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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson’s successor needs to be someone untainted by the coali

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    TOPPING said:

    speedy2 said:

    https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1205443466639089664
    They were so popular they all lost in one go.

    Chuka couldn't even win the seat with the most favourable demographics at the most favourable time.

    It's like those pictures of the Romanovs.
    Heidi Allen was particularly ungracious last night. Sadly unless I missed it I didn’t see an interview with Soubry.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980

    Good thing I laid in a hundredweight of snacks to see me through the Labour civil war.

    Strategic popcorn reserve status? :p
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited December 2019

    Police called and two arrested because of "a slap". Really?
    See, yeah, you could rationalise that, "it was only a little slap"? "Slap" not "punch" so that makes it okay right? At least, not a "police matter" or a "proper" crime? Plus it didn't cause any lasting physical harm? (If I slapped you or I punched you then legally that's the criminal offence of battery either way, FWIW)

    I get it, that there are people who could listen to that and think "well no need to blow it out of all proportion, it was only a slap, and she was only a woman less physically strong than her partner, and she was afraid" but it just sounds godawful. No politician could defend in that way, best they could do would be dead-bat it with "it was a private matter when I was younger, no further action was taken. and I condemn all domestic violence and will always stand with the victims" or whatever. But we all know, despite that, "it was 'just' a slap and there was no prosecution" would never get a male MP off the hook with the electorate, because it breaks a very clear taboo. Perhaps an illogical taboo bearing in mind just what rubbish the electorate seem prepared to tolerate regarding honesty, sexual fidelity, financial scruples and so on, but it's there.

    I suspect opponents wouldn't mention it to her face, but commentators and journalists would almost certainly weave it in to the narrative that arises around her, should she rise to the position of leader.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,731

    The 11 indie/chuk/ld/ind group guys can all join Rory Stewarts UK En Marche

    I wouldn`t rule that out
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,827
    Stocky said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Moran is even more annoying than Swinson. Have they got any normal people who are MPs? How many did they get btw? I backed 10-19 at 4/1 and 0-9 at 12s

    First you have the problem most people who want to become MPs are not normal, in good and bad ways, then add in that they are Liberal Democrats, which despite my voting for them is a pretty niche position to say the least.
    Well, being a liberal isn`t niche. 35% of the population, I`d estimate, are liberal. Far more than are collectivist. Yet the Labour Party dwarfs the LDs, punching way above its weight due to habits, family influence and union affiliation.

    My pipe dream for this GE was the annihilation of Labour and the emergence of the LDs as the challenger party to the Tories. Didn`t work out too well.
    My point wasn't that being liberal was niche, but that a lot of people suggest MPs only get into it for potential power and glory, and given how few there are compared to others even in good times, someone who has committed to the LDs surely has simple personal advancement as a lower priority.
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    The sorts of majorities the Tories have built up in those leave seats in the North look impenetrable for the next election, although I’m not putting much stock on that because it could easily be seen as a once off vote to get Brexit done.

    The Tories challenge now is to cement their place in those kinds of seats. It will be fascinating to see what they do. The whole majority is pretty much predicated on appealing to the WWC. We have gone full America.
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone prepared to call next year's US election for the incumbent?

    Good question.

    All the swing states from 2016 are again on average within 2% against the average of the top 3 Democrats (they all have similar numbers against Trump), except Pennsylvania. N.H and Minnessota. Where Trump is losing by an average of 5, 6 and 7.

    If Trump improves just 2% he wins again even against Biden.

    But the democrats are on course to get 50% of the popular vote, that is pretty stable since 2017, so I guess a loss for Trump of 47-51 in vote share even if he wins.
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    Swinson statement now.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    Andy_JS said:

    I was expecting the LDs to get at least 20% at this election, and possibly more if they had a good campaign. How did their campaign go so wrong? They even managed to lose Carshalton & Wallington for the first time since 1992.

    Carshalton and Wallington, like North Norfolk, is the kind of place normal European liberal parties do not do very well in. I think of Carshalton as being like Yardley in that the LD vote was urban, but a bit middle/coping and a bit white/embattled in a multicultural city. The long-term alignment has to be more to places like St Albans with well-off educated voters who respond better to less economic arguments.
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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Right. So when does this become like 2017 then?
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    Lots of wise words being posted on here today. Should be mandatory reading for any senior Lab/LD politicians working out how to rebuild their parties.
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    And on to the US presidential

    Will Trump be taking a look at the Johnson playbook?
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    Swanson losing the plot. Apparently Boris is responsible for who Tommy Robinson supports. Utter desperation trying to blame everyone except herself.
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    Election polling have put together a list of targets for 2024. For Lab they now need a 10% swing on UNS to get a majority of 2. That includes a lot of gains in Scotland. Without any Scottish gains it would be 13% swing required

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour#UKParliament
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,827
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    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone prepared to call next year's US election for the incumbent?

    Putin?
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    'Tainted' or not, Ed Davey is the libs most capable guy, it seems to me.

    I said the same thing... a year ago.
    Fair enough wise guy!
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    Slapgate is important because of Boris. If Layla is fair game then so is Boris. For this reason, CCHQ will not attack Layla on this. Trouble is, not all Boris's opponents work at CCHQ and they will want to bring it up twice before breakfast.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013

    Wasnt she arrested for domestic abuse?

    This is close to defamation without a conviction.
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    sorry if this has been posted before but is there a spreadsheet of all the results?
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    Some observations from last night
    The SDP have absolutely no cut through and are an irrelevance
    UKIP are now finished, I think they broke 1000 in one NE seat only
    The English Democrats and BNP are finished too
    The Yorkshire Party might become a minor player in any regional assembly

    The Conservative Party now incorporates the above parties.
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    I'm afraid I don't agree with this - though perhaps my view of the Coalition govt as the best of my lifetime that I can remember colours my view.

    The problem was not the LD membership of the coalition: it was the Lib Dems' attitude to their membership of it (which began when they were actually in it).

    The Lib Dems should be proud of their achievements in coalition - Ed Davey in particular can point to a lot of impressive achievements in the development of green energy this decade - rather than feeling guilty and defensive all the time.

    But to be honest, the coalition already feels a political lifetime ago and that sense can only increase over the next few years. Those who will blame the Lib Dems in 2024 for the decisions taken in 2010 are probably unwinnable whatever the party does.

    By contrast, this year's polls showed that 20% or more of the electorate are already willing to (re)consider the Yellows. That's a good, solid base.

    To my mind, what they need is someone who looks more grown-up and more sensible than either Johnson or whoever replaces Corbyn - which is to say, Ed Davey.

    Having said all this, what I think and what Lib Dem members think are two different things and 7/1 is value given the paucity of other options.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,939
    Swinson trying to stitch up the leadership for the sisterhood
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    Omnium said:

    HoC will be a slightly poorer place without Carolone Flint.

    I'm mourning the loss of Mel Onn. Total fox.
    You have the new 'baby of the house' Nicola Richards:
    https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-richards-who-is-the-uks-new-youngest-mp-11885291
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Jo Swinson proving that she's a metro liberal pro EU fanatic completely out of touch with the rest of us. It's not Boris Johnson that's the problem, Jo - it's YOU.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,638
    Another snippet from Look North:

    Bloke in Wakefield: Labour would have held this seat if they'd got Brexit sorted before the election.

    I think he's at least partly right. Remainers went shit or bust to stop Brexit when they should have accepted compromise. Then we would have still lost, but nothing like as badly.
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    NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    edited December 2019
    Lol. She's smashing glass ceilings!!! OMG, does she really not think that ceiling was smashed ages ago by Thatcher, Sturgeon, Davidson and May?
    Shes barely cracking a pane on the patio door.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Looks like Johnson will come 2nd on the all-time vote total, about 150k short of John Major. On % of the vote, highest since Heath in 1970 (46.4%).
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Might have been more of a runner if she hadn't decked her partner.

    Compared with Johnson's colourful history that is very minor.
    True. However, she has zero charisma to the point she is a personality vacuum. There's no way anyone is going to say, that Layla, she's a one and shrug it off. It's not fair, but it is a fact
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,939

    Omnium said:

    HoC will be a slightly poorer place without Carolone Flint.

    I'm mourning the loss of Mel Onn. Total fox.
    You have the new 'baby of the house' Nicola Richards:
    https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-richards-who-is-the-uks-new-youngest-mp-11885291
    True dat!
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,939
    Swinson 'I will be walking alongside you'
    Messiah complex
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Stocky said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Moran is even more annoying than Swinson. Have they got any normal people who are MPs? How many did they get btw? I backed 10-19 at 4/1 and 0-9 at 12s

    First you have the problem most people who want to become MPs are not normal, in good and bad ways, then add in that they are Liberal Democrats, which despite my voting for them is a pretty niche position to say the least.
    Well, being a liberal isn`t niche. 35% of the population, I`d estimate, are liberal. Far more than are collectivist. Yet the Labour Party dwarfs the LDs, punching way above its weight due to habits, family influence and union affiliation.

    My pipe dream for this GE was the annihilation of Labour and the emergence of the LDs as the challenger party to the Tories. Didn`t work out too well.
    Historically looking at election results Liberals comprise about 1/6th of the population.

    The other 5/6th are conservatives and socialists of various levels with some apolitical None of the Above types.
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    Jo Swinson reckons she smashed the glass ceiling by becoming the first female Liberal Democrat party leader. Leading to broken glass falling on her ...

    Really!!???

    We've had two female Prime Ministers, two devolved female First Ministers and many female party leaders before her. No glass was broken.
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,312

    Omnium said:

    HoC will be a slightly poorer place without Carolone Flint.

    I'm mourning the loss of Mel Onn. Total fox.
    You have the new 'baby of the house' Nicola Richards:
    https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-richards-who-is-the-uks-new-youngest-mp-11885291
    do we know who is the new father of the house?
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    And on to the US presidential

    Will Trump be taking a look at the Johnson playbook?

    If he does he wins.
    He only needs an extra 2%.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,038
    edited December 2019
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SLAB voters clearly going to the SNP in SNP-CON marginals.

    Well, just look at what Scots think of Boris: he is widely despised.
    So what, Catalans hated Rajoy
    Good afternoon Little Englanders! The above HY post is my take-away from UK GE 19. He and his daft buddies are about to bury the Union. Ta!
    Tories do not look like learning any lessons from the continued prominence of the SNP, believing ignoring the problem will be sufficient, and Labour do not look like learning any lessons at all. The LDs might, but have fewer options open to them anyway.
    The SNP are like a crocodile, if you give them too much they will come back for more and still eat you anyway.

    The best way to beat them is to take them on not try and appease them as Corbyn Labour tried to do and failed.

    Remember only 45% of Scots voted SNP, they are not invincible
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    Just listening to Swinson’s speech. Jeeepers creeepers, what a looong whine. (R5 just now)

    That speech would have been better if it’d been 1/10 th of the length. Sums up the Lib Dems: impotent, preaching blow-hards.

    She’s still not finished...
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    On constituency tips, may I point out that I tipped the Conservatives in Wimbledon, Keighley, Peterborough, Don Valley and Bridgend (and warned people off backing them in Hemsworth, Coventry North West and Newport East), suggested that the Lib Dems were far from a done deal in Cheltenham and advised selling them on the spreads (when their sell price was in the 40s).

    I'll not mention Westmorland & Lonsdale or Scotland generally if you don't.
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    Just listening to Swinson’s speech. Jeeepers creeepers, what a looong whine. (R5 just now)

    That speech would have been better if it’d been 1/10 th of the length. Sums up the Lib Dems: impotent, preaching blow-hards.

    She’s still not finished...

    Yes she is ... (!)
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,171
    The fishing question is iconic, even though it may not be "important" and the Cons will need to tread carefully for the sake of their seaside supporters. Like NI in the Withdrawal Agreement, it could prove to be an insurmountable point of disagreement for an FTA.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    saddened said:

    Might have been more of a runner if she hadn't decked her partner.

    Compared with Johnson's colourful history that is very minor.
    True. However, she has zero charisma to the point she is a personality vacuum.
    Wait. In a Lib Dem leadership contest between Moran and Davey, you’re claiming Moran is the one with zero charisma?

    It’s a view, I guess.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,827
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SLAB voters clearly going to the SNP in SNP-CON marginals.

    Well, just look at what Scots think of Boris: he is widely despised.
    So what, Catalans hated Rajoy
    Good afternoon Little Englanders! The above HY post is my take-away from UK GE 19. He and his daft buddies are about to bury the Union. Ta!
    Tories do not look like learning any lessons from the continued prominence of the SNP, believing ignoring the problem will be sufficient, and Labour do not look like learning any lessons at all. The LDs might, but have fewer options open to them anyway.
    The SNP are like a crocodile, if you give them too much they will come back for more and still eat you anyway.

    The best way to beat them is to take them on not try and appease them as Corbyn Labour tried to do and failed.

    Remember only 45% of Scots voted SNP, they are not invincible
    Indeed they are not, but will Boris 'take them on' in a way besides just saying no to a Sindyref?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,911

    Omnium said:

    HoC will be a slightly poorer place without Carolone Flint.

    I'm mourning the loss of Mel Onn. Total fox.
    You have the new 'baby of the house' Nicola Richards:
    https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-richards-who-is-the-uks-new-youngest-mp-11885291
    Well done to her!

    (That makes me feel old, she was born in 1995, could legally be my daughter and I'm only 42).
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    Just listening to Swinson’s speech. Jeeepers creeepers, what a looong whine. (R5 just now)

    That speech would have been better if it’d been 1/10 th of the length. Sums up the Lib Dems: impotent, preaching blow-hards.

    She’s still not finished...

    Yes she is ... (!)
    :D
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,473

    Andy_JS said:

    Is anyone prepared to call next year's US election for the incumbent?

    Putin?
    They should be so lucky.
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    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-47686844
    Wouldn't entirely surprise me given the poor judgement LDs have shown in leadership selection if they end up picking her for leader because she appeals to something in their downhearted activists, and the ONE THING that the general public will "know"/think about her is that she's "a hypocritical domestic abuser" (I think senior politicians get at most 3-5 THINGS that the public know about them, but if you're leader of the Lib Dems and they're on less-seats-than-you-can-count-on-fingers-and-toes, then you'll largely have to make do with the one) and it cocks up their next election as well.

    How many fingers and toes do you have?
    My thinking was, even if the Lib Dems pick up the odd by-election or defector during this parliament, they're still almost guaranteed to be sub-20 by the next election. Down on those kind of numbers, they simply don't get the same publicity, and the leader gets much less chance for cut-through than Ashdown or Clegg did. Plus they will lose out from not having the European elections , from which they benefit from the PR, in both senses of "PR. If you run with someone most people have never heard of and they don't get much airtime, there's a lot of downside risk to building up a public profile for her with "The Event" lingering in the background.
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    System said:


    imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson’s successor needs to be someone untainted by the coalition and that can only be Layla Moran

    The first post General Election next leader betting market has now opened and that is on, of course, who should succeed Jo Swinson as the next Lib Dem leader.

    Read the full story here


    I voted for nicola blackwood to get rid of the awful miserablist Evan Harris but Layla seemed very nice so was not unhappy when she took OxWAB back for the yellows but no way is she the leader they need to rebuild - also that pic would go down well in the university bit of the seat but does her no favours!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,038
    edited December 2019

    And on to the US presidential

    Will Trump be taking a look at the Johnson playbook?

    Yes, Boris copied some of the Trump playbook last night and Trump will return the favour especially against Warren or Sanders, who are more left than Hillary was, with Sanders close to Corbyn
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    Swinson losing the plot. Apparently Boris is responsible for who Tommy Robinson supports. Utter desperation trying to blame everyone except herself.

    That has got to be ranked as one of the Top Ten whines in world history.
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    EPG said:

    Wasnt she arrested for domestic abuse?

    This is close to defamation without a conviction.
    Ok, i will clarify, Layla Moran assaulted her partner and was arrested for domestic abuse and was then charged. The charges were subsequently dropped.

    (this is according to Layla Moran who released a statement confirming the facts above)
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,336
    geoffw said:

    The fishing question is iconic, even though it may not be "important" and the Cons will need to tread carefully for the sake of their seaside supporters. Like NI in the Withdrawal Agreement, it could prove to be an insurmountable point of disagreement for an FTA.

    More people work at Harrods than in the British fishing industry.
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    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SLAB voters clearly going to the SNP in SNP-CON marginals.

    Well, just look at what Scots think of Boris: he is widely despised.
    So what, Catalans hated Rajoy
    Good afternoon Little Englanders! The above HY post is my take-away from UK GE 19. He and his daft buddies are about to bury the Union. Ta!
    Tories do not look like learning any lessons from the continued prominence of the SNP, believing ignoring the problem will be sufficient, and Labour do not look like learning any lessons at all. The LDs might, but have fewer options open to them anyway.
    Personally, living in Edinburgh, I care deeply about the Union.

    I would say to Scottish, Welsh and NI voters that their regional governments have important roles to manage everyday life for their people. Those politicians who want independence now have a duty to their electorate to plan and implement means to change their regional economies to be dynamic and cope with losing the £2k p.a. subsidy per head they currently get from the UK government, replacing the pound and losing current UK government employment (tax offices, etc). The UK government will not allow independence referendums until regional governments can prove they will not be detrimental to the people.
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    Now the dust has settled a bit - bloody hell! Politics, eh?
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    Election polling have put together a list of targets for 2024. For Lab they now need a 10% swing on UNS to get a majority of 2. That includes a lot of gains in Scotland. Without any Scottish gains it would be 13% swing required

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour#UKParliament

    You have to look close to see which Labour MP can appeal to Northern Working Class voters and the London membership and to be hard on the SNP.

    Labour need that hat trick.
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    Jeremy Corbyn... lacking leadership to the end.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,038
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SLAB voters clearly going to the SNP in SNP-CON marginals.

    Well, just look at what Scots think of Boris: he is widely despised.
    So what, Catalans hated Rajoy
    Good afternoon Little Englanders! The above HY post is my take-away from UK GE 19. He and his daft buddies are about to bury the Union. Ta!
    Tories do not look like learning any lessons from the continued prominence of the SNP, believing ignoring the problem will be sufficient, and Labour do not look like learning any lessons at all. The LDs might, but have fewer options open to them anyway.
    The SNP are like a crocodile, if you give them too much they will come back for more and still eat you anyway.

    The best way to beat them is to take them on not try and appease them as Corbyn Labour tried to do and failed.

    Remember only 45% of Scots voted SNP, they are not invincible
    Indeed they are not, but will Boris 'take them on' in a way besides just saying no to a Sindyref?
    That is all he needs to do, otherwise he will leave it to Unionist parties at Holyrood 2021 which has PR unlike last night
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,731
    speedy2 said:

    Stocky said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Moran is even more annoying than Swinson. Have they got any normal people who are MPs? How many did they get btw? I backed 10-19 at 4/1 and 0-9 at 12s

    First you have the problem most people who want to become MPs are not normal, in good and bad ways, then add in that they are Liberal Democrats, which despite my voting for them is a pretty niche position to say the least.
    Well, being a liberal isn`t niche. 35% of the population, I`d estimate, are liberal. Far more than are collectivist. Yet the Labour Party dwarfs the LDs, punching way above its weight due to habits, family influence and union affiliation.

    My pipe dream for this GE was the annihilation of Labour and the emergence of the LDs as the challenger party to the Tories. Didn`t work out too well.
    Historically looking at election results Liberals comprise about 1/6th of the population.

    The other 5/6th are conservatives and socialists of various levels with some apolitical None of the Above types.
    I think you mean 1/6 of the population have voted liberal. I`m not disputing that. I`m talking about the proportion of people who are ideologically liberal - many of whom vote for the labour party, even though it is not a liberal party.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Was Kirsteen Hair the one who didn't vote in EuRef because it was too hard?
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    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-47686844
    Wouldn't entirely surprise me given the poor judgement LDs have shown in leadership selection if they end up picking her for leader because she appeals to something in their downhearted activists, and the ONE THING that the general public will "know"/think about her is that she's "a hypocritical domestic abuser" (I think senior politicians get at most 3-5 THINGS that the public know about them, but if you're leader of the Lib Dems and they're on less-seats-than-you-can-count-on-fingers-and-toes, then you'll largely have to make do with the one) and it cocks up their next election as well.

    How many fingers and toes do you have?
    My thinking was, even if the Lib Dems pick up the odd by-election or defector during this parliament, they're still almost guaranteed to be sub-20 by the next election. Down on those kind of numbers, they simply don't get the same publicity, and the leader gets much less chance for cut-through than Ashdown or Clegg did. Plus they will lose out from not having the European elections , from which they benefit from the PR, in both senses of "PR. If you run with someone most people have never heard of and they don't get much airtime, there's a lot of downside risk to building up a public profile for her with "The Event" lingering in the background.
    I guess it depends on what Boris does. He's not that popular now and could rapidly become toxic if Trump treats him the same way he has treated his other friends and if the FTA with the EU leaves us a lot worse off.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,171
    Forty years ago after Margaret Thatcher won in 1979 I felt like walking on air, just as I do now.
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    Jo Swinson reckons she smashed the glass ceiling by becoming the first female Liberal Democrat party leader. Leading to broken glass falling on her ...

    Really!!???

    We've had two female Prime Ministers, two devolved female First Ministers and many female party leaders before her. No glass was broken.

    To quote my mum (an LD, who did not vote LD this time) 'She wants to be Nicola Sturgeon, but doesn't have the ability'.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,911
    TOPPING said:

    geoffw said:

    The fishing question is iconic, even though it may not be "important" and the Cons will need to tread carefully for the sake of their seaside supporters. Like NI in the Withdrawal Agreement, it could prove to be an insurmountable point of disagreement for an FTA.

    More people work at Harrods than in the British fishing industry.
    Isn't that the problem? The same amount of fishing is happening, except that it's now EU boats making the money.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,473
    TOPPING said:

    geoffw said:

    The fishing question is iconic, even though it may not be "important" and the Cons will need to tread carefully for the sake of their seaside supporters. Like NI in the Withdrawal Agreement, it could prove to be an insurmountable point of disagreement for an FTA.

    More people work at Harrods than in the British fishing industry.
    Today.
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    If you haven't seen it yet (and it may have been posted on here over the last 12 hours, apologies) it's well worth it: https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1205249029887709184
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    Alistair said:

    Was Kirsteen Hair the one who didn't vote in EuRef because it was too hard?

    That's the one.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,171
    TOPPING said:

    geoffw said:

    The fishing question is iconic, even though it may not be "important" and the Cons will need to tread carefully for the sake of their seaside supporters. Like NI in the Withdrawal Agreement, it could prove to be an insurmountable point of disagreement for an FTA.

    More people work at Harrods than in the British fishing industry.
    Indeed. It is not numerically "important".

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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    "Untainted"?

    The Coalition has been the best government we've had in a decade (or more) - and well, what's next - who knows?

    2010 Lib Dem voters disagree with you. Very strongly.

    It turns out Charles Kennedy's coalition was not in favour of doing a deal with the Tories.
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    StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SLAB voters clearly going to the SNP in SNP-CON marginals.

    Well, just look at what Scots think of Boris: he is widely despised.
    So what, Catalans hated Rajoy
    Good afternoon Little Englanders! The above HY post is my take-away from UK GE 19. He and his daft buddies are about to bury the Union. Ta!
    Tories do not look like learning any lessons from the continued prominence of the SNP, believing ignoring the problem will be sufficient, and Labour do not look like learning any lessons at all. The LDs might, but have fewer options open to them anyway.
    The SNP are like a crocodile, if you give them too much they will come back for more and still eat you anyway.

    The best way to beat them is to take them on not try and appease them as Corbyn Labour tried to do and failed.

    Remember only 45% of Scots voted SNP, they are not invincible
    Same vote share as the Tories.
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    If you haven't seen it yet (and it may have been posted on here over the last 12 hours, apologies) it's well worth it: https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1205249029887709184

    Sorry - I hadn't meant this to look quite so clickbaity.

    It's from a Labour die hard which starts "Fuck off, Jeremy Corbyn, you hopeless old tatterdemalion, and take your useless fucking coterie with you..."
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    I was listening to Menzies Campbell on the BBC in the middle of the night. Pretty much the definition of an elder statesman. The Lib Dems have nobody even remotely of that character now. C’mon chaps: a little humility, graciousness, humour and detached perspective goes a long way!
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,731

    If you haven't seen it yet (and it may have been posted on here over the last 12 hours, apologies) it's well worth it: https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1205249029887709184

    Tatterdemalion is an actual word. I looked it up.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,723
    I was just thinking back to 1997 when Tony Blair was first elected, and the interesting thing about that time is how you felt included in the zeitgeist even if you hadn't supported Labour at that election. Labour need to get back to that. Corbyn had the opposite effect.
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    When Jo Swinson was born the Prime Minister was Margaret Thatcher. Swinson not only didn't smash any glass ceiling, she was not even born yet when it was smashed!

    Conceited jumped up silly person. This sort of conceited behaviour is why you lost FFS!
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    Burgon drowning on BBC1.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,911

    If you haven't seen it yet (and it may have been posted on here over the last 12 hours, apologies) it's well worth it: https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1205249029887709184

    That's a great rant!
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    camelcamel Posts: 815

    On constituency tips, may I point out that I tipped the Conservatives in Wimbledon, Keighley, Peterborough, Don Valley and Bridgend (and warned people off backing them in Hemsworth, Coventry North West and Newport East), suggested that the Lib Dems were far from a done deal in Cheltenham and advised selling them on the spreads (when their sell price was in the 40s).

    I'll not mention Westmorland & Lonsdale or Scotland generally if you don't.

    Hats off to you Alastair - I took your advice on Cheltenham.
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    funkhauserfunkhauser Posts: 325
    edited December 2019
    Last time around the Lib Dems seemed fixated with having a female leader & ended up with a very inexperienced leader that made a massive policy blunder with revoke & a personality / image that went down like a lead balloon with voters .

    Now the fixation it seems is to select someone not associated with the coalition,which will be 15 years ago by the time of the next election.

    In the meantime you have Ed Davey ,cabinet minister in the coalition who did have some achievements ,has experience & what was so clearly lacking in the past two Lib Dem leaders gravitas.

    Moran is Swinson mark 2.
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    Burgon drowning on BBC1.

    It's Hilarious.
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    speedy2 said:

    Election polling have put together a list of targets for 2024. For Lab they now need a 10% swing on UNS to get a majority of 2. That includes a lot of gains in Scotland. Without any Scottish gains it would be 13% swing required

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour#UKParliament

    You have to look close to see which Labour MP can appeal to Northern Working Class voters and the London membership and to be hard on the SNP.

    Labour need that hat trick.
    - “... to be hard on the SNP.“!?!

    I see that you misunderstand the lessons of UK GE 19.

    SLab need to do exactly the opposite. They need to be thoroughly, completely and convincingly, 100% pro-Scotland.

    Otherwise they’re fucked for good.
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    camelcamel Posts: 815
    edited December 2019

    Burgon drowning on BBC1.

    It's Hilarious.
    Is he following the Corbyn line of blaming the MSM? Actually, if it's Burgon he'll be blaming the stupid electorate.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,709
    edited December 2019
    camel said:

    Burgon drowning on BBC1.

    It's Hilarious.
    Is he following the Corbyn line of blaming the MSM?
    putting in all on 'Brexit election', as if that was a surprise.
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    Alistair said:

    Was Kirsteen Hair the one who didn't vote in EuRef because it was too hard?

    Yes!!! :D:D:D

    A diddy of the first order! :D
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,638

    Jo Swinson reckons she smashed the glass ceiling by becoming the first female Liberal Democrat party leader. Leading to broken glass falling on her ...

    Really!!???

    We've had two female Prime Ministers, two devolved female First Ministers and many female party leaders before her. No glass was broken.

    To quote my mum (an LD, who did not vote LD this time) 'She wants to be Nicola Sturgeon, but doesn't have the ability'.
    I think she wanted to be a real life Birgitte Nyborg. But she's not.
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Richard Burgon is deranged. There is simply no other word to describe him. Gives him a great shot at the Labour leadership.
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    saddened said:

    Might have been more of a runner if she hadn't decked her partner.

    Compared with Johnson's colourful history that is very minor.
    True. However, she has zero charisma to the point she is a personality vacuum.
    Wait. In a Lib Dem leadership contest between Moran and Davey, you’re claiming Moran is the one with zero charisma?

    It’s a view, I guess.
    Nice snipping. Where did I make a comparison with Davey?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,473

    speedy2 said:

    Election polling have put together a list of targets for 2024. For Lab they now need a 10% swing on UNS to get a majority of 2. That includes a lot of gains in Scotland. Without any Scottish gains it would be 13% swing required

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour#UKParliament

    You have to look close to see which Labour MP can appeal to Northern Working Class voters and the London membership and to be hard on the SNP.

    Labour need that hat trick.
    - “... to be hard on the SNP.“!?!

    I see that you misunderstand the lessons of UK GE 19.

    SLab need to do exactly the opposite. They need to be thoroughly, completely and convincingly, 100% pro-Scotland.

    Otherwise they’re fucked for good.
    There is room for a 'Scotland' party that doesn't support independence. But I don't think it will come from the left.
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    On constituency tips, may I point out that I tipped the Conservatives in Wimbledon, Keighley, Peterborough, Don Valley and Bridgend (and warned people off backing them in Hemsworth, Coventry North West and Newport East), suggested that the Lib Dems were far from a done deal in Cheltenham and advised selling them on the spreads (when their sell price was in the 40s).

    I'll not mention Westmorland & Lonsdale or Scotland generally if you don't.

    Bloody lawyers.
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    FF43 said:

    Layla Moran is that rare breed of politician that does human, like Charlie Kennedy before her. Lib Dems could do worse at this point, and probably would given their very limited MP gene pool

    Corbyn was very good at 'doing human'.
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    Jason said:

    Richard Burgon is deranged. There is simply no other word to describe him. Gives him a great shot at the Labour leadership.

    There's also 'thick'.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited December 2019
    Jason said:

    Richard Burgon is deranged. There is simply no other word to describe him. Gives him a great shot at the Labour leadership.

    The calibre of MP on show in the past 24 hours - particularly from Labour - is absolutely frightening.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,134
    EPG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I was expecting the LDs to get at least 20% at this election, and possibly more if they had a good campaign. How did their campaign go so wrong? They even managed to lose Carshalton & Wallington for the first time since 1992.

    Carshalton and Wallington, like North Norfolk, is the kind of place normal European liberal parties do not do very well in. I think of Carshalton as being like Yardley in that the LD vote was urban, but a bit middle/coping and a bit white/embattled in a multicultural city. The long-term alignment has to be more to places like St Albans with well-off educated voters who respond better to less economic arguments.
    Carshalton and Wallington has quite a large traditional Labour vote, which used to be an asset for the Lib Dems, but now I would presume is very much not an asset.
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    speedy2 said:

    Election polling have put together a list of targets for 2024. For Lab they now need a 10% swing on UNS to get a majority of 2. That includes a lot of gains in Scotland. Without any Scottish gains it would be 13% swing required

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour#UKParliament

    You have to look close to see which Labour MP can appeal to Northern Working Class voters and the London membership and to be hard on the SNP.

    Labour need that hat trick.
    - “... to be hard on the SNP.“!?!

    I see that you misunderstand the lessons of UK GE 19.

    SLab need to do exactly the opposite. They need to be thoroughly, completely and convincingly, 100% pro-Scotland.

    Otherwise they’re fucked for good.
    There is room for a 'Scotland' party that doesn't support independence. But I don't think it will come from the left.
    It is impossible to be pro-Scotland while genuflecting before The Clown.
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    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-47686844
    Wouldn't entirely surprise me given the poor judgement LDs have shown in leadership selection if they end up picking her for leader because she appeals to something in their downhearted activists, and the ONE THING that the general public will "know"/think about her is that she's "a hypocritical domestic abuser" (I think senior politicians get at most 3-5 THINGS that the public know about them, but if you're leader of the Lib Dems and they're on less-seats-than-you-can-count-on-fingers-and-toes, then you'll largely have to make do with the one) and it cocks up their next election as well.

    How many fingers and toes do you have?
    My thinking was, even if the Lib Dems pick up the odd by-election or defector during this parliament, they're still almost guaranteed to be sub-20 by the next election. Down on those kind of numbers, they simply don't get the same publicity, and the leader gets much less chance for cut-through than Ashdown or Clegg did. Plus they will lose out from not having the European elections , from which they benefit from the PR, in both senses of "PR. If you run with someone most people have never heard of and they don't get much airtime, there's a lot of downside risk to building up a public profile for her with "The Event" lingering in the background.
    I guess it depends on what Boris does. He's not that popular now and could rapidly become toxic if Trump treats him the same way he has treated his other friends and if the FTA with the EU leaves us a lot worse off.
    If I were thinking from a LD PoV, then in the event of that happening a lot of the attention is going to shift to whoever's running Labour and what their potential answers are. Even if you have a brilliant leader, getting screentime and a slice of the public's political attention - which outside election time is small indeed - is just very tricky when you have very few MPs (plus not having the European Elections any more where you got a chance to show off your Europhile credentials and mass support when the minority of voters who turn up for that kind of thing are liberated from the shackles of FPTP). You could do with a really big name who could draw that attention in, but you don't really have one. Anyone you appoint you're going to have to build up their public profile largely from scratch (what's even Ed Davey's public name recognition like do you think?) and you're only going to get one chance to make a first impression. Doing that with Moran carries an extraordinary and unnecessary downside risk. I can see the Lib Dems going for it and it blowing up in their faces.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,000
    edited December 2019
    Jason said:
    Up to you - I know what I will and am happily drive (with a smile every time
    I hit the accelerator) until I swap to electric...
This discussion has been closed.