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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sajid Javid moves to second favourite to succeed Theresa May

SystemSystem Posts: 11,684
edited May 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sajid Javid moves to second favourite to succeed Theresa May

Following a glowing write-up by Fraser Nelson in The Telegraph this morning there’s been a lot of been a fair bit of betting interest in the Home Secretary for next Conservative leader.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    edited May 2018
    First - like Remain next time :smile:
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    ...incredible sex survivor... ?
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    First - like Remain next time :smile:

    I think you're right. We'll remain out when there's next an EU referendum.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Moves? :p
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    sex survivor lol
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    ...incredible sex survivor... ?

    LOL.

    And no one is home to fix it.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    ...incredible sex survivor... ?

    Best. Typo. Ever.

    (Or have I missed something important???)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    I know there are quite a few banned PB Leavers (iSam, NigeForEngland, Rod Crosby)

    But there are also banned PB Remainers (I think they're remain !)

    James Kelly
    Mick Pork
    The Right Reverend Stuart Campbell

    Can anyone spot the connection between them :) ?
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    I think this is my favourite last sentence of a thread header ever.

    Well played Mike.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    ...incredible sex survivor... ?

    Best. Typo. Ever.

    (Or have I missed something important???)
    Like the last day of term on here...
  • Options
    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    A Freudian slip?
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    ...incredible sex survivor... ?

    Best. Typo. Ever.

    (Or have I missed something important???)
    Like the last day of term on here...
    Bloody Swift key auto suggi
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755

    Pulpstar said:

    ...incredible sex survivor... ?

    Best. Typo. Ever.

    (Or have I missed something important???)
    Like the last day of term on here...
    Bloody Swift key auto suggi
    Mike, be honest she gives you the hots doesn't she ?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755

    Pulpstar said:

    ...incredible sex survivor... ?

    Best. Typo. Ever.

    (Or have I missed something important???)
    Like the last day of term on here...
    Bloody Swift key auto suggi
    Mike, be honest she gives you the hots doesn't she ?
    lie back and think of Maidenhead
  • Options
    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Pulpstar said:

    ...incredible sex survivor... ?

    Best. Typo. Ever.

    (Or have I missed something important???)
    Like the last day of term on here...
    Bloody Swift key auto suggi
    Isn't that like questioning the adverts on here? You get "incredible sex" auto-suggi'd because it's what you're most likely to type, right?
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    RobD said:

    ...incredible sex survivor... ?

    LOL.

    And no one is home to fix it.
    I think it is dictated.


    "She could have caused make .." "She could, of course, make .."

    "She's been incredible sex survivor.." "She's been incredible ???? survivor"
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    This thread is fruitier than I anticipated.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    It’s like Peter Bone’s birthday treat all over again.

    Bleurgh.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970
    Btw, feel free to add my name to the PB Remainers spreadsheet. Left of centre one too.
    Though I tend not to opine on Brexit, as I feel I am not changing anyone's views anytime soon, and am not particularly passionate about my own.
    I have heard nothing to convince me I made the wrong choice though.
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    First - like Remain next time :smile:

    I'm far from a Kipper. Miles away from one.

    I'm a social liberal. I'm an internationalist. I'm a free marketeer. I believe (vehemently) in looking after the poorest in society. I'm instinctively wary of anything anti-democratic; anything that distances a democratic voice further away from the dispossessed and nearer to the elites. Hence my dislike of the EU.

    Incidentally, I think the idea of a union of lots of countries is GREAT. I just think the EU has become bloated and elitist and thinks it knows best (when it doesn't). They've put their political ideology before the people of Greece and they will put the political ideology before a sensible deal over Brexit.

    Many disagree with me, but that's cool.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    The coat of arms of the Duchess of Sussex have been revealed. Rumours that it would contain two fingers rampant to BREXIT appear to have been 52% inaccurate and 48% boll*cks

    I'll get my coats .. of arms .. :smile:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44258461
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    I'd go for Javid in a shot - just to put another one in the eye of the Labour party :)
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    saddosaddo Posts: 534
    I hope he wins. Got a decent bet on him at 30 to 1 just after he became Home Sec
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Fenster said:

    First - like Remain next time :smile:

    I'm far from a Kipper. Miles away from one.

    I'm a social liberal. I'm an internationalist. I'm a free marketeer. I believe (vehemently) in looking after the poorest in society. I'm instinctively wary of anything anti-democratic; anything that distances a democratic voice further away from the dispossessed and nearer to the elites. Hence my dislike of the EU.

    Incidentally, I think the idea of a union of lots of countries is GREAT. I just think the EU has become bloated and elitist and thinks it knows best (when it doesn't). They've put their political ideology before the people of Greece and they will put the political ideology before a sensible deal over Brexit.

    Many disagree with me, but that's cool.
    I always had you down for a Conservative voter.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Fenster said:

    First - like Remain next time :smile:

    I'm far from a Kipper. Miles away from one.

    I'm a social liberal. I'm an internationalist. I'm a free marketeer. I believe (vehemently) in looking after the poorest in society. I'm instinctively wary of anything anti-democratic; anything that distances a democratic voice further away from the dispossessed and nearer to the elites. Hence my dislike of the EU.

    Incidentally, I think the idea of a union of lots of countries is GREAT. I just think the EU has become bloated and elitist and thinks it knows best (when it doesn't). They've put their political ideology before the people of Greece and they will put the political ideology before a sensible deal over Brexit.

    Many disagree with me, but that's cool.
    Think his ukip answer was to the gap between Cam and May's poll scores, not aimed at you.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    May is not going anytime soon but Javid could be the John Major candidate to Boris' Heseltine
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Fenster said:

    First - like Remain next time :smile:

    I'm far from a Kipper. Miles away from one.

    I'm a social liberal. I'm an internationalist. I'm a free marketeer. I believe (vehemently) in looking after the poorest in society. I'm instinctively wary of anything anti-democratic; anything that distances a democratic voice further away from the dispossessed and nearer to the elites. Hence my dislike of the EU.

    Incidentally, I think the idea of a union of lots of countries is GREAT. I just think the EU has become bloated and elitist and thinks it knows best (when it doesn't). They've put their political ideology before the people of Greece and they will put the political ideology before a sensible deal over Brexit.

    Many disagree with me, but that's cool.
    Think his ukip answer was to the gap between Cam and May's poll scores, not aimed at you.
    Ah sorry. Doh!
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970
    Re Javid. There appears to be a rising star tipped to be next leader in the Conservative Party almost monthly. Williamson, Hunt, Raab, Mordaunt, before that Rudd, Green, Patel, etc, etc. As well as Mogg and Boris and Gove et al.
    Meanwhile Mrs May carries on, if not serenely, then without serious challenge.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited May 2018
    Yorkcity said:

    Fenster said:

    First - like Remain next time :smile:

    I'm far from a Kipper. Miles away from one.

    I'm a social liberal. I'm an internationalist. I'm a free marketeer. I believe (vehemently) in looking after the poorest in society. I'm instinctively wary of anything anti-democratic; anything that distances a democratic voice further away from the dispossessed and nearer to the elites. Hence my dislike of the EU.

    Incidentally, I think the idea of a union of lots of countries is GREAT. I just think the EU has become bloated and elitist and thinks it knows best (when it doesn't). They've put their political ideology before the people of Greece and they will put the political ideology before a sensible deal over Brexit.

    Many disagree with me, but that's cool.
    I always had you down for a Conservative voter.
    I voted for Cameron.

    But then. SACRILEGE ALERT.

    I voted for Blair!

    I was in Majorca during last year's GE so didn't vote. And I'll admit I thought May would win a 50 seat majority even despite a shite campaign.

    I never liked Brown. I thought he was a covetous bully. I don't like May. I think she's an uncurious, cautious non-entity.

    I didn't mind Ed Miliband because he had ideas. I like people with ideas. I liked David Laws and Norman Lamb. I like Michael Gove. I liked Ken Clarke. I always liked Alan Johnson (although I doubt he would've had the skills to be PM).

    I think Ruth Davidson would be a magnificent PM. Her ideas chime with mine. She's very articulate and charming and funny. Very likeable, very smart; very persuasive.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    felix said:

    I'd go for Javid in a shot - just to put another one in the eye of the Labour party :)

    After Javid's macho pose in front of the Home Office one may only wonder what striking affectation at the portal of 10 Downing Street we would be entertained to.

    My vote is for bear chested mounted on a white charger, a la Putin, whilst carrying a pair of pearl handled six shooters and declaring "make my day punks" to the assembled fourth estate.

  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    OGH - Can Javid do it? Don’t know and in recent times baldies have not prospered in the role. Just think Hague and IDS.

    Let's hear it for the baldies!
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    felix said:

    OGH - Can Javid do it? Don’t know and in recent times baldies have not prospered in the role. Just think Hague and IDS.

    Let's hear it for the baldies!

    Perhaps he could solve this problem by putting on a wig. Then he'd be the hair apparent.
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    Pulpstar said:

    I know there are quite a few banned PB Leavers (iSam, NigeForEngland, Rod Crosby)

    But there are also banned PB Remainers (I think they're remain !)

    James Kelly
    Mick Pork
    The Right Reverend Stuart Campbell

    Can anyone spot the connection between them :) ?

    Banned Remainer here (not one of the three you list though)...rejoined so I can be added to the Remain tally. Thought it was Stuart Dickson not Campbell?
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Fenster said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Fenster said:

    First - like Remain next time :smile:

    I'm far from a Kipper. Miles away from one.

    I'm a social liberal. I'm an internationalist. I'm a free marketeer. I believe (vehemently) in looking after the poorest in society. I'm instinctively wary of anything anti-democratic; anything that distances a democratic voice further away from the dispossessed and nearer to the elites. Hence my dislike of the EU.

    Incidentally, I think the idea of a union of lots of countries is GREAT. I just think the EU has become bloated and elitist and thinks it knows best (when it doesn't). They've put their political ideology before the people of Greece and they will put the political ideology before a sensible deal over Brexit.

    Many disagree with me, but that's cool.
    I always had you down for a Conservative voter.
    I voted for Cameron.

    But then. SACRILEGE ALERT.

    I voted for Blair!

    I was in Majorca during last year's GE so didn't vote. And I'll admit I thought May would win a 50 seat majority even despite a shite campaign.

    I never liked Brown. I thought he was a covetous bully. I don't like May. I think she's an uncurious, cautious non-entity.

    I didn't mind Ed Miliband because he had ideas. I like people with ideas. I liked David Laws and Norman Lamb. I like Michael Gove. I liked Ken Clarke. I always liked Alan Johnson (although I doubt he would've had the skills to be PM).

    I think Ruth Davidson would be a magnificent PM. Her ideas chime with mine. She's very articulate and charming and funny. Very likeable, very smart; very persuasive.
    A lesbian mother - yup she might edge Javid - and with the added bonus of annoying both the nats and the Labour party!
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,435
    As a remainer I am not surprised that matters are not turning out as the Brexitiers forecasted.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    felix said:

    OGH - Can Javid do it? Don’t know and in recent times baldies have not prospered in the role. Just think Hague and IDS.

    Let's hear it for the baldies!

    Well we have had more baldies than beardies as PM, the last one was Lord Salisbury whereas Churchill and Attlee were both bald. Corbyn of course is bearded
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    felix said:

    OGH - Can Javid do it? Don’t know and in recent times baldies have not prospered in the role. Just think Hague and IDS.

    Let's hear it for the baldies!

    Perhaps he could solve this problem by putting on a wig. Then he'd be the hair apparent.
    Pretty obvious that Maggie wore a wig, who knows what she looked like underneath.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,819
    edited May 2018
    More wonderful ideas form the EU - My email inbox has been filled up with "privacy" nonsense all week and now EU citizens are unable to access some large websites in US

    http://www.latimes.com/

    Amazing work guys. Well done. Congratulations.

    [face-slow_handclap)
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    BillRoyBillRoy Posts: 7
    May I just point out that actually JRM does not need the support of 150 or more MPs in a leadership race, the actual number is just 106 MPs at most. This figure is arrived at by the number of Conservative MPs and dividing simply by 3. The last two candidates in the MP voting stage go through to a member ballot, therefore if JRM achieved 106 MPs votes he would mathematically have to be on the member ballot paper.

    Of course as the number of MPs who vote for the winner of ballot increases past 106 the number required to finish second actually reduces. So for example if the winner got 150 MP votes the number presently required by the runner up would fall to only 84 votes.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    GIN1138 said:

    More wonderful ideas form the EU - My email inbox has been filled up with "privacy" nonsense all week and now EU citizens are unable to access some large websites in US

    http://www.latimes.com/

    Amazing work guys. Well done. Congratulations.

    [face-slow_handclap)

    You can still see the New York Times, which suggests the story is litres about the new law and more about the hysterical reaction to it by some people (who possibly have an agenda).
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,853
    edited May 2018

    felix said:

    OGH - Can Javid do it? Don’t know and in recent times baldies have not prospered in the role. Just think Hague and IDS.

    Let's hear it for the baldies!

    Perhaps he could solve this problem by putting on a wig. Then he'd be the hair apparent.
    Pretty obvious that Maggie wore a wig, who knows what she looked like underneath.
    Hairesy!
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,853
    GIN1138 said:

    More wonderful ideas form the EU - My email inbox has been filled up with "privacy" nonsense all week and now EU citizens are unable to access some large websites in US

    http://www.latimes.com/

    Amazing work guys. Well done. Congratulations.

    [face-slow_handclap)

    I’m loving the GDPR.
    Off dozens of mailing lists, some harking back a decade or more.

    The EU takes privacy seriously. The US, not so much.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787


    felix said:

    OGH - Can Javid do it? Don’t know and in recent times baldies have not prospered in the role. Just think Hague and IDS.

    Let's hear it for the baldies!

    Perhaps he could solve this problem by putting on a wig. Then he'd be the hair apparent.
    Pretty obvious that Maggie wore a wig, who knows what she looked like underneath.
    Hairesy!
    Hairsay!
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,853
    JackW said:


    felix said:

    OGH - Can Javid do it? Don’t know and in recent times baldies have not prospered in the role. Just think Hague and IDS.

    Let's hear it for the baldies!

    Perhaps he could solve this problem by putting on a wig. Then he'd be the hair apparent.
    Pretty obvious that Maggie wore a wig, who knows what she looked like underneath.
    Hairesy!
    Hairsay!
    It’s a follicy!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    GIN1138 said:

    More wonderful ideas form the EU - My email inbox has been filled up with "privacy" nonsense all week and now EU citizens are unable to access some large websites in US

    http://www.latimes.com/

    Amazing work guys. Well done. Congratulations.

    [face-slow_handclap)

    I’m loving the GDPR.
    Off dozens of mailing lists, some harking back a decade or more.

    The EU takes privacy seriously. The US, not so much.
    Couldn't you have unsubscribed?
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:


    felix said:

    OGH - Can Javid do it? Don’t know and in recent times baldies have not prospered in the role. Just think Hague and IDS.

    Let's hear it for the baldies!

    Perhaps he could solve this problem by putting on a wig. Then he'd be the hair apparent.
    Pretty obvious that Maggie wore a wig, who knows what she looked like underneath.
    Hairesy!
    Hairsay!
    It’s a follicy!
    That's the bald truth.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    BillRoy said:

    May I just point out that actually JRM does not need the support of 150 or more MPs in a leadership race, the actual number is just 106 MPs at most. This figure is arrived at by the number of Conservative MPs and dividing simply by 3. The last two candidates in the MP voting stage go through to a member ballot, therefore if JRM achieved 106 MPs votes he would mathematically have to be on the member ballot paper.

    Of course as the number of MPs who vote for the winner of ballot increases past 106 the number required to finish second actually reduces. So for example if the winner got 150 MP votes the number presently required by the runner up would fall to only 84 votes.

    Thank you. That's a really good point. I have been taking comfort that he'd have to get a half to be in the final two. 106 (possibly less) is doable. I've been laying Rees-Mogg as next leader. Now I'm not so sure. If he is the final two, he has a good chance.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    Sudden move against the 2nd amendment being left unchanged.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    Barnesian said:

    BillRoy said:

    May I just point out that actually JRM does not need the support of 150 or more MPs in a leadership race, the actual number is just 106 MPs at most. This figure is arrived at by the number of Conservative MPs and dividing simply by 3. The last two candidates in the MP voting stage go through to a member ballot, therefore if JRM achieved 106 MPs votes he would mathematically have to be on the member ballot paper.

    Of course as the number of MPs who vote for the winner of ballot increases past 106 the number required to finish second actually reduces. So for example if the winner got 150 MP votes the number presently required by the runner up would fall to only 84 votes.

    Thank you. That's a really good point. I have been taking comfort that he'd have to get a half to be in the final two. 106 (possibly less) is doable. I've been laying Rees-Mogg as next leader. Now I'm not so sure. If he is the final two, he has a good chance.
    Andrea Leadsom got 84 votes in summer 2016 and would have gone to the membership against May had she not pulled out.

    The risk Mogg may replace May is clearly another factor keeping May in place for many Tory MPs
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Barnesian said:

    BillRoy said:

    May I just point out that actually JRM does not need the support of 150 or more MPs in a leadership race, the actual number is just 106 MPs at most. This figure is arrived at by the number of Conservative MPs and dividing simply by 3. The last two candidates in the MP voting stage go through to a member ballot, therefore if JRM achieved 106 MPs votes he would mathematically have to be on the member ballot paper.

    Of course as the number of MPs who vote for the winner of ballot increases past 106 the number required to finish second actually reduces. So for example if the winner got 150 MP votes the number presently required by the runner up would fall to only 84 votes.

    Thank you. That's a really good point. I have been taking comfort that he'd have to get a half to be in the final two. 106 (possibly less) is doable. I've been laying Rees-Mogg as next leader. Now I'm not so sure. If he is the final two, he has a good chance.
    The question is just not whether a hardline Leaver gets to the final two, though I don't think that's automatic. Let's assume there are 130 headbanger Conservative MPs who see Brexit as the sole measure of the quality of a candidate. For Jacob Rees-Mogg to succeed, he must not only harvest most of their votes, he must get past other hardline Leaver candidates, many of whom will be throwing their hats into the ring. Among the relevant subset of MPs, will he be preferred to Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Liam Fox and Andrea Leadsom? He has to be enough MPs' first (or near-first) choice to get into the final stages. Right now, I don't see that. I'm sceptical he'll even stand.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,084
    Pulpstar said:

    I know there are quite a few banned PB Leavers (iSam, NigeForEngland, Rod Crosby)

    But there are also banned PB Remainers (I think they're remain !)

    James Kelly
    Mick Pork
    The Right Reverend Stuart Campbell

    Can anyone spot the connection between them :) ?

    Who is the Stuart Campbell persona ?

    Wasn't Stuart Dickson another SNAT Remainer who was banned ?

    I noticed that HHemmelig was also banned yesterday and he voted Remain.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,084
    Re shifting political views.

    I find it somewhat disturbing how often I agree with the comments of Sandy, Wulfrun Phil and Old Labour.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008

    Barnesian said:

    BillRoy said:

    May I just point out that actually JRM does not need the support of 150 or more MPs in a leadership race, the actual number is just 106 MPs at most. This figure is arrived at by the number of Conservative MPs and dividing simply by 3. The last two candidates in the MP voting stage go through to a member ballot, therefore if JRM achieved 106 MPs votes he would mathematically have to be on the member ballot paper.

    Of course as the number of MPs who vote for the winner of ballot increases past 106 the number required to finish second actually reduces. So for example if the winner got 150 MP votes the number presently required by the runner up would fall to only 84 votes.

    Thank you. That's a really good point. I have been taking comfort that he'd have to get a half to be in the final two. 106 (possibly less) is doable. I've been laying Rees-Mogg as next leader. Now I'm not so sure. If he is the final two, he has a good chance.
    The question is just not whether a hardline Leaver gets to the final two, though I don't think that's automatic. Let's assume there are 130 headbanger Conservative MPs who see Brexit as the sole measure of the quality of a candidate. For Jacob Rees-Mogg to succeed, he must not only harvest most of their votes, he must get past other hardline Leaver candidates, many of whom will be throwing their hats into the ring. Among the relevant subset of MPs, will he be preferred to Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Liam Fox and Andrea Leadsom? He has to be enough MPs' first (or near-first) choice to get into the final stages. Right now, I don't see that. I'm sceptical he'll even stand.
    Right now Johnson v Javid looks like the most likely choice for MPs to send to members in my view, with Gove and Mogg backing Boris in the end
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,084
    Re the Leave / Remain spreadsheet.

    I think Jonathan and YDoethur voted Remain and MyBurningEyes voted Leave.

    And is Anazina really the same person as Bobajob ?
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    BillRoyBillRoy Posts: 7
    The main problem for JRM is that he haws constantly stated he does not want to be PM, however, as his popularity soars with the membership he could well accept his name going forward. 'If' JRM is on the MPs ballot paper then it is more than likely that he will be on the members ballot paper as he is actually well liked and more importantly 'respected' by many MPs - with the exception of the die-hard anti-Brexiter group.


    Of course also in JRM's favour is he is chairman of the ERG who have an undeclared membership number but lies somewhere between 60 - 80 members, and then it will all be down to who out of Gove, Johnson, and JRM get least votes initially and are therefore removed and who they then back for leader. My feeling is that JRM will be seen by many non-committed MPs who do not want Johnson or Gove as leader and PM will plum for JRM knowing that he would crucify Corbyn, et al, and at least be the most likely to bring a Conservative majority at the next election. (I also happen to know that presently many 'party members' are letting their MPs know their choice.)

    Theresa May should have taken the risk and offered JRM a Cabinet post, but instead she fears him, and when the PM fears someone then you know there must be something good about that person. LOL

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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989

    Barnesian said:

    BillRoy said:

    May I just point out that actually JRM does not need the support of 150 or more MPs in a leadership race, the actual number is just 106 MPs at most. This figure is arrived at by the number of Conservative MPs and dividing simply by 3. The last two candidates in the MP voting stage go through to a member ballot, therefore if JRM achieved 106 MPs votes he would mathematically have to be on the member ballot paper.

    Of course as the number of MPs who vote for the winner of ballot increases past 106 the number required to finish second actually reduces. So for example if the winner got 150 MP votes the number presently required by the runner up would fall to only 84 votes.

    Thank you. That's a really good point. I have been taking comfort that he'd have to get a half to be in the final two. 106 (possibly less) is doable. I've been laying Rees-Mogg as next leader. Now I'm not so sure. If he is the final two, he has a good chance.
    The question is just not whether a hardline Leaver gets to the final two, though I don't think that's automatic. Let's assume there are 130 headbanger Conservative MPs who see Brexit as the sole measure of the quality of a candidate. For Jacob Rees-Mogg to succeed, he must not only harvest most of their votes, he must get past other hardline Leaver candidates, many of whom will be throwing their hats into the ring. Among the relevant subset of MPs, will he be preferred to Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Liam Fox and Andrea Leadsom? He has to be enough MPs' first (or near-first) choice to get into the final stages. Right now, I don't see that. I'm sceptical he'll even stand.
    I assume there will be at least ONE leaver candidate in the final two. That candidate, whoever it is, I assume will win in a vote of the party faithful against any remainer.

    So remainer MPs will know they are wasting their time voting for a remainer candidate. They will need to vote tactically for a leaver so that there are TWO leaver candidates, and try to squeeze out the least desirable (assume Rees Mogg). They need to collude and split say 90 for Gove and 90 for Johnson. Even if the 130 leavers go heavily for Rees-Mogg, then Gove and Johnson should pick up at least 16 votes each out of the 130. So the party members will have to choose between Gove and Johnson.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    edited May 2018
    @Pulpstar

    I was and am a Remainer.

    I am also however a democrat and a realist, two ways that puts me seriously at odds with the EU and the current fascist cabal leadership of the Commission and their more hysterical and frankly less intelligent supporters on here. I accept we are leaving and there is nothing I can do to stop it.

    I am also fuming at the EU who out of sheer bone-headed stupidity are making it virtually impossible for us to (a) leave without causing vast damage to everyone including them and (b) making it damn near impossible for us to rejoin should we later wish to do so.

    I also don't think Barnier, a man who was illegally appointed to his post before being cravenly confirmed by the spineless leaders of the EU governments, has a long track record of breaking laws that don't suit him and is frankly neither very intelligent or very experienced should in any way be involved in negotiations, and that goes double for Juncker and Selmayr who are not just demonstrably morally and intellectually unfit to hold any sort of public office but shouldn't according to EU law even be in the room at all during negotiations much less speaking during them. They have resulted, given our negotiators are equally useless, in the predictable car crash.

    However, that still doesn't make the economic damage which undoubtedly tip Europe (rather than us) further towards Fascism worth the game. If there were a second referendum with the option to withdraw A50, I'd vote for it. But since there isn't time for a second referendum and since notwithstanding the lies of the Blairite stooge who wrote it there is no way of withdrawing A50, I won't, and I would rather make the best of the world as it is than the world as I'd like it to be.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited May 2018

    Re the Leave / Remain spreadsheet.

    I think Jonathan and YDoethur voted Remain and MyBurningEyes voted Leave.

    And is Anazina really the same person as Bobajob ?

    Did Ydoethur really vote to remain ?!
    Edit: OK Sorry thought you voted to leave :)
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    Pulpstar said:

    Re the Leave / Remain spreadsheet.

    I think Jonathan and YDoethur voted Remain and MyBurningEyes voted Leave.

    And is Anazina really the same person as Bobajob ?

    Did Ydoethur really vote to remain ?!
    Edit: OK Sorry thought you voted to leave :)
    Why is it that you have to say something fifty times before people will believe you?

    Do you have to be totally uncritical of the very many serious flaws and weaknesses of the EU before you are accepted as a Remainer? Because if so pretty well the entire bloody continent outside Luxembourg would vote Leave!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Re the Leave / Remain spreadsheet.

    I think Jonathan and YDoethur voted Remain and MyBurningEyes voted Leave.

    And is Anazina really the same person as Bobajob ?

    Did Ydoethur really vote to remain ?!
    Edit: OK Sorry thought you voted to leave :)
    Why is it that you have to say something fifty times before people will believe you?

    Do you have to be totally uncritical of the very many serious flaws and weaknesses of the EU before you are accepted as a Remainer? Because if so pretty well the entire bloody continent outside Luxembourg would vote Leave!
    Well it’s a plan.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,084
    edited May 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Re the Leave / Remain spreadsheet.

    I think Jonathan and YDoethur voted Remain and MyBurningEyes voted Leave.

    And is Anazina really the same person as Bobajob ?

    Did Ydoethur really vote to remain ?!
    Edit: OK Sorry thought you voted to leave :)
    David Herdson also voted Remain while GeoffM was a Leaver (is he banned ?).

    HurstLlama was a Leaver - anyone know what's happened to him ?
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,157

    Pulpstar said:

    Re the Leave / Remain spreadsheet.

    I think Jonathan and YDoethur voted Remain and MyBurningEyes voted Leave.

    And is Anazina really the same person as Bobajob ?

    Did Ydoethur really vote to remain ?!
    Edit: OK Sorry thought you voted to leave :)
    David Herdson also voted Remain while GeoffM was a Leaver (is he banned ?).

    HurstLlama was a Leaver - anyone know what's happened to him ?
    I was wondering too.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242

    Pulpstar said:

    Re the Leave / Remain spreadsheet.

    I think Jonathan and YDoethur voted Remain and MyBurningEyes voted Leave.

    And is Anazina really the same person as Bobajob ?

    Did Ydoethur really vote to remain ?!
    Edit: OK Sorry thought you voted to leave :)
    David Herdson also voted Remain while GeoffM was a Leaver (is he banned ?).

    HurstLlama was a Leaver - anyone know what's happened to him ?
    Think he got fed up with the rather sterile arguments on here and wandered off.

    He's still on Twitter:

    https://www.twitter.com/hurstllama
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,779
    Barnesian said:



    I assume there will be at least ONE leaver candidate in the final two. That candidate, whoever it is, I assume will win in a vote of the party faithful against any remainer.

    So remainer MPs will know they are wasting their time voting for a remainer candidate. They will need to vote tactically for a leaver so that there are TWO leaver candidates, and try to squeeze out the least desirable (assume Rees Mogg). They need to collude and split say 90 for Gove and 90 for Johnson. Even if the 130 leavers go heavily for Rees-Mogg, then Gove and Johnson should pick up at least 16 votes each out of the 130. So the party members will have to choose between Gove and Johnson.

    If there's a pre-Brexit change then there will be a leaver in the final two. Post Brexit, and if the change is in government then it'll probably be down to the front-runners, but even then it could be almost any MP - Leadsom suddenly springing to prominence tells us this. Outside of government I think it's almost nailed on that an outsider will be in the mix. It's the Tory way and also makes some sense in that the front-runners have been partly responsible for the Tories not being in power in the first place.

    I know you'll think I'm mad, but I have tiny stake on Owen Patterson, and a pretty small stake on one other fairly anonymous back-bencher.

    I think it's the most fascinating of markets.

    In normal times that crown would have gone to the Labour leadership market - I'll almost be sorry to see Corbyn go in that such a fascinating market will be lost. There's some extraordinary prices at which I've traded on Betfair (mostly, but not exclusively, extraordinary in my favour. I must have got nervous at some point as I backed Angela Eagle at avg odds of 5.26.. . In hindsight, what on earth was I thinking!)
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,813
    edited May 2018
    With how far the Tory MPs could realistically engineer a final two through whisper and rumour, you have to think that a sub140 / 90+ / sub 90 split is a possible in the last MP round.

    So, secure 90-95 MPs and you are at the races.

    Suffice to say, there are candidates who might struggle to secure 130 MPs, but who would have a decent tilt at 95.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    Pro_Rata said:

    With how far the Tory MPs could realistically engineer a final two through whisper and rumour, good have to think that a sub140 / 90+ / sub 90 split is a possible in the last MP round.

    So, secure 90-95 MPs and you are at the races.

    Suffice to say, there are candidates who might struggle to secure 130 MPs, but who would have a decent tilt at 95.

    If it's John Redwood, notwithstanding his undoubted skill as an economist, I WILL emigrate.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tories fighting the next election with Sajid Javid as leader would be a masterstroke.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,084

    Pulpstar said:

    Re the Leave / Remain spreadsheet.

    I think Jonathan and YDoethur voted Remain and MyBurningEyes voted Leave.

    And is Anazina really the same person as Bobajob ?

    Did Ydoethur really vote to remain ?!
    Edit: OK Sorry thought you voted to leave :)
    David Herdson also voted Remain while GeoffM was a Leaver (is he banned ?).

    HurstLlama was a Leaver - anyone know what's happened to him ?
    Rivaling David Herdson for the most prominent PBer not on the list is AndyJS - another Remainer.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Pulpstar said:

    ...incredible sex survivor... ?

    Best. Typo. Ever.

    (Or have I missed something important???)
    Like the last day of term on here...
    Bloody Swift key auto suggi
    Isn’t auto suggestion based on your prior history...

    :tongue:
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,018
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    Re shifting political views.

    I find it somewhat disturbing how often I agree with the comments of Sandy, Wulfrun Phil and Old Labour.

    Political opponents may still have plenty of sensible views.

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    First - like Remain next time :smile:

    I'm far from a Kipper. Miles away from one.

    I'm a social liberal. I'm an internationalist. I'm a free marketeer. I believe (vehemently) in looking after the poorest in society. I'm instinctively wary of anything anti-democratic; anything that distances a democratic voice further away from the dispossessed and nearer to the elites. Hence my dislike of the EU.

    Incidentally, I think the idea of a union of lots of countries is GREAT. I just think the EU has become bloated and elitist and thinks it knows best (when it doesn't). They've put their political ideology before the people of Greece and they will put the political ideology before a sensible deal over Brexit.

    Many disagree with me, but that's cool.
    Think his ukip answer was to the gap between Cam and May's poll scores, not aimed at you.
    Ah sorry. Doh!
    Yes JohnnyJimmy's right! My reply was a bit obscure sorry, had to dash off. Back now.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories fighting the next election with Sajid Javid as leader would be a masterstroke.

    As suggested upthread, he needs a Trump-style wig. Currently, he looks like Dr. Evil.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,084
    Sean_F said:

    Re shifting political views.

    I find it somewhat disturbing how often I agree with the comments of Sandy, Wulfrun Phil and Old Labour.

    Political opponents may still have plenty of sensible views.

    And political allies might have plenty of foolish views.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,779
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories fighting the next election with Sajid Javid as leader would be a masterstroke.

    Quite uninspiring though. You can't be lead by someone that just gets on with the job. (Although I believe Labour tried that, and unfortunately found an indescribable charlatan, whi wrecked our economy and who somehow got away with not being shot for treason)

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    Sean_F said:

    Re shifting political views.

    I find it somewhat disturbing how often I agree with the comments of Sandy, Wulfrun Phil and Old Labour.

    Political opponents may still have plenty of sensible views.

    Indeed, given how much our mainstream parties do agree on many fundamentals it would be highly unusual if the other side did not come up with good ideas. As with all things, it's a balance, and the good ideas of one may not outweigh the bad.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    Turnout may be lower than expected in Ireland's abortion referendum, if so depends if the pro life or pro choice side have got their voters out

    https://mobile.twitter.com/WeeMissBea/status/1000046465182466048/photo/1
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    surby said:

    "Since the referendum around 1.2m electors have died, while 1.4m have joined the electorate. If we extrapolate from YouGov’s data from the youngest and oldest voters, and take account of variations in turnout by age, then I reckon that around 600,000 Leave voters, and 300,000 Remain voters have died; while 650,000 young Remainers and 150,000 Leave supporters have joined the voting population. Combine these figures, and these demographic factors have given us 350,000 extra Remain voters and 450,000 fewer Leave voters."
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    edited May 2018

    Pulpstar said:

    Re the Leave / Remain spreadsheet.

    I think Jonathan and YDoethur voted Remain and MyBurningEyes voted Leave.

    And is Anazina really the same person as Bobajob ?

    Did Ydoethur really vote to remain ?!
    Edit: OK Sorry thought you voted to leave :)
    David Herdson also voted Remain while GeoffM was a Leaver (is he banned ?).

    HurstLlama was a Leaver - anyone know what's happened to him ?
    Rivaling David Herdson for the most prominent PBer not on the list is AndyJS - another Remainer.
    The top ten most prominent PBers, based on number of posts, are:

    TSE 65K
    Pulpstar 45K
    MorrisDancer 42K
    HYUFD 40K
    Scott_P 36K
    RobD 32K
    Kle4 30K
    CarlottaVance 28K
    FrancisUrquhart 28K
    Southam Observer 26K


  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Re the Leave / Remain spreadsheet.

    I think Jonathan and YDoethur voted Remain and MyBurningEyes voted Leave.

    And is Anazina really the same person as Bobajob ?

    Did Ydoethur really vote to remain ?!
    Edit: OK Sorry thought you voted to leave :)
    David Herdson also voted Remain while GeoffM was a Leaver (is he banned ?).

    HurstLlama was a Leaver - anyone know what's happened to him ?
    Rivaling David Herdson for the most prominent PBer not on the list is AndyJS - another Remainer.
    The top ten most prominent PBers, based on number of posts, are:

    TSE 65K
    Pulpstar 45K
    MorrisDancer 42K
    HYUFD 40K
    Scott_P 36K
    RobD 32K
    Kle3 30K
    CarlottaVance 28K
    FrancisUrquhart 28K
    Southam Observer 26K


    I don't know who this kle3 is, but he needs to post less, that's for sure!
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,650

    GIN1138 said:

    More wonderful ideas form the EU - My email inbox has been filled up with "privacy" nonsense all week and now EU citizens are unable to access some large websites in US

    http://www.latimes.com/

    Amazing work guys. Well done. Congratulations.

    [face-slow_handclap)

    You can still see the New York Times, which suggests the story is litres about the new law and more about the hysterical reaction to it by some people (who possibly have an agenda).
    Also US websites denying access doesn't exempt them from the GPDR it seems:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/999732448455024640?s=19
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    HYUFD said:

    Turnout may be lower than expected in Ireland's abortion referendum, if so depends if the pro life or pro choice side have got their voters out

    https://mobile.twitter.com/WeeMissBea/status/1000046465182466048/photo/1

    I don’t think that bodes well for the repeal campaign.

    Then again, my Irish colleague thinks the shy vote in this referendum will be for repeal, because of the zealotry of the antis.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Re the Leave / Remain spreadsheet.

    I think Jonathan and YDoethur voted Remain and MyBurningEyes voted Leave.

    And is Anazina really the same person as Bobajob ?

    Did Ydoethur really vote to remain ?!
    Edit: OK Sorry thought you voted to leave :)
    David Herdson also voted Remain while GeoffM was a Leaver (is he banned ?).

    HurstLlama was a Leaver - anyone know what's happened to him ?
    Rivaling David Herdson for the most prominent PBer not on the list is AndyJS - another Remainer.
    The top ten most prominent PBers, based on number of posts, are:

    TSE 65K
    Pulpstar 45K
    MorrisDancer 42K
    HYUFD 40K
    Scott_P 36K
    RobD 32K
    Kle3 30K
    CarlottaVance 28K
    FrancisUrquhart 28K
    Southam Observer 26K


    I don't know who this kle3 is, but he needs to post less, that's for sure!
    Sorry edited. I think of you as a trinity rather than a quad for some reason.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    surby said:

    surby said:

    "Since the referendum around 1.2m electors have died, while 1.4m have joined the electorate. If we extrapolate from YouGov’s data from the youngest and oldest voters, and take account of variations in turnout by age, then I reckon that around 600,000 Leave voters, and 300,000 Remain voters have died; while 650,000 young Remainers and 150,000 Leave supporters have joined the voting population. Combine these figures, and these demographic factors have given us 350,000 extra Remain voters and 450,000 fewer Leave voters."
    The key issue is then whether people aged 40- 50 have shifted towards Leave.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Re the Leave / Remain spreadsheet.

    I think Jonathan and YDoethur voted Remain and MyBurningEyes voted Leave.

    And is Anazina really the same person as Bobajob ?

    Did Ydoethur really vote to remain ?!
    Edit: OK Sorry thought you voted to leave :)
    David Herdson also voted Remain while GeoffM was a Leaver (is he banned ?).

    HurstLlama was a Leaver - anyone know what's happened to him ?
    Rivaling David Herdson for the most prominent PBer not on the list is AndyJS - another Remainer.
    The top ten most prominent PBers, based on number of posts, are:

    TSE 65K
    Pulpstar 45K
    MorrisDancer 42K
    HYUFD 40K
    Scott_P 36K
    RobD 32K
    Kle3 30K
    CarlottaVance 28K
    FrancisUrquhart 28K
    Southam Observer 26K


    I don't know who this kle3 is, but he needs to post less, that's for sure!
    Sorry edited. I think of you as a trinity rather than a quad for some reason.
    Anyone who can afford pineapple pizza and all the opprobrium that comes with it must be in clover?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    Turnout may be lower than expected in Ireland's abortion referendum, if so depends if the pro life or pro choice side have got their voters out

    https://mobile.twitter.com/WeeMissBea/status/1000046465182466048/photo/1

    I don’t think that bodes well for the repeal campaign.

    Then again, my Irish colleague thinks the shy vote in this referendum will be for repeal, because of the zealotry of the antis.
    It seems there was high turnout early on but that has slowed a bit
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    edited May 2018
    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    Turnout may be lower than expected in Ireland's abortion referendum, if so depends if the pro life or pro choice side have got their voters out

    https://mobile.twitter.com/WeeMissBea/status/1000046465182466048/photo/1

    I don’t think that bodes well for the repeal campaign.

    Then again, my Irish colleague thinks the shy vote in this referendum will be for repeal, because of the zealotry of the antis.
    Equally, it could just be someone trying to ramp the Repeal vote.

    I'd expect the shy vote to be No, as it's the politically incorrect option.
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    GIN1138 said:

    More wonderful ideas form the EU - My email inbox has been filled up with "privacy" nonsense all week and now EU citizens are unable to access some large websites in US

    http://www.latimes.com/

    Amazing work guys. Well done. Congratulations.

    [face-slow_handclap)

    I really support the GDPR. In fact I [ had to ] appoint a Data Protection Officer.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    edited May 2018
    Sean_F said:

    surby said:

    surby said:

    "Since the referendum around 1.2m electors have died, while 1.4m have joined the electorate. If we extrapolate from YouGov’s data from the youngest and oldest voters, and take account of variations in turnout by age, then I reckon that around 600,000 Leave voters, and 300,000 Remain voters have died; while 650,000 young Remainers and 150,000 Leave supporters have joined the voting population. Combine these figures, and these demographic factors have given us 350,000 extra Remain voters and 450,000 fewer Leave voters."
    The key issue is then whether people aged 40- 50 have shifted towards Leave.
    Not really. We are leaving. It is over.

    The key question is whether given demographic change and hopefully some serious reform of the EU we will be able to rejoin in ten years, which would make the votes of people in their 30s (like me) probably more significant.

    At the moment the EU appear to be trying to make it impossible for us to do so. This is short-sighted, stupid, wouldn't be done by anyone with the brains of a mouse, and therefore entirely typical of the actions of the Brussels elite.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Re the Leave / Remain spreadsheet.

    I think Jonathan and YDoethur voted Remain and MyBurningEyes voted Leave.

    And is Anazina really the same person as Bobajob ?

    Did Ydoethur really vote to remain ?!
    Edit: OK Sorry thought you voted to leave :)
    David Herdson also voted Remain while GeoffM was a Leaver (is he banned ?).

    HurstLlama was a Leaver - anyone know what's happened to him ?
    Rivaling David Herdson for the most prominent PBer not on the list is AndyJS - another Remainer.
    The top ten most prominent PBers, based on number of posts, are:

    TSE 65K
    Pulpstar 45K
    MorrisDancer 42K
    HYUFD 40K
    Scott_P 36K
    RobD 32K
    Kle3 30K
    CarlottaVance 28K
    FrancisUrquhart 28K
    Southam Observer 26K


    I don't know who this kle3 is, but he needs to post less, that's for sure!
    How does it feel to be a sequel?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    ydoethur said:


    Leadership of the Commission - "a fascist cabal"
    Michel Barnier - "neither very intelligent or very experienced"
    Juncker and Selmayr - "morally and intellectually unfit to hold any sort of public office"
    Lord Kerr - "a Blairite stooge"

    It must be tough to share a planet with people who are so markedly inferior to you.
    ydoethur said:


    John Redwood - "undoubted skill as an economist"

    Even the people you have a modicum of respect for inspire thoughts of fleeing the country...
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    edited May 2018
    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    Turnout may be lower than expected in Ireland's abortion referendum, if so depends if the pro life or pro choice side have got their voters out

    https://mobile.twitter.com/WeeMissBea/status/1000046465182466048/photo/1

    I don’t think that bodes well for the repeal campaign.

    Then again, my Irish colleague thinks the shy vote in this referendum will be for repeal, because of the zealotry of the antis.

    BBC suggesting turnout a couple of hours ago "was higher than at the same stage of the country's referendum on same-sex marriage and its most recent general election"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44241521
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    Turnout may be lower than expected in Ireland's abortion referendum, if so depends if the pro life or pro choice side have got their voters out

    https://mobile.twitter.com/WeeMissBea/status/1000046465182466048/photo/1

    I don’t think that bodes well for the repeal campaign.

    Then again, my Irish colleague thinks the shy vote in this referendum will be for repeal, because of the zealotry of the antis.
    Equally, it could just be someone trying to ramp the Repeal vote.

    I'd expect the shy vote to be No, as it's the politically incorrect option.
    Irish Times has an exit poll after polls close at 10pm and Late, Late Show has an exit poll at 11 30pm.

    Main count tomorrow
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008

    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    Turnout may be lower than expected in Ireland's abortion referendum, if so depends if the pro life or pro choice side have got their voters out

    https://mobile.twitter.com/WeeMissBea/status/1000046465182466048/photo/1

    I don’t think that bodes well for the repeal campaign.

    Then again, my Irish colleague thinks the shy vote in this referendum will be for repeal, because of the zealotry of the antis.

    BBC suggesting turnout a couple of hours ago "was higher than at the same stage of the country's referendum on same-sex marriage and its most recent general election"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44241521
    It was certainly high this morning in both rural and urban areas but seems to have slowed a bit since then
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    More wonderful ideas form the EU - My email inbox has been filled up with "privacy" nonsense all week and now EU citizens are unable to access some large websites in US

    http://www.latimes.com/

    Amazing work guys. Well done. Congratulations.

    [face-slow_handclap)

    You can still see the New York Times, which suggests the story is litres about the new law and more about the hysterical reaction to it by some people (who possibly have an agenda).
    Also US websites denying access doesn't exempt them from the GPDR it seems:

    twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/999732448455024640?s=19
    Why wouldn’t it? It only applies to users in the EU.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    Turnout may be lower than expected in Ireland's abortion referendum, if so depends if the pro life or pro choice side have got their voters out

    https://mobile.twitter.com/WeeMissBea/status/1000046465182466048/photo/1

    I don’t think that bodes well for the repeal campaign.

    Then again, my Irish colleague thinks the shy vote in this referendum will be for repeal, because of the zealotry of the antis.
    Equally, it could just be someone trying to ramp the Repeal vote.

    I'd expect the shy vote to be No, as it's the politically incorrect option.
    Irish Times has an exit poll after polls close at 10pm and Late, Late Show has an exit poll at 11 30pm.

    Main count tomorrow
    What is the track record of Irish exit polls?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770

    ydoethur said:


    Leadership of the Commission - "a fascist cabal"
    Michel Barnier - "neither very intelligent or very experienced"
    Juncker and Selmayr - "morally and intellectually unfit to hold any sort of public office"
    Lord Kerr - "a Blairite stooge"

    It must be tough to share a planet with people who are so markedly inferior to you.

    .
    I don't quite know how you go from 'he has a low opinion of those specific people' to an implication he must feel it a burden to share a planet with such people. Are there no people whom you hold in contempt, reasonably or otherwise? That doesn't automatically mean you think yourself some grand creature of whom they are not worthy

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Re the Leave / Remain spreadsheet.

    I think Jonathan and YDoethur voted Remain and MyBurningEyes voted Leave.

    And is Anazina really the same person as Bobajob ?

    Did Ydoethur really vote to remain ?!
    Edit: OK Sorry thought you voted to leave :)
    David Herdson also voted Remain while GeoffM was a Leaver (is he banned ?).

    HurstLlama was a Leaver - anyone know what's happened to him ?
    Rivaling David Herdson for the most prominent PBer not on the list is AndyJS - another Remainer.
    The top ten most prominent PBers, based on number of posts, are:

    TSE 65K
    Pulpstar 45K
    MorrisDancer 42K
    HYUFD 40K
    Scott_P 36K
    RobD 32K
    Kle3 30K
    CarlottaVance 28K
    FrancisUrquhart 28K
    Southam Observer 26K


    I don't know who this kle3 is, but he needs to post less, that's for sure!
    How does it feel to be a sequel?
    Disappointing, but not I always suspected.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    Turnout may be lower than expected in Ireland's abortion referendum, if so depends if the pro life or pro choice side have got their voters out

    https://mobile.twitter.com/WeeMissBea/status/1000046465182466048/photo/1

    I don’t think that bodes well for the repeal campaign.

    Then again, my Irish colleague thinks the shy vote in this referendum will be for repeal, because of the zealotry of the antis.
    Equally, it could just be someone trying to ramp the Repeal vote.

    I'd expect the shy vote to be No, as it's the politically incorrect option.
    Irish Times has an exit poll after polls close at 10pm and Late, Late Show has an exit poll at 11 30pm.

    Main count tomorrow
    What is the track record of Irish exit polls?
    Irish Times is reasonably accurate apparently
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