politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters think that Sadiq’s still on course for victory foll

System · April 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters think that Sadiq’s still on course for victory following last night’s TV debate

Khan was pressed hard on the allegations of extremist links which he handled competently. Goldsmith vigorously denied that he’d been running a smear campaign.

Read the full story here

JackW · April 2016

First .... among equals.

JackW · April 2016

Second .... among also-rans.

JackW · April 2016

Third .... time lucky.

CarlottaVance · April 2016

Fourth! Like (not so gorgeous) George (Galloway...)

CarlottaVance · April 2016

FPT: Radio 4 Today

0810

Michael Gove will set out his vision today for why the UK should leave the EU. Speaking on the programme is Michael Gove, justice secretary and co-convenor on the Vote Leave Campaign Committee.

Dominic Grieve is on at 8.50

CarlottaVance · April 2016

From the beginning its been clear the Tories need someone with 'Star Quality' to overcome London's natural Labour Leaning. Goldsmith hasn't got it.....and Khan is a reasonable candidate.

Casino_Royale · April 2016

To be honest I now wonder if the Tories should have picked Syed Kamall.

DavidL · April 2016

It may be quite some time before we see a Tory Mayor again. Like the odd Republican in New York it is possible but it requires someone with a large persona who can reach well beyond the natural reach of his party. Goldsmith really doesn't come close.

Perhaps those who denigrated Boris for only winning narrowly the last time might want to re-evaluate his performance once this massacre is confirmed.

No_Offence_Alan · April 2016

Not in OGH's league, but I bet on Khan in January at 4/7.

TOPPING · April 2016

Casino_Royale said:
To be honest I now wonder if the Tories should have picked Syed Kamall.

Should have been Shaun Bailey.

Innocent_Abroad · April 2016

The Tories really need to get on with abolishing existing social housing tenancies in north, north-west, west and south-west London.

AlastairMeeks · April 2016

Given the recent brouhaha about McDonalds being shunned by Labour, I'm surprised no one anywhere seems to have mentioned this:

http://www.mcspotlight.org/people/interviews/corbyn.html

I expect it's connected in some way.

Casino_Royale · April 2016

DavidL said:
It may be quite some time before we see a Tory Mayor again. Like the odd Republican in New York it is possible but it requires someone with a large persona who can reach well beyond the natural reach of his party. Goldsmith really doesn't come close.

Perhaps those who denigrated Boris for only winning narrowly the last time might want to re-evaluate his performance once this massacre is confirmed.

The demographics aren't in the Tories favour.

What worked for Boris is that he seriously motivated the Tory voters in the outer London boroughs, with whopping turnouts for him in places like Bromley.

And it was still close.

tpfkar · April 2016

Boris should have been persuaded to stand again. He's still not setting the world alight as an MP, but is the perfect ambassador for London. I think he'd have edged Sadiq Khan and made the race competitive in a way that Zac has struggled to. I know his eye is on a bigger prize, but his selfishness is going to hurt the Tories overall - and I doubt he'll get it anyway.

TCPoliticalBetting · April 2016

Starting the referendum campaign early will cost a lot of Conservatives electoral success this May. Political stupidity.

Casino_Royale · April 2016

God, the reporting on George's dodgy dossier today is appalling. The Metro has it as "Brexit would shrink the economy by 6.2%.. by 2030"

Where do they get today's "journalists" from? Are they capable of anything other than copy and pasting quotes, and then editing it to fit into a few paragraphs?

AlastairMeeks · April 2016

TCPoliticalBetting said:
Starting the referendum campaign early will cost a lot of Conservatives electoral success this May. Political stupidity.

I completely agree. I was very surprised when the referendum was called for June. The Tories should have waited for the summer before going nuts.

watford30 · April 2016

TCPoliticalBetting said:
Starting the referendum campaign early will cost a lot of Conservatives electoral success this May. Political stupidity.

And deservedly so. No doubt Osborne thought he was being really clever, but it's likely cost him the leadership too.

Innocent_Abroad · April 2016

tpfkar said:
Boris should have been persuaded to stand again. He's still not setting the world alight as an MP, but is the perfect ambassador for London. I think he'd have edged Sadiq Khan and made the race competitive in a way that Zac has struggled to. I know his eye is on a bigger prize, but his selfishness is going to hurt the Tories overall - and I doubt he'll get it anyway.

He might well be willing to stand again in 2020 after he's lost the Tory leadership race.

JohnO · April 2016

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:
It may be quite some time before we see a Tory Mayor again. Like the odd Republican in New York it is possible but it requires someone with a large persona who can reach well beyond the natural reach of his party. Goldsmith really doesn't come close.

Perhaps those who denigrated Boris for only winning narrowly the last time might want to re-evaluate his performance once this massacre is confirmed.
The demographics aren't in the Tories favour.

What worked for Boris is that he seriously motivated the Tory voters in the outer London boroughs, with whopping turnouts for him in places like Bromley.

And it was still close.

O/T It's some time ago since you asked, but I honestly don't think you should attend that event with Lord Mandelson. If your employers are as dogmatic about about Yes as you say, and if you'll be like a kitty on a hot tin roof in the days before the vote, I can't see any upside but perilously many career risking downsides of your presence. Find or invent a credible excuse or altenative engagement for that night.

SouthamObserver · April 2016

Almost no-one was watching, so the debate will have zero impact. The Standard seems to be getting slightly more Zaccy as the big day approaches. That will help him.

Casino_Royale · April 2016

JohnO said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:
It may be quite some time before we see a Tory Mayor again. Like the odd Republican in New York it is possible but it requires someone with a large persona who can reach well beyond the natural reach of his party. Goldsmith really doesn't come close.

Perhaps those who denigrated Boris for only winning narrowly the last time might want to re-evaluate his performance once this massacre is confirmed.
The demographics aren't in the Tories favour.

What worked for Boris is that he seriously motivated the Tory voters in the outer London boroughs, with whopping turnouts for him in places like Bromley.

And it was still close.
O/T It's some time ago since you asked, but I honestly don't think you should attend that event with Lord Mandelson. If your employers are as dogmatic about about Yes as you say, and if you'll be like a kitty on a hot tin roof in the days before the vote, I can't see any upside but perilously many career risking downsides of your presence. Find or invent a credible excuse or altenative engagement for that night.

Thanks John, I still haven't decided.

Proximity of the vote is a key one: any other time I wouldn't mind at all.

Charles · April 2016

Casino_Royale said:
To be honest I now wonder if the Tories should have picked Syed Kamall.

I voted for Syed first.

I actually voted for everyone, including the no-hopers. Just so I could put Zac last. Arrogant b*gger. Behaved appallingly to his wife and children.

Casino_Royale · April 2016

AlastairMeeks said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:
Starting the referendum campaign early will cost a lot of Conservatives electoral success this May. Political stupidity.
I completely agree. I was very surprised when the referendum was called for June. The Tories should have waited for the summer before going nuts.

They didn't want it during the summer in case the migration crisis had reached End Of Days levels.

SouthamObserver · April 2016

On another note, Spurs were awesome last night. It's a shame we threw so many points away at the start of the season - including blowing a lead away to Leicester. But we have a team that is going to compete over the long term. I have not seen it's like in Lilywhite before and it feels soo good.

The league this season is beyond us unless Leicester completely collapse, which seems unlikely given how efficient a unit they are. Unfortunately, their last game is away to Chelsea, who under no circumstances are going to give Spurs a helping hand. Double unfortunately, we also have to play Chelsea. My guess is that they will devote more effort to beating us.

runnymede · April 2016

Casino_Royale said:
God, the reporting on George's dodgy dossier today is appalling. The Metro has it as "Brexit would shrink the economy by 6.2%.. by 2030"

Where do they get today's "journalists" from? Are they capable of anything other than copy and pasting quotes, and then editing it to fit into a few paragraphs?

For the most part, yes.

That is why what purports to be a serious piece of analysis is presented on a huge billboard with a big number written on it. It's one step away from writing it in crayon.

AlastairMeeks · April 2016

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:
Starting the referendum campaign early will cost a lot of Conservatives electoral success this May. Political stupidity.
I completely agree. I was very surprised when the referendum was called for June. The Tories should have waited for the summer before going nuts.
They didn't want it during the summer in case the migration crisis had reached End Of Days levels.

I know. Which is why they should have focussed on solving the migration crisis first. It was both more important and more urgent.

Sean_F · April 2016

Casino_Royale said:

JohnO said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:
It may be quite some time before we see a Tory Mayor again. Like the odd Republican in New York it is possible but it requires someone with a large persona who can reach well beyond the natural reach of his party. Goldsmith really doesn't come close.

Perhaps those who denigrated Boris for only winning narrowly the last time might want to re-evaluate his performance once this massacre is confirmed.
The demographics aren't in the Tories favour.

What worked for Boris is that he seriously motivated the Tory voters in the outer London boroughs, with whopping turnouts for him in places like Bromley.

And it was still close.
O/T It's some time ago since you asked, but I honestly don't think you should attend that event with Lord Mandelson. If your employers are as dogmatic about about Yes as you say, and if you'll be like a kitty on a hot tin roof in the days before the vote, I can't see any upside but perilously many career risking downsides of your presence. Find or invent a credible excuse or altenative engagement for that night.
Thanks John, I still haven't decided.

Proximity of the vote is a key one: any other time I wouldn't mind at all.

Go, get dunk, and take a swing at your boss when he advocates Remain.

Sean_F · April 2016

Casino_Royale said:
To be honest I now wonder if the Tories should have picked Syed Kamall.

He's an unperson, now.

SouthamObserver · April 2016

runnymede said:

Casino_Royale said:
God, the reporting on George's dodgy dossier today is appalling. The Metro has it as "Brexit would shrink the economy by 6.2%.. by 2030"

Where do they get today's "journalists" from? Are they capable of anything other than copy and pasting quotes, and then editing it to fit into a few paragraphs?
For the most part, yes.

That is why what purports to be a serious piece of analysis is presented on a huge billboard with a big number written on it. It's one step away from writing it in crayon.

It was ever thus.

It's not so long ago I was being told that tens of millions of European migrants wanted my job.

Innocent_Abroad · April 2016

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

JohnO said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:
It may be quite some time before we see a Tory Mayor again. Like the odd Republican in New York it is possible but it requires someone with a large persona who can reach well beyond the natural reach of his party. Goldsmith really doesn't come close.

Perhaps those who denigrated Boris for only winning narrowly the last time might want to re-evaluate his performance once this massacre is confirmed.
The demographics aren't in the Tories favour.

What worked for Boris is that he seriously motivated the Tory voters in the outer London boroughs, with whopping turnouts for him in places like Bromley.

And it was still close.
O/T It's some time ago since you asked, but I honestly don't think you should attend that event with Lord Mandelson. If your employers are as dogmatic about about Yes as you say, and if you'll be like a kitty on a hot tin roof in the days before the vote, I can't see any upside but perilously many career risking downsides of your presence. Find or invent a credible excuse or altenative engagement for that night.
Thanks John, I still haven't decided.

Proximity of the vote is a key one: any other time I wouldn't mind at all.
Go, get dunk, and take a swing at your boss when he advocates Remain.

How many bosses have you punched in your time, Sean?

DecrepitJohnL · April 2016

SouthamObserver said:
On another note, Spurs were awesome last night. It's a shame we threw so many points away at the start of the season - including blowing a lead away to Leicester. But we have a team that is going to compete over the long term. I have not seen it's like in Lilywhite before and it feels soo good.

The league this season is beyond us unless Leicester completely collapse, which seems unlikely given how efficient a unit they are. Unfortunately, their last game is away to Chelsea, who under no circumstances are going to give Spurs a helping hand. Double unfortunately, we also have to play Chelsea. My guess is that they will devote more effort to beating us.

Leicester scraped a point thanks to some dodgy refereeing against West Ham, but Vardy being sent off won't help their run-in.

MikeK · April 2016

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:
Starting the referendum campaign early will cost a lot of Conservatives electoral success this May. Political stupidity.
I completely agree. I was very surprised when the referendum was called for June. The Tories should have waited for the summer before going nuts.
They didn't want it during the summer in case the migration crisis had reached End Of Days levels.

What is the month of June if not the start of Summer. Remember blazing June; June is busting out all over?
However it's all a moot point, the only saving grace as far as Vote Leave are concerned is that the Remainers have fired off their massive economic salvoes a trifle early, giving people time to digest how very stupid their whole argument is.

tlg86 · April 2016

runnymede said:

Casino_Royale said:
God, the reporting on George's dodgy dossier today is appalling. The Metro has it as "Brexit would shrink the economy by 6.2%.. by 2030"

Where do they get today's "journalists" from? Are they capable of anything other than copy and pasting quotes, and then editing it to fit into a few paragraphs?
For the most part, yes.

That is why what purports to be a serious piece of analysis is presented on a huge billboard with a big number written on it. It's one step away from writing it in crayon.

When I was at the ONS I practically had to hold the hand a journo from the FT as they wrote a piece on my release. I get that some stats can get quite technical and it's important to understand the nuances of the data but it did surprise me.

Sandpit · April 2016

Morning all, and well done Mike on the 33/1 bet. Sadiq is starting to look like a dead cert now, unless someone can find a smoking gun in his past associations.

The Tories should have gone for a much bigger personality for their candidate, Shaun Bailey would have been much better at covering the centre ground in 2016's multicultural London.

tlg86 · April 2016

SouthamObserver said:
On another note, Spurs were awesome last night. It's a shame we threw so many points away at the start of the season - including blowing a lead away to Leicester. But we have a team that is going to compete over the long term. I have not seen it's like in Lilywhite before and it feels soo good.

The league this season is beyond us unless Leicester completely collapse, which seems unlikely given how efficient a unit they are. Unfortunately, their last game is away to Chelsea, who under no circumstances are going to give Spurs a helping hand. Double unfortunately, we also have to play Chelsea. My guess is that they will devote more effort to beating us.

Chelsea are on the beach, easy three points for Spurs. You might find that West Brom or Southampton at home could be more awkward. But I really fear for Leicester, they must beat Swansea on Sunday and hope they can get something at Man Utd.

runnymede · April 2016

tlg86 said:

runnymede said:

Casino_Royale said:
God, the reporting on George's dodgy dossier today is appalling. The Metro has it as "Brexit would shrink the economy by 6.2%.. by 2030"

Where do they get today's "journalists" from? Are they capable of anything other than copy and pasting quotes, and then editing it to fit into a few paragraphs?
For the most part, yes.

That is why what purports to be a serious piece of analysis is presented on a huge billboard with a big number written on it. It's one step away from writing it in crayon.
When I was at the ONS I practically had to hold the hand a journo from the FT as they wrote a piece on my release. I get that some stats can get quite technical and it's important to understand the nuances of the data but it did surprise me.

An article of mine was recently lifted almost in its entirety, including graphs, by a 'newspaper'. There was a sentence at the start, and one at the end.

Great exposure (for me), but...

watford30 · April 2016

SouthamObserver said:

runnymede said:

Casino_Royale said:
God, the reporting on George's dodgy dossier today is appalling. The Metro has it as "Brexit would shrink the economy by 6.2%.. by 2030"

Where do they get today's "journalists" from? Are they capable of anything other than copy and pasting quotes, and then editing it to fit into a few paragraphs?
For the most part, yes.

That is why what purports to be a serious piece of analysis is presented on a huge billboard with a big number written on it. It's one step away from writing it in crayon.

It was ever thus.

It's not so long ago I was being told that tens of millions of European migrants wanted my job.

Osborne's figures are based on an extra 3 million.

Wanderer · April 2016

SouthamObserver said:
On another note, Spurs were awesome last night. It's a shame we threw so many points away at the start of the season - including blowing a lead away to Leicester. But we have a team that is going to compete over the long term. I have not seen it's like in Lilywhite before and it feels soo good.

The league this season is beyond us unless Leicester completely collapse, which seems unlikely given how efficient a unit they are. Unfortunately, their last game is away to Chelsea, who under no circumstances are going to give Spurs a helping hand. Double unfortunately, we also have to play Chelsea. My guess is that they will devote more effort to beating us.

People have blown bigger leads than Leicester have. It's far from over. (Yes, I am betting against them.)

foxinsoxuk · April 2016

SouthamObserver said:
On another note, Spurs were awesome last night. It's a shame we threw so many points away at the start of the season - including blowing a lead away to Leicester. But we have a team that is going to compete over the long term. I have not seen it's like in Lilywhite before and it feels soo good.

The league this season is beyond us unless Leicester completely collapse, which seems unlikely given how efficient a unit they are. Unfortunately, their last game is away to Chelsea, who under no circumstances are going to give Spurs a helping hand. Double unfortunately, we also have to play Chelsea. My guess is that they will devote more effort to beating us.

West Ham didn't seem inclined to do us any favours, and I wouldn't expect Chelsea to do so either. Spurs are a very good team and worthy rivals, but I think Leicester will still do it. There are some very unpredictable games, with Spurs very good but many teams (like Stoke last night and hopefully Swansea on Sunday) on the beach already.

Losing in a fair contest would be fine, but the shocking refereeing on Sunday would put a very bitter taste to it. Andy Carroll was quite right to say the ref had decided to even the score. West Ham fans were complaining about him nearly as much as the Leicester ones.

Leicester are battlers not bottlers, came back very well despite being 10 men down.

HYUFD · April 2016

Sandpit said:
Morning all, and well done Mike on the 33/1 bet. Sadiq is starting to look like a dead cert now, unless someone can find a smoking gun in his past associations.

The Tories should have gone for a much bigger personality for their candidate, Shaun Bailey would have been much better at covering the centre ground in 2016's multicultural London.

Shaun Bailey lost the one time he stood for Parliament at Hammersmith in 2010

Jonathan · April 2016

"Under the moderation of Andrew Neil the five main contenders in the London Mayoral race took part in the big TV set piece of the election last night."

Surely that should read...

Under the moderation of Andrew Neil the two main contenders (and three others) in the London Mayoral race took part in the big TV set piece of the election last night.

rottenborough · April 2016

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:
Morning all, and well done Mike on the 33/1 bet. Sadiq is starting to look like a dead cert now, unless someone can find a smoking gun in his past associations.

The Tories should have gone for a much bigger personality for their candidate, Shaun Bailey would have been much better at covering the centre ground in 2016's multicultural London.
Shaun Bailey lost the one time he stood for Parliament at Hammersmith in 2010

Don't forget, if you subscribe to the Machiavellian school of politics (as Osborne clearly does), then a win for Labour in the capital helps keep Jezza in post for another year or two at least.

Indigo · April 2016

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:
Starting the referendum campaign early will cost a lot of Conservatives electoral success this May. Political stupidity.
I completely agree. I was very surprised when the referendum was called for June. The Tories should have waited for the summer before going nuts.
They didn't want it during the summer in case the migration crisis had reached End Of Days levels.

So it will just happen after the referendum instead and they will get it in the neck for misleading the public, although compared to all the other misleading going on people might not notice! Also, 10 weeks is plenty of time for that to go sour yet, the weather is just starting to cheer up now.

rottenborough · April 2016

runnymede said:

tlg86 said:

runnymede said:

Casino_Royale said:
God, the reporting on George's dodgy dossier today is appalling. The Metro has it as "Brexit would shrink the economy by 6.2%.. by 2030"

Where do they get today's "journalists" from? Are they capable of anything other than copy and pasting quotes, and then editing it to fit into a few paragraphs?
For the most part, yes.

That is why what purports to be a serious piece of analysis is presented on a huge billboard with a big number written on it. It's one step away from writing it in crayon.
When I was at the ONS I practically had to hold the hand a journo from the FT as they wrote a piece on my release. I get that some stats can get quite technical and it's important to understand the nuances of the data but it did surprise me.
An article of mine was recently lifted almost in its entirety, including graphs, by a 'newspaper'. There was a sentence at the start, and one at the end.

Great exposure (for me), but...

The problem is the time pressure they are under due to constant newsroom cuts.

SouthamObserver · April 2016

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:
On another note, Spurs were awesome last night. It's a shame we threw so many points away at the start of the season - including blowing a lead away to Leicester. But we have a team that is going to compete over the long term. I have not seen it's like in Lilywhite before and it feels soo good.

The league this season is beyond us unless Leicester completely collapse, which seems unlikely given how efficient a unit they are. Unfortunately, their last game is away to Chelsea, who under no circumstances are going to give Spurs a helping hand. Double unfortunately, we also have to play Chelsea. My guess is that they will devote more effort to beating us.
West Ham didn't seem inclined to do us any favours, and I wouldn't expect Chelsea to do so either. Spurs are a very good team and worthy rivals, but I think Leicester will still do it. There are some very unpredictable games, with Spurs very good but many teams (like Stoke last night and hopefully Swansea on Sunday) on the beach already.

Losing in a fair contest would be fine, but the shocking refereeing on Sunday would put a very bitter taste to it. Andy Carroll was quite right to say the ref had decided to even the score. West Ham fans were complaining about him nearly as much as the Leicester ones.

Leicester are battlers not bottlers, came back very well despite being 10 men down.

West Ham had something to play for. Chelsea don't. And their fans hate Spurs like no other team.

Vardy cheated. The ref got his first booking wrong. Everything else seemed to be about right. But having been booked Vardy was very stupid to do what he did. There was no need to dive.

Yep, Leicester are battlers and have superb discipline,. Their efficiency in front of goal is extraordinary. If Tottenham could finish like Leicester do this would all have been over a long time ago. But we can't complain, you took four points off us and thoroughly deserve it. But for the first time in my life I am truly excited about Tottenham's future. It feels very good.

Mortimer · April 2016

Well done Mr. Gove. 2/3rds positive.

What positivity comes from the risky remainers?

SouthamObserver · April 2016

tlg86 said:

SouthamObserver said:
On another note, Spurs were awesome last night. It's a shame we threw so many points away at the start of the season - including blowing a lead away to Leicester. But we have a team that is going to compete over the long term. I have not seen it's like in Lilywhite before and it feels soo good.

The league this season is beyond us unless Leicester completely collapse, which seems unlikely given how efficient a unit they are. Unfortunately, their last game is away to Chelsea, who under no circumstances are going to give Spurs a helping hand. Double unfortunately, we also have to play Chelsea. My guess is that they will devote more effort to beating us.
Chelsea are on the beach, easy three points for Spurs. You might find that West Brom or Southampton at home could be more awkward. But I really fear for Leicester, they must beat Swansea on Sunday and hope they can get something at Man Utd.

Chelsea will throw everything against Spurs. It will give them a level of fan redemption to help deny Spurs the title.

Morris_Dancer · April 2016

Good morning, everyone.

Alas, I did not back the 33/1 tip. Oh well.

Sandpit · April 2016

tlg86 said:

runnymede said:

Casino_Royale said:
God, the reporting on George's dodgy dossier today is appalling. The Metro has it as "Brexit would shrink the economy by 6.2%.. by 2030"

Where do they get today's "journalists" from? Are they capable of anything other than copy and pasting quotes, and then editing it to fit into a few paragraphs?
For the most part, yes.

That is why what purports to be a serious piece of analysis is presented on a huge billboard with a big number written on it. It's one step away from writing it in crayon.
When I was at the ONS I practically had to hold the hand a journo from the FT as they wrote a piece on my release. I get that some stats can get quite technical and it's important to understand the nuances of the data but it did surprise me.

It does seem that those employed by newspapers and TV have a somewhat limited understanding of technical publications, even within their area of expertise.

Maybe one clings to naive assumptions that those writing about eg. economics or finance have at least some experience in the subject!

Charles · April 2016

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:
Morning all, and well done Mike on the 33/1 bet. Sadiq is starting to look like a dead cert now, unless someone can find a smoking gun in his past associations.

The Tories should have gone for a much bigger personality for their candidate, Shaun Bailey would have been much better at covering the centre ground in 2016's multicultural London.
Shaun Bailey lost the one time he stood for Parliament at Hammersmith in 2010

And the feedback has been consistently negative about him since. He wanted to become the Kensington & Chelsea candidate & he was slammed by some of the people I asked about him.

Indigo · April 2016

Competition in the Speccie for any budding poets looking to test their skills in invective expressed as rhyming couplets.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/introducing-the-president-erdogan-offensive-poetry-competition/

Charles · April 2016

SouthamObserver said:

tlg86 said:

SouthamObserver said:
On another note, Spurs were awesome last night. It's a shame we threw so many points away at the start of the season - including blowing a lead away to Leicester. But we have a team that is going to compete over the long term. I have not seen it's like in Lilywhite before and it feels soo good.

The league this season is beyond us unless Leicester completely collapse, which seems unlikely given how efficient a unit they are. Unfortunately, their last game is away to Chelsea, who under no circumstances are going to give Spurs a helping hand. Double unfortunately, we also have to play Chelsea. My guess is that they will devote more effort to beating us.
Chelsea are on the beach, easy three points for Spurs. You might find that West Brom or Southampton at home could be more awkward. But I really fear for Leicester, they must beat Swansea on Sunday and hope they can get something at Man Utd.

Chelsea will throw everything against Spurs. It will give them a level of fan redemption to help deny Spurs the title.

Entirely negative then. I guess Chelsea are Remainers...

Morris_Dancer · April 2016

Not that up on German politics/society, so I was wondering if the potential jailing of Pegida's leader might not make him (ahem) a martyr?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36079533

If he gets imprisoned whilst nobody does for what happened at New Year's Eve in Cologne, that's not a good contrast.

rottenborough · April 2016

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

Alas, I did not back the 33/1 tip. Oh well.

Me neither. Went for Tessa. Boo.

HYUFD · April 2016

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:
Morning all, and well done Mike on the 33/1 bet. Sadiq is starting to look like a dead cert now, unless someone can find a smoking gun in his past associations.

The Tories should have gone for a much bigger personality for their candidate, Shaun Bailey would have been much better at covering the centre ground in 2016's multicultural London.
Shaun Bailey lost the one time he stood for Parliament at Hammersmith in 2010
Don't forget, if you subscribe to the Machiavellian school of politics (as Osborne clearly does), then a win for Labour in the capital helps keep Jezza in post for another year or two at least.

I doubt Cameron and Osborne will be distraught if Zac loses, of course he backs Leave too

Sandpit · April 2016

Charles said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:
Morning all, and well done Mike on the 33/1 bet. Sadiq is starting to look like a dead cert now, unless someone can find a smoking gun in his past associations.

The Tories should have gone for a much bigger personality for their candidate, Shaun Bailey would have been much better at covering the centre ground in 2016's multicultural London.
Shaun Bailey lost the one time he stood for Parliament at Hammersmith in 2010
And the feedback has been consistently negative about him since. He wanted to become the Kensington & Chelsea candidate & he was slammed by some of the people I asked about him.

Given your negative comments from the ground on both Bailey and Goldsmith, who would have been your ideal Tory candidate for MoL given that Boris declined to stand again?

HYUFD · April 2016

Charles said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:
Morning all, and well done Mike on the 33/1 bet. Sadiq is starting to look like a dead cert now, unless someone can find a smoking gun in his past associations.

The Tories should have gone for a much bigger personality for their candidate, Shaun Bailey would have been much better at covering the centre ground in 2016's multicultural London.
Shaun Bailey lost the one time he stood for Parliament at Hammersmith in 2010
And the feedback has been consistently negative about him since. He wanted to become the Kensington & Chelsea candidate & he was slammed by some of the people I asked about him.

I doubt any Tory would win this year, other than maybe Boris if he ran again

LondonBob · April 2016

Mr Trump has made the declassification of the 28 pages of the 9/11 Commission Report an important part of his election campaign. As well as tackling general Gulf sponsorship of terrorism and salafi ideology. This has spurred a bipartisan bill in congress that seeks to open up the possibility of prosecuting the Saudis, potentially they are not the only foreign countries involved, for their sponsorship and organisation of the 9/11 terror attacks. So far it looks like Obama will veto the bill. Potential to be a big election issue.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kristen-breitweiser/heck-whats-a-little-extor_b_9714510.html

runnymede · April 2016

Sandpit said:

tlg86 said:

runnymede said:

Casino_Royale said:
God, the reporting on George's dodgy dossier today is appalling. The Metro has it as "Brexit would shrink the economy by 6.2%.. by 2030"

Where do they get today's "journalists" from? Are they capable of anything other than copy and pasting quotes, and then editing it to fit into a few paragraphs?
For the most part, yes.

That is why what purports to be a serious piece of analysis is presented on a huge billboard with a big number written on it. It's one step away from writing it in crayon.
When I was at the ONS I practically had to hold the hand a journo from the FT as they wrote a piece on my release. I get that some stats can get quite technical and it's important to understand the nuances of the data but it did surprise me.
It does seem that those employed by newspapers and TV have a somewhat limited understanding of technical publications, even within their area of expertise.

Maybe one clings to naive assumptions that those writing about eg. economics or finance have at least some experience in the subject!

That is indeed a naive assumption. Most don't. I'm afraid the standard of economic & financial journalism has deteriorated quite a lot in the last 30 years.

MikeK · April 2016

Just to remind PBers and others that the EU Dream of a European Empire. Was also Hitlers and Fascists dream. Sans Jews of course. Oh and sans Democracy, Labour Unions, Communists, etc., and sans anyone who disagreed with the governing Oligarchy.
https://twitter.com/steven_winstone/status/722314521541484544

rottenborough · April 2016

Sandpit said:

tlg86 said:

runnymede said:

Casino_Royale said:
God, the reporting on George's dodgy dossier today is appalling. The Metro has it as "Brexit would shrink the economy by 6.2%.. by 2030"

Where do they get today's "journalists" from? Are they capable of anything other than copy and pasting quotes, and then editing it to fit into a few paragraphs?
For the most part, yes.

That is why what purports to be a serious piece of analysis is presented on a huge billboard with a big number written on it. It's one step away from writing it in crayon.
When I was at the ONS I practically had to hold the hand a journo from the FT as they wrote a piece on my release. I get that some stats can get quite technical and it's important to understand the nuances of the data but it did surprise me.
It does seem that those employed by newspapers and TV have a somewhat limited understanding of technical publications, even within their area of expertise.

Maybe one clings to naive assumptions that those writing about eg. economics or finance have at least some experience in the subject!

Well most economics journos did economics or similar at uni. But then again Cameron did economics at uni and he has to leave the maths to George, who did modern history :-)

Will Hutton worked as a stockbroker I believe before journalism, so he knows what he's talking about as far as high finance goes.

CarlottaVance · April 2016

Mortimer said:
Well done Mr. Gove. 2/3rds positive.

What positivity comes from the risky remainers?

2/3rds positive? What about freedom of movement from Turkey? Now he's suggested "5Eyes" is under threat - & Robinson now taking him to task over immigration.....if that's Gove (who I generally admire) being positive I shudder to think what a negative pitch would look like....

Norm · April 2016

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:
Morning all, and well done Mike on the 33/1 bet. Sadiq is starting to look like a dead cert now, unless someone can find a smoking gun in his past associations.

The Tories should have gone for a much bigger personality for their candidate, Shaun Bailey would have been much better at covering the centre ground in 2016's multicultural London.
Shaun Bailey lost the one time he stood for Parliament at Hammersmith in 2010
Don't forget, if you subscribe to the Machiavellian school of politics (as Osborne clearly does), then a win for Labour in the capital helps keep Jezza in post for another year or two at least.
I doubt Cameron and Osborne will be distraught if Zac loses, of course he backs Leave too

Also isn't an awkward by-election avoided?

JackW · April 2016

Latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown

33 minutes 33 seconds

runnymede · April 2016

rottenborough said:

Sandpit said:

tlg86 said:

runnymede said:

Casino_Royale said:
God, the reporting on George's dodgy dossier today is appalling. The Metro has it as "Brexit would shrink the economy by 6.2%.. by 2030"

Where do they get today's "journalists" from? Are they capable of anything other than copy and pasting quotes, and then editing it to fit into a few paragraphs?
For the most part, yes.

That is why what purports to be a serious piece of analysis is presented on a huge billboard with a big number written on it. It's one step away from writing it in crayon.
When I was at the ONS I practically had to hold the hand a journo from the FT as they wrote a piece on my release. I get that some stats can get quite technical and it's important to understand the nuances of the data but it did surprise me.
It does seem that those employed by newspapers and TV have a somewhat limited understanding of technical publications, even within their area of expertise.

Maybe one clings to naive assumptions that those writing about eg. economics or finance have at least some experience in the subject!
Well most economics journos did economics or similar at uni. But then again Cameron did economics at uni and he has to leave the maths to George, who did modern history :-)

Will Hutton worked as a stockbroker I believe before journalism, so he knows what he's talking about as far as high finance goes.

No he doesn't/

LondonBob · April 2016

HYUFD said:

Charles said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:
Morning all, and well done Mike on the 33/1 bet. Sadiq is starting to look like a dead cert now, unless someone can find a smoking gun in his past associations.

The Tories should have gone for a much bigger personality for their candidate, Shaun Bailey would have been much better at covering the centre ground in 2016's multicultural London.
Shaun Bailey lost the one time he stood for Parliament at Hammersmith in 2010
And the feedback has been consistently negative about him since. He wanted to become the Kensington & Chelsea candidate & he was slammed by some of the people I asked about him.
I doubt any Tory would win this year, other than maybe Boris if he ran again

Zac is good man, made Richmond an ultra safe seat, but he was never the right person to run for Mayor. Not a big enough personality. That Boris won it twice really emphasises what a formidable politician he is.

Indigo · April 2016

Sandpit said:

It does seem that those employed by newspapers and TV have a somewhat limited understanding of technical publications, even within their area of expertise.

Maybe one clings to naive assumptions that those writing about eg. economics or finance have at least some experience in the subject!

That would be a most unusual departure.

It's bad enough in economics and finance, most publications coverage of technology and science issues is a bad joke. This entry in the Indie last month was particularly embarrassing from their "technical reporter" Doug Bolton (BA English, MA Journalism, few years on a local paper, no technical background whatsoever)

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/whatsapp-group-chats-bigger-maximum-size-256-people-users-a6856491.html

The Maximum number of people you can have in a WhatsApp group chat has increased to 256, rather than 100 as it was before. It's not clear why WhatsApp settled on such an oddly specific number, but it will be good new for users for whom 100 group members is too little"

(It has now been updated after hoots of derision in the comments section)

kle4 · April 2016

doesnt matter if not many people watched the debate - dodo goldsmith needs something big to occur to change things in his favour, and so far he isn't getting it .

Morris_Dancer · April 2016

Mr. Indigo, I'm not a technical or numbers chap, but might that not be because it's 2 to the power of 8?

Edited extra bit: Mr. Runnymede, a former [long-lived] economics thinktank may agree with you on Hutton...

Indigo · April 2016

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Indigo, I'm not a technical or numbers chap, but might that not be because it's 2 to the power of 8?

Indeed. The largest number you can store in 1 (8 bit) byte. (Edit: Before someone quibbles, technically 255 is the largest number storable in 8 bits, but you number the users in your group 0 through to 255)

Morris_Dancer · April 2016

Mr. Indigo, ah, I didn't know that about the byte.

Still have fond memories of my 16-bit Mega Drive. When games were for real men (even if they were children). No saving. If you're five and a half hours into Sonic the Hedgehog with one life and your mum interrupts you and you die, that's it. Done.

RoyalBlue · April 2016

This is depressing:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-3546790/Students-Britain-staying-EU.html

Of those expressing a preference, more than 80% back Remain.

Theuniondivvie · April 2016

MikeK said:
Just to remind PBers and others that the EU Dream of a European Empire. Was also Hitlers and Fascists dream. Sans Jews of course. Oh and sans Democracy, Labour Unions, Communists, etc., and sans anyone who disagreed with the governing Oligarchy.
https://twitter.com/steven_winstone/status/722314521541484544

It appears it was also the dream of a once & future Conservative pm.

'We must build a kind of United States of Europe'

http://tinyurl.com/3lslsze

CarlottaVance · April 2016

@raphaelbehr: Gove's account of UK-EU trade relations post-Brext: Like Canada, but not Canada. Better in indescribable ways. Imagine a good thing. That.

Sandpit · April 2016

Indigo said:

Sandpit said:

It does seem that those employed by newspapers and TV have a somewhat limited understanding of technical publications, even within their area of expertise.

Maybe one clings to naive assumptions that those writing about eg. economics or finance have at least some experience in the subject!
That would be a most unusual departure.

It's bad enough in economics and finance, most publications coverage of technology and science issues is a bad joke. This entry in the Indie last month was particularly embarrassing from their "technical reporter" Doug Bolton (BA English, MA Journalism, few years on a local paper, no technical background whatsoever)

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/whatsapp-group-chats-bigger-maximum-size-256-people-users-a6856491.html
The Maximum number of people you can have in a WhatsApp group chat has increased to 256, rather than 100 as it was before. It's not clear why WhatsApp settled on such an oddly specific number, but it will be good new for users for whom 100 group members is too little"

(It has now been updated after hoots of derision in the comments section)

Ha ha, I assume that the oddly specific number was 100, having no relationship to anything in computing! 256 is the eighth power of 2 and used for loads of applications, but anyone who works with computers knows that

I work in computing and have a keen interest in aviation, do quite often wonder that if the MSM make so many stupid errors in the two subjects I do know something about, what is the quality of the rest of their output on which I rely to inform myself?

Casino_Royale · April 2016

Indigo said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:
Starting the referendum campaign early will cost a lot of Conservatives electoral success this May. Political stupidity.
I completely agree. I was very surprised when the referendum was called for June. The Tories should have waited for the summer before going nuts.
They didn't want it during the summer in case the migration crisis had reached End Of Days levels.
So it will just happen after the referendum instead and they will get it in the neck for misleading the public, although compared to all the other misleading going on people might not notice! Also, 10 weeks is plenty of time for that to go sour yet, the weather is just starting to cheer up now.

One chance.

MikeK · April 2016

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Indigo, ah, I didn't know that about the byte.

Still have fond memories of my 16-bit Mega Drive. When games were for real men (even if they were children). No saving. If you're five and a half hours into Sonic the Hedgehog with one life and your mum interrupts you and you die, that's it. Done.

Never played that game, but no doubt it was fun.
The original WOW was the first real game that I played on a PC, although I did play a black and white game on a Mac Plus in 1986. I forget the name now, it was about finding key objects to go from one level to the next in an Egyptian Pyramid, while being scared of the deadly Mummy finding you. Happy days.

Sandpit · April 2016

TCPoliticalBetting said:
Starting the referendum campaign early will cost a lot of Conservatives electoral success this May. Political stupidity.

Agree completely. Didn't expect the negativity to be continuing through the local election campaign, there must be leave-minded members and activists that can't be arsed with April, preferring to give their limited free time in June.

Innocent_Abroad · April 2016

MikeK said:
Just to remind PBers and others that the EU Dream of a European Empire. Was also Hitlers and Fascists dream. Sans Jews of course. Oh and sans Democracy, Labour Unions, Communists, etc., and sans anyone who disagreed with the governing Oligarchy.

I trust you will re-post this several times a day from now until the polls close

Indigo · April 2016

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Indigo, ah, I didn't know that about the byte.

Still have fond memories of my 16-bit Mega Drive. When games were for real men (even if they were children). No saving. If you're five and a half hours into Sonic the Hedgehog with one life and your mum interrupts you and you die, that's it. Done.

Yes indeed, or the now politically incorrectly named "Jetset Willy" under similar rules, 5 lives (unless you cheat) touch anything moving and you die, no gamesave possible. I have fond memories of Mr Indigo (Snr) being sent out in just after we moved house in the mid 70's to buy some new clothes hangars required by my mother for her unpacking, and coming back with a console like this:

For the princely sum of £35, Mrs Indigo (Snr) was aghast, and even more so when we all stopped helping with the unpacking and went to play Pong!

AlastairMeeks · April 2016

CarlottaVance said:
@raphaelbehr: Gove's account of UK-EU trade relations post-Brext: Like Canada, but not Canada. Better in indescribable ways. Imagine a good thing. That.

A company for carrying out an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.

MikeK · April 2016

RoyalBlue said:
This is depressing:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-3546790/Students-Britain-staying-EU.html

Of those expressing a preference, more than 80% back Remain.

Yes, really depressing. Being a student meant wanting to try something new and rocking the existing boat. Now, seemingly, the Students Union has become a retrograde, almost fascist organisation in it's outlook.

Scott_P · April 2016

Well, quite...

@DPJHodges: Our EU business partners might conclude it's in their interest to keep open their markets. They may not. But that's not sovereignty is it.

Mortimer · April 2016

CarlottaVance said:

Mortimer said:
Well done Mr. Gove. 2/3rds positive.

What positivity comes from the risky remainers?
2/3rds positive? What about freedom of movement from Turkey? Now he's suggested "5Eyes" is under threat - & Robinson now taking him to task over immigration.....if that's Gove (who I generally admire) being positive I shudder to think what a negative pitch would look like....

Would you like a lesson on thirds? Freedom of movement from Turkey would fall into the c.1/3rd of it which was largely highlighting the problems with future EU expansion/integration.

Robinson seized upon the negative first, but to be fair to Gove he made the most attractive pitch to me.

I'm proud to be a Leaver this morning; wish I could say that I'm proud of the way my party's leadership has acted.

Scott_P · April 2016

@CJTerry: "That was a party election broadcast on behalf of Michael Gove." Quality Nick Robinson shade being thrown.

peter_from_putney · April 2016

Assuming Sadiq Khan wins the London Mayoral election, which now appears virtually certain, this must assure Henry G Manson of winning PB.com's 2016 TOTY award, even at this early stage, following his 2013 tip here at 33/1.

Oh wait ......... OGH discontinued the annual POTY and TOTY awards, following some rather unfortunate voting irregularities.

Indigo · April 2016

Sandpit said:
I work in computing and have a keen interest in aviation, do quite often wonder that if the MSM make so many stupid errors in the two subjects I do know something about, what is the quality of the rest of their output on which I rely to inform myself?

Well quite. I fly as well, or used to. I am constantly amazed at the number of aircraft that seem to "plummet" from the sky after their engine fails, as if their wings suddenly disappeared at the same time as their propulsion. The glide ratio of a big jet is typically about 15:1, so if the engine fails at 40,000 it's going to be able to go 100 nautical miles before it reaches the ground, almost half an hour later.

CarlottaVance · April 2016

Hague:

.......British leaders and commentators do not hesitate to hold forth on the foreign policy of the United States: a policy supported by David Cameron, attacked by Jeremy Corbyn, and denounced or questioned by many others with regard to the Middle East, defence spending, drone strikes, the handling of Cuba and scores of other issues. Our Parliament has even held a debate on the deficiencies of Donald Trump.

So it would be a bit rich for us, opining as we do on every aspect of America’s relations with other states, to turn all precious and sensitive when American leaders comment on ours.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/18/barack-obama-is-entitled-to-tell-us-what-america-thinks-about-br

Dominic Grieve taking apart Gove's argument on 5 Eyes and other justice issues.

Scott_P · April 2016

Mortimer said:
Robinson seized upon the negative first, but to be fair to Gove he made the most attractive pitch to me.

@norock: "We could be like Canada" says Gove
"Canada have to pay tariffs"
"We wouldn't have to be like Canada" says Gove

If that's "the most attractive pitch", I have a bridge you may be interested in...

Morris_Dancer · April 2016

Mr. K, may well be part of the social shift due to growing up online. In a world where people are moderated, blocked, reported and can be made to go away by clicking X, and where Twitter/Facebook easily facilitate echo chambers where all share a single opinion, rocking the boat is seen not as an act of rebellion against the Evil Parents' Generation but a way of getting kicked out of your social circle.

That's my guess, anyway. Quite glad to be part of the last generation that grew up without having the internet.

Mr. Meeks, if of mythical beasts we must speak, then where is the protection for the City of London? Presumably it's over there, being carried on the back of that unicorn.

Mr. Indigo, Pong is clearly superior to unpacking.

Mr. K, first games I played were on an Amstrad, on cassette tape. They took 30 minutes to load. Used to put one in then go and read a book for a while.

Morris_Dancer · April 2016

Mr. P, is there a tariff from Iceland to Turkey or anywhere in between? I was under the impression Andrew Neil said there wasn't.

Mortimer · April 2016

Scott_P said:

Mortimer said:
Robinson seized upon the negative first, but to be fair to Gove he made the most attractive pitch to me.
@norock: "We could be like Canada" says Gove
"Canada have to pay tariffs"
"We wouldn't have to be like Canada" says Gove

If that's "the most attractive pitch", I have a bridge you may be interested in...

You do realise that quoting twitter does not win an argument, right?

kle4 · April 2016

CarlottaVance said:
Hague:

.......British leaders and commentators do not hesitate to hold forth on the foreign policy of the United States: a policy supported by David Cameron, attacked by Jeremy Corbyn, and denounced or questioned by many others with regard to the Middle East, defence spending, drone strikes, the handling of Cuba and scores of other issues. Our Parliament has even held a debate on the deficiencies of Donald Trump.

So it would be a bit rich for us, opining as we do on every aspect of America’s relations with other states, to turn all precious and sensitive when American leaders comment on ours.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/18/barack-obama-is-entitled-to-tell-us-what-america-thinks-about-br

Dominic Grieve taking apart Gove's argument on 5 Eyes and other justice issues.

There's a difference to holding forth on the policy of another nation and making a trip and announcement to it to speak directly to the people of that nation about it.

Scott_P · April 2016

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. P, is there a tariff from Iceland to Turkey or anywhere in between? I was under the impression Andrew Neil said there wasn't.

Is Canada anywhere in between Iceland and Turkey?

Indigo · April 2016

Did I hear that the Hon. Dr Tristram Hunt had a bit of a car crash on the Sunday Politics ?

NickPalmer · April 2016

Charles said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:
Morning all, and well done Mike on the 33/1 bet. Sadiq is starting to look like a dead cert now, unless someone can find a smoking gun in his past associations.

The Tories should have gone for a much bigger personality for their candidate, Shaun Bailey would have been much better at covering the centre ground in 2016's multicultural London.
Shaun Bailey lost the one time he stood for Parliament at Hammersmith in 2010
And the feedback has been consistently negative about him since. He wanted to become the Kensington & Chelsea candidate & he was slammed by some of the people I asked about him.

How do you plan to vote yourself in May?

Morris_Dancer · April 2016

Mr. P, you've quite accidentally completely missed the point, namely that *we* are between Iceland and Turkey. Whether Canada pays a tariff isn't my concern, or what this referendum is about.

So, is there a tariff from Iceland to Turkey or anywhere in between?

Mr. kle4, there's also a difference between opining on policy and intervening in an election/referendum.

JackW · April 2016

peter_from_putney said:
Assuming Sadiq Khan wins the London Mayoral election, which now appears virtually certain, this must assure Henry G Manson of winning PB.com's 2016 TOTY award, even at this early stage, following his 2013 tip here at 33/1.

Oh wait ......... OGH discontinued the annual POTY and TOTY awards, following some rather unfortunate voting irregularities.

What could you possibly mean ?? ....

JackW - Undisputed TOTY since the dawn of time .... on PB ....

Innocent_Abroad · April 2016

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. K, first games I played were on an Amstrad, on cassette tape. They took 30 minutes to load. Used to put one in then go and read a book for a while.

I remember, I remember... occasionally the game would actually run...

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