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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit: The three key concessions
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit: The three key concessions
I have been wary of writing on Brexit. The vast majority of the visitors to this site are clearly informed – and informedly clear – with respect to their opinions on the matter. However, with Mike’s indulgence, I would like to pose some questions for discussion.
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She has to go.
She'll have to go next week surely?
As Aaron says: Lisbon. Our leaders totally screwed up by not doing what they said they would.
Turns out he was full of piss and wind.
She clashed with both Gove and Ozzy when she was Home Secretary, so it was payback time for her.
A free trade agreement within single market along the lines of a Norway agreement. Buckets of fudge by the government to show how they were clamping down on free movement by putting in the controls allowed that we have never bothered to do much about. A contribution of a few billion to cover the costs of running the single market.
As he should have done.
On another topic, Johnny Mercer should have the whip withdrawn. I don’t think the House of Commons has a shortage of narcissistic ex-servicemen. Perhaps he can go back to starring in shampoo adverts.
An inexplicable and idiotic omission.
There’s simply no way I’d vote for a Brexit deal with a full permanent customs union with the EU no-holds-barred, and I wouldn’t expect many others to either.
I therefore expect the withdrawal agreement to fail to pass our Parliament, and no deal as very much odds on.
We need to make an actual decision and go with it. May is too impotent and untrusted to do so. Making an actual decision will burn some bridges and annoy some people. So be it. That's politics for you, making decisions doesn't keep everyone happy. We can't 'have our cake and eat it' as the Europeans love to say. So which do we go for? Let us replace May and finally and belatedly make a choice.
A choice that on topic likely should have been made before triggering Article 50. Or at least at one of these stages.
David Cameron himself threatened on multiple occasions that he'd trigger A50 the morning after the referendum.
Most Leave voters thought it sounded like a good idea but it was more bullshit from the political class!
But again it nails the lie that people didn't know what they were voting for (they did) or that "No Deal" wasn't factored in for a lot of Leave voters (it was)
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/97494/half-brits-want-second-brexit-referendum-if-no-deal-agreed
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
Who is the alternative? Unless they are going to accept the SM+CU backstop the only alternative is No Deal which within a few months will likely lead to EUref2 or a second general election and Remain
The total certainty of your posts is also bizarre, and unjustified. No-one can accurately predict the dynamics of a second referendum campaign.
Utter utter fools.
I think triggering Article 50 so early is the biggie. Setting a two-year deadline before there was any desired outcome worked out, or contingency plans drawn up for a worst-case "No Deal" scenario, was ridiculous. And tbh I think the decision was only taken because May was already thinking about a snap election right from the beginning - she wanted to be able to say to Brexit voters that a concrete step had been taken (and not leave any space for UKIP), even though taking that concrete step so early screwed our chances of getting a good deal.
Read OpenEurope’s report on it. Very little difference by 2030, even versus the Remain base scenario.
Seems to me the only way out of the backstop impasse, given neither side can back down, and the way to avoid the risk of no deal by accident, is that we simply get on with negotiating the future arrangements between the EU and UK, come up with something that keeps an open border in Ireland, and park the actual leaving until that's sorted. No need for the backstop then. And we avoid blind Brexit.
Takes longer, it could be 2021 or later before we leave so we have to forego the March 2019 date, the EU backtrack on sequencing and have to play it differently. But it might be the only way out which allows both sides' red lines to be met.
I don't think that there was any choice but to trigger A50 - the EU wouldn't negotiate in advance. There was no way to make them. The people had voted. It had to be done.
The sequencing climbdown should never have been agreed. The EU started in a weak position because the treaties clearly do not establish any rights to a Brexit Bill. They are also unable to agree a trade deal in the A50 process. Logic was therefore that the UK would never agree the bill because the EU could not agree trade - the correct approach was to deal with both after Brexit, build a transition and agree the technical issues. The UK should have refused to even start negotiations until it was agreed that all issues would be discussed at once. It was the single biggest mistake because it showed the EU that May would never actually stand up to them and walk out, even temporarily. But if you are going to walk out, you do it early. Then you have time to come back and mend fences. Show weakness early and you are always on the back foot.
The backstop was a gross tactical error and entirely belongs to May. All she had to do is say we will agree the Bill but we will never even discuss a backstop. We will pledge to avoid no hard border but nothing more. There are no excuses for conceding this. It was simply because May was not prepared to go beyond December without passing Phase 1. Everyone told her not to do it. She will be kicked out because of it. The worst decision I have ever seen from a PM in my lifetime.
Ultimately, all these issues have one thing in common. May does not work from principle or from a plan. She is a middle manager. She simply does whatever she feels like she has to do to get to tomorrow. The backstop text, as the OP says, is contradictory and impossible. No serious negotiator would have agreed it. But for May, it kicked the can down the road.
What has been proven today is that when your only approach is survival, you can change the timing, you can't change the endgame.
https://twitter.com/AlanHinnrichs/status/1051908010438742016
Or something..
You don't call an election and then shirk from the voters, that was utterly pathetic and I don't know how anyone can respect her since.
No Deal would probably end up with about 45% ie about the same total as committed Scottish nationalists got in indyref 2014
Get out. Just get out now.
And I’d never advocate or support the use of force against our fellow Britons, in whatever part of our constituent nations.
Sure, I’d be very upset but, if they want to go, we have to let them.
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/10/fox-go-for-the-export-dividend-based-on-a-ten-per-cent-uplift-in-exports-the-budget-deficit-could-reduce-by-some-20-billion-his-trade-speech-full-text.html
Gove has pissed off a lot of people, from Cameroons, to Boris fans, to the ERG who think he's the Marshal Petain of the Brexiteers.
If I had a pound for every post on here that said May's about to get ousted I could have retired by now.
Oh, just remembered, I am already retired
As far as she’s concerned she spent two years working out Chequers was the answer, and that’s the end of the matter.
Kind of puts the "no alternative to May" talk into context. There's always an alternative, if May was hit by a bus tomorrow an alternative would have to be found. Gove seems like a fitting one.
Funnily enough, Osborne does. Is that a case of one c*nt to another?
It was done without any concept of what the preferred end goal was.
Indeed, that question has yet to be hammered out. We ought to be approaching the point of beginning to think about calling Article 50. Probably, post a Second Referendum or GE to determine what our intention actually is.
Had we triggered 6 months later, I think we'd simply be in today's situation next April. Though as you and @RoyalBlue say, we could and should have done more work on No Deal in that time.
It's not the timing of it that's the real problem, it's the fact of its wording.
Boris isn’t a dolt. The ERG would take him over May or Boris.
With No Deal we would leave our largest export market without even a free trade deal, manufacturers and banks are all threatening to go if that is the case.
Scotland and NI may go, collapsing a centuries old Union for a No Deal Brexit polling shows not even English voters back.
Forget Suez or the fall of Singapore, this would be the greatest national humiliation since we lost the American War of Independence 250 years ago, whoever was PM at the time would go down as the Lord North of our age for centuries.
Even the Tories being out of office for 20 years would be small fry in comparison, it would be define our nation and our generation for the rest of our lives
My view is that if it’s our membership of the EU that’s the only thing that’s holding the Union together - and nothing else - then it’s already dead.
This sort of naked quasi-patriotic emotional blackmail really pisses off Leavers, and they can smell it a mile away.
So stop it.
Osborne is prepared to back Gove if he sticks to his pragmatic views on Brexit.
Gove's started to recant on the referendum, so I'd consider backing him.
There's a Tory MP that's publicly admitted to wanting to cut off Gove's dick, I'm just pointing out that Gove isn't as popular in the Parliamentary Party as he is on PB.
It’s very topical though, so unfortunately it’s full comedic appeal time limited, couldn’t extend that no matter how many billions you threw at it
By 11pm it will be Then again, and by midnight, Now.
The stolen referendum was most certainly thing. The no ifs not buts commitment by David Cameron to hold a referendum in the most read newspaper in the country. The rise of UKIP the lack of migration controls on the previous treaty. All fed into the ‘enough is enough’.
I take your word for it that you never said that Sean, but to be fair, finding any quote on Vanilla is harder than negotiating a Brexit deal when led by a team of numpties.
No Deal cannot be done without EUref2
We just re- signed a big contract in Belgium. Their guy just wants us to liaise with his shop floor guys over March and April that there will be enough in the system between us to cope with the odd delay (there will be, no issue).
And that is the sole time Brexit has yet impinged on us, and we export two thirds of our output. Adimittedly we are lucky the large majority is worldwide,not EU, but all this “ four horsemen of the apocalypse as a prelude to the slaughter of the first born” does your cause no good.
Pause.
So... how's that working out then?
I am beginning to think, extremely reluctantly, that he is the only way out of this mess.
I'd probably take a risk with Sajid Javid. But hustings with Boris also an option would be entertaining.
But for now, I'd have David Davis as an interim leader - to deliver the type of Brexit he was working on, before stomped on by May.