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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s challenge in retaining Stoke Central is equal if not
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s challenge in retaining Stoke Central is equal if not greater than in Copeland
I was one of the lucky ones and managed to get £20 on the LDs at Ladbrokes Stoke Central market when the odds were 50/1. That’s now moved in sharply to 7/1 which I think is still reasonable value.
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Is there going to be an independent again? Breeze did in 2015 at 6.8% in a GE.
https://youtu.be/Glrq6G-_L6w
Lab on Betfair v big, I agree with @AlastairMeeks... Never been anyone other than a Labour MP in this seat.. and nearly EVS???
I'd have thought not. First, they might want to keep Mr Corbyn more secure, so they would not want to maximise the chances of another party winning. Secondly and probably more importantly, there are other seats in the area where they would see themselves as the primary challengers rather than UKIP and they wouldn't want to give the signal in those constituencies that UKIP were a local force.
So UKIP are unlikely to get a free pass from the blue team.
Copeland
Tories +27.55
Labour +308.26
Green -95.98
Lib Dem +134.39
UKIP -1222.2
Someone else +276.23
Stoke On Trent North
Tories -109.58
Labour +70.22
Green -109.58
Lib Dem -109.58
UKIP -71.26
Someone else -109.58
DOUBLE !!
Lab Both £20 @ 3.1-1
The area is on the up, but from a very low base. Locals have clearly been disillusioned with Labour for a long time. The council is now run by a Ind/Con/UKIP coalition and I suppose the Ind council leader might fancy a run (I have no in-depth knowledge on this).
"A total of 81,563 people in his constituency voted 'Leave' and just 36,027 voted 'Remain.'"
Can this be right? By my reckoning that is 117,000 odd. Surely that is not one constituency? That is all of Stoke?
I also think Theresa May thinks those votes are her votes (or, at least, they should be) so will fight for them.
Big 300 seat Tory acca
Ta.
The BMG Richmond Park poll had Zac winning by 27%!
If it does cheer you up, BMG are now Labour's in house pollsters
(Sorry Mike Turner and anyone else from BMG reading that, I love you all really)
I think 50/1 for LD's is a great bet given the council election result last night in sunderland. i would unscientifically put them at 3/1. I think that the minority remain vote will turn out religiously for the LD's. It is Labour's to lose and UKIP are the wild cards.
Interesting times indeed.
That reduction might well be lower in core labour seats.
Then add in the fact that there is no main challenger to collect votes against labour - it won't be like Richmond Park where it was clearly a two horse race.
All that makes me think Labour hold.
Lab 4-6
UKIP 5-2
Lib Dems 10-1
Tories 15-1
Greens 100-1
If I was a bookie.
I'm running my own book on this though, so those prices aren't for offer.
https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/jan/13/uber-lyft-cars-public-transport-cities-commuting
"What if Uber kills off public transport rather than cars?"
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Remember Olddham West where leading pundits were saying UKIP was in with a real chance. They came in nearly 40% behind LAB which increased its majority.
At Sleaford in allegedly purple strong Lincs their vote share went down. At Witney they got just over 1/3 of their GE level and lost their deposit.
In local elections they've only retained 40% of the seats defended since last May.
Any ideas on improving the DPI?
It is rare to lose money betting against the kippers.
Their by election results in this parliament
Oldham W 23.4% (+2.8%)
Sheffield B 19.9% (-2.2%)
Ogmore 16.2% (+1.2%)
Sleaford 13.5% (-2.2%)
The remaining by elections are Tooting, Richmond, Witney and the walkover in Batley.
And although everyone here thought they were over priced in the Clacton and Rochester by elections last parliament, they were in fact big value.
Also in Heywood and Middleton where they lost by 600 votes and were 14/1
So to say they are always over priced is just plain wrong
Copeland is a very low chance as they finished a distant third - I've laid them for four figures there.
I think Sunderland last night had some local factors quite honestly...
This looks by far their best shot in a long old time.
"Mr Corbyn is facing up to six by-elections this year, with other contests in Leigh, where Andy Burnham is quitting to stand for mayor of Greater Manchester, and in Liverpool Walton, where Steve Rotheram is leaving to stand for mayor of Liverpool. There are also concerns among the Parliamentary Labour party that two other MPs could stand down this year because of ill health."
Happy to bet with you if you want?
I generally agree though, but it feels dangerous to lay ukip when Labour are weak. Of course the reality is that it's only ever proved dangerous to lay ukip where the Tories are weak.
LDs seem to be doing great things, but its pretty clear that its not Farron, and its pretty hard to work out what it might be.
I think Stoke will finish up as safe Labour - Hunt hardly represented the community, but Copeland I think will go Tory on the basis of Corbyn. In both seats I think 'Any other' at very long odds is a good bet. This is precisely the right electoral time for someone to try to make a splash with a new party.
I find myself with quite a lot of open bets at the moment.
I loved the write up on here when the lib Dems came 2nd in Witney!!! Praise was heaped upon them, yet When Ukip used to do that it was an abject failure!
Left 47.1 (Lab/LD/Grn)
Right 45.2 (Con/UKIP)
Others 7.7
UKIP has yet to prove itself able in FPTP elections. I don't do bets with people on the site after a bad experience which cost me £500 some years ago. Because of who I am I'd have to honour the bet. The arsehole who lost simply disappeared.
And things have moved on.
Corbyn is no longer the fresh new leader. Brexit has been voted for, yet not delivered.
Events of an Article 50 nature could move this result enormously.
IIRC UKIP were saying their private polling they had reduced Labour's lead from something like 35% to like 5% and the momentum was all going to UKIP.
We discussed Derbyshire on here a few weeks ago, it is a curious county.
It stretches from next to Manchester to Nottingham.
https://www.ft.com/content/806f89b2-d976-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e
All of that's before we consider the possibility of any more Labour MPs finding something better to do elsewhere and throwing in the towel. Or any of the more sick or elderly ones succumbing to the scythe of mortality.
One wonders how frequently this has to happen before the public starts to notice the trend, and it becomes a running joke? The one thing more dangerous for Labour than being viewed as incompetent is to be regarded as genuinely ridiculous.
the single market vote isnt small c conservative, it's Big C Corporatist
you think Mrs T didnt call some things wrong ?
Would it change your mind if I offered (as the more anonymous party) to transfer your winnings in advance of the result and relied on you to transfer them back (plus your losses) in the event I'm successful?
I was thinking say £20 or so...
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/819971832900161537
Further information is here:
http://tinyurl.com/zbgf29x
Stoke-on-Trent is not the horrible place it used to be, it has dramatically improved from the hell on earth it was in the 1960s! Still I would not want to live in that city!
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