Yes, that was big news in the region last week. Potentially one of the biggest fields in the world - but it’s going to be difficult and expensive to extract, and is probably several years away.
I’ve said it over and over. We won’t run out of the stuff for generations. There will reach a point where the cost to extract and sell is greater than the alternatives. But nowhere near it yet. Let’s get drilling in Lancashire.
Absolutely. Europe needs to decide if it’s happy relying on Russian gas, if theyre going to get it from Bahrain and Qatar, or if they’re going to start digging themselves. From a political point of view a large amount of Option 3 should be an absolute necessity.
It was notable in the ongoing war of words with Russia that they regard(ed) the mooted pipeline through Syria as a "provocation".
Which is why Russia are desperate to keep Syria in a perpetual state of civil war. A pipeline from the Gulf, through Iraq and Syria to Turkey represents a massive threat to Russia, for whom gas exports account for an ever-increasing amount of their access to hard currency.
The point is whether you accept my premise or not, whether she was risking being deselected over other matters or not, as matters stand we have an MP being threatened with deselection prima facie for attending a protest against racism.
I accept your statement that if my premise is correct you consider what is happening to be wrong. In fact, from your posting history and our previous discussions I would have expected nothing less from you. But do you not think as matters stand this looks very bad?
Sorry wasn't intentional skipping of the question. The problem is I don't accept the premise, if she gets deselected, she likely would have been deselected regardless of the protest. Also I don't accept the idea the protest was just anti racism, clearly part of it was to do with Corbyn and his leadership of the Labour party. Edit: Obviously with the idea being a link between racism and Corbyn's leadership in some way.
If she got deselected (or any of the other things) purely for going on this protest that would be wrong even if the protest wasn't just anti racism but obviously even more so if it was.
You see what a mess you are in. Any MP who went on the demo and gets de-selected leaves the party open to the charge that it is kicking out those opposed to Jew hate racisim.
Yes, that was big news in the region last week. Potentially one of the biggest fields in the world - but it’s going to be difficult and expensive to extract, and is probably several years away.
I’ve said it over and over. We won’t run out of the stuff for generations. There will reach a point where the cost to extract and sell is greater than the alternatives. But nowhere near it yet. Let’s get drilling in Lancashire.
Absolutely. Europe needs to decide if it’s happy relying on Russian gas, if theyre going to get it from Bahrain and Qatar, or if they’re going to start digging themselves. From a political point of view a large amount of Option 3 should be an absolute necessity.
It was notable in the ongoing war of words with Russia that they regard(ed) the mooted pipeline through Syria as a "provocation".
Which is why Russia are desperate to keep Syria in a perpetual state of civil war. A pipeline from the Gulf, through Iraq and Syria to Turkey represents a massive threat to Russia, for whom gas exports account for an ever-increasing amount of their access to hard currency.
Interestingly, Britain has just opened a new Royal Navy station in Bahrain, Prince Andrew cut the ribbon yesterday. Did this even make the news in the UK?
Wouldn't the "LOL I'd love to see how people react to you lefties on the doorsteps" jokes work rather better if it hadn't been proven last June that people react rather well to lefty campaigning, including in the seat next door to Johnny Mercer's?
Yes, that was big news in the region last week. Potentially one of the biggest fields in the world - but it’s going to be difficult and expensive to extract, and is probably several years away.
I’ve said it over and over. We won’t run out of the stuff for generations. There will reach a point where the cost to extract and sell is greater than the alternatives. But nowhere near it yet. Let’s get drilling in Lancashire.
Absolutely. Europe needs to decide if it’s happy relying on Russian gas, if theyre going to get it from Bahrain and Qatar, or if they’re going to start digging themselves. From a political point of view a large amount of Option 3 should be an absolute necessity.
It was notable in the ongoing war of words with Russia that they regard(ed) the mooted pipeline through Syria as a "provocation".
Which is why Russia are desperate to keep Syria in a perpetual state of civil war. A pipeline from the Gulf, through Iraq and Syria to Turkey represents a massive threat to Russia, for whom gas exports account for an ever-increasing amount of their access to hard currency.
I understand - it's more their breathtaking cynicism in claiming the right to cripple anyone else's development, up to an including waging war, should it pose any serious competition to their economic interests. If that is not a form of imperialism, I'm not sure what is.
Wouldn't the "LOL I'd love to see how people react to you lefties on the doorsteps" jokes work rather better if it hadn't been proven last June that people react rather well to lefty campaigning, including in the seat next door to Johnny Mercer's?
But not in Johnny Mercer’s seat. His majority went up 400%.
Yes, that was big news in the region last week. Potentially one of the biggest fields in the world - but it’s going to be difficult and expensive to extract, and is probably several years away.
I’ve said it over and over. We won’t run out of the stuff for generations. There will reach a point where the cost to extract and sell is greater than the alternatives. But nowhere near it yet. Let’s get drilling in Lancashire.
Absolutely. Europe needs to decide if it’s happy relying on Russian gas, if theyre going to get it from Bahrain and Qatar, or if they’re going to start digging themselves. From a political point of view a large amount of Option 3 should be an absolute necessity.
It was notable in the ongoing war of words with Russia that they regard(ed) the mooted pipeline through Syria as a "provocation".
Which is why Russia are desperate to keep Syria in a perpetual state of civil war. A pipeline from the Gulf, through Iraq and Syria to Turkey represents a massive threat to Russia, for whom gas exports account for an ever-increasing amount of their access to hard currency.
Interestingly, Britain has just opened a new Royal Navy station in Bahrain, Prince Andrew cut the ribbon yesterday. Did this even make the news in the UK?
For those of us who took the tip from Mr Meeks on Brexit date , just checked and the price has fallen to 1.62/1.63 on betfair.
Time to start thinking about cashing out?
It dropped last week briefly to 1.54 then back up to 1.74. I did a healthy trade on those numbers, but overall I would not be comfortable backing below 1.50.
a. FB stays in its send-your-PII-to-their-customers business, and then must be regulated and the customers validated precisely as AXCIOM and EXPERIAN in the credit world or doctors and hospitals in the HIPPA healthcare world; or,
b. FB joins Google and ALL OTHER WEB ADVERTISERS in keeping PII private, never letting it out, and anonymously connecting advertisers with its users for their mutual benefit.
I don't get a vote, but I like (b) and see that as the right path for civil society. There is no way that choice (a) is not a loathsome and destructive force in all things—in my personal opinion it seems that making people's pillow-talk into a marketing weapon is indeed a form of evil.
This is why I never use Facebook…
It has always bugged me when people equate what the likes of Google do with Facebook. It's a very different approach to business. I'm fairly comfortable with using Google — now admittedly I probably know a lot more than the average user about what Google is doing with my information and how to limit it — but I would never create a Facebook account.
Yes, that was big news in the region last week. Potentially one of the biggest fields in the world - but it’s going to be difficult and expensive to extract, and is probably several years away.
I’ve said it over and over. We won’t run out of the stuff for generations. There will reach a point where the cost to extract and sell is greater than the alternatives. But nowhere near it yet. Let’s get drilling in Lancashire.
Absolutely. Europe needs to decide if it’s happy relying on Russian gas, if theyre going to get it from Bahrain and Qatar, or if they’re going to start digging themselves. From a political point of view a large amount of Option 3 should be an absolute necessity.
It was notable in the ongoing war of words with Russia that they regard(ed) the mooted pipeline through Syria as a "provocation".
Which is why Russia are desperate to keep Syria in a perpetual state of civil war. A pipeline from the Gulf, through Iraq and Syria to Turkey represents a massive threat to Russia, for whom gas exports account for an ever-increasing amount of their access to hard currency.
Interestingly, Britain has just opened a new Royal Navy station in Bahrain, Prince Andrew cut the ribbon yesterday. Did this even make the news in the UK?
Heard nowt. Considering the coverage withdrawing from east of Suez got in the first place, its remarkable the silence on this:
Britain’s decision to establish its new Royal Navy base in Bahrain – the senior service’s largest operational base outside the UK.
This is the sort of stuff we should be shouting from the rooftops about, at home and abroad. Yet I had to read it in a local paper here in the UAE, having read through all the British papers and seen nothing.
The good news is that the opening has got positive press in the Gulf, where Britain is seen as a key strategic ally and military partner.
Yes, that was big news in the region last week. Potentially one of the biggest fields in the world - but it’s going to be difficult and expensive to extract, and is probably several years away.
I’ve said it over and over. We won’t run out of the stuff for generations. There will reach a point where the cost to extract and sell is greater than the alternatives. But nowhere near it yet. Let’s get drilling in Lancashire.
Absolutely. Europe needs to decide if it’s happy relying on Russian gas, if theyre going to get it from Bahrain and Qatar, or if they’re going to start digging themselves. From a political point of view a large amount of Option 3 should be an absolute necessity.
It was notable in the ongoing war of words with Russia that they regard(ed) the mooted pipeline through Syria as a "provocation".
Which is why Russia are desperate to keep Syria in a perpetual state of civil war. A pipeline from the Gulf, through Iraq and Syria to Turkey represents a massive threat to Russia, for whom gas exports account for an ever-increasing amount of their access to hard currency.
Interestingly, Britain has just opened a new Royal Navy station in Bahrain, Prince Andrew cut the ribbon yesterday. Did this even make the news in the UK?
Wouldn't the "LOL I'd love to see how people react to you lefties on the doorsteps" jokes work rather better if it hadn't been proven last June that people react rather well to lefty campaigning, including in the seat next door to Johnny Mercer's?
With lefties, the Tory voteshare at 42% was the highest since 1983, Corbyn just squeezed the Green and LD vote behind him
Looking at the last polls, the likes of ICM and ComRes gave the Conservatives double figure leads while the final lead was just 2.5%.
I'm not so sure the polling industry was entirely a shambles - but it was a lagging indicator in an unusual election.
From Britainelect's tracker: when the election was announced the poll average was Con 42.4, Lab 26.5. Con got an immediate 4pt bounce which then dribbled away, and they ended up with .... 42.4! Lab however went on an immediate charge, and the increase is basically a perfect straight line, gaining +0.4 points per day for about 6 weeks (continuing past the election too, peaking at 45).
So even if the polls had their issues, as a whole they had the direction of travel right. Do the lessons learned really apply in more normal, static election situations though?
What we really need is a poll from Gold Standard Survation.
With one KABOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!!!!! ICM went from hero to zero on PB!
To be fair to Martin all of the kabooms were justified.
Did the pollsters come up with a reason or explanation as to how some of them got 2017 so badly wrong ?
Looking at the last polls, the likes of ICM and ComRes gave the Conservatives double figure leads while the final lead was just 2.5%. The problem seemed to be the Labour vote sharw which ended at 41% - not the 33-35% predicted by pollsters.
Yup, their samples were correct, it was when they applied their turnout/likelihood to vote filters that they got it so wrong.
Ironically if most of the pollsters had used their 2015 methodologies in June 2017 they'd have got the election spot on or thereabouts.
While had they retrospectively been able to apply their June 2017 methodologies in 2015 they would have called that general election correct too.
The pollsters had the right methodologies, just for the wrong election!
There was a United Russia deputy on the radio this morning. Poland is another suspect for Salisbury according to him. The Litvinenko murder was a "fairy tale". He ended up getting cut off when his ranting became too much.
Wouldn't the "LOL I'd love to see how people react to you lefties on the doorsteps" jokes work rather better if it hadn't been proven last June that people react rather well to lefty campaigning, including in the seat next door to Johnny Mercer's?
With lefties, the Tory voteshare at 42% was the highest since 1983, Corbyn just squeezed the Green and LD vote behind him
Can we stop this tedious crap about vote shares as though it had some meaning. Sure the LAB & CON vote shares went up but that was down to the collapse of UKIP and LDs. It means sod all. TMay still lost David Cameron's hard won majority. The Tory vote share went up 5.8% - a bit of a bugger than that LAB went up by 4 points more.
Interestingly, Britain has just opened a new Royal Navy station in Bahrain, Prince Andrew cut the ribbon yesterday. Did this even make the news in the UK?
The 'old' HMS Jufair is now the US 5th Fleet NSA Bahrain. This 'new' HMS Jufair is much more modest affair with no dock facilities. CENTCOM might give them the WiFi password if they're lucky.
a. FB stays in its send-your-PII-to-their-customers business, and then must be regulated and the customers validated precisely as AXCIOM and EXPERIAN in the credit world or doctors and hospitals in the HIPPA healthcare world; or,
b. FB joins Google and ALL OTHER WEB ADVERTISERS in keeping PII private, never letting it out, and anonymously connecting advertisers with its users for their mutual benefit.
I don't get a vote, but I like (b) and see that as the right path for civil society. There is no way that choice (a) is not a loathsome and destructive force in all things—in my personal opinion it seems that making people's pillow-talk into a marketing weapon is indeed a form of evil.
This is why I never use Facebook…
It has always bugged me when people equate what the likes of Google do with Facebook. It's a very different approach to business. I'm fairly comfortable with using Google — now admittedly I probably know a lot more than the average user about what Google is doing with my information and how to limit it — but I would never create a Facebook account.
I guess the difference is google anonymise and aggregate the data and sell that information with a separation between the data and a verifiable name.
Wouldn't the "LOL I'd love to see how people react to you lefties on the doorsteps" jokes work rather better if it hadn't been proven last June that people react rather well to lefty campaigning, including in the seat next door to Johnny Mercer's?
With lefties, the Tory voteshare at 42% was the highest since 1983, Corbyn just squeezed the Green and LD vote behind him
Can we stop this tedious crap about vote shares as though it had some meaning. Sure the LAB & CON vote shares went up but that was down to the collapse of UKIP and LDs. It means sod all. TMay still lost David Cameron's hard won majority. The Tory vote share went up 5.8% - a bit of a bugger than that LAB went up by 4 points more.
And the reason for that? As I said Corbyn largely squeezed the left of centre anti Tory vote behind him, many who voted Green or LD or even UKIP or SNP in 2015 voted Labour in 2017.
There was almost no net Tory to Labour movement from 2015 to 2017 and helped too by UKIP voters moving to the Tories May still won the second highest number of Tory seats in 2017 for 25 years
Wouldn't the "LOL I'd love to see how people react to you lefties on the doorsteps" jokes work rather better if it hadn't been proven last June that people react rather well to lefty campaigning, including in the seat next door to Johnny Mercer's?
But not in Johnny Mercer’s seat. His majority went up 400%.
Shows the right sort of Tory will still give Labour a right proper working over. It's high time he was given a far higher profile role. Be a cracking Party Chairman, for example.
Can you imagine opening your front door to find Little Owen and Johnny Fucking Mercer on the doorstep? Mr. Humphries and Captain Peacock.
I know Johnny Fucking Mercer stood a great chance in 2015, when I heard from another SW MP that Mercer had personally knocked on every door in the constituency. That's a rare level of commitment in a candidate...
Wouldn't the "LOL I'd love to see how people react to you lefties on the doorsteps" jokes work rather better if it hadn't been proven last June that people react rather well to lefty campaigning, including in the seat next door to Johnny Mercer's?
With lefties, the Tory voteshare at 42% was the highest since 1983, Corbyn just squeezed the Green and LD vote behind him
Can we stop this tedious crap about vote shares as though it had some meaning. Sure the LAB & CON vote shares went up but that was down to the collapse of UKIP and LDs. It means sod all. TMay still lost David Cameron's hard won majority. The Tory vote share went up 5.8% - a bit of a bugger than that LAB went up by 4 points more.
The Lib Dems vote total went from 2,415,916 to 2,371,910 between 2015 and 2017 which whilst not brilliant can hardly be described as a 'collapse'.
Wouldn't the "LOL I'd love to see how people react to you lefties on the doorsteps" jokes work rather better if it hadn't been proven last June that people react rather well to lefty campaigning, including in the seat next door to Johnny Mercer's?
With lefties, the Tory voteshare at 42% was the highest since 1983, Corbyn just squeezed the Green and LD vote behind him
Can we stop this tedious crap about vote shares as though it had some meaning. Sure the LAB & CON vote shares went up but that was down to the collapse of UKIP and LDs. It means sod all. TMay still lost David Cameron's hard won majority. The Tory vote share went up 5.8% - a bit of a bugger than that LAB went up by 4 points more.
The Lib Dems vote total went from 2,415,916 to 2,371,910 between 2015 and 2017 which whilst not brilliant can hardly be described as a 'collapse'.
The LD voteshare in 2017 was the lowest Liberal voteshare since 1959
Wouldn't the "LOL I'd love to see how people react to you lefties on the doorsteps" jokes work rather better if it hadn't been proven last June that people react rather well to lefty campaigning, including in the seat next door to Johnny Mercer's?
But not in Johnny Mercer’s seat. His majority went up 400%.
Shows the right sort of Tory will still give Labour a right proper working over. It's high time he was given a far higher profile role. Be a cracking Party Chairman, for example.
Says so much about Theresa May that she can find a job for Gavin Williamson but not Johnny Mercer.
Wouldn't the "LOL I'd love to see how people react to you lefties on the doorsteps" jokes work rather better if it hadn't been proven last June that people react rather well to lefty campaigning, including in the seat next door to Johnny Mercer's?
With lefties, the Tory voteshare at 42% was the highest since 1983, Corbyn just squeezed the Green and LD vote behind him
Can we stop this tedious crap about vote shares as though it had some meaning. Sure the LAB & CON vote shares went up but that was down to the collapse of UKIP and LDs. It means sod all. TMay still lost David Cameron's hard won majority. The Tory vote share went up 5.8% - a bit of a bugger than that LAB went up by 4 points more.
And the reason for that? As I said Corbyn largely squeezed the left of centre anti Tory vote behind him, many who voted Green or LD or even UKIP or SNP in 2015 voted Labour in 2017.
There was almost no net Tory to Labour movement from 2015 to 2017 and helped too by UKIP voters moving to the Tories May still won the second highest number of Tory seats in 2017 for 25 years
My pet theory is that people were more scared of a large Tory majority than of giving succour to Corbyn, not Labour, Corbyn specifically. But I don't know, no more than either of you do, although I'm prepared to lay that on the line, unlike either of you.
Wouldn't the "LOL I'd love to see how people react to you lefties on the doorsteps" jokes work rather better if it hadn't been proven last June that people react rather well to lefty campaigning, including in the seat next door to Johnny Mercer's?
But not in Johnny Mercer’s seat. His majority went up 400%.
Shows the right sort of Tory will still give Labour a right proper working over. It's high time he was given a far higher profile role. Be a cracking Party Chairman, for example.
Says so much about Theresa May that she can find a job for Gavin Williamson but not Johnny Mercer.
To be fair to Williamson he increased the Tory voteshare by 10% in South Staffordshire in 2017, not much different from the 14% the Tory voteshare went up by in Plymouth Moor View
Wouldn't the "LOL I'd love to see how people react to you lefties on the doorsteps" jokes work rather better if it hadn't been proven last June that people react rather well to lefty campaigning, including in the seat next door to Johnny Mercer's?
With lefties, the Tory voteshare at 42% was the highest since 1983, Corbyn just squeezed the Green and LD vote behind him
Can we stop this tedious crap about vote shares as though it had some meaning. Sure the LAB & CON vote shares went up but that was down to the collapse of UKIP and LDs. It means sod all. TMay still lost David Cameron's hard won majority. The Tory vote share went up 5.8% - a bit of a bugger than that LAB went up by 4 points more.
And the reason for that? As I said Corbyn largely squeezed the left of centre anti Tory vote behind him, many who voted Green or LD or even UKIP or SNP in 2015 voted Labour in 2017.
There was almost no net Tory to Labour movement from 2015 to 2017 and helped too by UKIP voters moving to the Tories May still won the second highest number of Tory seats in 2017 for 25 years
My pet theory is that people were more scared of a large Tory majority than of giving succour to Corbyn, not Labour, Corbyn specifically. But I don't know, no more than either of you do, although I'm prepared to lay that on the line, unlike either of you.
Certainly the undecideds broke for Corbyn, many of whom may not have voted or voted for minor parties in 2015
Wouldn't the "LOL I'd love to see how people react to you lefties on the doorsteps" jokes work rather better if it hadn't been proven last June that people react rather well to lefty campaigning, including in the seat next door to Johnny Mercer's?
With lefties, the Tory voteshare at 42% was the highest since 1983, Corbyn just squeezed the Green and LD vote behind him
Can we stop this tedious crap about vote shares as though it had some meaning. Sure the LAB & CON vote shares went up but that was down to the collapse of UKIP and LDs. It means sod all. TMay still lost David Cameron's hard won majority. The Tory vote share went up 5.8% - a bit of a bugger than that LAB went up by 4 points more.
The Lib Dems vote total went from 2,415,916 to 2,371,910 between 2015 and 2017 which whilst not brilliant can hardly be described as a 'collapse'.
The LD voteshare in 2017 was the lowest Liberal voteshare since 1959
Worth noting that the Liberals only stood in half the seats in the Sixties, so doubled their polling by standing in nearly all by 74. The current rates are even worse in that context.
Cable is pisspoor and needs to be gone by Christmas
A neat illustration of how completely broken the income tax structure is, and that's without even including the effect of Employer's NI or the claw-back of child benefit in the £50K-£60K range, both of which add further twists in terms of distorting behaviour. Sorting out this mess should be the number one priority for future Chancellors, if they really do want to raise more revenue.
As for the new Scottish complication heaped upon the existing UK complication, it's going to be counter-productive.
Wouldn't the "LOL I'd love to see how people react to you lefties on the doorsteps" jokes work rather better if it hadn't been proven last June that people react rather well to lefty campaigning, including in the seat next door to Johnny Mercer's?
With lefties, the Tory voteshare at 42% was the highest since 1983, Corbyn just squeezed the Green and LD vote behind him
Can we stop this tedious crap about vote shares as though it had some meaning. Sure the LAB & CON vote shares went up but that was down to the collapse of UKIP and LDs. It means sod all. TMay still lost David Cameron's hard won majority. The Tory vote share went up 5.8% - a bit of a bugger than that LAB went up by 4 points more.
The Lib Dems vote total went from 2,415,916 to 2,371,910 between 2015 and 2017 which whilst not brilliant can hardly be described as a 'collapse'.
The LD voteshare in 2017 was the lowest Liberal voteshare since 1959
Worth noting that the Liberals only stood in half the seats in the Sixties, so doubled their polling by standing in nearly all by 74. The current rates are even worse in that context.
Cable is pisspoor and needs to be gone by Christmas
Poor local election results for the LDs next month could push him along the way to the exit door
Wouldn't the "LOL I'd love to see how people react to you lefties on the doorsteps" jokes work rather better if it hadn't been proven last June that people react rather well to lefty campaigning, including in the seat next door to Johnny Mercer's?
With lefties, the Tory voteshare at 42% was the highest since 1983, Corbyn just squeezed the Green and LD vote behind him
Can we stop this tedious crap about vote shares as though it had some meaning. Sure the LAB & CON vote shares went up but that was down to the collapse of UKIP and LDs. It means sod all. TMay still lost David Cameron's hard won majority. The Tory vote share went up 5.8% - a bit of a bugger than that LAB went up by 4 points more.
The Lib Dems vote total went from 2,415,916 to 2,371,910 between 2015 and 2017 which whilst not brilliant can hardly be described as a 'collapse'.
The LD voteshare in 2017 was the lowest Liberal voteshare since 1959
Yes but take Kensington say, a high profile seat that Labour took. The Lib Dems added 6.6% to their vote there more than doubling the vote. So there wasn't any Lib Dem squeezing going on there.. My point is the voters the Lib Dems had in 2015 largely seemed to stick with the party in 2017 (With some in seat variation following), a quite different situation to the wholesale UKIP collapse where they lost 3.3 million votes.
A neat illustration of how completely broken the tax system is, and that's without even including the effect of Employer's NI or the claw-back of child benefit in the £50K-£60K range, both of which add further twists in terms of distorting behaviour. Sorting out this mess should be the number one priority for future Chancellors, if they really do want to raise more revenue.
As for the new Scottish complication heaped upon the existing UK complication, it's going to be counter-productive.
It is why I engineer my earnings to fall below the penal rates at just above 100k
Wouldn't the "LOL I'd love to see how people react to you lefties on the doorsteps" jokes work rather better if it hadn't been proven last June that people react rather well to lefty campaigning, including in the seat next door to Johnny Mercer's?
With lefties, the Tory voteshare at 42% was the highest since 1983, Corbyn just squeezed the Green and LD vote behind him
Can we stop this tedious crap about vote shares as though it had some meaning. Sure the LAB & CON vote shares went up but that was down to the collapse of UKIP and LDs. It means sod all. TMay still lost David Cameron's hard won majority. The Tory vote share went up 5.8% - a bit of a bugger than that LAB went up by 4 points more.
The Lib Dems vote total went from 2,415,916 to 2,371,910 between 2015 and 2017 which whilst not brilliant can hardly be described as a 'collapse'.
The LD voteshare in 2017 was the lowest Liberal voteshare since 1959
Yes but take Kensington say, a high profile seat that Labour took. The Lib Dems added 6.6% to their vote there more than doubling the vote. So there wasn't any Lib Dem squeezing going on there.. My point is the voters the Lib Dems had in 2015 largely seemed to stick with the party in 2017 (With some in seat variation following), a quite different situation to the wholesale UKIP collapse where they lost 3.3 million votes.
In a few Remain seats the LD vote went up, in others there was further movement from LD to Labour
A neat illustration of how completely broken the tax system is, and that's without even including the effect of Employer's NI or the claw-back of child benefit in the £50K-£60K range, both of which add further twists in terms of distorting behaviour. Sorting out this mess should be the number one priority for future Chancellors, if they really do want to raise more revenue.
As for the new Scottish complication heaped upon the existing UK complication, it's going to be counter-productive.
It is why I engineer my earnings to fall below the penal rates at just above 100k
Of course, anyone would. even more so if they are owner-directors, who directly see the 13.8% employer's NI on top. If you have any other options, you'd have to be certifiable to pay yourself a £10K bonus if you currently earn £100K - the full marginal rate is 66.6%
A neat illustration of how completely broken the tax system is, and that's without even including the effect of Employer's NI or the claw-back of child benefit in the £50K-£60K range, both of which add further twists in terms of distorting behaviour. Sorting out this mess should be the number one priority for future Chancellors, if they really do want to raise more revenue.
As for the new Scottish complication heaped upon the existing UK complication, it's going to be counter-productive.
It is why I engineer my earnings to fall below the penal rates at just above 100k
What will SNP do if Hammond adds 1p to NICs in autumn?
A neat illustration of how completely broken the tax system is, and that's without even including the effect of Employer's NI or the claw-back of child benefit in the £50K-£60K range, both of which add further twists in terms of distorting behaviour. Sorting out this mess should be the number one priority for future Chancellors, if they really do want to raise more revenue.
As for the new Scottish complication heaped upon the existing UK complication, it's going to be counter-productive.
It is why I engineer my earnings to fall below the penal rates at just above 100k
Of course, anyone would. even more so if they are owner-directors, who directly see the 13.8% employer's NI on top. If you have any other options, you'd have to be certifiable to pay yourself a £10K bonus if you currently earn £100K - the full marginal rate is 66.6%
As much as I agree that it's bonkers, it would be a nice problem to have.
However, I think that IFS chart is wrong at the top end - the marginal rate (excluding employer's NI) is 47% in England/Wales/NI, not 52% as they show. (48% in Scotland).
A neat illustration of how completely broken the tax system is, and that's without even including the effect of Employer's NI or the claw-back of child benefit in the £50K-£60K range, both of which add further twists in terms of distorting behaviour. Sorting out this mess should be the number one priority for future Chancellors, if they really do want to raise more revenue.
As for the new Scottish complication heaped upon the existing UK complication, it's going to be counter-productive.
It is why I engineer my earnings to fall below the penal rates at just above 100k
Of course, anyone would. even more so if they are owner-directors, who directly see the 13.8% employer's NI on top. If you have any other options, you'd have to be certifiable to pay yourself a £10K bonus if you currently earn £100K - the full marginal rate is 66.6%
As much as I agree that it's bonkers, it would be a nice problem to have.
Noone is paying themselves between 100 and 110k from their own company, just split off into dividend at the most tax efficient point.
As much as I agree that it's bonkers, it would be a nice problem to have.
Sure, but from the government's point of view it means potential tax revenue is being lost. They get 66.6% of nothing if someone modifies their behaviour to avoid the cliff-edge.
A neat illustration of how completely broken the tax system is, and that's without even including the effect of Employer's NI or the claw-back of child benefit in the £50K-£60K range, both of which add further twists in terms of distorting behaviour. Sorting out this mess should be the number one priority for future Chancellors, if they really do want to raise more revenue.
As for the new Scottish complication heaped upon the existing UK complication, it's going to be counter-productive.
It is why I engineer my earnings to fall below the penal rates at just above 100k
You and many other professionals no doubt, those high marginal rates are counter- productive and won’t be raising a lot of revenue - not to mention the additional complexity in calculating the tax due.
I remember when I first hit the 40% bracket, that was a huge disincentive at the time to work any additional overtime.
Why does it show a 50p rate? I thought that was cut to 45p.
Someone must have taken out a bet on how much longer and heavier they can make the UK tax code. This link's 9 years old and under Labour it doubled in length:
That was pre-Osborne, who invented these new higher marginal rates which apply to certain salary ranges.
The law says that consumers can't be expected to read extra-long terms and conditions. But accountants make a living advising non-experts and are expected to have read all 17,000 pages of this guff.
A neat illustration of how completely broken the tax system is, and that's without even including the effect of Employer's NI or the claw-back of child benefit in the £50K-£60K range, both of which add further twists in terms of distorting behaviour. Sorting out this mess should be the number one priority for future Chancellors, if they really do want to raise more revenue.
As for the new Scottish complication heaped upon the existing UK complication, it's going to be counter-productive.
It is why I engineer my earnings to fall below the penal rates at just above 100k
What will SNP do if Hammond adds 1p to NICs in autumn?
Demand independence.
Admittedly they will do that anyway, but it's always nice to have a valid excuse.
A neat illustration of how completely broken the tax system is, and that's without even including the effect of Employer's NI or the claw-back of child benefit in the £50K-£60K range, both of which add further twists in terms of distorting behaviour. Sorting out this mess should be the number one priority for future Chancellors, if they really do want to raise more revenue.
As for the new Scottish complication heaped upon the existing UK complication, it's going to be counter-productive.
It is why I engineer my earnings to fall below the penal rates at just above 100k
and why pension contributions are keeping me snowed under!!!
Yes, that was big news in the region last week. Potentially one of the biggest fields in the world - but it’s going to be difficult and expensive to extract, and is probably several years away.
I’ve said it over and over. We won’t run out of the stuff for generations. There will reach a point where the cost to extract and sell is greater than the alternatives. But nowhere near it yet. Let’s get drilling in Lancashire.
Absolutely. Europe needs to decide if it’s happy relying on Russian gas, if theyre going to get it from Bahrain and Qatar, or if they’re going to start digging themselves. From a political point of view a large amount of Option 3 should be an absolute necessity.
It was notable in the ongoing war of words with Russia that they regard(ed) the mooted pipeline through Syria as a "provocation".
Which is why Russia are desperate to keep Syria in a perpetual state of civil war. A pipeline from the Gulf, through Iraq and Syria to Turkey represents a massive threat to Russia, for whom gas exports account for an ever-increasing amount of their access to hard currency.
Interestingly, Britain has just opened a new Royal Navy station in Bahrain, Prince Andrew cut the ribbon yesterday. Did this even make the news in the UK?
If I was in fear for the lives of myself and my family then I would see use of extreme force to defend them justified.
There already is the defence of self defence if your life is threatened by an intruder but this poll result suggests the average voter would go further and legalise extreme force against a burglar even if your life was not in immediate danger and the burglar was unarmed, while I support tougher sentences for burglars and quicker police response times to burglaries I would not go that far personally
If I was in fear for the lives of myself and my family then I would see use of extreme force to defend them justified.
There already is the defence of self defence if your life is threatened by an intruder but this poll result suggests the average voter would go further and legalise extreme force against a burglar even if your life was not in immediate danger and the burglar was unarmed, while I support tougher sentences for burglars and quicker police response times to burglaries I would not go that far personally
Mr. B, I saw that story. However, it follows Monaco (which apparently is run by a different firm) indicating it's going to have grid girls.
Yes, Monaco is unique in being the only event that F1 attends, rather than promotes itself.
I’ve said it over and over. We won’t run out of the stuff for generations. There will reach a point where the cost to extract and sell is greater than the alternatives. But nowhere near it yet. Let’s get drilling in Lancashire.
Absolutely. Europe needs to decide if it’s happy relying on Russian gas, if theyre going to get it from Bahrain and Qatar, or if they’re going to start digging themselves. From a political point of view a large amount of Option 3 should be an absolute necessity.
It was notable in the ongoing war of words with Russia that they regard(ed) the mooted pipeline through Syria as a "provocation".
Which is why Russia are desperate to keep Syria in a perpetual state of civil war. A pipeline from the Gulf, through Iraq and Syria to Turkey represents a massive threat to Russia, for whom gas exports account for an ever-increasing amount of their access to hard currency.
Interestingly, Britain has just opened a new Royal Navy station in Bahrain, Prince Andrew cut the ribbon yesterday. Did this even make the news in the UK?
So WaPo picked up the AP’s wire, but none of the British media seem to be bothered and the MoD & RN themselves have hardly gone out to their way to publicise the opening.
If I was in fear for the lives of myself and my family then I would see use of extreme force to defend them justified.
There already is the defence of self defence if your life is threatened by an intruder but this poll result suggests the average voter would go further and legalise extreme force against a burglar even if your life was not in immediate danger and the burglar was unarmed, while I support tougher sentences for burglars and quicker police response times to burglaries I would not go that far personally
I think the law is actually fine, it’s the behaviour of the police and in particular the CPS that’s the problem. But, that doesn’t make for a sexy tabloid headline.
If I was in fear for the lives of myself and my family then I would see use of extreme force to defend them justified.
There already is the defence of self defence if your life is threatened by an intruder but this poll result suggests the average voter would go further and legalise extreme force against a burglar even if your life was not in immediate danger and the burglar was unarmed, while I support tougher sentences for burglars and quicker police response times to burglaries I would not go that far personally
I would.
Most US states have some version of it - the Stand-Your-Ground laws. See map:
There already is the defence of self defence if your life is threatened by an intruder but this poll result suggests the average voter would go further and legalise extreme force against a burglar even if your life was not in immediate danger and the burglar was unarmed, while I support tougher sentences for burglars and quicker police response times to burglaries I would not go that far personally
Not many burglars would risk breaking into an occupied house in the middle of the night unarmed.
Tougher sentences don't do any good except keep them off the streets for a bit longer. Most of these people have been in and out of jail all their lives.
Therefore in principle I'm with the 61%, though the myriad of grey areas means the law has to be flexible. In principle though if you break into someone's house you deserve all you get including a frightened homeowner hitting you over the head with a hammer. If that principle were enshrined in law it might be a good deterrent though might also lead burglars to tool up with more weapons. You find you get more right wing on this when you have kids.
Comments
The point is whether you accept my premise or not, whether she was risking being deselected over other matters or not, as matters stand we have an MP being threatened with deselection prima facie for attending a protest against racism.
I accept your statement that if my premise is correct you consider what is happening to be wrong. In fact, from your posting history and our previous discussions I would have expected nothing less from you. But do you not think as matters stand this looks very bad?
https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/981998864982036480?s=21
https://twitter.com/johnnymerceruk/status/982135258840580097?s=21
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/982202374075826178
https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/britain-s-new-navy-base-marks-stronger-ties-with-its-gulf-allies-1.719134
If that is not a form of imperialism, I'm not sure what is.
Britain’s decision to establish its new Royal Navy base in Bahrain – the senior service’s largest operational base outside the UK.
It is still there just hidden.
Just move your cursor to where it should be and it’ll appear.
But not much detail.
First practice starts in just over 20 minutes.
Edited extra bits: Mr. B, the Vanilla icons only enter UK internet via the customs union, so they're being phased out.
Time to start thinking about cashing out?
The good news is that the opening has got positive press in the Gulf, where Britain is seen as a key strategic ally and military partner.
(& Mr.D - you tinker. )
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_overseas_military_bases
(Note the number in Djibouti...)
From Britainelect's tracker: when the election was announced the poll average was Con 42.4, Lab 26.5. Con got an immediate 4pt bounce which then dribbled away, and they ended up with .... 42.4! Lab however went on an immediate charge, and the increase is basically a perfect straight line, gaining +0.4 points per day for about 6 weeks (continuing past the election too, peaking at 45).
So even if the polls had their issues, as a whole they had the direction of travel right. Do the lessons learned really apply in more normal, static election situations though?
The pollsters had the right methodologies, just for the wrong election!
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/headlines/2018/4/formula-1-tables-its-proposals-for-2021.html
http://www.stateoftheleft.org/could-united-opposition-knock-orban-off-course/
I love his videos on YouTube re: Atheism mind. Great to watch.
https://twitter.com/spbajko/status/982197351170228226?s=21
There was almost no net Tory to Labour movement from 2015 to 2017 and helped too by UKIP voters moving to the Tories May still won the second highest number of Tory seats in 2017 for 25 years
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/05/warren-pledges-full-senate-term-2018-505308
Not running in 2020?
The comments....
Cable is pisspoor and needs to be gone by Christmas
As for the new Scottish complication heaped upon the existing UK complication, it's going to be counter-productive.
My point is the voters the Lib Dems had in 2015 largely seemed to stick with the party in 2017 (With some in seat variation following), a quite different situation to the wholesale UKIP collapse where they lost 3.3 million votes.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2018/03/11/three-reasons-why-jennie-formby-should-not-become-general-secretary-of-the-labour-party/
I remember when I first hit the 40% bracket, that was a huge disincentive at the time to work any additional overtime.
https://www.accountingweb.co.uk/community/blogs/gina-dyer/uk-tax-code-is-longest-in-the-world
That was pre-Osborne, who invented these new higher marginal rates which apply to certain salary ranges.
The law says that consumers can't be expected to read extra-long terms and conditions. But accountants make a living advising non-experts and are expected to have read all 17,000 pages of this guff.
Admittedly they will do that anyway, but it's always nice to have a valid excuse.
https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/982220998232629250
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/uk-opens-persian-gulf-naval-base-in-bahrain/2018/04/05/b51e3a48-38d7-11e8-af3c-2123715f78df_story.html?utm_term=.3659b073d05a
https://twitter.com/HighlandCouncil/status/982220107853119489
Shocked I tell you - worthy of a thread?
Wood 4/5
Rixson 11/10
MacInnes 10/1
Looking good for @Pulpstar
http://hurryupharry.org/2018/04/06/tough-times-for-jewish-corbynistas/
FFS
We even had a thread for the hagiography of Lord Rennard on here in recent memory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stand-your-ground_law#/media/File:Stand-your-ground_law_by_US_jurisdiction.svg
Probably £5 in value lost (I'm usually pretty careful about leaving such things hanging)
Tougher sentences don't do any good except keep them off the streets for a bit longer. Most of these people have been in and out of jail all their lives.
Therefore in principle I'm with the 61%, though the myriad of grey areas means the law has to be flexible. In principle though if you break into someone's house you deserve all you get including a frightened homeowner hitting you over the head with a hammer. If that principle were enshrined in law it might be a good deterrent though might also lead burglars to tool up with more weapons. You find you get more right wing on this when you have kids.