Take with as much salt as you wish, I'm only posting it for the purposes of information.
I would view any commentary like this with suspicion. They are clearly looking for any excuse to explain away a result they don't like. You wouldn't see the same kind of in depth analysis from them if it was much closer.
I suspect that in the event Boris achieves a good majority the EU will have until the mid summer to formulate a FTA or Boris will walk us out on WTO
At the same time free ports and 12% corporation tax will arrrive and billions in investment opportunities in RD and other advanced techology will be put on the table
Indeed the EU's worst nightmare of a Singapore off Europe must seem a very real possibility if the EU do not react with a quick FTA
Johnson’s majority makes no difference to the future relationship with the EU it is already defined, it will be significantly worse than our current arrangement but be heralded as a dramatic victory by our pathological liar and amoral PM. Then life can progress but by 31/6 next year is really stretch the bounds of possibility. Don’t forget the extension has to be requested by that date or in the words of Noel Edmonds it’s deal or no deal
So, I paraphrase:
@Big_G_NorthWales , 2019/09: "Boris is risking No Deal! I cannot approve that! I shall leave the party!" @Big_G_NorthWales , 2019/10: "Boris has signed a Deal! I applaud that! I shall rejoin the party!" @Big_G_NorthWales , 2019/11: "Boris is risking No Deal! I approve that! I shall not leave the party!"
Big_G wins this year’s drama queen award, and if he ends up voting for Bozo we at least know that we can safely ignore his future hysteria.
You may disregard every one of my posts and class it hysteria if it makes you feel better
And my vote for Boris is my rejection of Corbyn, that is far more important to me than brexit
And please show me where I said I approve of no deal rather than pointing out it is a very real possibility post summer 2020
As far as I can tell they don't have turnout figures listed.
Thought they weighted based on reported likelihood to vote - which is in there? V002?
You are talking about the Deltapoll PDF?
I am yes.
What page are they listed on? I think I went through every page and didn't see a question on likelihood to vote. V002 is the tab in the excel document containing turnout figures for Opinium, however.
I'm so sorry, I'm looking at completely the wrong pollster. I did have Opinium open and I've just checked again - you're quite right.
By the way, I agree with you that the obvious Corbyn play is to pledge to wipe out all student loans and debt.
So I expect it too.
Thanks for posting your views.
I think the Remain vote will continue to harmonise around Labour, albeit very reluctantly. I think Labour will pledge to remove FOM in their deal but will make it clear that Remaining means it stays, which will be enough to get most Remainers on side.
I expect to see something of a Lib Dem surge in London but not much elsewhere, with their vote squeezed down further to around 10%.
I still think that Tory vote is too high - but the lead seems plausible at present.
Surely his story isn't falling apart. I am shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked.
Who ever advised him will never work in PR again. I mean it isn't like he is some nobody that people won't have 1000s of pictures of or from a time so far back in history that you had to stand still for 5 minutes to get your picture taken.
Take with as much salt as you wish, I'm only posting it for the purposes of information.
I would view any commentary like this with suspicion. They are clearly looking for any excuse to explain away a result they don't like. You wouldn't see the same kind of in depth analysis from them if it was much closer.
Surely his story isn't falling apart. I am shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked.
You ever advised him will never work in PR again. I mean it isn't like he is some nobody that people won't have 1000s of pictures of or from a time so far back in history that you had to stand still for 5 minutes to get your picture taken.
You know the biggest discussion I've had with my friends today.
Did Randy Andy use the 2 for 1 one offer in Pizza Express or did he pay full price?
In hindsight, it seems like every election (at least in recent times) has one overriding, usually not stated, theme that determines the results.
In 2005, it was that the people wanted to send Tony Blair a message they were becoming dissatisfied but to keep him in power = reduced majority;
In 2010, people didn't like Brown and were tired of Labour but didn't trust the Conservatives nor David Cameron enough to give them a majority = hung Parliament
In 2015, it was that David Cameron had done just enough to earn people's trust but - more importantly - they didn't see Ed Milliband as PM material = Tory majority
In 2017, it was that people didn't want Theresa May to have a majority given the more they saw (or didn't) of her, the more they distrusted her = hung Parliament.
What is the theme for this election? Brexit is the obvious one but, actually, I think the key theme running through this is "Do you want Corbyn as PM?" If that is right, then do not expect many LD gains in Tory surburbia (as Tory remainers fear for their wealth under a Corbyn government) and, more to the point, expect a Tory landslide as fear of Corbyn proves the motivating factor of this election.
If the LDs were serious about their strategic positioning in this election and swiping 50-60 seats then they should have positioned themselves to the Right of the Conservatives on economics and pledged a balanced budget, a rise in the basic tax threshold to £15k, ironing out of some pension and withdrawal inconsistencies and raised the 40p limit to £60k. There are signs Ed Davey got this. It would have left Boris floundering in the mud.
But, they have a lefty activist base who they thought would throw a strop. So they did nothing.
Well that is a very interesting theory! I suspect you may be in a minority on this but I suggest you consider that until you understand the basics you can’t push back the boundary’s of science and without that we would be in a Johnson Greek classical dark age arguing if the earth was flat and if the sun moved round the earth.
Of course the Greeks calculated the Earth was in fact round.
Nobody believed the earth was flat. Nada. Zero. Zilch. Everyone knew it was spherical, if only from observation of the horizon. Aquinas based whole theories on this.
The flat earth myth was invented by Washington Irving in his biography of Columbus as an anti-Catholic polemic, and unfortunately the popular success of this work of mostly fiction means it has stuck.
Right, so probably more people now (claim) to believe the world is flat then at any time in at least thousands of years.
Thanks social media. Thanks a bunch.
Probably. The only flat earther I actually know of for definite before the twentieth century was Paul Kruger, President of the Boer Republics.
Apparently there was one Byzantine scholar of the sixth century, Cosmas Indicopleustes, who argued for a flat earth. So I was overly sweeping in my earlier statement that ‘nobody’ believed in it.
I suspect that in the event Boris achieves a good majority the EU will have until the mid summer to formulate a FTA or Boris will walk us out on WTO
At the same time free ports and 12% corporation tax will arrrive and billions in investment opportunities in RD and other advanced techology will be put on the table
Indeed the EU's worst nightmare of a Singapore off Europe must seem a very real possibility if the EU do not react with a quick FTA
Johnson’s majority makes no difference to the future relationship with the EU it is already defined, it will be significantly worse than our current arrangement but be heralded as a dramatic victory by our pathological liar and amoral PM. Then life can progress but by 31/6 next year is really stretch the bounds of possibility. Don’t forget the extension has to be requested by that date or in the words of Noel Edmonds it’s deal or no deal
So, I paraphrase:
@Big_G_NorthWales , 2019/09: "Boris is risking No Deal! I cannot approve that! I shall leave the party!" @Big_G_NorthWales , 2019/10: "Boris has signed a Deal! I applaud that! I shall rejoin the party!" @Big_G_NorthWales , 2019/11: "Boris is risking No Deal! I approve that! I shall not leave the party!"
Big_G wins this year’s drama queen award, and if he ends up voting for Bozo we at least know that we can safely ignore his future hysteria.
You may disregard every one of my posts and class it hysteria if it makes you feel better
And my vote for Boris is my rejection of Corbyn, that is far more important to me than brexit
And please show me where I said I approve of no deal rather than pointing out it is a very real possibility post summer 2020
No-one can go from promising to resign the party if it elected Bozo as its leader to - only months later - rejoining that same party and actually voting for Bozo - and expect to be taken seriously. Sean is more steadfast and principled.
Surely his story isn't falling apart. I am shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked.
You ever advised him will never work in PR again. I mean it isn't like he is some nobody that people won't have 1000s of pictures of or from a time so far back in history that you had to stand still for 5 minutes to get your picture taken.
You know the biggest discussion I've had with my friends today.
Did Randy Andy use the 2 for 1 one offer in Pizza Express or did he pay full price?
Given how clearly emotionally disturbing a trip to Woking and especially Pizza Express in Woking was for him, I am sure he can remember exactly what microwaved pasta dish he had.
In hindsight, it seems like every election (at least in recent times) has one overriding, usually not stated, theme that determines the results.
In 2005, it was that the people wanted to send Tony Blair a message they were becoming dissatisfied but to keep him in power = reduced majority;
In 2010, people didn't like Brown and were tired of Labour but didn't trust the Conservatives nor David Cameron enough to give them a majority = hung Parliament
In 2015, it was that David Cameron had done just enough to earn people's trust but - more importantly - they didn't see Ed Milliband as PM material = Tory majority
In 2017, it was that people didn't want Theresa May to have a majority given the more they saw (or didn't) of her, the more they distrusted her = hung Parliament.
What is the theme for this election? Brexit is the obvious one but, actually, I think the key theme running through this is "Do you want Corbyn as PM?" If that is right, then do not expect many LD gains in Tory surburbia (as Tory remainers fear for their wealth under a Corbyn government) and, more to the point, expect a Tory landslide as fear of Corbyn proves the motivating factor of this election.
If the LDs were serious about their strategic positioning in this election and swiping 50-60 seats then they should have positioned themselves to the Right of the Conservatives on economics and pledged a balanced budget, a rise in the basic tax threshold to £15k, ironing out of some pension and withdrawal inconsistencies and raised the 40p limit to £60k. There are signs Ed Davey got this. It would have left Boris floundering in the mud.
But, they have a lefty activist base who they thought would throw a strop. So they did nothing.
Seems to me the LD membership is far more left wing than the party is.
My feeling with the Lib Dems is a lot of their support is very soft - and they're waiting for an excuse to go back to Labour again.
You can graph the decline in Labour in the polls almost exactly to the rise in Lib Dem vote.
As far as I can tell they don't have turnout figures listed.
Thought they weighted based on reported likelihood to vote - which is in there? V002?
You are talking about the Deltapoll PDF?
I am yes.
What page are they listed on? I think I went through every page and didn't see a question on likelihood to vote. V002 is the tab in the excel document containing turnout figures for Opinium, however.
I'm so sorry, I'm looking at completely the wrong pollster. I did have Opinium open and I've just checked again - you're quite right.
By the way, I agree with you that the obvious Corbyn play is to pledge to wipe out all student loans and debt.
So I expect it too.
I think that the 2017 Corbyn offering hit a sweet spot of putting austerity into the shade while retaining plausibility. In 2019 it looks to have located the worm hole which leads to a universe of the wholly fantastical.
I suspect that in the event Boris achieves a good majority the EU will have until the mid summer to formulate a FTA or Boris will walk us out on WTO
At the same time free ports and 12% corporation tax will arrrive and billions in investment opportunities in RD and other advanced techology will be put on the table
Indeed the EU's worst nightmare of a Singapore off Europe must seem a very real possibility if the EU do not react with a quick FTA
Johnson’s majority makes no difference to the future relationship with the EU it is already defined, it will be significantly worse than our current arrangement but be heralded as a dramatic victory by our pathological liar and amoral PM. Then life can progress but by 31/6 next year is really stretch the bounds of possibility. Don’t forget the extension has to be requested by that date or in the words of Noel Edmonds it’s deal or no deal
So, I paraphrase:
@Big_G_NorthWales , 2019/09: "Boris is risking No Deal! I cannot approve that! I shall leave the party!" @Big_G_NorthWales , 2019/10: "Boris has signed a Deal! I applaud that! I shall rejoin the party!" @Big_G_NorthWales , 2019/11: "Boris is risking No Deal! I approve that! I shall not leave the party!"
Big_G wins this year’s drama queen award, and if he ends up voting for Bozo we at least know that we can safely ignore his future hysteria.
You may disregard every one of my posts and class it hysteria if it makes you feel better
And my vote for Boris is my rejection of Corbyn, that is far more important to me than brexit
And please show me where I said I approve of no deal rather than pointing out it is a very real possibility post summer 2020
No-one can go from promising to resign the party if it elected Bozo as its leader to - only months later - rejoining that same party and actually voting for Bozo - and expect to be taken seriously. Sean is more steadfast and principled.
My resignation was a result of the 21 sacked conservatives. Most of those are now back in the fold so your attempt to guilt trip me is pathetic and I really do not care if you take me seriously
Surely his story isn't falling apart. I am shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked.
You ever advised him will never work in PR again. I mean it isn't like he is some nobody that people won't have 1000s of pictures of or from a time so far back in history that you had to stand still for 5 minutes to get your picture taken.
You know the biggest discussion I've had with my friends today.
Did Randy Andy use the 2 for 1 one offer in Pizza Express or did he pay full price?
Surely the biggest question is if he had a Hawaiian?
As far as I can tell they don't have turnout figures listed.
Thought they weighted based on reported likelihood to vote - which is in there? V002?
You are talking about the Deltapoll PDF?
I am yes.
What page are they listed on? I think I went through every page and didn't see a question on likelihood to vote. V002 is the tab in the excel document containing turnout figures for Opinium, however.
I'm so sorry, I'm looking at completely the wrong pollster. I did have Opinium open and I've just checked again - you're quite right.
By the way, I agree with you that the obvious Corbyn play is to pledge to wipe out all student loans and debt.
So I expect it too.
I think that the 2017 Corbyn offering hit a sweet spot of putting austerity into the shade yet retaining plausiibility. In 2019 it looks to have located the worm hole which leads to a universe of the wholly fantasical.
He promised the student thing last time - it'll not be news.
I wonder how long the Airmiles Andy story is going to distract the press for? The Mail are clearly loving this and I bet it is driving massive clicks to their website.
Surely his story isn't falling apart. I am shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked.
You ever advised him will never work in PR again. I mean it isn't like he is some nobody that people won't have 1000s of pictures of or from a time so far back in history that you had to stand still for 5 minutes to get your picture taken.
You know the biggest discussion I've had with my friends today.
Did Randy Andy use the 2 for 1 one offer in Pizza Express or did he pay full price?
Surely the biggest question is if he had a Hawaiian?
There is such a dreadful, tasteless pun I could make there about Virginians....
I wonder how long the Airmiles Andy story is going to distract the press for? The Mail are clearly loving this and I bet it is driving massive clicks to their website.
Forever, we all love the country's biggest welfare recipients Royals being bad.
Surely his story isn't falling apart. I am shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked.
You ever advised him will never work in PR again. I mean it isn't like he is some nobody that people won't have 1000s of pictures of or from a time so far back in history that you had to stand still for 5 minutes to get your picture taken.
You know the biggest discussion I've had with my friends today.
Did Randy Andy use the 2 for 1 one offer in Pizza Express or did he pay full price?
Surely the biggest question is if he had a Hawaiian?
There is such a dreadful, tasteless pun I could make there about Virginians....
Surely his story isn't falling apart. I am shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked.
You ever advised him will never work in PR again. I mean it isn't like he is some nobody that people won't have 1000s of pictures of or from a time so far back in history that you had to stand still for 5 minutes to get your picture taken.
You know the biggest discussion I've had with my friends today.
Did Randy Andy use the 2 for 1 one offer in Pizza Express or did he pay full price?
Surely the biggest question is if he had a Hawaiian?
Not sure, but apparently Andy recalls Ms. Roberts had a Brazilian.
As far as I can tell they don't have turnout figures listed.
Thought they weighted based on reported likelihood to vote - which is in there? V002?
You are talking about the Deltapoll PDF?
I am yes.
What page are they listed on? I think I went through every page and didn't see a question on likelihood to vote. V002 is the tab in the excel document containing turnout figures for Opinium, however.
I'm so sorry, I'm looking at completely the wrong pollster. I did have Opinium open and I've just checked again - you're quite right.
By the way, I agree with you that the obvious Corbyn play is to pledge to wipe out all student loans and debt.
So I expect it too.
I think that the 2017 Corbyn offering hit a sweet spot of putting austerity into the shade while retaining plausibility. In 2019 it looks to have located the worm hole which leads to a universe of the wholly fantastical.
I'm not sure cost reasonates.
Everyone is turning on the taps this time, or so the electorate will see it.
I wonder how long the Airmiles Andy story is going to distract the press for? The Mail are clearly loving this and I bet it is driving massive clicks to their website.
Wait until one of these new videos in a nightclub happens to find Corbyn pole dancing in the background.
In hindsight, it seems like every election (at least in recent times) has one overriding, usually not stated, theme that determines the results.
In 2005, it was that the people wanted to send Tony Blair a message they were becoming dissatisfied but to keep him in power = reduced majority;
In 2010, people didn't like Brown and were tired of Labour but didn't trust the Conservatives nor David Cameron enough to give them a majority = hung Parliament
In 2015, it was that David Cameron had done just enough to earn people's trust but - more importantly - they didn't see Ed Milliband as PM material = Tory majority
In 2017, it was that people didn't want Theresa May to have a majority given the more they saw (or didn't) of her, the more they distrusted her = hung Parliament.
What is the theme for this election? Brexit is the obvious one but, actually, I think the key theme running through this is "Do you want Corbyn as PM?" If that is right, then do not expect many LD gains in Tory surburbia (as Tory remainers fear for their wealth under a Corbyn government) and, more to the point, expect a Tory landslide as fear of Corbyn proves the motivating factor of this election.
If the LDs were serious about their strategic positioning in this election and swiping 50-60 seats then they should have positioned themselves to the Right of the Conservatives on economics and pledged a balanced budget, a rise in the basic tax threshold to £15k, ironing out of some pension and withdrawal inconsistencies and raised the 40p limit to £60k. There are signs Ed Davey got this. It would have left Boris floundering in the mud.
But, they have a lefty activist base who they thought would throw a strop. So they did nothing.
So you think the LibDems should go for a balanced budget and then advocate some tax cuts you would like.
Yet for some reason don't give a list of all the spending cuts which would also be necessary
I wonder how long the Airmiles Andy story is going to distract the press for? The Mail are clearly loving this and I bet it is driving massive clicks to their website.
Wait until one of these new videos in a nightclub happens to find Corbyn pole dancing in the background.
Just for a bit of extra cash you understand.
No, it wouldn't be Jezza daning on the pole, it would show Jezza talking to a lovely lady gyrating a poll all about the benefits of unionization.
I wonder how long the Airmiles Andy story is going to distract the press for? The Mail are clearly loving this and I bet it is driving massive clicks to their website.
Wait until one of these new videos in a nightclub happens to find Corbyn pole dancing in the background.
Just for a bit of extra cash you understand.
No, what it would show is Jezza talking to a lovely lady dancing on a poll about the benefits of unionization.
I've used that excuse before now. Doesn't cut the mustard.
The abolishing of private schools will be about removing tax exemptions and nothing else.
Changes in the tax structure would lead to the abolishing (sic) of the majority of private schools as matters stand. Admittedly changes in the pension regime are going a long way to doing that anyway.
So that would be a distinction without a difference.
Unless it is accompanied by a minimum 7% rise in the education budget, it would also cause the implosion of state education, because there would be nowhere to put these extra children coming in from the private sector. London and Bristol would be particularly hard hit.
It’s not that easy as you are fiddling with the entrails of charity law
I wonder how long the Airmiles Andy story is going to distract the press for? The Mail are clearly loving this and I bet it is driving massive clicks to their website.
Just for a bit of extra cash you understand.
No, what it would show is Jezza talking to a lovely lady dancing on a poll about the benefits of unionization.
I've used that excuse before now. Doesn't cut the mustard.
There is a very funny scene in the Ch4 show Peep Show, where Mark goes to a lap dancing club while trying to write a work presentation...only for he lo
I wonder how long the Airmiles Andy story is going to distract the press for? The Mail are clearly loving this and I bet it is driving massive clicks to their website.
Wait until one of these new videos in a nightclub happens to find Corbyn pole dancing in the background.
Just for a bit of extra cash you understand.
No, what it would show is Jezza talking to a lovely lady dancing on a poll about the benefits of unionization.
I've used that excuse before now. Doesn't cut the mustard.
The thing is in Jezza's case it would more than likely be true.
I heard last two weeks of the campaign, but might be misremembering.
According to Wiki the first YouGov MRP for GE17 was conducted 23-29 May and first issued, I believe, on 30 May 2017. So just 9 days before the election.
The abolishing of private schools will be about removing tax exemptions and nothing else.
Changes in the tax structure would lead to the abolishing (sic) of the majority of private schools as matters stand. Admittedly changes in the pension regime are going a long way to doing that anyway.
So that would be a distinction without a difference.
Unless it is accompanied by a minimum 7% rise in the education budget, it would also cause the implosion of state education, because there would be nowhere to put these extra children coming in from the private sector. London and Bristol would be particularly hard hit.
It’s not that easy as you are fiddling with the entrails of charity law
I think it could be done. Although it would be interesting to see it drawn up in such a way as to leave universities untouched.
But the unintended consequences could easily make Venezuela look like a picnic.
I think the Lib Dems need to ditch the Jo Swinson for PM literature as it’s likely to be met with derision .
It can actually put people off . There’s a line crossed when voters start laughing at your literature. I like the Lib Dems but the PM line needs to be dropped .
That 17% yougov lead has few crumbs of comfort for Remain
Do you know what the Tory lead was in those marginals at the last general election?
You might expect it to be close to zero, but it depends on things like differential turnout, any skew in the distribution of marginal seats and third-party effects.
I asked that very question of Mr Wells, and will report back his answer. If he doesn’t have it to hand, I’ll have to crank up the spreadsheet and estimate it myself.
10,000-seat majority and under for any party is quite a wide spread of seats - about a 20-point lead assuming average turnout?
Going back to this, I worked out that there are 283 seats in GB with a 2017 majority of under 10,000 (“marginals” for these purposes). The average Con lead over Lab in the 283 was 2.0 points. YouGov found a 20-point lead, suggesting a 9% swing in marginals (compared with about 7% overall). Among those certain to vote in these marginals, they found a 26% lead (a swing of 12%).
For the record, the 283 seats are made up as follows:
- 127 won by Con in 2017 - 105 Lab - 12 LD - 4 PC - 35 SNP
Fab work, thanks. No comfort for Labour, but suggests considering majorities upto 5,000 would be more useful.
No problem. Deltapoll tables contain crossbreaks for Lab and Con marginals and safe seats. Unfortunately “marginal” and “safe” aren’t defined and the marginals subsamples are small, so the enormous Tory leads that they found in both Labour and Con marginals should be treated with caution.
Well that is a very interesting theory! I suspect you may be in a minority on this but I suggest you consider that until you understand the basics you can’t push back the boundary’s of science and without that we would be in a Johnson Greek classical dark age arguing if the earth was flat and if the sun moved round the earth.
Of course the Greeks calculated the Earth was in fact round.
Nobody believed the earth was flat. Nada. Zero. Zilch. Everyone knew it was spherical, if only from observation of the horizon. Aquinas based whole theories on this.
The flat earth myth was invented by Washington Irving in his biography of Columbus as an anti-Catholic polemic, and unfortunately the popular success of this work of mostly fiction means it has stuck.
That's actually really interesting - thanks.
The amusing irony of Columbus' voyage is that contrary to popular myth, he was wrong and everyone else was right. Nobody thought he would fall off the edge of the world, but they all said it was impossible for two caravels and a nao to carry sufficient supplies for a westbound voyage to Japan. Everyone would die of thirst before they got there. By contrast Columbus thought the world far smaller than it was, although it had been correctly measured by Erastothenes centuries before.
And had he not crashed into America, the doomsayers would have been right. Indeed, even the first European transpacific voyage under Magellan ran so short of provisions they were forced to eat the leatherwork on the masts. But because America was there, he believed he was right, even though he was still completely wrong.
Which is quite funny when you think about it.
I think Colombus had the Behaim Globe in mind, it was published in 1492 the same year as his adventure:
Big_G wins this year’s drama queen award, and if he ends up voting for Bozo we at least know that we can safely ignore his future hysteria.
You may disregard every one of my posts and class it hysteria if it makes you feel better
And my vote for Boris is my rejection of Corbyn, that is far more important to me than brexit
And please show me where I said I approve of no deal rather than pointing out it is a very real possibility post summer 2020
No-one can go from promising to resign the party if it elected Bozo as its leader to - only months later - rejoining that same party and actually voting for Bozo - and expect to be taken seriously. Sean is more steadfast and principled.
My resignation was a result of the 21 sacked conservatives. Most of those are now back in the fold so your attempt to guilt trip me is pathetic and I really do not care if you take me seriously
Since Boris's Deal will drive a border down the Irish Sea, I expect it will affect Holyhead. As I recall you used to get very worked up about Holyhead and the jobs there. I take it this is no longer a concern? Do you also think that Airbus will stay in N Wales under Boris's deal?
What are predictions in terms of the debate on Tuesday then?
Score draw.
Twitter will think Corbyn won, and on here we’ll assess that he surprised on the upside. In the real world it will make no difference and/or polls will say Boris “won”.
I think that was the Livingstone/Boris debate model.
What are predictions in terms of the debate on Tuesday then?
Score draw.
Twitter will think Corbyn won, and on here we’ll assess that he surprised on the upside. In the real world it will make no difference and/or polls will say Boris “won”.
I think that was the Livingstone/Boris debate model.
Unless one or the other seriously tanks I don't think it'll even be noticed very much. Most people I talk to are fed up with the sight of all politicians.
And we're hitting Xmas party season with lots of other stuff going on.
The abolishing of private schools will be about removing tax exemptions and nothing else.
Changes in the tax structure would lead to the abolishing (sic) of the majority of private schools as matters stand. Admittedly changes in the pension regime are going a long way to doing that anyway.
So that would be a distinction without a difference.
Unless it is accompanied by a minimum 7% rise in the education budget, it would also cause the implosion of state education, because there would be nowhere to put these extra children coming in from the private sector. London and Bristol would be particularly hard hit.
It’s not that easy as you are fiddling with the entrails of charity law
I think it could be done. Although it would be interesting to see it drawn up in such a way as to leave universities untouched.
But the unintended consequences could easily make Venezuela look like a picnic.
I’d imagine you would define it as a trading activity (therefore liable for vat)
I wonder how long the Airmiles Andy story is going to distract the press for? The Mail are clearly loving this and I bet it is driving massive clicks to their website.
Wait until one of these new videos in a nightclub happens to find Corbyn pole dancing in the background.
Just for a bit of extra cash you understand.
Corbyn would not take the risk. Boris' might turn up and proposition him.
What are predictions in terms of the debate on Tuesday then?
It will be dull (Corbyn) and incoherent (Boris). It will also be so divorced from reality as to describe an alternate universe where up is down and black is white.
And we will all wonder how we deserve these two half-wits as choices for Leader
Took a while to catch on though I just thought that medicine and motor cycle maintenance was an odd comparison. In reality of course routine diagnosis of both will be solved by good AI the problem comes when we can’t make the next leap forward
Motorcycle maintenance is taught with Zen. Has been for years...
I wonder how long the Airmiles Andy story is going to distract the press for? The Mail are clearly loving this and I bet it is driving massive clicks to their website.
Forever, we all love the country's biggest welfare recipients Royals being bad.
I suspect, based on nothing, that the international clicks are worth even more - americans seem more obsessed by the royals that the British sometimes, even with the Andrew stuff linking in with the Epstein scandal.
In hindsight, it seems like every election (at least in recent times) has one overriding, usually not stated, theme that determines the results.
In 2005, it was that the people wanted to send Tony Blair a message they were becoming dissatisfied but to keep him in power = reduced majority;
In 2010, people didn't like Brown and were tired of Labour but didn't trust the Conservatives nor David Cameron enough to give them a majority = hung Parliament
In 2015, it was that David Cameron had done just enough to earn people's trust but - more importantly - they didn't see Ed Milliband as PM material = Tory majority
In 2017, it was that people didn't want Theresa May to have a majority given the more they saw (or didn't) of her, the more they distrusted her = hung Parliament.
What is the theme for this election? Brexit is the obvious one but, actually, I think the key theme running through this is "Do you want Corbyn as PM?" If that is right, then do not expect many LD gains in Tory surburbia (as Tory remainers fear for their wealth under a Corbyn government) and, more to the point, expect a Tory landslide as fear of Corbyn proves the motivating factor of this election.
I don't buy this collective motivation for voting such as "people didn't want Theresa May to have a majority given the more they saw (or didn't) of her, the more they distrusted her = hung Parliament"
In 2017, 32 million people voted all with individual reasons for how they voted.
The abolishing of private schools will be about removing tax exemptions and nothing else.
Changes in the tax structure would lead to the abolishing (sic) of the majority of private schools as matters stand. Admittedly changes in the pension regime are going a long way to doing that anyway.
So that would be a distinction without a difference.
Unless it is accompanied by a minimum 7% rise in the education budget, it would also cause the implosion of state education, because there would be nowhere to put these extra children coming in from the private sector. London and Bristol would be particularly hard hit.
It’s not that easy as you are fiddling with the entrails of charity law
I think it could be done. Although it would be interesting to see it drawn up in such a way as to leave universities untouched.
But the unintended consequences could easily make Venezuela look like a picnic.
I’d imagine you would define it as a trading activity (therefore liable for vat)
Education is VAT exempt (no right to recover), regardless of the status of the person doing it.
So I think the principal effect would be on a corporation tax level. Which would make them similar to certain higher education providers at the moment
The abolishing of private schools will be about removing tax exemptions and nothing else.
Changes in the tax structure would lead to the abolishing (sic) of the majority of private schools as matters stand. Admittedly changes in the pension regime are going a long way to doing that anyway.
So that would be a distinction without a difference.
Unless it is accompanied by a minimum 7% rise in the education budget, it would also cause the implosion of state education, because there would be nowhere to put these extra children coming in from the private sector. London and Bristol would be particularly hard hit.
It’s not that easy as you are fiddling with the entrails of charity law
I think it could be done. Although it would be interesting to see it drawn up in such a way as to leave universities untouched.
But the unintended consequences could easily make Venezuela look like a picnic.
I’d imagine you would define it as a trading activity (therefore liable for vat)
Education is VAT exempt (no right to recover), regardless of the status of the person doing it.
So I think the principal effect would be on a corporation tax level. Which would make them similar to certain higher education providers at the moment
Is that VAT exemption and EU rule or can it be changed by HMG if they so choose?
Big_G wins this year’s drama queen award, and if he ends up voting for Bozo we at least know that we can safely ignore his future hysteria.
You may disregard every one of my posts and class it hysteria if it makes you feel better
And my vote for Boris is my rejection of Corbyn, that is far more important to me than brexit
And please show me where I said I approve of no deal rather than pointing out it is a very real possibility post summer 2020
No-one can go from promising to resign the party if it elected Bozo as its leader to - only months later - rejoining that same party and actually voting for Bozo - and expect to be taken seriously. Sean is more steadfast and principled.
My resignation was a result of the 21 sacked conservatives. Most of those are now back in the fold so your attempt to guilt trip me is pathetic and I really do not care if you take me seriously
Since Boris's Deal will drive a border down the Irish Sea, I expect it will affect Holyhead. As I recall you used to get very worked up about Holyhead and the jobs there. I take it this is no longer a concern? Do you also think that Airbus will stay in N Wales under Boris's deal?
Airbus have already committed to North Wales. Not an issue, neither do I see Holyhead as an issue
In hindsight, it seems like every election (at least in recent times) has one overriding, usually not stated, theme that determines the results.
In 2005, it was that the people wanted to send Tony Blair a message they were becoming dissatisfied but to keep him in power = reduced majority;
In 2010, people didn't like Brown and were tired of Labour but didn't trust the Conservatives nor David Cameron enough to give them a majority = hung Parliament
In 2015, it was that David Cameron had done just enough to earn people's trust but - more importantly - they didn't see Ed Milliband as PM material = Tory majority
In 2017, it was that people didn't want Theresa May to have a majority given the more they saw (or didn't) of her, the more they distrusted her = hung Parliament.
What is the theme for this election? Brexit is the obvious one but, actually, I think the key theme running through this is "Do you want Corbyn as PM?" If that is right, then do not expect many LD gains in Tory surburbia (as Tory remainers fear for their wealth under a Corbyn government) and, more to the point, expect a Tory landslide as fear of Corbyn proves the motivating factor of this election.
I don't buy this collective motivation for voting such as "people didn't want Theresa May to have a majority given the more they saw (or didn't) of her, the more they distrusted her = hung Parliament"
In 2017, 32 million people voted all with individual reasons for how they voted.
Precisely. It makes no sense to treat 'the electorate' as if it has a single mind.
It sounds like someone who doesn't know what they're talking about, and is criticising the polls because they don't like what they're showing at present.
He's Bernie/Corbyn supporter but his model was very spon on in 2017? So I dont know.
Big_G wins this year’s drama queen award, and if he ends up voting for Bozo we at least know that we can safely ignore his future hysteria.
You may disregard every one of my posts and class it hysteria if it makes you feel better
And my vote for Boris is my rejection of Corbyn, that is far more important to me than brexit
And please show me where I said I approve of no deal rather than pointing out it is a very real possibility post summer 2020
No-one can go from promising to resign the party if it elected Bozo as its leader to - only months later - rejoining that same party and actually voting for Bozo - and expect to be taken seriously. Sean is more steadfast and principled.
My resignation was a result of the 21 sacked conservatives. Most of those are now back in the fold so your attempt to guilt trip me is pathetic and I really do not care if you take me seriously
Since Boris's Deal will drive a border down the Irish Sea, I expect it will affect Holyhead. As I recall you used to get very worked up about Holyhead and the jobs there. I take it this is no longer a concern? Do you also think that Airbus will stay in N Wales under Boris's deal?
Airbus have already committed to North Wales. Not an issue, neither do I see Holyhead as an issue
With respect Big_G you appear to have your fingers in your ears and be saying na-na-na-na-nah loudly to block out the reality of what a potential exit on WTO terms would mean.
In hindsight, it seems like every election (at least in recent times) has one overriding, usually not stated, theme that determines the results.
In 2005, it was that the people wanted to send Tony Blair a message they were becoming dissatisfied but to keep him in power = reduced majority;
In 2010, people didn't like Brown and were tired of Labour but didn't trust the Conservatives nor David Cameron enough to give them a majority = hung Parliament
In 2015, it was that David Cameron had done just enough to earn people's trust but - more importantly - they didn't see Ed Milliband as PM material = Tory majority
In 2017, it was that people didn't want Theresa May to have a majority given the more they saw (or didn't) of her, the more they distrusted her = hung Parliament.
What is the theme for this election? Brexit is the obvious one but, actually, I think the key theme running through this is "Do you want Corbyn as PM?" If that is right, then do not expect many LD gains in Tory surburbia (as Tory remainers fear for their wealth under a Corbyn government) and, more to the point, expect a Tory landslide as fear of Corbyn proves the motivating factor of this election.
I don't buy this collective motivation for voting such as "people didn't want Theresa May to have a majority given the more they saw (or didn't) of her, the more they distrusted her = hung Parliament"
In 2017, 32 million people voted all with individual reasons for how they voted.
Precisely. It makes no sense to treat 'the electorate' as if it has a single mind.
There is a reasonable middle ground between - "everyone thinks the same" and "everyone thinks differently".
I think it is reasonable to talk about a general feeling among a large enough number of people to affect the outcome - and I do feel that in 2017 there was a swing to Labour for the purpose of denying Theresa May a majority.
Big_G wins this year’s drama queen award, and if he ends up voting for Bozo we at least know that we can safely ignore his future hysteria.
You may disregard every one of my posts and class it hysteria if it makes you feel better
And my vote for Boris is my rejection of Corbyn, that is far more important to me than brexit
And please show me where I said I approve of no deal rather than pointing out it is a very real possibility post summer 2020
No-one can go from promising to resign the party if it elected Bozo as its leader to - only months later - rejoining that same party and actually voting for Bozo - and expect to be taken seriously. Sean is more steadfast and principled.
My resignation was a result of the 21 sacked conservatives. Most of those are now back in the fold so your attempt to guilt trip me is pathetic and I really do not care if you take me seriously
Since Boris's Deal will drive a border down the Irish Sea, I expect it will affect Holyhead. As I recall you used to get very worked up about Holyhead and the jobs there. I take it this is no longer a concern? Do you also think that Airbus will stay in N Wales under Boris's deal?
Airbus have already committed to North Wales. Not an issue, neither do I see Holyhead as an issue
With respect Big_G you appear to have your fingers in your ears and be saying na-na-na-na-nah loudly to block out the reality of what a potential exit on WTO terms would mean.
I am only saying no deal becomes more likely with a substantial majority and a stubborn EU. I do not want no deal but all conservative mps have signed the pledge to no deal if a deal is not agreed
Javid wants an extra tax on landowners ! Horrible Marxist ! Lol I await the furore from the right wing press ! Still waiting zzzzzzz
I really don't get your point here (nor the occasional what I fear are not brilliant parodies of anti-BBC conspiracists). Yes, right wing media will let things slide from a right wing person. Left wing media will too. Left wing and right wing being firm ideologies with clear water between them is absolute horseshit, and it's pretty obvious, I think, that if you provide an idea people may like or dislike it, but will take a very different view if told who it came from, and whether it is left wing or right wing.
You cannot seriously be surprised that partisan media does not get as outraged by things from its own side as it does the other.
Well that is a very interesting theory! I suspect you may be in a minority on this but I suggest you consider that until you understand the basics you can’t push back the boundary’s of science and without that we would be in a Johnson Greek classical dark age arguing if the earth was flat and if the sun moved round the earth.
Of course the Greeks calculated the Earth was in fact round.
Nobody believed the earth was flat. Nada. Zero. Zilch. Everyone knew it was spherical, if only from observation of the horizon. Aquinas based whole theories on this.
The flat earth myth was invented by Washington Irving in his biography of Columbus as an anti-Catholic polemic, and unfortunately the popular success of this work of mostly fiction means it has stuck.
Right, so probably more people now (claim) to believe the world is flat then at any time in at least thousands of years.
Thanks social media. Thanks a bunch.
Probably. The only flat earther I actually know of for definite before the twentieth century was Paul Kruger, President of the Boer Republics.
Apparently there was one Byzantine scholar of the sixth century, Cosmas Indicopleustes, who argued for a flat earth. So I was overly sweeping in my earlier statement that ‘nobody’ believed in it.
This blog is for articles, book reviews and critiques relating to “New Atheist Bad History” – the misuse of history and the use of biased, erroneous or distorted pseudo history by anti-theistic atheists. The author is an atheist himself so no, this is not some theist apologetics blog. It is simply an attempt to call out and correct the misuse of history, because rationalists should not base their arguments on errors and distortions
Comments
In terms of his past record - well judge for yourself
Anything else is wishful thinking.
With the likes of Banksy has endorsing Jezza, as he definitely isn't a racist.
And my vote for Boris is my rejection of Corbyn, that is far more important to me than brexit
And please show me where I said I approve of no deal rather than pointing out it is a very real possibility post summer 2020
I think the Remain vote will continue to harmonise around Labour, albeit very reluctantly. I think Labour will pledge to remove FOM in their deal but will make it clear that Remaining means it stays, which will be enough to get most Remainers on side.
I expect to see something of a Lib Dem surge in London but not much elsewhere, with their vote squeezed down further to around 10%.
I still think that Tory vote is too high - but the lead seems plausible at present.
Who ever advised him will never work in PR again. I mean it isn't like he is some nobody that people won't have 1000s of pictures of or from a time so far back in history that you had to stand still for 5 minutes to get your picture taken.
Wait until the YouGov MRP is published.
Did Randy Andy use the 2 for 1 one offer in Pizza Express or did he pay full price?
But, they have a lefty activist base who they thought would throw a strop. So they did nothing.
However, the fundamental point stands.
More detail here, for those interested:
https://historyforatheists.com/2016/06/the-great-myths-1-the-medieval-flat-earth/
** Drum roll **
Preliminary* Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) for week ending 17th November:
CON 41.3% (+3.3)
LAB 29.4% (+1.1)
LD 14.8% (-1.4)
BXP 6.3% (-2.8)
SNP 3.4% (-0.3)
GRN 3.1% (-0.3)
Oth 2.0% (+0.6)
CON lead 11.9% (+2.2)
Ten polls with field-work end-dates 11th to 17th Nov: Kantar, ICM, 2 x ComRes, 2 x YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Opinium and Deltapoll.
(* I say preliminary in case any other polls are late to the ELBOW party!)
For reference's sake, last Sunday's ELBOW was:
CON 38.0% (+/-)
LAB 28.3 (+2.4)
LD 16.2% (-0.5)
BXP 9.1% (-1.1)
SNP 3.7% (+/-)
GRN 3.4% (-0.1)
Oth 1.4% (-0.4)
Con lead 9.7% (-2.4)
And for week-ending 3rd November, my first ELBOW for the current campaign:
CON 38.0%
LAB 25.9%
LD 16.7%
BXP 10.2%
SNP 3.7%
GRN 3.5%
Oth 1.8%
Con lead 12.1%
My feeling with the Lib Dems is a lot of their support is very soft - and they're waiting for an excuse to go back to Labour again.
You can graph the decline in Labour in the polls almost exactly to the rise in Lib Dem vote.
Con 41%, Lab 29%, LD 15%, BRX 7%, Grn 3%.
https://www.ft.com/content/263615ca-d873-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17
Everyone is turning on the taps this time, or so the electorate will see it.
Just for a bit of extra cash you understand.
Yet for some reason don't give a list of all the spending cuts which would also be necessary
Lisnaskea: Girl, 13, stabbed 'protecting 11-month-old nephew'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50452248
What sort of sick bastard tries to machete a baby?
Apparently Ed turned up, got himself photoed holding a sandbag and then left.
The locals are now wearing 'Ed Miliband is a c**t' T-shirts.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/872797587413360640
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#YouGov_model
We'll need to wait until 3 December if they replicate those timescales, this time.
But the unintended consequences could easily make Venezuela look like a picnic.
It can actually put people off . There’s a line crossed when voters start laughing at your literature. I like the Lib Dems but the PM line needs to be dropped .
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Deltapoll-MoS191116.pdf
Good night.
Coat?
Shit banter!
The pizza didn't top itself either.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erdapfel#/media/File:MartinBehaim1492.png
What's the difference between Jeffrey Epstein's and Prince Andrew's pizza?
Prince Andrew's didn't top itself.....
I think that was the Livingstone/Boris debate model.
And we're hitting Xmas party season with lots of other stuff going on.
And we will all wonder how we deserve these two half-wits as choices for Leader
In 2017, 32 million people voted all with individual reasons for how they voted.
So I think the principal effect would be on a corporation tax level. Which would make them similar to certain higher education providers at the moment
Airbus have already committed to North Wales. Not an issue, neither do I see Holyhead as an issue
Precisely. It makes no sense to treat 'the electorate' as if it has a single mind.
UKIP only got 1.9% compared to 4.3% in the final polling average.
I think it is reasonable to talk about a general feeling among a large enough number of people to affect the outcome - and I do feel that in 2017 there was a swing to Labour for the purpose of denying Theresa May a majority.
With respect Big_G you appear to have your fingers in your ears and be saying na-na-na-na-nah loudly to block out the reality of what a potential exit on WTO terms would mean.
I am only saying no deal becomes more likely with a substantial majority and a stubborn EU. I do not want no deal but all conservative mps have signed the pledge to no deal if a deal is not agreed
You cannot seriously be surprised that partisan media does not get as outraged by things from its own side as it does the other.
This blog is for articles, book reviews and critiques relating to “New Atheist Bad History” – the misuse of history and the use of biased, erroneous or distorted pseudo history by anti-theistic atheists. The author is an atheist himself so no, this is not some theist apologetics blog. It is simply an attempt to call out and correct the misuse of history, because rationalists should not base their arguments on errors and distortions
Seems a neat enough idea.