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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A worry for LAB? The gloss could be coming off Corbyn’s appeal

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited January 26 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A worry for LAB? The gloss could be coming off Corbyn’s appeal to young voters

Perhaps the great hope of Corbyn’s Labour is that when the next general election comes, whenever that is, comes that the party will be able to repeat the GE2017 feat and secure huge backing from the youth vote. It was this, of course, combined with a much reduced turnout by the over-65s, that resulted in Theresa May GE17 gamble failing and the Tories losing their majority.

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Comments

  • First
  • Assume McDonnell has his fingers in his ears as Trump makes the compelling case for low taxes and reduced regulation
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,493
    I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,650
    edited January 26
    Surely, one of the effects is that the students in 2017 and 2018 are realising that they will be the graduate employees of 2022.

    Someone who will be a student in 2022 has a real incentive to vote for Corbyn (most of these people are still in school).

    By 2022, the present cohort of students will not be benefiting as they fall into the category of the generation in which "there are no plans to write off student debt", at least according to Angela Rayner.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,840
    HYUFD said:

    I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

    It does rather confirm the claim from a Momentum activist that another 2 weeks and Labour would have actually won the last election.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,756
    Corbyn is quite bad at day to day politics, so this sort of fall should be expected.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,516
    Curious that it peaked at only 47%. Given the claimed enthusiasm of this age group for Jeremy Corbyn, that's rather low.

    Perhaps Labour's support always was more about the policies rather than the leader.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,479
    Momentum have definitely been trying to defend Corbyn against attacks on his position on Brexit. There's even been a rival hashtag #PCPEU which means pro-Corbyn, pro-EU, because they perceived #FBPE as undermining support for Corbyn.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 470
    HYUFD said:

    I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

    That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,218
    They are getting bored. On to the next fad.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,493

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

    It does rather confirm the claim from a Momentum activist that another 2 weeks and Labour would have actually won the last election.
    It may have been able to do a deal with the SNP, I doubt it would have won an overall majority
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,493

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

    That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour
    Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,479
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

    That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour
    Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave
    Given that polling shows a similar percentage of Conservatives support Remain to the number of Labour voters who support Leave, how do you suggest the Conservatives should try to perform the same careful balancing act?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,041
    Any link to the tables for this? How high were the don't knows? Any word on other age group movements?
    Without this information it is difficult to draw conclusions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,493

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

    That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour
    Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave
    Given that polling shows a similar percentage of Conservatives support Remain to the number of Labour voters who support Leave, how do you suggest the Conservatives should try to perform the same careful balancing act?
    The Tories are quite clear they want a FTA with the EU while leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement, Labour is still not certain what it wants
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,040

    Curious that it peaked at only 47%. Given the claimed enthusiasm of this age group for Jeremy Corbyn, that's rather low.

    Perhaps Labour's support always was more about the policies rather than the leader.

    YouGov did some polling on that and found 18-24 y/olds voted Labour in 2017 for the policies (26%) slightly more than Jezza (24%). That gap is much larger for 25-49 group.

    Personally I think it’s the interaction between popular policies and personal authenticity. Corbyn is trusted not to do a Nick Clegg.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/07/11/why-people-voted-labour-or-conservative-2017-gener/
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,840

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

    That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour
    Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave
    Given that polling shows a similar percentage of Conservatives support Remain to the number of Labour voters who support Leave, how do you suggest the Conservatives should try to perform the same careful balancing act?
    Good point. In fact it is worse for the Conservatives. They are actually doing Brexit so risk making enemies of people who perceive themselves to be losers from the process. And I suspect that current Tory remainers feel more strongly about remaining than Labour leavers feel about leaving.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,479
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

    That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour
    Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave
    Given that polling shows a similar percentage of Conservatives support Remain to the number of Labour voters who support Leave, how do you suggest the Conservatives should try to perform the same careful balancing act?
    The Tories are quite clear they want a FTA with the EU while leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement, Labour is still not certain what it wants
    And what if Conservative Remain supports don't want that and would prefer to stay in the single market?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,040

    They are getting bored. On to the next fad.

    Fingers crossed the Tory party are similarly complacent.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,240

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

    That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour
    Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave
    Given that polling shows a similar percentage of Conservatives support Remain to the number of Labour voters who support Leave, how do you suggest the Conservatives should try to perform the same careful balancing act?
    The Tories are quite clear they want a FTA with the EU while leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement, Labour is still not certain what it wants
    And what if Conservative Remain supports don't want that and would prefer to stay in the single market?
    Tough :p
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,493

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

    That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour
    Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave
    Given that polling shows a similar percentage of Conservatives support Remain to the number of Labour voters who support Leave, how do you suggest the Conservatives should try to perform the same careful balancing act?
    The Tories are quite clear they want a FTA with the EU while leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement, Labour is still not certain what it wants
    And what if Conservative Remain supports don't want that and would prefer to stay in the single market?
    Well they are likely already voting Labour or LD anyway if they put that as a priority above all given leaving the single market was in the last Tory manifesto and given the only main UK wide party committed to staying permanently in the EU, the LDs, got just 7% that position has few ardent supporters
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    TGOHF said:
    Very sorry that we're seeing this nonsense. I have a number of issues with Labour's stance.

    Firstly, self-id trivialises a very complex and often (from my own experience) unpleasant condition. Access to treatment is hard (though some would still say it's too easy) and the process of transition can be tortuous, lengthy and expensive (the NHS might cover the cost of a vaginoplasty, but that's typically a small part of the process, albeit one that completes the journey).

    Secondly, the last thing we want to do is to alienate women who are rightly concerned about the message it sends. I know it is easy to gloat at this unhappy intersection of identity politics, but it should be considered outside the traditional partisan left/right divide.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,240
    John_M said:

    TGOHF said:
    Very sorry that we're seeing this nonsense. I have a number of issues with Labour's stance.

    Firstly, self-id trivialises a very complex and often (from my own experience) unpleasant condition. Access to treatment is hard (though some would still say it's too easy) and the process of transition can be tortuous, lengthy and expensive (the NHS might cover the cost of a vaginoplasty, but that's typically a small part of the process, albeit one that completes the journey).

    Secondly, the last thing we want to do is to alienate women who are rightly concerned about the message it sends. I know it is easy to gloat at this unhappy intersection of identity politics, but it should be considered outside the traditional partisan left/right divide.
    How about treating people equally, regardless of their gender?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    RobD said:

    John_M said:

    TGOHF said:
    Very sorry that we're seeing this nonsense. I have a number of issues with Labour's stance.

    Firstly, self-id trivialises a very complex and often (from my own experience) unpleasant condition. Access to treatment is hard (though some would still say it's too easy) and the process of transition can be tortuous, lengthy and expensive (the NHS might cover the cost of a vaginoplasty, but that's typically a small part of the process, albeit one that completes the journey).

    Secondly, the last thing we want to do is to alienate women who are rightly concerned about the message it sends. I know it is easy to gloat at this unhappy intersection of identity politics, but it should be considered outside the traditional partisan left/right divide.
    How about treating people equally, regardless of their gender?
    Once you've decided to have all women shortlists, you've abandoned that concept :).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 5,459
    John_M said:

    TGOHF said:
    Very sorry that we're seeing this nonsense. I have a number of issues with Labour's stance.

    Firstly, self-id trivialises a very complex and often (from my own experience) unpleasant condition. Access to treatment is hard (though some would still say it's too easy) and the process of transition can be tortuous, lengthy and expensive (the NHS might cover the cost of a vaginoplasty, but that's typically a small part of the process, albeit one that completes the journey).

    Secondly, the last thing we want to do is to alienate women who are rightly concerned about the message it sends. I know it is easy to gloat at this unhappy intersection of identity politics, but it should be considered outside the traditional partisan left/right divide.
    She sounds as though she'd be quite at home amongst the social reactionaries of the US Republican party:
    “In fifteen years’ time when your daughters miss out on their Uni places cos of men, when your mum is in a hospital ward with men, when the Olympic women’s 100m gold is won by a man and when a fully grown man follows your little girl into the women’s loos at Maccys… remember us.”..
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,218
    Clearly there is discrimination and bigotry which the Labour Party should confront head-on, by adopting all-trans shortlists, preferably in key marginal seats.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,406
    TGOHF said:
    Unlike the Labour party which is full of them
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,406

    Clearly there is discrimination and bigotry which the Labour Party should confront head-on, by adopting all-trans shortlists, preferably in key marginal seats.

    +1. :)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,516
    I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 1,941

    Clearly there is discrimination and bigotry which the Labour Party should confront head-on, by adopting all-trans shortlists, preferably in key marginal seats.

    Or safe seats in Northern working class seats
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,371

    Corbyn is quite bad at day to day politics, so this sort of fall should be expected.

    A point I was about to make....it's not that he's quite bad, it just seems he's not at all interested in the day to day responsibilities of opposition.

    But come the election I doubt there is a single Tory out there who will relish campaigning against him.....

    oh Jeremy corbyn






  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,218

    I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

    Striking that 66% of Norwegians would vote to leave an organisation of which Norway is not a member.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,462
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    On-topic: still very good, but the slide does appear to be there.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,479

    I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

    The number of people placing the health system as a major issue in the UK compared with the other European countries they polled is striking.

    Plus of course it shows a majority for Remain if a referendum were held today...
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,756
    tyson said:

    Corbyn is quite bad at day to day politics, so this sort of fall should be expected.

    A point I was about to make....it's not that he's quite bad, it just seems he's not at all interested in the day to day responsibilities of opposition.

    ...


    I wouldn't disagree with any of that, tyson.

    but then again, I, too, can promise the moon on a stick.

  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,756

    Clearly there is discrimination and bigotry which the Labour Party should confront head-on, by adopting all-trans shortlists, preferably in key marginal seats.

    chuckle.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,479

    I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

    Striking that 66% of Norwegians would vote to leave an organisation of which Norway is not a member.
    I presume the question was Join/Don't join in their case.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,962

    I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

    Striking that 66% of Norwegians would vote to leave an organisation of which Norway is not a member.
    Presumably it's for them actually phrased as a poll on supporting joining or not, like we'd have had for the Euro if there was a corresponding Euro Currency poll prior to Brexit.

    Indeed the figures are in like with other recent Norwegian EU membership polls that typically report approximately 16% in favour of joining and 66% against.

    Which makes you wonder why we shouldn't consider the Norwegian model given how happy they are with it.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    edited January 26

    I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

    Striking that 66% of Norwegians would vote to leave an organisation of which Norway is not a member.
    Presumably it's for them actually phrased as a poll on supporting joining or not, like we'd have had for the Euro if there was a corresponding Euro Currency poll prior to Brexit.

    Indeed the figures are in like with other recent Norwegian EU membership polls that typically report approximately 16% in favour of joining and 66% against.

    Which makes you wonder why we shouldn't consider the Norwegian model given how happy they are with it.
    When you're a small country sitting atop an enormous bucket of oil and even more enormous sovereign wealth fund it's easy to be happy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,846

    They are getting bored. On to the next fad.

    They must be wondering when season II is coming out. Its been a much longer wait than promised. It was supposed to be here by Christmas last year.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,462
    Another strong indicator Sara Khan is a good appointment:
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,218
    edited January 26

    The number of people placing the health system as a major issue in the UK compared with the other European countries they polled is striking.

    Yes, especially since the same UK respondents indicate levels of satisfaction in the national healthcare system (and local facilities) which are the same as or higher than non-UK respondents.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,479
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

    That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour
    Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave
    Given that polling shows a similar percentage of Conservatives support Remain to the number of Labour voters who support Leave, how do you suggest the Conservatives should try to perform the same careful balancing act?
    The Tories are quite clear they want a FTA with the EU while leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement, Labour is still not certain what it wants
    And what if Conservative Remain supports don't want that and would prefer to stay in the single market?
    Well they are likely already voting Labour or LD anyway if they put that as a priority above all given leaving the single market was in the last Tory manifesto and given the only main UK wide party committed to staying permanently in the EU, the LDs, got just 7% that position has few ardent supporters
    Polling shows one fifth of people currently intending to vote Tory think that leaving the EU was the wrong decision. What does your position offer them?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,846
    John_M said:

    I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

    Striking that 66% of Norwegians would vote to leave an organisation of which Norway is not a member.
    Presumably it's for them actually phrased as a poll on supporting joining or not, like we'd have had for the Euro if there was a corresponding Euro Currency poll prior to Brexit.

    Indeed the figures are in like with other recent Norwegian EU membership polls that typically report approximately 16% in favour of joining and 66% against.

    Which makes you wonder why we shouldn't consider the Norwegian model given how happy they are with it.
    When you're a small country sitting atop an enormous bucket of oil and even more enormous sovereign wealth fund it's easy to be happy.
    You think? Cold, dark and the alcohol is ruinously expensive.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,240

    The number of people placing the health system as a major issue in the UK compared with the other European countries they polled is striking.

    Yes, especially since the same UK respondents indicate levels of satisfaction in the national healthcare system (and local facilities) which are the same as or higher than non-UK respondents.
    Maybe because one party likes to keep banging on about how it is on the verge of collapse? Just a thought.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,516
    Sort of on topic, apparently John McDonnell was hinting in Davos today that Labour might back a universal minimum income and that they are actively investigating the idea. I suspect that might go down very well with this section of the electorate.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,371
    Another point is that whilst it was always the prevailing orthodoxy that oppositions needed to be well ahead in the polls to counter an incumbency swingback during an election campaign, I think the opposite is true with Corbyn.

    20% Tory leads vanished into thin air in 2017. And it wasn't the polls overstating things....the council elections the month before showed strong Tory leads.

    If you consider the membership differentials, the role of Momentum, Corbyn's idiosyncratic charisma which lights up during a campaign...2022 is going to be a tough gig for the Tories whoever leads them.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,516
    YouGov should have polled Italy. It would have given some striking results, I imagine.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,087
    felix said:

    TGOHF said:
    Unlike the Labour party which is full of them
    Are you suggesting that no member of the Tories has one? Perhaps you should discuss this with Boris....
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

    That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour
    Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave
    Given that polling shows a similar percentage of Conservatives support Remain to the number of Labour voters who support Leave, how do you suggest the Conservatives should try to perform the same careful balancing act?
    The Tories are quite clear they want a FTA with the EU while leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement, Labour is still not certain what it wants
    And what if Conservative Remain supports don't want that and would prefer to stay in the single market?
    Well they are likely already voting Labour or LD anyway if they put that as a priority above all given leaving the single market was in the last Tory manifesto and given the only main UK wide party committed to staying permanently in the EU, the LDs, got just 7% that position has few ardent supporters
    Polling shows one fifth of people currently intending to vote Tory think that leaving the EU was the wrong decision. What does your position offer them?
    It depends if that's the issue that has most salience with them. Despite appearances to the contrary, I'm not obsessed with the EU; health, housing, defence and the deficit are all things that concern me. It's the nature of the UK political system. I don't get an a la carte political offering, just whatever the Tory (or Labour or Lib Dem) table d'hote is on election day.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 1,941
    tyson said:

    Another point is that whilst it was always the prevailing orthodoxy that oppositions needed to be well ahead in the polls to counter an incumbency swingback during an election campaign, I think the opposite is true with Corbyn.

    20% Tory leads vanished into thin air in 2017. And it wasn't the polls overstating things....the council elections the month before showed strong Tory leads.

    If you consider the membership differentials, the role of Momentum, Corbyn's idiosyncratic charisma which lights up during a campaign...2022 is going to be a tough gig for the Tories whoever leads them.

    Good point Tyson
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,846

    YouGov should have polled Italy. It would have given some striking results, I imagine.

    That would have been much more interesting. The Germans don't seem to be very happy with their government. Not surprising really since they don't really have one but it must make the CSU even keener to avoid another election.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,240
    Blue_rog said:

    tyson said:

    Another point is that whilst it was always the prevailing orthodoxy that oppositions needed to be well ahead in the polls to counter an incumbency swingback during an election campaign, I think the opposite is true with Corbyn.

    20% Tory leads vanished into thin air in 2017. And it wasn't the polls overstating things....the council elections the month before showed strong Tory leads.

    If you consider the membership differentials, the role of Momentum, Corbyn's idiosyncratic charisma which lights up during a campaign...2022 is going to be a tough gig for the Tories whoever leads them.

    Good point Tyson
    Is it? Corbyn surged because the others fell back. Without them to squeeze, where are they going to get additional support from?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,479
    That's Owen "only a madman would leave the single market" Paterson...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,081
    What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,240

    That's Owen "only a madman would leave the single market" Paterson...
    Wasn’t that quote taken out of context?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,218
    Blimey, just noticed the figures in that YouGov survey for 'the level of crime' being a big concern - 5% to 14% for six out of seven countries, 42% for Sweden!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,218
    Jonathan said:

    What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?

    The usual stuff.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,479
    RobD said:

    That's Owen "only a madman would leave the single market" Paterson...
    Wasn’t that quote taken out of context?
    His views in this clip seem clear.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,486
    Jonathan said:

    What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?

    Corn Laws redux?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,846

    Blimey, just noticed the figures in that YouGov survey for 'the level of crime' being a big concern - 5% to 14% for six out of seven countries, 42% for Sweden!

    Its all these crime dramas that they keep producing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,240

    RobD said:

    That's Owen "only a madman would leave the single market" Paterson...
    Wasn’t that quote taken out of context?
    His views in this clip seem clear.
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbQBIbP4XZg
    I’ll take that as a yes ;)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,486

    Blimey, just noticed the figures in that YouGov survey for 'the level of crime' being a big concern - 5% to 14% for six out of seven countries, 42% for Sweden!

    Sweden suffering a crime wave:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-16/crime-wave-engulfs-sweden-as-fraud-sexual-offences-reach-record
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,081
    edited January 26

    Jonathan said:

    What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?

    The usual stuff.
    Seems more than the usual stuff, unless this is the new usual.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,479
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    That's Owen "only a madman would leave the single market" Paterson...
    Wasn’t that quote taken out of context?
    His views in this clip seem clear.
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbQBIbP4XZg
    I’ll take that as a yes ;)
    You should watch the clip because it was in the context of the referendum campaign where he was directly calling for EEA membership and saying that 3-5 million jobs in the UK depend on membership of the single market.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,240

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    That's Owen "only a madman would leave the single market" Paterson...
    Wasn’t that quote taken out of context?
    His views in this clip seem clear.
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbQBIbP4XZg
    I’ll take that as a yes ;)
    You should watch the clip because it was in the context of the referendum campaign where he was directly calling for EEA membership and saying that 3-5 million jobs in the UK depend on membership of the single market.
    He was predicting 5 million job losses if we left the single market? Project fear, eat your heart out.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,135

    Another strong indicator Sara Khan is a good appointment:

    She's being condemned by all the people one would wish to be condemned by.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,462
    Mr. Jonathan, supplies of grilled and smoked baby are running low, and even ministers are finding it difficult to get their fix. Naturally, withdrawal symptoms include tetchiness, leaking to the media, and the insatiable ambition to become Prime Minister.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,218
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?

    The usual stuff.
    Seems more than the usual stuff, unless this is the new usual.
    It probably is the new usual.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,061
    For those who might have forgotten that the Kippers are circling the plughole:

    "Thurrock's 17 UKIP councillors all resign from party"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-42830757
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,462
    Hmm, only a lacklustre single market on the Swedish election currently, but nearer the time it might get going. We'll see how things play out there.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,371

    Jonathan said:

    What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?

    The usual stuff.
    Would you trust them running a piss up in a brewery? Not that I'd trust Corbyn et al either.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,486

    For those who might have forgotten that the Kippers are circling the plughole:

    "Thurrock's 17 UKIP councillors all resign from party"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-42830757

    Brexit seems to have been, as Dangerfield wrote of Edwardian Liberals, "a victory from which the party would never recover”.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,462
    Incidentally, if anyone backed Mr. Herdson's 70-80% for Putin at 5.25, there's a sort-of hedge on Betfair Exchange at 1.64 for over 70%. That can put you green for 0-80% (you might be able to cover that anyway, if you want to be very cautious, as I think 80-90% is 8 on Ladbrokes now).
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,083

    I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

    The last one didn’t attract that much attention; your fevered imagination turned out to be wrong.

    This is margin of error stuff. The final YouGov poll on 23rd June overstated Remain by a net 6 percentage points. Still no sign of anything like the level of Bregret needed to halt Brexit.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,884
    "Theresa May ignored the evidence on stop-and-search. The effect has been criminal" — Fraser Nelson:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/25/theresa-may-ignored-evidence-stop-and-search-effect-has-criminal/
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,434
    DavidL said:

    Blimey, just noticed the figures in that YouGov survey for 'the level of crime' being a big concern - 5% to 14% for six out of seven countries, 42% for Sweden!

    Its all these crime dramas that they keep producing.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organized_crime_in_Sweden

    Sketchy, but the ethnicities are interesting.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,171

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?

    The usual stuff.
    Seems more than the usual stuff, unless this is the new usual.
    It probably is the new usual.
    It is the new normal for Cabinet discussions and disagreements in public.Seems very democratic .
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,083

    Blimey, just noticed the figures in that YouGov survey for 'the level of crime' being a big concern - 5% to 14% for six out of seven countries, 42% for Sweden!

    Sweden suffering a crime wave:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-16/crime-wave-engulfs-sweden-as-fraud-sexual-offences-reach-record
    So letting in hundreds of thousands of young men from societies with very different gender norms and no rule of law hasn’t been an unqualified success? Truly shocking.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 18,479
    RoyalBlue said:

    I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

    The last one didn’t attract that much attention; your fevered imagination turned out to be wrong.

    This is margin of error stuff. The final YouGov poll on 23rd June overstated Remain by a net 6 percentage points. Still no sign of anything like the level of Bregret needed to halt Brexit.
    The 'would you prefer to leave immediately or only after negotiations are complete' question shows some movement versus December.

    Leave immediately: 26% (-4)
    Only after negotiations are complete: 59% (+5)
    Don't know: 15% (-1)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,240

    RoyalBlue said:

    I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

    The last one didn’t attract that much attention; your fevered imagination turned out to be wrong.

    This is margin of error stuff. The final YouGov poll on 23rd June overstated Remain by a net 6 percentage points. Still no sign of anything like the level of Bregret needed to halt Brexit.
    The 'would you prefer to leave immediately or only after negotiations are complete' question shows some movement versus December.

    Leave immediately: 26% (-4)
    Only after negotiations are complete: 59% (+5)
    Don't know: 15% (-1)
    Could be any number of reasons behind that one. Leavers content with the way the negotiations are progressing?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,171
    tyson said:

    Jonathan said:

    What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?

    The usual stuff.
    Would you trust them running a piss up in a brewery? Not that I'd trust Corbyn et al either.
    I think they would be worse, with drink on board.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,744
    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Blimey, just noticed the figures in that YouGov survey for 'the level of crime' being a big concern - 5% to 14% for six out of seven countries, 42% for Sweden!

    Its all these crime dramas that they keep producing.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organized_crime_in_Sweden

    Sketchy, but the ethnicities are interesting.
    All the international baddies in just about every UK crime drama (eg. Spooks, etc) are from: UK, Israel, US, Any Other Long Time Ally of the UK Gone Bad.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,240
    TOPPING said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Blimey, just noticed the figures in that YouGov survey for 'the level of crime' being a big concern - 5% to 14% for six out of seven countries, 42% for Sweden!

    Its all these crime dramas that they keep producing.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organized_crime_in_Sweden

    Sketchy, but the ethnicities are interesting.
    All the international baddies in just about every UK crime drama (eg. Spooks, etc) are from: UK, Israel, US, Any Other Long Time Ally of the UK Gone Bad.
    Well it is fictional, after all ;)
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,980

    Sort of on topic, apparently John McDonnell was hinting in Davos today that Labour might back a universal minimum income and that they are actively investigating the idea. I suspect that might go down very well with this section of the electorate.

    Universal income won't go down well with the working class.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,486

    Sort of on topic, apparently John McDonnell was hinting in Davos today that Labour might back a universal minimum income and that they are actively investigating the idea. I suspect that might go down very well with this section of the electorate.

    Universal income won't go down well with the working class.
    Never mind the bond markets.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,375

    Now this is a scandal:

    Don’t be too hard on US multinational: Treasury to HMRC

    https://waitingfortax.com/2018/01/23/dont-be-too-hard-on-us-multinational-treasury-to-hmrc/

    I always wondered why Amazon sellers seemed to get away with their VAT abuse. Would the gov rather foreign companies succeeded to the detriment of UK business? Do they want small business to have contempt for the gov?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,240
    edited January 26

    Sort of on topic, apparently John McDonnell was hinting in Davos today that Labour might back a universal minimum income and that they are actively investigating the idea. I suspect that might go down very well with this section of the electorate.

    Universal income won't go down well with the working class.
    Never mind the bond markets.
    It’d go down as the biggest election bribe in political history.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,651
    edited January 26

    I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

    Striking that 66% of Norwegians would vote to leave an organisation of which Norway is not a member.
    Presumably it's for them actually phrased as a poll on supporting joining or not, like we'd have had for the Euro if there was a corresponding Euro Currency poll prior to Brexit.

    Indeed the figures are in like with other recent Norwegian EU membership polls that typically report approximately 16% in favour of joining and 66% against.

    Which makes you wonder why we shouldn't consider the Norwegian model given how happy they are with it.
    Norwegians on the whole are happy to be a "vassal state"*. I am not sure we will be.

    * More precisely, the Norwegian populace is happy to outsource a large chunk of its foreign and economic policy to a third party. The famous Norwegian self-discipline and stubbornness are part of this. The government is a bit frustrated by not having a say over rules they implement, but they know they will never get a consensus on membership so they live with it.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,688

    Sort of on topic, apparently John McDonnell was hinting in Davos today that Labour might back a universal minimum income and that they are actively investigating the idea. I suspect that might go down very well with this section of the electorate.

    Universal income won't go down well with the working class.
    Indeed not. It'll be an absolute field day for Tabloids, too.

    I suspect it would solidify the metropolitan/uni seat millenial base but add 3-4% to the Tory column elsewhere.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,607
    Jonathan said:

    What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?

    They are debating Brexit.

    What is going on in Labour that they are not?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,607

    Sort of on topic, apparently John McDonnell was hinting in Davos today that Labour might back a universal minimum income and that they are actively investigating the idea. I suspect that might go down very well with this section of the electorate.

    Universal income won't go down well with the working class.
    Especially when coupled with open borders. It will be like dementia tax cubed with their base.

    Somebody hasn't thought this through!
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,083
    edited January 26
    FF43 said:

    I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

    Striking that 66% of Norwegians would vote to leave an organisation of which Norway is not a member.
    Presumably it's for them actually phrased as a poll on supporting joining or not, like we'd have had for the Euro if there was a corresponding Euro Currency poll prior to Brexit.

    Indeed the figures are in like with other recent Norwegian EU membership polls that typically report approximately 16% in favour of joining and 66% against.

    Which makes you wonder why we shouldn't consider the Norwegian model given how happy they are with it.
    Norwegians on the whole are happy to be a "vassal state"*. I am not sure we will be.

    * More precisely, the Norwegian populace are happy to outsource a large chunk of its foreign policy to a third party. The famous Norwegian self-discipline and stubbornness are part of this. The government is a bit frustrated by not having a say over rules they implement, but they know they will never get a consensus on membership so they live with it.
    Why do you post these falsehoods? Norway has to follow about 25% of EU legislation, and gets its own seat in forums which represent the original source of much supposedly ‘EU’ legislation.

    Your thoughts are 20 years out of date.
This discussion has been closed.