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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First results from Iowa have Buttgieg in the lead

SystemSystem Posts: 11,684
edited February 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First results from Iowa have Buttgieg in the lead

This appears to be based on the proportion of delegates that were elected. These are provisional and there are others results still to come

Read the full story here


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  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454
    edited February 2020
    First like Mayor Pete.

    Told you all to lay the old dudes in this race.

    I am Nostradamus reincarnated.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    edited February 2020
    Buttigieg narrowly ahead of Sanders on state delegates so far, note not the same as the percentage of the vote https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1224816239803092992?s=20
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,599
    CNN have the map - Pete's support very broad, right across the state. He's played an absolute blinder here.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454
    edited February 2020
    Not that I'm getting ahead of myself but I'm trying to work out the odds of Liverpool achieving the following this season

    1) Completing the PL, CL, and FA Cup, treble
    2) Getting over 100 points
    3) Going unbeaten in the PL

    If all three happen then I will be positively unbearable*.

    *More so than usual.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First like Mayor Pete.

    Told you all to lay the old dudes in this race.

    I am Nostradamus reincarnated.

    Doesn't that make you a very old dude?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1224817488833196032?s=20
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20
  • Options
    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    We don't know who won.
    Because we don't know where that 38% remaining is from.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    HYUFD said:

    Buttigieg narrowly ahead of Sanders on state delegates, note not the same as the percentage of the vote https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1224816239803092992?s=20

    Worth remembering that this means that Sanders needs to be six percentage points ahead in the remaining 39% to win.

    That's possible. But difficult.
  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Klobuchar seems to have done pretty well, also. Her and Pete seems like a good ticket, although it would make more sense with her leading it.
  • Options
    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited February 2020
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Second alignment.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    WaPo seems to think it's final alignment.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/iowa/
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2020
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point [Edit: But wrong!]

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,239
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point [Edit: But wrong!]

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    Yes, thanks everyone.

    Warren doing a little better than expected, then compared to last night.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    This surely puts Biden in the last chance saloon, and possibly out the door altogether. If he isn’t a winner what’s the point? He has absolutely nothing else to offer.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,650
    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Made almost as much money in the ten seconds between CNN updating their website API and their coverage as the whole of last night and beforehand...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2020
    MSNBC banging on about all the connections between Mayor Pete campaign and the app developer. Awks.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    South Carolina is his target, because it tests his support with African-Americans
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Uhhh
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,239
    https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MSNBC banging on about all the connections between Mayor Pete campaign and the app developer. Awks.

    Surely he'd have wanted this headline yesterday!!
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    So have the Dems retrieved the mess of last night - or compounded it?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,239
    Trump's troops making their move?

    https://twitter.com/davestwittylife/status/1224819556612374528
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,650
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MSNBC banging on about all the connections between Mayor Pete campaign and the app developer. Awks.

    Knowing how to fix elections?

    Dems need that man...
  • Options
    Kevin_McCandlessKevin_McCandless Posts: 392
    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Sanders will win New Hampshire. Has a good shot at Nevada on the 22nd. If he doesn't do badly in South Carolina on the 29th, that sets him up well for the big day on 3 March.
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Buttigieg narrowly ahead of Sanders on state delegates, note not the same as the percentage of the vote https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1224816239803092992?s=20

    Worth remembering that this means that Sanders needs to be six percentage points ahead in the remaining 39% to win.

    That's possible. But difficult.
    I make it less than that. There are 760 SDEs left up for grabs, Sanders trails by 25. That's 3.3%.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1224820739750158336?s=20
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,239
    And when do when get the other 30%?
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Backed Pete earlier today in Iowa. Now laid it off for a profit.

    Pete was being way, way, way, waaaay too confident for someone who didn't have a chance and 3.1 was a great price.
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Foxy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MSNBC banging on about all the connections between Mayor Pete campaign and the app developer. Awks.

    Knowing how to fix elections?

    Dems need that man...
    Apparently not. He obviously should have spent more time chatting to his friend from the Office of Transition Initiatives.
  • Options
    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

    I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

    I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,650
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
    Stake your money as you choose.

    Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1224820739750158336?s=20

    seanT has reinvented himself again......
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    My Girl The Big Liz still in this thing.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Hardly, Sanders has just won the popular vote in Iowa and is ahead in New Hampshire and was closing in on Biden in SC with Buttigieg under 10%

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1224731934510714881?s=20
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1223957648107851777?s=20
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Amy Klobuchar hasn't done too badly on these results: 12.6% of delegates is pretty respectable when the three leaders are on 18% to 27%. Enough to stay in the race? Maybe, if Joe decides this isn't going anywhere for him.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,239
    speedy2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

    I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

    I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.
    NPR has SDEs. That is the state delegates isn't it? It's all a bit confusing after a couple of glasses of wine.
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    speedy2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

    I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

    I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.
    This partial result is going to dominate the news cycle and potentially influence subsequent primaries, too.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    speedy2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

    I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

    I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.
    And that's why I locked in the profit on Mayor Pete.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,650
    edited February 2020
    speedy2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

    I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

    I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.
    I have greened out. Sanders was far too short earlier today.

    I am not at all convinced by these state polls.
  • Options
    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Alistair said:

    Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

    Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
    It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454
    So I best get learning how to properly pronounce Buttigieg.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
    Stake your money as you choose.

    Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
    Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
  • Options
    Kevin_McCandlessKevin_McCandless Posts: 392
    Klobuchar running for Veep nomination at this point. And is strongly ahead.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    This surely puts Biden in the last chance saloon, and possibly out the door altogether. If he isn’t a winner what’s the point? He has absolutely nothing else to offer.

    He drops of very precipitously very fast. I've seen some focus group results that suggest he is strong with African Americans because they believe in his electabilty more than anything else and his strength with African Americans adds to his aura of electibilty to other groups.

    One crack and that all goes. He could be ceasing campaigning within days.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,239
    Alistair said:

    speedy2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

    I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

    I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.
    And that's why I locked in the profit on Mayor Pete.
    Likewise.

    Not a bad evening's work. Friday curry paid for.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
    Stake your money as you choose.

    Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
    Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
    He won't mind the race becoming Bernie v Pete too much. Warren did a little too well in Iowa though for his liking
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Kevin_McCandless said:

    Klobuchar running for Veep nomination at this point. And is strongly ahead.

    Sanders-Klobuchar would be a very strong ticket, has both wings of the party.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,650
    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
    Stake your money as you choose.

    Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
    Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
    Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.
  • Options
    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Stereotomy said:

    speedy2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

    I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

    I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.
    This partial result is going to dominate the news cycle and potentially influence subsequent primaries, too.
    But it's a giant mess, so any result will be diminished in importance because no one will believe that they are accurate.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Pulpstar said:

    Kevin_McCandless said:

    Klobuchar running for Veep nomination at this point. And is strongly ahead.

    Sanders-Klobuchar would be a very strong ticket, has both wings of the party.
    Klobuchar too much of an opponent off healthcare reform, I think
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,239
    Buttigieg had his field ops in places no one had ever heard of iirc.

    Looks like the rural votes have come in, judging by the maps. But I'm no expert on Iowa countryside.
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    speedy2 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    speedy2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

    I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

    I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.
    This partial result is going to dominate the news cycle and potentially influence subsequent primaries, too.
    But it's a giant mess, so any result will be diminished in importance because no one will believe that they are accurate.
    Yes, which also damages the actual winner, compared to the results just coming out as they were supposed to.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,239
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Kevin_McCandless said:

    Klobuchar running for Veep nomination at this point. And is strongly ahead.

    Sanders-Klobuchar would be a very strong ticket, has both wings of the party.
    Klobuchar too much of an opponent off healthcare reform, I think
    Sanders-Klobuchar is a losing ticket. Why would someone who might win saddle herself to a loser?
  • Options
    TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,043
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Not that I'm getting ahead of myself but I'm trying to work out the odds of Liverpool achieving the following this season

    1) Completing the PL, CL, and FA Cup, treble
    2) Getting over 100 points
    3) Going unbeaten in the PL

    If all three happen then I will be positively unbearable*.

    *More so than usual.

    2 & 3 , I fancy them.

    1, not so much.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,239
    Foxy said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
    Stake your money as you choose.

    Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
    Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
    Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.
    Momentum is what matters in first two states.
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1224823832659333120
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,617
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So I best get learning how to properly pronounce Buttigieg.

    Just say " Buttplug" in a confident way, and see how many people follow you in...
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,239
    BF - sanders 3; Buttigieg 1.4
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
    Stake your money as you choose.

    Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
    Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
    If Biden's collapse continues, and if Bernie does end up winning the first three states, South Carolina will be an interesting one.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
    Stake your money as you choose.

    Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
    Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
    He won't mind the race becoming Bernie v Pete too much. Warren did a little too well in Iowa though for his liking
    That is Sanders problem. The ideal result for him would be Sanders-Buttigieg-Biden as it would keep two moderates in the race, and drop Warren out.

    But Buttigieg-Sanders-Warren is harder because there is the risk that Biden (who has no money) ends up dropping out. In which case you have one moderate (Buttigieg) and two left wingers.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Foxy said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
    Stake your money as you choose.

    Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
    Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
    Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.
    I agree on the sentiment- but Bernie stands a better chance of winning if he comes through on the sidelines rather than a frontman...
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,239
    Anyone know when we get the result of the results? Not worth staying up much longer.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So I best get learning how to properly pronounce Buttigieg.

    Or just keep him as Booty-gig.

    "It's the Booty-gig economy, stupid....."
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,239
    edited February 2020
    MikeSmithson said:

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1224823832659333120

    Looks like you called 'too old' Biden right Mike. But bigger states to come.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    Stereotomy said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
    Stake your money as you choose.

    Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
    Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
    If Biden's collapse continues, and if Bernie does end up winning the first three states, South Carolina will be an interesting one.
    Bernie won't win Iowa.

    There are too many precincts in Buttigieg friendly rural districts.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Now would be a terrible time to go over the message archives and pick out what people were saying about who was 100% definetly
    guaranteed to win (or not win) the nomination.

    I think I have a bad Sanders prediction in there.
  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    speedy2 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    speedy2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

    I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

    I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.
    This partial result is going to dominate the news cycle and potentially influence subsequent primaries, too.
    But it's a giant mess, so any result will be diminished in importance because no one will believe that they are accurate.
    Don't agree. The winner (or winner presumptive) is going to be constantly in the news between now and New Hampshire next Tuesday. And Pete is already drawing fire from Trump, which makes him look even better. This might be even better for Pete than if they'd just announced him the winner last night and then moved on.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    speedy2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

    Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
    It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
    Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    Foxy said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
    Stake your money as you choose.

    Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
    Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
    Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.
    Not necessarily
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1224463798054129664?s=20
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1223311559625019392?s=20
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

    Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
    It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
    Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City
    “Minorities hare him” is not exactly a factual statement...
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

    Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
    It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
    Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City
    Yep, and his record in that role is one big reason they hate him.
  • Options
    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,650
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Kevin_McCandless said:

    Klobuchar running for Veep nomination at this point. And is strongly ahead.

    Sanders-Klobuchar would be a very strong ticket, has both wings of the party.
    Klobuchar too much of an opponent off healthcare reform, I think
    Though very active on drug pricing, particularly insulin and related items. Amy is more of a gradualist on health care, I can see that playing well in Middle America.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    rcs1000 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
    Stake your money as you choose.

    Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
    Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
    He won't mind the race becoming Bernie v Pete too much. Warren did a little too well in Iowa though for his liking
    That is Sanders problem. The ideal result for him would be Sanders-Buttigieg-Biden as it would keep two moderates in the race, and drop Warren out.

    But Buttigieg-Sanders-Warren is harder because there is the risk that Biden (who has no money) ends up dropping out. In which case you have one moderate (Buttigieg) and two left wingers.
    Biden will likely win South Carolina regardless and stay in the race
  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

    Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
    It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
    Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City
    Exactly. The AA vote loves Biden because Obama. That feeling won't survive contact with reality going into South Carolina, unless Biden improves drastically in the next few contests. So their votes are all up for grabs.
  • Options
    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited February 2020
    Labour CLPs nominations at the end of the night...deadline is Feb 14th

    https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/1224822439835664385?s=20

    Thornberry picked Brentwood & Ongar and Vale of Glamorgan tonight.

    She needs 33 CLPs
  • Options
    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited February 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

    Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
    It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
    Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City
    That's why he gets 0% of African Am.
    His record is a lead weight.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,650
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
    Stake your money as you choose.

    Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
    Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
    Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.
    Not necessarily
    //twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1224463798054129664?s=20
    ://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1223311559625019392?s=20
    Bless! After believing the polls in Iowa...
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Not that I'm getting ahead of myself but I'm trying to work out the odds of Liverpool achieving the following this season

    1) Completing the PL, CL, and FA Cup, treble
    2) Getting over 100 points
    3) Going unbeaten in the PL

    If all three happen then I will be positively unbearable*.

    *More so than usual.

    It's a fair Kop...
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,239
    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Thanks. Probably not Pete country?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
    Stake your money as you choose.

    Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
    Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
    Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.
    Not necessarily
    //twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1224463798054129664?s=20
    ://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1223311559625019392?s=20
    Bless! After believing the polls in Iowa...
    Next week’s polling will be more interesting, after this result has had a couple of days of media exposure.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    David Cameron's bodyguard sparks panic on BA flight from London to New York when passenger finds loaded Glock pistol he accidentally left in toilets of jet

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7966945/David-Camerons-bodyguard-leaves-gun-jet-toilet.html
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

    Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
    It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
    Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City
    South Bend is majority African American?
  • Options
    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited February 2020
    Situation in the Deputy race

    https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/1224823709678161923?s=20

    Murray nominated by Perthshire South and Kinross and Glasgow Pollock tonight. There should be enough Scottish CLPs left for him to reach 33

    Allin-Khan got 4 CLPs tonight: Brentwood and Ongar, North Wiltshire, Wimbledon, Vale of Glamorgan
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Watching CNN this evening, seems like Mayor Pete is their favourite candidate. Bigging him up while barely mentioning Sanders or Warren.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,239
    edited February 2020
    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Yet Sanders is only just ahead in Polk County. (ie, Des Moine)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Buttigieg is only two points behind Bernie in Des Moines. If that were true for all the remaining precincts (and there are a lot of rural precincts still to come), Buttigieg would still will by a percent.

    People betting on Sanders here are idiots. The real odds should be 10 or 12 to 1.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,650
    Stereotomy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

    Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
    It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
    Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City
    Yep, and his record in that role is one big reason they hate him.
    In 2015 he got 80% of the vote in South Bend. Presumably at least some of the other 20% were Republicans...
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,239
    Looks like Sanders did best in Sioux City
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Oooofffff. May go back in and back Bernie
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    95/177 precincts in Des Moines have reported. That's 56%, barely different from the 61% reported number for state as a whole.

    This implies that Sanders is unlikely to get a meaningful boost from Des Moines being so far underrepresented.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Watching CNN this evening, seems like Mayor Pete is their favourite candidate. Bigging him up while barely mentioning Sanders or Warren.

    He’s news, that’s why. Sanders was expected to win.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,239
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Watching CNN this evening, seems like Mayor Pete is their favourite candidate. Bigging him up while barely mentioning Sanders or Warren.

    The torch is passing to a new generation.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,599
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So I best get learning how to properly pronounce Buttigieg.

    Like the t shirts say, Boot Edge Edge.
This discussion has been closed.