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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why we should focus much more on leader ratings and less on vo

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited April 9 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why we should focus much more on leader ratings and less on voting intention

The publication of two sets of leader ratings by Deltapoll and YouGov over the weekend has put a lot of attention on these regular trackers which the records suggest are a better guide to what will happen in elections than voting intention polls.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,840
    I agree.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,750
    edited April 9
    Leader ratings were certainly the best predictor of who would win in 1992 and 2015 but in 2017 the pollsters were not that far off in predicting the Tory score it was just that they underestimated the Labour score.

    On leader ratings in 2017 Corbyn should have won
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,550
    Exactly. Statement of present objective view trumps statement of future subjective intention.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,526
    If, as we're all agreed, Jezza is the worst political leader in the history of everything, then Theresa's ratings really are supremely shit.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,015
    As events change so can leader ratings.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,067
    FPT - Peter Kellner on the challenges facing a new party:

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/breaking-the-grip
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,526
    I'm starting to think that Jezza will be swept to power. While not obvious just yet, it will become grimly apparent when Theresa's Great Brexit Betrayal causes everything to implode.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,447
    Both leaders are utterly shite.

    FPT - Peter Kellner on the challenges facing a new party:

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/breaking-the-grip

    Yet with leaders so crap in the two main parties, and the political environment so febrile, who knows? Might be worth someone vaguely sane having a punt, what with Tessa the Lesser and Corb the Zorb as their feckless opponents.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    What is the latest for these ratings ?

    Corbyn certainly campaigned very well in 2017.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    Anazina said:

    Both leaders are utterly shite.

    FPT - Peter Kellner on the challenges facing a new party:

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/breaking-the-grip

    Yet with leaders so crap in the two main parties, and the political environment so febrile, who knows? Might be worth someone vaguely sane having a punt, what with Tessa the Lesser and Corb the Zorb as their feckless opponents.
    Uncle Vince says Hi.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,750
    edited April 9

    I'm starting to think that Jezza will be swept to power. While not obvious just yet, it will become grimly apparent when Theresa's Great Brexit Betrayal causes everything to implode.

    Theresa's Canada style FTA post transition period that ends free movement is actually what most of the country wants
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,067
    Agree that 'leader ratings' are a much better predictor - but are they actually 'ratings of the leader' or a proxy for 'what I think about them and their party'. People don't think about politics much, and its much easier to assess an individual than an organisation.

    So, for example, while Mr Corbyn may be having a torrid time over anti-semitism, as long as Labour is not cocking up and is still seen to be doing a reasonable job then their position might not be that badly affected.


    Its always tricky separating cause from effect. In a previous life we had a heck of a job getting consumers to rank toilet soaps 'they're all the same'. But when we asked them 'which one would you put out for guests' big differences became apparent.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,334
    edited April 9
    RoyalBlue said:

    @Anazina - it’s nice to have backing from Sir John Curtice for my earlier post.

    Perhaps next time you’ll engage with my argument, rather than just making an ad hominem attack.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,447
    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    Both leaders are utterly shite.

    FPT - Peter Kellner on the challenges facing a new party:

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/breaking-the-grip

    Yet with leaders so crap in the two main parties, and the political environment so febrile, who knows? Might be worth someone vaguely sane having a punt, what with Tessa the Lesser and Corb the Zorb as their feckless opponents.
    Uncle Vince says Hi.
    Cable the Stable is not the answer.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    Both leaders are utterly shite.

    FPT - Peter Kellner on the challenges facing a new party:

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/breaking-the-grip

    Yet with leaders so crap in the two main parties, and the political environment so febrile, who knows? Might be worth someone vaguely sane having a punt, what with Tessa the Lesser and Corb the Zorb as their feckless opponents.
    Uncle Vince says Hi.
    Cable the Stable is not the answer.
    The quiet man is getting quieter, and he's turning down the volume.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,310
    Pulpstar said:

    What is the latest for these ratings ?

    Corbyn certainly campaigned very well in 2017.

    That's the wisdom now.

    But at the time, plenty of people (and I think I might have been one of them) thought he wasn't campaigning very well at all. There were controversies about numbers and spending etc. that you'd imagine a slicker campaign could have avoided.

    I still think ultimately people liked the manifesto/set of policies and that once they got a chance to hear about it they warmed to Labour.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,447
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    @Anazina - it’s nice to have backing from Sir John Curtice for my earlier post.

    Perhaps next time you’ll engage with my argument, rather than just making an ad hominem attack.
    Wow! Latin!
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,447
    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    Both leaders are utterly shite.

    FPT - Peter Kellner on the challenges facing a new party:

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/breaking-the-grip

    Yet with leaders so crap in the two main parties, and the political environment so febrile, who knows? Might be worth someone vaguely sane having a punt, what with Tessa the Lesser and Corb the Zorb as their feckless opponents.
    Uncle Vince says Hi.
    Cable the Stable is not the answer.
    The quiet man is getting quieter, and he's turning down the volume.
    Lol!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,698
    Xenophobic? surely some mistake as our resident Xenophobia spotter would never spend time there if that was true.......

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,067
    Anazina said:

    Both leaders are utterly shite.

    FPT - Peter Kellner on the challenges facing a new party:

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/breaking-the-grip

    Yet with leaders so crap in the two main parties, and the political environment so febrile, who knows? Might be worth someone vaguely sane having a punt, what with Tessa the Lesser and Corb the Zorb as their feckless opponents.
    I suggest you read the article.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,067
    The EU has accepted that Britain will not be changing its mind on Brexit and may never return to the bloc after next year’s divorce, a leading European commissioner has said, as he warned that the country’s position in the world would be diminished rather than enhanced after its departure......

    The expression of certainty that the UK is leaving reflects the increasingly pragmatic nature of the European commission after months of being told by the prime minister, Theresa May, that Brexit means leaving the customs union and the single market, the cornerstones of the EU.

    But it will be a setback to figures such as Tony Blair and Lord Adonis, who have recently intensified their campaign to reverse Brexit, and to campaigners within the Labour party, including the Brexit shadow secretary, Keir Starmer, who want a vote on the political exit deal in October.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/09/eu-leaders-have-accepted-that-uk-will-not-cancel-brexit?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_parliamentary_election,_2018 48.48% for Orban, stonking result for him, yet all I heard pre-election was about how people were going to vote "tactically" for oppo parties. Doesn't seem to have happened..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    Well Junker doesn't seem to take it very seriously...he has previously joked at an EU event, here comes the dictator, then when Orban arrived to shake hands, repeated the "dictator" nickname with a massive smirk on his face.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    Both leaders are utterly shite.

    FPT - Peter Kellner on the challenges facing a new party:

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/breaking-the-grip

    Yet with leaders so crap in the two main parties, and the political environment so febrile, who knows? Might be worth someone vaguely sane having a punt, what with Tessa the Lesser and Corb the Zorb as their feckless opponents.
    Uncle Vince says Hi.
    Who?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,824
    Given the reference to “record shoes” this much be a TSE thread!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    Off-topic:

    One for the engineering geek. Below is a photo of the mandrel that SpaceX will be using to create the carbon-fibre tanks for their BFS spaceship.



    It's certainly big!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    edited April 9

    Off-topic:

    One for the engineering geek. Below is a photo of the mandrel that SpaceX will be using to create the carbon-fibre tanks for their BFS spaceship.

    www.instagram.com/p/BhVk3y3A0yB/

    It's certainly big!

    Is that a Tesla by any chance? Elon doesn't miss the opportunity for some cross promotional PR.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,178
    On topic, a few observations on the YouGov figures:

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280

    Off-topic:

    One for the engineering geek. Below is a photo of the mandrel that SpaceX will be using to create the carbon-fibre tanks for their BFS spaceship.

    www.instagram.com/p/BhVk3y3A0yB/

    It's certainly big!

    Is that a Tesla by any chance? Elon doesn't miss the opportunity for some cross promotional PR.
    Well, he wouldn't use another car, would he!

    Though the style of SpaceX cars - aside from the original LotusRoadster, leaves me a little cold. They're not sexy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    edited April 9

    Off-topic:

    One for the engineering geek. Below is a photo of the mandrel that SpaceX will be using to create the carbon-fibre tanks for their BFS spaceship.

    www.instagram.com/p/BhVk3y3A0yB/

    It's certainly big!

    Is that a Tesla by any chance? Elon doesn't miss the opportunity for some cross promotional PR.
    Well, he wouldn't use another car, would he!

    Though the style of SpaceX cars - aside from the original LotusRoadster, leaves me a little cold. They're not sexy.
    What's wrong with one of these?

    image
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,174
    Those leadership ratings may be about to take another hit:

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,067
    This is very shoddy reporting:

    Public backs fresh referendum to have 'final say' on terms of Brexit deal

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-theresa-may-final-deal-eu-autumn-negotiations-a8294986.html

    The public don't back a 'fresh referendum' - the oppose another 'vote' - but they do support a 'final say'......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931

    Those leadership ratings may be about to take another hit:

    twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/983341751569211392

    All that is missing is....there are good people on all sides....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,174

    Those leadership ratings may be about to take another hit:

    twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/983341751569211392

    All that is missing is....there are good people on all sides....
    I'm sure Mrs Assad is charming.
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 331
    The fact that Corbyn was at -58 two months out from the election seems to suggest we shouldn't be paying too much attention to approval ratings when we're not real close to the election.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,174

    Off-topic:

    One for the engineering geek. Below is a photo of the mandrel that SpaceX will be using to create the carbon-fibre tanks for their BFS spaceship.

    www.instagram.com/p/BhVk3y3A0yB/

    It's certainly big!

    Is that a Tesla by any chance? Elon doesn't miss the opportunity for some cross promotional PR.
    Well, he wouldn't use another car, would he!

    Though the style of SpaceX cars - aside from the original LotusRoadster, leaves me a little cold. They're not sexy.
    What's wrong with one of these?

    image
    Is that Micheal Stipe?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    edited April 9

    Those leadership ratings may be about to take another hit:

    twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/983341751569211392

    All that is missing is....there are good people on all sides....
    I'm sure Mrs Assad is charming.
    Well Jezza should know,

    image
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,447

    This is very shoddy reporting:

    Public backs fresh referendum to have 'final say' on terms of Brexit deal

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-theresa-may-final-deal-eu-autumn-negotiations-a8294986.html

    The public don't back a 'fresh referendum' - the oppose another 'vote' - but they do support a 'final say'......

    Good gracious the Central Office Brexit Rebuttal Unit is working overtime today!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,174

    Those leadership ratings may be about to take another hit:

    twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/983341751569211392

    All that is missing is....there are good people on all sides....
    I'm sure Mrs Assad is charming.
    Well Jezza should know,

    image
    I think that's Baroness Tongue rather than his wife to be honest.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280

    Off-topic:

    One for the engineering geek. Below is a photo of the mandrel that SpaceX will be using to create the carbon-fibre tanks for their BFS spaceship.

    www.instagram.com/p/BhVk3y3A0yB/

    It's certainly big!

    Is that a Tesla by any chance? Elon doesn't miss the opportunity for some cross promotional PR.
    Well, he wouldn't use another car, would he!

    Though the style of SpaceX cars - aside from the original LotusRoadster, leaves me a little cold. They're not sexy.
    What's wrong with one of these?

    image
    I once saw a little railway permanent way trolley (Wickham) that had been fitted with an engine from one of those. even that puny engine rather overpowered the brakes!

    And as a further aside, here is the inside a Saturn V LOX tank, with people for scale. The BFS will be a metre smaller in diameter:
    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/519743613219175282/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    edited April 9

    Those leadership ratings may be about to take another hit:

    twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/983341751569211392

    All that is missing is....there are good people on all sides....
    I'm sure Mrs Assad is charming.
    Well Jezza should know,

    image
    I think that's Baroness Tongue rather than his wife to be honest.
    I didn't say / think that was his wife in the photo.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,174

    Those leadership ratings may be about to take another hit:

    twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/983341751569211392

    All that is missing is....there are good people on all sides....
    I'm sure Mrs Assad is charming.
    Well Jezza should know,

    image
    I think that's Baroness Tongue rather than his wife to be honest.
    I didn't say / think that was his wife in the photo.
    My mistake. But yep, your original point is well made. No doubt he was trying to foster dialogue etc etc
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,067
    Anazina said:

    This is very shoddy reporting:

    Public backs fresh referendum to have 'final say' on terms of Brexit deal

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-theresa-may-final-deal-eu-autumn-negotiations-a8294986.html

    The public don't back a 'fresh referendum' - the oppose another 'vote' - but they do support a 'final say'......

    Good gracious the Central Office Brexit Rebuttal Unit is working overtime today!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108

    Well Junker doesn't seem to take it very seriously...he has previously joked at an EU event, here comes the dictator, then when Orban arrived to shake hands, repeated the "dictator" nickname with a massive smirk on his face.
    That will be Jean-Claude Juncker with the massive personal popular vote behind him, will it?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,178

    This is very shoddy reporting:

    Public backs fresh referendum to have 'final say' on terms of Brexit deal

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-theresa-may-final-deal-eu-autumn-negotiations-a8294986.html

    The public don't back a 'fresh referendum' - the oppose another 'vote' - but they do support a 'final say'......

    Yes, a great example of how wording affects answers. I really don't see any meaningful difference between the two.

    Not that it matters, other than in any blowback effect once there's no second vote / final say given - but even that is likely to be minimal, given that the 'deal' in the autumn / winter will just be one of several stages in the process.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,178

    Those leadership ratings may be about to take another hit:

    twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/983341751569211392

    All that is missing is....there are good people on all sides....
    I'm sure Mrs Assad is charming.
    Well Jezza should know,

    image
    He's dropped that red jacket more than his understanding for Assad.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    Good afternoon, comrades.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931

    Those leadership ratings may be about to take another hit:

    twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/983341751569211392

    All that is missing is....there are good people on all sides....
    I'm sure Mrs Assad is charming.
    Well Jezza should know,

    image
    I think that's Baroness Tongue rather than his wife to be honest.
    I didn't say / think that was his wife in the photo.
    Mrs Assad is by all accounts a very impressive lady. Highly educated and was very successful in her own right, investment banking I believe. Then she married Mr Assad, gave it all up and now props up the vicious murdering dictator.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,178
    William_H said:

    The fact that Corbyn was at -58 two months out from the election seems to suggest we shouldn't be paying too much attention to approval ratings when we're not real close to the election.

    On the contrary: they matter hugely. Perceptions can, of course, change (though they usually don't), but apart from anything else, Corbyn's dire approval ratings had implications beyond just the next GE, including for the timing and nature of leadership challenges.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    Scott_P said:
    Stop the War response to these incidents and apportioning of blame are as predictable as a Jezza rally blaming the Tories for everything under the sun...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,174

    Those leadership ratings may be about to take another hit:

    twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/983341751569211392

    All that is missing is....there are good people on all sides....
    I'm sure Mrs Assad is charming.
    Well Jezza should know,

    image
    I think that's Baroness Tongue rather than his wife to be honest.
    I didn't say / think that was his wife in the photo.
    Mrs Assad is by all accounts a very impressive lady. Highly educated and was very successful in her own right, investment banking I believe. Then she married Mr Assad, gave it all up and now props up the vicious murdering dictator.
    She now probably has to listen to him moan on all day about all the stress he's under.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,225
    @Dura_Ace Just read your thread header for the previous thread. Excellent article, very many thanks.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931

    Those leadership ratings may be about to take another hit:

    twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/983341751569211392

    All that is missing is....there are good people on all sides....
    I'm sure Mrs Assad is charming.
    Well Jezza should know,

    image
    I think that's Baroness Tongue rather than his wife to be honest.
    I didn't say / think that was his wife in the photo.
    Mrs Assad is by all accounts a very impressive lady. Highly educated and was very successful in her own right, investment banking I believe. Then she married Mr Assad, gave it all up and now props up the vicious murdering dictator.
    She now probably has to listen to him moan on all day about all the stress he's under.
    I wonder, have we stripped her of her British citizenship?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,840
    I have a confession to make.

    Bashar al-Saddat any myself have similar tastes in music.

    Let John Oliver explain.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    edited April 9
    I thought Maomentum was the movement of choice for the millionaire class? Or is it just the kids of the millionaire class?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931

    I have a confession to make.

    Bashar al-Saddat any myself have similar tastes in music.

    Let John Oliver explain.

    Oh god, he doesn't like Steps and VengaBoys does he?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,447
    Do you ever get the feeling a whole bunch of people are scared shitless by this prospect? For what it's worth, I think it's well worth a crack. What we have found in recent times is the outsider wins, the odds against longshot runs out the winner. That's why I'm not overly persuaded by historical data a la Kellner. They should go for it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,840

    I have a confession to make.

    Bashar al-Saddat any myself have similar tastes in music.

    Let John Oliver explain.

    Oh god, he doesn't like Steps and VengaBoys does he?
    We both like LMFAO and Right Said Fred
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    edited April 9

    I have a confession to make.

    Bashar al-Saddat any myself have similar tastes in music.

    Let John Oliver explain.

    Oh god, he doesn't like Steps and VengaBoys does he?
    We both like LMFAO and Right Said Fred
    Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear....shakes head...I suppose it could be worse, he could be into Radiohead.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    edited April 9
    Good afternoon, Miss JGP.

    Mr. Eagles, taking a sprout for a walk is clearly the act of a madman.

    Also, my post-race analysis of a very interesting Bahrain Grand Prix is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis.html

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Urquhart, your post reminds me of the Chuckle Brothers. Speaking of which, if anyone missed their game of 'real life' Hitman from a couple of years back, they really should find it on Youtube. It's the best promotional video for a videogame there's perhaps ever been.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,174
    Anazina said:

    Do you ever get the feeling a whole bunch of people are scared shitless by this prospect? For what it's worth, I think it's well worth a crack. What we have found in recent times is the outsider wins, the odds against longshot runs out the winner. That's why I'm not overly persuaded by historical data a la Kellner. They should go for it.
    You can almost smell the fear that the prize they all now fully expect is about to taken away by a bunch of rich centrist dads.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,447

    Anazina said:

    Do you ever get the feeling a whole bunch of people are scared shitless by this prospect? For what it's worth, I think it's well worth a crack. What we have found in recent times is the outsider wins, the odds against longshot runs out the winner. That's why I'm not overly persuaded by historical data a la Kellner. They should go for it.
    You can almost smell the fear that the prize they all now fully expect is about to taken away by a bunch of rich centrist dads.
    LOL!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,178

    I have a confession to make.

    Bashar al-Saddat any myself have similar tastes in music.

    Let John Oliver explain.

    Oh god, he doesn't like Steps and VengaBoys does he?
    We both like LMFAO and Right Said Fred
    That'll keep you busy for 10 minutes then.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,178
    Anazina said:

    Do you ever get the feeling a whole bunch of people are scared shitless by this prospect? For what it's worth, I think it's well worth a crack. What we have found in recent times is the outsider wins, the odds against longshot runs out the winner. That's why I'm not overly persuaded by historical data a la Kellner. They should go for it.
    For every odds-against longshot that wins, there are an awful lot more that don't.

    A new centrist party might make a breakthrough but it will need:

    1. A capable and effective leader;
    2. Policies - what is it *for*, as well as what is it against;
    3. to decide whether it is truly centrist or is it centre-left;
    4. A sizable and early parliamentary caucus;
    5. Early electoral success in by-elections or local elections;
    6. how it handles the Lib Dems - competition or alliance;
    7. Activists - big donors and MPs don't leaflet or canvass, and it'd start with no data;
    8. Labour to collapse - En March was walking over the corpse of PS; Labour is polling four times what the French socialists did;
    9. The unions to defect: as long as they fund Labour, it will be a meaningful presence;
    10. A great slice of good luck.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    One for Hunchman:

    The truth is out! Instead of dying in a plane crash, Yuri Gagarin was really encased up to his neck in concrete in Belgrade!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-43701570
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,447

    Anazina said:

    Do you ever get the feeling a whole bunch of people are scared shitless by this prospect? For what it's worth, I think it's well worth a crack. What we have found in recent times is the outsider wins, the odds against longshot runs out the winner. That's why I'm not overly persuaded by historical data a la Kellner. They should go for it.
    For every odds-against longshot that wins, there are an awful lot more that don't.

    A new centrist party might make a breakthrough but it will need:

    1. A capable and effective leader;
    2. Policies - what is it *for*, as well as what is it against;
    3. to decide whether it is truly centrist or is it centre-left;
    4. A sizable and early parliamentary caucus;
    5. Early electoral success in by-elections or local elections;
    6. how it handles the Lib Dems - competition or alliance;
    7. Activists - big donors and MPs don't leaflet or canvass, and it'd start with no data;
    8. Labour to collapse - En March was walking over the corpse of PS; Labour is polling four times what the French socialists did;
    9. The unions to defect: as long as they fund Labour, it will be a meaningful presence;
    10. A great slice of good luck.
    Yes good points but I wouldn't bank on 8.

    Taking off the centrist/europhile flanks of Labour and the Tories would be the aim, and could be enough.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364

    Those leadership ratings may be about to take another hit:

    twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/983341751569211392

    All that is missing is....there are good people on all sides....
    I'm sure Mrs Assad is charming.
    Well Jezza should know,

    image
    I think that's Baroness Tongue rather than his wife to be honest.
    I didn't say / think that was his wife in the photo.
    Mrs Assad is by all accounts a very impressive lady. Highly educated and was very successful in her own right, investment banking I believe. Then she married Mr Assad, gave it all up and now props up the vicious murdering dictator.
    Married Dr Assad, surely. He’s an opthalmologist isn’t he?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,698

    Off-topic:

    One for the engineering geek. Below is a photo of the mandrel that SpaceX will be using to create the carbon-fibre tanks for their BFS spaceship.

    www.instagram.com/p/BhVk3y3A0yB/

    It's certainly big!

    Is that a Tesla by any chance? Elon doesn't miss the opportunity for some cross promotional PR.
    Well, he wouldn't use another car, would he!

    Though the style of SpaceX cars - aside from the original LotusRoadster, leaves me a little cold. They're not sexy.
    What's wrong with one of these?

    image
    I once saw a little railway permanent way trolley (Wickham) that had been fitted with an engine from one of those. even that puny engine rather overpowered the brakes!

    And as a further aside, here is the inside a Saturn V LOX tank, with people for scale. The BFS will be a metre smaller in diameter:
    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/519743613219175282/
    Hang on - is that Mike behind the wheel???
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,110

    Anazina said:

    Do you ever get the feeling a whole bunch of people are scared shitless by this prospect? For what it's worth, I think it's well worth a crack. What we have found in recent times is the outsider wins, the odds against longshot runs out the winner. That's why I'm not overly persuaded by historical data a la Kellner. They should go for it.
    For every odds-against longshot that wins, there are an awful lot more that don't.

    A new centrist party might make a breakthrough but it will need:

    1. A capable and effective leader;
    2. Policies - what is it *for*, as well as what is it against;
    3. to decide whether it is truly centrist or is it centre-left;
    4. A sizable and early parliamentary caucus;
    5. Early electoral success in by-elections or local elections;
    6. how it handles the Lib Dems - competition or alliance;
    7. Activists - big donors and MPs don't leaflet or canvass, and it'd start with no data;
    8. Labour to collapse - En March was walking over the corpse of PS; Labour is polling four times what the French socialists did;
    9. The unions to defect: as long as they fund Labour, it will be a meaningful presence;
    10. A great slice of good luck.
    The political opportunity is on the right. Ie kick out immigrants. Housing for local people.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,178
    edited April 9
    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Do you ever get the feeling a whole bunch of people are scared shitless by this prospect? For what it's worth, I think it's well worth a crack. What we have found in recent times is the outsider wins, the odds against longshot runs out the winner. That's why I'm not overly persuaded by historical data a la Kellner. They should go for it.
    For every odds-against longshot that wins, there are an awful lot more that don't.

    A new centrist party might make a breakthrough but it will need:

    1. A capable and effective leader;
    2. Policies - what is it *for*, as well as what is it against;
    3. to decide whether it is truly centrist or is it centre-left;
    4. A sizable and early parliamentary caucus;
    5. Early electoral success in by-elections or local elections;
    6. how it handles the Lib Dems - competition or alliance;
    7. Activists - big donors and MPs don't leaflet or canvass, and it'd start with no data;
    8. Labour to collapse - En March was walking over the corpse of PS; Labour is polling four times what the French socialists did;
    9. The unions to defect: as long as they fund Labour, it will be a meaningful presence;
    10. A great slice of good luck.
    Yes good points but I wouldn't bank on 8.

    Taking off the centrist/europhile flanks of Labour and the Tories would be the aim, and could be enough.
    I don't think it would be. The Europhile flank of Labour is much bigger than the Tory one, so the new party would inevitably lead to the centre-left just on weight of numbers.

    FPTP only leaves space for two big parties, so the new one would have to displace one of the existing ones if it's going to have a future. But how do you replace the Tories, when they've got the 30% of the electorate that is pro-Brexit and right-of-centre under lock and key? You can't - you have to replace Labour. But to do that you really need to target them from day 1, which means you have to be social democrat in nature.

    However, the risk in doing so is that you end up with something like a 41-24-20-7 split, leaving the Tories with a massive majority on a relatively small share.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 795
    edited April 9

    Anazina said:

    Do you ever get the feeling a whole bunch of people are scared shitless by this prospect? For what it's worth, I think it's well worth a crack. What we have found in recent times is the outsider wins, the odds against longshot runs out the winner. That's why I'm not overly persuaded by historical data a la Kellner. They should go for it.
    For every odds-against longshot that wins, there are an awful lot more that don't.

    A new centrist party might make a breakthrough but it will need:

    1. A capable and effective leader;
    2. Policies - what is it *for*, as well as what is it against;
    3. to decide whether it is truly centrist or is it centre-left;
    4. A sizable and early parliamentary caucus;
    5. Early electoral success in by-elections or local elections;
    6. how it handles the Lib Dems - competition or alliance;
    7. Activists - big donors and MPs don't leaflet or canvass, and it'd start with no data;
    8. Labour to collapse - En March was walking over the corpse of PS; Labour is polling four times what the French socialists did;
    9. The unions to defect: as long as they fund Labour, it will be a meaningful presence;
    10. A great slice of good luck.
    Question: did the existence of the SDP assist or hinder Labour's own journey back to the centre in the 80s?

    Frankly, this centrist Dad just wants a social democratic party of power to vote for. I don't care what name that party has or how it comes about. A new party can succeed or fail, it just needs to be pivotal in the process of making that happen.

    What the centre needs is a vision and tbh Prospect isn't going to get any such vision across - it seems to be full of people and policy papers saying 'we need a vision'. A new party might just crystallize some actual ideas. That is one reason why I don't intend to follow SO's call to arms.

    The one thing Mr Herdson misses out re the new party is timing - part of LREMs success was to still be in honeymoon at election time, something the SDP (and Theresa May) flunked.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,617

    If, as we're all agreed, Jezza is the worst political leader in the history of everything, then Theresa's ratings really are supremely shit.

    No he isn't.

    The Marquis of Granby and the Viscount Goderich were both considerably worse than Jezza.

    Not to be confined to one party, convincing cases could be made for Arthur Henderson, Lord Rosebery and Herbert Asquith as well.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,617

    Those leadership ratings may be about to take another hit:

    Please, please tell me that is a fake.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,576

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Do you ever get the feeling a whole bunch of people are scared shitless by this prospect? For what it's worth, I think it's well worth a crack. What we have found in recent times is the outsider wins, the odds against longshot runs out the winner. That's why I'm not overly persuaded by historical data a la Kellner. They should go for it.
    For every odds-against longshot that wins, there are an awful lot more that don't.

    A new centrist party might make a breakthrough but it will need:

    1. A capable and effective leader;
    2. Policies - what is it *for*, as well as what is it against;
    3. to decide whether it is truly centrist or is it centre-left;
    4. A sizable and early parliamentary caucus;
    5. Early electoral success in by-elections or local elections;
    6. how it handles the Lib Dems - competition or alliance;
    7. Activists - big donors and MPs don't leaflet or canvass, and it'd start with no data;
    8. Labour to collapse - En March was walking over the corpse of PS; Labour is polling four times what the French socialists did;
    9. The unions to defect: as long as they fund Labour, it will be a meaningful presence;
    10. A great slice of good luck.
    Yes good points but I wouldn't bank on 8.

    Taking off the centrist/europhile flanks of Labour and the Tories would be the aim, and could be enough.
    I don't think it would be. The Europhile flank of Labour is much bigger than the Tory one, so the new party would inevitably lead to the centre-left just on weight of numbers.

    FPTP only leaves space for two big parties, so the new one would have to displace one of the existing ones if it's going to have a future. But how do you replace the Tories, when they've got the 30% of the electorate that is pro-Brexit and right-of-centre under lock and key? You can't - you have to replace Labour. But to do that you really need to target them from day 1, which means you have to be social democrat in nature.

    However, the risk in doing so is that you end up with something like a 41-24-20-7 split, leaving the Tories with a massive majority on a relatively small share.
    The Conservatives' europhile flank should not be underestimated. Even if we ignore that historically every move towards EU-integration was made by the blue team, surely the Prime Minister and most of the Cabinet were Remainers?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,608

    Good afternoon, Miss JGP.

    Mr. Eagles, taking a sprout for a walk is clearly the act of a madman.

    Also, my post-race analysis of a very interesting Bahrain Grand Prix is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis.html

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Urquhart, your post reminds me of the Chuckle Brothers. Speaking of which, if anyone missed their game of 'real life' Hitman from a couple of years back, they really should find it on Youtube. It's the best promotional video for a videogame there's perhaps ever been.

    Hitman (2016) was a fabulous game. I must have played through the Paris and Sapienza levels a dozen times each.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    King John was worse. It is hard to find anyone quite so bad. Collectively, the Angeli dynasty might be a good comparison.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,178

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Do you ever get the feeling a whole bunch of people are scared shitless by this prospect? For what it's worth, I think it's well worth a crack. What we have found in recent times is the outsider wins, the odds against longshot runs out the winner. That's why I'm not overly persuaded by historical data a la Kellner. They should go for it.
    For every odds-against longshot that wins, there are an awful lot more that don't.

    A new centrist party might make a breakthrough but it will need:

    1. A capable and effective leader;
    2. Policies - what is it *for*, as well as what is it against;
    3. to decide whether it is truly centrist or is it centre-left;
    4. A sizable and early parliamentary caucus;
    5. Early electoral success in by-elections or local elections;
    6. how it handles the Lib Dems - competition or alliance;
    7. Activists - big donors and MPs don't leaflet or canvass, and it'd start with no data;
    8. Labour to collapse - En March was walking over the corpse of PS; Labour is polling four times what the French socialists did;
    9. The unions to defect: as long as they fund Labour, it will be a meaningful presence;
    10. A great slice of good luck.
    Yes good points but I wouldn't bank on 8.

    Taking off the centrist/europhile flanks of Labour and the Tories would be the aim, and could be enough.
    I don't think it would be. The Europhile flank of Labour is much bigger than the Tory one, so the new party would inevitably lead to the centre-left just on weight of numbers.

    FPTP only leaves space for two big parties, so the new one would have to displace one of the existing ones if it's going to have a future. But how do you replace the Tories, when they've got the 30% of the electorate that is pro-Brexit and right-of-centre under lock and key? You can't - you have to replace Labour. But to do that you really need to target them from day 1, which means you have to be social democrat in nature.

    However, the risk in doing so is that you end up with something like a 41-24-20-7 split, leaving the Tories with a massive majority on a relatively small share.
    The Conservatives' europhile flank should not be underestimated. Even if we ignore that historically every move towards EU-integration was made by the blue team, surely the Prime Minister and most of the Cabinet were Remainers?
    Yes, but not very enthusuastic ones. It's not an issue of sufficient importance for them to be worth jumping ship over. That's not to say that no MP would go - Soubry has made noises along those lines, IIRC - but the numbers would be tiny.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    rcs1000 said:

    Good afternoon, Miss JGP.

    Mr. Eagles, taking a sprout for a walk is clearly the act of a madman.

    Also, my post-race analysis of a very interesting Bahrain Grand Prix is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis.html

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Urquhart, your post reminds me of the Chuckle Brothers. Speaking of which, if anyone missed their game of 'real life' Hitman from a couple of years back, they really should find it on Youtube. It's the best promotional video for a videogame there's perhaps ever been.

    Hitman (2016) was a fabulous game. I must have played through the Paris and Sapienza levels a dozen times each.
    I believe a season two is coming shortly.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077

    Off-topic:

    One for the engineering geek. Below is a photo of the mandrel that SpaceX will be using to create the carbon-fibre tanks for their BFS spaceship.

    www.instagram.com/p/BhVk3y3A0yB/

    It's certainly big!

    Is that a Tesla by any chance? Elon doesn't miss the opportunity for some cross promotional PR.
    Well, he wouldn't use another car, would he!

    Though the style of SpaceX cars - aside from the original LotusRoadster, leaves me a little cold. They're not sexy.
    What's wrong with one of these?

    image
    I once saw a little railway permanent way trolley (Wickham) that had been fitted with an engine from one of those. even that puny engine rather overpowered the brakes!

    And as a further aside, here is the inside a Saturn V LOX tank, with people for scale. The BFS will be a metre smaller in diameter:
    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/519743613219175282/
    Although now not dissimiliar to Saturn V/SLS thrust, the true beauty of the BFS 'system' is the in-orbit fuelling and reusability.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    Mr. 1000, I saw much good coverage, but being an old-fashioned fellow the weird approach to releasing the game put me off.

    Also, surprised to hear (from Mr. Urquhart) there is a second season as I gathered the studio behind it had gone bust/been taken over.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,178
    ydoethur said:

    If, as we're all agreed, Jezza is the worst political leader in the history of everything, then Theresa's ratings really are supremely shit.

    No he isn't.

    The Marquis of Granby and the Viscount Goderich were both considerably worse than Jezza.

    Not to be confined to one party, convincing cases could be made for Arthur Henderson, Lord Rosebery and Herbert Asquith as well.
    You're being unfair on Henderson, apart from his unwillingness to stand down after losing his seat. Also, his first two terms as leader were critical in establishing Labour as a permanent, meaningful parliamentary force and in taking Labour into government at a time when to have stood back on pacifist grounds - as MacDonald did - could have destroyed the movement.

    Lansbury was worse.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584
    Chuka Umunna has accepted Amber Rudd's invitation to join her task force on knife crime.

    Good move by Amber and maybe Chuka is signalling a move away from Corbyn

    A new centre party anyone
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108

    Yes, but not very enthusuastic ones. It's not an issue of sufficient importance for them to be worth jumping ship over. That's not to say that no MP would go - Soubry has made noises along those lines, IIRC - but the numbers would be tiny.

    Especially as the expectation would be that their re-election prospects would get a fair bit better if the left/soft-left/LibDems were fighting amongst themselves. The challenge for the new party would be to burst through that and prove some attraction to the centre-right too. A neat trick. It can be done. But I can't see Tony Blair doing it again.....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364

    King John was worse. It is hard to find anyone quite so bad. Collectively, the Angeli dynasty might be a good comparison.

    I gather that historians are not united on the point
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    Pulpstar said:

    Off-topic:

    One for the engineering geek. Below is a photo of the mandrel that SpaceX will be using to create the carbon-fibre tanks for their BFS spaceship.

    www.instagram.com/p/BhVk3y3A0yB/

    It's certainly big!

    Is that a Tesla by any chance? Elon doesn't miss the opportunity for some cross promotional PR.
    Well, he wouldn't use another car, would he!

    Though the style of SpaceX cars - aside from the original LotusRoadster, leaves me a little cold. They're not sexy.
    What's wrong with one of these?

    image
    I once saw a little railway permanent way trolley (Wickham) that had been fitted with an engine from one of those. even that puny engine rather overpowered the brakes!

    And as a further aside, here is the inside a Saturn V LOX tank, with people for scale. The BFS will be a metre smaller in diameter:
    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/519743613219175282/
    Although now not dissimiliar to Saturn V/SLS thrust, the true beauty of the BFS 'system' is the in-orbit fuelling and reusability.
    Yep. von Braun had plans for Saturn V reuse as well, and Boeing considered a version with wings that would fly back! But the US were not interested - the mission had been accomplished.

    AIUI (and IANAE) the BFS' Achilles heel is that it is fairly inefficient when it comes to deep space travel: it is a system mainly designed to get things efficiently off Earth and into LEO. To be good in deep space, you need to use liquid hydrogen/oxygen - as the SLS and (as recently announced) the New Glenn second stage.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,795
    A reasonably sane NI Unionist (i.e. the kind they don't vote for any more) speaks.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    King Cole, there are some revisionists who think that John being talented at extortion makes up for him being an extortionist. And torturing prisoners (including women/children). And being a bit rapey. And incompetent at war, losing all the continental possessions he inherited. And so hated by his own side they invited the French to invade. And treacherous against his brother, and father (both royal predecessors). And committing nepocide.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,447

    A reasonably sane NI Unionist (i.e. the kind they don't vote for any more) speaks.

    First the Rubicon, then the Foyle.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    edited April 9

    King Cole, there are some revisionists who think that John being talented at extortion makes up for him being an extortionist. And torturing prisoners (including women/children). And being a bit rapey. And incompetent at war, losing all the continental possessions he inherited. And so hated by his own side they invited the French to invade. And treacherous against his brother, and father (both royal predecessors). And committing nepocide.

    Well, while I take Wikipedia with a large pinch of salt..........
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 865
    With respect to the centre party - for any party, surely you start with the vision and then see if you need a new party to carry it out?

    The cry for an alternative "not the others" party is negative rather than positive and I still hold to my views from yesterday - here
This discussion has been closed.