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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Conservative approach. The seats that will decide whether the

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited March 10 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Conservative approach. The seats that will decide whether the Conservatives will form the next government

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,751
    First!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,751
    The utility of the traditional UNS model is breaking down, with the declining party allegiance and political volatility, particularly the shift away from class-based voting patterns. This is what made the last election difficult to predict at local level, with surprises such as Canterbury, Mansfield and Kensington for those who didn't trust the YouGov model. I don't see any reason why things should be different next time - indeed with TIG and potential electoral deals, the seats that might change hands could become even harder to identify in advance.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,751
    London is heading the way of most other large UK cities and the Tories will find most of their defences exceptionally difficult, whatever.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,093
    IanB2 said:

    The utility of the traditional UNS model is breaking down, with the declining party allegiance and political volatility, particularly the shift away from class-based voting patterns. This is what made the last election difficult to predict at local level, with surprises such as Canterbury, Mansfield and Kensington for those who didn't trust the YouGov model. I don't see any reason why things should be different next time - indeed with TIG and potential electoral deals, the seats that might change hands could become even harder to identify in advance.

    I'm not saying you're wrong but are there some numbers showing that? Breaking it down into two questions, is UNS getting worse at the aggregate level, and are the outliers getting outlierier?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,674
    edited March 10
    Good piece Alastair. I know nobody except Corbyn wants it, but a summer or autumn election could still happen by accident. We could even get one in April.

    The DUP have said they will vote against the government in a vote of confidence, if any deal with a backstop passes a ‘meaningful vote’, so we could have an almighty constitutional crisis as soon as this week.

    Add in the Independent Group, and a couple more Con defections there leaves Con + DUP with no majority, and a whole pile of urgent legislation that needs to be passed.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,803
    Sandpit said:

    Good piece Alastair. I know nobody except Corbyn wants it, but a summer or autumn election could still happen by accident. We could even get one in April.

    The DUP have said they will vote against the government in a vote of confidence, if any deal with a backstop passes a ‘meaningful vote’, so we could have an almighty constitutional crisis as soon as this week.

    Add in the Independent Group, and a couple more Con defections there leaves Con + DUP with no majority, and a whole pile of urgent legislation that needs to be passed.

    The Conservatives ought to want an early election, surely, for at least two reasons: first, if Corbyn is suppressing Labour's vote, then there should be an election before the Labour leader is replaced; second, there should be an election before economic damage from Brexit piles up, and while any disruption can be written off as a glitch.

    So if the government believes its own propaganda, there will be an early election, almost certainly under a new leader (and the expected bounce would be a third reason for the Tories to call a snap election).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,751

    IanB2 said:

    The utility of the traditional UNS model is breaking down, with the declining party allegiance and political volatility, particularly the shift away from class-based voting patterns. This is what made the last election difficult to predict at local level, with surprises such as Canterbury, Mansfield and Kensington for those who didn't trust the YouGov model. I don't see any reason why things should be different next time - indeed with TIG and potential electoral deals, the seats that might change hands could become even harder to identify in advance.

    I'm not saying you're wrong but are there some numbers showing that? Breaking it down into two questions, is UNS getting worse at the aggregate level, and are the outliers getting outlierier?
    The 2017 GE saw a swing of just over 2% from Tory to Labour. Looking just at Tory/Lab marginals (where UNS is strongest), the same pre-election analysis would have identified about 16 Tory seats that should have gone Labour.

    In the event, Labour made 28 gains from the Tories but lost back 6. Of the sixteen predicted gains, Morley, Thurrock, Bolton W, Telford and Plymouth Moorview failed to materialise, whereas Canterbury was no. 122 on the Labour target list and Canterbury no. 104. Mansfield was no. 54 on the list of seats the Tories expected to gain had there been a swing to them.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 12,093
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    The utility of the traditional UNS model is breaking down, with the declining party allegiance and political volatility, particularly the shift away from class-based voting patterns. This is what made the last election difficult to predict at local level, with surprises such as Canterbury, Mansfield and Kensington for those who didn't trust the YouGov model. I don't see any reason why things should be different next time - indeed with TIG and potential electoral deals, the seats that might change hands could become even harder to identify in advance.

    I'm not saying you're wrong but are there some numbers showing that? Breaking it down into two questions, is UNS getting worse at the aggregate level, and are the outliers getting outlierier?
    The 2017 GE saw a swing of just over 2% from Tory to Labour. Looking just at Tory/Lab marginals (where UNS is strongest), the same pre-election analysis would have identified about 16 Tory seats that should have gone Labour.

    In the event, Labour made 28 gains from the Tories but lost back 6. Of the sixteen predicted gains, Morley, Thurrock, Bolton W, Telford and Plymouth Moorview failed to materialise, whereas Canterbury was no. 122 on the Labour target list and Canterbury no. 104. Mansfield was no. 54 on the list of seats the Tories expected to gain had there been a swing to them.
    Thanks - predicting 16 and ending up with 22 doesn't sound too bad in the aggregate.

    Those outliers feel pretty big but I'm wondering if it's unusual to have outliers that big? I mean, weird stuff always happens...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,674

    Sandpit said:

    Good piece Alastair. I know nobody except Corbyn wants it, but a summer or autumn election could still happen by accident. We could even get one in April.

    The DUP have said they will vote against the government in a vote of confidence, if any deal with a backstop passes a ‘meaningful vote’, so we could have an almighty constitutional crisis as soon as this week.

    Add in the Independent Group, and a couple more Con defections there leaves Con + DUP with no majority, and a whole pile of urgent legislation that needs to be passed.

    The Conservatives ought to want an early election, surely, for at least two reasons: first, if Corbyn is suppressing Labour's vote, then there should be an election before the Labour leader is replaced; second, there should be an election before economic damage from Brexit piles up, and while any disruption can be written off as a glitch.

    So if the government believes its own propaganda, there will be an early election, almost certainly under a new leader (and the expected bounce would be a third reason for the Tories to call a snap election).
    Yes, if there’s an orderly Brexit followed by an orderly change of leader/PM, then an election in the autumn might be a consideration.

    The risk comes if the election is forced on the Conservatives by a breakdown in the DUP relationship or by defections among their own MPs.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 463
    The Conservatives are on increasingly shaky ground in Scotland. Although Ruth Davidson is returning from maternity leave, things have moved on in her absence. The more ERG minded MPs, like Colin Clark in Gordon, who have been trying to big up the SNP in order to keep a "Unionist" coalition together are finding voters are giving a "plague on both your houses" message to both them and the SNP.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,585
    Scott_P said:
    The “four main contenders” to succeed May is a pretty dismal list.

    We’ve read the May set to go story multiple times now; is it true this time ?

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,751
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    The “four main contenders” to succeed May is a pretty dismal list.

    We’ve read the May set to go story multiple times now; is it true this time ?

    And how did a failed stint as Brexit minister ever make Raab a contender?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,751

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    The utility of the traditional UNS model is breaking down, with the declining party allegiance and political volatility, particularly the shift away from class-based voting patterns. This is what made the last election difficult to predict at local level, with surprises such as Canterbury, Mansfield and Kensington for those who didn't trust the YouGov model. I don't see any reason why things should be different next time - indeed with TIG and potential electoral deals, the seats that might change hands could become even harder to identify in advance.

    I'm not saying you're wrong but are there some numbers showing that? Breaking it down into two questions, is UNS getting worse at the aggregate level, and are the outliers getting outlierier?
    The 2017 GE saw a swing of just over 2% from Tory to Labour. Looking just at Tory/Lab marginals (where UNS is strongest), the same pre-election analysis would have identified about 16 Tory seats that should have gone Labour.

    In the event, Labour made 28 gains from the Tories but lost back 6. Of the sixteen predicted gains, Morley, Thurrock, Bolton W, Telford and Plymouth Moorview failed to materialise, whereas Canterbury was no. 122 on the Labour target list and Canterbury no. 104. Mansfield was no. 54 on the list of seats the Tories expected to gain had there been a swing to them.
    Thanks - predicting 16 and ending up with 22 doesn't sound too bad in the aggregate.

    Those outliers feel pretty big but I'm wondering if it's unusual to have outliers that big? I mean, weird stuff always happens...
    The lead is about where the seats that might fall are, not how many.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,751
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,826
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    The “four main contenders” to succeed May is a pretty dismal list.

    We’ve read the May set to go story multiple times now; is it true this time ?

    And how did a failed stint as Brexit minister ever make Raab a contender?
    He'll be seen as failing for the right reasons by the undead of the membership.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,992
    Good morning, everyone.

    The anti-Semitism intervention story looks significant.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,281
    Yep - Corbyn Labour guarantees Tory governments. Until Labour members decide that’s not a good thing nothing changes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,722

    Good morning, everyone.

    The anti-Semitism intervention story looks significant.

    In a "confirms what you fully expected" kind of way.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,281
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    The “four main contenders” to succeed May is a pretty dismal list.

    We’ve read the May set to go story multiple times now; is it true this time ?

    The Conservative Party is devoid of talent and has run out of ideas. It is nothing but a vehicle to create careers for ambitious, second-raters. But it will keep on winning because it faces an unelectable opposition. That’s why these are the last days of the UK - at least in its current form.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,173

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    The “four main contenders” to succeed May is a pretty dismal list.

    We’ve read the May set to go story multiple times now; is it true this time ?

    The Conservative Party is devoid of talent and has run out of ideas. It is nothing but a vehicle to create careers for ambitious, second-raters. But it will keep on winning because it faces an unelectable opposition. That’s why these are the last days of the UK - at least in its current form.

    Liz Truss is not second rate. Not in her wildest dreams.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,247
    Thanks @Alistair - interesting piece.

    i trust that "small time" is a typo of "small town". Small time indeed !
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,640
    Who wouldn't want a Bible signed by Donald Trump?

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,281
    On tòpic, I think Alastair underestimates how many people voted Labour in 2017 to prevent the kind of Brexit May was advocating. If the next General Election takes place after we’ve left - which it almost certainly will - that reason goes away. I think turnout next time will be very interesting to keep an eye on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,137
    rcs1000 said:

    Who wouldn't want a Bible signed by Donald Trump?

    Is he going to start telling us he's the author?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,554
    rcs1000 said:

    Who wouldn't want a Bible signed by Donald Trump?

    Noticably different to Puerto Rico.

    This reply has the situation sussed, unfortunately.



  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,992
    Mr. 1000, Jesus?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,218
    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,585
    Jonathan said:
    We do know Britain’s future relationship with the EU.

    I believe the word is fractious.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,137
    edited March 10

    Mr. 1000, Jesus?

    Lots of people probably say 'Dear God' when he's about. Maybe he's just got confused.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,137
    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:
    We do know Britain’s future relationship with the EU.

    I believe the word is fractious.
    The word Alistair Campbell would use is 'robust.'
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,070
    IanB2 said:

    London is heading the way of most other large UK cities and the Tories will find most of their defences exceptionally difficult, whatever.

    The Tories won't find it hard to defend Harrow East, Hendon, and Finchley & Golders Green. That leaves Richmond a likely loss, Chipping Barnet, ditto, Chingford, and Putney which I'd expect them to hold (though much will turn on whether Justine Greening runs as an independent)

    On the other side of the ledger, I'd expect them to regain Kensington, and for Battersea to be very tight.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,585
    Dura_Ace said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    The “four main contenders” to succeed May is a pretty dismal list.

    We’ve read the May set to go story multiple times now; is it true this time ?

    And how did a failed stint as Brexit minister ever make Raab a contender?
    He'll be seen as failing for the right reasons by the undead of the membership.
    Interesting story about the Tornado navigator refuseniks in the last thread.
    I remember the stuff about incompetent weapons delivery from Admiral Woodward’s evidence in favour of retaining the Harrier back at the beginning of the decade, but that was... new.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,585
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:
    We do know Britain’s future relationship with the EU.

    I believe the word is fractious.
    The word Alistair Campbell would use is 'robust.'
    That would be unusually polite for him.


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,137
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:
    We do know Britain’s future relationship with the EU.

    I believe the word is fractious.
    The word Alistair Campbell would use is 'robust.'
    That would be unusually polite for him.
    It was when he was asked whether or not he was a bully.

    So by his standards it was more 'unusually honest.'
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,826
    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,137
    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    But does he have a Yorkshire terrier in his lap?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,713
    Jonathan said:
    The person who told me TIG was going to happen with uncanny detail a week or so before it happened, told me that Tony Blair and John Major were “ready to step in as co-PMs” in the event of a truly calamitous No Deal situation.

    I pointed out that neither had any mandate at all, but my informant was unfazed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,992
    Mr. Walker, even in current political times, full of turbulence and strange events, that would stand out.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,218
    The women's parents are originally from Pakistan, and the Home Office could pursue the argument that they are Pakistani nationals.
    Last month Reema Iqbal told The Telegraph she was hopeful of returning to the UK.
    She said: "The security services came to speak to me and I was honest, I told them my whole story so now it’s up to them to judge. I don’t know if my Mum ever got me a Pakistani passport or not, I’ve never been to Pakistan. ..."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/03/09/two-isil-brides-stripped-british-citizenship/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,554
    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,137

    Jonathan said:
    The person who told me TIG was going to happen with uncanny detail a week or so before it happened, told me that Tony Blair and John Major were “ready to step in as co-PMs” in the event of a truly calamitous No Deal situation.

    I pointed out that neither had any mandate at all, but my informant was unfazed.
    That seems to me to be the best possible argument against a no-deal scenario.

    Forget all the economics - just tell people Blair will be back as PM and they'll vote Remain without hesitation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,137
    edited March 10
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    Have to agree with that. The real victims in this, leaving aside questions of age, responsibility, remorse etc, are the three babies.

    Perhaps a metaphor for the whole of Daesh - the guilty don't understand the enormity of what they did, and the innocent suffer for their mistakes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,674

    Jonathan said:
    The person who told me TIG was going to happen with uncanny detail a week or so before it happened, told me that Tony Blair and John Major were “ready to step in as co-PMs” in the event of a truly calamitous No Deal situation.

    I pointed out that neither had any mandate at all, but my informant was unfazed.
    TB appears to still not understand, that every time he opens his mouth a few more people move over to the No Deal column, on the basis that the polar opposite of what TB wants must be the best idea for any given subject.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,713
    Off topic, it’s a shame to see Grace Blakeley-Walker move from fiercely smart exponent of socialist economics to fully signed up Corbynist cultural warrior.

    It’s a shame because we need more independent policy thinking and critique, and rather less jumping on social media bandwagons.

    One presumes she has been promised a safe seat or something.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,585
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    True, but is that justificati9n for washing our hands of any responsibility ?

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,713
    edited March 10
    This article really does read like a piss-take of “Rumpface of the Bailey”.

    As he does so, he leans intently forward on the edge of his green ministerial sofa, as if he feels he can force a deal through purely with his own strength of character.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6791053/Hand-heart-Ill-way-beat-backstop-DAN-HODGES-reveals-Attorney-Generals-pledge.html
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 22,674
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    True, but is that justificati9n for washing our hands of any responsibility ?
    We could always take the French approach, of using the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service to make sure they accidentally bump their head on a bullet while in Syria?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,137
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    True, but is that justificati9n for washing our hands of any responsibility ?
    We could always take the French approach, of using the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service to make sure they accidentally bump their head on a bullet while in Syria?
    There's a need for your sass, sir?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,218
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    Have to agree with that. The real victims in this, leaving aside questions of age, responsibility, remorse etc, are the three babies.

    Perhaps a metaphor for the whole of Daesh - the guilty don't understand the enormity of what they did, and the innocent suffer for their mistakes.
    Many of those I've spoken to - men and women - seemed to have been lured to join the caliphate, believing it was their Islamic duty; hoping to lend support and help to persecuted civilians who were being bombed by Syrian President Bashar al Assad and being killed and injured daily.
    But the extremists went on to kill Yazidi men and enslave thousands of Yazidi women, buying and selling them at markets.
    They instilled an extreme form of Islam over their controlling population, and executions and amputations were commonplace.
    But Reema Iqbal does not want to talk about this. She is polite, friendly and smiles frequently, but she is adamant she is not going to talk to anyone right now.
    "I don't trust anyone. I'm sorry. I've been burned before," she said.

    https://news.sky.com/story/i-dont-trust-anyone-the-british-women-who-married-is-jihadis-11638517
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,826
    Nigelb said:



    Interesting story about the Tornado navigator refuseniks in the last thread.
    I remember the stuff about incompetent weapons delivery from Admiral Woodward’s evidence in favour of retaining the Harrier back at the beginning of the decade, but that was... new.

    One of the big advantage the Tornado had over the Harrier was that it was (relatively) easy to fly while the Harrier was challenging and would punish a moment of inattention with fiery death. eg when performing an RVL in Harrier the fore and aft moment of the stick would change from controlling flight path to pitch to ground speed and back to pitch again within the space of 40 seconds. Get any of that wrong (plenty did) and they'd be sending your remains back to mum in a snuff box.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,137
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    Have to agree with that. The real victims in this, leaving aside questions of age, responsibility, remorse etc, are the three babies.

    Perhaps a metaphor for the whole of Daesh - the guilty don't understand the enormity of what they did, and the innocent suffer for their mistakes.
    Many of those I've spoken to - men and women - seemed to have been lured to join the caliphate, believing it was their Islamic duty; hoping to lend support and help to persecuted civilians who were being bombed by Syrian President Bashar al Assad and being killed and injured daily.
    But the extremists went on to kill Yazidi men and enslave thousands of Yazidi women, buying and selling them at markets.
    They instilled an extreme form of Islam over their controlling population, and executions and amputations were commonplace.
    But Reema Iqbal does not want to talk about this. She is polite, friendly and smiles frequently, but she is adamant she is not going to talk to anyone right now.
    "I don't trust anyone. I'm sorry. I've been burned before," she said.

    https://news.sky.com/story/i-dont-trust-anyone-the-british-women-who-married-is-jihadis-11638517
    That could be read several ways.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,789
    Really good piece Alastair. To be honest I had either forgotten or not fully appreciated how close May came to a majority. 19 additional seats would have made the course of this Parliament very different.

    What is also interesting is what a large part Scotland will play at the next election. Quite a large number of targets and awkward defences there.

    Corbyn was in Dundee on Friday. I missed him but it seemed an interesting choice. Both of the Dundee seats are wildly out of reach now and Fife, once a Labour stronghold, is not much better. Scottish Labour are not in a good place but none of the Scottish parties are.

    The SNP, and Nicola in particular, are looking tired and slightly tarnished. The ongoing issues with Salmond are a major distraction and the government has very little to show. The ongoing agonies of Brexit are also a major problem. Anyone claiming that leaving the UK would be easy are just going to be laughed at.

    The Tories have missed Ruth during her absence. Indeed it has vividly shown once again both how fortunate they are to have her and how shallow the talent pool is. She was and is a staunch remainer so maternity leave during the current shambles has been a useful time out for her. It will be interesting to see how her position evolves in the now unlikely event that the deal goes through.

    The Lib Dems continue to struggle to be heard but certainly have aspirations to do better, particularly in Edinburgh. A Scottish leader might make a difference.

    Overall Scotland looks pretty messy to me. There are lots of potential losers but the winners are harder to spot.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,713
    Almost as compelling as Curry Tuesdays.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,992
    Mr. Chris, ISIS was in the news every day.

    They were crucifying children, burning prisoners alive, sexually enslaving women, attempting to totally exterminate the Yazidis.

    Would we believe defectors to the Nazis who claimed they wanted to help civilians suffering at the hands of the Soviets, or made homeless by Allied bombing?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,137

    Would we believe defectors to the Nazis who claimed they wanted to help civilians suffering at the hands of the Soviets, or made homeless by Allied bombing?

    We didn't. That's why we handed back the Cossacks so the Soviets could massacre them.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,826
    DRINK! FECK! LEAVE!
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 533
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    Doesn’t society have an obligation to protect minors from the consequences of making pisspoor decisions? Safeguarding, I believe the term to be?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,751
    How many Brexit parties and movements do we need? Why are leavers seemingly always unable to agree even amongst themselves?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,585
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:



    Interesting story about the Tornado navigator refuseniks in the last thread.
    I remember the stuff about incompetent weapons delivery from Admiral Woodward’s evidence in favour of retaining the Harrier back at the beginning of the decade, but that was... new.

    One of the big advantage the Tornado had over the Harrier was that it was (relatively) easy to fly while the Harrier was challenging and would punish a moment of inattention with fiery death. eg when performing an RVL in Harrier the fore and aft moment of the stick would change from controlling flight path to pitch to ground speed and back to pitch again within the space of 40 seconds. Get any of that wrong (plenty did) and they'd be sending your remains back to mum in a snuff box.
    Woodward was also rather... salty about the skills (and attitude) of the RAF Harrier flyers relative to that of their Navy colleagues in his submission.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,885
    Streeter said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    Doesn’t society have an obligation to protect minors from the consequences of making pisspoor decisions? Safeguarding, I believe the term to be?
    She chose to leave our society and go to Syria. Let the Syrians help her.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,434
    edited March 10
    IanB2 said:

    How many Brexit parties and movements do we need? Why are leavers seemingly always unable to agree even amongst themselves?
    I'm in. Who wouldn't want to ditch Prosecco when you could pay twice as much for British sparkling wine?*

    * while stocks last
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,713
    IanB2 said:

    How many Brexit parties and movements do we need? Why are leavers seemingly always unable to agree even amongst themselves?
    No doubt the Catholics said that about the Protestants during the Reformation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,137
    edited March 10
    Streeter said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    Doesn’t society have an obligation to protect minors from the consequences of making pisspoor decisions? Safeguarding, I believe the term to be?
    No. It has a duty to raise concerns about such children if we are concerned they are about to make such a decision so appropriate help and support can be offered. But if it is refused, it can't when the last comes to the last be forced on them.

    Ultimately, any fifteen year old can make bad choices, and many of them do. There is a limit to what can be done to stop them. In this case, for example, the only way to stop Shamima Begum making such a disastrous error would have been to lock her up, which would obviously have really helped convince her that ISIS was a Bad Thing and the West was on her side.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,585
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    True, but is that justificati9n for washing our hands of any responsibility ?
    We could always take the French approach, of using the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service to make sure they accidentally bump their head on a bullet while in Syria?
    An interesting approach to childcare.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,565
    Mr Dancer,

    As bin Laden said ... "When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they will like the strong horse."

    As long as ISIS looked to be winning, they gained recruits unbothered by their sadistic methods. The chance to be bullies and to oppress others attracted them. Now they are losing, they become cooks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,992
    Mr. B, point of order: she's 19. Not a child.

    She also didn't repudiate the ideology of ISIS and only murmured in that direction when the backlash to her interview occurred (even then equating the Manchester terrorist attack to Coalition airstrikes on ISIS).

    Mr. Doethur, have to admit I'm unfamiliar with that part of WWII. I think I've only heard it mentioned in a Bond film or two before.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 10,554
    edited March 10
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    Have to agree with that. The real victims in this, leaving aside questions of age, responsibility, remorse etc, are the three babies.

    Perhaps a metaphor for the whole of Daesh - the guilty don't understand the enormity of what they did, and the innocent suffer for their mistakes.
    There are tens of thousands of dead children, the only difference was that this one was British, and presumably Dutch.

    Should citizenship matter so much when you are dead? Or should we care as much or as little as any other child?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,585
    ydoethur said:

    Streeter said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    Doesn’t society have an obligation to protect minors from the consequences of making pisspoor decisions? Safeguarding, I believe the term to be?
    No. It has a duty to raise concerns about such children if we are concerned they are about to make such a decision so appropriate help and support can be offered. But if it is refused, it can't when the last comes to the last be forced on them.

    Ultimately, any fifteen year old can make bad choices, and many of them do. There is a limit to what can be done to stop them. In this case, for example, the only way to stop Shamima Begum making such a disastrous error would have been to lock her up, which would obviously have really helped convince her that ISIS was a Bad Thing and the West was on her side.
    I don’t have a problem with that argument - but the state nonetheless retains some responsibility for its citizens, and (more saliently from the point of view of public opinion) their young offspring. Deprivation of citizenship is a questionable act, morally and legally, with potentially fatal consequences for those who had no part in the original offence.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,585

    Mr. B, point of order: she's 19. Not a child.

    She also didn't repudiate the ideology of ISIS and only murmured in that direction when the backlash to her interview occurred (even then equating the Manchester terrorist attack to Coalition airstrikes on ISIS).

    I was referring to “the five boys under the age of eight” in the BBC report under discussion.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,803

    This article really does read like a piss-take of “Rumpface of the Bailey”.

    As he does so, he leans intently forward on the edge of his green ministerial sofa, as if he feels he can force a deal through purely with his own strength of character.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6791053/Hand-heart-Ill-way-beat-backstop-DAN-HODGES-reveals-Attorney-Generals-pledge.html

    Has Hodges lost the plot? Underneath the AG interview, he exclaims:
    But I understand Labour officials are considering an incredible plan to unseat Berger at the next Election

    In what alternative universe would the Conservative and Labour Parties not seek to regain seats from MPs who'd defected? The news is that there might still be a path for prodigal MPs to return.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,992
    Mr. B, ah, fair enough, my mistake.

    Mr. CD13, quite. ISIS' followers haven't converted to the West, they've just lost the war.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,394
    It's hard to see Brexit not being the dominant feature of the next election. Specifically the various factions' reactions to the failure of Brexit. Remainers on why Brexit happened at all; Leavers on why it wasn't done properly, and the uninterested in why it dominates everything at the expense of the stuff they care about.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,885
    Soubry's playing to the gallery there. There's no leadership being shown in letting an ISIS traitor who chose to leave this country back into it. She made her choice, she can live with the consequence and the gallery of right-on people who care more about a traitor than the millions who have suffered due to her twisted ideology are showing no leadership.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 26,722
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Streeter said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    Doesn’t society have an obligation to protect minors from the consequences of making pisspoor decisions? Safeguarding, I believe the term to be?
    No. It has a duty to raise concerns about such children if we are concerned they are about to make such a decision so appropriate help and support can be offered. But if it is refused, it can't when the last comes to the last be forced on them.

    Ultimately, any fifteen year old can make bad choices, and many of them do. There is a limit to what can be done to stop them. In this case, for example, the only way to stop Shamima Begum making such a disastrous error would have been to lock her up, which would obviously have really helped convince her that ISIS was a Bad Thing and the West was on her side.
    I don’t have a problem with that argument - but the state nonetheless retains some responsibility for its citizens, and (more saliently from the point of view of public opinion) their young offspring. Deprivation of citizenship is a questionable act, morally and legally, with potentially fatal consequences for those who had no part in the original offence.

    The State she chose was the Caliphate. When the decision to join that brigade of barbaric bastards was shown to have been a disastrously bad move - a move she is still unapologetic about - the UK is supposed to provide a safety net?
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 533
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Streeter said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    Doesn’t society have an obligation to protect minors from the consequences of making pisspoor decisions? Safeguarding, I believe the term to be?
    No. It has a duty to raise concerns about such children if we are concerned they are about to make such a decision so appropriate help and support can be offered. But if it is refused, it can't when the last comes to the last be forced on them.

    Ultimately, any fifteen year old can make bad choices, and many of them do. There is a limit to what can be done to stop them. In this case, for example, the only way to stop Shamima Begum making such a disastrous error would have been to lock her up, which would obviously have really helped convince her that ISIS was a Bad Thing and the West was on her side.
    I don’t have a problem with that argument - but the state nonetheless retains some responsibility for its citizens, and (more saliently from the point of view of public opinion) their young offspring. Deprivation of citizenship is a questionable act, morally and legally, with potentially fatal consequences for those who had no part in the original offence.

    If she had been 14 when she decided to go, would you take the same view? 13? 12?

    At what age does the PB ‘damn her and her bad choices’ logic end?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,803
    edited March 10
    ydoethur said:

    Streeter said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    Doesn’t society have an obligation to protect minors from the consequences of making pisspoor decisions? Safeguarding, I believe the term to be?
    No. It has a duty to raise concerns about such children if we are concerned they are about to make such a decision so appropriate help and support can be offered. But if it is refused, it can't when the last comes to the last be forced on them.

    Ultimately, any fifteen year old can make bad choices, and many of them do. There is a limit to what can be done to stop them. In this case, for example, the only way to stop Shamima Begum making such a disastrous error would have been to lock her up, which would obviously have really helped convince her that ISIS was a Bad Thing and the West was on her side.
    But surely more could have been done to stop these three schoolgirls joining ISIS?

    One curious aspect of this whole affair is that the security services seemed not to notice or wonder about three unaccompanied minors flying on one-way tickets on a known route to ISIS. Burgess and Maclean could escape to Russia because the MI5 teams following Maclean only worked 9 to 5 Monday to Friday. It seems any lessons learned have been forgotten.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,033

    Jonathan said:
    The person who told me TIG was going to happen with uncanny detail a week or so before it happened, told me that Tony Blair and John Major were “ready to step in as co-PMs” in the event of a truly calamitous No Deal situation.

    I pointed out that neither had any mandate at all, but my informant was unfazed.
    If Her Majesty calls I am ready to step into the breach to attempt to heal wounds and bridge divisions.

    Doesn't matter how ready and willing I might be if the call never comes.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,995

    Soubry's playing to the gallery there. There's no leadership being shown in letting an ISIS traitor who chose to leave this country back into it. She made her choice, she can live with the consequence and the gallery of right-on people who care more about a traitor than the millions who have suffered due to her twisted ideology are showing no leadership.
    In fairness, she's not (and nobody will accuse me of being a fan of hers). The gallery, as measured by polling, is overwhelmingly in favour of the Government's policy on this - though as I've said I think opinion has probably shifted somewhat since the last polling a few weeks ago.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253
    'We have always been clear on this' - 'let me make this clear' - Starmer talking obfuscation on Sophy Ridge on a second referendum and is so much part of the disaster that is unfolding in front of our eyes

    Starmer trying to hide he really, really wants to remain, but doing it very poorly
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,585
    The only thing I am very confident about in betting on the Democratic race is that Tulsi Gabbard will not be the nominee...
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/09/mazie-hirono-trump-1214714
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,137

    ydoethur said:

    Streeter said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    Doesn’t society have an obligation to protect minors from the consequences of making pisspoor decisions? Safeguarding, I believe the term to be?
    No. It has a duty to raise concerns about such children if we are concerned they are about to make such a decision so appropriate help and support can be offered. But if it is refused, it can't when the last comes to the last be forced on them.

    Ultimately, any fifteen year old can make bad choices, and many of them do. There is a limit to what can be done to stop them. In this case, for example, the only way to stop Shamima Begum making such a disastrous error would have been to lock her up, which would obviously have really helped convince her that ISIS was a Bad Thing and the West was on her side.
    But surely more could have been done to stop these three schoolgirls joining ISIS?

    One curious aspect of this whole affair is that the security services seemed not to notice or wonder about three unaccompanied minors flying on one-way tickets on a known route to ISIS. Burgess and Maclean could escape to Russia because the MI5 teams following Maclean only worked 9 to 5 Monday to Friday. It seems any lessons learned have been forgotten.
    By arresting them, yes, if they had been spotted at the airport.

    But then what?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,803
    "The family of" sounds a bit vague. Does it mean immediate family or are we talking about second cousins twice removed?

    We already know that Corbyn is surrounded by posh millionaires. Is this news or just gossip?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 4,218

    Soubry's playing to the gallery there. There's no leadership being shown in letting an ISIS traitor who chose to leave this country back into it. She made her choice, she can live with the consequence and the gallery of right-on people who care more about a traitor than the millions who have suffered due to her twisted ideology are showing no leadership.
    In fairness, she's not (and nobody will accuse me of being a fan of hers). The gallery, as measured by polling, is overwhelmingly in favour of the Government's policy on this - though as I've said I think opinion has probably shifted somewhat since the last polling a few weeks ago.
    Surely no one is so naive as to believe that, if public opinion had been strongly in favour of bringing these women and their children back to the UK, the government wouldn't have brought them back?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,400

    Jonathan said:
    The person who told me TIG was going to happen with uncanny detail a week or so before it happened, told me that Tony Blair and John Major were “ready to step in as co-PMs” in the event of a truly calamitous No Deal situation.

    I pointed out that neither had any mandate at all, but my informant was unfazed.
    Given Parliament is likely to vote for extension of Article 50 and EUref2 or BINO rather than risk No Deal if it still refuses to endorse the Deal that is unlikely though of course given the hung parliament neither May nor Corbyn have a clear mandate either
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 8,033
    Thinking about the last election, the curious aspect was that Labour was able to win Leave seats like Peterborough despite Brexit (on small swings) and strong Remain seats like Canterbury (on huge swings).

    I wonder whether there was a tendency for Leave voters to discount Brexit when voting because they already had what they wanted (or thought they did) whereas for Remain voters it felt more urgent to vote on Brexit lines (and for whatever reason Labour was perceived to be the best Remain option).

    This means that if the next election is fought in an atmosphere of Brexit being lost, or in real peril, then one might expect Leave voters to be more motivated to vote on Brexit lines than Remain voters. This suggests that an election will be bad for whichever side temporarily has the upper hand. If MPs are aware of this then it makes any election exceptionally unlikely, but if one does happen it is likely to increase political instability rather than decrease it - and this is likely to be the case until a compromise can be reached that is acceptable to both sides. Is that possible within the next decade? I have my doubts.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,995

    On tòpic, I think Alastair underestimates how many people voted Labour in 2017 to prevent the kind of Brexit May was advocating. If the next General Election takes place after we’ve left - which it almost certainly will - that reason goes away. I think turnout next time will be very interesting to keep an eye on.

    FWIW my canvassing is turning up a LOT of people who say they won't vote next time because of the national mess. Most are Brexiteers who think the political class has sold them out (and this is in deepest prosperous Surrey) but some are just generally fed up. If one tries to turn their attention to the local issues that the election is supposed to be about, they shrug and say yes, but Brexit...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,585

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Streeter said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    Doesn’t society have an obligation to protect minors from the consequences of making pisspoor decisions? Safeguarding, I believe the term to be?
    No. It has a duty to raise concerns about such children if we are concerned they are about to make such a decision so appropriate help and support can be offered. But if it is refused, it can't when the last comes to the last be forced on them.

    Ultimately, any fifteen year old can make bad choices, and many of them do. There is a limit to what can be done to stop them. In this case, for example, the only way to stop Shamima Begum making such a disastrous error would have been to lock her up, which would obviously have really helped convince her that ISIS was a Bad Thing and the West was on her side.
    I don’t have a problem with that argument - but the state nonetheless retains some responsibility for its citizens, and (more saliently from the point of view of public opinion) their young offspring. Deprivation of citizenship is a questionable act, morally and legally, with potentially fatal consequences for those who had no part in the original offence.

    The State she chose was the Caliphate. When the decision to join that brigade of barbaric bastards was shown to have been a disastrously bad move - a move she is still unapologetic about - the UK is supposed to provide a safety net?
    For what other criminal offence does that sate absolve itself of all future responsibility for the offspring of the criminal ?
    The ‘Caliphate’ was never a state in international law, and I don’t recall you - or HMG - being in favour of its recognition.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,696

    On tòpic, I think Alastair underestimates how many people voted Labour in 2017 to prevent the kind of Brexit May was advocating. If the next General Election takes place after we’ve left - which it almost certainly will - that reason goes away. I think turnout next time will be very interesting to keep an eye on.

    FWIW my canvassing is turning up a LOT of people who say they won't vote next time because of the national mess. Most are Brexiteers who think the political class has sold them out (and this is in deepest prosperous Surrey) but some are just generally fed up. If one tries to turn their attention to the local issues that the election is supposed to be about, they shrug and say yes, but Brexit...
    I hate to say “I told you so” but I have been banging on for quite some time about how Brexit identity is stronger than party identity.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253

    Soubry's playing to the gallery there. There's no leadership being shown in letting an ISIS traitor who chose to leave this country back into it. She made her choice, she can live with the consequence and the gallery of right-on people who care more about a traitor than the millions who have suffered due to her twisted ideology are showing no leadership.
    In fairness, she's not (and nobody will accuse me of being a fan of hers). The gallery, as measured by polling, is overwhelmingly in favour of the Government's policy on this - though as I've said I think opinion has probably shifted somewhat since the last polling a few weeks ago.
    When Begum appeared with her baby, held by no doubt someone looking after her, my wife and I both commented how tiny the child was and doubted the child would survive.

    The whole episode is desperately sad but I very much doubt anything could have been done in the short time to the childs passing that would either have saved the child or provided time to even bring the child, with or without his mother, back to the UK

    Last time a poll showed 78% opposing Begum being allowed to return and I doubt that opinion has changed significantly since.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,696

    Thinking about the last election, the curious aspect was that Labour was able to win Leave seats like Peterborough despite Brexit (on small swings) and strong Remain seats like Canterbury (on huge swings).

    I wonder whether there was a tendency for Leave voters to discount Brexit when voting because they already had what they wanted (or thought they did) whereas for Remain voters it felt more urgent to vote on Brexit lines (and for whatever reason Labour was perceived to be the best Remain option).

    This means that if the next election is fought in an atmosphere of Brexit being lost, or in real peril, then one might expect Leave voters to be more motivated to vote on Brexit lines than Remain voters. This suggests that an election will be bad for whichever side temporarily has the upper hand. If MPs are aware of this then it makes any election exceptionally unlikely, but if one does happen it is likely to increase political instability rather than decrease it - and this is likely to be the case until a compromise can be reached that is acceptable to both sides. Is that possible within the next decade? I have my doubts.

    I agree with all of your deductions.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,885

    Soubry's playing to the gallery there. There's no leadership being shown in letting an ISIS traitor who chose to leave this country back into it. She made her choice, she can live with the consequence and the gallery of right-on people who care more about a traitor than the millions who have suffered due to her twisted ideology are showing no leadership.
    In fairness, she's not (and nobody will accuse me of being a fan of hers). The gallery, as measured by polling, is overwhelmingly in favour of the Government's policy on this - though as I've said I think opinion has probably shifted somewhat since the last polling a few weeks ago.
    There's more than one gallery here. Her gallery isn't the public, she doesn't care what they want as has been shown by her response to the public's vote on Brexit. She's playing to the gallery of bleeding hearts of which there are many on this thread who want her brought back.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,803
    edited March 10
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Streeter said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    Doesn’t society have an obligation to protect minors from the consequences of making pisspoor decisions? Safeguarding, I believe the term to be?
    No. It has a duty to raise concerns about such children if we are concerned they are about to make such a decision so appropriate help and support can be offered. But if it is refused, it can't when the last comes to the last be forced on them.

    Ultimately, any fifteen year old can make bad choices, and many of them do. There is a limit to what can be done to stop them. In this case, for example, the only way to stop Shamima Begum making such a disastrous error would have been to lock her up, which would obviously have really helped convince her that ISIS was a Bad Thing and the West was on her side.
    But surely more could have been done to stop these three schoolgirls joining ISIS?

    One curious aspect of this whole affair is that the security services seemed not to notice or wonder about three unaccompanied minors flying on one-way tickets on a known route to ISIS. Burgess and Maclean could escape to Russia because the MI5 teams following Maclean only worked 9 to 5 Monday to Friday. It seems any lessons learned have been forgotten.
    By arresting them, yes, if they had been spotted at the airport.

    But then what?
    I don't know. Confiscate their passports? Give them a stiff talking to and return them home? That is not really the point.

    The worrying part is that the security services did not seem to have noticed them leave. Why is MI5 not monitoring ticket sales, let alone the airport?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 879

    Soubry's playing to the gallery there. There's no leadership being shown in letting an ISIS traitor who chose to leave this country back into it. She made her choice, she can live with the consequence and the gallery of right-on people who care more about a traitor than the millions who have suffered due to her twisted ideology are showing no leadership.
    What gallery? The gallery is overwhelmingly opposed to Soubry's view here. The majority of the public, in their infinite wisdom, appear to agree with you. They are more forgiving of, say, Nigel Farage's apparent youthful support of ideologies that caused suffering to millions ( http://i.imgur.com/kwjIik9.jpg ) than this individual's. I cannot for the life of me think why.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,137

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Streeter said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Chris said:

    Two more women from the UK who are being held in Syrian camps with their young children have been stripped of their citizenship, a report says.
    It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
    The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659

    Every time another child dies The Saj applies fresh coat of scalp wax and smiles.
    To have 3 dead children by the age of 19 is desperately sad in anyones book. Hard to protect people from their own pisspoor decisions though.
    Doesn’t society have an obligation to protect minors from the consequences of making pisspoor decisions? Safeguarding, I believe the term to be?
    No. It has a duty to raise concerns about such children if we are concerned they are about to make such a decision so appropriate help and support can be offered. But if it is refused, it can't when the last comes to the last be forced on them.

    Ultimately, any fifteen year old can make bad choices, and many of them do. There is a limit to what can be done to stop them. In this case, for example, the only way to stop Shamima Begum making such a disastrous error would have been to lock her up, which would obviously have really helped convince her that ISIS was a Bad Thing and the West was on her side.
    But surely more could have been done to stop these three schoolgirls joining ISIS?

    One curious aspect of this whole affair is that the security services seemed not to notice or wonder about three unaccompanied minors flying on one-way tickets on a known route to ISIS. Burgess and Maclean could escape to Russia because the MI5 teams following Maclean only worked 9 to 5 Monday to Friday. It seems any lessons learned have been forgotten.
    By arresting them, yes, if they had been spotted at the airport.

    But then what?
    I don't know.
    I'm afraid those three words are exactly the point.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 26,253

    On tòpic, I think Alastair underestimates how many people voted Labour in 2017 to prevent the kind of Brexit May was advocating. If the next General Election takes place after we’ve left - which it almost certainly will - that reason goes away. I think turnout next time will be very interesting to keep an eye on.

    FWIW my canvassing is turning up a LOT of people who say they won't vote next time because of the national mess. Most are Brexiteers who think the political class has sold them out (and this is in deepest prosperous Surrey) but some are just generally fed up. If one tries to turn their attention to the local issues that the election is supposed to be about, they shrug and say yes, but Brexit...
    Have you thought that they are just being polite to you, rather than admit Corbyn and his entourage are unacceptable to so many
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,585

    On tòpic, I think Alastair underestimates how many people voted Labour in 2017 to prevent the kind of Brexit May was advocating. If the next General Election takes place after we’ve left - which it almost certainly will - that reason goes away. I think turnout next time will be very interesting to keep an eye on.

    FWIW my canvassing is turning up a LOT of people who say they won't vote next time because of the national mess. Most are Brexiteers who think the political class has sold them out (and this is in deepest prosperous Surrey) but some are just generally fed up. If one tries to turn their attention to the local issues that the election is supposed to be about, they shrug and say yes, but Brexit...
    I hate to say “I told you so” but I have been banging on for quite some time about how Brexit identity is stronger than party identity.
    But then the question becomes who those voters are likely to opt for if Brexit succeeds (and opt for, or not turn out for, if it doesn’t).
    There is clearly a difference between strongly self identifying Leavers and Remainers in that the former seem more likely to opt out of the electoral process if they don’t get their Brexit, I think.

    Which goes some way to explaining Corbyn’s determination to frustrate any deal - and makes the ERG even less explicable as rational individuals.
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