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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What’ll be critical in the next week or so is whether this
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What’ll be critical in the next week or so is whether this week’s EURef developments will be reflected in the polling
UPDATED table of published #EURef poll where actual question was put pic.twitter.com/ReoZqCRkOD
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Who the hell ever thought this women should ever be personally in charge of £100's millions.
Florida, on March 15, is the first winner take all state.
Use that plus http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/beware-a-gop-calendar-front-loaded-with-states-friendly-to-trump-and-cruz/ to get a feel.
I've built an Excel model with various assumptions. It basically gives Trump the nomination 80% of the time, Rubio 20%. But I suspect Rubio's poll share is understated. So, Trump is probably 50-60%, and Rubio 30-40%.
Does she think we should all ignore laws we don't like, or is it just her that's so special?
The BBC programme is totally wrong in the sense that the women behind the documentary is a personal long time friend of Batwomen. It is way too much, "but think of the kids"...insert heart felt music....
Mediaite @Mediaite 27m27 minutes ago
'That Was BS': CNN's Baldwin Rips Into Cruz for Throwing Her Network 'Under the Bus' http://bit.ly/1S11R4q VIDEO
This gives you a small idea of what happened, a lot of conspiracy meat going around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8hJofse56g
So, a mild move to Remain is imo neutral (in particular, it's not especially bad news for Leave).
Conversely, if the polls are static or move to Leave that is sinister for Remain.
Obviously if there's a strong move to Remain, that's good for Remain, bad for Leave.
And Batwomen has now admitted that "in theory we shouldn't be supporting her"....clearly laws and rules don't apply to her.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmselect/cmpubadm/433/43309.htm#_idTextAnchor127
18.Mr Yentob acknowledges his poor judgement in respect of his position at the BBC during the summer of 2015. His actions were unwise at best, and deliberately intimidating at worst. He has since resigned his main position at the BBC but he still retains substantial responsibilities within the organisation and oversees substantial budgets. It is not within the remit of this Committee to comment on the governance of the BBC, but the proper governance of conflicts of interest and standards of behaviour – particularly amongst its senior executives – is a very serious matter for any reputable organisation. That a senior figure could act in this way and it could take so long for action to be taken reflects poorly on the BBC’s leadership. (Paragraph 70).
Can't see him spinning out of that one.
Seriously I fail to see a single state Rubio can win, that is his problem, well behind Trump even in Florida. Trump will take the South, not Cruz, and Greater New England including the Rustbelt Trump will crush it with all the delegates that that region holds.
Rubio just isn't popular as his polling shows, just so vulnerable on immigration, intelligence and foreign policy.
Trump is the value bet.
The Prime Minister, among others
"And by hinting heavily today the government is preparing to publish a new law that would attempt to ensure that UK law could not be overturned by the European Court, the prime minister may bring some more waverers, potentially Boris Johnson, on board."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35488639
Probably should.
Never seems to occur to her that possibly there might be a problem with the organisation if you can't make payroll without constant new sources of money from government and the rich, above and beyond what has already been pumped in. It is like a weird sort of ponzi scheme.
Ignore the DKs at your peril.
In a 3 way race everything is possible, just look at the pileup on Cruz after his Iowa victory.
The first primaries are all that matter and in those it's a game of musical chairs of who surges last, Rubio won that one in Iowa, let's see who will surge last in N.H and S.Carolina.
Of course it's entirely possible that Rubio, having such a poor start, will surge last only to end up 3rd again.
It would be more appealing if they could do that - what would be the european retaliation? Would it even work? I note the phrase used is 'attempt to ensure' rather than just 'ensure'.
Indeed - more misdirection.
It's Michael Gove's initiative on the repeal of the Human Rights Act and replacement with a British Bill of Rights.
It will set up the UK Supreme Court as the UK constitutional court, like Germany has, and the inference is that it will be able to rule in favour of the UK on a constitution - rather than the ECHR - on things like prisoner votes.
It won't do much, and has *nothing* to do with the renegotiation, but it is tangentially linked to "Europe".
They calculate most people won't understand the difference.
"hinting heavily"
"attempt to ensure"
Not very convincing.
So on reflection I was wrong, it is more of a dead cat strategy than I first thought.
It's always been a stock market dead cat bounce.
Grrrrrrrrrr!
This raises my BP far more than it should.
#cough
"Pong • Posts: 1,869
January 30
Last chance to take punt against trump before people actually start voting and the odds change substantially.
Will these elusive trumpers actually turnout? There's little evidence of a proper ground game in iowa, but perhaps trump doesn't need one?
I'm betting against him @ evens.
If I'm wrong and trump storms Iowa, his odds will plummet. If it's all hot air, or he underperforms, he may well have blown the nomination altogether.
IMO, at evens, the risk is on trump.
Lay."
#cough
Not only mismanagement, but an attitude that nothing applies to her. Laws, rule, regulations, they just don't apply. Government tell her the grant is for redundancy payments and she spends it on wages, then goes apeshit when they realise what she has done and ask for what is left of the money.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35479506
So here' s an experiment that I recommend, since PB is 80% Tory and over the age of 50, lets do a poll of PB users.
If a majority comes in favour of Remain the phone polls are right, if it's Leave the online polls are right.
Perhaps today's dead cat was Lord Lucan's death certificate. Tomorrow's dead cat is Lord Lucan turning up alive after all.
Remember, the EHCR is nothing to do with the EU.
It is like saying a ponzi scheme works, it just erhhh well runs out of new sources of money....
dead cat bounce - up-tick on stock that is still dead really
throw dead cat on table - change narrative with shocking distraction
I do struggle with seeing the logic of her positioning, even from a 'think of the children' pov. Her organisation was collapsing despite repeated dumps of money, and even her definition of how many they helped includes people who didn't need it and is not as many as it should be for that amount of money, so how can she believe (as she has seemed to indicate in the past and I presume tonight) that the solution would be that the government must continue to pump money in no matter what?
Diversity is good.
Diversity is cool.
Diversity can do no wrong.
Incidentally, I support both Cameron and Gove 100% on the repeal of the 1998 HRA and their attempts to set up a UK constitutional court. It's a big reason why I voted Conservative last year.
What I object to is taking advantage of people's confusion on this to bolster the case for Remain and link it to the deal; it's disingenuous.
How will you vote in the EU referendum?
https://www.nojam.com/post/550
I do not believe for a second there would not be retaliatory measures somehow from someone. Those who claim power over others don't like it when those others try to alter the dynamics. If we can just declare this without issue, why wouldn't a whole bunch of others have done it? We're the only selfish bastards in Europe? Not likely.
Who would even care? I doubt it would merit a two paragraph page six story in Bildt.
Old age?
LOL....and she was going to spin that this guy wasn't her driver, because when she gives speeches she has another driver....which costs another £40k a year....
Her friend asking the questions are absolutely feeble...a real impartial documentary maker would have totally nailed her to the floor.
"My organisation would collapse without constant funding from government...I didn't use government money as i was told to fix problems...therefore it's the government's fault they did not continue to give me money regardless, and how dare the media look into things"
The woman's a lunatic. A perfect stereotype of a self important, incompetent leech on public money, clearly concerned with satisfying her own ego as a public dogooder and nothing else.
Well, she's got me angry at her rather than disappointed in the EU deal -so she's the dead cat?
https://twitter.com/CommonsPACAC/status/695002967838162944
Oh god her friend making the documentary is now crying about how it has all gone wrong and made it easy for the media to attack her. Totally unable to be impartial.
Genuine question, I will freely admit to operating on emotion more than the full facts on such topics so am quite willing to be convinced from my position, and you make it sound as though there could be no negatives from anyone.
The Osborne fans have an aversion to actual economic data similar to a vampire's aversion to sunlight.
The Out campaign’s problem is that it can’t agree on what life after Brexit looks like
Without a unified position on a post-EU future, Cameron's opponents will struggle to convince the public.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/02/out-campaign-s-problem-it-can-t-agree-what-life-after-brexit-looks
It's all about mood music through all this stuff. The Inners will shout victory, the Outers will shout meaningless, the details don't matter but whose voice echoes loudest will count for something.
Other than that, I'm currently treading water. Not really sure where the value lies.
My book right now is pretty healthy (most of the profit came from heavily laying trump before iowa - as tipped on here)
POTUS
Hillary +- £0
Rubio/Cruz/Sanders/Bush/Trump +£1580
Jeb +1820
Bloomberg +£42k
Ryan +£100k
Everyone else +~3k to 6k
Cashout value ~£1200
GOP
Rubio/Trump/Cruz/Bush +£434
Ryaan +£30k
Everyone else +£10k
Cashout value ~£500
I also bought Rubio pre-iowa on SPIN @10 for £10 per pt.
Letwin
Blair
Brown
Now I wonder which way that bunch will be voting on the EU.
It was Conservative policy to change that in 2010, but it was never proposed for the coalition agreement (and the LibDems would have opposed it anyway). The Conservatives are now belatedly looking to repeal it. The issue is that we do need to replace it with something (the so called Bill of Rights, allegedly), which means it probably won'y happen immediately.
What does it say? It isn't unsafe !
Well done.
The people who make a fuss are the parasitic lawyers who benefit so much from the current arrangement
(Damn good book, btw)