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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON and UKIP both now in the 20s in the first two of tonigh

SystemSystem Posts: 11,688
edited May 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON and UKIP both now in the 20s in the first two of tonight’s GE2015 polls

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    First

    *Innocent face*
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First

    *Innocent face*

    You sir, are a cheat!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    When will the Tories give up on the idea of crossover?
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    There's remarkably little difference between those two.

    Do they have their own panels, or do they subcontract that to a third party?
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Could David Cameron go down as the first Conservative and Unionist PM to oversee the end of both the union and the conservative party?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    edited May 2014
    The survation is a bit volatile, it is a reversion to their penultimate poll prior to this one, as was their prior poll
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    When will this crossover take place ?
  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Rumour of crossover in YouGov tomorrow though 36/35... No idea whether that's true but rumours do tend to be...
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,826
    Can we just get this European Election over and done with and get things back to normal?

    Talking of getting things over and done with, Eurovision is getting to the point where a burst spleen would be more entertaining...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972
    BobaFett said:

    Rumour of crossover in YouGov tomorrow though 36/35... No idea whether that's true but rumours do tend to be...

    Naughty ;)
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    NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    edited May 2014
    kle4 said:

    When will the Tories give up on the idea of crossover?

    Dunno, but UKIP seem to be closing the gap quite nicely!
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    BobaFett said:

    Rumour of crossover in YouGov tomorrow though 36/35... No idea whether that's true but rumours do tend to be...

    It would have been announced by now.
  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    RobD said:

    BobaFett said:

    Rumour of crossover in YouGov tomorrow though 36/35... No idea whether that's true but rumours do tend to be...



    Naughty ;)
    Just what I read on UKPR. That all said, you'd perhaps think it would have been trailed by now, were it true.
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2014
    It's become pretty damn clear that the Tories now have far more votes on their right than on their left. At what point do they wake up to this, stop fiddling round the edges, and start embracing some properly conservative positions:

    - Start getting tough with Europe. Demand an upper limit on immigration from the EU in any one year. If we don't get it, argue for Better Off Out.
    - Proper action on wrong doers. Double prison sentences for violent crime and home burglaries, and get rid of concurrent sentencing.
    - Finally enact that British Bill of Rights, including requiring warrants or probably cause for government searches, a British court to examine evidence before extradition and stopping companies storing our personal communications without permission.
    - Get rid of these ridiculous bans on free speech for social media and real life. Just because we don't like an opinion doesn't mean we should ban it unless its an ongoing campaign of harassment against someone specific.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @TSE FPT

    Either Baroness Hogg, Patience Wheatcroft, Diane Coyle or Marjorie Scardino

    Sarah's already been a Deputy Governor, so doubt she'd want to do it again
    Albert Scardino is pretty ill right now, so doubt Majorie is up for more than hanging out in Savannah

    I'd go with Patience.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    A 4.5% swing from Con to UKIP on this showing would make UKIP the second largest party - seems not impossible if the Euros give UKIP enough of a media hit. That'd really mess with the "only X can beat Y" leaflets by all parties.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972
    BobaFett said:

    RobD said:

    BobaFett said:

    Rumour of crossover in YouGov tomorrow though 36/35... No idea whether that's true but rumours do tend to be...



    Naughty ;)
    Just what I read on UKPR. That all said, you'd perhaps think it would have been trailed by now, were it true.
    Would have certainly felt something by now....as if millions of squirrels cried out in terror, and now are silenced. :')
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2014
    @Next @BobaFett FPT

    DAF is a technical term used in the City. Stands for "Dodgy as F..."
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Ninoinoz said:

    kle4 said:

    When will the Tories give up on the idea of crossover?

    Dunno, but UKIP seem to be closing the gap quite nicely!
    I don't think the Avery-Crosby types view the "Crossover" as the UKIP crossing over the Tories.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Survation tables.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/MoS-tables-11-May-2014.pdf
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Socrates said:

    Could David Cameron go down as the first Conservative and Unionist PM to oversee the end of both the union and the conservative party?

    Well I'm not sure how there could be a second...
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Socrates said:

    It's become pretty damn clear that the Tories now have far more votes on their right than on their left. At what point do they wake up to this, stop fiddling round the edges, and start embracing some properly conservative positions:

    - Start getting tough with Europe. Demand an upper limit on immigration from the EU in any one year. If we don't get it, argue for Better Off Out.
    - Proper action on wrong doers. Double prison sentences for violent crime and home burglaries, and get rid of concurrent sentencing.
    - Finally enact that British Bill of Rights, including requiring warrants or probably cause for government searches, a British court to examine evidence before extradition and stopping companies storing our personal communications without permission.

    Do you think any of those 'demands' possible while in coalition with the LDs/
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    Azerbaijan gives the Ruskies 12 points and lots of booing.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Azerbaijan gives the Ruskies 12 points and lots of booing.

    Almost unfortunate to the Russian entry that they were very good - they'll probably get quite a lot of points from many, not just the traditional bloc, and the booing is bound to get to them eventually.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    Socrates said:

    Could David Cameron go down as the first Conservative and Unionist PM to oversee the end of both the union and the conservative party?

    Surely the first to oversee the end of the Conservative Party would also be the last!
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SimonStClare said:



    Do you think any of those 'demands' possible while in coalition with the LDs/

    No, but it would make clear the difference in the coalition, and they could put it in their manifesto for next time.
  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Socrates said:

    It's become pretty damn clear that the Tories now have far more votes on their right than on their left. At what point do they wake up to this, stop fiddling round the edges, and start embracing some properly conservative positions:

    - Start getting tough with Europe. Demand an upper limit on immigration from the EU in any one year. If we don't get it, argue for Better Off Out.
    - Proper action on wrong doers. Double prison sentences for violent crime and home burglaries, and get rid of concurrent sentencing.
    - Finally enact that British Bill of Rights, including requiring warrants or probably cause for government searches, a British court to examine evidence before extradition and stopping companies storing our personal communications without permission.
    - Get rid of these ridiculous bans on free speech for social media and real life. Just because we don't like an opinion doesn't mean we should ban it unless its an ongoing campaign of harassment against someone specific.

    The Tories tried marching off to the right in 2005. They ended up in a wilderness.
  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Charles said:

    Socrates said:

    Could David Cameron go down as the first Conservative and Unionist PM to oversee the end of both the union and the conservative party?

    Well I'm not sure how there could be a second...
    :)
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,964
    BobaFett said:

    Socrates said:

    It's become pretty damn clear that the Tories now have far more votes on their right than on their left. At what point do they wake up to this, stop fiddling round the edges, and start embracing some properly conservative positions:

    - Start getting tough with Europe. Demand an upper limit on immigration from the EU in any one year. If we don't get it, argue for Better Off Out.
    - Proper action on wrong doers. Double prison sentences for violent crime and home burglaries, and get rid of concurrent sentencing.
    - Finally enact that British Bill of Rights, including requiring warrants or probably cause for government searches, a British court to examine evidence before extradition and stopping companies storing our personal communications without permission.
    - Get rid of these ridiculous bans on free speech for social media and real life. Just because we don't like an opinion doesn't mean we should ban it unless its an ongoing campaign of harassment against someone specific.

    The Tories tried marching off to the right in 2005. They ended up in a wilderness.
    Nope, they tried fighting Blair and their own wrecked reputation which was always going to be a losing battle at that point.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    SimonStClare said:

    Socrates said:

    It's become pretty damn clear that the Tories now have far more votes on their right than on their left. At what point do they wake up to this, stop fiddling round the edges, and start embracing some properly conservative positions:

    - Start getting tough with Europe. Demand an upper limit on immigration from the EU in any one year. If we don't get it, argue for Better Off Out.
    - Proper action on wrong doers. Double prison sentences for violent crime and home burglaries, and get rid of concurrent sentencing.
    - Finally enact that British Bill of Rights, including requiring warrants or probably cause for government searches, a British court to examine evidence before extradition and stopping companies storing our personal communications without permission.

    Do you think any of those 'demands' possible while in coalition with the LDs/
    It is not possible to change the immigration from the EU, while remaining in the EU.

    Freedom of Labour is one of the four 'pillars' that underpins the EU. It will not be removed.

    It is possible - however unlikely - that we might negotiate an exemption from the CAP. Where our farmers would not receive EU payments, and they would be the responsibility of the UK. In return, the UK government would not pay the 42% of its 'fees' that relate to the CAP.

    But it is not possible to remove freedom of movement.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited May 2014
    Sweden, Hungary, Netherland and Russia and Austria duking it out early on it seems - I don't remember the Austiran one, but the rest seems fair.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,738
    Adam Tomkins tweets ; Didn't Mrs T negotiate an opt out from this bloody thing?
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    Charles said:

    @TSE FPT

    Either Baroness Hogg, Patience Wheatcroft, Diane Coyle or Marjorie Scardino

    Sarah's already been a Deputy Governor, so doubt she'd want to do it again
    Albert Scardino is pretty ill right now, so doubt Majorie is up for more than hanging out in Savannah

    I'd go with Patience.

    Does she still have a column in the Times ?

    As its not freely online anymore the only way of reading the Times is at a supermarket.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,933
    Hungary have to be a bet at a double figure price
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    anotherDave said:

    Survation tables.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/MoS-tables-11-May-2014.pdf

    survation have UKIP taking 11% of 2010 Lab voters. Given how low Labour's vote was in 2010, that's pretty impressive.

    (21% 2010 Con, 21% 2010 LD)

    page 8

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    Russian lady getting booed.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I tipped the russian 12 points for belarus, covers my other bets...
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Survation have also added an "ethnic group:white/non-white".

    UKIP get 20% of the white vote, 8% of the non-white.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    A question: let's assume that UKIP does better than anyone (other than MikeK) anticipates in 2015, and secures 55 seats. Together with the Conservatives 280 odd, that gives a workable majority (and no other combination is remotely possible, so assume Libs 25 or so).

    There is a UKIP/Con inspired EU referendum in 2016, with individuals in the Conservative Party allowed to campaign as they wish.

    The referendum result comes in 55/45 to stay in.

    Does the Con/UKIP coalition last?

    What happens then?
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    CarlottaVance said:

    Adam Tomkins tweets ; Didn't Mrs T negotiate an opt out from this bloody thing?

    Ha! The old girl wasn't all bad :-)
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    "Peter the Punter" representing Austria doing rather well ....
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    Charles said:

    @TSE FPT

    Either Baroness Hogg, Patience Wheatcroft, Diane Coyle or Marjorie Scardino

    Sarah's already been a Deputy Governor, so doubt she'd want to do it again
    Albert Scardino is pretty ill right now, so doubt Majorie is up for more than hanging out in Savannah

    I'd go with Patience.

    Of course in all likelihood its SamCam who wants a female head of the BBC not Dave.

    Is this a hot conversation topic at Notting Hill dinner parties at present ?

    At least its less dangerous than last year's 'Bomb Syria' madness and less idiotic than, albeit somewhat echoey of, the 'Golden Skirts' of 2012.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Sweden top of the polls- but the chick with a beard is doing terribly well.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited May 2014
    Time for another soft soap Newsnight interview

    Ex-bank boss Paul Flowers is caught on video snorting drugs until 8am just days before he told a court he is ‘remorseful and dealing with this issue’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625176/The-picture-remorse-Ex-bank-boss-Paul-Flowers-caught-video-snorting-drugs-8am-just-days-told-court-remorseful-dealing-issue.html
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    Yay we give 12 points to Austria.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Participation in Eurovision Song Contest should be confined to EU members of only
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,826
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Time for another soft soap Newsnight interview

    Ex-bank boss Paul Flowers is caught on video snorting drugs until 8am just days before he told a court he is ‘remorseful and dealing with this issue’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2625176/The-picture-remorse-Ex-bank-boss-Paul-Flowers-caught-video-snorting-drugs-8am-just-days-told-court-remorseful-dealing-issue.html

    Where on earth does he get the energy?
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    anotherDave said:

    Survation have also added an "ethnic group:white/non-white".

    UKIP get 20% of the white vote, 8% of the non-white.

    In the EU Parliament vote (p.14) they get 32% of white voters, 16% of non-white.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited May 2014
    Ukraine and Russia neck and neck at the moment.

    Becoming a two horse race at the top.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    I wonder how many times the N word has been in a song played on Radio 1 Xtra?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/10822256/Broadcaster-forced-to-quit-by-BBC-after-accidentally-playing-a-song-with-the-N-word.html
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    Alcazar! I loved that band.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited May 2014
    I didn't think it was great, but I am surprised our entry is quite as low as it is. Come on people of the EBU.

    Sweden dropping back sharply for some reason
  • Options
    NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    edited May 2014
    rcs1000 said:

    A question: let's assume that UKIP does better than anyone (other than MikeK) anticipates in 2015, and secures 55 seats. Together with the Conservatives 280 odd, that gives a workable majority (and no other combination is remotely possible, so assume Libs 25 or so).

    There is a UKIP/Con inspired EU referendum in 2016, with individuals in the Conservative Party allowed to campaign as they wish.

    The referendum result comes in 55/45 to stay in.

    Does the Con/UKIP coalition last?

    What happens then?

    You're a businessman, Smithson jr., how about the following scenario?

    Tories (to UKIP): We'll offer an In/Out referendum in the coalition deal.

    UKIP: F*ck off! You're committed to such a referendum anyway. Those adverts on PB say so. Offer us something you're not obliged to do anyway.

    Tories: Leaving the EU without a referendum?

    UKIP: It's a deal!
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,964
    MikeSmithson said:

    Participation in Eurovision Song Contest should be confined to EU members of only

    Careful Mike, if that was adopted as a rule then it would boost the Better Off Out campaign hugely. :-)
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    isamisam Posts: 40,933
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I wonder how many times the N word has been in a song played on Radio 1 Xtra?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/10822256/Broadcaster-forced-to-quit-by-BBC-after-accidentally-playing-a-song-with-the-N-word.html

    Incredible
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    NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    MikeSmithson said:

    Participation in Eurovision Song Contest should be confined to EU members of only

    Why? It's not an EU song contest. The UK competed before it joined the EEC/EC/EU.
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Survation, p.18

    11% of UKIP voters could change their Westminster vote for Cons in 2015.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Austria have this in the bag now. Not even the interest of if France can get null points, sadly, just of how low we come on an ok entry.
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,014
    Maybe this should have been the Dutch Eurovision entry http://metro.co.uk/2014/05/09/dutch-girl-band-adam-singing-while-having-orgasms-might-be-the-most-out-there-music-video-yet-4722739/?ITO=facebook
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    surbiton said:

    BobaFett said:

    Rumour of crossover in YouGov tomorrow though 36/35... No idea whether that's true but rumours do tend to be...

    It would have been announced by now.
    No, YG on Saturday gets announced at midnight. But hey, Survation is the new Gold Standard, innit.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited May 2014
    Would be mildly interesting to see whose points tally was the most evenly distributed across the continent. Comes across as a bit odd when one or two of the frontrunners get nothing from one country.
  • Options
    ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    Given the ever closing gap between UKIP and the conservatives I feel it is the right time to pose this question

    Should the unlikely happen and UKIP overtake the conservatives in the GE polling and stay there can Mssr's Nabavi, ScottP etc all assure us now, given that they have been telling us all for weeks that we should vote for a party we despise in its current form and have little in common with in order to keep Milibrand and labour out, that they will indeed practice what they preach and hold their nose while putting a tick in the UKIP box?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Or if the votes were weighted by population.
    kle4 said:

    Would be mildly interesting to see whose points tally was the most evenly distributed across the continent.

  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    FPT, another_richard:

    On my postal ballot I'm informed that the Conservative Party stands for 'Real change in Europe'.

    Perhaps one of the Conservative cheerleaders here could give explain what that means and why the present Conservative MEPs haven't already achieved this 'real change'.

    I don't know if I count as a cheerleader, but I do notice that UKIP have been running ads saying they've had 'enough of open door immigration'. So perhaps some of the Kipperish Conservatives' critics could explain why the current UKIP MEPs, such as Nigel Farage, haven't already stopped it. (To be fair, what with defections and jail sentences, I suppose they could argue they haven't been on full form, but even so..)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    *Buffs Nails*
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Yeah – dreary song by a chap in a dress wins..! UK need Lily Savage to come out of retirement.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2014
    Cupid Stunt wins Eurovulsion...
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Just got in, I saw on Twitter Iceland went to 25/1 after their performance. Did people on PB.com get their 500/1s matched for good profit?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited May 2014
    Really didn't think the Austrian entry was that great, to be honest. Midtable appropriate for UK.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    kle4 said:

    Really didn't think the Austrian entry was that great, to be honest.

    It wasn't, but ticked all the right boxes for Western European eurovision watchers.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    ZenPagan said:

    Given the ever closing gap between UKIP and the conservatives I feel it is the right time to pose this question

    Should the unlikely happen and UKIP overtake the conservatives in the GE polling and stay there can Mssr's Nabavi, ScottP etc all assure us now, given that they have been telling us all for weeks that we should vote for a party we despise in its current form and have little in common with in order to keep Milibrand and labour out, that they will indeed practice what they preach and hold their nose while putting a tick in the UKIP box?

    Sure, if UKIP agrees to sensible policies, such as an In/Out referendum. Why not? Parties are a means to an end, not an end in themselves.

    My gripe with UKIP is that they are deliberately sabotaging what they claim to want. Either they are bonkers, or they don't actually want it. Or both, I suppose.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    "Peter the Punter" wins ....
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    Ninoinoz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A question: let's assume that UKIP does better than anyone (other than MikeK) anticipates in 2015, and secures 55 seats. Together with the Conservatives 280 odd, that gives a workable majority (and no other combination is remotely possible, so assume Libs 25 or so).

    There is a UKIP/Con inspired EU referendum in 2016, with individuals in the Conservative Party allowed to campaign as they wish.

    The referendum result comes in 55/45 to stay in.

    Does the Con/UKIP coalition last?

    What happens then?

    You're a businessman, Smithson jr., how about the following scenario?

    Tories (to UKIP): We'll offer an In/Out referendum in the coalition deal.

    UKIP: F*ck off! You're committed to such a referendum anyway. Those adverts on PB say so. Offer us something you're not obliged to do anyway.

    Tories: Leaving the EU without a referendum?

    UKIP: It's a deal!
    The Conservative Party will not leave the EU without a referendum because there would be at least 25 of my hypothetical 280 Conservative MPs would vote against it - either because they themselves opposed exit, or because they believed the political fall-out from not offering a referendum would be too great.

    You would need UKIP with at least 250 MPs, not 50, to achieve that goal. And even there, if - say - UKIP had secured only 33% of the popular vote, it would be difficult given that is hardly a mandate to implement a change of that magnitude. Many UKIP supporters, like Richard Tyndall, believe that exit requires a referendum, so you may even get a few MPs uncomfortable with your proposal.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    Quincel said:

    Just got in, I saw on Twitter Iceland went to 25/1 after their performance. Did people on PB.com get their 500/1s matched for good profit?

    One of PB's truly great trading bets.
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    ZenPagan said:

    Given the ever closing gap between UKIP and the conservatives I feel it is the right time to pose this question

    Should the unlikely happen and UKIP overtake the conservatives in the GE polling and stay there can Mssr's Nabavi, ScottP etc all assure us now, given that they have been telling us all for weeks that we should vote for a party we despise in its current form and have little in common with in order to keep Milibrand and labour out, that they will indeed practice what they preach and hold their nose while putting a tick in the UKIP box?

    Sure, if UKIP agrees to sensible policies, such as an In/Out referendum. Why not? Parties are a means to an end, not an end in themselves.

    My gripe with UKIP is that they are deliberately sabotaging what they claim to want. Either they are bonkers, or they don't actually want it. Or both, I suppose.
    Or they don't trust Cameron.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    ZenPagan said:

    Given the ever closing gap between UKIP and the conservatives I feel it is the right time to pose this question

    Should the unlikely happen and UKIP overtake the conservatives in the GE polling and stay there can Mssr's Nabavi, ScottP etc all assure us now, given that they have been telling us all for weeks that we should vote for a party we despise in its current form and have little in common with in order to keep Milibrand and labour out, that they will indeed practice what they preach and hold their nose while putting a tick in the UKIP box?

    Sure, if UKIP agrees to sensible policies, such as an In/Out referendum. Why not? Parties are a means to an end, not an end in themselves.

    My gripe with UKIP is that they are deliberately sabotaging what they claim to want. Either they are bonkers, or they don't actually want it. Or both, I suppose.
    Or they believe they will eventually get what they want somehow (their strength of belief is, after all, very strong), so it's not worth the price of a Cameron government to get it sooner, even if he can be trusted on it.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    nigel4england said:


    Or they don't trust Cameron.

    Indeed. Bonkers.

    Incidentally, are UKIP still keen on referendums, or are they frit of those now? In 2010, they claimed to be very keen:

    http://www.blogs.stopjunkmail.org.uk/diary/index.php?/archives/36-Political-junk-mail-from-UKIP.html
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2014
    ZenPagan said:

    Given the ever closing gap between UKIP and the conservatives I feel it is the right time to pose this question

    Should the unlikely happen and UKIP overtake the conservatives in the GE polling and stay there can Mssr's Nabavi, ScottP etc all assure us now, given that they have been telling us all for weeks that we should vote for a party we despise in its current form and have little in common with in order to keep Milibrand and labour out, that they will indeed practice what they preach and hold their nose while putting a tick in the UKIP box?

    I won't, because I think Farage would be a truly dreadful Prime Minister.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Nice beard.
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,014
    anotherDave said:

    Survation tables.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/MoS-tables-11-May-2014.pdf

    is Table 4 or Table 5 the headline figure?

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Quincel said:

    Just got in, I saw on Twitter Iceland went to 25/1 after their performance. Did people on PB.com get their 500/1s matched for good profit?

    One of PB's truly great trading bets.
    I stuck £50 up at 30s, was never matched.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ZenPagan said:

    can Mssr's Nabavi, ScottP etc all assure us now, given that they have been telling us all for weeks that we should vote for a party we despise in its current form and have little in common with in order to keep Milibrand and labour out

    I have never said that.

    A vote for UKIP is a vote for Miliband, but that is your choice, not mine.
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    AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    Yay the biggest waste of Saturday night peak viewing slot over for another year.
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    I reckon Dame Joan Bakewell would be a good BBC chair
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2014
    Charles said:


    I won't, because I think Farage would be a truly dreadful Prime Minister.

    Of course he would, but, in a forced choice of Farage vs a Labour PM, it would obviously depend:

    Farage vs Mandelson: Mandelson
    Farage vs Darling: Darling
    Farage vs Brown: Farage, probably, not sure
    Farage vs Balls: Balls
    Farage vs Miliband: Dunno, tricky one, probably Farage.

    But why the angst? We currently have, excluding Maggie, the best PM for half a century. It's a no-brainer.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    JackW said:

    "Peter the Punter" wins ....

    GoodEvening. Just arrived. So an Austrian bearded sausage wins. This proves that the
    Eurovision thing is completely bonkers. LOL
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Really didn't think the Austrian entry was that great, to be honest.

    It wasn't, but ticked all the right boxes for Western European eurovision watchers.
    If the song has nothing to do with the result, why not rename it Eurofreak contest?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Survation Euro poll:

    UKIP 32% (+1)
    Labour 28% (n/c)
    Conservatives 21% (-4)
    Liberal Dems 9% (+3)
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    JohnLilburne said:

    anotherDave said:

    Survation tables.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/MoS-tables-11-May-2014.pdf

    is Table 4 or Table 5 the headline figure?

    5

    twitter.com/Survation/status/465242213686190081
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    AndyJS said:

    Survation Euro poll:

    UKIP 32% (+1)
    Labour 28% (n/c)
    Conservatives 21% (-4)
    Liberal Dems 9% (+3)

    Ah, the Blue to Yellow unwind we've all been waiting for finally starts to show in the polls...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    edited May 2014
    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Really didn't think the Austrian entry was that great, to be honest.

    It wasn't, but ticked all the right boxes for Western European eurovision watchers.
    If the song has nothing to do with the result, why not rename it Eurofreak contest?
    50% of the vote is based on the song, and 25% on local politics and 25% is for what the artist/country represents/fun factor
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    AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    I like to think of it as Glastonbury for the gay community
    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Really didn't think the Austrian entry was that great, to be honest.

    It wasn't, but ticked all the right boxes for Western European eurovision watchers.
    If the song has nothing to do with the result, why not rename it Eurofreak contest?
    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Really didn't think the Austrian entry was that great, to be honest.

    It wasn't, but ticked all the right boxes for Western European eurovision watchers.
    If the song has nothing to do with the result, why not rename it Eurofreak contest?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    Just pile on any song that the gays would vote for ?
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    ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    ZenPagan said:

    Given the ever closing gap between UKIP and the conservatives I feel it is the right time to pose this question

    Should the unlikely happen and UKIP overtake the conservatives in the GE polling and stay there can Mssr's Nabavi, ScottP etc all assure us now, given that they have been telling us all for weeks that we should vote for a party we despise in its current form and have little in common with in order to keep Milibrand and labour out, that they will indeed practice what they preach and hold their nose while putting a tick in the UKIP box?

    Sure, if UKIP agrees to sensible policies, such as an In/Out referendum. Why not? Parties are a means to an end, not an end in themselves.

    My gripe with UKIP is that they are deliberately sabotaging what they claim to want. Either they are bonkers, or they don't actually want it. Or both, I suppose.

    What have sensible policies got to do with it? You vote conservative after all and they have no policies worth a damn.

    UKIP from what I can see want a balanced referendum. The likelihood of Cameron delivering anything like an in / out referendum with a reasonable balance on both sides of the question are slightly less than me going to bed tonight and finding a super model in it.

    Cameron is a spiv, a liar and slightly less trustworthy than your average shyster. He is an authoritarian big state spendthrift with tendencies to social democracy. While he stays and the conservatives remain a continuation of new labour you deserve nothing more than the voter abandonment you are experiencing

    You do not deserve to win in 2015 end of story
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    rcs1000 said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A question: let's assume that UKIP does better than anyone (other than MikeK) anticipates in 2015, and secures 55 seats. Together with the Conservatives 280 odd, that gives a workable majority (and no other combination is remotely possible, so assume Libs 25 or so).

    There is a UKIP/Con inspired EU referendum in 2016, with individuals in the Conservative Party allowed to campaign as they wish.

    The referendum result comes in 55/45 to stay in.

    Does the Con/UKIP coalition last?

    What happens then?

    You're a businessman, Smithson jr., how about the following scenario?

    Tories (to UKIP): We'll offer an In/Out referendum in the coalition deal.

    UKIP: F*ck off! You're committed to such a referendum anyway. Those adverts on PB say so. Offer us something you're not obliged to do anyway.

    Tories: Leaving the EU without a referendum?

    UKIP: It's a deal!
    The Conservative Party will not leave the EU without a referendum because there would be at least 25 of my hypothetical 280 Conservative MPs would vote against it - either because they themselves opposed exit, or because they believed the political fall-out from not offering a referendum would be too great.

    You would need UKIP with at least 250 MPs, not 50, to achieve that goal. And even there, if - say - UKIP had secured only 33% of the popular vote, it would be difficult given that is hardly a mandate to implement a change of that magnitude. Many UKIP supporters, like Richard Tyndall, believe that exit requires a referendum, so you may even get a few MPs uncomfortable with your proposal.
    If a week is a long time in politics, what about 49 weeks? A lot can change in a year and if UKIP come top in the EU elections in 12 days; it's all to play for.
    Just to stir it I had a dream that UKIP would get 88 seats in 2015. My dream and most PBers nightmare. Oh well.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,826
    MikeK said:

    . This proves that the
    Eurovision thing is completely bonkers. LOL

    And in other new, the Pope's catholic! ;)

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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    A question: let's assume that UKIP does better than anyone (other than MikeK) anticipates in 2015, and secures 55 seats. Together with the Conservatives 280 odd, that gives a workable majority (and no other combination is remotely possible, so assume Libs 25 or so).

    There is a UKIP/Con inspired EU referendum in 2016, with individuals in the Conservative Party allowed to campaign as they wish.

    The referendum result comes in 55/45 to stay in.

    Does the Con/UKIP coalition last?

    What happens then?

    About seat predictions you can try to use the constituency polls as a proxy, BBC exit polls use 100 representative constituency polls to predict seats, 13 constituency polls have been published so far, its a challenge. I may try to do the numbers tommorow based on those.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited May 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Really didn't think the Austrian entry was that great, to be honest.

    It wasn't, but ticked all the right boxes for Western European eurovision watchers.
    If the song has nothing to do with the result, why not rename it Eurofreak contest?
    50% of the vote is based on the song, and 25% on local politics and 25% is for what the artist/country represents/fun factor
    Quite so. Far from the first time the best song has not won, but people voted for it for other reasons (presentation, etc).

    On topic, many Tories remain very complacent that UKIPers will eventually, in enough numbers, return to the fold for the GE. I don;t think enough will return for a Tory win to be feasible, but at what point will the Tory supporters really start to panic if the UKIP poll share does not appear to be dropping fast enough?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,488
    Pulpstar said:

    Just pile on any song that the gays would vote for ?

    Nah. Is more sophisticated than that.
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    ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    Scott_P said:

    ZenPagan said:

    can Mssr's Nabavi, ScottP etc all assure us now, given that they have been telling us all for weeks that we should vote for a party we despise in its current form and have little in common with in order to keep Milibrand and labour out

    I have never said that.

    A vote for UKIP is a vote for Miliband, but that is your choice, not mine.
    Your implication is that a vote for ukip takes one from the tories. If ukip are in the lead in the polls then the boot is on the other foot and it is the conservatives taking the victory away. This is going by your arguments not mine.

    Personally I pointed out that if people vote ukip and not conservatives that the only people to blame is the conservative party for not being worth voting for. Something they demonstrate admirably day after day. They have even managed to turn Taffys away now
This discussion has been closed.