On a somewhat serious point for a moment. There are many people here on both sides who fought hard. I know TSE and Casino_Royale, and many others, have given up their time and have canvassed and campaigned, and that effort should be recognised.
By 6am tomorrow somebody will have lost. I won't patronise you: I hope REMAIN will win. But regardless of who wins, I would like to thank all those here on both sides, REMAIN and LEAVE, who took the time and effort to voice their thoughts and experiences. It would not have been the same without you, and even if you lose, I hope you all go on to greater success in life.
As I've said before 52/48 is pretty much me perfect result, in purely and repulsively selfish terms. A narrow REMAIN win which puts the wind up Brussels, but preserves my personal wealth and the swagger of London. Yay.
I did say I was talking "selfishly".
It's also close enough to say: Who the F knows, which makes the next few hours interesting.
I expect 53/47 REMAIN and I think this really will remake UK and EU politics. Boris cannot be ignored.
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
I would move voting to the weekend, possibly over both days, so that instances like this were rarer.
Spot on', move it to a Sunday and let working people have a level playing field with the OAPs and the unemployed
There's no real reason not to do that is there?
All of the reasons offered as to why it's usually a Thursday are historic and no longer relevant. Given the labour involved, however, Sunday would be a more expensive choice.
It does always amuse me that our stand is "Our elections are always on thursday for historical reasons, we're not totally sure what the reasons were but they were definitely historical".
(Take your pick of early closing day, before payday so people were less likely to be drunk, market day, so that results would be revealed on friday and the government have the weekend to form, avoiding sundays so the church wouldn't have too much influence. Plenty of options).
On a somewhat serious point for a moment. There are many people here on both sides who fought hard. I know TSE and Casino_Royale, and many others, have given up their time and have canvassed and campaigned, and that effort should be recognised.
By 6am tomorrow somebody will have lost. I won't patronise you: I hope REMAIN will win. But regardless of who wins, I would like to thank all those here on both sides, REMAIN and LEAVE, who took the time and effort to voice their thoughts and experiences. It would not have been the same without you, and even if you lose, I hope you all go on to greater success in life.
As I've said before 52/48 is pretty much me perfect result, in purely and repulsively selfish terms. A narrow REMAIN win which puts the wind up Brussels, but preserves my personal wealth and the swagger of London. Yay.
I did say I was talking "selfishly".
It's also close enough to say: Who the F knows, which makes the next few hours interesting.
I expect 53/47 REMAIN and I think this really will remake UK and EU politics. Boris cannot be ignored.
Remain by 1 vote would be the ideal result.
Well, Leave by 1 vote would be the ideal result. But I'd take yours as an acceptable second .
Do pollsters ask about postal votes or just get the VI of the people they contact? The postals, about 25% of the total must give leave a lead before voting started today. If the country did vote 52/48 today that might not be enough for remain.
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
I would move voting to the weekend, possibly over both days, so that instances like this were rarer.
Spot on', move it to a Sunday and let working people have a level playing field with the OAPs and the unemployed
There's no real reason not to do that is there?
All of the reasons offered as to why it's usually a Thursday are historic and no longer relevant. Given the labour involved, however, Sunday would be a more expensive choice.
It does always amuse me that our stand is "Our elections are always on thursday for historical reasons, we're not totally sure what the reasons were but they were definitely historical".
(Take your pick of early closing day, before payday so people were less likely to be drunk, market day, so that results would be revealed on friday and the government have the weekend to form, avoiding sundays so the church wouldn't have too much influence. Plenty of options).
And it's not that historic. 1920-something isn't it? County councils are older.
this is the problem with ids, nothing matters more to him than being out of the eu.... it's shown.
And we now know that the problem with Cameron and Osborne is that nothing matters more to them than being in the EU. Whatever the outcome, this referendum has flushed out the Tories for what they are.
As I've said before 52/48 is pretty much me perfect result, in purely and repulsively selfish terms. A narrow REMAIN win which puts the wind up Brussels, but preserves my personal wealth and the swagger of London. Yay.
I did say I was talking "selfishly".
It's also close enough to say: Who the F knows, which makes the next few hours interesting.
I expect 53/47 REMAIN and I think this really will remake UK and EU politics. Boris cannot be ignored.
Sell sterling, Mr. G.. The economic essentials haven't changed.
Except that by historic standards 1.5 is low. More interesting is the stock market. If remain do win I expect the boost will carry through into early next week, but would expect a selling sweet spot to present itself midweek
@michaelsavage: IDS on calling Osborne Pinocchio: "Did I say that? I don't remember now."
There's going to be a lot of that. #EUref
Yep, shades of Sue Ellen's season 9 shower dream. Or more sinisterly, a touch of 1984. "I have always been in favour of the EU. I have never been against Cameron".
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
I would move voting to the weekend, possibly over both days, so that instances like this were rarer.
Spot on', move it to a Sunday and let working people have a level playing field with the OAPs and the unemployed
There's no real reason not to do that is there?
All of the reasons offered as to why it's usually a Thursday are historic and no longer relevant. Given the labour involved, however, Sunday would be a more expensive choice.
It does always amuse me that our stand is "Our elections are always on thursday for historical reasons, we're not totally sure what the reasons were but they were definitely historical".
(Take your pick of early closing day, before payday so people were less likely to be drunk, market day, so that results would be revealed on friday and the government have the weekend to form, avoiding sundays so the church wouldn't have too much influence. Plenty of options).
Do pollsters ask about postal votes or just get the VI of the people they contact? The postals, about 25% of the total must give leave a lead before voting started today. If the country did vote 52/48 today that might not be enough for remain.
Turnout at that level throws the polls out of the window.
I agree. If turnout is over 80% then we are into uncharted territory.
Anything could happen.
I was pretty confident throughout the GE campaign that Ed Miliband would not endup in Downing St. A mixture of hunch, intuition and anecdotal evidence. I'm not as confident that Remain has won this because there are so many variables.
After hours of relative stability, Betfair went a bit mad with leave price shooting from 8.8 to 16 in a few seconds, before tumbling back down and settling on 11. I got on at 13.5 but it all happened so quickly. 16 would've been insanely handy to trade.
On a somewhat serious point for a moment. There are many people here on both sides who fought hard. I know TSE and Casino_Royale, and many others, have given up their time and have canvassed and campaigned, and that effort should be recognised.
By 6am tomorrow somebody will have lost. I won't patronise you: I hope REMAIN will win. But regardless of who wins, I would like to thank all those here on both sides, REMAIN and LEAVE, who took the time and effort to voice their thoughts and experiences. It would not have been the same without you, and even if you lose, I hope you all go on to greater success in life.
Well said. More than anything else, I've hated what this campaign has brought out in Britain over the past few months - i hope this can be the attitude as we move on from such a divisive referendum.
On a somewhat serious point for a moment. There are many people here on both sides who fought hard. I know TSE and Casino_Royale, and many others, have given up their time and have canvassed and campaigned, and that effort should be recognised.
By 6am tomorrow somebody will have lost. I won't patronise you: I hope REMAIN will win. But regardless of who wins, I would like to thank all those here on both sides, REMAIN and LEAVE, who took the time and effort to voice their thoughts and experiences. It would not have been the same without you, and even if you lose, I hope you all go on to greater success in life.
@davieclegg: Farage has conceded. The stock markets are calm. The bookies have 93% chance of Remain. Downing Street is relaxed. We're staying in the EU.
On a somewhat serious point for a moment. There are many people here on both sides who fought hard. I know TSE and Casino_Royale, and many others, have given up their time and have canvassed and campaigned, and that effort should be recognised.
By 6am tomorrow somebody will have lost. I won't patronise you: I hope REMAIN will win. But regardless of who wins, I would like to thank all those here on both sides, REMAIN and LEAVE, who took the time and effort to voice their thoughts and experiences. It would not have been the same without you, and even if you lose, I hope you all go on to greater success in life.
That is appreciated
Likewise I am Leave 100% but good luck to both sides and I hope whatever the result the debate on PB going forwards is robust but polite
Do pollsters ask about postal votes or just get the VI of the people they contact? The postals, about 25% of the total must give leave a lead before voting started today. If the country did vote 52/48 today that might not be enough for remain.
this is the problem with ids, nothing matters more to him than being out of the eu.... it's shown.
And we now know that the problem with Cameron and Osborne is that nothing matters more to them than being in the EU. Whatever the outcome, this referendum has flushed out the Tories for what they are.
the leave mps who have written to Cameron to stay on include Boris and Gove but they didn't ask IDS to sign it ... there's shades of grey here and IDS is a different shade to those 2 it seems
@davieclegg: Farage has conceded. The stock markets are calm. The bookies have 93% chance of Remain. Downing Street is relaxed. We're staying in the EU.
Surely the polling companies haven't got it wrong again ?
I find it slightly curious that Alex Salmond and Steve Baker MP (VoteLeave) both predicted a few days ago that it would 52% remain - 48% leave. As a mere voter, sometimes you just feel like a pawn in a very large game.
I keep coming back to what Pulpstar said about pollsters weighting by GE voting. This is going to distort the polling heavily in Remains favour. I'm really thinking about increasing my Leave backing - but ugh, can't decide.
@davieclegg: Farage has conceded. The stock markets are calm. The bookies have 93% chance of Remain. Downing Street is relaxed. We're staying in the EU.
I keep coming back to what Pulpstar said about pollsters weighting by GE voting. This is going to distort the polling heavily in Remains favour. I'm really thinking about increasing my Leave backing - but ugh, can't decide.
If you sell on SpreadEx it's basically free. What's the chance of Remain being higher than 55%? And even if Remain win 52:48 you're quids in.
I wonder if we may see an indyref result, where exceptional turnout surprisingly favoured NO, as quiet loyalists showed up and voted.
I think quiet middle classes and lower middle classes have come out and surprisingly favoured IN, because Project Fear.
The difference is that Indyref turnout was higher by the same amounts in each area as at a General or Scottish election. I don't think that will happen here, we could be getting 80% in the WWC shires and sub 70% in Scotland and Metropolitan areas outside London.
That will make a huge distortion to the way polls predict the outcome.
Comments
The referendum is advisory, so no role for the Supreme Court (Parliament could theoretically disregard the outcome)
By 6am tomorrow somebody will have lost. I won't patronise you: I hope REMAIN will win. But regardless of who wins, I would like to thank all those here on both sides, REMAIN and LEAVE, who took the time and effort to voice their thoughts and experiences. It would not have been the same without you, and even if you lose, I hope you all go on to greater success in life.
Remain 52%
Leave 48%
'That's too close for comfort.'
Surely the polling companies haven't got it wrong again ?
It does always amuse me that our stand is "Our elections are always on thursday for historical reasons, we're not totally sure what the reasons were but they were definitely historical".
(Take your pick of early closing day, before payday so people were less likely to be drunk, market day, so that results would be revealed on friday and the government have the weekend to form, avoiding sundays so the church wouldn't have too much influence. Plenty of options).
It's very parochial as you would imagine and great fun because of it!
http://www.gbc.gi/tv/watch-live
There's going to be a lot of that. #EUref
"Live now: Our Neanderthals"
LOL
I'm off to bed soon.
I'll be up @ five as usual.
I guess I'll have to take my "remain" poster down first though.
But I don't think it will be.
But thanks for your input.
No one know UK turnout yet, and won't for hours.
No, no we're not. It's 20 past 10!
Anything could happen.
I was pretty confident throughout the GE campaign that Ed Miliband would not endup in Downing St. A mixture of hunch, intuition and anecdotal evidence. I'm not as confident that Remain has won this because there are so many variables.
Remain now in at 54-55 on SpreadEx. Still a sell.
Probably a mix of both to be honest.
I am Leave 100% but good luck to both sides and I hope whatever the result the debate on PB going forwards is robust but polite
Some hope !!
Male of that what you will
Claims that the exit poll was correct last year.
Prediction: Hung parliament
Result: Conservative majority.
If Leave edge it, you're a rich man.
That will make a huge distortion to the way polls predict the outcome.