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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ruthless People. The Conservatives lose a leadership contender
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ruthless People. The Conservatives lose a leadership contender
A pregnant Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson has told the Sunday Times she never wants to be prime minister, and opened up about her depression and suicidal thoughts — also pulling up her sleeve to show her self-harm scars. Wow. pic.twitter.com/2a6AigxUQj
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First-ish.
More seriously, it's a fair question but "it's much closer to home" is a fair answer.
Unless you have some penetrating insights that goes counter to the polling?
Doing better than expected track record might be more appropriate.
On topic, we'll see if Ruth Davidson's 2017 GE success translates into success at Holyrood for the Conservatives in 2021 but that's a very long way off with much water to flow under many bridges.
To pick up on one of Alastair's points, May remains in charge not because there is no more talented or more capable alternative in the Conservative party but because of Jeremy Corbyn.
Corbyn is such a polarising figure and engenders such fear and anxiety among non-Labour supporters they all stick like barnacles to the hull of SS Tory Party. If your reaction to the notion of Corbyn as Prime Minister is horror and/or nausea the only reasonable option to prevent it (currently) is to stick with the Conservatives.
Would anyone else do any better ? There's no evidence to assume so and indeed most others would do worse which further strengthens May's position. If you are a Conservative backbench MP with a majority of less than 10,000 you'd be happy with polling showing the party doing about as well as 2017 because that means you and your majority are secure.
If May were 10 points behind Labour and your majority was looking precarious whereas with Javid or Hunt or Johnson or JRM your majority would be safe you'd consider dropping May.
If May were 10 points behind Labour and all other alternatives were 15-20 points behind, you'd stick with May.
As long as a) she polls as well as 2017 and b) no one else is polling significantly better, May is safe.
As Alastair says, Ruth Davidson has been courageous in speaking about some personally difficult topics and as part of the wider opening of the debate on mental health it is to be welcomed but was she ever a realistic candidate for Conservative Party leader ? Not now, not to be the next leader, the leader after next or the leader after that perhaps..
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1041657571021606912
Come on those of you in England and match that !!!!
‘Ultimately they should develop their own country,’ says spiritual leader"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/dalai-lama-europe-refugee-crisis-immigration-eu-racism-tibet-buddhist-a8537221.html
https://youtu.be/DIIJc8N9Jpg
Whilst one is grateful to George Freeman for his selfless offer, I don't think it quite fills the gap.
She saved us from the Corybn alliance being in power last GE - that alone makes her one of the greatest Tories in recent years.... not that that is saying much I give you.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45545225
There are, theoretically, some halfway capable alternatives in the Conservative Party: Sajid Javid, Amber Rudd, Jeremy Hunt, all are at least as competent as May (not, admittedly, setting the highest of bars).
The problem is that the Conservatives are unleadable. The party has become so polarised over Brexit that the ERG won't vote for anyone "soft" (let alone "Remain"); the One-Nation faction won't vote for anyone "hard" (let alone "insane"); and the compromise candidates end up pleasing no-one, because if you wanted someone who'll deliver an untrustworthy fudge, well, you'd stick with May.
First policy is to proscribe Common Purpose
If both parties split our politics would be enriched.
Getting the other side of Brexit will exacerbate Labour's.
Is it four bin collections per week or one bin collection every four weeks?
Jeremy Corbyn’s Chief of Staff, Karie Murphy, posted “are u considering your defence mitigation if u cut his throat?” as a comment on a photograph of David Cameron speaking with journalist Steve Zacharanda a reception at Downing Street in 2013.
https://order-order.com/2018/09/17/corbyns-chief-staff-spoke-cutting-pms-throat/
Mr. Urquhart, blimey. If her rhetoric were any more violent Corbyn would have to describe her as a friend then lay a wreath.
Any recommendations?
Thanks
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/09/17/ohio-2018-elections-senior-citizens-sherrod-brown-dewine-cordray-219914
Granted it amounts to extended anecdotage, but it does confirm the impression given by recent polling.
The subtext of a lot of coverage of the white working class has been that issues don’t matter much, because Trump voters love Trump no matter what he does or tweets. That’s true for many of them, but not all of them, which is why his approval rating has dipped to potential blue-wave levels. Al Stapleton, a 72-year-old retired Teamster from Brunswick, says he voted for Trump to kick corporate asses and drain the Washington swamp, only to see the president attack unions, dismantle Wall Street regulations and ignore the threat to his $3000-a-month pension. “The guy talked a good game, and I’ll admit it, I got hornswoggled,” Stapleton said before Brown’s talk. “He doesn’t care about working people; we’re dirt under his feet.”
Voters don’t always fit into neat socioeconomic stereotypes. Several retirees who came to see Brown discuss their pensions in Cambridge were still fuming about Clinton’s breezy observation on a visit to Ohio that she would “put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business.” But Don Cameron, a self-described Reagan Democrat wearing a camouflage United Mine Workers T-shirt, said he’s far more upset about Trump’s apathetic response to Hurricane Maria: “He said he did so much for Puerto Rico? What a joke!” Wharton, the blunt-spoken Vietnam vet, brought up Trump’s change-the-subject attacks on black athletes who kneel during the national anthem, then surprised me by siding with the protesters.
“What gives that frigging draft dodger the right to criticize?” Wharton said. “Look, I’m a white man. But you know what? Too many of us are scared of minorities taking over this country....
I am in favour of FPTP on the basis it limits the chances of headbanger parties winning seats.
Of course that assumes the "mainstream" parties are not fielding headbanger candidates, which may be a slight flaw currently...
While not a perfect analogy within the USA Presidents tend to be a mix of former Governors from the States or Senators [Holyrood-equivalent] from central Congress [Westminster-equivalent].
Carter, Reagan, Clinton, W. Bush, Truman, Nixon and Ford were all governors.
Admittedly, Theresa May is making that task harder by insisting the Party accept a shit-sandwich of a deal. But unless the deal is so bad that it causes a No Deal exit, then the Conservative Party will largley mirror the mood of the people, breathe a sigh of relief, think thank fuck that is over, and get on with making the best of a post-Brexit Britain.
I rather like the Kayal, which specialises in Keralan seafood:
http://www.kayalrestaurant.com
It is at the top end of Granby St, near the Railway station, about 5 min walk from the Curve. There is a home match for Leicester City though so the area around the Railway station can be busy afterwards.
https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1041689615852285952
The fight afterwards will be Canada plus or Chequers style if enough Tory MP's vote to give the EU 40billion for a period of staying in the EU with no say on the rules.
Taggart: What do you want me to do sir?
Hedley: I want you to round up ever vicious criminal and gun slinger in the west. Take this down.
[Taggart looks for a pen and paper while Hedley talks]
Hedley: I want rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ass-kickers, shit-kickers and Methodists!
Taggart: [finding pen and paper] Could you repeat that, sir?
Well, yes and no. She is currently out of the Westminster loop, in Holyrood. However, were she to move to Westminster - and who knows when an opportunity to do so might arise - there's a good chance she would be Secretary of State for Scotland at the next reshuffle.
She is at present a non-runner but the path to her being in the game is short and plausible.
That said, being a new parent is hard work (I have immense respect for those mothers who somehow manage to combine being an MP with parenting duties). Davidson is still young. She may well be a future Tory leader - but just not the next one.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6175623/New-leak-shows-Julian-Assange-sought-Russian-visa-2010.html
Barnier must believe the May apologists, who are backpedalling at speed toward BINO, will accept SM in name only and the lightest possible restrictions on FoM.
I'm embarrassed to say I thought it was because he was perceived as a opportunistic, narcissistic, untrustworthy, lying, cheating, treacherous, racist, populist charlatan. But yes, I see now it's basically the EU's fault.
Single Transferable Vote in multi-member constituencies would give us a choice of personnel within parties and the vote would actually count. MPs would still be tied to a constituency and it would still be quite difficult for a headbanger to get elected, maybe more so than at the moment.
EDIT: Oops. That's Throw Momma From The Train. Danny should have been more worried about that one.
He was a Congressman, Senator and Vice President before becoming President.
Ford was a Congressman (and, of course, VP).
Truman was a Senator.
An Act of Parliament is a law, enforced in all areas of the UK where it is applicable.
Or are you unfamiliar with Othello, Taming of the Shrew or The Merchant of Venice ?
Quafftide is a good one. It means the time at which a drink is appropriate (either time of day or when you just really need/want one).
"Insult of the day, should you need one: a bayard (16th century) is one who has all the self-confidence of ignorance."
Anything, out of context or in a bizarre one, can be construed as offensive or dangerous.
"A joyless, dismal, black, and sorrowful issue:
Here is the babe, as loathsome as a toad
Amongst the fairest breeders of our clime:
The empress sends it thee, thy stamp, thy seal,
And bids thee christen it with thy dagger's point."
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1041709181571670016?s=21
The pair told the JC they believe the Labour Party’s antisemitism crisis is a “smear with a Zionist agenda”
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/charedi-jeremy-corbyn-labour-antisemitism-letter-signed-by-rabbis-1.469880
SCons are the only No/Leave party so get the whole slice of that pie.