the two nations is too great.
Whereas, with Brussels, even after the UK leaves, the largest country in the EU is much smaller than half of the whole and so cannot dominate to the same extent.
Besides, I think Scotland could do perfectly well independent of both London and Brussels should it choose to do so.
The Tories did lose circa 40% of their 2017 vote share here and may have been helped by many local voters still having memory of being represnted by a Tory MP - Colin Moynihan.
Indeed they have often ruled against the other EU institutions where they judge they are breaching the terms of the treaties.
Since Wales also voted Leave, your theory is that Wales voted for English nationalism.
My main issue at the moment with Brexit is that we are dishonestly told that people wouldn't vote to make themselves worse off. This is patently nonsense as evidenced by the income levels of those voting for Labour in London.
The real victim in all this is the poor little twat from the UK who won the kids' drawing competition to have a satellite named after him. His "Patrick" satellite was due to be launched in 2020.
If Labour only did well because Corbyn wasn’t going to be PM, then you’d expect a much bigger drop off in Labour’s VI share. Although polls didn’t tell us much about what would happen in 2017, so they may not tell us much about what will happen in a future GE either.
And thats even before we get to Brexit.
As it happens, this government is actually quite competent: unemployment is very low, the economy is trundling along as well as could be expected given the referendum result, they are getting on with infrastructure, boosting housing, and pursuing small but welcome reforms in other areas . Taxes are being collected, strikes are at an all-time low, public services are in reasonable shape given the economic challenges, I'm not quite sure what you think is disastrous about it - it's better than most of the post-war governments we have had, despite the Brexit chaos.
If there is market demand, and there in, why do you think they should be abolished?
Just for reference, I said this on May 8th:
Do I think the LDs could come a solid second ? Yes unless the Greens get some local traction early but I still think a 5,000+ majority for Labour on a 35-40% turnout.
Not bad - slightly off on the turnout.
I went over and did a couple of visits for Lucy Salek, the LD candidate. Compared with the by-elections of old, this wasn't as big an LD effort but the dedicated core of by-election helpers many (not surprisingly) from London came to help.
Obviously, one comparison is with the 2017 GE but the Wards which made up the constituency voted in the local elections last month and on total number of votes cast I got to LAB 58.6% CON 19.4% LD 12.9%, Green 6.9%.
Looking at those results in more detail, the Greens often put up a single or just two candidates in a 3-member Ward and often outpolled both the LDs and Conservatives. There is a Green presence in Lewisham but for whatever reason (resources) they weren't able to translate that into support for their candidate in the by-election who ended up on 3.6%.
A solid if unspectacular effort for the LDs and given where expectations had been managed by the excellent canvass returns, almost exactly what was expected.
Plenty for both Labour and the Conservatives to feel positive about as well - Labour got part of the vote out but more than enough and although they hold all the Council seats, Lewisham isn't Newham and the Labour dominance isn't solid yet. The Conservative candidate, Ross Archer, is well known in Grove Park and probably did okay there and the Conservative vote didn't disintegrate.
It's a huge task in a short campaign to establish any kind of presence and the tactic now seems to be to go for short campaigns to prevent opposition parties gaining traction.
Also, the Lake District and Whitby fish and chip shops cannot be beaten by puny continental competition.
PS: though you appear to have good taste.
Underestimate the influence of political betting website owing Bedfordshire based pensioners are your peril!
What's happening is that Merkel is negotiationg with Seehofer (CSU Interior Minister) about whether to do something unilaterally about refusing refugees turned away by Austria. Merkel wants to kic the can down the road to the EU Summit later this month. Seehofer says summit, shummits, they won't decide anything let's get on with it. Possible compomise is some sort of bilateral temporary fudge. (Sounds familiar?)
Two reasons - firstly the AfD are absolutely toxic outside their voter base - Germans have long memories. And Bavaria isn't the strongest AfD area (such as the old East Germany) It's one thing campaigning against migration, it's another cosying up to neo-Nazis. Secondly Merkel is seen as a much more credible leader than Seehofer and has come down for personal visits to Munich to rescue CSU campaigns in the past few years.
It's also a safe enough area and the opposition sufficiently split that it's unlikely to let in 3rd parties through the middle. So I'm far from convinced the CSU can afford to call the bluff.
It should be said that many of Corbyn’s voters were not Con to Lab switchers (although some were) but rather the left vote coalescing around him so I’m sceptical that the awfulness of Tory campaign was the overwhelming definitive factor (although obviously it’s a factor). I think centre left and left voters were reminded of the prospect of a Con big majority govt, and that pushed them towards Corbyn. There are also other issues, such as Labour being able to successfully project being the socially liberal party. Then there’s Corbyn’s anti austerity stance, issues with intergenetational unfairness etc.
Mant of the cheques i receive are four figure amounts, so the difference is not insignificant.
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1007580091692568576
MCDONALD, Tosh (Labour Party) 1,084
WHITWOOD, Chris (The Yorkshire Party) 570
BUCKLEY, Julie (Green Party) 294
GREENHALGH, Carol (The Conservative Party Candidate) 260
SMITH, Ian Michael (Liberal Democrats) 66
PENDRY, Gareth (Independent) 43
And I'd rather have a pint of cask from a mid-size or large brewery than an overpriced can of 'American Style IPA' from a self-styled 'Craft' brewery.
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1007562585267425280
Cuba abstained. Presumably they didn't want to get kicked out of CONCACAF!
It has been CSU for decades, indeed the latest state poll gives the CSU and AfD 55% combined
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bavarian_state_election,_2018
The latest national German poll by contrast gives the CDU/CSU and AfD 46% combined.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_German_federal_election
A pint of Adnams (anything, pretty much, but especially Ghost Ship) knocks the fizzy stuff out of the park.
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1007581741379407872
I used to enjoy Fullers when I lived in the Smoke.
http://www.mediamasters.fm/tim-shipman/
The host is a Labour Party member horrified by Corbyn, and is grudgingly respectful of the competence of the government. Probably not too disimilar to my own view.
Were the CSU to break away and oppose the CDU I think they would have the rudest of awakenings and find that Angela Merkel is a lot more popular than they counted on - even allowing for people generally agreeing on immigration.
They might win yet. I would urge any union supporters not to take the union for granted. But the idea the complacency only ever goes one way is not supportable I think.
Maybe they should reconstitute themselves as a commercial polling organisation, with a sideline in Liberal politics ?
Merkel is less popular in Bavaria than she is in Northern Germany and her native East
I also doubt very much they would go into coalition with AfD. As we've just seen in Italy, as soon as the hard right are legitimised they gain massively. LN have gone from their result of about 17% to almost 30% in the national polls. I think the CDU and CSU will both be wary of lessons from Italy (LN replacing Forza) and Switzerland (SVP replacing the FDP). If AfD are legitimised by government they will make huge gains on the centre right.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Austrian_legislative_election#Opinion_polls
LD 1340, 1281 and 1270
Lab 1239, 1215 and 1171
Con 221, 219 and 205
Green 215 and 191
https://twitter.com/se1