politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Doctors dispute: Betting opens on whether Hunt will survive
As the Junior Doctor furore continues, bookmakers William Hill have opened a market on whether Secretary of State for Health Jeremy Hunt will still be in his role on January 1, 2017.
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The Jeremy Hunt not to be Health Secretary bet does not appear to be available on the Hills website. Whether it is more than a PR stunt and they actually laid a tenner to someone on Twitter is not known.
I thought that the Govt's PR handling of this has been inept. For example, they let the BMA get away with disputing the advantages to patient safety from having more doctors working at weekends. The lesson from the miners strike was that a Govt needed to have built up stocks to defeat the strikes. Has anything been done to shore up the NHS? Such as front loading the recruitment of additional doctors or changing work patterns to reduce demand? Nothing that I can see.
'Does it matter who provides healthcare in the UK, if it remains free at the point of delivery?' (Assuming equivalent healthcare outcomes, cost and taxpayer value).
Or lets phrase it should we Privatise the NHS
On Topic Watfordtakemeback to 30's is in a massive minority
Did we not get told this morning that there was going to be a "major" cabinet reshuffle after the referendum? If so, there is every likelihood that Hunt will be moved, probably to something more significant, whether he "wins" this or not.
Evens is fairly tempting. Gove showed this leadership does not have unlimited willpower in bruising disputes with vested interests.
Did we not get told this morning that there was going to be a "major" cabinet reshuffle after the referendum? If so, there is every likelihood that Hunt will be moved, probably to something more significant, whether he "wins" this or not.
Evens is fairly tempting. Gove showed this leadership does not have unlimited willpower in bruising disputes with vested interests.
Ooh didn't know about that. Evens might be the move then. But I think it's probably a 5-6 the pair sort of bet.
Did we not get told this morning that there was going to be a "major" cabinet reshuffle after the referendum? If so, there is every likelihood that Hunt will be moved, probably to something more significant, whether he "wins" this or not.
Evens is fairly tempting. Gove showed this leadership does not have unlimited willpower in bruising disputes with vested interests.
Well the reshuffle is the risk, but I think Hunt needs to own this process (and related changes) until at least late 2017. I'd expect a new leader to move (promote?) Hunt.
Hunt may well back Leave. If Leave wins, Cameron is likely to resign and in such an election, leading Leavers will be very well placed. If Hunt can resolve the dispute on something like the government's terms, he'll do his reputation with members and MPs no end of good.
Three 'if's there but not all are necessary (a Leaver may still be in a good position if Remain wins), and I'd make the combination more than a 3.5% shot.
I thought that the Govt's PR handling of this has been inept. For example, they let the BMA get away with disputing the advantages to patient safety from having more doctors working at weekends. The lesson from the miners strike was that a Govt needed to have built up stocks to defeat the strikes. Has anything been done to shore up the NHS? Such as front loading the recruitment of additional doctors or changing work patterns to reduce demand? Nothing that I can see.
Timing. Any subsequent strikes are going to be in spring & summer.
German labour minister says the country will need to spend HALF A BILLION euros to integrate just ten per cent of its migrant arrivals into the job market...
BA (Germany's job agency ) boss Detlef Scheele said in an interview with the Sueddeutsche Zeitung: 'We should not have too many expectations.'
He added that if things went really well, in the first year of arrival maybe ten per cent of the refugees might end up with a job, and in five years it might be half.
He estimated that after 15 years, it could be around 70 per cent.
I thought that the Govt's PR handling of this has been inept. For example, they let the BMA get away with disputing the advantages to patient safety from having more doctors working at weekends. The lesson from the miners strike was that a Govt needed to have built up stocks to defeat the strikes. Has anything been done to shore up the NHS? Such as front loading the recruitment of additional doctors or changing work patterns to reduce demand? Nothing that I can see.
Timing. Any subsequent strikes are going to be in spring & summer.
Absolutely - this has been on the back burner over Winter JIC.
The time to challenge a politically motivated and self interested health care union is spring and summer.
'Does it matter who provides healthcare in the UK, if it remains free at the point of delivery?' (Assuming equivalent healthcare outcomes, cost and taxpayer value).
Or lets phrase it should we Privatise the NHS
On Topic Watfordtakemeback to 30's is in a massive minority
BJO in touch with the Public
It's a service not a religion.
Public/Private's good for me as long as it provides what it promises. And I doubt I'm in the minority.
Hunt may well back Leave. If Leave wins, Cameron is likely to resign and in such an election, leading Leavers will be very well placed. If Hunt can resolve the dispute on something like the government's terms, he'll do his reputation with members and MPs no end of good.
Three 'if's there but not all are necessary (a Leaver may still be in a good position if Remain wins), and I'd make the combination more than a 3.5% shot.
German labour minister says the country will need to spend HALF A BILLION euros to integrate just ten per cent of its migrant arrivals into the job market...
BA (Germany's job agency ) boss Detlef Scheele said in an interview with the Sueddeutsche Zeitung: 'We should not have too many expectations.'
He added that if things went really well, in the first year of arrival maybe ten per cent of the refugees might end up with a job, and in five years it might be half.
He estimated that after 15 years, it could be around 70 per cent.
German labour minister says the country will need to spend HALF A BILLION euros to integrate just ten per cent of its migrant arrivals into the job market...
BA (Germany's job agency ) boss Detlef Scheele said in an interview with the Sueddeutsche Zeitung: 'We should not have too many expectations.'
He added that if things went really well, in the first year of arrival maybe ten per cent of the refugees might end up with a job, and in five years it might be half.
He estimated that after 15 years, it could be around 70 per cent.
I thought that the Govt's PR handling of this has been inept. For example, they let the BMA get away with disputing the advantages to patient safety from having more doctors working at weekends. The lesson from the miners strike was that a Govt needed to have built up stocks to defeat the strikes. Has anything been done to shore up the NHS? Such as front loading the recruitment of additional doctors or changing work patterns to reduce demand? Nothing that I can see.
It is slightly more difficult to cold store doctors than tonnes of coal at power stations although a small experiment might be merited.
I have been reflecting on the figures BJO was quoting this morning. Something like 2/3 of doctors employed by the NHS are senior doctors (consultants etc.) Can anyone think of any other organisation that is so top heavy?
To take lawyers as an example I would estimate maybe 1/5 to 1/10 make partner, most of them only salaried.
'Does it matter who provides healthcare in the UK, if it remains free at the point of delivery?' (Assuming equivalent healthcare outcomes, cost and taxpayer value).
Or lets phrase it should we Privatise the NHS
On Topic Watfordtakemeback to 30's is in a massive minority
BJO in touch with the Public
It's a service not a religion.
Public/Private's good for me as long as it provides what it promises. And I doubt I'm in the minority.
Howls in touch with himself.
Watfordbackto30s read this thread the Public agree with me on the strike and who is responsible and not you
The polling suggests that Hunt is finding it hard to take public opinion with him.
Luckily government doesn't simply consist of doing what the opinion polls suggest (the Burnham approach). Otherwise we'd have hanging and British Rail.
Customer in Oban betting shop stakes £3000 at odds of 8/1 on Marco Rubio to be next US President. He's now 7/1 jt 3rd fav. #MarcoRubio2016
The mismatch between the stakes mentioned in William Hill PR releases and the amounts they actually seem to lay whenever anyone wants to place a bet is a never-ceasing wonder.
Stop any passerby in the street..any street..anywhere and ask..Do you think the NHS should provide a full seven day a week service...and the answer would be yes..
Customer in Oban betting shop stakes £3000 at odds of 8/1 on Marco Rubio to be next US President. He's now 7/1 jt 3rd fav. #MarcoRubio2016
The mismatch between the stakes mentioned in William Hill PR releases and the amounts they actually seem to lay whenever anyone wants to place a bet is a never-ceasing wonder.
I'm sure Hills will let you have as much as you like on Rubio POTUS at 7-1.
Customer in Oban betting shop stakes £3000 at odds of 8/1 on Marco Rubio to be next US President. He's now 7/1 jt 3rd fav. #MarcoRubio2016
The mismatch between the stakes mentioned in William Hill PR releases and the amounts they actually seem to lay whenever anyone wants to place a bet is a never-ceasing wonder.
Not really. Rubio is 11.0 on Betfair and 8/1 was not top price. Next President is a massive market unlike most of the ones we here play on.
Plus they are probably full of liabilities on Trump & Sanders.
Jeremy Hunt will not be moved until the end of the dispute with the doctors, and then not until a decent interval has elapsed. I'd therefore rather back the 8/11 than the evens with William Hill. I wouldn't bet the farm either way, mind.
Stop any passerby in the street..any street..anywhere and ask..Do you think the NHS should provide a full seven day a week service...and the answer would be yes..
And if you ask them, "should we do that by making the weekday service worse" they'll say no.
Customer in Oban betting shop stakes £3000 at odds of 8/1 on Marco Rubio to be next US President. He's now 7/1 jt 3rd fav. #MarcoRubio2016
The mismatch between the stakes mentioned in William Hill PR releases and the amounts they actually seem to lay whenever anyone wants to place a bet is a never-ceasing wonder.
Bookies offer too many markets in a desperate bid to be seen to be open all hours on everything... the ridiculous flipside of this is that they don't have any confidence in their odds and so refuse to lay a bet
Whilst being conscious that refugees are not exactly flavour of the month at the moment this is quite funny and uncannily similar to actual letters refusing claims by the Home Office: https://www.freemovement.org.uk/jesus-is-refused-asylum/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35552199 More than 97% of citizens would still be able to reach their required court "by car within an hour" after the closures, [the minister said]
What about by bus or train? How big are court car parks and are they free?
I thought that the Govt's PR handling of this has been inept. For example, they let the BMA get away with disputing the advantages to patient safety from having more doctors working at weekends. The lesson from the miners strike was that a Govt needed to have built up stocks to defeat the strikes. Has anything been done to shore up the NHS? Such as front loading the recruitment of additional doctors or changing work patterns to reduce demand? Nothing that I can see.
It is slightly more difficult to cold store doctors than tonnes of coal at power stations although a small experiment might be merited.
Ha ha. Seriously Front loading the recruitment of additional doctors. Changing work patterns to reduce demand. Charging Local Authorities £1,000 a day for every day after 7 days that a person ready to be released from hospital is still there. Introducing a £20 fine on all who miss an appointment. Setting up contracts with private providors to take on more work.
Customer in Oban betting shop stakes £3000 at odds of 8/1 on Marco Rubio to be next US President. He's now 7/1 jt 3rd fav. #MarcoRubio2016
The mismatch between the stakes mentioned in William Hill PR releases and the amounts they actually seem to lay whenever anyone wants to place a bet is a never-ceasing wonder.
Bookies offer too many markets in a desperate bid to be seen to be open all hours on everything... the ridiculous flipside of this is that they don't have any confidence in their odds and so refuse to lay a bet
The other flipside is that casual punters have never had it so good - a total mug would struggle to lose 5% (betting singles) with the firms offering BOG and 103% books on the Prem. In the past they'd have been losing 10%+ with tax on top.
Alistair..so you think a five day a week service is ok..I think it is too..as long as people do not fall seriously ill on a Friday night..or a Saturday and Sunday
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35552199 More than 97% of citizens would still be able to reach their required court "by car within an hour" after the closures, [the minister said]
What about by bus or train? How big are court car parks and are they free?
I am going to sound like a proper cold hearted Tory here.
But it is possible to avoid the need to visit a court.
Customer in Oban betting shop stakes £3000 at odds of 8/1 on Marco Rubio to be next US President. He's now 7/1 jt 3rd fav. #MarcoRubio2016
The mismatch between the stakes mentioned in William Hill PR releases and the amounts they actually seem to lay whenever anyone wants to place a bet is a never-ceasing wonder.
Bookies offer too many markets in a desperate bid to be seen to be open all hours on everything... the ridiculous flipside of this is that they don't have any confidence in their odds and so refuse to lay a bet
Customer in Oban betting shop stakes £3000 at odds of 8/1 on Marco Rubio to be next US President. He's now 7/1 jt 3rd fav. #MarcoRubio2016
The mismatch between the stakes mentioned in William Hill PR releases and the amounts they actually seem to lay whenever anyone wants to place a bet is a never-ceasing wonder.
Bookies offer too many markets in a desperate bid to be seen to be open all hours on everything... the ridiculous flipside of this is that they don't have any confidence in their odds and so refuse to lay a bet
The other flipside is that casual punters have never had it so good - a total mug would struggle to lose 5% (betting singles) with the firms offering BOG and 103% books on the Prem. In the past they'd have been losing 10%+ with tax on top.
Bookmakers are making so much from FOBTs nowadays that they can afford to be trigger-happy on blocking punters who might be sharks but probably mugs who got lucky or are following Pricewise.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35552199 More than 97% of citizens would still be able to reach their required court "by car within an hour" after the closures, [the minister said]
What about by bus or train? How big are court car parks and are they free?
I am going to sound like a proper cold hearted Tory here.
But it is possible to avoid the need to visit a court.
No one can impose a contract on anyone. If in my consulting business a client 'imposes' conditions that are unbearable, I walk away from the contract. If it is unpalatable but bearable, I suck it up unless I have better options.
The option to walk - or find better work elsewhere - is also available to junior doctors, and I truly hope some of them exercise it. For at least some, the well is so poisoned they should - for their own good as well as that of the NHS - no longer work in the NHS.
I say this not out of any animus towards the doctors. But we all have to live in the world as it is, and we can't pretend for ever that the world is different for the NHS.
Customer in Oban betting shop stakes £3000 at odds of 8/1 on Marco Rubio to be next US President. He's now 7/1 jt 3rd fav. #MarcoRubio2016
The mismatch between the stakes mentioned in William Hill PR releases and the amounts they actually seem to lay whenever anyone wants to place a bet is a never-ceasing wonder.
Bookies offer too many markets in a desperate bid to be seen to be open all hours on everything... the ridiculous flipside of this is that they don't have any confidence in their odds and so refuse to lay a bet
The other flipside is that casual punters have never had it so good - a total mug would struggle to lose 5% (betting singles) with the firms offering BOG and 103% books on the Prem. In the past they'd have been losing 10%+ with tax on top.
Well according to the article I linked to, casual punters aren't having that good... and total mugs don't bet singles on rock solid markets as you well know!
My mates are mostly total mugs and all they bet on are correct score/player to score/accas etc as advertised on the Ladbrokes life
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35552199 More than 97% of citizens would still be able to reach their required court "by car within an hour" after the closures, [the minister said]
What about by bus or train? How big are court car parks and are they free?
I am going to sound like a proper cold hearted Tory here.
But it is possible to avoid the need to visit a court.
Alistair..so you think a five day a week service is ok..I think it is too..as long as people do not fall seriously ill on a Friday night..or a Saturday and Sunday
Customer in Oban betting shop stakes £3000 at odds of 8/1 on Marco Rubio to be next US President. He's now 7/1 jt 3rd fav. #MarcoRubio2016
The mismatch between the stakes mentioned in William Hill PR releases and the amounts they actually seem to lay whenever anyone wants to place a bet is a never-ceasing wonder.
Bookies offer too many markets in a desperate bid to be seen to be open all hours on everything... the ridiculous flipside of this is that they don't have any confidence in their odds and so refuse to lay a bet
The other flipside is that casual punters have never had it so good - a total mug would struggle to lose 5% (betting singles) with the firms offering BOG and 103% books on the Prem. In the past they'd have been losing 10%+ with tax on top.
All the TV commercials seem to be about getting people to back big ACCAs. Those must be nice enough to lay, especially in football with your average punter... and no chance of "related stable contingency" as you can sometimes get in the horses.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35552199 More than 97% of citizens would still be able to reach their required court "by car within an hour" after the closures, [the minister said]
What about by bus or train? How big are court car parks and are they free?
I am going to sound like a proper cold hearted Tory here.
But it is possible to avoid the need to visit a court.
Totally
For one's entire life.
What about if you are a witness?
Good point - but how many people does that really impact nowadays?
Customer in Oban betting shop stakes £3000 at odds of 8/1 on Marco Rubio to be next US President. He's now 7/1 jt 3rd fav. #MarcoRubio2016
The mismatch between the stakes mentioned in William Hill PR releases and the amounts they actually seem to lay whenever anyone wants to place a bet is a never-ceasing wonder.
Bookies offer too many markets in a desperate bid to be seen to be open all hours on everything... the ridiculous flipside of this is that they don't have any confidence in their odds and so refuse to lay a bet
More like a lecture in the crucial differences between apples and oranges. Greek banks went down because the Greek State had no money to prop them up. Germany really doesn't have that problem.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35552199 More than 97% of citizens would still be able to reach their required court "by car within an hour" after the closures, [the minister said]
What about by bus or train? How big are court car parks and are they free?
I am going to sound like a proper cold hearted Tory here.
But it is possible to avoid the need to visit a court.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35552199 More than 97% of citizens would still be able to reach their required court "by car within an hour" after the closures, [the minister said]
What about by bus or train? How big are court car parks and are they free?
I am going to sound like a proper cold hearted Tory here.
But it is possible to avoid the need to visit a court.
I thought that the Govt's PR handling of this has been inept. For example, they let the BMA get away with disputing the advantages to patient safety from having more doctors working at weekends. The lesson from the miners strike was that a Govt needed to have built up stocks to defeat the strikes. Has anything been done to shore up the NHS? Such as front loading the recruitment of additional doctors or changing work patterns to reduce demand? Nothing that I can see.
Timing. Any subsequent strikes are going to be in spring & summer.
Good point. That said I heard on radio this AM (R4) that the profile of use of the A&E was changing and there was a greater incidence of use in the summer than several years ago. The NHS has less quiet periods.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35552199 More than 97% of citizens would still be able to reach their required court "by car within an hour" after the closures, [the minister said]
What about by bus or train? How big are court car parks and are they free?
I am going to sound like a proper cold hearted Tory here.
But it is possible to avoid the need to visit a court.
Totally
For one's entire life.
Not entirely by one's own actions without the intervention of luck. There are many frivolous cases brought against innocent businesses, service providers and consultants which are out of one's own control to avoid.
In Philadelphia, there is an industry of customers having 'falls' in restaurants. We had one within the first week of opening. Thankfully, we had installed video cameras covering all the public areas (obviously not bathrooms), and that case went away pronto. And then we had a cook steal the night's take. Again court on camera. I suppose I could have avoided these court appearances by not having a business, but I don't think that is a recommended course of action.
And then there is jury duty and serving as a witness if so required (as in when someone rear-ended me at high speed).
I seem to recall from watching the Big Short that Deutsche were up to the necks in the sub-prime CDO carry-on.
If Deutsche Bank goes down, it will go down in the same way RBS did, only with the German taxpayer bailing it out rather than the UK one.
I'd also point out one other thing that suggests outright bankruptcy is unlikely. When RBS went into the subprime / GFC / Eurozone crisis, it had core tier one capital of (what) 3.5%. Deutsche Bank's core tier one is 13.2%, that's four times as much.
That doesn't mean it won't go bust (all things are possible), but it does mean it has an awful lot more equity to burn through before it needs the state to step in than RBS did.
Customer in Oban betting shop stakes £3000 at odds of 8/1 on Marco Rubio to be next US President. He's now 7/1 jt 3rd fav. #MarcoRubio2016
The mismatch between the stakes mentioned in William Hill PR releases and the amounts they actually seem to lay whenever anyone wants to place a bet is a never-ceasing wonder.
To be fair, if I was advising William Hill, I'd be more than happy for them to lay that bet.
Stop any passerby in the street..any street..anywhere and ask..Do you think the NHS should provide a full seven day a week service...and the answer would be yes..
And if you ask them, "should we do that by making the weekday service worse" they'll say no.
Would it be worse? Why? If the service were 7 days then arguably there would be less pressure on the current 5. And if you ask them, "would you like to continue to be given inferior treatment on weekends?" what would the answer be?
A problem the NHS has is that it allows families to continue to ignore their responsibilities to sick relatives and thus is struggles to discharge people who no longer require hospital treatment.
No one can impose a contract on anyone. If in my consulting business a client 'imposes' conditions that are unbearable, I walk away from the contract. If it is unpalatable but bearable, I suck it up unless I have better options.
The option to walk - or find better work elsewhere - is also available to junior doctors, and I truly hope some of them exercise it. For at least some, the well is so poisoned they should - for their own good as well as that of the NHS - no longer work in the NHS.
I say this not out of any animus towards the doctors. But we all have to live in the world as it is, and we can't pretend for ever that the world is different for the NHS.
You can't impose a contract on a person in that they do indeed have the option to walk away, but you can impose new terms and conditions on a workforce as a condition of employment.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35552199 More than 97% of citizens would still be able to reach their required court "by car within an hour" after the closures, [the minister said]
What about by bus or train? How big are court car parks and are they free?
I am going to sound like a proper cold hearted Tory here.
But it is possible to avoid the need to visit a court.
Totally
For one's entire life.
Not entirely by one's own actions without the intervention of luck. There are many frivolous cases brought against innocent businesses, service providers and consultants which are out of one's own control to avoid.
In Philadelphia, there is an industry of customers having 'falls' in restaurants. We had one within the first week of opening. Thankfully, we had installed video cameras covering all the public areas (obviously not bathrooms), and that case went away pronto. And then we had a cook steal the night's take. Again court on camera. I suppose I could have avoided these court appearances by not having a business, but I don't think that is a recommended course of action.
And then there is jury duty and serving as a witness if so required (as in when someone rear-ended me at high speed).
Actually that last point about jury duty is a very good one. I take back my cold hearted Toryness.
I seem to recall from watching the Big Short that Deutsche were up to the necks in the sub-prime CDO carry-on.
If Deutsche Bank goes down, it will go down in the same way RBS did, only with the German taxpayer bailing it out rather than the UK one.
I'd also point out one other thing that suggests outright bankruptcy is unlikely. When RBS went into the subprime / GFC / Eurozone crisis, it had core tier one capital of (what) 3.5%. Deutsche Bank's core tier one is 13.2%, that's four times as much.
That doesn't mean it won't go bust (all things are possible), but it does mean it has an awful lot more equity to burn through before it needs the state to step in than RBS did.
@hunchman would be pointing out to you that the underlying assumption there is that the gilts etc that tier 1 is made up of is actually worth something. Of course if its not Deutsche Bank is the least of our problems.
Customer in Oban betting shop stakes £3000 at odds of 8/1 on Marco Rubio to be next US President. He's now 7/1 jt 3rd fav. #MarcoRubio2016
The mismatch between the stakes mentioned in William Hill PR releases and the amounts they actually seem to lay whenever anyone wants to place a bet is a never-ceasing wonder.
Bookies offer too many markets in a desperate bid to be seen to be open all hours on everything... the ridiculous flipside of this is that they don't have any confidence in their odds and so refuse to lay a bet
The other flipside is that casual punters have never had it so good - a total mug would struggle to lose 5% (betting singles) with the firms offering BOG and 103% books on the Prem. In the past they'd have been losing 10%+ with tax on top.
Well according to the article I linked to, casual punters aren't having that good... and total mugs don't bet singles on rock solid markets as you well know!
My mates are mostly total mugs and all they bet on are correct score/player to score/accas etc as advertised on the Ladbrokes life
Well much easier to go wrong at bigger prices obviously - but even then just comparing across one or two bookies would help immensely. And the accas still benefit from the 103% stuff (and some companies have good bonuses on them too).
The restrictions obviously get shrewdies' backs up but the prices (or even the markets) wouldn't be there in the first place if they had to be laid to £500 for everyone.
As an aside, I once did some consultancy with the Greek national betting company - they were targeting 40% gross win on their football coupon. Everything was priced to 120% and minimum fourfolds!
Customer in Oban betting shop stakes £3000 at odds of 8/1 on Marco Rubio to be next US President. He's now 7/1 jt 3rd fav. #MarcoRubio2016
The mismatch between the stakes mentioned in William Hill PR releases and the amounts they actually seem to lay whenever anyone wants to place a bet is a never-ceasing wonder.
Bookies offer too many markets in a desperate bid to be seen to be open all hours on everything... the ridiculous flipside of this is that they don't have any confidence in their odds and so refuse to lay a bet
Customer in Oban betting shop stakes £3000 at odds of 8/1 on Marco Rubio to be next US President. He's now 7/1 jt 3rd fav. #MarcoRubio2016
The mismatch between the stakes mentioned in William Hill PR releases and the amounts they actually seem to lay whenever anyone wants to place a bet is a never-ceasing wonder.
Bookies offer too many markets in a desperate bid to be seen to be open all hours on everything... the ridiculous flipside of this is that they don't have any confidence in their odds and so refuse to lay a bet
The other flipside is that casual punters have never had it so good - a total mug would struggle to lose 5% (betting singles) with the firms offering BOG and 103% books on the Prem. In the past they'd have been losing 10%+ with tax on top.
All the TV commercials seem to be about getting people to back big ACCAs. Those must be nice enough to lay, especially in football with your average punter... and no chance of "related stable contingency" as you can sometimes get in the horses.
Yes, but the below eats into the margin quite considerably!
Customer in Oban betting shop stakes £3000 at odds of 8/1 on Marco Rubio to be next US President. He's now 7/1 jt 3rd fav. #MarcoRubio2016
The mismatch between the stakes mentioned in William Hill PR releases and the amounts they actually seem to lay whenever anyone wants to place a bet is a never-ceasing wonder.
Bookies offer too many markets in a desperate bid to be seen to be open all hours on everything... the ridiculous flipside of this is that they don't have any confidence in their odds and so refuse to lay a bet
The other flipside is that casual punters have never had it so good - a total mug would struggle to lose 5% (betting singles) with the firms offering BOG and 103% books on the Prem. In the past they'd have been losing 10%+ with tax on top.
Well according to the article I linked to, casual punters aren't having that good... and total mugs don't bet singles on rock solid markets as you well know!
My mates are mostly total mugs and all they bet on are correct score/player to score/accas etc as advertised on the Ladbrokes life
Well much easier to go wrong at bigger prices obviously - but even then just comparing across one or two bookies would help immensely. And the accas still benefit from the 103% stuff (and some companies have good bonuses on them too).
The restrictions obviously get shrewdies' backs up but the prices wouldn't be there if they had to be laid to £500 for everyone.
As an aside, I once did some consultancy with the Greek national betting company - they were targeting 40% gross win on their football coupon. Everything was priced to 120% and minimum fourfolds!
What you are saying is almost "if mug punters bet like shrewdies they'd be ok"! V few people bother having more than one account (if any) and even fewer use oddschecker
I am past caring now to be honest, I accept my lot and get on with it. I no longer look at a winner that I would have backed big and get the hump
The Greek Govt have got nothing on the HKJC monopoly... taking best price is a criminal offence there
''If Deutsche Bank goes down, it will go down in the same way RBS did, only with the German taxpayer bailing it out rather than the UK one.''
Its not clear to me what is really threatening DB's viability. I read the term 'litigation' bandied around a lot, surely the regulators can't be fining their way into a financial crisis?
Comments
Another Osborne omnishambles may be about to start.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dd977e7e-d0b2-11e5-92a1-c5e23ef99c77.html#axzz3zn2T9GtY
Here's a question for the general public -
'Does it matter who provides healthcare in the UK, if it remains free at the point of delivery?' (Assuming equivalent healthcare outcomes, cost and taxpayer value).
Or lets phrase it should we Privatise the NHS
On Topic Watfordtakemeback to 30's is in a massive minority
BJO in touch with the Public
Evens is fairly tempting. Gove showed this leadership does not have unlimited willpower in bruising disputes with vested interests.
So UKIP can debate directly with UKIP in kilts...
Hunt may well back Leave.
If Leave wins, Cameron is likely to resign and in such an election, leading Leavers will be very well placed.
If Hunt can resolve the dispute on something like the government's terms, he'll do his reputation with members and MPs no end of good.
Three 'if's there but not all are necessary (a Leaver may still be in a good position if Remain wins), and I'd make the combination more than a 3.5% shot.
Strongly support + tend to support in Jan: 66% - in Feb: 66%
Tend to oppose + strongly oppose in Jan: 15% - in Feb: 22%
BA (Germany's job agency ) boss Detlef Scheele said in an interview with the Sueddeutsche Zeitung: 'We should not have too many expectations.'
He added that if things went really well, in the first year of arrival maybe ten per cent of the refugees might end up with a job, and in five years it might be half.
He estimated that after 15 years, it could be around 70 per cent.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3442119/German-labour-minister-says-country-need-spend-HALF-BILLION-euros-integrate-just-ten-cent-migrant-arrivals-job-market.html
The time to challenge a politically motivated and self interested health care union is spring and summer.
Public/Private's good for me as long as it provides what it promises. And I doubt I'm in the minority.
Howls in touch with himself.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/06/29/why-you-should-be-backing-jeremy-hunt-as-next-pm/
Doesn't sound that much to be honest.
The government says it will take stronger measures to pursue people - including those living overseas - who are believed to be avoiding repayment.
http://www.bbc.com/news/education-35549236
Good luck with that...
I have been reflecting on the figures BJO was quoting this morning. Something like 2/3 of doctors employed by the NHS are senior doctors (consultants etc.) Can anyone think of any other organisation that is so top heavy?
To take lawyers as an example I would estimate maybe 1/5 to 1/10 make partner, most of them only salaried.
Customer in Oban betting shop stakes £3000 at odds of 8/1 on Marco Rubio to be next US President. He's now 7/1 jt 3rd fav. #MarcoRubio2016
Luckily government doesn't simply consist of doing what the opinion polls suggest (the Burnham approach). Otherwise we'd have hanging and British Rail.
Plus they are probably full of liabilities on Trump & Sanders.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11571601/Pensioner-places-30000-bet-on-Conservative-majority-at-general-election.html
Who is more to blame for the doctors' strike?
Jeremy Hunt - 92%
Junior doctors - 5%
Both - 3%
I voted Both just to be contrary!!
I am still Red on Trump but small stakes Green on rest.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35552199
And given more people will want a full 7 day NHS service, it is enough for a Govt win.
To go before the reforms are through should not happen.
Interesting article today
https://www.gamblinginsider.com/in-depth/1765/betting-account-restrictions-winners-unwelcome
Care to comment that momentum seems to be swinging behind the Govt?
https://www.freemovement.org.uk/jesus-is-refused-asylum/
https://twitter.com/RutledgeWood/status/695252469727784960
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35552199
More than 97% of citizens would still be able to reach their required court "by car within an hour" after the closures, [the minister said]
What about by bus or train? How big are court car parks and are they free?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/if-deutsche-bank-collapses-its-taking-the-euro-with-it/
What happens next is crucial Hunt has played his final card if the Doctors Trump it by refusing to change Contracts and the patients suffer.
Hunt is a busted flush.
Seriously
Front loading the recruitment of additional doctors.
Changing work patterns to reduce demand.
Charging Local Authorities £1,000 a day for every day after 7 days that a person ready to be released from hospital is still there.
Introducing a £20 fine on all who miss an appointment.
Setting up contracts with private providors to take on more work.
But it is possible to avoid the need to visit a court.
Totally
For one's entire life.
No one can impose a contract on anyone. If in my consulting business a client 'imposes' conditions that are unbearable, I walk away from the contract. If it is unpalatable but bearable, I suck it up unless I have better options.
The option to walk - or find better work elsewhere - is also available to junior doctors, and I truly hope some of them exercise it. For at least some, the well is so poisoned they should - for their own good as well as that of the NHS - no longer work in the NHS.
I say this not out of any animus towards the doctors. But we all have to live in the world as it is, and we can't pretend for ever that the world is different for the NHS.
My mates are mostly total mugs and all they bet on are correct score/player to score/accas etc as advertised on the Ladbrokes life
Which definition of courageous are you using? Along the lines of "that's an interesting proposal"?
That said I heard on radio this AM (R4) that the profile of use of the A&E was changing and there was a greater incidence of use in the summer than several years ago. The NHS has less quiet periods.
In Philadelphia, there is an industry of customers having 'falls' in restaurants. We had one within the first week of opening. Thankfully, we had installed video cameras covering all the public areas (obviously not bathrooms), and that case went away pronto. And then we had a cook steal the night's take. Again court on camera. I suppose I could have avoided these court appearances by not having a business, but I don't think that is a recommended course of action.
And then there is jury duty and serving as a witness if so required (as in when someone rear-ended me at high speed).
I'd also point out one other thing that suggests outright bankruptcy is unlikely. When RBS went into the subprime / GFC / Eurozone crisis, it had core tier one capital of (what) 3.5%. Deutsche Bank's core tier one is 13.2%, that's four times as much.
That doesn't mean it won't go bust (all things are possible), but it does mean it has an awful lot more equity to burn through before it needs the state to step in than RBS did.
And if you ask them, "would you like to continue to be given inferior treatment on weekends?" what would the answer be?
A problem the NHS has is that it allows families to continue to ignore their responsibilities to sick relatives and thus is struggles to discharge people who no longer require hospital treatment.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-35524440
The restrictions obviously get shrewdies' backs up but the prices (or even the markets) wouldn't be there in the first place if they had to be laid to £500 for everyone.
As an aside, I once did some consultancy with the Greek national betting company - they were targeting 40% gross win on their football coupon. Everything was priced to 120% and minimum fourfolds!
Possibly all about reception, but your comments do seem to have far more dry wit since your avatar became rather more Russian!
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See the Government Response to the Political and Constitutional Reform Committee’s Eighth Report of Session 2014-15 (just published):
"What next on the redrawing of parliamentary constituency boundaries?"
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/499661/53993_Cm_9203_Print_Ready.pdf
I am past caring now to be honest, I accept my lot and get on with it. I no longer look at a winner that I would have backed big and get the hump
The Greek Govt have got nothing on the HKJC monopoly... taking best price is a criminal offence there
Its not clear to me what is really threatening DB's viability. I read the term 'litigation' bandied around a lot, surely the regulators can't be fining their way into a financial crisis?