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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast: LAB’s Brexit shif
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast: LAB’s Brexit shift, TIG voters vs the SDP & EU parliament elections
On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh look at the numbers around Labour’s policy on a second Brexit vote and discuss the popularity of The Independent Group, comparing their potential impact to that of the SDP in the 1980s.
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That wasn't in Esperanto :-(
But what a mockery it would make of claims the deal was the problem if this story were true.
1) The Nehru-Gandhi family have roots in Kashmir
2) It's to prove that a Muslim majority area can be governed as part of India (invalidating Jinnah's "Two-Nation" hypothesis). But there was a double-standard in 1948: Hyderabad was ruled by a Muslim raja (or "Nizam"), despite being in southern India. He ruled over a Hindu majority, but refused to join in 1947, so the following year India just invaded. Being several hundred miles from the nearest Pakistani territory, Hyderabad was quickly annexed to India.
RE: India. Ashoka ruled over pretty much as big an area as the Moghuls and the British did in 3rd Century BCE. He placed a series of obelisks around explaining the Laws. Ironically he was totally forgotten until Imperial surveyors found them and translated them.
I also read once, but can't remember where, that India accounted for 25% of World GDP when Europeans arrived.
Seems like a pretty mild (and vaguely plausible) conspiracy theory to me.
Is it at all noteworthy that they feel the need to shoehorn Iraq into the middle of all this? Or that they hate attacks on the democratically elected leadership of the party given the leader's record, and the fact that the deputy leader is also democratically elected and seen as attaching him?
On the other hand thank goodness I now know the secret of why racism exists - capitalism that is promoted by apologists in the media and Tories.
Only 80 people there though.
"Momo challenge has caused 'severe trauma' among pupils, school safety group says
"Over the last couple of days we have heard first-hand accounts from our schools of children and young people who have been exposed to Momo""
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/momo-challenge-real-hoax-warning-15904004
Go on punks, make my day.
This new Labour party of SWP and other trots would be finally finished.
MoMo or MayMay?
It's echo chamber/streisand effect hoax becoming self fulfilling prophecy as schools and even the Commons! "warnings" to pupils/parents about it propagate the meme about "Momo" sending self harm etc messages through Whatsapp.
Does seem like circular logic. He can't be racist because he's always been anti-racist.
This is a fire that they cannot put out.
Points to Watson for trying, but sorry guys the gig is over. Walk.
The deal plus May is a bigger problem.
Police, schools, etc not doing any kind of basic fact-checking (such as is this a real thing?) before issuing warnings.
Instead of educating children on Internet safety, maybe we should educate the over 40's on critical thinking skills.
What the hell happens in our best schools and universities?
This is the real disagreement behind the failure to move forward:
https://twitter.com/DPRK_News/status/1100435265183719424
https://www.google.com/maps/@53.6194697,-1.3087695,3a,75y,136.24h,68.35t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sFm15gOEEfSaf8Pxz595GsA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656
Terrified.
https://www.theredroar.com/2019/02/why-labour-were-right-to-suspend-chris-williamson-and-why-he-shouldnt-be-allowed-back/
https://goo.gl/maps/j1E6c43ZNcT2
https://twitter.com/Fanxxxxtastic/status/1100706876474437632
The Farage March is about conning people into continuing to support (even vote) to be poorer and unemployed by leaving our main trading partners.
And didn't even UKIP also use to talk occasionally of taking ideas from left and right?
I think the left-right spectrum is mostly bollocks albeit useful for tribal political shorthand, but it's sustained for a reason, and I don't think promising you might be willing to take ideas from either end is not actually that popular. It's why it will be seen as Labour lite by some and Tory lite by others and thus limit its appeal.
https://twitter.com/pkerrian21/status/1100783303894974468
That's not the best road for walking along either.
Desperately funny... until they see the polling figures.
Now I know its all in a day's work for some nutters like Josias Jessop and Eddie Izzard but I'd be staggered if Farage manages it.
"Being a core marcher means you will receive an official March to Leave kit to help you on the march. These are the items you will receive on the day:
Waterproof coat
Beanie hat
Gloves
Water bottle
T-Shirt
Wristband
High visibility blue jacket"
Note the blue jacket - not gilets jaunes this time.
https://twitter.com/nytmike/status/1101245574219788289
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47410564
ERG and DUP face a stark choice.
@britainelects
34m
34 minutes ago
Berkeley Vale (Stroud) result:
CON: 49.8% (+4.6)
LAB: 34.4% (+0.8)
LDEM: 11.6% (-1.5)
GRN: 4.1% (-3.9)
Conservative HOLD.
Seriously, it's something the Remain campaign still hasn't got, or wants to ignore. The functions, structures and effects of the EU affect people differently. Really differently. Where the drawbacks are more modest than the benefits, you get Remain voters. Where it's the other way around, Leave voters.
So where the Remain campaign is based on 'We'll lose a lot of jam sandwiches if you vote leave', and the Leave campaign is 'in the EU we get f*cked over so that you can have an extra jam sandwich', don't expect 'but muh jam sandwiches' to change any minds.
Brexit date before end March 2019. £252 at average Betfair odds 5.15.
It might improve their incomes. It might not.
If leaving FoM means that large employers leave, then it might mean lower levels of employment. If they don't leave, it may result in higher incomes.
If leaving FoM means a weaker currency, then they might have notionally higher incomes, but that essentials - like food and energy - are more expensive. But a weaker currency might also stimulate demand, leading to higher economic growth.
If leaving FoM means lower demand for housing, it might reduce rents and make it easier for people to own their own homes. But lower house prices may also mean that people compensate by increasing their savings rates.
We don't know the impacts of leaving the EU / FoM. My personal view is that FoM is the one thing that I will miss from the EU. Having more freedom of who to hire, and who to work for, and where to live, is a good thing. A thought experiment: do you really think that banning Liverpudlians from working in London (and vice-versa) would raise incomes? And if not, then why would that be any different from banning Estonians from working in Essex?