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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Conservatives must join and win the battle of ideas

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    RoyalBlue said:

    alex. said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    I also see Sir John Major has joined Tory MPs like Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston, Guto Bebb and now Heidi Allen in backing a 'People's Vote' and a second EU referendum

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45690002?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cwlw3xz0lvvt/brexit&link_location=live-reporting-story

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45690898

    The other people in that list only confirm what a totally fringe option a second referendum is for Conservatives. Those with something between their ears realise it would blow the party to smithereens.
    No-one brings the UK to heel. No-one.
    'If it does happen I’d advocate scorched earth: being as disruptive and non-collegiate a member as possible inside the EU in revenge for the EU’s total non-collaboration over constructively creating a more sustainable long term relationship with the UK, which would have been in both our interests.’


    As per Nigel Farage and his lot in the Parliament and, it seems, the Government’s behaviour ever since 2015.
    If Brexit is stopped before it is ever implemented we are heading for a very dark place.

    Make no mistake.
    Inclined to agree, but a No Deal or chaotic Brexit will be the same.
    The most sustainable Remain solution would be for the EU to outbid May by offering a Remain deal that improves on Cameron’s offer with further mutual concessions on free movement with an admission that both sides got it wrong and both have learnt from the experience.

    However, they won’t do that. Because they have zero self awareness, aren’t capable of any form of magnanimity and are only fixated on overplaying their hand.
    To be fair to the EU, their strategy of demanding unconditional surrender is perfectly logical. It worked in Greece, and with the support of much of the UK’s economic, political, media, academic and administrative elites, surely they’ve got a good chance of steamrolling public option here?
    Did it work in Greece? It’s a country now chock-full of resentment and hatred to the EU.

    I also don’t see them winning many hearts and minds in Poland or Hungary either.

    It might ‘work’ in the short-term but by sowing the wind they will eventually reap the whirlwind.
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    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    I also see Sir John Major has joined Tory MPs like Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston, Guto Bebb and now Heidi Allen in backing a 'People's Vote' and a second EU referendum

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45690002?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cwlw3xz0lvvt/brexit&link_location=live-reporting-story

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45690898

    The other people in that list only confirm what a totally fringe option a second referendum is for Conservatives. Those with something between their ears realise it would blow the party to smithereens.
    In the event of No Deal Amber Rudd has also said she would vote for a second EU referendum, around 40 Tory MPs would do so and add the LDs, the SNP, Plaid, Lucas, Hermon and Labour (if they cannot get another general election) and you have a majority of the House of Commons for a second EU referendum if No Deal.

    Polls show Remain would win by at least 10% if No Deal, No Deal is not sustainable for the country or a Tory Party that wants to stay in government
    You have just created yet another fantasy for yourself - a remain v no deal referendum.

    Of course, in the real world, this would be impossible because the Leavers would not back no deal, they would say it was the option proposed by a remainer (May) and if they had been in charge all along there would have been a deal. So the referendum would be an utter shambles and not resolve anything with an almost certain boycott from the Leavers on the grounds they don’t support either option.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,609

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    I also see Sir John Major has joined Tory MPs like Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston, Guto Bebb and now Heidi Allen in backing a 'People's Vote' and a second EU referendum

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45690002?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cwlw3xz0lvvt/brexit&link_location=live-reporting-story

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45690898

    The other people in that list only confirm what a totally fringe option a second referendum is for Conservatives. Those with something between their ears realise it would blow the party to smithereens.
    In the event of No Deal Amber Rudd has also said she would vote for a second EU referendum, around 40 Tory MPs would do so and add the LDs, the SNP, Plaid, Lucas, Hermon and Labour (if they cannot get another general election) and you have a majority of the House of Commons for a second EU referendum if No Deal.

    Polls show Remain would win by at least 10% if No Deal, No Deal is not sustainable for the country or a Tory Party that wants to stay in government
    You have just created yet another fantasy for yourself - a remain v no deal referendum.

    Of course, in the real world, this would be impossible because the Leavers would not back no deal, they would say it was the option proposed by a remainer (May) and if they had been in charge all along there would have been a deal. So the referendum would be an utter shambles and not resolve anything with an almost certain boycott from the Leavers on the grounds they don’t support either option.
    If a boycott is all that stands in the way, bring it on.
    :smile:
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    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Bloody hell, Tiger Woods picked again this afternoon....bloody mental.

    More interested in the US TV audiences and sponsors than in winning the cup?
    I'm more interested in not losing even more money.....
    A bad afternoon for the USA, and tomorrow is looking close to a dead rubber....
    And me shopping in Lidl for Christmas lunch....do they do a knock-off version of Nyetimber and is it any good?
    Have you got a spread bet on the USA?
    Nods sheepishly. I have covered with some of it, but still my main betting was based on thinking USA winning comfortably.

    In all seriousness, I am obviously joking about Lidl, I just punt on sports for a bit of fun. Long gone are the days when every day I had $1,000s at risk at the poker tables etc.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,609

    Excellent article.

    The sense of drift from the Tories is terrible.

    Absent a new leader, there seems to be very little chance of that changing.
    And of course a new leader could quite easily make things worse.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    In the event of No Deal Amber Rudd has also said she would vote for a second EU referendum, around 40 Tory MPs would do so and add the LDs, the SNP, Plaid, Lucas, Hermon and Labour (if they cannot get another general election) and you have a majority of the House of Commons for a second EU referendum if No Deal.

    Polls show Remain would win by at least 10% if No Deal, No Deal is not sustainable for the country or a Tory Party that wants to stay in government

    The problem for you Conservatives is that your party has been taken over by Tory hard-liners. They do not really want to stay in government, as you say. They much prefer to wreck everything, make an enormous profit for themselves while everybody else suffers, and then sheer off to leave others to pick up the pieces.

    Even with Russian funding and moral support from the likes of Trump, i do not think these hard-line Tories could ever win an election fairly.

    As with Labour, you need to identify with the middle ground. With the present cast, you cannot do that.
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    Nigelb said:

    Excellent article.

    The sense of drift from the Tories is terrible.

    Absent a new leader, there seems to be very little chance of that changing.
    And of course a new leader could quite easily make things worse.
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1046000105453760513
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,772
    A bit of levity is required, I think...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aG7-KcOq6OI
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    viewcode said:

    A bit of levity is required, I think...

    ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aG7-KcOq6OI

    That was quite good. We need more comedy in these times. :)
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    matt said:

    matt said:

    Labour are evangelising because they have an evangelist with a (barmy!) vision in charge

    The Conservatives are doing nothing because Brexit and Who Is The Next Leader is consuming all their attention, the country being forgotten in the midst of their obsessions.

    And that is where we are. Labour has a clear field to get its "New Communism" message out to the oppressed proletariat....

    The Labour Party had (has) a stand in the market square today. Half watching while drinking coffee, I wasn’t immediately convinced that the message is wholly working in this seat.
    You are probably correct, most people have no time for politics in their daily lives, but Labour is the only game in town at the moment. The LibDems are missing in action and the Tories are too busy sharpening their daggers.

    So, it is Labour or the fringe, fruitcake parties...
    An election could be 3.5 years away. Permanent readiness is wearing. There’s enough time for both the LDs and the Conservatives to reinvent themselves (although if one is writing the same a year from now it’s a harder argument).
    Which is why Cable needs to go now, not in a year’s time.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    In the event of No Deal Amber Rudd has also said she would vote for a second EU referendum, around 40 Tory MPs would do so and add the LDs, the SNP, Plaid, Lucas, Hermon and Labour (if they cannot get another general election) and you have a majority of the House of Commons for a second EU referendum if No Deal.

    Polls show Remain would win by at least 10% if No Deal, No Deal is not sustainable for the country or a Tory Party that wants to stay in government

    The problem for you Conservatives is that your party has been taken over by Tory hard-liners. They do not really want to stay in government, as you say. They much prefer to wreck everything, make an enormous profit for themselves while everybody else suffers, and then sheer off to leave others to pick up the pieces.

    Even with Russian funding and moral support from the likes of Trump, i do not think these hard-line Tories could ever win an election fairly.

    As with Labour, you need to identify with the middle ground. With the present cast, you cannot do that.
    To be honest I would rather be in opposition on a No Deal Brexit platform where we have Leavers behind us and can oppose a Corbyn minority government than in government trying to govern without a Deal and with the economic catastrophe and threat to the Union of No Deal
  • Options
    viewcode said:

    A bit of levity is required, I think...

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=aG7-KcOq6OI

    The lady who did the Corbyn Cult gag....will be added to the list of those to be sent to the gulag.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,609

    Nigelb said:

    Excellent article.

    The sense of drift from the Tories is terrible.

    Absent a new leader, there seems to be very little chance of that changing.
    And of course a new leader could quite easily make things worse.
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1046000105453760513
    Job ad ?

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    Nigelb said:

    Excellent article.

    The sense of drift from the Tories is terrible.

    Absent a new leader, there seems to be very little chance of that changing.
    And of course a new leader could quite easily make things worse.
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1046000105453760513
    Who says the Tories have run out of ideas....
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,999
    edited September 2018



    Did it work in Greece? It’s a country now chock-full of resentment and hatred to the EU.

    I also don’t see them winning many hearts and minds in Poland or Hungary either.

    It might ‘work’ in the short-term but by sowing the wind they will eventually reap the whirlwind.

    Grexit (along with Quitaly and Frortie) has never polled higher than 35%. The EU would work a lot harder to keep Greece in than the UK as, from a romantic and cultural perspective, it's a far more important component of the Paneuropean identity.
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    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Excellent article.

    The sense of drift from the Tories is terrible.

    Absent a new leader, there seems to be very little chance of that changing.
    And of course a new leader could quite easily make things worse.
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1046000105453760513
    Job ad ?

    Certainly how I read it !!!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited September 2018
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    matt said:

    Labour are evangelising because they have an evangelist with a (barmy!) vision in charge

    The Conservatives are doing nothing because Brexit and Who Is The Next Leader is consuming all their attention, the country being forgotten in the midst of their obsessions.

    And that is where we are. Labour has a clear field to get its "New Communism" message out to the oppressed proletariat....

    The Labour Party had (has) a stand in the market square today. Half watching while drinking coffee, I wasn’t immediately convinced that the message is wholly working in this seat.
    Sure. I get that. However, I don't recall seeing a Conservative or LD stall ever. There are frequent Labour ones round here, as well as leafleting of the train stations every strike day, which is today and seemingly every other day.
    And this is a Tory seat with a Tory council.
    The message may not connect. Most people aren't paying attention, or thinking about politics.
    But at least it is out there.
    As local Tories we canvass about once a month (except in summer) and put out an In Touch newsletter about once or twice a year and the LDs put out a Focus once a quarter, Labour do next to nothing here
    Maybe they need you up in Hexham then. There are Labour stalls every weekend in various towns and villages and at community events. Conservatives nowt.
    Whether it works is another question. But I doubt it harms.
    Hexham has a Tory MP and was Tory even in 1997 I believe, sometimes that leads to complacency.

    We are in the same boat in Epping Forest though
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    What the bloody hell are they doing at the 2nd hole....Saturday morning hackers....
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    I also see Sir John Major has joined Tory MPs like Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston, Guto Bebb and now Heidi Allen in backing a 'People's Vote' and a second EU referendum

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45690002?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cwlw3xz0lvvt/brexit&link_location=live-reporting-story

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45690898

    The other people in that list only confirm what a totally fringe option a second referendum is for Conservatives. Those with something between their ears realise it would blow the party to smithereens.
    In the event of No Deal Amber Rudd has also said she would vote for a second EU referendum, around 40 Tory MPs would do so and add the LDs, the SNP, Plaid, Lucas, Hermon and Labour (if they cannot get another general election) and you have a majority of the House of Commons for a second EU referendum if No Deal.

    Polls show Remain would win by at least 10% if No Deal, No Deal is not sustainable for the country or a Tory Party that wants to stay in government
    You have just created yet another fantasy for yourself - a remain v no deal referendum.

    Of course, in the real world, this would be impossible because the Leavers would not back no deal, they would say it was the option proposed by a remainer (May) and if they had been in charge all along there would have been a deal. So the referendum would be an utter shambles and not resolve anything with an almost certain boycott from the Leavers on the grounds they don’t support either option.
    Yet Remain would still win
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,975
    edited September 2018

    Nigelb said:

    Excellent article.

    The sense of drift from the Tories is terrible.

    Absent a new leader, there seems to be very little chance of that changing.
    And of course a new leader could quite easily make things worse.
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1046000105453760513
    That's as in 'Here's your opportunity, if you ever fancied leading you party ...'?

    Edit. Sorry, I saw a couple of you got there before me. As a slogan, it doesn't bode well.
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    Par 3 - Hole halved in 6....
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Mr Dancer’s bet on Bottas is looking good.
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    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Jonathan said:

    FPT

    Chris Leslie strikes me as someone more of the calibre of Simon Danczuk rather than the members of the SDP, unless people have billed them as much bigger than they were.

    Also I believe people should get to vote for what they really want, so if there really are thousands in Chris Leslie's constituency who are voting for him specifically they deserve the chance to vote for him again. I'll believe it when I see it though.

    With a few notable exceptions (maybe Frank Field), all Labour MPs would lose if they stood against their party on a point of principle. That's not the point.

    The point is that Labour needs to win under FPTP by being attractive to just enough voters to win seats. If you have a bunch of independent Labour MPs around the country each taking 5-20% of the vote with them... Bang! There goes your majority.

    Much better to realise that the people you're calling Tories are Labour too, just a different strand, and the fact they might think differently is a strength. They can reach people that Labour needs that Corbyn can't.
    Most of the potential "Independent" MP's are in safe Labour high majority constituencies. As has often been mentioned, there are not really that many swing seats at Westminster. Most of the potential independents, are mostly in trouble with their own clp's, local members and voters, by treating the local party support with an arrogant contempt. The many stories I have found in the media about non-attendance at any monthly meetings or even being in contact with the clp except then expecting full support at election time, and not being seen in their constituencies for months and in a few cases, in the years between elections.
    While the Labour Party was in government with large majorities then local members could be ignored while the call of the TV studio's and cameras enabled their voters to see them hard at work. Unfortunately, it was a bad habit that should have been broken after 2010, but wasn't.
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    Any racing gambler needs to know that the Morning Star's racing tipster,Farringdon,is top of the Naps Table turning a pound into £34.03 on every nap.Beat the bookies with the Morning Star.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Gap between the two main oil prices has almost reached $10.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,302
    The problem is the same as I mentioned in respect of @Tissue_Price's excellent piece this morning.

    Tories believe that a low taxed economy will be more successful but they face a situation where the upward pressures on public spending are almost unending. Social Care, health, defence, education, housing, it is never ending. These pressures have increased substantially while they have struggled to cope with the horrific deficit they inherited. There is now a crisis in local government spending, an appalling backlog on things like road maintenance, huge unmet need in Social Care causing bed blocking in the NHS and armed services that are losing deployment capability as a result of essential kit.

    The reality is that this government and the next government is going to be struggling to find the cash to meet these needs. They will edge up taxation where they can and all the proceeds of growth will get fed into more spending. A tory government will look pretty left wing by any historic standards.

    But, as Maggie once said, TINA.
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    There is some serious hacking going on in the golf this afternoon.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    edited September 2018

    Nigelb said:

    Excellent article.

    The sense of drift from the Tories is terrible.

    Absent a new leader, there seems to be very little chance of that changing.
    And of course a new leader could quite easily make things worse.
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1046000105453760513
    That's as in 'Here's your opportunity, if you ever fancied leading you party ...'?

    Edit. Sorry, I saw a couple of you got there before me. As a slogan, it doesn't bode well.
    Pretty much all slogans are very easy to reinterpret, or are hostages to fortune. It's better than 'Demand better' next to a picture of the leader's face I suppose.
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    Nottingham MP Chris Leslie loses no confidence vote

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-45691851
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    I also see Sir John Major has joined Tory MPs like Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston, Guto Bebb and now Heidi Allen in backing a 'People's Vote' and a second EU referendum

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45690002?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cwlw3xz0lvvt/brexit&link_location=live-reporting-story

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45690898

    The other people in that list only confirm what a totally fringe option a second referendum is for Conservatives. Those with something between their ears realise it would blow the party to smithereens.
    In the event of No Deal Amber Rudd has also said she would vote for a second EU referendum, around 40 Tory MPs would do so and add the LDs, the SNP, Plaid, Lucas, Hermon and Labour (if they cannot get another general election) and you have a majority of the House of Commons for a second EU referendum if No Deal
    They can’t vote for something the government does not propose.
    It will be proposed by the opposition, backbenchers and of course the likes of Soubry and Grieve will sabotage the government's agenda voting with the opposition if necessary and filibustering every government bill in order to paralyse the government if No Deal is in prospect with no second EU referendum. They may even vote with Labour to force a general election if No Deal is not put to the voters
    So the Conservative rebels will vote down the Keep Planes Flying Bill, the Keep Trucks Trucking Bill, and the Keep Nuclear Power Stations Open Bill..?
    Does it require legislation to withdraw our Article 50 notice?
    Probably, unless the Act which gave the government the ability to declare the notice also gave it the power to withdraw it, which would seem an odd inclusion for what was, IIRC, a very small Act.
    We cannot pass a law saying that the EU have to recognise the withdrawal though.
    Well indeed. Usually waived away with a 'politics will see it done', but it could be problematic.
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    Jonathan said:

    FPT

    Chris Leslie strikes me as someone more of the calibre of Simon Danczuk rather than the members of the SDP, unless people have billed them as much bigger than they were.

    Also I believe people should get to vote for what they really want, so if there really are thousands in Chris Leslie's constituency who are voting for him specifically they deserve the chance to vote for him again. I'll believe it when I see it though.

    With a few notable exceptions (maybe Frank Field), all Labour MPs would lose if they stood against their party on a point of principle. That's not the point.

    The point is that Labour needs to win under FPTP by being attractive to just enough voters to win seats. If you have a bunch of independent Labour MPs around the country each taking 5-20% of the vote with them... Bang! There goes your majority.

    Much better to realise that the people you're calling Tories are Labour too, just a different strand, and the fact they might think differently is a strength. They can reach people that Labour needs that Corbyn can't.
    Is Field particularly revered in his constituency? I'm not saying he isn't, but I just can't think of any reason why he would be. Of course, many Tories regard him as a kind of pet, but I'd have thought that would actually lessen his standing amongst most of constituents.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,609
    MD’s Bottas bet looking good.
    Time to lay ?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,609

    There is some serious hacking going on in the golf this afternoon.

    Putin interfering again ?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Nigelb said:

    MD’s Bottas bet looking good.
    Time to lay ?

    I think Lewis will get pole from here, but four milliseconds in favour of Mr Dancer at the moment.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860

    Nigelb said:

    Excellent article.

    The sense of drift from the Tories is terrible.

    Absent a new leader, there seems to be very little chance of that changing.
    And of course a new leader could quite easily make things worse.
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1046000105453760513
    That's as in 'Here's your opportunity, if you ever fancied leading you party ...'?

    Edit. Sorry, I saw a couple of you got there before me. As a slogan, it doesn't bode well.
    Best make sure glue is stronger than last year or we could have an O t it situation
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,609
    Dura_Ace said:



    Did it work in Greece? It’s a country now chock-full of resentment and hatred to the EU.

    I also don’t see them winning many hearts and minds in Poland or Hungary either.

    It might ‘work’ in the short-term but by sowing the wind they will eventually reap the whirlwind.

    Grexit (along with Quitaly and Frortie) has never polled higher than 35%. The EU would work a lot harder to keep Greece in than the UK as, from a romantic and cultural perspective, it's a far more important component of the Paneuropean identity.
    Frortie ?
    Is that a sexual activity prevalent in the navy ?

    (You really ought to do an article on military terminology some day.)

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750

    Nigelb said:

    Excellent article.

    The sense of drift from the Tories is terrible.

    Absent a new leader, there seems to be very little chance of that changing.
    And of course a new leader could quite easily make things worse.
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1046000105453760513
    That's as in 'Here's your opportunity, if you ever fancied leading you party ...'?

    Edit. Sorry, I saw a couple of you got there before me. As a slogan, it doesn't bode well.
    Best make sure glue is stronger than last year or we could have an O t it situation
    It'll be painted on a blue backdrop. Cannot have just a blank one of course, too easy to green screen.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Well done Morris Dancer.
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    AndyJS said:
    To be honest, I'm getting a bit bored with these right-wing shock jocks. Yes, it was amusing for a while and it is often right to prick liberal pomposity, but it's been going on for years now and has become a media industry in itself. Let's move on.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Jonathan said:

    FPT

    Chris Leslie strikes me as someone more of the calibre of Simon Danczuk rather than the members of the SDP, unless people have billed them as much bigger than they were.

    Also I believe people should get to vote for what they really want, so if there really are thousands in Chris Leslie's constituency who are voting for him specifically they deserve the chance to vote for him again. I'll believe it when I see it though.

    Is Field particularly revered in his constituency? I'm not saying he isn't, but I just can't think of any reason why he would be. Of course, many Tories regard him as a kind of pet, but I'd have thought that would actually lessen his standing amongst most of constituents.

    Jonathan said:

    FPT

    Chris Leslie strikes me as someone more of the calibre of Simon Danczuk rather than the members of the SDP, unless people have billed them as much bigger than they were.

    Also I believe people should get to vote for what they really want, so if there really are thousands in Chris Leslie's constituency who are voting for him specifically they deserve the chance to vote for him again. I'll believe it when I see it though.

    With a few notable exceptions (maybe Frank Field), all Labour MPs would lose if they stood against their party on a point of principle. That's not the point.

    The point is that Labour needs to win under FPTP by being attractive to just enough voters to win seats. If you have a bunch of independent Labour MPs around the country each taking 5-20% of the vote with them... Bang! There goes your majority.

    Much better to realise that the people you're calling Tories are Labour too, just a different strand, and the fact they might think differently is a strength. They can reach people that Labour needs that Corbyn can't.
    Is Field particularly revered in his constituency? I'm not saying he isn't, but I just can't think of any reason why he would be. Of course, many Tories regard him as a kind of pet, but I'd have thought that would actually lessen his standing amongst most of constituents.
    I believe he is thought to be a very good constituency MP.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,609
    Sandpit said:

    Well done Morris Dancer.

    Yes, a very good call.
    Hamilton probably had the pace, but overdrove a bit, with the expected consequences.

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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,999
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Did it work in Greece? It’s a country now chock-full of resentment and hatred to the EU.

    I also don’t see them winning many hearts and minds in Poland or Hungary either.

    It might ‘work’ in the short-term but by sowing the wind they will eventually reap the whirlwind.

    Grexit (along with Quitaly and Frortie) has never polled higher than 35%. The EU would work a lot harder to keep Greece in than the UK as, from a romantic and cultural perspective, it's a far more important component of the Paneuropean identity.
    Frortie ?
    Is that a sexual activity prevalent in the navy ?

    (You really ought to do an article on military terminology some day.)

    It's the neologism used in Francophone media for the hypothesis of France leaving the EU (France + Sortie).

    The gentle souls on here can only withstand the mildest of anecdotes about adventures encountered on Pusser's War Canoes.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    alex. said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    I also see Sir John Major has joined Tory MPs like Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston, Guto Bebb and now Heidi Allen in backing a 'People's Vote' and a second EU referendum

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45690002?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cwlw3xz0lvvt/brexit&link_location=live-reporting-story

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45690898

    The other people in that list only confirm what a totally fringe option a second referendum is for Conservatives. Those with something between their ears realise it would blow the party to smithereens.
    No-one brings the UK to heel. No-one.
    'If it does happen I’d advocate scorched earth
    If Brexit is stopped before it is ever implemented we are heading for a very dark place.

    Make no mistake.
    Inclined to agree, but a No Deal or chaotic Brexit will be the same.
    The most sustainable Remain solution would be for the EU to outbid May by offering a Remain deal that improves on Cameron’s offer with further mutual concessions on free movement with an admission that both sides got it wrong and both have learnt from the experience.

    However, they won’t do that. Because they have zero self awareness, aren’t capable of any form of magnanimity and are only fixated on overplaying their hand.
    To be fair to the EU, their strategy of demanding unconditional surrender is perfectly logical. It worked in Greece, and with the support of much of the UK’s economic, political, media, academic and administrative elites, surely they’ve got a good chance of steamrolling public option here?
    Did it work in Greece? It’s a country now chock-full of resentment and hatred to the EU.

    I also don’t see them winning many hearts and minds in Poland or Hungary either.

    It might ‘work’ in the short-term but by sowing the wind they will eventually reap the whirlwind.
    It has worked on their terms. Undemocratic polities (Austria-Hungary, China, the EU) don’t fundamentally care what the populace thinks, until it affects their ability to maintain control of power and territory. That has not happened in Greece, and nobody else is thinking about leaving.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,609
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Did it work in Greece? It’s a country now chock-full of resentment and hatred to the EU.

    I also don’t see them winning many hearts and minds in Poland or Hungary either.

    It might ‘work’ in the short-term but by sowing the wind they will eventually reap the whirlwind.

    Grexit (along with Quitaly and Frortie) has never polled higher than 35%. The EU would work a lot harder to keep Greece in than the UK as, from a romantic and cultural perspective, it's a far more important component of the Paneuropean identity.
    Frortie ?
    Is that a sexual activity prevalent in the navy ?

    (You really ought to do an article on military terminology some day.)

    It's the neologism used in Francophone media for the hypothesis of France leaving the EU (France + Sortie).

    The gentle souls on here can only withstand the mildest of anecdotes about adventures encountered on Pusser's War Canoes.
    Of course, and thanks.

    As for the terminology, I didn’t mean exclusively scatalogical... but there again that might make it a short article ?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,629
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Did it work in Greece? It’s a country now chock-full of resentment and hatred to the EU.

    I also don’t see them winning many hearts and minds in Poland or Hungary either.

    It might ‘work’ in the short-term but by sowing the wind they will eventually reap the whirlwind.

    Grexit (along with Quitaly and Frortie) has never polled higher than 35%. The EU would work a lot harder to keep Greece in than the UK as, from a romantic and cultural perspective, it's a far more important component of the Paneuropean identity.
    Frortie ?
    Is that a sexual activity prevalent in the navy ?

    (You really ought to do an article on military terminology some day.)

    It's the neologism used in Francophone media for the hypothesis of France leaving the EU (France + Sortie).

    The gentle souls on here can only withstand the mildest of anecdotes about adventures encountered on Pusser's War Canoes.
    Of course, and thanks.

    As for the terminology, I didn’t mean exclusively scatalogical... but there again that might make it a short article ?
    Rick Jolly* wrote a good book on Navy Slang:

    https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/jackspeak-9781844861446/

    *Who seemingly holds a unique accolade in being decorated by both sides for his role in a conflict. An inspiring man, who I met some years ago on a boozy night in Haslar.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897

    This is profoundly embarrassing:
    ttps://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1046019564033765376

    Jeez, who are the idiots that politicians have working in IT? Don’t they do the most basic of QA on anything any more?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335



    Did it work in Greece? It’s a country now chock-full of resentment and hatred to the EU.

    I also don’t see them winning many hearts and minds in Poland or Hungary either.

    It might ‘work’ in the short-term but by sowing the wind they will eventually reap the whirlwind.

    The last poll I saw was last year, showing a sharp upturn in Greek support for the EU, albeit from a low base. Poland and Hungary were positively keen. The views of the governments aren't always representative, although Fidesz in Hungary is still riding high.

    http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/15/post-brexit-europeans-more-favorable-toward-eu/
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Sandpit said:

    This is profoundly embarrassing:
    ttps://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1046019564033765376

    Jeez, who are the idiots that politicians have working in IT? Don’t they do the most basic of QA on anything any more?
    More than anything else, while it is bad IT, asking if that sort of thing could happen seems a pretty basic thing for even a non-IT person to ask before the thing gets rolled out.
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    Sandpit said:

    This is profoundly embarrassing:
    ttps://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1046019564033765376

    Jeez, who are the idiots that politicians have working in IT? Don’t they do the most basic of QA on anything any more?
    Well, it's the suppliers that are at fault here. It will be interesting to see the fallout (apparently login has now been disabled, so at least someone's in the office on a Saturday).
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited September 2018
    Sandpit said:

    This is profoundly embarrassing:
    ttps://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1046019564033765376

    Jeez, who are the idiots that politicians have working in IT? Don’t they do the most basic of QA on anything any more?
    Politicians and the internet....example #9574730....but we definitely need an internet regulator, have to have validated social media profiles, pron bans, backdoors into iPhones, etc etc etc...
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335

    Any racing gambler needs to know that the Morning Star's racing tipster,Farringdon,is top of the Naps Table turning a pound into £34.03 on every nap.Beat the bookies with the Morning Star.

    That's a reversion to type - the Daily Worker used to be famous for its good tips.

    To respond to Jonathan, I disagree with the votes of no confidence (pointless gestures by a subset of local members), and think the vast majority of Labour members will be happy to reselect MPs if the MPs make it clear that they will in the end actually support a Labour government as currently led - by all means with dissent and exceptions (that's where the parallel with JC's own record is compelling).

    If not, then they shouldn't seek to stand as Labour candidates, for everyone's sake - members, voters and the MPs themselves: a Labour candidate who doesn't want Labour to win is just being silly. In the same way, I think that no matter how often she disagrees with the leadership, if Anna Soubry confirms that she'll seek to support a continuing Conservative government, she'll be reselected by her constituency association as the Conservative candidate.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,629
    Sandpit said:

    This is profoundly embarrassing:
    ttps://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1046019564033765376

    Jeez, who are the idiots that politicians have working in IT? Don’t they do the most basic of QA on anything any more?
    https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1046035077203939328?s=19
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    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    This is profoundly embarrassing:
    ttps://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1046019564033765376

    Jeez, who are the idiots that politicians have working in IT? Don’t they do the most basic of QA on anything any more?
    https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1046035077203939328?s=19
    The Conservative Party or the app supplier?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,629

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    This is profoundly embarrassing:
    ttps://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1046019564033765376

    Jeez, who are the idiots that politicians have working in IT? Don’t they do the most basic of QA on anything any more?
    https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1046035077203939328?s=19
    The Conservative Party or the app supplier?
    Presumably tha app supplier was acting as an agent of the Party.

    It will be interesting to see the links between contacts, it could show a bit of daylight on some murky worlds.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited September 2018
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    This is profoundly embarrassing:
    ttps://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1046019564033765376

    Jeez, who are the idiots that politicians have working in IT? Don’t they do the most basic of QA on anything any more?
    https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1046035077203939328?s=19
    The Conservative Party or the app supplier?
    Presumably tha app supplier was acting as an agent of the Party.

    It will be interesting to see the links between contacts, it could show a bit of daylight on some murky worlds.
    Presumably though isnt it just the personal information they supplied to register for the conference - which in most cases might well be work emails and work mobiles rather than personal ones? I doubt they will have provided the mobiles of wives/mistresses/boyfriends? Still quite serious if it involves senior ministers personal contacts.

    At least it won't be difficult to contact journos and politicians for comment on the story!
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    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    This is profoundly embarrassing:
    ttps://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1046019564033765376

    Jeez, who are the idiots that politicians have working in IT? Don’t they do the most basic of QA on anything any more?
    https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1046035077203939328?s=19
    The Conservative Party or the app supplier?
    Presumably tha app supplier was acting as an agent of the Party.

    It will be interesting to see the links between contacts, it could show a bit of daylight on some murky worlds.
    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1046039014195810305?s=21
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    Is it prudent for her to have tweeted what she just did?
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    brendan16 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    This is profoundly embarrassing:
    ttps://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1046019564033765376

    Jeez, who are the idiots that politicians have working in IT? Don’t they do the most basic of QA on anything any more?
    https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1046035077203939328?s=19
    The Conservative Party or the app supplier?
    Presumably tha app supplier was acting as an agent of the Party.

    It will be interesting to see the links between contacts, it could show a bit of daylight on some murky worlds.
    Presumably though isnt it just the personal information they supplied to register for the conference - which in most cases might well be work emails and work mobiles rather than personal ones? I doubt they will have provided the mobiles of wives/mistresses/boyfriends?

    At least it won't be difficult to contact journos and politicians for comment on the story!
    Big assumption about a load of people who are generally technically illiterate. It showed during the hacking scandal, how many Labour ministers hadn't listen to a word of the security advice.
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    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    This is profoundly embarrassing:
    ttps://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1046019564033765376

    Jeez, who are the idiots that politicians have working in IT? Don’t they do the most basic of QA on anything any more?
    https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1046035077203939328?s=19
    The Conservative Party or the app supplier?
    I would have thought the Conservative Party has a case against the App supplier, however,

    Those whose details have been divulged have a case against the Conservative Party.
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    Opposition politicians have demanded answers following reports that one of the sexual harassment claims made against Alex Salmond was first investigated five years ago.


    Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish Government was urged to respond to the “serious revelation” that a complaint by a female member of staff was examined in 2013, five years before civil servants conducted a second investigation into her allegations of sexual misconduct.


    https://www.scotsman.com/news/anger-over-claims-alex-salmond-was-first-investigated-in-2013-1-4807242
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    Looks like Fake news outlet evolve have also admitted to it....
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2018
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    This is profoundly embarrassing:
    ttps://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1046019564033765376

    Jeez, who are the idiots that politicians have working in IT? Don’t they do the most basic of QA on anything any more?
    https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1046035077203939328?s=19
    Isn't this a bit like saying "my neighbour left their door unlocked when they went away, so I went in and stole some of their stuff just to show how stupid they were!"

    EDIT: Or what Tissue Price (or James Ball) said.
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    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: bit lucky with the Bottas bet. Didn't think he'd get pole, but had a good chance of second. Anyway, splendid start to the weekend, although I'm even more regretting not backing him to win each way at 8.5. One suspects his odds have shortened.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    It's rather worse than letters fallling off the back of the stage.

    Everyone at Conference is going to be distracted by checking what they are supposedly texting.....
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    edited September 2018

    Sandpit said:

    This is profoundly embarrassing:
    ttps://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1046019564033765376

    Jeez, who are the idiots that politicians have working in IT? Don’t they do the most basic of QA on anything any more?
    Well, it's the suppliers that are at fault here. It will be interesting to see the fallout (apparently login has now been disabled, so at least someone's in the office on a Saturday).
    That’s shocking. I’m doing some work with a competitor of whoever is the conference app supplier, I might have them give CCHQ a nudge in a couple of weeks... ;)

    Edit. Maybe let’s make it a couple of months, for the new CIO to get his or her feet under the desk. They’ll be looking for the new CIO next week.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited September 2018

    It's rather worse than letters fallling off the back of the stage.

    Everyone at Conference is going to be distracted by checking what they are supposedly texting.....
    Well and also it affects journos and we all know how much the media love talking about the media. This could result in lots of column inches / breathless reporting.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Is it prudent for her to have tweeted what she just did?
    If she logged into the app, clicked on Boris Johnson as a conference registrant and his email and phone number were listed on the app I don't see its her fault?
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,854
    Afternoon all :)

    Interesting to read the special pleading of both Aaron and David on here today. There's little doubt there is a perception (accurate or otherwise) Labour has taken some form of advantage in terms of the non-Brexit political landscape.

    As others have said, it's no use the Conservatives pointing out the holes in Labour plans if all they have to offer is more of the same because "more of the same" isn't going to be attractive to a lot of people who will vote FOR change without even caring what that change is or what it means because it will be something different (or at least promises to be).

    As a non-Conservative, I'm also conscious that Aaron's piece is more about chasing the voters - the more successful political parties have persuaded the voters to come to them. If all the Conservatives are about is the preservation of themselves in office and all their methodology is based on looking to which focus groups or voting blocs can keep them there, then maybe it's time for some quality years in Opposition.

    In any case, the rhetoric of improving justice will run up against the reality of Police station closures and falling Police numbers dictated by austerity.

    The aspect of Corbyn that struck a real chord for me was his use of the term "human". He claimed a labour Government would be more "humane" and I liked that. Too often politics gets reduced to mechanistic overtones but in the end it should be about the good Governance of the country for the benefit of all its citizens.

    The Conservative Government, while no doubt privately all good and kind people, doesn't exude empathy in large quantities. Some of its members, including, dare I say it the Prime Minister, seem less to lack the common touch as the human touch. I am regaled on here constantly by what a nice person Theresa May is in private (and I've heard the same from Tin Farron too) but that doesn't get conveyed in the public arena. There is a froideur, a reticence that we saw in the GE and still gets portrayed too strongly.
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    Ladbrokes appears to be down.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    brendan16 said:

    Is it prudent for her to have tweeted what she just did?
    If she logged into the app, clicked on Boris Johnson as a conference registrant and his email and phone number were listed on the app I don't see its her fault?
    That’s not what it sounds like, people were talking about being able to log in and post a message as someone else.

    I’m guessing that they’ve done something really stupid like set the username and password as the email address, then asked people to change the password the first time they log in. So if you know the email address of someone who’s not used the app yet, you can log in as them and view their own profile.
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    F1: Ladbrokes back up but markets only partly there.

    Still very red season-long, but including off-book bets, I've just nudged into the green. Huzzah!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited September 2018
    Sandpit said:

    brendan16 said:

    Is it prudent for her to have tweeted what she just did?
    If she logged into the app, clicked on Boris Johnson as a conference registrant and his email and phone number were listed on the app I don't see its her fault?
    That’s not what it sounds like, people were talking about being able to log in and post a message as someone else.

    I’m guessing that they’ve done something really stupid like set the username and password as the email address, then asked people to change the password the first time they log in. So if you know the email address of someone who’s not used the app yet, you can log in as them and view their own profile.
    One has to ask why did they need to have personal details in the app at all. In fact, is there really a need for an app.

    There does seem an obsession for having to make an app for everything these days, most of which is trash.
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Data leak at the Conservative Party conference? An app with insecure log-in details? This shambles wouldn't have happened when Norman Tebbit was party chairman.
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    JohnLoony said:

    Data leak at the Conservative Party conference? An app with insecure log-in details? This shambles wouldn't have happened when Norman Tebbit was party chairman.

    LOL. True.
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    F1: and back down again.

    I may well end up writing the pre-race tosh tomorrow morning. So fret not if that be the case.
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    New thread.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,854
    edited September 2018
    An excellent piece for me from the always readable Simon Jenkins:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/28/take-control-brussels-london-whitehall-centralised

    It's disappointing the LDs are so obsessed with stopping Brexit they aren't running with this which is frankly a damning indictment of our over-centralised State.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    If I was writing the PM's speech I would include two big ticket items:

    1. £3000 worth of travel costs relief at basic rate, something only those who work benefit from. Loads of companies have travel loan programmes, it wouldn't be difficult to offer basic rate relief.

    2. Mortgage interest relief at the basic rate for first time buyers for the first 5 years of a mortgage.

    Fuck the deficit, there's no votes in fiscal continence at the moment. We need to win in 2022, even if it means a little bit less tax take.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897

    Sandpit said:

    brendan16 said:

    Is it prudent for her to have tweeted what she just did?
    If she logged into the app, clicked on Boris Johnson as a conference registrant and his email and phone number were listed on the app I don't see its her fault?
    That’s not what it sounds like, people were talking about being able to log in and post a message as someone else.

    I’m guessing that they’ve done something really stupid like set the username and password as the email address, then asked people to change the password the first time they log in. So if you know the email address of someone who’s not used the app yet, you can log in as them and view their own profile.
    One has to ask why did they need to have personal details in the app at all. In fact, is there really a need for an app.

    There does seem an obsession for having to make an app for everything these days, most of which is trash.
    I’ll guess that the contact details are there to allow delegates to send each other ‘virtual’ business cards during the conference via the app, or similar functionality. Collecting details is useful for the organiser’s post-Conference reporting, to allow followup and feedback.

    The app itself is very useful for the conference organiser, it allows them to see who attends each event and room, see who meets with each other, allows functionality like voting buttons in the meetings, social media integration etc. For the delegate, it provides them a schedule, notifies of changes of time and venue, allows delegates to message each other and exchange details etc.
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT

    Chris Leslie strikes me as someone more of the calibre of Simon Danczuk rather than the members of the SDP, unless people have billed them as much bigger than they were.

    Also I believe people should get to vote for what they really want, so if there really are thousands in Chris Leslie's constituency who are voting for him specifically they deserve the chance to vote for him again. I'll believe it when I see it though.

    With a few notable exceptions (maybe Frank Field), all Labour MPs would lose if they stood against their party on a point of principle. That's not the point.

    The point is that Labour needs to win under FPTP by being attractive to just enough voters to win seats. If you have a bunch of independent Labour MPs around the country each taking 5-20% of the vote with them... Bang! There goes your majority.

    Much better to realise that the people you're calling Tories are Labour too, just a different strand, and the fact they might think differently is a strength. They can reach people that Labour needs that Corbyn can't.
    As I said on another thread I was saying he would actively prefer a Tory government as I believe he would prefer a Tory government like Woodcock actively stated he would when he could talk more freely.

    Chris Leslie is not a strength, he is not a difference of opinion or someone adding to the mixture, he is someone who actively does not want the party to succeed with the leader its members want it to have.
    It isn't the membership that is being deselected. It is MPs that are actively creating bad press for the party and making it harder to get the party elected.

    Put it another way then, I don't mind as much having the Corbyn types remaining as MPs opposing Labour to some degree, it is the George Galloway types after Iraq. From the opposite ideological angle but does that make more sense now?
    So you oppose the return of Derek Hatton and would oppose the return of Galloway?
    As MPs or in any kind of role with power yes. In terms of just being members I'm pretty easy going. I'm not generally the type calling for Blair to be thrown out the party. Unless we actually have a good and valid reason to do so I wouldn't want any MPs that are deselected to be thrown out the party as members. In Frank Fields case it was necessary but I'd accept him as a member no questions happily.

    I wouldn't even bar them from holding any position on the Labour Party like I could see a valid reason to do if Galloway or Degsy were let back in.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,609
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Did it work in Greece? It’s a country now chock-full of resentment and hatred to the EU.

    I also don’t see them winning many hearts and minds in Poland or Hungary either.

    It might ‘work’ in the short-term but by sowing the wind they will eventually reap the whirlwind.

    Grexit (along with Quitaly and Frortie) has never polled higher than 35%. The EU would work a lot harder to keep Greece in than the UK as, from a romantic and cultural perspective, it's a far more important component of the Paneuropean identity.
    Frortie ?
    Is that a sexual activity prevalent in the navy ?

    (You really ought to do an article on military terminology some day.)

    It's the neologism used in Francophone media for the hypothesis of France leaving the EU (France + Sortie).

    The gentle souls on here can only withstand the mildest of anecdotes about adventures encountered on Pusser's War Canoes.
    Of course, and thanks.

    As for the terminology, I didn’t mean exclusively scatalogical... but there again that might make it a short article ?
    Rick Jolly* wrote a good book on Navy Slang:

    https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/jackspeak-9781844861446/

    *Who seemingly holds a unique accolade in being decorated by both sides for his role in a conflict. An inspiring man, who I met some years ago on a boozy night in Haslar.
    Thanks. I might pick that up
This discussion has been closed.