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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though third favourite, Bernie, will struggle to g
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though third favourite, Bernie, will struggle to get into the 2020 race
Even though the next US presidential election is more than two years away potential contenders, particularly on the Democratic side, are already going through the machinations of preparing for a run – first for the party nomination then for the Presidency itself.
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Really good slogan on the t shirt though.
I wonder if that's really true. Or rather, the party itself certainly wants the White House back, but it's the primaries which will determine the candidate, and getting primary voters to vote in a hard-headed way isn't easy.
Cortez's zany Corbynite politics will see her smashed out of the race pretty early.
His endorsement though, particularly if made early, has the potential to push a lesser-known left winger into the limelight.
Anyway, Sanders isn't going to get it.
https://twitter.com/UKDemockery/status/1053091402794573825
From a distance, I'm not convinced they have a clue as yet.
Ultimately Clinton was a flawed candidate with too much baggage. She was misadvised in the campaign and didn't have a positive enough message.
Mr Biden.
Perhaps the winning Democrat if there is to be one is someone relatively obscure.
When I were a lad we thought the future wasn't going to be a bucket of cold sick.
There was a lot to be done before serving A50, but he government rushed into it.
There is a genuine debate to be had about whether the Democrats are best pursuing the undecided middle, or concentrate on better turning out their base. (Of course the two things aren't entirely incompatible - health care concerns, for example, cut across the political divide.)
The former strategy might show better results in the swing states in the 'South' (Georgia, Florida and North Carolina) and the latter in the MidWest (Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin).
In terms of total electoral college votes, the Southern strategy wins.
But there is no reason a candidate like Harris can't compete in both sets of states.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/conservatives-mount-a-whisper-campaign-smearing-khashoggi-in-defense-of-trump/2018/10/18/feb92bd0-d306-11e8-b2d2-f397227b43f0_story.html
That still leaves the field wide open.
What you are saying is that she was gamed while consulting, little wonder the actual negotiations have turned out as they have done.
I agree with your second paragraph.
The point I was making is very simple. The election will be decided in a few states, probably the usual ones: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If they want to win, the Dems need a clear focus on what policies, and which candidate, will appeal in those states, and especially to white 'middle-class' (in UK terms, working-class and white-van man) male voters in those states. Everyone else they need to win is already on board,
In any event, I think you're likely wrong on this, though I'll concede there is a smallish risk that the Democrats pick an out and out radical.
What do you think of Harris' middle class tax credit proposal ?
(in electoral terms.)
Particularly if that inhibits everyone else turning out.
of Democratic advertising for the competitive seats in the New York tri-state area right now.
https://twitter.com/spencerstokestv/status/1052981336288432128
On the left-right axis, apparently the Sanders wing hasn't been performing particularly strongly in primaries, and his polling seems a bit weak given how high his name recognition is. I think Mike's right that the primary voters are going to want someone they think will win. If they're going to be left-wing, they shouldn't be off-putting-sounding-to-moderates left-wing.
But you also have to look at the feistiness axis, and I think the reality of campaigns in the social media age is that candidates need to be a little bit spikey and audacious. So I'm a bit skeptical that a paint-by-the-numbers generic democrat can make it through the primaries, particularly Kamala Harris, who has far and away the world's dullest twitter feed. A also think this applies to the general: In every election since at least 1980 and possibly earlier, the more audacious candidate has won.
The obvious candidates who are left after that are Elizabeth Warren and, if creepy photos with women don't do for him, Joe Biden. But I'd also keep an eye on Kirsten Gillibrand, who had always run as a moderate but seems edgy and ambitious.
(And the target market is more or less the demographic you suggest the Democrats go for.)
That said - I don't think she had fully understood the implications of all of her red lines - particularly on the ECJ.
Despite Brexit
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/18/trump-gianforte-body-slam-praise-915047
But he has studiously avoided acknowledging the brutal murder.
Not al Brexit specific comment
I expect there to be a lot more of this than the reverse, especially in the short term as banks grapple with unserviceable derivatives without a full subsidiary in London.
One of the reasons Clinton lost was that the 'rest of the coalition' didn't turn out for her in sufficient numbers.
Biden would be the best general election candidate but the signs are the Democrats will not accept another establishment centrist but may well go all out for a populist candidate they believe in.
Sanders did not endorse Ocasio-Cortez in her primary race so no surprise she has not yet endorsed him
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/10/14/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-bernie-sanders-2020/index.html
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/10/16/politics/julian-castro-interview-2020-bid-likely/index.html
Hilary Clinton struggled to get black voters out for instance. Latino turnout was flat when it should have been engaged.
Alternatively Hilary Clinton did much worse in rural areas. Trump is vulnerable there with his daft tariffs, his reversal of protections for family farms, his undermining of Obamacare...
On the point about Hillary struggling to get black voters out, that was always going to be difficult compared with the inspiration of having Obama on the ballot-paper. I'm not sure that that particular problem should be regarded as a failure on her part, except as a subset of her general failure of being seen as remote and in the pockets of (and even more important most at ease in the culture of) the rich elite.
In any event, if whoever it is can manage to refrain from attacking Republican voters, as opposed to Republican politicians, it ought to be worth a net million or so more votes over what Clinton managed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/19/tory-rightwingers-seek-to-embarrass-may-over-high-powered-rifles-ban?CMP=share_btn_tw
In the rejoin referendum there'll be no Russian interference and lots of pro EU content thanks to Nick.
If the Democrats win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan and hold the Hillary states they win the Presidency and those states had narrower Trump victory margins than Florida
/s