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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dave might not have been so upbeat at PMQs if this Ipsos-MORI poll had come out two hours earlier
Chart from Ipsos-MORI showing today's poll with LAB lead up 7 to 11% pic.twitter.com/3NYnE3em7m
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David Cameron’s net satisfaction rating of -16 (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) is an improvement of 8 points since last month, and his highest this year. 38% are satisfied with the Prime Minister, 54% are dissatisfied. Satisfaction with David Cameron among Conservative supporters has also improved with 78% satisfied and 17% dissatisfied.
30% are satisfied with Mr Miliband’s performance as Labour leader compared with 56% who are dissatisfied. His net rating of -26 has fallen by five points from last month and is his lowest since January 2012. Mr Miliband has a net satisfaction rating of -1 among Labour supporters, with 43% satisfied and 44% dissatisfied.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3196/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-July-2013.aspx
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
PMQs verdict seems slightly sub-optimal for reds. This from the New Statesman....
Cameron's rollcall of achievements was an apt summary of why the Tories believe the political tide has turned in their favour. An economic recovery finally appears to be underway and the public has tolerated, rather than revolted against austerity. As Cameron noted, it is now February since Miliband asked a full set of questions about the economy. The fear among Labour MPs was always that their party's poll lead owed more to distaste for the coalition than it did to enthusiasm for them. Now, as growth returns, the danger is that it will crumble.
David Cameron’s net satisfaction rating of -16 (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) is an improvement of 8 points since last month, and his highest this year. 38% are satisfied with the Prime Minister, 54% are dissatisfied. Satisfaction with David Cameron among Conservative supporters has also improved with 78% satisfied and 17% dissatisfied.
30% are satisfied with Mr Miliband’s performance as Labour leader compared with 56% who are dissatisfied. His net rating of -26 has fallen by five points from last month and is his lowest since January 2012. Mr Miliband has a net satisfaction rating of -1 among Labour supporters, with 43% satisfied and 44% dissatisfied.
So Dave on -16, and Ed -26.
I so feel for tim - hi, there buddy, I know you're looking in!
His net rating of -26 has fallen by five points from last month and is his lowest since January 2012. Mr Miliband has a net satisfaction rating of -1 among Labour supporters, with 43% satisfied and 44% dissatisfied.
Didn't Tim and OGH say the UNITE debacle would allow Miliband to portray himself as "strong" and "Prime Ministerial?"
I thought my choice of footwear made that obvious.
@MSmithsonPB
EdM's Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings now as bad as Hague at the same stage of his leadership http://pic.twitter.com/GTWuvIV2fn
Oh, wait...
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB3m
EdM's Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings now as bad as Hague at the same stage of his leadership
If the trend of Labour's slow and gradual downwards slide continues we'll see more "rogues" like ICM coming in.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/07/15/there_is_no_scientific_consensus_on_sealevel_rise_say_scientists/
Tumbleweed.....
In any event - Leader Ratings are terrible for EdM - Jan 2012 was Vetogasm territory, wasn't it? And when the Tories were first advocating the Welfare Cap.
@Scott_P said:
"The best was Kate Green, who knew what was going to happen, did it anyway, and grimaced through the inevitable response.
@oflynnexpress: Lab is in retreat on welfare, immigration, tax & spend, union links + leader looking his weakest ever. Doesn't look like winning prospectus."
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Absolutely Scott_P
And this is mid-term. As the economy improves is it likely that Labour will rebound ? Unlikely in my view. To my mind the question becomes how bad will it become for Labour.
Does Ed enjoy the leadership skills to limit the damage - Is he William Hague of 2001 or Michael Foot from 1983 ?
The clock it is a ticking ....
Off topic....
Peter Hunt @BBCPeterHunt 11m
Queen asked if she wants baby to be a boy or a girl says"Idon't really mind.I hope it arrives soon because I'm going on holiday #RoyalBaby
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/07/the-bloody-tussle-for-the-moral-high-ground/
But mid-term polls are mid-term polls. Anything can happen in the next half-hour. Ed is safe. Dave is safe. Clegg is safe. But the future looks blue (though I'd better be careful what I say because as Harry Hayfield will describe next Thursday, we have an important by-election in a traditionally safe ward, but the candidates will only be Cons, UKIP and LibDem...and I don't want my summer ruined by the Nige's purple peril)
Con vote lead 6.9%
Con seat lead 51 seats
Labour tend not to be good regicides but will the knives start twitching in their hilts if this time next year ICM show Labour on the ropes. What might save Ed at that time is the illusion of the Euro-elections - fools gold in the electoral cycle if there was ever any !!
I’m loathe to say it – because it feels like we end up here every year – but Miliband will need to give another impressive conference speech to give himself a boost with the public. But more than that, he needs to be more visible and have more to say (in terms of policies) if he’s going to turn this around.
Above all though, he needs to keep his head, when the rest of the party might be losing theirs.
http://labourlist.org/2013/07/labours-lead-is-up-to-11-with-ipsos-mori-the-polls-are-all-over-the-place-but-milibands-personal-ratings-are-a-worry/
“@LabourList: Labour’s lead is up… but Miliband’s personal ratings are a http://labli.st/15lFcUA ” > A masterpiece in not saying the thing.
Clearly Ed is having a shit 2013,after a good 2012. He has serious questions to answer.
Clegg is the most consistent of the bunch. Not that it does him any good.
IMO the acid test is whether the Tories are any closer to winning the seats like Eastleigh they need to win a majority? Can't see it yet. Personally still expecting limited Labour gains making the post 2015 aftermath about as messy as possible.
From the FT: "Housing starts declined 9.9 per cent in June to an annual rate of 836,000 units, sharply below expectations, according to new data from the Census Bureau.
Economists had forecast a 5.0 per cent improvement to 960,000 starts."
"As tim's pb carer ...."
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Dear God the self sacrifice you must endure JohnO. We are in awe man, awe !!
Clegg is the most consistent of the bunch. Not that it does him any good.
I can see a lot of schmoozing for Nick ahead of the GE, and all those threats that we'd never deal with Clegg looking a bit unwise. It won't be the Cleggasm, more of a we can't do without you.
A no-change election would be about the messiest possible outcome. Difficult questions would be asked of all party leaders.
PB Tories miss the fact that the big story here is Ed Ball's quietude playing the long game. His silence stopped the Fops in their tracks. Just like in Headingley. But NHS statistical illiterates never learn. Remind me what is 50% of 100 again?
And I'll bet you £50 that Jeremy Chum goes to Fopshire on his holidays.
(note: apologies but I feel that there's a certain je ne sais quoi missing from PB at the mo')
Before the 2010 GE I expected and hoped for a Con/LibDem coalition and I voted for the best placed of the two - Conservative as it happened.
In 2015 I would encourage Coalitionistas to do the same. Vote for the best placed candidate. Ed is not PM material and their present guise as "Not The Coalition" requires of them a further period in opposition to envolve into a viable Social Democrat alternative.
The last IPCC report was up front about the uncertainties in mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, so they left them out completely from their projections of 21st century sea level rise.
On sea level rise - without the contribution from ice sheets - the consensus is very clear: sea levels will continue to rise as heat penetrates the deep oceans and mountain glaciers melt.
This seems a match for ICM at the other extreme - it seems likely that the real lead is 7-8%, as it has roughly been for what feels like about 2 years now after a brief period when it was 10ish. Leader ratings rise and fall, the economy dips and steadies, scandals come and go, but the basic position hasn't changed much apart from UKIP's rise. If there's an effect of leader rating, it's factored in. We're hearing a lot of Tory whistling in the dark this week, but it's not really any lighter for them.
That is not as big a problem for Labour as it was for the Hague-led Tories, because Cameron ain't no Blair.
Tell that to the right wing organ that is the New Statesman...
Cameron's rollcall of achievements was an apt summary of why the Tories believe the political tide has turned in their favour. An economic recovery finally appears to be underway and the public has tolerated, rather than revolted against austerity. As Cameron noted, it is now February since Miliband asked a full set of questions about the economy. The fear among Labour MPs was always that their party's poll lead owed more to distaste for the coalition than it did to enthusiasm for them. Now, as growth returns, the danger is that it will crumble.
The runway itself won't cost very much and will be paid for privately I'm sure.
Are they planning on splitting the profits with us long suffering taxpayers?
FGP TopCo Limited should look for cash elsewhere before tapping up the public purse. If the numbers work they'll get it.
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.01% (1 in ten thousand)
Chance of a Labour vote lead. 0.01% (ditto)
Chance of a Labour seat lead: 4.2%
Chance of a Tory majority: 27.7%
Chance of a hung parliament: 72.3%
Ed's ratings are closer to Clegg than to Cameron's ratings
Meanwhile, it's a shame that tim isn't around to enjoy the Labour 11% lead, even as Ed Miliband falls behind David Cameron in the leadership ratings. Afopalypse now?
Lab maj 2.68-2.76
NOM 2.36 - 2.52
Most Seats
Lab 1.74-1.75
Con 2.42 -2.46
Followers of Rod's models should then lay Lab most seats ?
You can see the graphs and discussion here:
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-6-5.html
More importantly both the Register article and the original paper from Nature Geoscience make it clear that their argument is not with the IPCC but with the claims of alarmists that there will be accelerated sea level rise. So you are making rather a straw man of this as a means of deflecting from a finding that clearly you find difficult to stomach.
EdM moves into a negative position amongst LAB supporters in the Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings pic.twitter.com/uxIwYObJJH
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/357498793505218560/photo/1
EdM moves into a negative position amongst LAB supporters in the Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings pic.twitter.com/uxIwYObJJH
This shows Ed's bravery and leadership in taking on Unite - the negative reaction is presumably just from those 'union-enrolled' Lab supporters and shows how well he is doing if they have reacted so negatively.
Great move, short term pain for long term gain.
(c) Red team
I can't see Ed "overtaking" Clegg.
Be pretty funny if he did though.
Interestingly YouGov are 3 months ahead of Mori on tracking Ed's leadership fall/Dave's lead.
four year sentence
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10183517/Ban-on-selling-new-Mercedes-in-EU-moves-closer.html
I still think my main point stands - the study in Nature Geoscience is a no change on the existing IPCC consensus, with the [excellent] GRACE satellites not yet providing enough data. No-one would have expected that ten years worth of data would be enough to detect acceleration, so this is not a surprise either.
I have no difficulty with the finding, I'm just pointing out that it isn't a "hand grenade".
No more the Labour call of bring me the head of Alfredo Clegg or Tories singing to the tune of Peter Bone. soon it will be the Bone is left alone as they all wander off to do up a rose garden.
For about a year (April 2012 - May 2013) it showed them pulling modestly ahead in seats (never forecasting a majority), but even that now seems to be on the turn.
Reason? Cameron's PM approval ratings are consistently good, and the L&N model shows this is, historically, by far the best predictor of the next election...
Opinion polls are just the voters moaning against the incumbent government, as voters invariably do.
But PM approval shows where they are going to place their 'X' next time...
I'm a fan of Clegg and a cockroacher.
Now that I'm resident of Sheffield Hallam I am contemplating giving him my vote in 2015
Would be interesting - if Mike was ok - to have a thread on different models (Baxter, L&N, etc) with a view on pros and cons? Perhaps something for the summer?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VqjXalcSpVs