We need to commit. No deal, May's deal (and hope the EU go for it) or remain. The middle option is still leaving and gives time for someone after may to go harder if that is wanted. The first is unnecessarily disruptive. The third can't be justified without public endorsement.
@Fenster “May ramming her Cabinet with Remainers”.
This is the kind of idiot rewriting of history that is so contemptible about Leavers. The Leavers in government have flounced off one by one in an attempt to secure by sabotage what they could not obtain in Cabinet by force of argument. Leavers are pretending to be victims after they have acted with incompetent malice.
Unfortunately, this is broadly right. May was accused of being too in hock to the hard leavers, and cleary kept them on board as long as she could, and theyleft after the group did not support them.
I agree the middle option is most likely but leaves us in purgatory indefinitely with a transition deal to a supposed FTA the EU have no interest in rushing while it can keep the UK in the EU through the transition in all but name with no decision making power within the EU
Mr. NorthWales, how do you think such a vote would come about?
Obviously it'd need a Commons majority (there's a Remain majority, of course, but voting for a second referendum is not something that is guaranteed) but also someone to put it forward.
I wonder if Grieve et al. will try and make that the result of a meaningful vote.
It has now become the only way to lance the boil.
Hopefully when TM brings back a deal or a no deal
The country needs another referendum on this like a hole in the head. We would descend into god knows what form of (further) division. Whoever won.
I’m not keen on May’s compromise and much depends yet on what happens exactly on FOM, but providing that’s meaningful, I’d live with her deal for now.
The country needs to move on to a period of dullness, where we talk about nuts and bolts stuff like health, housing, roads, education, etc. Once we’re out, I happy to let my favourite Irish Free State analogy to play out. Gradually we will diverge more. The ratchet will have been reset.
PB is a fascinating place full of a whole range of opinions and a larger range of people expressing those opinions.
I can see that the direction of travel with some of the exchanges you are having could be quite upsetting for you.
I think you should at all times remind yourself that wonderful as PB is, it is just an internet forum and things said on internet forums should not be taken too seriously. In particular with some of the bonkers posters on here.
And they certainly shouldn’t be taken as any kind of valid comment on you or your life.
Seconded. Big G is far superior exemplar of modern Conservatism in word and deed than his detractors.
We need to commit. No deal, May's deal (and hope the EU go for it) or remain. The middle option is still leaving and gives time for someone after may to go harder if that is wanted. The first is unnecessarily disruptive. The third can't be justified without public endorsement.
@Fenster “May ramming her Cabinet with Remainers”.
This is the kind of idiot rewriting of history that is so contemptible about Leavers. The Leavers in government have flounced off one by one in an attempt to secure by sabotage what they could not obtain in Cabinet by force of argument. Leavers are pretending to be victims after they have acted with incompetent malice.
Unfortunately, this is broadly right. May was accused of being too in hock to the hard leavers, and cleary kept them on board as long as she could, and theyleft after the group did not support them.
I agree the middle option is most likely but leaves us in purgatory indefinitely with a transition deal to a supposed FTA the EU have no interest in rushing while it can keep the UK in the EU through the transition in all but name with no decision making power within the EU
Brexiters are used to the long game. Getting out without major disruption lowers the chance that we might rejoin not that far down the line, and taking us further away can be a manifesto pledge. Trying to do it all now when the parliamentary support is not there will lead to major trouble. Better some of what you want than none in the long run.
The country needs to move on to a period of dullness, where we talk about nuts and bolts stuff like health, housing, roads, education, etc.
Brexit is why we can't do that
A common thread linking “hard” Brexiteers to nationalists across the globe is that they resent the very idea of governing as a complex, modern, fact-based set of activities that requires technical expertise and permanent officials. Soon after entering the White House as President Trump’s chief strategist, Steve Bannon expressed hope that the newly appointed cabinet would achieve the “deconstruction of the administrative state.”
Mr. NorthWales, how do you think such a vote would come about?
Obviously it'd need a Commons majority (there's a Remain majority, of course, but voting for a second referendum is not something that is guaranteed) but also someone to put it forward.
I wonder if Grieve et al. will try and make that the result of a meaningful vote.
It has now become the only way to lance the boil.
Hopefully when TM brings back a deal or a no deal
The country needs another referendum on this like a hole in the head. We would descend into god knows what form of (further) division. Whoever won.
I’m not keen on May’s compromise and much depends yet on what happens exactly on FOM, but providing that’s meaningful, I’d live with her deal for now.
The country needs to move on to a period of dullness, where we talk about nuts and bolts stuff like health, housing, roads, education, etc. Once we’re out, I happy to let my favourite Irish Free State analogy to play out. Gradually we will diverge more. The ratchet will have been reset.
PB is a fascinating place full of a whole range of opinions and a larger range of people expressing those opinions.
I can see that the direction of travel with some of the exchanges you are having could be quite upsetting for you.
I think you should at all times remind yourself that wonderful as PB is, it is just an internet forum and things said on internet forums should not be taken too seriously. In particular with some of the bonkers posters on here.
And they certainly shouldn’t be taken as any kind of valid comment on you or your life.
Seconded. Big G is far superior exemplar of modern Conservatism in word and deed than his detractors.
Seems like it to me. I always though the tories regarded such gentle conservatism their bread anf butter rather than the fierce ideologies of reverse Corbyn's.
I did not have an issue with Obama's queue comments. I don't have a problem with Trump's Brexit comments. I think it is helpful to know what US presidents think. That way you can make better decisions. But I am just loving the hypocrisy of those who did get furious at what Obama said now welcoming Trump's intervention - and vice versa, of course.
The country needs to move on to a period of dullness, where we talk about nuts and bolts stuff like health, housing, roads, education, etc.
Brexit is why we can't do that
A common thread linking “hard” Brexiteers to nationalists across the globe is that they resent the very idea of governing as a complex, modern, fact-based set of activities that requires technical expertise and permanent officials. Soon after entering the White House as President Trump’s chief strategist, Steve Bannon expressed hope that the newly appointed cabinet would achieve the “deconstruction of the administrative state.”
And non Brexit will make everything fine like Bobby Ewing’s been found in the shower, and we reset the plot to where lots of people clearly thought we were ( but weren’t in reality) in 2015?
It seems it's when a referendum produces the wrong result, there's a 'demand' for a re-run only when it involves the EU.
Switzerland have them occasionally and act upon them.
Ireland had one recently on abortion and no one demands a re-run. The only time they did re-run one involved the EU. They still laugh about that one in the Republic.
Mr. NorthWales, how do you think such a vote would come about?
Obviously it'd need a Commons majority (there's a Remain majority, of course, but voting for a second referendum is not something that is guaranteed) but also someone to put it forward.
I wonder if Grieve et al. will try and make that the result of a meaningful vote.
It has now become the only way to lance the boil.
Hopefully when TM brings back a deal or a no deal
The country needs another referendum on this like a hole in the head. We would descend into god knows what form of (further) division. Whoever won.
I’m not keen on May’s compromise and much depends yet on what happens exactly on FOM, but providing that’s meaningful, I’d live with her deal for now.
The country needs to move on to a period of dullness, where we talk about nuts and bolts stuff like health, housing, roads, education, etc. Once we’re out, I happy to let my favourite Irish Free State analogy to play out. Gradually we will diverge more. The ratchet will have been reset.
No chance of that. Neither side is remotely ready to play nice. This is one of the chief catastrophes of Brexit.
At the Blenheim Palace dinner with US and UK businesses looking on, May’s first words of welcome to Trump on Thursday were pretty transactional themselves.
Pointing out the two nations were the largest investors in each other’s economies, “with over a trillion dollars of investments between us” she rammed home that the UK is the largest investor in the US, “providing nearly a fifth of all foreign investment in your country”.
“We invest 30% more than our nearest rival. More than 20 times what China invests. And more than France and Germany combined.
“That all means a great deal more than simply numbers in bank accounts. It means jobs, opportunities and wealth for hardworking people right across America,”
“Tomorrow morning, around 24,000 men and women in Michigan will get up and go to work for a UK-owned company. Another 40,000 will do the same in Ohio. 60,000 in Pennsylvania.
“In Texas, British employers provide work for an incredible 100,000 people.”
That’s very well said by the PM. Talking to Trump in language he would immediately understand.
I did not have an issue with Obama's queue comments. I don't have a problem with Trump's Brexit comments. I think it is helpful to know what US presidents think. That way you can make better decisions. But I am just loving the hypocrisy of those who did get furious at what Obama said now welcoming Trump's intervention - and vice versa, of course.
That is fair. It's his Boris comments I think are the issue though.
At the Blenheim Palace dinner with US and UK businesses looking on, May’s first words of welcome to Trump on Thursday were pretty transactional themselves.
Pointing out the two nations were the largest investors in each other’s economies, “with over a trillion dollars of investments between us” she rammed home that the UK is the largest investor in the US, “providing nearly a fifth of all foreign investment in your country”.
“We invest 30% more than our nearest rival. More than 20 times what China invests. And more than France and Germany combined.
“That all means a great deal more than simply numbers in bank accounts. It means jobs, opportunities and wealth for hardworking people right across America,”
“Tomorrow morning, around 24,000 men and women in Michigan will get up and go to work for a UK-owned company. Another 40,000 will do the same in Ohio. 60,000 in Pennsylvania.
“In Texas, British employers provide work for an incredible 100,000 people.”
Not sure I buy the (counter-) revolutionary line. Revolutions tend not to happen through democratic votes, and it also implies the EU governs us.
Mr. P, people voted to leave. Wanting us to leave in actuality and not via a Constitution/Lisbon approach of renaming institutions and power structures is entirely reasonable.
May's approach of prevarication and capitulation has put us in a far worse position than we might have been. Some, including myself, suggested shortly after the referendum that our political class might negotiate a terrible deal for us, so that a second referendum could give us the 'choice' between remaining after all or accepting an atrocious deal. That's still a credible outcome.
It seems it's when a referendum produces the wrong result, there's a 'demand' for a re-run only when it involves the EU.
Switzerland have them occasionally and act upon them.
Ireland had one recently on abortion and no one demands a re-run. The only time they did re-run one involved the EU. They still laugh about that one in the Republic.
Selective democracy at its best.
I am supporting TM deal as it would respect the referendum
But if that falls and the alternative is a hard Brexit, remain comes back on the agenda
JRM group and others activities may result in their dreams being shattered for good by wanting the impossible
There’s a very unConservative ideological zealotry in the Conservatives these days. They are not the party they once were. They should probably call themselves the Nationalists instead.
It seems it's when a referendum produces the wrong result, there's a 'demand' for a re-run only when it involves the EU.
Switzerland have them occasionally and act upon them.
Ireland had one recently on abortion and no one demands a re-run. The only time they did re-run one involved the EU. They still laugh about that one in the Republic.
Selective democracy at its best.
Where are all the AV supporters demanding a second referendum after their 2011 defeat?
It seems it's when a referendum produces the wrong result, there's a 'demand' for a re-run only when it involves the EU.
Switzerland have them occasionally and act upon them.
Ireland had one recently on abortion and no one demands a re-run. The only time they did re-run one involved the EU. They still laugh about that one in the Republic.
Selective democracy at its best.
It is not the EU asking for a further referendum, it is British voters and parliamentarians.
I wasn't wanting one, but there is no way that a Deal would stick without, and needing to have Remain in the ballot paper.
The trouble is that people like Clegg don't realise that they are not better than Trump, they are just the reverse of Trump. Elitist snobs who love glad-handing at international organisations and then won't implement the results of the biggest public vote in UK history. Trump exists because people like Clegg exist. If all the Cleggs went away, we wouldn't have Trump!
And no, May will get no sympathy. People are going to realise that Trump is saying what he thinks and that most of them agree with him - May has made a dreadful hash of negotiations and the UK would much rather we had someone like Trump to stand up for our interests. And, of course, he is pointing out that the truth of her dreadful Chequers plan is that we won't be able to agree trade deals with major players such as the US.
The US is our ally and friend, regardless of which muppet they elect. The EU is not our ally and certainly not our friend. May forgot this. Trump is giving her a well-deserved kicking.
Why would we want a trade deal with the US? It would be an extremely one-sided agreement.
Do you have any basis for that opinion? Trade deals can be win-win (unless you are negotiating with the EU). If the US want what they want out of a deal, they will need to give us what we want or there is no deal. It is the benefit of having a sovereign trade policy.
Trade deals can be win/win, but that's not the sort of trade deal Trump wants.
Mr. NorthWales, advocating a second referendum with those two options (deal/remain)?
Yes - I am now firmly in remain as the best option.
As a lifelong conservative I came under attack yesterday from fellow conservatives accusing me of hysteria, not being a proper conservative, and that my son in law working for Airbus should maybe not expect to have a foreign holiday as it will all come right in the end.
I will remain a loyal member of my party and reject the 25% of ERG groups suicidal march to economic disaster
It is so strange that this week has seen me actually move to the Dominic Grieve, Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke side
Really disturbing and dangerous times
I never said your son in law shouldn’t expect to have foreign holidays. I merely pointed out that if our currency weakens, they would become more expensive for all of us, so some might chance their plans or holiday in the U.K. instead.
On a separate topic, if you voted for Blair twice, please do not call yourself a lifelong Conservative. It would be a false statement.
Royal Blue You are absolutely right.
I have the utmost respect for BigG personally but someone who voted for Blair twice is not a 'lifelong conservative' even if he generally does vote and campaign for the Tories.
To explain that from a Tory perspective try telling a Labour member and Corbyn supporter someone who voted for Cameron twice is a 'lifelong Labour voter' and wait for the reaction
To be fair, very many Corbynistas are a long way from being lifelong Labour voters. Half the Corbyn leadership team and Momentum executive campaigned against Labour as recently as the 2015 general election.
That's pretty weak. People don't have to agree with the PM. I just wish they woukd challenge her if her plan is so bad. I can only conclude the y don't really think it is that bad, but they want to say it is once it is done, or they know they can't win but are wrecking any alternative
Mr. NorthWales, how do you think such a vote would come about?
Obviously it'd need a Commons majority (there's a Remain majority, of course, but voting for a second referendum is not something that is guaranteed) but also someone to put it forward.
I wonder if Grieve et al. will try and make that the result of a meaningful vote.
It has now become the only way to lance the boil.
Hopefully when TM brings back a deal or a no deal
The country needs another referendum on this like a hole in the head. We would descend into god knows what form of (further) division. Whoever won.
I’m not keen on May’s compromise and much depends yet on what happens exactly on FOM, but providing that’s meaningful, I’d live with her deal for now.
The country needs to move on to a period of dullness, where we talk about nuts and bolts stuff like health, housing, roads, education, etc. Once we’re out, I happy to let my favourite Irish Free State analogy to play out. Gradually we will diverge more. The ratchet will have been reset.
No chance of that. Neither side is remotely ready to play nice. This is one of the chief catastrophes of Brexit.
Yes you’re probably right. I really envy the Irish though having had votes alonside each European staging post, unlike ourselves, where most of our leading politicians seems to have been blissfully unaware (or were aware and kept stumm hoping to avoid a direct question on the matter in case they got the answer they feared?) of the depth and breadth of unease and outright distaste for the ratchet of ever closer union. Hence the shock of the result and all that has flowed. Would that our consent had been so demanded regularly!
It will be many years and a different set of circumstances before dullness returns. But it will, one day.
The alliance that is forming between Trump and the the more extreme Brexiteers is very significant indeed. Though most people are decided on which side of the Brexit debate they sit most leavers are uncertain what particular deal they support.
There will be some very queasy Leavers sratching their heads this morning. I'd go s far as to say this could be one of the most significant events we have seen in a political debate for a very long time.
That is a strategic misreading of the present situation.
The most significant event in British political discourse since the election of Margaret Thatcher in 1979 was the BREXIT vote. All flows from it.
The Trump "state visit" (in all but name) is dramatic theatre but May and the other European leaders have from the earliest days of his presidency realized that there is one personal driving force behind Donald's term of office - Narcissism - All flows from it.
Their problem is determining how to deal with it. All flows from it
Indeed. And traditional enemies are emerging as surprising bedfellows, with the accompanying embarassed shuffle out of the door in the morning.
Tabman .. as I live and breath .. a ghost looms from the mists of PB past ..
I hope all is well at Tabman Towers ?
Was your analysis a metaphor for the Coalition government ? ..
I like to show my face once in a while, just to remind people I exist 8-)
I think you might be spot on there regarding the Coalition; although some of the bedfellows within the existing parties, given your spot on Brexit analysis passim, exhibit a somewhat niche view of liasons rather than the more traditional FWB type, shall we say ...
All well thank you, and you and the good Lady W too I hope!
Personally, I would cancel the lunch and the visit to the Queen. This is not the way any foreign leader should behave in any country in which he is a guest.
Personally, I would cancel the lunch and the visit to the Queen. This is not the way any foreign leader should behave in any country in which he is a guest.
Nonsense - I'm sure her majesty is greatly looking forward to having it explained to her how she's been getting the whole head of state thing wrong for the last half century or so...
I did not have an issue with Obama's queue comments. I don't have a problem with Trump's Brexit comments. I think it is helpful to know what US presidents think. That way you can make better decisions. But I am just loving the hypocrisy of those who did get furious at what Obama said now welcoming Trump's intervention - and vice versa, of course.
I wasn't furious at Obama's intervention. I thought it was helpful for Leave.
But, Trump is simply an oaf, and (as you say) no friend to this country, unless we grovel to him.
@Fenster “May ramming her Cabinet with Remainers”.
This is the kind of idiot rewriting of history that is so contemptible about Leavers. The Leavers in government have flounced off one by one in an attempt to secure by sabotage what they could not obtain in Cabinet by force of argument. Leavers are pretending to be victims after they have acted with incompetent malice.
The leavers are certainly useless but the lack of planning for no deal which had to be done from the off in order to get any leverage with the EU was stupid.
For which those resigning have to take a very large share of responsibility.
To be fair, Trump lies by reflex, and if journalists (I use the term loosely in this particular case) were to fact check everything he says, they'd miss their deadlines.
I did not have an issue with Obama's queue comments. I don't have a problem with Trump's Brexit comments. I think it is helpful to know what US presidents think. That way you can make better decisions. But I am just loving the hypocrisy of those who did get furious at what Obama said now welcoming Trump's intervention - and vice versa, of course.
I wasn't furious at Obama's intervention. I thought it was helpful for Leave.
But, Trump is simply an oaf, and (as you say) no friend to this country, unless we grovel to him.
Exactly. And why should we? Tell him to get lost. He can fit in another round of golf instead.
Theresa May and the rest of the upper ranks of the parliamentary party have made a fundamental miscalculation about their support. It will be their undoing.
The Tory vote now skews very clearly to Leave (c. 75%). By delivering BRINO, May guarantees that a chunk of that 75% will abstain or vote for other parties. Remainers who switched to other parties in 2017 are unlikely to be grateful to her for BRINO, as she attacked some of them in her 2016 conference speech and she is still delivering an outcome they don’t want.
As a matter of party strategy, it would have been better to double down on hard Brexit than try to split the difference. I expect Tory support will slump over the next 2-3 months, with UKIP roaring back. If the party is languishing in the polls, May has no chance whatsoever to get her deal through Parliament.
I did not have an issue with Obama's queue comments. I don't have a problem with Trump's Brexit comments. I think it is helpful to know what US presidents think. That way you can make better decisions. But I am just loving the hypocrisy of those who did get furious at what Obama said now welcoming Trump's intervention - and vice versa, of course.
I wasn't furious at Obama's intervention. I thought it was helpful for Leave.
But, Trump is simply an oaf, and (as you say) no friend to this country, unless we grovel to him.
Not much of a friend even if we grovel to him it would appear.
It seems it's when a referendum produces the wrong result, there's a 'demand' for a re-run only when it involves the EU.
Switzerland have them occasionally and act upon them.
Ireland had one recently on abortion and no one demands a re-run. The only time they did re-run one involved the EU. They still laugh about that one in the Republic.
Selective democracy at its best.
In Ireland the losers lost unambiguously and absolutely. The losers are still fighting, demanding conscience rights for bigots, that sort of thing.
The alliance that is forming between Trump and the the more extreme Brexiteers is very significant indeed. Though most people are decided on which side of the Brexit debate they sit most leavers are uncertain what particular deal they support.
There will be some very queasy Leavers sratching their heads this morning. I'd go s far as to say this could be one of the most significant events we have seen in a political debate for a very long time.
That is a strategic misreading of the present situation.
The most significant event in British political discourse since the election of Margaret Thatcher in 1979 was the BREXIT vote. All flows from it.
The Trump "state visit" (in all but name) is dramatic theatre but May and the other European leaders have from the earliest days of his presidency realized that there is one personal driving force behind Donald's term of office - Narcissism - All flows from it.
Their problem is determining how to deal with it. All flows from it
Indeed. And traditional enemies are emerging as surprising bedfellows, with the accompanying embarassed shuffle out of the door in the morning.
Tabman .. as I live and breath .. a ghost looms from the mists of PB past ..
I hope all is well at Tabman Towers ?
Was your analysis a metaphor for the Coalition government ? ..
I like to show my face once in a while, just to remind people I exist 8-)
I think you might be spot on there regarding the Coalition; although some of the bedfellows within the existing parties, given your spot on Brexit analysis passim, exhibit a somewhat niche view of liasons rather than the more traditional FWB type, shall we say ...
All well thank you, and you and the good Lady W too I hope!
Indeed so.
Lady W enjoys robust health and demeanour as last week was most appropriately signaled when she, in terms that the teenage man child understood, "bitch slapped" the foul youth in front of his peers.
This peer is enjoying some better health but still testing times - a miracle of modern medicine - in part I'm minded to think it must also be the healing calm of PB ....
I did not have an issue with Obama's queue comments. I don't have a problem with Trump's Brexit comments. I think it is helpful to know what US presidents think. That way you can make better decisions. But I am just loving the hypocrisy of those who did get furious at what Obama said now welcoming Trump's intervention - and vice versa, of course.
I wasn't furious at Obama's intervention. I thought it was helpful for Leave.
But, Trump is simply an oaf, and (as you say) no friend to this country, unless we grovel to him.
Exactly. And why should we? Tell him to get lost. He can fit in another round of golf instead.
I actually think we'd get more out of Trump by being rough. Look who he respects - Putin, Kim.
I did not have an issue with Obama's queue comments. I don't have a problem with Trump's Brexit comments. I think it is helpful to know what US presidents think. That way you can make better decisions. But I am just loving the hypocrisy of those who did get furious at what Obama said now welcoming Trump's intervention - and vice versa, of course.
A US President is entirely entitled to express an opinion on the UK's alliances and trade arrangements; to publicly undermine a prime minister while a guest of the country is a rather different matter.
Well that is some thought - am I really PB first counter - revolutionary
I think, at the very least, you are an interesting barometer of where the more moderate strands of Conservative opinion are at the moment. You're close to where I was around 2 or 3 or 4 years ago - though, of course, my opinions changed at a more sedate pace as there wasn't a national crisis happening at the time.
Indeed. I have nothing but respect for Big G and, asdie from being a true gent, he's also a good barometer of moderate opinion.
I had my first real Brexit wobble last month as I was driving through a quaint market town, the kind of place you think only exists in postcards these days. And I said to myself, Brexit is going to make everything shit, isn't it?
I despise the EU, I think it's an affront to democracy. I think freedom of movement has caused untold damage to the fabric of society, I think the Euro has been an unmitigated disaster and I think the tin-eared bureaucrats in Brussels have absolutely no interest in representing the interests of British citizens - and make no mistake, as the Brexit negotiations are showing, they are very much the ones in charge.
I still think Brexit is a good idea from a democratic point of view. There is more to life than money - the right to self-determination being one of them. But if we end up as a vassal state, what has been the point of it all? And if the deal is worse than what we had before, or worse, leads to economic disaster, I am inclined to agree that the leaders of the revolution will be swiftly devoured by those who believed in them.
The UK has been a vassal state for years.
Yes we have a vote in the EU but then so does a Conservative supporter in Liverpool.
Except that the Liverpool Conservative will sometimes have a Conservative government whereas the EU is not going to have a UK friendly government.
Theresa May and the rest of the upper ranks of the parliamentary party have made a fundamental miscalculation about their support. It will be their undoing.
The Tory vote now skews very clearly to Leave (c. 75%). By delivering BRINO, May guarantees that a chunk of that 75% will abstain or vote for other parties. Remainers who switched to other parties in 2017 are unlikely to be grateful to her for BRINO, as she attacked some of them in her 2016 conference speech and she is still delivering an outcome they don’t want.
As a matter of party strategy, it would have been better to double down on hard Brexit than try to split the difference. I expect Tory support will slump over the next 2-3 months, with UKIP roaring back. If the party is languishing in the polls, May has no chance whatsoever to get her deal through Parliament.
We will see but anything can happen now.
Deal - no deal - remain and nobody can be certain
I just hope our MP's take the action to protect our economy and jobs
Mr. NorthWales, advocating a second referendum with those two options (deal/remain)?
Yes - I am now firmly in remain as the best option.
As a lifelong conservative I came under attack yesterday from fellow conservatives accusing me of hysteria, not being a proper conservative, and that my son in law working for Airbus should maybe not expect to have a foreign holiday as it will all come right in the end.
I will remain a loyal member of my party and reject the 25% of ERG groups suicidal march to economic disaster
It is so strange that this week has seen me actually move to the Dominic Grieve, Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke side
Really disturbing and dangerous times
I never said your son in law shouldn’t expect to have foreign holidays. I merely pointed out that if our currency weakens, they would become more expensive for all of us, so some might chance their plans or holiday in the U.K. instead.
On a separate topic, if you voted for Blair twice, please do not call yourself a lifelong Conservative. It would be a false statement.
Royal Blue You are absolutely right.
I have the utmost respect for BigG personally but someone who voted for Blair twice is not a 'lifelong conservative' even if he generally does vote and campaign for the Tories.
To explain that from a Tory perspective try telling a Labour member and Corbyn supporter someone who voted for Cameron twice is a 'lifelong Labour voter' and wait for the reaction
Sometimes I feel a bit self-conscious about taking my Sainsbury's shopping bags into Morrisons, or my Lidl shopping bags into Sainsbury's, &c, but then I reason with myself that the staff should be delighted to see people who have shopped elsewhere choose to come to their store instead.
Denouncing current/former voters as not true believers because they are upset about a particular policy is a step on the road to moaning about the splitters in the Popular Front of Pimlico.
Not that I don't also find the attempt to claim extra validity for a personal opinion on the basis of being a "lifelong [whoever] voter", or a "floating voter" to be absurd, but you should still play the ball and not the man.
I did not have an issue with Obama's queue comments. I don't have a problem with Trump's Brexit comments. I think it is helpful to know what US presidents think. That way you can make better decisions. But I am just loving the hypocrisy of those who did get furious at what Obama said now welcoming Trump's intervention - and vice versa, of course.
I wasn't furious at Obama's intervention. I thought it was helpful for Leave.
But, Trump is simply an oaf, and (as you say) no friend to this country, unless we grovel to him.
Exactly. And why should we? Tell him to get lost. He can fit in another round of golf instead.
I actually think we'd get more out of Trump by being rough. Look who he respects - Putin, Kim.
Not often you and I agree Nick. Maybe we have got this wrong!
A by-election in Sheffield Hallam right now would be interesting. Could potentially give the Lib Dems the "big mo" at a time when their USP of opposing Brexit is becoming increasingly relevant.
The alliance that is forming between Trump and the the more extreme Brexiteers is very significant indeed. Though most people are decided on which side of the Brexit debate they sit most leavers are uncertain what particular deal they support.
There will be some very queasy Leavers sratching their heads this morning. I'd go s far as to say this could be one of the most significant events we have seen in a political debate for a very long time.
That is a strategic misreading of the present situation.
The most significant event in British political discourse since the election of Margaret Thatcher in 1979 was the BREXIT vote. All flows from it.
The Trump "state visit" (in all but name) is dramatic theatre but May and the other European leaders have from the earliest days of his presidency realized that there is one personal driving force behind Donald's term of office - Narcissism - All flows from it.
Their problem is determining how to deal with it. All flows from it
Indeed. And traditional enemies are emerging as surprising bedfellows, with the accompanying embarassed shuffle out of the door in the morning.
Tabman .. as I live and breath .. a ghost looms from the mists of PB past ..
I hope all is well at Tabman Towers ?
Was your analysis a metaphor for the Coalition government ? ..
I like to show my face once in a while, just to remind people I exist 8-)
I think you might be spot on there regarding the Coalition; although some of the bedfellows within the existing parties, given your spot on Brexit analysis passim, exhibit a somewhat niche view of liasons rather than the more traditional FWB type, shall we say ...
All well thank you, and you and the good Lady W too I hope!
Indeed so.
Lady W enjoys robust health and demeanour as last week was most appropriately signaled when she, in terms that the teenage man child understood, "bitch slapped" the foul youth in front of his peers.
This peer is enjoying some better health but still testing times - a miracle of modern medicine - in part I'm minded to think it must also be the healing calm of PB ....
I am most gratified to hear it, and with my own teenage manchild to deal with I shall take this sage advice and apply when appropriate!
There must be something revivifying in the limpid waters of PB ... it is some 14 years since we first laid blade on blade in these august halls!
I actually think we'd get more out of Trump by being rough. Look who he respects - Putin, Kim.
Are you suggesting we launch the nuclear option - the full off the cuff Duke of Edinburgh diplomatic effort at Trump when he takes tea with the Queen at Windsor this afternoon ?
Theresa May and the rest of the upper ranks of the parliamentary party have made a fundamental miscalculation about their support. It will be their undoing.
The Tory vote now skews very clearly to Leave (c. 75%). By delivering BRINO, May guarantees that a chunk of that 75% will abstain or vote for other parties. Remainers who switched to other parties in 2017 are unlikely to be grateful to her for BRINO, as she attacked some of them in her 2016 conference speech and she is still delivering an outcome they don’t want.
As a matter of party strategy, it would have been better to double down on hard Brexit than try to split the difference. I expect Tory support will slump over the next 2-3 months, with UKIP roaring back. If the party is languishing in the polls, May has no chance whatsoever to get her deal through Parliament.
UKIP is dead. Just accept it and recognise that the debate about what sort of Brexit we ask for (not necessarily get of course) will be determined within the Tory party.
The hypocrisy on both the hard right and hard left is on full display. Corbyn welcomes the IRA and Hamas to the UK as he feels everyone should be talked to, but can't have a right wing American president. Mogg opposes Obama giving his views but supports Trump actively trying to replace the PM.
What's even more absurd about the ultraleavers is they think Donald Trump's words are the basis for anything. He is a man who struggles to say five sentences without lying.
A by-election in Sheffield Hallam right now would be interesting. Could potentially give the Lib Dems the "big mo" at a time when their USP of opposing Brexit is becoming increasingly relevant.
I did not have an issue with Obama's queue comments. I don't have a problem with Trump's Brexit comments. I think it is helpful to know what US presidents think. That way you can make better decisions. But I am just loving the hypocrisy of those who did get furious at what Obama said now welcoming Trump's intervention - and vice versa, of course.
A US President is entirely entitled to express an opinion on the UK's alliances and trade arrangements; to publicly undermine a prime minister while a guest of the country is a rather different matter.
I agree. But I don't have a problem with it! I prefer transparency over diplomatic nicety. It's good to know that Trump thinks the way he does. It makes me more convinced that I am right to think the way that I do.
The trouble is that people like Clegg don't realise that they are not better than Trump, they are just the reverse of Trump. Elitist snobs who love glad-handing at internationalp exists because people like Clegg exist. If all the Cleggs went away, we wouldn't have Trump!
And no, May will get no sympathy. People are going to realise that Trump is saying what he thinks and that most of them agree with him - May has made a dreadful hash of negotiations and the UK would much rather we had someone like Trump to stand up for our interests. And, of course, he is pointing out that the truth of her dreadful Chequers plan is that we won't be able to agree trade deals with major players such as the US.
The US is our ally and friend, regardless of which muppet they elect. The EU is not our ally and certainly not our friend. May forgot this. Trump is giving her a well-deserved kicking.
+10
Trump is no diplomat, but he was right to state a few home truths. If May's proposed deal goes through, probably modified further to suit the EU, it will be BINO. The UK will become a vassal state ruled from Berlin/Brussels, with no say in trade or many other rules/laws and no ability to do business independently with the rest of the world. It is not what I voted for on 23/6/16.
You’re concerned about being a ‘vassal state’, but perfectly happy for your leaders to be instructed on how to behave by a foreign guest ? Trump wouldn’t know the truth if you beat him about the head with it, and ‘home’ ?
Trump most reminds me of a disregulated child in a primary school class.
I don't disagree that Trump's behaviour is disgraceful. But we need to skip the hypocrisy here. Obama's behaviour in trying to interfere with the referendum was disgraceful. May's behaviour in lying about Brexit is disgraceful. I am just not sure I see much difference between one set of politicians and another.
My point is that to some degree it served May right. The US is our closest ally and she has basically lectured them from afar and failed to back them when she should (don't remember her backing Trump re NATO but he is right) and she wouldn't arrange the visit because she was too weak to face down protesters. Everyone knows Trump wants to be liked. He is the US President. If you can't work out how to manage him appropriately, you shouldn't be in the job and May is getting the pretty foreseeable blowback from her approach.
I don’t think it is disgraceful at all
Obama was trying to influence the outcome of a referendum
Trump is lobbying a government
Two totally different things.
His comments on Boris being “a great PM” were unwarranted interference
If Johnson and Johnson have to pay out $4.7 to 22 cases and there are 9000 out there, I make their potential liability $1.9 Tn. The market cap of the company is $345 Bn.
Well that is some thought - am I really PB first counter - revolutionary
I think, at the very least, you are an interesting barometer of where the more moderate strands of Conservative opinion are at the moment. You're close to where I was around 2 or 3 or 4 years ago - though, of course, my opinions changed at a more sedate pace as there wasn't a national crisis happening at the time.
Indeed. I have nothing but respect for Big G and, asdie from being a true gent, he's also a good barometer of moderate opinion.
I had my first real Brexit wobble last month as I was driving through a quaint market town, the kind of place you think only exists in postcards these days. And I said to myself, Brexit is going to make everything shit, isn't it?
I despise the EU, I think it's an affront to democracy. I think freedom of movement has caused untold damage to the fabric of society, I think the Euro has been an unmitigated disaster and I think the tin-eared bureaucrats in Brussels have absolutely no interest in representing the interests of British citizens - and make no mistake, as the Brexit negotiations are showing, they are very much the ones in charge.
I still think Brexit is a good idea from a democratic point of view. There is more to life than money - the right to self-determination being one of them. But if we end up as a vassal state, what has been the point of it all? And if the deal is worse than what we had before, or worse, leads to economic disaster, I am inclined to agree that the leaders of the revolution will be swiftly devoured by those who believed in them.
The UK has been a vassal state for years.
Yes we have a vote in the EU but then so does a Conservative supporter in Liverpool.
Except that the Liverpool Conservative will sometimes have a Conservative government whereas the EU is not going to have a UK friendly government.
And how have UK governments responded to being a vassal state ?
By saying Yes so that they can pretend they have 'influence'.
Yes we'll allow migration. Yes we'll give up half the Rebate. Yes we'll join your military intervention. Yes we'll increases our Overseas Aid. Yes we'll loan your banking system money. Yes we'll allow that takeover of a British company. Yes we'll pay the price your nuclear energy is charged at.
Theresa May and the rest of the upper ranks of the parliamentary party have made a fundamental miscalculation about their support. It will be their undoing.
The Tory vote now skews very clearly to Leave (c. 75%). By delivering BRINO, May guarantees that a chunk of that 75% will abstain or vote for other parties. Remainers who switched to other parties in 2017 are unlikely to be grateful to her for BRINO, as she attacked some of them in her 2016 conference speech and she is still delivering an outcome they don’t want.
As a matter of party strategy, it would have been better to double down on hard Brexit than try to split the difference. I expect Tory support will slump over the next 2-3 months, with UKIP roaring back. If the party is languishing in the polls, May has no chance whatsoever to get her deal through Parliament.
UKIP is dead. Just accept it and recognise that the debate about what sort of Brexit we ask for (not necessarily get of course) will be determined within the Tory party.
UKIP is dead? Oh really? UKIP were on 6% with Yougov yesterday, double the Green share and not far off the LD share. 6% would be the highest UKIP general election vote since 1997 after 2015
I did not have an issue with Obama's queue comments. I don't have a problem with Trump's Brexit comments. I think it is helpful to know what US presidents think. That way you can make better decisions. But I am just loving the hypocrisy of those who did get furious at what Obama said now welcoming Trump's intervention - and vice versa, of course.
A US President is entirely entitled to express an opinion on the UK's alliances and trade arrangements; to publicly undermine a prime minister while a guest of the country is a rather different matter.
I agree. But I don't have a problem with it! I prefer transparency over diplomatic nicety. It's good to know that Trump thinks the way he does. It makes me more convinced that I am right to think the way that I do.
Fair enough.
We should put him on a separate naughty table at the dinner, though.
Well that is some thought - am I really PB first counter - revolutionary
I think, at the very least, you are an interesting barometer of where the more moderate strands of Conservative opinion are at the moment. You're close to where I was around 2 or 3 or 4 years ago - though, of course, my opinions changed at a more sedate pace as there wasn't a national crisis happening at the time.
Indeed. I have nothing but respect for Big G and, asdie from being a true gent, he's also a good barometer of moderate opinion.
I had my first real Brexit wobble last month as I was driving through a quaint market town, the kind of place you think only exists in postcards these days. And I said to myself, Brexit is going to make everything shit, isn't it?
I despise the EU, I think it's an affront to democracy. I think freedom of movement has caused untold damage to the fabric of society, I think the Euro has been an unmitigated disaster and I think the tin-eared bureaucrats in Brussels have absolutely no interest in representing the interests of British citizens - and make no mistake, as the Brexit negotiations are showing, they are very much the ones in charge.
I still think Brexit is a good idea from a democratic point of view. There is more to life than money - the right to self-determination being one of them. But if we end up as a vassal state, what has been the point of it all? And if the deal is worse than what we had before, or worse, leads to economic disaster, I am inclined to agree that the leaders of the revolution will be swiftly devoured by those who believed in them.
The UK has been a vassal state for years.
Yes we have a vote in the EU but then so does a Conservative supporter in Liverpool.
Except that the Liverpool Conservative will sometimes have a Conservative government whereas the EU is not going to have a UK friendly government.
That depends on how you define UK friendly, of course. The Liverpool Conservative is an individual. We are 65 million people.
It's the competent radicals who are the scary ones.
Most populists are incompetent, but to a large extent, so are the people they're replacing.
I notice the NYT, the Times and the Guardian have this morning referred to a subset of Levers as "the Brexiters". Let's remember Gove, Raab, Mordaunt, Leadsom, Hannan and many others are all onboard. They are bright enough to actually understand which concessions matter and which do not. The future of the world economy is services, especially for long distance trade. Amazing how many people opposing Chequers can't engage with that argument.
The trouble is that people like Clegg don't realise that they are not better than Trump, they are just the reverse of Trump. Elitist snobs who love glad-handing at internationalp exists because people like Clegg exist. If all the Cleggs went away, we wouldn't have Trump!
And no, May will get notand up for our interests. And, of course, he is pointing out that the truth of her dreadful Chequers plan is that we won't be able to agree trade deals with major players such as the US.
The US is our ally and friend, regardless of which muppet they elect. The EU is not our ally and certainly not our friend. May forgot this. Trump is giving her a well-deserved kicking.
+10
Trump is no diplomat, but he was right to state a few home truths. If May's proposed deal goes through, probably modified further to suit the EU, it will be BINO. The UK will become a vassal state ruled from Berlin/Brussels, with no say in trade or many other rules/laws and no ability to do business independently with the rest of the world. It is not what I voted for on 23/6/16.
You’re concerned about being a ‘vassal state’, but perfectly happy for your leaders to be instructed on how to behave by a foreign guest ? Trump wouldn’t know the truth if you beat him about the head with it, and ‘home’ ?
Trump most reminds me of a disregulated child in a primary school class.
I don't disagree that Trump's behaviour is disgraceful. But we need to skip the hypocrisy here. Obama's behaviour in trying to interfere with the referendum was disgraceful. May's behaviour in lying about Brexit is disgraceful. I am just not sure I see much difference between one set of politicians and another.
My point is that to some degree it served May right. The US is our closest ally and she has basically lectured them from afar and failed to back them when she should (don't remember her backing Trump re NATO but he is right) and she wouldn't arrange the visit because she was too weak to face down protesters. Everyone knows Trump wants to be liked. He is the US President. If you can't work out how to manage him appropriately, you shouldn't be in the job and May is getting the pretty foreseeable blowback from her approach.
I don’t think it is disgraceful at all
Obama was trying to influence the outcome of a referendum
Trump is lobbying a government
Two totally different things.
His comments on Boris being “a great PM” were unwarranted interference
Charles twists and turns like the apocryphal twisty turny thing. The Neymar of PB.
As a matter of party strategy, it would have been better to double down on hard Brexit than try to split the difference. I expect Tory support will slump over the next 2-3 months, with UKIP roaring back. If the party is languishing in the polls, May has no chance whatsoever to get her deal through Parliament.
Short-term, I suspect you're right. Longer-term, there are cooler heads in the Tory party who know that "Brexit at any cost" will be long-forgotten as a slogan in 2022 if the economy's trashed.
Of course, I understand that expectation is far from universal, and many think the sunny Brexit uplands will provide endless milk and honey. But I reckon there are enough of the others within the party - especially the parliamentary party and even among Leavers - to hedge their bets.
Mr. NorthWales, advocating a second referendum with those two options (deal/remain)?
Yes - I am now firmly in remain as the best option.
As a lifelong conservative I came under attack yesterday from fellow conservatives accusing me of hysteria, not being a proper conservative, and that my son in law working for Airbus should maybe not expect to have a foreign holiday as it will all come right in the end.
I will remain a loyal member of my party and reject the 25% of ERG groups suicidal march to economic disaster
It is so strange that this week has seen me actually move to the Dominic Grieve, Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke side
Really disturbing and dangerous times
I never said your son in law shouldn’t expect to have foreign holidays. I merely pointed out that if our currency weakens, they would become more expensive for all of us, so some might chance their plans or holiday in the U.K. instead.
On a separate topic, if you voted for Blair twice, please do not call yourself a lifelong Conservative. It would be a false statement.
Royal Blue You are absolutely right.
I have the utmost respect for BigG personally but someone who voted for Blair twice is not a 'lifelong conservative' even if he generally does vote and campaign for the Tories.
To explain that from a Tory perspective try telling a Labour member and Corbyn supporter someone who voted for Cameron twice is a 'lifelong Labour voter' and wait for the reaction
To be fair, very many Corbynistas are a long way from being lifelong Labour voters. Half the Corbyn leadership team and Momentum executive campaigned against Labour as recently as the 2015 general election.
Many Labour members and voters stayed in the party and voted Labour in 2005 and 2010 though despite reservations about Blair and Iraq
Mr. NorthWales, advocating a second referendum with those two options (deal/remain)?
Yes - I am now firmly in remain as the best option.
As a lifelong conservative I came under attack yesterday from fellow conservatives accusing me of hysteria, not being a proper conservative, and that my son in law working for Airbus should maybe not expect to have a foreign holiday as it will all come right in the end.
I will remain a loyal member of my party and reject the 25% of ERG groups suicidal march to economic disaster
It is so strange that this week has seen me actually move to the Dominic Grieve, Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke side
Really disturbing and dangerous times
I never said your son in law shouldn’t expect to have foreign holidays. I merely pointed out that if our currency weakens, they would become more expensive for all of us, so some might chance their plans or holiday in the U.K. instead.
On a separate topic, if you voted for Blair twice, please do not call yourself a lifelong Conservative. It would be a false statement.
Royal Blue You are absolutely right.
I have the utmost respect for BigG personally but someone who voted for Blair twice is not a 'lifelong conservative' even if he generally does vote and campaign for the Tories.
To explain that from a Tory perspective try telling a Labour member and Corbyn supporter someone who voted for Cameron twice is a 'lifelong Labour voter' and wait for the reaction
Sometimes I feel a bit self-conscious about taking my Sainsbury's shopping bags into Morrisons, or my Lidl shopping bags into Sainsbury's, &c, but then I reason with myself that the staff should be delighted to see people who have shopped elsewhere choose to come to their store instead.
Denouncing current/former voters as not true believers because they are upset about a particular policy is a step on the road to moaning about the splitters in the Popular Front of Pimlico.
Not that I don't also find the attempt to claim extra validity for a personal opinion on the basis of being a "lifelong [whoever] voter", or a "floating voter" to be absurd, but you should still play the ball and not the man.
Trashing your own brand and customers is worse, ask Gerard Ratner
There Is a spectrum of people here ranging from the loyalist to the true believer. The extremes do not understand each other.
BigG is very loyal to May, when she changes tack his continued support confuses the hell out of the true Brexit beloveds.
Equally I don’t understand how certain ex MPs can enthusiastically back Blair, Brown and Corbyn.
Hello! I've always been pretty left-wing, but in 1997 I felt a lot needed doing on the lines that Blair and Brown were pursuing which everyone to the left of Genghis Khan could agree with, so we could get on with those in unity and worry about other stuff later. I became uneasy in the latter stages when Iraq went so badly wrong and Tony pursued privatisation as a personal mantra, but they still seemed better than the Tories. Nonetheless I feel the party is now more what I went into politics for. I don't necessarily think it's alwaya taking the best approach to winning an election, but that's a different issue.
There's some personal loyalty there too. I like Tony and respect Gordon, but I've known Jeremy off and on throughout my adult life and he's the sort of politician I most identify with - in my view sincere, polite, kind and consistent. Those are virtues which are on a different axis to the left-right spectrum, and visible in for instance Big G, who I hope will forgive the comparison. Equally I know George Galloway and hold him in little regard even on the occasions when I agree with him - I don't think he has any of those personal qualities.
Theresa May and the rest of the upper ranks of the parliamentary party have made a fundamental miscalculation about their support. It will be their undoing.
The Tory vote now skews very clearly to Leave (c. 75%). By delivering BRINO, May guarantees that a chunk of that 75% will abstain or vote for other parties. Remainers who switched to other parties in 2017 are unlikely to be grateful to her for BRINO, as she attacked some of them in her 2016 conference speech and she is still delivering an outcome they don’t want.
As a matter of party strategy, it would have been better to double down on hard Brexit than try to split the difference. I expect Tory support will slump over the next 2-3 months, with UKIP roaring back. If the party is languishing in the polls, May has no chance whatsoever to get her deal through Parliament.
UKIP is dead. Just accept it and recognise that the debate about what sort of Brexit we ask for (not necessarily get of course) will be determined within the Tory party.
I wish you were right, but you’re wrong. They are back over 5% and not far off the Lib Dem score. Many people will stop supporting us if they feel we won’t deliver what they voted for. If it’s not UKIP it might be Farage’s Brexit means Brexit party.
Unfortunately it is not solely within our party’s purview, thanks to the hung parliament. Only overwhelming Tory consensus will be enough to get it through, and we’re not going to get it.
Theresa May and the rest of the upper ranks of the parliamentary party have made a fundamental miscalculation about their support. It will be their undoing.
The Tory vote now skews very clearly to Leave (c. 75%). By delivering BRINO, May guarantees that a chunk of that 75% will abstain or vote for other parties. Remainers who switched to other parties in 2017 are unlikely to be grateful to her for BRINO, as she attacked some of them in her 2016 conference speech and she is still delivering an outcome they don’t want.
As a matter of party strategy, it would have been better to double down on hard Brexit than try to split the difference. I expect Tory support will slump over the next 2-3 months, with UKIP roaring back. If the party is languishing in the polls, May has no chance whatsoever to get her deal through Parliament.
UKIP is dead. Just accept it and recognise that the debate about what sort of Brexit we ask for (not necessarily get of course) will be determined within the Tory party.
UKIP is dead? Oh really? UKIP were on 6% with Yougov yesterday, double the Green share and not far off the LD share. 6% would be the highest UKIP general election vote since 1997 after 2015
But UKIP never get near polling totals in real elections.
I did not have an issue with Obama's queue comments. I don't have a problem with Trump's Brexit comments. I think it is helpful to know what US presidents think. That way you can make better decisions. But I am just loving the hypocrisy of those who did get furious at what Obama said now welcoming Trump's intervention - and vice versa, of course.
I wasn't furious at Obama's intervention. I thought it was helpful for Leave.
But, Trump is simply an oaf, and (as you say) no friend to this country, unless we grovel to him.
Exactly. And why should we? Tell him to get lost. He can fit in another round of golf instead.
I actually think we'd get more out of Trump by being rough. Look who he respects - Putin, Kim.
What do we want out of Trump though? Just to be nice to us? We know he can't be trusted to keep an agreement. I think best just to smile and nod, and hope whoever replaces him is someone we can do business with.
The trouble is that people like Clegg don't realise that they are not better than Trump, they are just the reverse of Trump. Elitist snobs who love glad-handing at internationalp exists because people like Clegg exist. If all the Cleggs went away, we wouldn't have Trump!
And no, May will get no sympathy. People are going to realise that Trump is saying what he thinks and that most of them agree with him - May has made a dreadful hash of negotiations and the UK would much rather we had someone like Trump to stand up for our interests. And, of course, he is pointing out that the truth of her dreadful Chequers plan is that we won't be able to agree trade deals with major players such as the US.
The US is our ally and friend, regardless of which muppet they elect. The EU is not our ally and certainly not our friend. May forgot this. Trump is giving her a well-deserved kicking.
+10
You’re concerned about being a ‘vassal state’, but perfectly happy for your leaders to be instructed on how to behave by a foreign guest ? Trump wouldn’t know the truth if you beat him about the head with it, and ‘home’ ?
Trump most reminds me of a disregulated child in a primary school class.
I don't disagree that Trump's behaviour is disgraceful. But we need to skip the hypocrisy here. Obama's behaviour in trying to interfere with the referendum was disgraceful. May's behaviour in lying about Brexit is disgraceful. I am just not sure I see much difference between one set of politicians and another.
My point is that to some degree it served May right. The US is our closest ally and she has basically lectured them from afar and failed to back them when she should (don't remember her backing Trump re NATO but he is right) and she wouldn't arrange the visit because she was too weak to face down protesters. Everyone knows Trump wants to be liked. He is the US President. If you can't work out how to manage him appropriately, you shouldn't be in the job and May is getting the pretty foreseeable blowback from her approach.
I don’t think it is disgraceful at all
Obama was trying to influence the outcome of a referendum
Trump is lobbying a government
Two totally different things.
His comments on Boris being “a great PM” were unwarranted interference
That is rubbish. Governments lobby governments privately. They don't try to undermine the PM by trying to trash their policy in public interviews and big up a main rival.
Rees Moog on R4 right now claiming that Obama was wrong to interfere, but Trump is right
Fuqwit
They have the gall to call themselves patriots.
JRM is an utter c**t. How dare he and people like him side with those who seek to humiliate us and our PM. T May may be useless but for Trump to behave in the way he has is a total disgrace. He is not on our side. Britain has a trade surplus with the US. Any deal with the US would be an attempt by the US to reverse that i.e. to make things worse for us. The so-called special relationship is a fiction and it is long past the time for us to stop believing in this fairy story.
I would really like May to stand up to Trump at the press conference and say that it is for her - and her Cabinet and the British Parliament - not any foreign leader to decide what is in Britain's interests and that one thing the British do not like are bullies, of whatever variety. She won't of course. But she should.
Theresa May and the rest of the upper ranks of the parliamentary party have made a fundamental miscalculation about their support. It will be their undoing.
The Tory vote now skews very clearly to Leave (c. 75%). By delivering BRINO, May guarantees that a chunk of that 75% will abstain or vote for other parties. Remainers who switched to other parties in 2017 are unlikely to be grateful to her for BRINO, as she attacked some of them in her 2016 conference speech and she is still delivering an outcome they don’t want.
As a matter of party strategy, it would have been better to double down on hard Brexit than try to split the difference. I expect Tory support will slump over the next 2-3 months, with UKIP roaring back. If the party is languishing in the polls, May has no chance whatsoever to get her deal through Parliament.
UKIP is dead. Just accept it and recognise that the debate about what sort of Brexit we ask for (not necessarily get of course) will be determined within the Tory party.
UKIP is dead? Oh really? UKIP were on 6% with Yougov yesterday, double the Green share and not far off the LD share. 6% would be the highest UKIP general election vote since 1997 after 2015
At the last local elections they lost all bar 1 of their councillors, mainly because they couldn’t even find candidates. I think that the chances of them even having candidates to vote for in the vast majority of seats at the next election are very slight so they will poll only a small proportion of that 6%.
The US is our ally and friend, regardless of which muppet they elect. The EU is not our ally and certainly not our friend. May forgot this. Trump is giving her a well-deserved kicking.
+10
Trump is no diplomat, but he was right to state a few home truths. If May's proposed deal goes through, probably modified further to suit the EU, it will be BINO. The UK will become a vassal state ruled from Berlin/Brussels, with no say in trade or many other rules/laws and no ability to do business independently with the rest of the world. It is not what I voted for on 23/6/16.
You’re concerned about being a ‘vassal state’, but perfectly happy for your leaders to be instructed on how to behave by a foreign guest ? Trump wouldn’t know the truth if you beat him about the head with it, and ‘home’ ?
Trump most reminds me of a disregulated child in a primary school class.
I don't disagree that Trump's behaviour is disgraceful. But we need to skip the hypocrisy here. Obama's behaviour in trying to interfere with the referendum was disgraceful. May's behaviour in lying about Brexit is disgraceful. I am just not sure I see much difference between one set of politicians and another.
My point is that to some degree it served May right. The US is our closest ally and she has basically lectured them from afar and failed to back them when she should (don't remember her backing Trump re NATO but he is right) and she wouldn't arrange the visit because she was too weak to face down protesters. Everyone knows Trump wants to be liked. He is the US President. If you can't work out how to manage him appropriately, you shouldn't be in the job and May is getting the pretty foreseeable blowback from her approach.
I don’t think it is disgraceful at all
Obama was trying to influence the outcome of a referendum
Trump is lobbying a government
Two totally different things.
His comments on Boris being “a great PM” were unwarranted interference
Obama went about it in a tactless way but what he said was basically correct rebuking the nonsense that was being spoken. And let us not forget the then PM was fully supporting him.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziTrlKAkn94
Like America’s president, Brexiteers resent the very idea of governing as complex and based in facts.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/13/opinion/brexit-conservatives-boris-trump.html
I’m not keen on May’s compromise and much depends yet on what happens exactly on FOM, but providing that’s meaningful, I’d live with her deal for now.
The country needs to move on to a period of dullness, where we talk about nuts and bolts stuff like health, housing, roads, education, etc. Once we’re out, I happy to let my favourite Irish Free State analogy to play out. Gradually we will diverge more. The ratchet will have been reset.
A common thread linking “hard” Brexiteers to nationalists across the globe is that they resent the very idea of governing as a complex, modern, fact-based set of activities that requires technical expertise and permanent officials. Soon after entering the White House as President Trump’s chief strategist, Steve Bannon expressed hope that the newly appointed cabinet would achieve the “deconstruction of the administrative state.”
Now Donald has made it clear he has a complete non-job thanks to May and Robbins what on Earth is he still hanging around for?
Switzerland have them occasionally and act upon them.
Ireland had one recently on abortion and no one demands a re-run. The only time they did re-run one involved the EU. They still laugh about that one in the Republic.
Selective democracy at its best.
Fuqwit
There Is a spectrum of people here ranging from the loyalist to the true believer. The extremes do not understand each other.
BigG is very loyal to May, when she changes tack his continued support confuses the hell out of the true Brexit beloveds.
Equally I don’t understand how certain ex MPs can enthusiastically back Blair, Brown and Corbyn.
Mr. P, people voted to leave. Wanting us to leave in actuality and not via a Constitution/Lisbon approach of renaming institutions and power structures is entirely reasonable.
May's approach of prevarication and capitulation has put us in a far worse position than we might have been. Some, including myself, suggested shortly after the referendum that our political class might negotiate a terrible deal for us, so that a second referendum could give us the 'choice' between remaining after all or accepting an atrocious deal. That's still a credible outcome.
https://mobile.twitter.com/OwenPaterson/status/1017655677001588738
But if that falls and the alternative is a hard Brexit, remain comes back on the agenda
JRM group and others activities may result in their dreams being shattered for good by wanting the impossible
I totally agree with that view.
I wasn't wanting one, but there is no way that a Deal would stick without, and needing to have Remain in the ballot paper.
It will be many years and a different set of circumstances before dullness returns. But it will, one day.
I think you might be spot on there regarding the Coalition; although some of the bedfellows within the existing parties, given your spot on Brexit analysis passim, exhibit a somewhat niche view of liasons rather than the more traditional FWB type, shall we say ...
All well thank you, and you and the good Lady W too I hope!
May should present Trump with a gift from the city.
https://twitter.com/WhatScotsThink/status/1017669023084040192
The SNP are still running scared of a general election, obviously.
But, Trump is simply an oaf, and (as you say) no friend to this country, unless we grovel to him.
The Tory vote now skews very clearly to Leave (c. 75%). By delivering BRINO, May guarantees that a chunk of that 75% will abstain or vote for other parties. Remainers who switched to other parties in 2017 are unlikely to be grateful to her for BRINO, as she attacked some of them in her 2016 conference speech and she is still delivering an outcome they don’t want.
As a matter of party strategy, it would have been better to double down on hard Brexit than try to split the difference. I expect Tory support will slump over the next 2-3 months, with UKIP roaring back. If the party is languishing in the polls, May has no chance whatsoever to get her deal through Parliament.
Trump-related, no doubt.
Lady W enjoys robust health and demeanour as last week was most appropriately signaled when she, in terms that the teenage man child understood, "bitch slapped" the foul youth in front of his peers.
This peer is enjoying some better health but still testing times - a miracle of modern medicine - in part I'm minded to think it must also be the healing calm of PB ....
Yes we have a vote in the EU but then so does a Conservative supporter in Liverpool.
Except that the Liverpool Conservative will sometimes have a Conservative government whereas the EU is not going to have a UK friendly government.
Deal - no deal - remain and nobody can be certain
I just hope our MP's take the action to protect our economy and jobs
September at the latest. Mark my words.
Denouncing current/former voters as not true believers because they are upset about a particular policy is a step on the road to moaning about the splitters in the Popular Front of Pimlico.
Not that I don't also find the attempt to claim extra validity for a personal opinion on the basis of being a "lifelong [whoever] voter", or a "floating voter" to be absurd, but you should still play the ball and not the man.
Press conference could be interesting
There must be something revivifying in the limpid waters of PB ... it is some 14 years since we first laid blade on blade in these august halls!
Most populists are incompetent, but to a large extent, so are the people they're replacing.
London military aircraft count:
Two more Ospreys overhead.
What's even more absurd about the ultraleavers is they think Donald Trump's words are the basis for anything. He is a man who struggles to say five sentences without lying.
Obama was trying to influence the outcome of a referendum
Trump is lobbying a government
Two totally different things.
His comments on Boris being “a great PM” were unwarranted interference
The market cap of the company is $345 Bn.
By saying Yes so that they can pretend they have 'influence'.
Yes we'll allow migration.
Yes we'll give up half the Rebate.
Yes we'll join your military intervention.
Yes we'll increases our Overseas Aid.
Yes we'll loan your banking system money.
Yes we'll allow that takeover of a British company.
Yes we'll pay the price your nuclear energy is charged at.
We should put him on a separate naughty table at the dinner, though.
As our esteemed member of the Establishment did you get an invite to last nights Banquet in Blenheim Palace?
Anything to report as our "Peer On The Ground" ?
Of course, I understand that expectation is far from universal, and many think the sunny Brexit uplands will provide endless milk and honey. But I reckon there are enough of the others within the party - especially the parliamentary party and even among Leavers - to hedge their bets.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/07/12/why-trumps-aggressive-tactics-make-him-a-less-effective-negotiator-219002
There's some personal loyalty there too. I like Tony and respect Gordon, but I've known Jeremy off and on throughout my adult life and he's the sort of politician I most identify with - in my view sincere, polite, kind and consistent. Those are virtues which are on a different axis to the left-right spectrum, and visible in for instance Big G, who I hope will forgive the comparison. Equally I know George Galloway and hold him in little regard even on the occasions when I agree with him - I don't think he has any of those personal qualities.
Unfortunately it is not solely within our party’s purview, thanks to the hung parliament. Only overwhelming Tory consensus will be enough to get it through, and we’re not going to get it.
A train crash looms.
We know he can't be trusted to keep an agreement. I think best just to smile and nod, and hope whoever replaces him is someone we can do business with.
I would really like May to stand up to Trump at the press conference and say that it is for her - and her Cabinet and the British Parliament - not any foreign leader to decide what is in Britain's interests and that one thing the British do not like are bullies, of whatever variety. She won't of course. But she should.